Search

Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual’s blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of this model to predict the effects of planning policies for screening operations. Our analysis yields an analytical expression for the screening frequency required to reach eradication (zero prevalence) and a simple approach for determining the frequency required to reach elimination within a given time frame (one case per 10000). Furthermore, the model predictions suggest that annual screening is only expected to lead to eradication if at least half of the cases are detected during the screening rounds. This paper extends knowledge on control strategies for HAT and serves as a basis for further modeling and optimization studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By integrating Haar wavelets with Hidden Markov Models, we achieve drastically reduced running times for Bayesian inference using Forward-Backward Gibbs sampling. We show that this improves detection of genomic copy number variants (CNV) in array CGH experiments compared to the state-of-the-art, including standard Gibbs sampling. The method concentrates computational effort on chromosomal segments which are difficult to call, by dynamically and adaptively recomputing consecutive blocks of observations likely to share a copy number. This makes routine diagnostic use and re-analysis of legacy data collections feasible; to this end, we also propose an effective automatic prior. An open source software implementation of our method is available at (DOI: ). This paper was selected for oral presentation at RECOMB 2016, and an abstract is published in the conference proceedings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer driver genes, i.e., oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes, are involved in the acquisition of important functions in tumors, providing a selective growth advantage, allowing uncontrolled proliferation and avoiding apoptosis. It is therefore important to identify these driver genes, both for the fundamental understanding of cancer and to help finding new therapeutic targets or biomarkers. Although the most frequently mutated driver genes have been identified, it is believed that many more remain to be discovered, particularly for driver genes specific to some cancer types. In this paper, we propose a new computational method called LOTUS to predict new driver genes. LOTUS is a machine-learning based approach which allows to integrate various types of data in a versatile manner, including information about gene mutations and protein-protein interactions. In addition, LOTUS can predict cancer driver genes in a pan-cancer setting as well as for specific cancer types, using a multitask learning strategy to share information across cancer types. We empirically show that LOTUS outperforms five other state-of-the-art driver gene prediction methods, both in terms of intrinsic consistency and prediction accuracy, and provide predictions of new cancer genes across many cancer types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain distributions of parameters that can better guard against misinterpretation of results, as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a ‘healthy’ and ‘impaired’ state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal in researching the biology of olfaction is to link the perception of smells to the chemistry of odorants. In other words, why do some odorants smell like fruits and others like flowers? While the so-called stimulus-percept issue was resolved in the field of color vision some time ago, the relationship between the chemistry and psycho-biology of odors remains unclear up to the present day. Although a series of investigations have demonstrated that this relationship exists, the descriptive and explicative aspects of the proposed models that are currently in use require greater sophistication. One reason for this is that the algorithms of current models do not consistently consider the possibility that multiple chemical rules can describe a single quality despite the fact that this is the case in reality, whereby two very different molecules can evoke a similar odor. Moreover, the available datasets are often large and heterogeneous, thus rendering the generation of multiple rules without any use of a computational approach overly complex. We considered these two issues in the present paper. First, we built a new database containing 1689 odorants characterized by physicochemical properties and olfactory qualities. Second, we developed a computational method based on a subgroup discovery algorithm that discriminated perceptual qualities of smells on the basis of physicochemical properties. Third, we ran a series of experiments on 74 distinct olfactory qualities and showed that the generation and validation of rules linking chemistry to odor perception was possible. Taken together, our findings provide significant new insights into the relationship between stimulus and percept in olfaction. In addition, by automatically extracting new knowledge linking chemistry of odorants and psychology of smells, our results provide a new computational framework of analysis enabling scientists in the field to test original hypotheses using descriptive or predictive modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging evidence has shown microRNAs (miRNAs) play an important role in human disease research. Identifying potential association among them is significant for the development of pathology, diagnose and therapy. However, only a tiny portion of all miRNA-disease pairs in the current datasets are experimentally validated. This prompts the development of high-precision computational methods to predict real interaction pairs. In this paper, we propose a new model of Logistic Model Tree for predicting miRNA-Disease Association (LMTRDA) by fusing multi-source information including miRNA sequences, miRNA functional similarity, disease semantic similarity, and known miRNA-disease associations. In particular, we introduce miRNA sequence information and extract its features using natural language processing technique for the first time in the miRNA-disease prediction model. In the cross-validation experiment, LMTRDA obtained 90.51% prediction accuracy with 92.55% sensitivity at the AUC of 90.54% on the HMDD V3.0 dataset. To further evaluate the performance of LMTRDA, we compared it with different classifier and feature descriptor models. In addition, we also validate the predictive ability of LMTRDA in human diseases including Breast Neoplasms, Breast Neoplasms and Lymphoma. As a result, 28, 27 and 26 out of the top 30 miRNAs associated with these diseases were verified by experiments in different kinds of case studies. These experimental results demonstrate that LMTRDA is a reliable model for predicting the association among miRNAs and diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robustly predicting outcome for cancer patients from gene expression is an important challenge on the road to better personalized treatment. Network-based outcome predictors (NOPs), which considers the cellular wiring diagram in the classification, hold much promise to improve performance, stability and interpretability of identified marker genes. Problematically, reports on the efficacy of NOPs are conflicting and for instance suggest that utilizing random networks performs on par to networks that describe biologically relevant interactions. In this paper we turn the prediction problem around: instead of using a given biological network in the NOP, we aim to identify the network of genes that truly improves outcome prediction. To this end, we propose SyNet, a gene network constructed ab initio from synergistic gene pairs derived from survival-labelled gene expression data. To obtain SyNet, we evaluate synergy for all 69 million pairwise combinations of genes resulting in a network that is specific to the dataset and phenotype under study and can be used to in a NOP model. We evaluated SyNet and 11 other networks on a compendium dataset of >4000 survival-labelled breast cancer samples. For this purpose, we used cross-study validation which more closely emulates real world application of these outcome predictors. We find that SyNet is the only network that truly improves performance, stability and interpretability in several existing NOPs. We show that SyNet overlaps significantly with existing gene networks, and can be confidently predicted (~85% AUC) from graph-topological descriptions of these networks, in particular the breast tissue-specific network. Due to its data-driven nature, SyNet is not biased to well-studied genes and thus facilitates post-hoc interpretation. We find that SyNet is highly enriched for known breast cancer genes and genes related to e.g. histological grade and tamoxifen resistance, suggestive of a role in determining breast cancer outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LncRNA-protein interactions play important roles in post-transcriptional gene regulation, poly-adenylation, splicing and translation. Identification of lncRNA-protein interactions helps to understand lncRNA-related activities. Existing computational methods utilize multiple lncRNA features or multiple protein features to predict lncRNA-protein interactions, but features are not available for all lncRNAs or proteins; most of existing methods are not capable of predicting interacting proteins (or lncRNAs) for new lncRNAs (or proteins), which don’t have known interactions. In this paper, we propose the sequence-based feature projection ensemble learning method, “SFPEL-LPI”, to predict lncRNA-protein interactions. First, SFPEL-LPI extracts lncRNA sequence-based features and protein sequence-based features. Second, SFPEL-LPI calculates multiple lncRNA-lncRNA similarities and protein-protein similarities by using lncRNA sequences, protein sequences and known lncRNA-protein interactions. Then, SFPEL-LPI combines multiple similarities and multiple features with a feature projection ensemble learning frame. In computational experiments, SFPEL-LPI accurately predicts lncRNA-protein associations and outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. More importantly, SFPEL-LPI can be applied to new lncRNAs (or proteins). The case studies demonstrate that our method can find out novel lncRNA-protein interactions, which are confirmed by literature. Finally, we construct a user-friendly web server, available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B cells develop high affinity receptors during the course of affinity maturation, a cyclic process of mutation and selection. At the end of affinity maturation, a number of cells sharing the same ancestor (i.e. in the same “clonal family”) are released from the germinal center; their amino acid frequency profile reflects the allowed and disallowed substitutions at each position. These clonal-family-specific frequency profiles, called “substitution profiles”, are useful for studying the course of affinity maturation as well as for antibody engineering purposes. However, most often only a single sequence is recovered from each clonal family in a sequencing experiment, making it impossible to construct a clonal-family-specific substitution profile. Given the public release of many high-quality large B cell receptor datasets, one may ask whether it is possible to use such data in a prediction model for clonal-family-specific substitution profiles. In this paper, we present the method “Substitution Profiles Using Related Families” (SPURF), a penalized tensor regression framework that integrates information from a rich assemblage of datasets to predict the clonal-family-specific substitution profile for any single input sequence. Using this framework, we show that substitution profiles from similar clonal families can be leveraged together with simulated substitution profiles and germline gene sequence information to improve prediction. We fit this model on a large public dataset and validate the robustness of our approach on two external datasets. Furthermore, we provide a command-line tool in an open-source software package () implementing these ideas and providing easy prediction using our pre-fit models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a current interest in quantifying time-varying connectivity (TVC) based on neuroimaging data such as fMRI. Many methods have been proposed, and are being applied, revealing new insight into the brain’s dynamics. However, given that the ground truth for TVC in the brain is unknown, many concerns remain regarding the accuracy of proposed estimates. Since there exist many TVC methods it is difficult to assess differences in time-varying connectivity between studies. In this paper, we present tvc_benchmarker, which is a Python package containing four simulations to test TVC methods. Here, we evaluate five different methods that together represent a wide spectrum of current approaches to estimating TVC (sliding window, tapered sliding window, multiplication of temporal derivatives, spatial distance and jackknife correlation). These simulations were designed to test each method’s ability to track changes in covariance over time, which is a key property in TVC analysis. We found that all tested methods correlated positively with each other, but there were large differences in the strength of the correlations between methods. To facilitate comparisons with future TVC methods, we propose that the described simulations can act as benchmark tests for evaluation of methods. Using tvc_benchmarker researchers can easily add, compare and submit their own TVC methods to evaluate its performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the development of new classes of antibiotics slows, bacterial resistance to existing antibiotics is becoming an increasing problem. A potential solution is to develop treatment strategies with an alternative mode of action. We consider one such strategy: anti-adhesion therapy. Whereas antibiotics act directly upon bacteria, either killing them or inhibiting their growth, anti-adhesion therapy impedes the binding of bacteria to host cells. This prevents bacteria from deploying their arsenal of virulence mechanisms, while simultaneously rendering them more susceptible to natural and artificial clearance. In this paper, we consider a particular form of anti-adhesion therapy, involving biomimetic multivalent adhesion molecule 7 coupled polystyrene microbeads, which competitively inhibit the binding of bacteria to host cells. We develop a mathematical model, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations, to describe inhibitor treatment of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa burn wound infection in the rat. Benchmarking our model against in vivo data from an ongoing experimental programme, we use the model to explain bacteria population dynamics and to predict the efficacy of a range of treatment strategies, with the aim of improving treatment outcome. The model consists of two physical compartments: the host cells and the exudate. It is found that, when effective in reducing the bacterial burden, inhibitor treatment operates both by preventing bacteria from binding to the host cells and by reducing the flux of daughter cells from the host cells into the exudate. Our model predicts that inhibitor treatment cannot eliminate the bacterial burden when used in isolation; however, when combined with regular or continuous debridement of the exudate, elimination is theoretically possible. Lastly, we present ways to improve therapeutic efficacy, as predicted by our mathematical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-throughput data generation platforms, like mass-spectrometry, microarrays, and second-generation sequencing are susceptible to batch effects due to run-to-run variation in reagents, equipment, protocols, or personnel. Currently, batch correction methods are not commonly applied to microbiome sequencing datasets. In this paper, we compare different batch-correction methods applied to microbiome case-control studies. We introduce a model-free normalization procedure where features (i.e. bacterial taxa) in case samples are converted to percentiles of the equivalent features in control samples within a study prior to pooling data across studies. We look at how this percentile-normalization method compares to traditional meta-analysis methods for combining independent p-values and to limma and ComBat, widely used batch-correction models developed for RNA microarray data. Overall, we show that percentile-normalization is a simple, non-parametric approach for correcting batch effects and improving sensitivity in case-control meta-analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we compared the efficacy of observation based modeling approach using a genetic algorithm with the regular statistical analysis as an alternative methodology in plant research. Preliminary experimental data on in vitro rooting was taken for this study with an aim to understand the effect of charcoal and naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) on successful rooting and also to optimize the two variables for maximum result. Observation-based modelling, as well as traditional approach, could identify NAA as a critical factor in rooting of the plantlets under the experimental conditions employed. Symbolic regression analysis using the software deployed here optimised the treatments studied and was successful in identifying the complex non-linear interaction among the variables, with minimalistic preliminary data. The presence of charcoal in the culture medium has a significant impact on root generation by reducing basal callus mass formation. Such an approach is advantageous for establishing in vitro culture protocols as these models will have significant potential for saving time and expenditure in plant tissue culture laboratories, and it further reduces the need for specialised background. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) in microbial organisms have the potential to vastly improve the way we understand, manage, and treat infectious diseases. Yet, microbial GWAS methods established thus far remain insufficiently able to capitalise on the growing wealth of bacterial and viral genetic sequence data. Facing clonal population structure and homologous recombination, existing GWAS methods struggle to achieve both the precision necessary to reject spurious findings and the power required to detect associations in microbes. In this paper, we introduce a novel phylogenetic approach that has been tailor-made for microbial GWAS, which is applicable to organisms ranging from purely clonal to frequently recombining, and to both binary and continuous phenotypes. Our approach is robust to the confounding effects of both population structure and recombination, while maintaining high statistical power to detect associations. Thorough testing via application to simulated data provides strong support for the power and specificity of our approach and demonstrates the advantages offered over alternative cluster-based and dimension-reduction methods. Two applications to Neisseria meningitidis illustrate the versatility and potential of our method, confirming previously-identified penicillin resistance loci and resulting in the identification of both well-characterised and novel drivers of invasive disease. Our method is implemented as an open-source R package called treeWAS which is freely available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complex disease has, by definition, multiple genetic causes. In theory, these causes could be identified individually, but their identification will likely benefit from informed use of anticipated interactions between causes. In addition, characterizing and understanding interactions must be considered key to revealing the etiology of any complex disease. Large-scale collaborative efforts are now paving the way for comprehensive studies of interaction. As a consequence, there is a need for methods with a computational efficiency sufficient for modern data sets as well as for improvements of statistical accuracy and power. Another issue is that, currently, the relation between different methods for interaction inference is in many cases not transparent, complicating the comparison and interpretation of results between different interaction studies. In this paper we present computationally efficient tests of interaction for the complete family of generalized linear models (GLMs). The tests can be applied for inference of single or multiple interaction parameters, but we show, by simulation, that jointly testing the full set of interaction parameters yields superior power and control of false positive rate. Based on these tests we also describe how to combine results from multiple independent studies of interaction in a meta-analysis. We investigate the impact of several assumptions commonly made when modeling interactions. We also show that, across the important class of models with a full set of interaction parameters, jointly testing the interaction parameters yields identical results. Further, we apply our method to genetic data for cardiovascular disease. This allowed us to identify a putative interaction involved in Lp(a) plasma levels between two ‘tag’ variants in the LPA locus (p = 2.42 ⋅ 10−09) as well as replicate the interaction (p = 6.97 ⋅ 10−07). Finally, our meta-analysis method is used in a small (N = 16,181) study of interactions in myocardial infarction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Protein contacts contain key information for the understanding of protein structure and function and thus, contact prediction from sequence is an important problem. Recently exciting progress has been made on this problem, but the predicted contacts for proteins without many sequence homologs is still of low quality and not very useful for de novo structure prediction. Method: This paper presents a new deep learning method that predicts contacts by integrating both evolutionary coupling (EC) and sequence conservation information through an ultra-deep neural network formed by two deep residual neural networks. The first residual network conducts a series of 1-dimensional convolutional transformation of sequential features; the second residual network conducts a series of 2-dimensional convolutional transformation of pairwise information including output of the first residual network, EC information and pairwise potential. By using very deep residual networks, we can accurately model contact occurrence patterns and complex sequence-structure relationship and thus, obtain high-quality contact prediction regardless of how many sequence homologs are available for proteins in question. Results: Our method greatly outperforms existing methods and leads to much more accurate contact-assisted folding. Tested on 105 CASP11 targets, 76 past CAMEO hard targets, and 398 membrane proteins, the average top L long-range prediction accuracy obtained by our method, one representative EC method CCMpred and the CASP11 winner MetaPSICOV is 0.47, 0.21 and 0.30, respectively; the average top L/10 long-range accuracy of our method, CCMpred and MetaPSICOV is 0.77, 0.47 and 0.59, respectively. Ab initio folding using our predicted contacts as restraints but without any force fields can yield correct folds (i.e., TMscore>0.6) for 203 of the 579 test proteins, while that using MetaPSICOV- and CCMpred-predicted contacts can do so for only 79 and 62 of them, respectively. Our contact-assisted models also have much better quality than template-based models especially for membrane proteins. The 3D models built from our contact prediction have TMscore>0.5 for 208 of the 398 membrane proteins, while those from homology modeling have TMscore>0.5 for only 10 of them. Further, even if trained mostly by soluble proteins, our deep learning method works very well on membrane proteins. In the recent blind CAMEO benchmark, our fully-automated web server implementing this method successfully folded 6 targets with a new fold and only 0.3L-2.3L effective sequence homologs, including one β protein of 182 residues, one α+β protein of 125 residues, one α protein of 140 residues, one α protein of 217 residues, one α/β of 260 residues and one α protein of 462 residues. Our method also achieved the highest F1 score on free-modeling targets in the latest CASP (Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction), although it was not fully implemented back then. Availability: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-feeding, a relationship wherein one organism consumes metabolites excreted by another, is a ubiquitous feature of natural and clinically-relevant microbial communities and could be a key factor promoting diversity in extreme and/or nutrient-poor environments. However, it remains unclear how readily cross-feeding interactions form, and therefore our ability to predict their emergence is limited. In this paper we developed a mathematical model parameterized using data from the biochemistry and ecology of an E. coli cross-feeding laboratory system. The model accurately captures short-term dynamics of the two competitors that have been observed empirically and we use it to systematically explore the stability of cross-feeding interactions for a range of environmental conditions. We find that our simple system can display complex dynamics including multi-stable behavior separated by a critical point. Therefore whether cross-feeding interactions form depends on the complex interplay between density and frequency of the competitors as well as on the concentration of resources in the environment. Moreover, we find that subtly different environmental conditions can lead to dramatically different results regarding the establishment of cross-feeding, which could explain the apparently unpredictable between-population differences in experimental outcomes. We argue that mathematical models are essential tools for disentangling the complexities of cross-feeding interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has recently been suggested that movement variability directly increases the speed of motor learning. Here we use computational modeling of motor adaptation to show that variability can have a broad range of effects on learning, both negative and positive. Experimentally, we also find contributing and decelerating effects. Lastly, through a meta-analysis of published papers, we verify that across a wide range of experiments, movement variability has no statistical relation with learning rate. While motor learning is a complex process that can be modeled, further research is needed to understand the relative importance of the involved factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shotgun metagenomic analysis of the human associated microbiome provides a rich set of microbial features for prediction and biomarker discovery in the context of human diseases and health conditions. However, the use of such high-resolution microbial features presents new challenges, and validated computational tools for learning tasks are lacking. Moreover, classification rules have scarcely been validated in independent studies, posing questions about the generality and generalization of disease-predictive models across cohorts. In this paper, we comprehensively assess approaches to metagenomics-based prediction tasks and for quantitative assessment of the strength of potential microbiome-phenotype associations. We develop a computational framework for prediction tasks using quantitative microbiome profiles, including species-level relative abundances and presence of strain-specific markers. A comprehensive meta-analysis, with particular emphasis on generalization across cohorts, was performed in a collection of 2424 publicly available metagenomic samples from eight large-scale studies. Cross-validation revealed good disease-prediction capabilities, which were in general improved by feature selection and use of strain-specific markers instead of species-level taxonomic abundance. In cross-study analysis, models transferred between studies were in some cases less accurate than models tested by within-study cross-validation. Interestingly, the addition of healthy (control) samples from other studies to training sets improved disease prediction capabilities. Some microbial species (most notably Streptococcus anginosus) seem to characterize general dysbiotic states of the microbiome rather than connections with a specific disease. Our results in modelling features of the “healthy” microbiome can be considered a first step toward defining general microbial dysbiosis. The software framework, microbiome profiles, and metadata for thousands of samples are publicly available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synthetic constructs in biotechnology, biocomputing, and modern gene therapy interventions are often based on plasmids or transfected circuits which implement some form of “on-off” switch. For example, the expression of a protein used for therapeutic purposes might be triggered by the recognition of a specific combination of inducers (e.g., antigens), and memory of this event should be maintained across a cell population until a specific stimulus commands a coordinated shut-off. The robustness of such a design is hampered by molecular (“intrinsic”) or environmental (“extrinsic”) noise, which may lead to spontaneous changes of state in a subset of the population and is reflected in the bimodality of protein expression, as measured for example using flow cytometry. In this context, a “majority-vote” correction circuit, which brings deviant cells back into the required state, is highly desirable, and quorum-sensing has been suggested as a way for cells to broadcast their states to the population as a whole so as to facilitate consensus. In this paper, we propose what we believe is the first such a design that has mathematically guaranteed properties of stability and auto-correction under certain conditions. Our approach is guided by concepts and theory from the field of “monotone” dynamical systems developed by M. Hirsch, H. Smith, and others. We benchmark our design by comparing it to an existing design which has been the subject of experimental and theoretical studies, illustrating its superiority in stability and self-correction of synchronization errors. Our stability analysis, based on dynamical systems theory, guarantees global convergence to steady states, ruling out unpredictable (“chaotic”) behaviors and even sustained oscillations in the limit of convergence. These results are valid no matter what are the values of parameters, and are based only on the wiring diagram. The theory is complemented by extensive computational bifurcation analysis, performed for a biochemically-detailed and biologically-relevant model that we developed. Another novel feature of our approach is that our theorems on exponential stability of steady states for homogeneous or mixed populations are valid independently of the number N of cells in the population, which is usually very large (N ≫ 1) and unknown. We prove that the exponential stability depends on relative proportions of each type of state only. While monotone systems theory has been used previously for systems biology analysis, the current work illustrates its power for synthetic biology design, and thus has wider significance well beyond the application to the important problem of coordination of toggle switches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pharmaceutical sciences, a crucial step of the drug discovery process is the identification of drug-target interactions. However, only a small portion of the drug-target interactions have been experimentally validated, as the experimental validation is laborious and costly. To improve the drug discovery efficiency, there is a great need for the development of accurate computational approaches that can predict potential drug-target interactions to direct the experimental verification. In this paper, we propose a novel drug-target interaction prediction algorithm, namely neighborhood regularized logistic matrix factorization (NRLMF). Specifically, the proposed NRLMF method focuses on modeling the probability that a drug would interact with a target by logistic matrix factorization, where the properties of drugs and targets are represented by drug-specific and target-specific latent vectors, respectively. Moreover, NRLMF assigns higher importance levels to positive observations (i.e., the observed interacting drug-target pairs) than negative observations (i.e., the unknown pairs). Because the positive observations are already experimentally verified, they are usually more trustworthy. Furthermore, the local structure of the drug-target interaction data has also been exploited via neighborhood regularization to achieve better prediction accuracy. We conducted extensive experiments over four benchmark datasets, and NRLMF demonstrated its effectiveness compared with five state-of-the-art approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sleep onset process (SOP) is a dynamic process correlated with a multitude of behavioral and physiological markers. A principled analysis of the SOP can serve as a foundation for answering questions of fundamental importance in basic neuroscience and sleep medicine. Unfortunately, current methods for analyzing the SOP fail to account for the overwhelming evidence that the wake/sleep transition is governed by continuous, dynamic physiological processes. Instead, current practices coarsely discretize sleep both in terms of state, where it is viewed as a binary (wake or sleep) process, and in time, where it is viewed as a single time point derived from subjectively scored stages in 30-second epochs, effectively eliminating SOP dynamics from the analysis. These methods also fail to integrate information from both behavioral and physiological data. It is thus imperative to resolve the mismatch between the physiological evidence and analysis methodologies. In this paper, we develop a statistically and physiologically principled dynamic framework and empirical SOP model, combining simultaneously-recorded physiological measurements with behavioral data from a novel breathing task requiring no arousing external sensory stimuli. We fit the model using data from healthy subjects, and estimate the instantaneous probability that a subject is awake during the SOP. The model successfully tracked physiological and behavioral dynamics for individual nights, and significantly outperformed the instantaneous transition models implicit in clinical definitions of sleep onset. Our framework also provides a principled means for cross-subject data alignment as a function of wake probability, allowing us to characterize and compare SOP dynamics across different populations. This analysis enabled us to quantitatively compare the EEG of subjects showing reduced alpha power with the remaining subjects at identical response probabilities. Thus, by incorporating both physiological and behavioral dynamics into our model framework, the dynamics of our analyses can finally match those observed during the SOP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correlation patterns in multiple sequence alignments of homologous proteins can be exploited to infer information on the three-dimensional structure of their members. The typical pipeline to address this task, which we in this paper refer to as the three dimensions of contact prediction, is to (i) filter and align the raw sequence data representing the evolutionarily related proteins; (ii) choose a predictive model to describe a sequence alignment; (iii) infer the model parameters and interpret them in terms of structural properties, such as an accurate contact map. We show here that all three dimensions are important for overall prediction success. In particular, we show that it is possible to improve significantly along the second dimension by going beyond the pair-wise Potts models from statistical physics, which have hitherto been the focus of the field. These (simple) extensions are motivated by multiple sequence alignments often containing long stretches of gaps which, as a data feature, would be rather untypical for independent samples drawn from a Potts model. Using a large test set of proteins we show that the combined improvements along the three dimensions are as large as any reported to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic risk prediction is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Accurate prediction models will have great impacts on both disease prevention and early treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome wide association studies (GWAS), genetic risk prediction accuracy remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. In this paper, we introduce AnnoPred, a principled framework that leverages diverse types of genomic and epigenomic functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. AnnoPred is trained using GWAS summary statistics in a Bayesian framework in which we explicitly model various functional annotations and allow for linkage disequilibrium estimated from reference genotype data. Compared with state-of-the-art risk prediction methods, AnnoPred achieves consistently improved prediction accuracy in both extensive simulations and real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Muscle contractions are generated by cyclical interactions of myosin heads with actin filaments to form the actomyosin complex. To simulate actomyosin complex stable states, mathematical models usually define an energy landscape with a corresponding number of wells. The jumps between these wells are defined through rate constants. Almost all previous models assign these wells an infinite sharpness by imposing a relatively simple expression for the detailed balance, i.e., the ratio of the rate constants depends exponentially on the sole myosin elastic energy. Physically, this assumption corresponds to neglecting thermal fluctuations in the actomyosin complex stable states. By comparing three mathematical models, we examine the extent to which this hypothesis affects muscle model predictions at the single cross-bridge, single fiber, and organ levels in a ceteris paribus analysis. We show that including fluctuations in stable states allows the lever arm of the myosin to easily and dynamically explore all possible minima in the energy landscape, generating several backward and forward jumps between states during the lifetime of the actomyosin complex, whereas the infinitely sharp minima case is characterized by fewer jumps between states. Moreover, the analysis predicts that thermal fluctuations enable a more efficient contraction mechanism, in which a higher force is sustained by fewer attached cross-bridges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current state of the art is to gather this knowledge using in-person patient contact. While accurate, this is time-consuming and expensive. This has motivated inquiry into new approaches using internet activity traces, based on the theory that lay observations of health status lead to informative features in internet data. These approaches risk being deceived by activity traces having a coincidental, rather than informative, relationship to disease incidence; to our knowledge, this risk has not yet been quantitatively explored. We evaluated both simulated and real activity traces of varying deceptiveness for influenza incidence estimation using linear regression. We found that deceptiveness knowledge does reduce error in such estimates, that it may help automatically-selected features perform as well or better than features that require human curation, and that a semantic distance measure derived from the Wikipedia article category tree serves as a useful proxy for deceptiveness. This suggests that disease incidence estimation models should incorporate not only data about how internet features map to incidence but also additional data to estimate feature deceptiveness. By doing so, we may gain one more step along the path to accurate, reliable disease incidence estimation using internet data. This capability would improve public health by decreasing the cost and increasing the timeliness of such estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many brain areas, sensory responses are heavily modulated by factors including attentional state, context, reward history, motor preparation, learned associations, and other cognitive variables. Modelling the effect of these modulatory factors on sensory responses has proven challenging, mostly due to the time-varying and nonlinear nature of the underlying computations. Here we present a computational model capable of capturing and dissociating multiple time-varying modulatory effects on neuronal responses on the order of milliseconds. The model’s performance is tested on extrastriate perisaccadic visual responses in nonhuman primates. Visual neurons respond to stimuli presented around the time of saccades differently than during fixation. These perisaccadic changes include sensitivity to the stimuli presented at locations outside the neuron’s receptive field, which suggests a contribution of multiple sources to perisaccadic response generation. Current computational approaches cannot quantitatively characterize the contribution of each modulatory source in response generation, mainly due to the very short timescale on which the saccade takes place. In this study, we use a high spatiotemporal resolution experimental paradigm along with a novel extension of the generalized linear model framework (GLM), termed the sparse-variable GLM, to allow for time-varying model parameters representing the temporal evolution of the system with a resolution on the order of milliseconds. We used this model framework to precisely map the temporal evolution of the spatiotemporal receptive field of visual neurons in the middle temporal area during the execution of a saccade. Moreover, an extended model based on a factorization of the sparse-variable GLM allowed us to disassociate and quantify the contribution of individual sources to the perisaccadic response. Our results show that our novel framework can precisely capture the changes in sensitivity of neurons around the time of saccades, and provide a general framework to quantitatively track the role of multiple modulatory sources over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In various fields, statistical models of interest are analytically intractable and inference is usually performed using a simulation-based method. However elegant these methods are, they are often painstakingly slow and convergence is difficult to assess. As a result, statistical inference is greatly hampered by computational constraints. However, for a given statistical model, different users, even with different data, are likely to perform similar computations. Computations done by one user are potentially useful for other users with different data sets. We propose a pooling of resources across researchers to capitalize on this. More specifically, we preemptively chart out the entire space of possible model outcomes in a prepaid database. Using advanced interpolation techniques, any individual estimation problem can now be solved on the spot. The prepaid method can easily accommodate different priors as well as constraints on the parameters. We created prepaid databases for three challenging models and demonstrate how they can be distributed through an online parameter estimation service. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art estimation techniques in both speed (with a 23,000 to 100,000-fold speed up) and accuracy, and is able to handle previously quasi inestimable models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-space and action representations form the building blocks of decision-making processes in the brain; states map external cues to the current situation of the agent whereas actions provide the set of motor commands from which the agent can choose to achieve specific goals. Although these factors differ across environments, it is currently unknown whether or how accurately state and action representations are acquired by the agent because previous experiments have typically provided this information a priori through instruction or pre-training. Here we studied how state and action representations adapt to reflect the structure of the world when such a priori knowledge is not available. We used a sequential decision-making task in rats in which they were required to pass through multiple states before reaching the goal, and for which the number of states and how they map onto external cues were unknown a priori. We found that, early in training, animals selected actions as if the task was not sequential and outcomes were the immediate consequence of the most proximal action. During the course of training, however, rats recovered the true structure of the environment and made decisions based on the expanded state-space, reflecting the multiple stages of the task. Similarly, we found that the set of actions expanded with training, although the emergence of new action sequences was sensitive to the experimental parameters and specifics of the training procedure. We conclude that the profile of choices shows a gradual shift from simple representations to more complex structures compatible with the structure of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirteen tubulin protofilaments, made of αβ-tubulin heterodimers, interact laterally to produce cytoskeletal microtubules. Microtubules exhibit the striking property of dynamic instability, manifested in their intermittent growth and shrinkage at both ends. This behavior is key to many cellular processes, such as cell division, migration, maintenance of cell shape, etc. Although assembly and disassembly of microtubules is known to be linked to hydrolysis of a guanosine triphosphate molecule in the pocket of β-tubulin, detailed mechanistic understanding of corresponding conformational changes is still lacking. Here we take advantage of the recent generation of in-microtubule structures of tubulin to examine the properties of protofilaments, which serve as important microtubule assembly and disassembly intermediates. We find that initially straight tubulin protofilaments, relax to similar non-radially curved and slightly twisted conformations. Our analysis further suggests that guanosine triphosphate hydrolysis primarily affects the flexibility and conformation of the inter-dimer interface, without a strong impact on the shape or flexibility of αβ-heterodimer. Inter-dimer interfaces are significantly more flexible compared to intra-dimer interfaces. We argue that such a difference in flexibility could be key for distinct stability of the plus and minus microtubule ends. The higher flexibility of the inter-dimer interface may have implications for development of pulling force by curving tubulin protofilaments during microtubule disassembly, a process of major importance for chromosome motions in mitosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the inherent complexity of bioprocesses, mathematical models are more and more used for process design, control, optimization, etc. These models are generally based on a set of biochemical reactions. Model equations are then derived from mass balance, coupled with empirical kinetics. Biological models are nonlinear and represent processes, which by essence are dynamic and adaptive. The temptation to embed most of the biology is high, with the risk that calibration would not be significant anymore. The most important task for a modeler is thus to ensure a balance between model complexity and ease of use. Since a model should be tailored to the objectives, which will depend on applications and environment, a universal model representing any possible situation is probably not the best option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting and testing the types of Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) of each patient using cost-effective microarray-based expression data and machine learning algorithms could greatly help either identifying the most targeting medicine or adopting other therapeutic measures that could correct/restore defective genetic signaling at the early stage. Furthermore, the prediction model construction processes can also help identifying highly informative genes controlling PAH, leading to enhanced understanding of the disease etiology and molecular pathways. In this study, we used several different gene filtering methods based on microarray expression data obtained from a high-quality patient PAH dataset. Following that, we proposed a novel feature selection and refinement algorithm in conjunction with well-known machine learning methods to identify a small set of highly informative genes. Results indicated that clusters of small-expression genes could be extremely informative at predicting and differentiating different forms of PAH. Additionally, our proposed novel feature refinement algorithm could lead to significant enhancement in model performance. To summarize, integrated with state-of-the-art machine learning and novel feature refining algorithms, the most accurate models could provide near-perfect classification accuracies using very few (close to ten) low-expression genes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of compounds that are active against a desired biological target is a common step in drug discovery efforts. Virtual screening methods seek some active-enriched fraction of a library for experimental testing. Where data are too scarce to train supervised learning models for compound prioritization, initial screening must provide the necessary data. Commonly, such an initial library is selected on the basis of chemical diversity by some pseudo-random process (for example, the first few plates of a larger library) or by selecting an entire smaller library. These approaches may not produce a sufficient number or diversity of actives. An alternative approach is to select an informer set of screening compounds on the basis of chemogenomic information from previous testing of compounds against a large number of targets. We compare different ways of using chemogenomic data to choose a small informer set of compounds based on previously measured bioactivity data. We develop this Informer-Based-Ranking (IBR) approach using the Published Kinase Inhibitor Sets (PKIS) as the chemogenomic data to select the informer sets. We test the informer compounds on a target that is not part of the chemogenomic data, then predict the activity of the remaining compounds based on the experimental informer data and the chemogenomic data. Through new chemical screening experiments, we demonstrate the utility of IBR strategies in a prospective test on three kinase targets not included in the PKIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of influenza-like illness (ILI) using search trends activity was intended to supplement traditional surveillance systems, and was a motivation behind the development of Google Flu Trends (GFT). However, several studies have previously reported large errors in GFT estimates of ILI in the US. Following recent release of time-stamped surveillance data, which better reflects real-time operational scenarios, we reanalyzed GFT errors. Using three data sources—GFT: an archive of weekly ILI estimates from Google Flu Trends; ILIf: fully-observed ILI rates from ILINet; and, ILIp: ILI rates available in real-time based on partial reporting—five influenza seasons were analyzed and mean square errors (MSE) of GFT and ILIp as estimates of ILIf were computed. To correct GFT errors, a random forest regression model was built with ILI and GFT rates from the previous three weeks as predictors. An overall reduction in error of 44% was observed and the errors of the corrected GFT are lower than those of ILIp. An 80% reduction in error during 2012/13, when GFT had large errors, shows that extreme failures of GFT could have been avoided. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, one- to four-week ahead forecasts were generated with two separate data streams: ILIp alone, and with both ILIp and corrected GFT. At all forecast targets and seasons, and for all but two regions, inclusion of GFT lowered MSE. Results from two alternative error measures, mean absolute error and mean absolute proportional error, were largely consistent with results from MSE. Taken together these findings provide an error profile of GFT in the US, establish strong evidence for the adoption of search trends based 'nowcasts' in influenza forecast systems, and encourage reevaluation of the utility of this data source in diverse domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability, stochastic or otherwise, is a central feature of neural activity. Yet the means by which estimates of variation and uncertainty are derived from noisy observations of neural activity is often heuristic, with more weight given to numerical convenience than statistical rigour. For two-photon imaging data, composed of fundamentally probabilistic streams of photon detections, the problem is particularly acute. Here, we present a statistical pipeline for the inference and analysis of neural activity using Gaussian Process regression, applied to two-photon recordings of light-driven activity in ex vivo mouse retina. We demonstrate the flexibility and extensibility of these models, considering cases with non-stationary statistics, driven by complex parametric stimuli, in signal discrimination, hierarchical clustering and other inference tasks. Sparse approximation methods allow these models to be fitted rapidly, permitting them to actively guide the design of light stimulation in the midst of ongoing two-photon experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we put forward a mathematical model describing the response of low-grade (WHO grade II) oligodendrogliomas (LGO) to temozolomide (TMZ). The model describes the longitudinal volumetric dynamics of tumor response to TMZ of a cohort of 11 LGO patients treated with TMZ. After finding patient-specific parameters, different therapeutic strategies were tried computationally on the ‘in-silico twins’ of those patients. Chemotherapy schedules with larger-than-standard rest periods between consecutive cycles had either the same or better long-term efficacy than the standard 28-day cycles. The results were confirmed in a large trial of 2000 virtual patients. These long-cycle schemes would also have reduced toxicity and defer the appearance of resistances. On the basis of those results, a combination scheme consisting of five induction TMZ cycles given monthly plus 12 maintenance cycles given every three months was found to provide substantial survival benefits for the in-silico twins of the 11 LGO patients (median 5.69 years, range: 0.67 to 68.45 years) and in a large virtual trial including 2000 patients. We used 220 sets of experiments in-silico to show that a clinical trial incorporating 100 patients per arm (standard intensive treatment versus 5 + 12 scheme) could demonstrate the superiority of the novel scheme after a follow-up period of 10 years. Thus, the proposed treatment plan could be the basis for a standardized TMZ treatment for LGO patients with survival benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer is mainly caused by somatic genome alterations (SGAs). Precision oncology involves identifying and targeting tumor-specific aberrations resulting from causative SGAs. We developed a novel tumor-specific computational framework that finds the likely causative SGAs in an individual tumor and estimates their impact on oncogenic processes, which suggests the disease mechanisms that are acting in that tumor. This information can be used to guide precision oncology. We report a tumor-specific causal inference (TCI) framework, which estimates causative SGAs by modeling causal relationships between SGAs and molecular phenotypes (e.g., transcriptomic, proteomic, or metabolomic changes) within an individual tumor. We applied the TCI algorithm to tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and estimated for each tumor the SGAs that causally regulate the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in that tumor. Overall, TCI identified 634 SGAs that are predicted to cause cancer-related DEGs in a significant number of tumors, including most of the previously known drivers and many novel candidate cancer drivers. The inferred causal relationships are statistically robust and biologically sensible, and multiple lines of experimental evidence support the predicted functional impact of both the well-known and the novel candidate drivers that are predicted by TCI. TCI provides a unified framework that integrates multiple types of SGAs and molecular phenotypes to estimate which genome perturbations are causally influencing one or more molecular/cellular phenotypes in an individual tumor. By identifying major candidate drivers and revealing their functional impact in an individual tumor, TCI sheds light on the disease mechanisms of that tumor, which can serve to advance our basic knowledge of cancer biology and to support precision oncology that provides tailored treatment of individual tumors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Living creatures must accurately infer the nature of their environments. They do this despite being confronted by stochastic and context sensitive contingencies—and so must constantly update their beliefs regarding their uncertainty about what might come next. In this work, we examine how we deal with uncertainty that evolves over time. This prospective uncertainty (or imprecision) is referred to as volatility and has previously been linked to noradrenergic signals that originate in the locus coeruleus. Using pupillary dilatation as a measure of central noradrenergic signalling, we tested the hypothesis that changes in pupil diameter reflect inferences humans make about environmental volatility. To do so, we collected pupillometry data from participants presented with a stream of numbers. We generated these numbers from a process with varying degrees of volatility. By measuring pupillary dilatation in response to these stimuli—and simulating the inferences made by an ideal Bayesian observer of the same stimuli—we demonstrate that humans update their beliefs about environmental contingencies in a Bayes optimal way. We show this by comparing general linear (convolution) models that formalised competing hypotheses about the causes of pupillary changes. We found greater evidence for models that included Bayes optimal estimates of volatility than those without. We additionally explore the interaction between different causes of pupil dilation and suggest a quantitative approach to characterising a person’s prior beliefs about volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]