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The article presents several rules for restructuring papers to avoid losing readers. Authors are instructed to focus their papers on a central contribution and to concentrate on the context-content-conclusion (C-C-C) scheme. They are also advised to optimize a paper's logical flow by avoiding zig-zag and using parallelism and to include complete story in the abstract.

The article discusses rules for considering regarding preprint submission of scientific work in journals. Topics include analysis of published papers undertaken by cell biologist Stephen Royle for estimating the average time from first submission to publication, data mining of the written content for making it better utilizing the knowledge, and encouraging authors to licenses and formats for facilitating reuse while retaining copyright to their work.

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of this model to predict the effects of planning policies for screening operations. Our analysis yields an analytical expression for the screening frequency required to reach eradication (zero prevalence) and a simple approach for determining the frequency required to reach elimination within a given time frame (one case per 10000). Furthermore, the model predictions suggest that annual screening is only expected to lead to eradication if at least half of the cases are detected during the screening rounds. This paper extends knowledge on control strategies for HAT and serves as a basis for further modeling and optimization studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a data analysis framework to uncover relationships between health conditions, age and sex for a large population of patients. We study a massive heterogeneous sample of 1.7 million patients in Brazil, containing 47 million of health records with detailed medical conditions for visits to medical facilities for a period of 17 months. The findings suggest that medical conditions can be grouped into clusters that share very distinctive densities in the ages of the patients. For each cluster, we further present the ICD-10 chapters within it. Finally, we relate the findings to comorbidity networks, uncovering the relation of the discovered clusters of age densities to comorbidity networks literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers suggestions for finding research data to meet research needs. Topics discussed include assess data relevance and suitability and refine data search; look for data services and monitor the latest data; and familiarize with the controlled vocabularies, subject categories, and search fields used in particular repositories.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one in twenty five hospital patients are infected with at least one healthcare acquired infection (HAI) on any given day. Early detection of possible HAI outbreaks help practitioners implement countermeasures before the infection spreads extensively. Here, we develop an efficient data and model driven method to detect outbreaks with high accuracy. We leverage mechanistic modeling of C. difficile infection, a major HAI disease, to simulate its spread in a hospital wing and design efficient near-optimal algorithms to select people and locations to monitor using an optimization formulation. Results show that our strategy detects up to 95% of “future” C. difficile outbreaks. We design our method by incorporating specific hospital practices (like swabbing for infections) as well. As a result, our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for outbreak detection. Finally, a qualitative study of our result shows that the people and locations we select to monitor as sensors are intuitive and meaningful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) is an important cause of healthcare-associated infections, particularly in immunocompromised patients. Understanding how this multi-drug resistant pathogen is transmitted within intensive care units (ICUs) is crucial for devising and evaluating successful control strategies. While it is known that moist environments serve as natural reservoirs for P. aeruginosa, there is little quantitative evidence regarding the contribution of environmental contamination to its transmission within ICUs. Previous studies on other nosocomial pathogens rely on deploying specific values for environmental parameters derived from costly and laborious genotyping. Using solely longitudinal surveillance data, we estimated the relative importance of P. aeruginosa transmission routes by exploiting the fact that different routes cause different pattern of fluctuations in the prevalence. We developed a mathematical model including background transmission, cross-transmission and environmental contamination. Patients contribute to a pool of pathogens by shedding bacteria to the environment. Natural decay and cleaning of the environment lead to a reduction of that pool. By assigning the bacterial load shed during an ICU stay to cross-transmission, we were able to disentangle environmental contamination during and after a patient’s stay. Based on a data-augmented Markov Chain Monte Carlo method the relative importance of the considered acquisition routes is determined for two ICUs of the University hospital in Besançon (France). We used information about the admission and discharge days, screening days and screening results of the ICU patients. Both background and cross-transmission play a significant role in the transmission process in both ICUs. In contrast, only about 1% of the total transmissions were due to environmental contamination after discharge. Based on longitudinal surveillance data, we conclude that cleaning improvement of the environment after discharge might have only a limited impact regarding the prevention of P.A. infections in the two considered ICUs of the University hospital in Besançon. Our model was developed for P. aeruginosa but can be easily applied to other pathogens as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of influenza-like illness (ILI) using search trends activity was intended to supplement traditional surveillance systems, and was a motivation behind the development of Google Flu Trends (GFT). However, several studies have previously reported large errors in GFT estimates of ILI in the US. Following recent release of time-stamped surveillance data, which better reflects real-time operational scenarios, we reanalyzed GFT errors. Using three data sources—GFT: an archive of weekly ILI estimates from Google Flu Trends; ILIf: fully-observed ILI rates from ILINet; and, ILIp: ILI rates available in real-time based on partial reporting—five influenza seasons were analyzed and mean square errors (MSE) of GFT and ILIp as estimates of ILIf were computed. To correct GFT errors, a random forest regression model was built with ILI and GFT rates from the previous three weeks as predictors. An overall reduction in error of 44% was observed and the errors of the corrected GFT are lower than those of ILIp. An 80% reduction in error during 2012/13, when GFT had large errors, shows that extreme failures of GFT could have been avoided. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, one- to four-week ahead forecasts were generated with two separate data streams: ILIp alone, and with both ILIp and corrected GFT. At all forecast targets and seasons, and for all but two regions, inclusion of GFT lowered MSE. Results from two alternative error measures, mean absolute error and mean absolute proportional error, were largely consistent with results from MSE. Taken together these findings provide an error profile of GFT in the US, establish strong evidence for the adoption of search trends based 'nowcasts' in influenza forecast systems, and encourage reevaluation of the utility of this data source in diverse domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibiotic-resistance of hospital-acquired infections is a major public health issue. The worldwide emergence and diffusion of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae, including Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-KP), is of particular concern. Preventing their nosocomial spread requires understanding their transmission. Using Close Proximity Interactions (CPIs), measured by wearable sensors, and weekly ESBL-EC–and ESBL-KP–carriage data, we traced their possible transmission paths among 329 patients in a 200-bed long-term care facility over 4 months. Based on phenotypically defined resistance profiles to 12 antibiotics only, new bacterial acquisitions were tracked. Extending a previously proposed statistical method, the CPI network’s ability to support observed incident-colonization episodes of ESBL-EC and ESBL-KP was tested. Finally, mathematical modeling based on our findings assessed the effect of several infection-control measures. A potential infector was identified in the CPI network for 80% (16/20) of ESBL-KP acquisition episodes. The lengths of CPI paths between ESBL-KP incident cases and their potential infectors were shorter than predicted by chance (P = 0.02), indicating that CPI-network relationships were consistent with dissemination. Potential ESBL-EC infectors were identified for 54% (19/35) of the acquisitions, with longer-than-expected lengths of CPI paths. These contrasting results yielded differing impacts of infection control scenarios, with contact reduction interventions proving less effective for ESBL-EC than for ESBL-KP. These results highlight the widely variable transmission patterns among ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae species. CPI networks supported ESBL-KP, but not ESBL-EC spread. These outcomes could help design more specific surveillance and control strategies to prevent in-hospital Enterobacteriaceae dissemination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial Intelligence is exponentially increasing its impact on healthcare. As deep learning is mastering computer vision tasks, its application to digital pathology is natural, with the promise of aiding in routine reporting and standardizing results across trials. Deep learning features inferred from digital pathology scans can improve validity and robustness of current clinico-pathological features, up to identifying novel histological patterns, e.g., from tumor infiltrating lymphocytes. In this study, we examine the issue of evaluating accuracy of predictive models from deep learning features in digital pathology, as an hallmark of reproducibility. We introduce the DAPPER framework for validation based on a rigorous Data Analysis Plan derived from the FDA’s MAQC project, designed to analyze causes of variability in predictive biomarkers. We apply the framework on models that identify tissue of origin on 787 Whole Slide Images from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. We test three different deep learning architectures (VGG, ResNet, Inception) as feature extractors and three classifiers (a fully connected multilayer, Support Vector Machine and Random Forests) and work with four datasets (5, 10, 20 or 30 classes), for a total of 53, 000 tiles at 512 × 512 resolution. We analyze accuracy and feature stability of the machine learning classifiers, also demonstrating the need for diagnostic tests (e.g., random labels) to identify selection bias and risks for reproducibility. Further, we use the deep features from the VGG model from GTEx on the KIMIA24 dataset for identification of slide of origin (24 classes) to train a classifier on 1, 060 annotated tiles and validated on 265 unseen ones. The DAPPER software, including its deep learning pipeline and the Histological Imaging—Newsy Tiles (HINT) benchmark dataset derived from GTEx, is released as a basis for standardization and validation initiatives in AI for digital pathology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination is an effective method to protect against infectious diseases. An important consideration in any vaccine formulation is the inoculum dose, i.e., amount of antigen or live attenuated pathogen that is used. Higher levels generally lead to better stimulation of the immune response but might cause more severe side effects and allow for less population coverage in the presence of vaccine shortages. Determining the optimal amount of inoculum dose is an important component of rational vaccine design. A combination of mathematical models with experimental data can help determine the impact of the inoculum dose. We illustrate the concept of using data and models to inform inoculum dose determination for vaccines, wby fitting a mathematical model to data from influenza A virus (IAV) infection of mice and human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infection of cotton rats at different inoculum doses. We use the model to map inoculum dose to the level of immune protection and morbidity and to explore how such a framework might be used to determine an optimal inoculum dose. We show how a framework that combines mathematical models with experimental data can be used to study the impact of inoculum dose on important outcomes such as immune protection and morbidity. Our findings illustrate that the impact of inoculum dose on immune protection and morbidity can depend on the specific pathogen and that both protection and morbidity do not necessarily increase monotonically with increasing inoculum dose. Once vaccine design goals are specified with required levels of protection and acceptable levels of morbidity, our proposed framework can help in the rational design of vaccines and determination of the optimal amount of inoculum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of an ageing population, understanding the transmission of infectious diseases such as scabies through well-connected sub-units of the population, such as residential care homes, is particularly important for the design of efficient interventions to mitigate against the effects of those diseases. Here, we present a modelling methodology based on the efficient solution of a large-scale system of linear differential equations that allows statistical calibration of individual-based random models to real data on scabies in residential care homes. In particular, we review and benchmark different numerical methods for the integration of the differential equation system, and then select the most appropriate of these methods to perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We test the goodness-of-fit of this model using posterior predictive intervals and propagate forward the resulting parameter uncertainty in a Bayesian framework to consider the economic cost of delayed interventions against scabies, quantifying the benefits of prompt action in the event of detection. We also revisit the previous methodology used to assess the safety of treatments in small population sub-units—in this context ivermectin—and demonstrate that even a very slight relaxation of the implicit assumption of homogeneous death rates significantly increases the plausibility of the hypothesis that ivermectin does not cause excess mortality based upon the data of Barkwell and Shields [1]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperation and competition between human players in repeated microeconomic games offer a window onto social phenomena such as the establishment, breakdown and repair of trust. However, although a suitable starting point for the quantitative analysis of such games exists, namely the Interactive Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (I-POMDP), computational considerations and structural limitations have limited its application, and left unmodelled critical features of behavior in a canonical trust task. Here, we provide the first analysis of two central phenomena: a form of social risk-aversion exhibited by the player who is in control of the interaction in the game; and irritation or anger, potentially exhibited by both players. Irritation arises when partners apparently defect, and it potentially causes a precipitate breakdown in cooperation. Failing to model one’s partner’s propensity for it leads to substantial economic inefficiency. We illustrate these behaviours using evidence drawn from the play of large cohorts of healthy volunteers and patients. We show that for both cohorts, a particular subtype of player is largely responsible for the breakdown of trust, a finding which sheds new light on borderline personality disorder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders affecting about 1% of the world population. For patients with focal seizures that cannot be treated with antiepileptic drugs, the common treatment is a surgical procedure for removal of the seizure onset zone (SOZ). In this work we introduce an algorithm for automatic localization of the seizure onset zone (SOZ) in epileptic patients based on electrocorticography (ECoG) recordings. The proposed algorithm builds upon the hypothesis that the abnormal excessive (or synchronous) neuronal activity in the brain leading to seizures starts in the SOZ and then spreads to other areas in the brain. Thus, when this abnormal activity starts, signals recorded at electrodes close to the SOZ should have a relatively large causal influence on the rest of the recorded signals. The SOZ localization is executed in two steps. First, the algorithm represents the set of electrodes using a directed graph in which nodes correspond to recording electrodes and the edges’ weights quantify the pair-wise causal influence between the recorded signals. Then, the algorithm infers the SOZ from the estimated graph using a variant of the PageRank algorithm followed by a novel post-processing phase. Inference results for 19 patients show a close match between the SOZ inferred by the proposed approach and the SOZ estimated by expert neurologists (success rate of 17 out of 19). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike in most pathogens, multiple-strain (polygenomic) infections of P. falciparum are frequently composed of genetic siblings. These genetic siblings are the result of sexual reproduction and can coinfect the same host when cotransmitted by the same mosquito. The degree with which coinfecting strains are related varies among infections and populations. Because sexual recombination occurs within the mosquito, the relatedness of cotransmitted strains could depend on transmission dynamics, but little is actually known of the factors that influence the relatedness of cotransmitted strains. Part of the uncertainty stems from an incomplete understanding of how within-host and within-vector dynamics affect cotransmission. Cotransmission is difficult to examine experimentally but can be explored using a computational model. We developed a malaria transmission model that simulates sexual reproduction in order to understand what determines the relatedness of cotransmitted strains. This study highlights how the relatedness of cotransmitted strains depends on both within-host and within-vector dynamics including the complexity of infection. We also used our transmission model to analyze the genetic relatedness of polygenomic infections following a series of multiple transmission events and examined the effects of superinfection. Understanding the factors that influence the relatedness of cotransmitted strains could lead to a better understanding of the population-genetic correlates of transmission and therefore be important for public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence for seasonal influenza outbreaks in 48 states and 95 cities using 21 distinct forecast methods, and combined these individual forecasts to create weighted-average superensemble forecasts. We compared the relative performance of these individual and superensemble forecast methods by geographic location, timing of forecast, and influenza season. We find that, overall, the superensemble forecasts are more accurate than any individual forecast method and less prone to producing a poor forecast. Furthermore, we find that these advantages increase when the superensemble weights are stratified according to the characteristics of the forecast or geographic location. These findings indicate that different competing influenza prediction systems can be combined into a single more accurate forecast product for operational delivery in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hospital networks, formed by patients visiting multiple hospitals, affect the spread of hospital-associated infections, resulting in differences in risks for hospitals depending on their network position. These networks are increasingly used to inform strategies to prevent and control the spread of hospital-associated pathogens. However, many studies only consider patients that are received directly from the initial hospital, without considering the effect of indirect trajectories through the network. We determine the optimal way to measure the distance between hospitals within the network, by reconstructing the English hospital network based on shared patients in 2014–2015, and simulating the spread of a hospital-associated pathogen between hospitals, taking into consideration that each intermediate hospital conveys a delay in the further spread of the pathogen. While the risk of transferring a hospital-associated pathogen between directly neighbouring hospitals is a direct reflection of the number of shared patients, the distance between two hospitals far-away in the network is determined largely by the number of intermediate hospitals in the network. Because the network is dense, most long distance transmission chains in fact involve only few intermediate steps, spreading along the many weak links. The dense connectivity of hospital networks, together with a strong regional structure, causes hospital-associated pathogens to spread from the initial outbreak in a two-step process: first, the directly surrounding hospitals are affected through the strong connections, second all other hospitals receive introductions through the multitude of weaker links. Although the strong connections matter for local spread, weak links in the network can offer ideal routes for hospital-associated pathogens to travel further faster. This hold important implications for infection prevention and control efforts: if a local outbreak is not controlled in time, colonised patients will appear in other regions, irrespective of the distance to the initial outbreak, making import screening ever more difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The H3ABioNet pan-African bioinformatics network, which is funded to support the Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) program, has developed node-assessment exercises to gauge the ability of its participating research and service groups to analyze typical genome-wide datasets being generated by H3Africa research groups. We describe a framework for the assessment of computational genomics analysis skills, which includes standard operating procedures, training and test datasets, and a process for administering the exercise. We present the experiences of 3 research groups that have taken the exercise and the impact on their ability to manage complex projects. Finally, we discuss the reasons why many H3ABioNet nodes have declined so far to participate and potential strategies to encourage them to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the results of a two-year project which aimed to provide guidance to the National Science Foundation (NSF) on how to best encourage ethical practices in scientific and engineering research involving the use of big data research methods and infrastructures. The assumption that most data represent or impact people should be used to guide one's analysis. Researchers are also encouraged to situate and contextualize data to anticipate privacy breaches and minimize harm.

As many malaria-endemic countries move towards elimination of Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent human malaria parasite, effective tools for monitoring malaria epidemiology are urgent priorities. P. falciparum population genetic approaches offer promising tools for understanding transmission and spread of the disease, but a high prevalence of multi-clone or polygenomic infections can render estimation of even the most basic parameters, such as allele frequencies, challenging. A previous method, COIL, was developed to estimate complexity of infection (COI) from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, but relies on monogenomic infections to estimate allele frequencies or requires external allele frequency data which may not available. Estimates limited to monogenomic infections may not be representative, however, and when the average COI is high, they can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Therefore, we developed THE REAL McCOIL, Turning HEterozygous SNP data into Robust Estimates of ALelle frequency, via Markov chain Monte Carlo, and Complexity Of Infection using Likelihood, to incorporate polygenomic samples and simultaneously estimate allele frequency and COI. This approach was tested via simulations then applied to SNP data from cross-sectional surveys performed in three Ugandan sites with varying malaria transmission. We show that THE REAL McCOIL consistently outperforms COIL on simulated data, particularly when most infections are polygenomic. Using field data we show that, unlike with COIL, we can distinguish epidemiologically relevant differences in COI between and within these sites. Surprisingly, for example, we estimated high average COI in a peri-urban subregion with lower transmission intensity, suggesting that many of these cases were imported from surrounding regions with higher transmission intensity. THE REAL McCOIL therefore provides a robust tool for understanding the molecular epidemiology of malaria across transmission settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers suggestions for development of multi-site collaborations for enhancement of data sharing approaches. Topics discussed include observation of increment in research productivity through enhancement of software services; involvement of several algorithms along with different software tools as research products; enhancement of software as open-source; security of data use agreements; and engagement with different software social platforms.

The article evaluates GitHub, a web-based platform that provides a free and integrated environment for hosting the source code, documentation, and project-related web content for open-source.

Biomarkers that drift differentially with age between normal and premalignant tissues, such as Barrett’s esophagus (BE), have the potential to improve the assessment of a patient’s cancer risk by providing quantitative information about how long a patient has lived with the precursor (i.e., dwell time). In the case of BE, which is a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), such biomarkers would be particularly useful because EAC risk may change with BE dwell time and it is generally not known how long a patient has lived with BE when a patient is first diagnosed with this condition. In this study we first describe a statistical analysis of DNA methylation data (both cross-sectional and longitudinal) derived from tissue samples from 50 BE patients to identify and validate a set of 67 CpG dinucleotides in 51 CpG islands that undergo age-related methylomic drift. Next, we describe how this information can be used to estimate a patient’s BE dwell time. We introduce a Bayesian model that incorporates longitudinal methylomic drift rates, patient age, and methylation data from individually paired BE and normal squamous tissue samples to estimate patient-specific BE onset times. Our application of the model to 30 sporadic BE patients’ methylomic profiles first exposes a wide heterogeneity in patient-specific BE onset times. Furthermore, independent application of this method to a cohort of 22 familial BE (FBE) patients reveals significantly earlier mean BE onset times. Our analysis supports the conjecture that differential methylomic drift occurs in BE (relative to normal squamous tissue) and hence allows quantitative estimation of the time that a BE patient has lived with BE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioinformatics is now a critical skill in many research and commercial environments as biological data are increasing in both size and complexity. South African researchers recognized this need in the mid-1990s and responded by working with the government as well as international bodies to develop initiatives to build bioinformatics capacity in the country. Significant injections of support from these bodies provided a springboard for the establishment of computational biology units at multiple universities throughout the country, which took on teaching, basic research and support roles. Several challenges were encountered, for example with unreliability of funding, lack of skills, and lack of infrastructure. However, the bioinformatics community worked together to overcome these, and South Africa is now arguably the leading country in bioinformatics on the African continent. Here we discuss how the discipline developed in the country, highlighting the challenges, successes, and lessons learnt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foodborne disease outbreaks of recent years demonstrate that due to increasingly interconnected supply chains these type of crisis situations have the potential to affect thousands of people, leading to significant healthcare costs, loss of revenue for food companies, and—in the worst cases—death. When a disease outbreak is detected, identifying the contaminated food quickly is vital to minimize suffering and limit economic losses. Here we present a likelihood-based approach that has the potential to accelerate the time needed to identify possibly contaminated food products, which is based on exploitation of food products sales data and the distribution of foodborne illness case reports. Using a real world food sales data set and artificially generated outbreak scenarios, we show that this method performs very well for contamination scenarios originating from a single “guilty” food product. As it is neither always possible nor necessary to identify the single offending product, the method has been extended such that it can be used as a binary classifier. With this extension it is possible to generate a set of potentially “guilty” products that contains the real outbreak source with very high accuracy. Furthermore we explore the patterns of food distributions that lead to “hard-to-identify” foods, the possibility of identifying these food groups a priori, and the extent to which the likelihood-based method can be used to quantify uncertainty. We find that high spatial correlation of sales data between products may be a useful indicator for “hard-to-identify” products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]