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Background: Until recently, the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma infestans, was widespread in Arequipa, Perú, but as a result of a decades-long campaign in which over 70,000 houses were treated with insecticides, infestation prevalence is now greatly reduced. To monitor for T. infestans resurgence, the city is currently in a surveillance phase in which a sample of houses is selected for inspection each year. Despite extensive data from the control campaign that could be used to inform surveillance, the selection of houses to inspect is often carried out haphazardly or by convenience. Therefore, we asked, how can we enhance efforts toward preventing T. infestans resurgence by creating the opportunity for vector surveillance to be informed by data? Methodology/principal findings: To this end, we developed a mobile app that provides vector infestation risk maps generated with data from the control campaign run in a predictive model. The app is intended to enhance vector surveillance activities by giving inspectors the opportunity to incorporate the infestation risk information into their surveillance activities, but it does not dictate which houses to surveil. Therefore, a critical question becomes, will inspectors use the risk information? To answer this question, we ran a pilot study in which we compared surveillance using the app to the current practice (paper maps). We hypothesized that inspectors would use the risk information provided by the app, as measured by the frequency of higher risk houses visited, and qualitative analyses of inspector movement patterns in the field. We also compared the efficiency of both mediums to identify factors that might discourage risk information use. Over the course of ten days (five with each medium), 1,081 houses were visited using the paper maps, of which 366 (34%) were inspected, while 1,038 houses were visited using the app, with 401 (39%) inspected. Five out of eight inspectors (62.5%) visited more higher risk houses when using the app (Fisher’s exact test, p < 0.001). Among all inspectors, there was an upward shift in proportional visits to higher risk houses when using the app (Mantel-Haenszel test, common odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% CI 2.00–2.92), and in a second analysis using generalized linear mixed models, app use increased the odds of visiting a higher risk house 2.73-fold (95% CI 2.24–3.32), suggesting that the risk information provided by the app was used by most inspectors. Qualitative analyses of inspector movement revealed indications of risk information use in seven out of eight (87.5%) inspectors. There was no difference between the app and paper maps in the number of houses visited (paired t-test, p = 0.67) or inspected (p = 0.17), suggesting that app use did not reduce surveillance efficiency. Conclusions/significance: Without staying vigilant to remaining and re-emerging vector foci following a vector control campaign, disease transmission eventually returns and progress achieved is reversed. Our results suggest that, when provided the opportunity, most inspectors will use risk information to direct their surveillance activities, at least over the short term. The study is an initial, but key, step toward evidence-based vector surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) affect more than 1.5 billion people. The global strategy to control STH infections requires periodic mass drug administration (MDA) based on prevalence among populations at risk determined by diagnostic testing. Widely used copromicroscopy methods to detect infection, however, have low sensitivity as the prevalence and intensity of STH infections decline with repeated MDA. More sensitive diagnostic tools are needed to inform program decision-making. Using an integrated product development process, PATH conducted qualitative and quantitative formative research to inform the design and development of a more sensitive test for STH infections. The research, grounded in a conceptual framework for ensuring access to health products, involved stakeholder analysis, key opinion leader interviews, observational site visits of ongoing STH surveillance programs, and market research including market sizing, costing and willingness-to-pay analyses. Stakeholder analysis identified key groups and proposed strategic engagement of stakeholders during product development. Interviews highlighted features, motivations and concerns that are important for guiding design and implementation of new STH diagnostics. Process mapping outlined current STH surveillance workflows in Kenya and the Philippines. Market sizing in 2016 was estimated around half a million tests for lower STH burden countries, and 1–2 million tests for higher STH burden countries. The cost of commodities per patient for a molecular STH diagnostic may be around $10, 3–4 times higher than copromicroscopy methods, though savings may be possible in time and staffing requirements. The market is highly price sensitive as even at $5 per test, only 27% of respondents thought the test would be used by surveillance programs. A largely subsidized STH control strategy and a semi-functional Kato-Katz test may have created few incentives for manufacturers to innovate in STH diagnostics. Diverse partnerships, as well as balancing needs and expectations for new STH diagnostics are necessary to ensure access to needed products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We contribute a new methodological approach to the ongoing efforts towards evaluating public health surveillance. Specifically, we apply a descriptive framework, grounded in prospect theory (PT), for the evaluation of decisions on disease surveillance deployment. We focus on two attributes of any surveillance system: timeliness, and false positive rate (FPR). Methods: In a sample of 69 health professionals from a number of health related networks polled online, we elicited PT preferences, specifically respondents’ attitudes towards gains, losses and probabilities (i.e., if they overweight or underweight extreme probabilities) by means of a series of lotteries for either timeliness or FPR. Moreover, we estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for improvements in the two surveillance attributes. For contextualization, we apply our framework to rabies surveillance. Results: Our data reveal considerable probability weighting, both for gains and losses. In other words, respondents underestimate their chances of getting a good outcome in uncertain situations, and they overestimate their chances of bad outcomes. Moreover, there is convex utility for losses and loss aversion, that is, losses loom larger than gains of the same absolute magnitude to the respondents. We find no differences between the estimated parameters for timeliness and FPR. The median WTP is $7,250 per day gained in detection time and $30 per 1/10,000 reduction in FPR. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the biases described by PT are present among public health professionals, which highlights the need to incorporate a PT framework when eliciting their preferences for surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prevalence is a common epidemiological measure for assessing soil-transmitted helminth burden and forms the basis for much public-health decision-making. Standard diagnostic techniques are based on egg detection in stool samples through microscopy and these techniques are known to have poor sensitivity for individuals with low infection intensity, leading to poor sensitivity in low prevalence populations. PCR diagnostic techniques offer very high sensitivities even at low prevalence, but at a greater cost for each diagnostic test in terms of equipment needed and technician time and training. Pooling of samples can allow prevalence to be estimated while minimizing the number of tests performed. We develop a model of the relative cost of pooling to estimate prevalence, compared to the direct approach of testing all samples individually. Analysis shows how expected relative cost depends on both the underlying prevalence in the population and the size of the pools constructed. A critical prevalence level (approx. 31%) above which pooling is never cost effective, independent of pool size. When no prevalence information is available, there is no basis on which to choose between pooling and testing all samples individually. We recast our model of relative cost in a Bayesian framework in order to investigate how prior information about prevalence in a given population can be used to inform the decision to choose either pooling or full testing. Results suggest that if prevalence is below 10%, a relatively small exploratory prevalence survey (10–15 samples) can be sufficient to give a high degree of certainty that pooling may be relatively cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: By means of meta-analysis of information from all relevant epidemiologic studies, we examined the hypothesis that Schistosoma infection in school-aged children (SAC) is associated with educational loss and cognitive deficits. Methodology/Principal findings: This review was prospectively registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42016040052). Medline, Biosis, and Web of Science were searched for studies published before August 2016 that evaluated associations between Schistosoma infection and cognitive or educational outcomes. Cognitive function was defined in four domains—learning, memory, reaction time, and innate intelligence. Educational outcome measures were defined as attendance and scholastic achievement. Risk of bias (ROB) was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale. Standardized mean differences (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to compare cognitive and educational measures for Schistosoma infected /not dewormed vs. uninfected/dewormed children. Sensitivity analyses by study design, ROB, and sequential exclusion of individual studies were implemented. Thirty studies from 14 countries, including 38,992 SAC between 5–19 years old, were identified. Compared to uninfected children and children dewormed with praziquantel, the presence of Schistosoma infection and/or non-dewormed status was associated with deficits in school attendance (SMD = -0.36, 95%CI: -0.60, -0.12), scholastic achievement (SMD = -0.58, 95%CI: -0.96, -0.20), learning (SMD = -0.39, 95%CI: -0.70, -0.09) and memory (SMD = -0.28, 95%CI: -0.52, -0.04) tests. By contrast, Schistosoma-infected/non-dewormed and uninfected/dewormed children were similar with respect to performance in tests of reaction time (SMD = -0.06, 95%CI: -0.42, 0.30) and intelligence (SMD = -0.25, 95%CI: -0.57, 0.06). Schistosoma infection-associated deficits in educational measures were robust among observational studies, but not among interventional studies. The significance of infection-associated deficits in scholastic achievement was sensitive to ROB. Schistosoma infection-related deficits in learning and memory tests were invariant by ROB and study design. Conclusion/Significance: Schistosoma infection/non-treatment was significantly associated with educational, learning, and memory deficits in SAC. Early treatment of children in Schistosoma-endemic regions could potentially mitigate these deficits. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence of an adverse influence of soil transmitted helminth (STH) infections on cognitive function and educational loss is equivocal. Prior meta-analyses have focused on randomized controlled trials only and have not sufficiently explored the potential for disparate influence of STH infection by cognitive domain. We re-examine the hypothesis that STH infection is associated with cognitive deficit and educational loss using data from all primary epidemiologic studies published between 1992 and 2016. Methods: Medline, Biosis and Web of Science were searched for original studies published in the English language. Cognitive function was defined in four domains (learning, memory, reaction time and innate intelligence) and educational loss in two domains (attendance and scholastic achievement). Pooled effect across studies were calculated as standardized mean differences (SMD) to compare cognitive and educational measures for STH infected/non-dewormed children versus STH uninfected /dewormed children using Review Manager 5.3. Sub-group analyses were implemented by study design, risk of bias (ROB) and co-prevalence of Schistosoma species infection. Influential studies were excluded in sensitivity analysis to examine stability of pooled estimates. Findings: We included 36 studies of 12,920 children. STH infected/non-dewormed children had small to moderate deficits in three domains—learning, memory and intelligence (SMD: -0.44 to -0.27, P<0.01–0.03) compared to STH-uninfected/dewormed children. There were no differences by infection/treatment status for reaction time, school attendance and scholastic achievement (SMD: -0.26 to -0.16, P = 0.06–0.19). Heterogeneity of the pooled effects in all six domains was high (P<0.01; I2 = 66–99%). Application of outlier treatment reduced heterogeneity in learning domain (P = 0.12; I2 = 33%) and strengthened STH-related associations in all domains but intelligence (SMD: -0.20, P = 0.09). Results varied by study design and ROB. Among experimental intervention studies, there was no association between STH treatment and educational loss/performance in tests of memory, reaction time and innate intelligence (SMD: -0.27 to 0.17, P = 0.18–0.69). Infection-related deficits in learning persisted within design/ROB levels (SMD: -0.37 to -52, P<0.01) except for pre-vs post intervention design (n = 3 studies, SMD = -0.43, P = 0.47). Deficits in memory, reaction time and innate intelligence persisted within observational studies (SMD: -0.23 to -0.38, all P<0.01) and high ROB strata (SMD:-0.37 to -0.83, P = 0.07 to <0.01). Further, in Schistosoma infection co-prevalent settings, associations were generally stronger and statistically robust for STH-related deficits in learning, memory and reaction time tests(SMD:-0.36 to -0.55, P = 0.003–0.02). STH-related deficits in school attendance and scholastic achievement was noted in low (SMD:-0.57, P = 0.05) and high ROB strata respectively. Interpretation: We provide evidence of superior performance in five of six educational and cognitive domains assessed for STH uninfected/dewormed versus STH infected/not-dewormed school-aged children from helminth endemic regions. Cautious interpretation is warranted due to high ROB in some of the primary literature and high between study variability in most domains. Notwithstanding, this synthesis provides empirical support for a cognitive and educational benefit of deworming. The benefit of deworming will be enhanced by strategically employing, integrated interventions. Thus, multi-pronged inter-sectoral strategies that holistically address the environmental and structural roots of child cognitive impairment and educational loss in the developing world may be needed to fully realize the benefit of mass deworming programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neuroinvasive larvae of the worldwide occurring zoonotic roundworms Toxocara canis and T. cati may induce neurotoxocarosis (NT) in humans, provoking a variety of symptoms including cognitive deficits as well as neurological dysfunctions. An association with neuropsychological disorders has been discussed. Similar symptoms have been described in T. canis-infected mice, whereas data on T. cati-induced NT are rare. Therefore, it was aimed to obtain insights into the impact on neurobehaviour as well as progression of neurological symptoms and behavioural alterations during the course of NT directly comparing T. canis- and T. cati-infected mice as models for human NT. Methodology/Principal findings: C57BL/6 mice were orally infected with 2000 embryonated T. canis or T. cati eggs, respectively, the control group received tap water. Mice were screened weekly for neurobehavioural alterations and memory function starting one day prior infection until 97 days post infection (pi; T. canis-infection) and day 118 pi (T. cati-infection, uninfected control). Mostly motoric and neurological parameters were affected in T. canis-infected mice starting day 20 pi with severe progression accompanied by stereotypical circling. In contrast, T. cati-infected mice mostly showed reduced response to sudden sound stimulus (indicator for excitability) and flight behaviour starting day 6 pi. Interestingly, enhanced grooming behaviour was observed exclusively in T. cati-infected mice, indicating a possible role of neurotransmitter dysregulation. Reduced exploratory behaviour and memory impairment was observed in both infection groups with delayed onset and less severe progression in T. cati- compared to T. canis-infected mice. Conclusions/Significance: Results highlight the need to consider T. cati beside T. canis as causative agent of human NT. Findings provide valuable hints towards differences in key regulatory mechanisms during T. canis- and T. cati-induced NT, contributing to a comprehensive picture and consequently a broader understanding of NT, which will aid in developing strategies towards prevention in addition to novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last few decades, several studies have analyzed and described knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of populations regarding dengue. However, few studies have applied geometric data analytic techniques to generate indices from KAP domains. Results of such analyses have not been used to determine the potential effects of sociodemographic variables on the levels of KAP. The objective was to determine the sociodemographic factors related to different levels of KAP regarding dengue in two hyper-endemic cities of Colombia, using a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) technique. In the context of a cluster randomized trial, 3,998 households were surveyed in Arauca and Armenia between 2012 and 2013. To generate KAP indexes, we performed a MCA followed by a hierarchical cluster analysis to classify each score in different groups. A quantile regression for each of the score groups was conducted. KAP indexes explained 56.1%, 79.7%, and 83.2% of the variance, with means of 4.2, 1.4, and 3.2 and values that ranged from 1 to 7, 7 and 11, respectively. The highest values of the index denoted higher levels of knowledge and practices. The attitudes index did not show the same relationship and was excluded from the analysis. In the quantile regression, age (0.06; IC: 0.03, 0.09), years of education (0.14; IC: 0.06, 0.22), and history of dengue in the family (0.21; IC: 0.12, 0.31) were positively related to lower levels of knowledge regarding dengue. The effect of such factors gradually decreased or disappeared when knowledge was higher. The practices indexes did not evidence a correlation with sociodemographic variables. These results suggest that the transformation of categorical variables into a single index by the use of MCA is possible when analyzing knowledge and practices regarding dengue from KAP questionnaires. Additionally, the magnitude of the effect of socioeconomic variables on the knowledge scores varies according to the levels of knowledge, suggesting that other factors might be influencing higher levels of knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging. Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced. Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue is becoming an increasing threat to non-endemic countries. In Japan, the reported number of imported cases has been rising, and the first domestic dengue outbreak in nearly 70 years was confirmed in 2014, highlighting the need for greater situational awareness and better-informed risk assessment. Methods: Using national disease surveillance data and publically available traveler statistics, we compared monthly and yearly trends in the destination country-specific dengue notification rate per 100,000 Japanese travelers with those of domestic dengue cases in the respective country visited during 2006–2014. Comparisons were made for countries accounting for the majority of importations; yearly comparisons were restricted to countries where respective national surveillance data were publicly available. Results: There were 1007 imported Japanese dengue cases (Bali, Indonesia (n = 202), the Philippines (n = 230), Thailand (n = 160), and India (n = 152)). Consistent with historic local dengue seasonality, monthly notification rate among travelers peaked in August in Thailand, September in the Philippines, and in Bali during April with a smaller peak in August. While the number of travelers to Bali was greatest in August, the notification rate was highest in April. Annually, trends in the notification rate among travelers to the Philippines and Thailand also closely reflected local notification trends. Conclusion: Travelers to dengue-endemic countries appear to serve as reliable “sentinels”, with the trends in estimated risk of dengue infection among Japanese travelers closely reflecting local dengue trends, both seasonally and annually. Sentinel traveler surveillance can contribute to evidence-based pretravel advice, and help inform risk assessments and decision-making for importation and potentially for subsequent secondary transmission. As our approach takes advantage of traveler data that are readily available as a proxy denominator, sentinel traveler surveillance can be a practical surveillance tool that other countries could consider for implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a paucity of robust epidemiological data on snakebite, and data available from hospitals and localized or time-limited surveys have major limitations. No study has investigated the incidence of snakebite across a whole country. We undertook a community-based national survey and model based geostatistics to determine incidence, envenoming, mortality and geographical pattern of snakebite in Sri Lanka. Methodology/Principal Findings: The survey was designed to sample a population distributed equally among the nine provinces of the country. The number of data collection clusters was divided among districts in proportion to their population. Within districts clusters were randomly selected. Population based incidence of snakebite and significant envenoming were estimated. Model-based geostatistics was used to develop snakebite risk maps for Sri Lanka. 1118 of the total of 14022 GN divisions with a population of 165665 (0.8%of the country’s population) were surveyed. The crude overall community incidence of snakebite, envenoming and mortality were 398 (95% CI: 356–441), 151 (130–173) and 2.3 (0.2–4.4) per 100000 population, respectively. Risk maps showed wide variation in incidence within the country, and snakebite hotspots and cold spots were determined by considering the probability of exceeding the national incidence. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides community based incidence rates of snakebite and envenoming for Sri Lanka. The within-country spatial variation of bites can inform healthcare decision making and highlights the limitations associated with estimates of incidence from hospital data or localized surveys. Our methods are replicable, and these models can be adapted to other geographic regions after re-estimating spatial covariance parameters for the particular region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional role of African elders and their connection with the community make them important stakeholders in community-based disease control programmes. We explored elders’ memories related to interventions against sleeping sickness to assess whether or not past interventions created any trauma which might hamper future control operations. Using a qualitative research framework, we conducted and analysed twenty-four in-depth interviews with Lugbara elders from north-western Uganda. Participants were selected from the villages inside and outside known historical sleeping sickness foci. Elders’ memories ranged from examinations of lymph nodes conducted in colonial times to more recent active screening and treatment campaigns. Some negative memories dating from the 1990s were associated with diagnostic procedures, treatment duration and treatment side effects, and were combined with memories of negative impacts related to sleeping sickness epidemics particularly in HAT foci. More positive observations from the recent treatment campaigns were reported, especially improvements in treatment. Sleeping sickness interventions in our research area did not create any permanent traumatic memories, but memories remained flexible and open to change. This study however identified that details related to medical procedures can remain captured in a community’s collective memory for decades. We recommend more emphasis on communication between disease control programme planners and communities using detailed and transparent information distribution, which is not one directional but rather a dialogue between both parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Community-based randomized controlled trials are often complex pieces of research with significant challenges around the approach to the community, information provision, and decision-making, all of which are fundamental to the informed consent process. We conducted a rapid ethical assessment to guide the preparation for and conduct of a randomized controlled trial of podoconiosis treatment in northern Ethiopia. Methods: A qualitative study was carried out in Aneded woreda, East Gojjam Zone, Amhara Regional State from August to September, 2013. A total of 14 In-depth Interviews (IDIs) with researchers, experts, and leaders, and 8 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) involving 80 participants (people of both gender, with and without podoconiosis), were conducted. Interviews were carried out in Amharic. Data analysis was started alongside collection. Final data analysis used a thematic approach based on themes identified a priori and those that emerged during the analysis. Results: Respondents made a range of specific suggestions, including that sensitisation meetings were called by woreda or kebele leaders or the police; that Health Extension Workers were asked to accompany the research team to patients’ houses; that detailed trial information was explained by someone with deep local knowledge; that analogies from agriculture and local social organisations be used to explain randomisation; that participants in the ‘delayed’ intervention arm be given small incentives to continue in the trial; and that key community members be asked to quell rumours arising in the course of the trial. Conclusion: Many of these recommendations were incorporated into the preparatory phases of the trial, or were used during the course of the trial itself. This demonstrates the utility of rapid ethical assessment preceding a complex piece of research in a relatively research-naive setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]