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In this paper, we report the co-seismic temperature response of the Ms6.3 Kangding earthquake in Sichuan, China, which occurred within a bedrock temperature monitoring station network constructed in the east of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results indicate that two kinds of co-seismic responses of bedrock temperature, exponential and step-rise ones, were recorded at different stations. As for the former, the amplitude of co-seismic response is about 5.6-11.5 mK (the average value is 7.33 mK), while the latter is about 0.31-0.98 mK (the average value is 0.52 mK). These two kinds of responses would be indicative of the two different mechanisms for change in temperature. On the one hand, the exponential responses represent the effects of fluid advection along the borehole wall, which are associated with a finite quantity of heat produced by earthquake-driven transient fluid flow. The step-rise responses, on the other hand, represent the direct response of temperature to change in the crustal stress accompanying with earthquake. We still tested relationship between stress variation and temperature response on the rock samples taken from the boreholes, and the average value is 0.77 mK/MPa. Upon thus, these step-rise temperature responses imply that co-seismic change in mean stress is about 0.40 MPa. We simplify effects of fluid by presuming a one-dimensional model where the flow is either up or down based on a pressure change due to compression or tension. The stress state, compression or tension, deduced by the direction of the fluid flow is qualitatively accordant with the direct response of bedrock temperature to stress change. In summary, characteristic changes in bedrock temperature occurred coincidentally with the earthquake at different stations, agreeing generally with regional stress adjustments accompanying the earthquake. Changes in bedrock temperature do seem to offer a useful means of monitoring dynamic changes in shallow crustal stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Galati-Izvoarele region, located in eastern Romania, came into the public attention relatively recent, when hosted an unusual intense earthquake sequence. During September-November 2013, several hundred shallow crust earthquakes were recorded in the area. There were several attempts to explain the phenomenon, and hypotheses more or less documented have been formed. Some speculations occurred on the potential connection between the seismic swarm and oil industry activities. The paper summarizes the results of local geophysical surveys conducted in the area, jointly analysed with the observed seismicity. The main results of the study reveal the Galati-Izvoarele region as a seismic-active area belonging to the northwest prolongation of North Dobrogea mobile zone. The earthquakes were generated mainly in a highly fragmented local graben-like structure, transversally superposed on the descending slope of the North Dobrogea Promontory. The graben fault system was and might be (re)activated each time when tectonic forces acting in the Carpathians foreland intensify. Changes in the intensity of tectonic forces may reflect in the slip acceleration along Peceneaga-Camena Fault, as observed at the Baspunar Geodynamic Observatory. For example, the paroxysmal phase of the Galati-Izvoarele swarm was shortly preceded by a significant increase of the Peceneaga-Camena Fault slip rate recorded at Baspunar Geodynamic Observatory. To conclude, the Galati-Izvoarele region must be seen as a seismic-prone area and any significant increase of the tectonic stress in the Carpathians foreland may generate another seismic sequence in an unpredictable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we report on an analysis of rupture processes of mining-induced events using the Empirical Green Function approach. The basic goal of this analysis is to estimate the dynamic stress drop—the quantity describing frictional forces at a slipping fault plane during the unstable part of an earthquake. The presented results cover 40 selected events with magnitude Mw ranging between 2.1 and 3.6 occurring in the Rudna copper mine (Poland) between 1996 and 2006. The spatial extent of the seismic network operated by the mine enabled us to estimate not only the dynamic stress drop but also the rupture velocities for most of the events studied. The results are analyzed in terms of correlations of the ratio of static to dynamic stress drop with other parameters characterizing the rupture processes. We also pose a question about the conditions of occurrence of over- and undershooting stress drop mechanisms. For all but two events, the estimated dynamic stress drop ranges between 0.1 and 4 MPa and is dominated by lower values. There are only two exceptions when it reaches the level of the order of 10 MPa. The reliability of these two exceptional cases is low, however. The rupture velocity, needed for dynamic stress drop calculation, was estimated from observed directivity effects. The obtained values ranged between 0.2 and almost 0.9 shear wave velocity, with dominating low velocities. The ratio of static to dynamic stress drop does not clearly correlate with the seismic scalar moment, source radius estimated according to Madariaga's model, or static stress drop. It only positively correlates with the rupture velocity and ranges from values lower than 1 (undershooting mechanisms), mostly for slow events, up to values larger than 1 (overshooting mechanisms) for the majority of fast events. For all events with overshooting-type mechanisms, the estimated rupture velocity Vr was larger than half of the S-wave velocity Vs. On the other hand, for the undershooting-type events the associated rupture velocity was in most cases smaller than 0.6 Vs and large rupture speed was observed only in a few cases for this type of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6°N, 81.6°E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0°N, 103.4°E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0°-50.0°N, 70.0°-110.0°E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Δ x, base time t, reference interval t to t, change interval t to t, and forecasting interval t to t. In this paper, the base time t fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t to t changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, the models with 2° × 2° grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4-8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7-10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2° × 2° and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution laws of LURR (Loading-Unloading Response Ratio) before strong earthquakes, especially the peak point of LURR, are described in this paper. The results of four methods (experimental, numerical simulation, seismic data analysis and with damage mechanics analysis) lead to a consistent conclusion-the evolution laws of LURR before strong earthquakes are that, at the early stage of the seismic cycle, LURR will fluctuate around 1 and in the late stage, it rises swiftly and to its peak point. At some time after this peak point, a catastrophic event or events occur. These do not occur at the peak point, but lag behind. The lag time which is denoted by T depends on the magnitude M of the upcoming earthquake among other factors. In order to consider the influence of geophysical parameters in a specific region such as $$ \dot{\gamma }, $$ E and J, where $$ \dot{\gamma } $$ is the shear strain rate of tectonic loading in situ, E is the sum of radiated energy of all earthquake occurring in a specific region measured during a long time duration (110 years in this paper) divided by the area of the region and the time duration, and J is a parameter denoting the LURR anomaly area weighted with Y (the value of LURR) and represents the expanse and degree of the seismogenic zone. The dimensional analysis method has been used to reveal the relation between M, T and other parameters in situ for more reliable earthquake prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crustal gravitational potential energy (GPE) change induced by earthquakes is an important subject in geophysics and seismology. For the past forty years the research on this subject stayed in the stage of qualitative estimate. In recent few years the 3D dynamic faulting theory provided a quantitative solution of this subject. The theory deduced a quantitative calculating formula for the crustal GPE change using the mathematic method of tensor analysis under the principal stresses system. This formula contains only the vertical principal stress, rupture area, slip, dip, and rake; it does not include the horizontal principal stresses. It is just involved in simple mathematical operations and does not hold complicated surface or volume integrals. Moreover, the hanging wall vertical moving (up or down) height has a very simple expression containing only slip, dip, and rake. The above results are significant to investigate crustal GPE change. Commonly, the vertical principal stress is related to the gravitational field, substituting the relationship between the vertical principal stress and gravitational force into the above formula yields an alternative formula of crustal GPE change. The alternative formula indicates that even with lack of in situ borehole measured stress data, scientists can still quantitatively calculate crustal GPE change. The 3D dynamic faulting theory can be used for research on continental fault earthquakes; it also can be applied to investigate subduction earthquakes between oceanic and continental plates. Subduction earthquakes hold three types: (a) crust only on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (b) crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (c) crust only on the vertical up side of the partial rupture area, and crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the remaining rupture area. For each type we provide its quantitative formula of the crustal GPE change. We also establish a simplified model (called CRW Model) as follows: for Type B and Type C subduction earthquakes, if the seawater average depth on the vertical up side of the rupture area is less than a tenth of the hypocenter depth, then take the approximation that the seawater above the continental plate is replaced by the upper crustal material of the continental plate. The formula of quantitative calculating the crustal GPE change is also provided for this model. Finally, for 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel Chile earthquake, we apply CRW Model and obtain the following results: the crustal GPE change is equal to 1.8 × 10 J, and the hanging wall vertical moving-up height is 1.9 m with respect to the footwall. We believe this paper might be the first report on the quantitative solution of the crustal GPE change for this subduction earthquake; our results and related method will be helpful in research into the earthquakes in Peru-Chile subduction zone and the Andean orogeny. In short, this study expounds a new method for quantitative determining the crustal GPE change caused by subduction earthquakes, which is different from other existing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers Poisson temporal occurrence of earthquakes and presents a way to integrate uncertainties of the estimates of mean activity rate and magnitude cumulative distribution function in the interval estimation of the most widely used seismic hazard functions, such as the exceedance probability and the mean return period. The proposed algorithm can be used either when the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude distribution is accepted or when the nonparametric estimation is in use. When the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude distribution is used the interval estimation of its parameters is based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. When the nonparametric kernel estimation of magnitude distribution is used, we propose the iterated bias corrected and accelerated method for interval estimation based on the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. The changes resulted from the integrated approach in the interval estimation of the seismic hazard functions with respect to the approach, which neglects the uncertainty of the mean activity rate estimates have been studied using Monte Carlo simulations and two real dataset examples. The results indicate that the uncertainty of mean activity rate affects significantly the interval estimates of hazard functions only when the product of activity rate and the time period, for which the hazard is estimated, is no more than 5.0. When this product becomes greater than 5.0, the impact of the uncertainty of cumulative distribution function of magnitude dominates the impact of the uncertainty of mean activity rate in the aggregated uncertainty of the hazard functions. Following, the interval estimates with and without inclusion of the uncertainty of mean activity rate converge. The presented algorithm is generic and can be applied also to capture the propagation of uncertainty of estimates, which are parameters of a multiparameter function, onto this function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable earthquake depth is fundamental to many seismological problems. In this paper, we present a method to jointly invert for centroid depths with local (distance < 5°) seismic waveforms and regional (distance of 5°-15°) Rayleigh wave amplitude spectra on sparse networks. We use earthquake focal mechanisms and magnitudes retrieved with the Cut-and-Paste (CAP) method to compute synthetic amplitude spectra of fundamental mode Rayleigh wave for a range of depths. Then we grid search to find the optimal depth that minimizes the joint misfit of amplitude spectra and local waveforms. As case studies, we apply this method to the 2008 Wells, Nevada Mw6.0 earthquake and a Mw5.6 outer-rise earthquake to the east of Japan Trench in 2013. Uncertainties estimated with a bootstrap re-sampling approach show that this joint inversion approach constrains centroid depths well, which are also verified by independent teleseismic depth-phase data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and associated tsunami have been studied by many researchers from various aspects. This paper reviews studies on the source model of the earthquake and examines tsunami data. The Illapel earthquake occurred in the source region of previous earthquakes in 1943 and 1880. The earthquake source was studied using various geophysical data, such as near-field seismograms, teleseismic waveform and backprojection, GPS and InSAR data, and tsunami waveforms. Most seismological analyses show a duration of ~100 s with a peak at ~50 s. The spatial distribution has some variety, but they all have the largest slip varying from 5 to 16 m located at 31°S, 72°W, which is ~70 km NW of the epicenter. The shallow slip seems to be extended to the trench axis. A deeper slip patch was proposed from high-frequency seismic data. A tsunami earthquake model with a total duration of 250 s and a third asperity south of the epicenter is also proposed, but we show that the tsunami data do not support this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins with a critical assessment of the concept of macroseismic intensity, on which traditional scales, such as MSK and EMS, are based. The main shortcoming identified is the model's failure to consider the spectral features of ground motion. This omission may lead to erroneous seismic zonation, as shown in the paper. As a result, the model is of little interest to engineers who must design and build safe structures while adopting economical solutions. The paper presents a way to radically improve this situation. The starting point for this approach was the experience of the destructive Vrancea earthquake of 1977.03.04, which made it clear that intensity appears to be different for structures having natural periods pertaining to different spectral domains. The solution proposed to the shortcomings of the traditional intensity concept is postulated on a system of analytical expressions, covering definitions of global intensities, of intensities related to oscillation frequency and of intensities related to a definite spectral band. The latter definition lies at the basis of a definition of discrete intensity spectra. Illustrative applications are presented, in relation to global intensities and to discrete intensity spectra. We then analyze an illustrative case in which the use of traditional macroseismic survey techniques led to erroneous seismic zonation. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are presented. Based on the authors' long-term experience, we strongly recommend close interaction between seismologists and engineers in working groups and joint projects targeted on radical improvement of the basic concepts of seismic intensity and of specific analysis procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most active of the world with M = 8 or larger interplate thrust earthquakes occurring every 10 years or so on the average. The identification and characterization of pulses propagated from dominant asperities that control the rupture of these earthquakes is an important problem for seismology and especially for seismic hazard assessment since it can reduce the earthquake destructiveness potential. A number of studies of large Chilean earthquakes have revealed that the source time functions of these events are composed of a number of distinct energy arrivals. In this paper, we identify and characterize the high frequency pulses of dominant asperities using near source strong motion records. Two very well recorded interplate earthquakes, the 1985 Central Chile (Ms = 7.8) and the 2007 Tocopilla (Mw = 7.7), are considered. In particular, the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake was recorded by a network with absolute time and continuos recording. From the study of these strong motion data it is possible to identify the arrival of large pulses coming from different dominant asperities. The recognition of the key role of dominant asperities in seismic hazard assessment can reduce overestimations due to scattering of attenuation formulas that consider epicentral distance or shortest distance to the fault rather than the asperity distance. The location and number of dominant asperities, their shape, the amplitude and arrival time of pulses can be one of the principal factors influencing Chilean seismic hazard assessment and seismic design. The high frequency pulses identified in this paper have permitted us to extend the range of frequency in which the 1985 Central Chile and 2007 Tocopilla earthquakes were studied. This should allow in the future the introduction of this seismological result in the seismic design of earthquake engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused an estimated 230,000 casualties, the worst tsunami disaster in history. A similar-sized tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake, commenced international collaborations on tsunami warning systems, and in the tsunami research community through the Tsunami Commission of International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. The IUGG Tsunami Commission, established in 1960, has been holding the biannual International Tsunami Symposium (ITS). This volume contains selected papers mostly presented at the 22nd ITS, held in the summer of 2005. This introduction briefly summarizes the progress of tsunami and earthquake research as well as international cooperation on tsunami warning systems and the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Brief summaries of each paper are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy tailed random variables (rvs) have proven to be an essential element in modeling a wide variety of natural and human-induced processes, and the sums of heavy tailed rvs represent a particularly important construction in such models. Oriented toward both geophysical and statistical audiences, this paper discusses the appearance of the Pareto law in seismology and addresses the problem of the statistical approximation for the sums of independent rvs with common Pareto distributionF(x)=1 -x-a for 1/2

— The Indo-Burma (Myanmar) subduction boundary is highly oblique to the direction of relative velocity of the Indian tectonic plate with respect to the Eurasian plate. The area includes features of active subduction zones such as a Wadati-Benioff zone of earthquakes, a magmatic arc, thrust and fold belts. It also has features of oblique subduction such as: an arc-parallel strike-slip fault (Sagaing Fault) that takes up a large fraction of the northward component of motion and a buttress (the Mishmi block) that resists the motion of the fore-arc sliver. In this paper, I have examined the seismicity, slip vectors and principal axes of the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes to look for features of active subduction zones and for evidence of slip partitioning as observed in other subduction zones. The data set consists of Harvard CMT solutions of 89 earthquakes (1977–1999 with 4.8&nlE;Mw&nlE;7.2 and depths between 3–140 km). Most of these events are shallow and intermediate depth events occurring within the Indian plate subducting eastward beneath the Indo-Burman ranges. Some shallow events within the fore-arc region have arc-parallel Paxes, reflecting buttressing of the fore-arc sliver at its leading edge. Some of the shallowest events have nearly E-W oriented P axes which might account for recent folding and thrusting. Examination of earthquake slip vectors in this region shows that the slip vector azimuths of earthquakes in the region between 20°–26°N are rotated towards the trench normal, which is an indication of partial partitioning of the oblique convergence. It is seen that all aspects of seismicity, including the paucity of shallow underthrusting earthquakes and the orientation of P axes, are consistent with oblique convergence. The conclusions of this paper are consistent with recent geological studies and interpretations such as the coexistence of eastward subduction, volcanic activity and transcurrent movement through mid-Miocene to Quaternary period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The problem of the coseismic deformation induced by an earthquake on its own fault plane is investigated here. The analysis concentrates on the on-fault displacement field accompanying the occurrence of an earthquake in response to a prescribed uniform shear slip and it is carried out on the basis of the classical analytical model by Okada (1992) for a rectangular fault buried in an elastic homogeneous half-space delimited by a planar free surface. The analysis is subdivided into two separate papers: the first dealing with normal and the second with tangential on-fault displacements. In this first paper, concerning the study of the normal displacement component, the contributions of the source and of the correction introduced by the free surface are investigated separately and their dependence on the fault characteristics is thoroughly discussed. Particular attention is also devoted to the effects of the normal displacement on the fault surface geometry. It will be shown that the main effect is that of deforming the fault itself, with deformation consisting chiefly in a rotation of the plane and in a bending of the fault edges. The rotation angle is negligibly small (on the order of 1–10 μrad) for a single earthquake, although repeated seismic events occurring on the same fault might result in rotations of several degrees over geological time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— This paper regards the on-fault displacement field generated by an earthquake on its own fault plane, with special attention to the tangential displacement vector. It is the continuation and the completion of a previous paper (Armigliato et al., 2003) concerning the analysis of the normal on-fault displacement component. It is here recognised that in addition to the discontinuous shear displacement, which is the main contribution to the seismic dislocation on the fault, there is a tangential displacement contribution that is continuous across the fault. The continuous tangential displacement is exclusively produced by the presence of the free earth's surface. The tangential displacement vector has non-vanishing components in both directions, parallel as well as perpendicular to the imposed uniform shear slip, the first being predominant on the second. We perform a set of computations aimed at evaluating the dependence of the tangential displacement magn itude on the relevant fault parameters for basic cases of rectangular faults embedded in a homogeneous half-space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunami intensity on the S oloviev-I mamura scale is one of the most important parameters for characterizing the overall size of a tsunami generated by submarine earthquakes. Consequently, this parameter is included in both global tsunami databases maintained by the National Centers for Environmental Information/World Data Service (NCEI/WDS) and the Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory of the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (NTL/ICMMG). S. Soloviev made the initial evaluation of the intensities of a large number of destructive historical tsunamis while compiling his two historical catalogs of tsunamis in the Pacific. The Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory under the Expert Tsunami Database Project made further determinations of tsunami intensity for the events after 1975. These intensities have been periodically incorporated into the NCEI/WDS tsunami database under the Global Tsunami Database Joint ICG/ITSU-IUGG/TC Project. In the on-line version of the NCEI/WDS Tsunami Database, the data on tsunami intensity are available only for the events prior to 2003. The main purpose of this paper is to extend the temporal coverage of this important parameter for characterizing tsunamigenic events to the present in order to provide researchers with more data for analyzing the temporal and spatial tsunami occurrence. However, of the 164 tsunamigenic events in the World Ocean from 2000 to the present, we could determine the intensity value for only 44 events that is less than 27 % of the total. For the rest of the events (that is, 73 %), the intensity value cannot be determined due to the lack of data on wave heights from the nearest coast. This shows that despite a great improvement in the tsunami-recording network in the Pacific and other oceanic basins during the last two decades, the data for reliable estimates of tsunami intensity are still problematic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first part of the paper defines the terms and classifications common in earthquake prediction research and applications. This is followed by short reviews of major earthquake prediction programs initiated since World War II in several countries, for example the former USSR, China, Japan, the United States, and several European countries. It outlines the underlying expectations, concepts, and hypotheses, introduces the technologies and methodologies applied and some of the results obtained, which include both partial successes and failures. Emphasis is laid on discussing the scientific reasons why earthquake prediction research is so difficult and demanding and why the prospects are still so vague, at least as far as short-term and imminent predictions are concerned. However, classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, widely applied during the last few decades, have also clearly revealed their limitations. In their simple form, they are time-independent earthquake rupture forecasts based on the assumption of stable long-term recurrence of earthquakes in the seismotectonic areas under consideration. Therefore, during the last decade, earthquake prediction research and pilot applications have focused mainly on the development and rigorous testing of long and medium-term rupture forecast models in which event probabilities are conditioned by the occurrence of previous earthquakes, and on their integration into neo-deterministic approaches for improved time-variable seismic hazard assessment. The latter uses stress-renewal models that are calibrated for variations in the earthquake cycle as assessed on the basis of historical, paleoseismic, and other data, often complemented by multi-scale seismicity models, the use of pattern-recognition algorithms, and site-dependent strong-motion scenario modeling. International partnerships and a global infrastructure for comparative testing have recently been developed, for example the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with test regions in California, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, and the Western Pacific. Algorithms and data bases are operated in a permanently learning and upgrading mode. Future perspectives and research requirements and the feasibility and possible problems encountered with the implementation of earthquake predictions in practice are briefly summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)-suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov's (Phys Solid Earth 1:23-40, ) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dense strong motion observation networks provided us with valuable data for studying strong motion generation from large earthquakes. From kinematic waveform inversion of seismic data, the slip distribution on the fault surface of large earthquakes is known to be spatially heterogeneous. Because heterogeneities in the slip and stress drop distributions control the generation of near-source ground motion, it is important to characterize these heterogeneities for past earthquakes in constructing a source model for reliable prediction of strong ground motion. The stress changes during large earthquakes on the faults recently occurring in Japan are estimated from the detailed slip models obtained by the kinematic waveform inversion. The stress drops on and off asperities are summarized on the basis of the stress change distributions obtained here. In this paper, we define the asperity to be a rectangular area whose slip is 1.5 or more times larger than the average slip over the fault according to the previous study for inland crustal earthquakes. The average static stress drops on the asperities of the earthquakes studied here are in the range 6-23 MPa, whereas those off the asperities are below 3 MPa. We compiled the stress drop on the asperities together with a data set from previous studies of other inland earthquakes in Japan and elsewhere. The static stress drop on the asperity depends on its depth, and we obtained an empirical relationship between the static stress drop and the asperity's depth. Moreover, surface-breaking asperities seemed to have smaller stress drops than buried asperities. Simple ground motion simulations using the characterized asperity source models reveal that deep asperities generate larger ground motion than shallow asperities, because of the different stress drops of the asperities. These characteristics can be used for advanced source modeling in strong ground motion prediction for inland crustal earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900-2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the 'best estimate' of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to quantify the use of past seismicity to forecast the locations of future large earthquakes and introduce optimization methods for the model parameters. To achieve this the binary forecast approach is used where the surface of the Earth is divided into l° × l° cells. The cumulative Benioff strain of m ≥ m c earthquakes that occurred during the training period, Δ Ttr, is used to retrospectively forecast the locations of large target earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ m T during the forecast period, Δ Tfor. The success of a forecast is measured in terms of hit rates (fraction of earthquakes forecast) and false alarm rates (fraction of alarms that do not forecast earthquakes). This binary forecast approach is quantified using a receiver operating characteristic diagram and an error diagram. An optimal forecast can be obtained by taking the maximum value of Pierce’s skill score. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A brief account is given of the principles of stochastic modelling in seismology, with special regard to the role and development of stochastic models for seismicity. Stochastic models are seen as arising in a hierarchy of roles in seismology, as in other scientific disciplines. At their simplest, they provide a convenient descriptive tool for summarizing data patterns; in engineering and other applications, they provide a practical way of bridging the gap between the detailed modelling of a complex system, and the need to fit models to limited data; at the most fundamental level they arise as a basic component in the modelling of earthquake phenomena, analogous to that of stochastic models in statistical mechanics or turbulence theory. As an emerging subdiscipline, statistical seismology includes elements of all of these. The scope for the development of stochastic models depends crucially on the quantity and quality of the available data. The availability of extensive, high-quality catalogues and other relevant data lies behind the recent explosion of interest in statistical seismology. At just such a stage, it seems important to review the underlying principles on which statistical modelling is based, and that is the main purpose of the present paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, ground motion during the Independence Day earthquake of August 15, 1950 (Mw 8.6, B en-M enahem et al., 1974) in the northeastern part of India is estimated by seismological approaches. A hybrid simulation technique which combines the low frequency ground motion simulated from an analytical source mechanism model with the stochastically simulated high-frequency components is used for obtaining the acceleration time histories. A series of ground motion simulations are carried out to estimate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations at important cities and towns in the epicentral region. One sample PGA distribution in the epicentral region encompassing the epicenter is also obtained. It is found that PGA in the epicentral region has exceeded 1 g during this earthquake. The estimated PGA’s are validated to the extent possible using the MMI values. The simulated acceleration time histories can be used for the assessment of important engineering structures in northeastern India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time delays associated with processes leading to a failure or stress relaxation in materials and earthquakes are studied in terms of continuum damage mechanics. Damage mechanics is a quasi-empirical approach that describes inelastic irreversible phenomena in the deformation of solids. When a rock sample is loaded, there is generally a time delay before the rock fails. This period is characterized by the occurrence and coalescence of microcracks which radiate acoustic signals of broad amplitudes. These acoustic emission events have been shown to exhibit power-law scaling as they increase in intensity prior to a rupture. In case of seismogenic processes in the Earth's brittle crust, all earthquakes are followed by an aftershock sequence. A universal feature of aftershocks is that their rate decays in time according to the modified Omori's law, a power-law decay. In this paper a model of continuum damage mechanics in which damage (microcracking) starts to develop when the applied stress exceeds a prescribed yield stress (a material parameter) is introduced to explain both laboratory experiments and systematic temporal variations in seismicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aki (1969) first modeled coda waves of a local earthquake as a superposition of scattered surface waves. This paper attempts to clarify the constituents of surface-wave coda at long periods at very long lapse times. For a large earthquake of magnitude 7 or larger, vertical component oscillation in periods from 90 to 180 s persists for more than 20 hours from the earthquake origin time. Although the early portion of the coda envelope is successfully modeled by assuming incoherent scattered Rayleigh waves by heterogeneities distributed all over the Earth, the later potion of the observed coda envelope (roughly later than 35,000 s) has systematically larger amplitude than theoretical prediction. To clarify the cause of this discrepancy, we studied the constituents of vertical-component seismograms of three large earthquakes recorded by the F-net in Japan using the f- k power spectral analysis. We found that the direct and scattered fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves of velocity about 3.7 km/s are dominant in the earlier part of each envelope. It justifies the use of a scattering model of the fundamental Rayleigh waves for synthesizing the envelope. At lapse times later than 20,000 s–35,000 s, higher modes with phase velocities around 20 km/s become dominant. The transition time to the dominance of higher modes is found to become earlier for a deeper focus earthquake. The small coda attenuation factor from (1.90±0.23) × 10−3 to (2.38±0.32) × 10−3 estimated from later coda envelopes recorded at IRIS stations distributed worldwide also agrees with the attenuation factor of spheroidal modes according to PREM. We may interpret that higher mode waves are uniformly distributed at large lapse time due to large velocity dispersion and/or scattering and they dominate over the fundamental mode waves because of smaller attenuation in the lower mantle. The coda attenuation measurement proposed by Aki is found to be useful even for long periods and at very large lapse times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration ( SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration ( PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra ( UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 ( M S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 ( M S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake ( M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the mmax magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of fault interaction models has triggered the need for an accurate estimation of seismicity rate changes following the occurrence of an earthquake. Several statistical methods have been developed in the past to serve this purpose, each relying on different assumptions (e.g., stationarity, gaussianity) pertaining to the seismicity process.In this paper we review these various approaches, discuss their limitations, and propose further improvements. The feasibility of mapping robust seismicity rate changes, and more particularly rate decreases (i.e., seismicity shadows), in the first few days of an aftershock sequence, is examined. To this aim, the hypothesis of large numbers of earthquakes, hence the use of Gaussian statistics, as is usually assumed, must be dropped.Finally, we analyse the modulation in seismicity rates following the 1992, June 28M w 7.3 Landers earthquake in the region of the 1992, April 22M w 6.1 Joshua Tree earthquake. Clear instances of early triggering (i.e., in the first few days) followed by a seismicity quiescence, are observed. This could indicate the existence of two distinct interaction regimes, a first one caused by the destabilisation of active faults by the travelling seismic waves, and a second one due to the remaining static stress perturbation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time t between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for t for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensureEt =1, the interevent time has a universal distributionF, thenFmust be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent earthquakes in California and Japan have shown the fundamental role that the road infrastructure plays in emergencies. In fact, only the maintenance of a sufficient level of efficiency can help to quickly reach the affected areas and thus avoid further serious consequences. The necessity of guaranteeing the functionality of the transport network during seismic events therefore requires seismic risk planning extended also to the road infrastructures in order to support the management of post-earthquake emergencies. Analogously it is fundamentally important to have analysis instruments of the road system able to preventatively evaluate the effects of earthquakes in order to identify possible emergencies, therefore preparing a program of intervention to reduce seismic risk on road networks. This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of seismic risk of road infrastructures according to the following points:•Study of seismic hazard of the site for the definition of a seismic scenario using attenuation models in relation to historical seismology and the geological and tectonic characteristics of the territory;•Analysis of the direct exposure connected to the probability of the presence of road users on the different parts of the network directly exposed to the seismic event;•Analysis of the indirect exposure relative to the distribution of the population and the infrastructures for which post-earthquake accessibility must be guaranteed;•Evaluation of the functional vulnerability in relation to the potential replaceability of damaged stretches considering network configuration and geometrical characteristics;•Evaluation of structural vulnerability of the stretch correlated to the characteristics (structural, mechanical, technological, etc.) of the different components (bridges, embankments, trenches, tunnels) that make up the stretches obtained by the use of correctly elaborated tables for each component.The determination of global risk indexes of the single stretches and of the network, evaluated by means of a relationship between the ascertained parameters derived from the investigation of the previous points, provides the necessary information for the definition of mitigation measures to reduce the risk and for management planning before and after disaster. The proposed methodology, which has already been applied to a restricted area, is currently being applied to the province of Catania (Sicily, Italy), which is one of the geographical regions of highest seismic risk in Europe, and its future extension to all of eastern Sicily is foreseeable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

- An algorithm recently developed by RUNDLEet al. (2002) to find regions of anomalous seismic activity associated with large earthquakes identified the location of anM w = 5.6 earthquake near Calexico, Mexico. In this paper we analyze the regional seismicity before this event, and a nearbyM w = 5.7 event, using time-to-failure algorithms developed by BOWMANet al. (1998) and BOWMAN and KING (2001a,b). The former finds the radius of a circular region surrounding the epicenter that optimizes the time-to-failure acceleration of seismic release. The latter optimizes acceleration based on the expected stress accumulation pattern for a dislocation source. Both methods found a period of accelerating seismicity in an optimal region, the size of which agrees with previously proposed scaling relations. This positive result suggests that the Rundle algorithm may provide a useful technique to identify regions of accelerating seismicity, which can then be analyzed using signal optimization time-to-failure techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude mmax for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of mmax. The three estimates of mmax for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above, are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45. All three estimates are nearly identical, although higher than the value 7.99 obtained by Field et al. (1999). In general, since the third procedure is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude mmax is considered more reliable than the other two which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simplified technique for simulation of wide-band strong motion based on simple regression relations and Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) technique by Irikura (1986) is presented in this paper. The method uses the acceleration envelope as a shaping window for a filtered white Gaussian noise, to get the synthetic accelerogram from each subfault. Correction factors for slip of large and small events and transmission factors at each boundary of different layers are included in this synthetic accelerogram. The synthetic accelerogram obtained from each subfault is used as the Green’s function to get resultant records. Simulations are made for the confirmed models of the Uttarkashi and the Chamoli earthquakes at a number of stations to get wide-band strong ground motion. The comparison of synthetic with the observed records over a wide range of frequencies for two different Himalayan earthquakes establishes the efficacy of the present technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The 1940 (Mw=7.7) and 1977 (Mw=7.4) Vrancea earthquakes (Romania) inflicted heavy damage and casualties in Bucharest and the statistics indicate a recurrence interval of 25 years for Mw ≥ 7.0 events. Under these circumstances, the seismic microzonation represents important information for detailed urban planning that establishes an appropriate level of preparedness to the earthquake threat. This paper reviews the main studies concerning the seismicity of the Vrancea region, the site conditions of the city, the characterization of the building stock, and the codes of practice that regulate the antiseismic design. The first-order microzonation of Bucharest was performed starting from the existing database of structural and geotechnical parameters. New insights originating from direct instrumental observation and interpretation of the local effects as well as realistic numerical modeling that update and improve the input data necessary for a detailed microzoning map of the city are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The study of surface deformation due to seismic activity is often made using dislocations with uniform slip and simple geometries. A better modeling of coseismic and postseismic surface displacements can be obtained by using dislocations with variable slip and nonregular shapes. This is consistent with the asperity model of fault surfaces, assuming a friction distribution on faults made of locked zones with much higher friction than surrounding zones. In this paper we consider the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. The coseismic surface displacements in the Colfiorito zone are used in order to infer the slip distribution on the fault surface at different stages of the sequence. The displacement field has been modeled varying the slip distribution on the fault, and comparing the deformation observed by SAR and GPS techniques with model results. The slip distribution is calculated by Monte Carlo simulations on a normal fault with the dip angle equal to 40°. A good approximation is obtained by using square asperity units of 1.5×1.5 km2. In the first stage, we employed a simplified model with uniform slip, in which each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, and in the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results show that the 1997 seismic events of the sequence can be modeled by irregular dislocations, obtaining a good fit to the DInSAR and GPS observations. The model also confirms the results of previous studies by a different methodology, defining the distribution of asperities on the fault plane using the fault geometry, the geodetic data and the seismic moment of the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. Furthermore, the analysis of 1997 aftershocks in the seismogenic region shows a strong correlation between most events and the asperity distribution, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwest Portugal, the Gulf of Cadiz and Morocco are under the potential threat of natural hazards linked to seismicity and tsunami generation. We report the results of two multi-channel seismic (MCS) surveys carried out in 1992 and 1998 along the continental margin and oceanic crust of SW Iberia. This MCS data set shows the evidence of the compressional deformation which involves both the continental and the oceanic crust of the study area. The area of deformation extends from the southern border of the Tagus Abyssal Plain to the Seine Abyssal Plain, encompassing the continental margin of SW Portugal. Most of the structures observed are probably related to a Mid-Miocene phase of Africa-Europe plate convergence. In this paper we discuss the recent advances on the identification of the tectonic structures that are still active and that may generate great earthquakes and tsunamis. The tectonic structures identified are located respectively at the Guadalquivir Bank, along the eastern border of the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain and along the southern continental slope of SW Portugal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Submarine and shoreline slope failures that accompany large earthquakes and large tsunamis are triggered by several mechanisms. Triggering mechanisms range from direct effects, such as inertial forces from earthquake shaking, to indirect effects, such as rapid drawdown that occurs when an earthquake-generated tsunami first approaches a shoreline. Soil shear strength also plays an important role in earthquake-related slope failures. Earthquakes change the shear strength of the soil by inducing excess pore water pressures. These excess pore water pressures change with time after the earthquake, resulting in changes in shear strength and slope stability with time. This paper reviews earthquake-related triggering mechanisms for submarine and shoreline slope failures. The variation in shear strength with time following an earthquake is examined and it is shown that delayed slope failures after an earthquake can occur as a result of changes in earthquake-induced excess pore water pressures and shear strength with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Some underwater landslides are triggered by strong ground motions caused by earthquakes. This paper reviews current concepts and trends in the characterization of strong ground motion. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude-distance-soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near-fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]