Search

• Ice thickness, ice conditions, and ice class directly affect shipping costs. • Ice conditions are softening, decreasing the expected NSR fee level. • Ships of some ice-classes can sail within the NSR independently. • Ships without ice protection are unprofitable for shipping in the NSR. • The NSR icebreaker escort fee may be several times lower than the SCR toll. Even though the Arctic ice is melting and Polar routes are being extensively studied, the amount of cargo shipped through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) remains low. Employing current data on the NSR operation provided by China Ocean Shipping Company, this paper investigates annual profitability of the NSR-SCR combined use, when a vessel sails through the NSR in summer and the SCR in winter. A Handysize general cargo ship is used as a model vessel since it allows reaching nearly maximum load rate and can sail through shallow areas of the NSR. This article proposes including ice thickness and ice conditions in the traditional cost comparison. The first parameter directly affects sailing speed, and hence other cost variables, while the second one is included in the official NSR navigation rules and connected with icebreaker escort fee. This paper also contributes to the existing literature by considering total shipping cost as a function of a vessel's ice class with corresponding building premiums and fuel consumption increments. The proposed approach is easily replicable, so shipping companies might use it to rethink their positions on shipping through the NSR. The overall conservative comparison reveals that the NSR-SCR combined shipping scheme can only be more competitive than sailing through the SCR if a shipping company provides a sufficient load rate on the NSR leg and uses a ship of a reliable ice class to navigate throughout the summer navigation. The NSR-SCR combined shipping scheme becomes attractive if the NSR leg is short, and the crude oil price is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• GHG emissions of Arctic LNG transportation are estimated. • Emissions related environmental costs are accounted. • Unit cost of LNG transportation via Northern Sea Route is estimated. • LNG may be the most efficient fuel in total cost saving and emission reduction. • Policy suggestions for energy use on Arctic routes have been recommended. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) might be a promising route for LNG transportation from the LNG plants in Russia's Yamal Peninsula to Northeast Asia countries with significant savings in sailing distance and time compared to traditional Suez Canal Route (SCR). However, surging transportation activities along NSR might harm the environment with the greenhouse gas (GHG) and atmospheric pollutant emissions. Little research has been done to investigate the environmental and techno-economic potential of transporting LNG via NSR. Furthermore, this paper analyses the relevance of an Arc4 ice-class vessel, not currently used for this route. This paper targets to address the question that how much GHGs and atmospheric pollutants does a carrier emit and how is the feasibility of different fuel types for the summer and winter transportation considering environmental impacts. An environmental and techno-economic model quantifying the emissions and total costs have been developed and 3 scenarios of using different fuel types (HFO, MDO, LNG) are proposed to investigate the environmental and economic performances in summer and winter respectively. Our results reveal that the unit cost of transporting LNG via NSR is around 90 U.S. $ cents/GJ in summer and 120 $ cents/GJ in winter considering environmental cost. The findings also show that in the short run when regardless of environmental cost, HFO is still the preferable option for ships by its competitive cost. While when considering the environmental cost, LNG has better economic and environmental performance than other fuel types. So, for the long run, LNG might be encouraged to be the main fuel used in Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This research presents an exhaustive assessment of urban freight in São Paulo. • Indicators provide a baseline for assessing trends in freight efficiency over time. • This paper has potential significant impact on other Latin-American cities. • This study provides tools to complement global emission inventories in urban areas. • Results provide freight metrics to Brazil's National Determined Commitments (NDC). On-road freight transportation predominates in in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), railways and other means of transportation do not have the same importance, being is responsible for around a large quantity greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. This manuscript presents an assessment of urban road freight in the MRSP based on primary metrics carried out by the Municipality's survey in 2016 on light- and heavy-duty vehicles (LDVs and HDVs). Origin (O) and destination (D) freight activity indicators provide a baseline for assessing trends in efficiency and operational performance. These descriptive (DIs) and key performance indicators (KPIs) come directly and indirectly from the O and D company vehicle survey and identify space and temporal distributions of main freight transport sources by vehicle and commodity types. This paper addresses the need to use the vehicle survey to understand road freight activity and transportation in MRSP and with successive editions of the freight survey it will be possible to track the development of the commodity's transport content to reveal a chronological development in freight logistics and emissions. As the metropolitan region sprawls, it is important to track these metrics in order to define and evaluate sound measures and policies to improve life and air quality. Assumptions and analyses of freight road transport in São Paulo find significant new perspectives to handle several issues in order to assess and improve vehicle utilization, fuel efficiency and CO 2 emissions in future over time. This research has potential significant impact in other Latin American cities and the results can be extrapolated to other local freight inventories and be used to provide freight metrics to be included in Brazil's National Determined Commitments (NDC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A modular, adaptive, and autonomous transit system (MAATS) can be adaptive to dynamic traffic demands. • A bi-level optimization method is developed to minimize the number of passenger transfers during in-motion transfer. • Experiments show the system is sensitive to demand ratios. • Potential implementations and practices are extensively discussed. Dynamic traffic demand has been a longstanding challenge for the conventional transit system design and operation. The recent development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) makes it increasingly realistic to develop the next generation of transportation systems with the potential to improve operational performance and flexibility. In this study, we propose an innovative transit system with autonomous modular buses (AMBs) that is adaptive to dynamic traffic demands and not restricted to fixed routes and timetables. A unique transfer operation, termed as "in-motion transfer", is introduced in this paper to transfer passengers between coupled modular buses in motion. A two-stage model is developed to facilitate in-motion transfer operations in optimally designing passenger transfer plans and AMB trajectories at intersections. In the proposed AMB system, all passengers can travel in the shortest path smoothly without having to actually alight and transfer between different bus lines. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed transit system results in shorter travel time and a significantly reduced average number of transfers. While enjoying the above-mentioned benefits, the modular, adaptive, and autonomous transit system (MAATS) does not impose substantially higher energy consumption in comparison to the conventional bus system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) - Connected Vehicle technology in the USA - where vehicle and roadside infrastructure communicates to deliver more intelligent traffic management, is one of a range of ITS technologies emerging as a key component in pursuit of the wider objectives of improved urban mobility. This paper presents the Compass4D project, which deployed a C-ITS system in seven European cities and coordinated the common evaluation of the technology for three services focusing specifically on safety and environmental objectives under real-world driving conditions. The significance of the Compass4D deployments and results provides some of the first evidence of the effectiveness of C-ITS in real world conditions. Both light and heavy vehicles showed efficiency savings of 2–6%. Equipped buses exhibited a variety of results with one pilot site showing a reduction of greater than 200gCO 2 per bus route per trip whilst other buses showed an increase in total emissions. The paper presents results from both field trials and microscopic simulation studies (to understand the network- or city-wide impacts of the technology). It discusses the results in detail before outlining the potential for further deployment in terms of the impact on energy efficiency and environmental objectives. Government and road operators will benefit from the results to gain an understanding of the potential impact of services given specific deployment characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Gasoline price elasticity for OECD is −0.7 (three times that for non-OECD). • Diesel price elasticity for OECD is −0.35 (modestly larger than that for non-OECD). • Gasoline GDP elasticity for non-OECD is around 1.0 (twice that for OECD). • For OECD, diesel GDP elasticity is considerably larger than that for gasoline. • For non-OECD, diesel GDP elasticity is similar to that for gasoline. The current paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between economic growth, fuel prices, and the demand for gasoline and diesel within the transportation sector by assembling a wide panel dataset of fuel consumption and prices for 35 OECD and 83 Non-OECD countries. The unbalanced data spans 1978–2016, with the full 39 years of data for 36 countries. In addition, our dynamic panel estimates address nonstationarity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. The OECD panel price elasticity for gasoline is around −0.7 or about three times that for the non-OECD panel; whereas, the OECD price elasticity for diesel is only modestly larger (in absolute terms) than the non-OECD elasticity (−0.3 and −0.2, respectively). For gasoline, the non-OECD GDP elasticity is around 1.0 or about twice that for OECD countries. For the OECD panel, the diesel GDP elasticity is about three times that of the OECD GDP elasticity for gasoline; whereas, for the non-OECD panel, the two GDP elasticities (for gasoline and diesel) are about the same. For non-OECD countries, subpanels based on geography and income produced mostly similar results. We found no evidence of GDP or price asymmetric effects for the 1978–2016 period. Lastly, the large (at least for the OECD panel) and statistically significant transportation price elasticities reported here provide stark contrast to the economy-wide energy price elasticities calculated in Liddle and Huntington (2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the potential of fuel tax reforms to curb harmful air pollutants and carbon emissions from road transport in Europe. We provide robust estimates for the responsiveness of fuel consumption to changes in prices, which constitute a key determinant for emissions pathways in response to policy interventions. We show that accounting for the manifest shift to diesel in the European vehicle fleet, as well as slow consumption adjustments over time yield strong evidence that petrol and diesel demand are more price elastic already in the short run than previous studies suggest. In particular, we present evidence that diesel demand in Europe tends to be more price elastic than petrol demand, when instrumenting prices with excise taxes to account for endogeneity. Inspired by recent fuel tax reform proposals, we then show that both (i) a repeal of the preferential tax treatment for diesel and (ii) an introduction of a carbon content-based tax, could avoid considerable amounts of health damaging air pollutant exhaust while at the same time contributing substantially to achieving the EU climate policy goals for 2020. In many countries, abandoning the diesel tax advantage has nearly as strong an effect as a 50€/tCO 2 tax on fuel. Both reforms have significant revenue potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses historical energy consumption trends of the EU road transport sector and examines the role of key determinants, such as economic and population growth, fuel prices, passenger and tonne-kilometres and vehicle fleet characteristics. In light of the EU 2030 and 2050 energy and climate targets, the paper assesses the energy efficiency and decarbonisation progress from 2000 to 2018. A detailed analysis is carried out using a balanced panel dataset from 1995 to 2018 and a test for causality between energy consumption and the selected explanatory variables. The results suggest that the declining trend of the normalised energy consumption of cars, trucks and light vehicles, which both dropped significantly in 2018 compared to 2000, can be related to energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies adopted by the EU and its Member States over the studied period. Decomposition analysis based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index technique confirms the role of energy efficiency gains in curbing energy consumption of road transport, even with the strong upward force exerted by motorisation and population effects, especially in passenger transport. It also suggests that during the recession years (2008–2013), road transport consumption fell due to a sharp drop in the mileage but not in the motorisation effect, which continued to drive up consumption even in this period. Despite some positive developments, the increased demand for road transportation has led to continued energy consumption growth. This has been further compounded by differences between real-world and vehicle certification fuel consumption data. The article highlights the need to strengthen the current policy framework at the EU and MS levels in the next decade to reach the long-term decarbonisation targets. In the context of these targets, a more in-depth investigation of the real impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation efforts will also become increasingly important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Evaluated the benefits and challenges of performance-based fuel policy. • Consolidated current research in fuel burn prediction and policy making. • Proposed means for efficient performance-based fuel policy implementation. While fuel regulations traditionally rely on a prescriptive safety margin approach that includes a significant buffer for fuel loadings, the current enhancements in computational power and understanding of in-flight uncertainties allow for the implementation of a performance-based approach. A performance-based approach is a risk-assessed fuel uplift decision dependent on historical performance and is becoming increasingly plausible and recommended by modern civil aviation authorities. This paper investigates the evolution of fuel planning policies and explores the potential integration of current research pertaining to performance-based fuel policy-making. We consolidate the developments of three research areas - fuel consumption estimation, in-flight uncertainty quantification and decision analysis, and provide insight for regulators and airline operators in identifying potential transformation towards more efficient operations. Three future research directions in (1) risk assessment on fuel uplift decision, (2) uncertainty quantification and propagation and (3) policy assessment and evaluation, are suggested to assist policy-makers in efficiently implementing a performance-based fuel policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a green transport means, electric vehicle (EV) has received widespread attention in recent years and an increasing number of cities have been establishing their EV transport systems including EV fleet management and charging infrastructure. Transport policy-makers are concerning about the system performance of an EV charging system measured by energy consumption and user experience. We in this paper aim to develop an effective method for the expected total energy consumption estimation (ETEC) of EV charging systems deployed in a dense city. To achieve this objective, we firstly introduce the nonlinear charging profile, its impacts on energy consumption as well as user experience, and present an approach for estimating the nonlinear charging time. We then elaborate our method to estimate energy consumption for one-time EV charging by addressing four kinds of energy losses in charging process. Next, charging frequency by considering multi-type EVs, and their heterogeneities and different charging needs for normal and fast charging systems is analyzed in depth. These two together determine the network-wide energy consumption and a pro-rated approach is used to figure out the spatial distribution of energy consumption. A case study of Singapore is conducted in the end to validate the proposed methodology. Numerical results reveal a trade-off between energy saving and user experience, and also demonstrate the importance of considering heterogeneities of driving range, charging preference and daily travel mileage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We evaluated fuel consumption impacts of autonomous vehicles in United States. • The proposed data-rich analytical framework considers dynamics in fleet turnover and fuel efficiency. • We utilized a network activity database contains detailed information of national road links. • Impacts of automation on fuel consumption are quite wide-ranging, −45% to +30%. • Automation on urban road has larger potential on fuel savings than highway automation. Abstract Autonomous vehicles are drawing significant attention from governments, manufacturers and consumers. Experts predict them to be the primary means of transportation by the middle of this century. Recent literature shows that vehicle automation has the potential to alter traffic patterns, vehicle ownership, and land use, which may affect fuel consumption from the transportation sector. In this paper, we developed a data-rich analytical framework to quantify system-wide fuel impacts of automation in the United States by integrating (1) a dynamic vehicle sales, stock, and usage model, (2) an historical transportation network-level vehicle miles traveled (VMT)/vehicle activity database, and (3) estimates of automation's impacts on fuel efficiency and travel demand. The vehicle model considers dynamics in vehicle fleet turnover and fuel efficiency improvements of conventional and advanced vehicle fleet. The network activity database contains VMT, free-flow speeds, and historical speeds of road links that can help us accurately identify fuel-savings opportunities of automation. Based on the model setup and assumptions, we found that the impacts of automation on fuel consumption are quite wide-ranging—with the potential to reduce fuel consumption by 45% in our "Optimistic" case or increase it by 30% in our "Pessimistic" case. Second, implementing automation on urban roads could potentially result in larger fuel savings compared with highway automation because of the driving features of urban roads. Through scenario analysis, we showed that the proposed framework can be used for refined assessments as better data on vehicle-level fuel efficiency and travel demand impacts of automation become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to measure the rebound effect (RE) or take back effect of jet fuel prices for air transport by using the unbalanced panel data of the airlines of the Association of European Airlines (AEA) from 1986 to 2013. Three equations are set and modelled simultaneously: (1) traffic demand, (2) aircraft, and (3) fuel efficiency. We consider endogenous changes in fuel efficiency, and the impact of environmental policy such as the EU ETS is also included. Our results show the smaller short run RE, but much larger RE in a long run of air transport. The short-run RE for 1986–1999 is 2.9% and 2.1% for 2000–2013, while the long-run RE is 49% for 1986–1999 and 19% for 2000–2013, respectively. It indicates the effectiveness of the regulation or economic instrument to reduce emissions (fuel consumption) in the air transport market by improving fuel efficiency due to the large RE compared to other sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of transport energy consumption and transport infrastructure on economic growth by utilizing panel data on MENA countries (the Middle East and North Africa region) for the period of 2000–2016. The MENA region panel is divided into three sub-groups of countries: GCC panel (containing the Gulf Cooperation Council countries), N-GCC panel (containing countries that are not members of the Gulf Cooperation Council), and North African countries (called MATE—Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt). Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we find that transport energy consumption significantly adds to economic growth in MENA, N-GCC and MATE regions. Transport infrastructure positively contributes to economic growth in all regions. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analysis shows the feedback effect of transport energy consumption and transport infrastructure with economic growth. The empirical results add a new dimension to the importance of investing in modern infrastructure that facilitates the use of more energy-efficient modes and alternative technologies that positively affect the economy with minimizing negative externalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether the energy efficiency of vessels is reflected in sales prices in the second-hand market. Using unique data of nearly 1600 sales transactions over a 21-year period, we consider a hedonic pricing framework in which we control for market conditions, vessel specifications and buyers’ country of origin to identify the specific impact from energy efficiency. Using two indicators for energy efficiency, we find a negative relationship between energy efficiency and sale price with an elasticity around 0.4. Furthermore, our results show a reduction in the influence of energy efficiency on asset values during the drybulk market boom in 2003–2008 compared to the remainder of the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency has become a primary energy policy goal in Europe and many countries and has conditioned the policies towards energy-intensive sectors such as road freight transport. However, energy efficiency improvements can lead to changes in the demand for energy services that offset some of the achieved energy savings in the form of rebound effects. Consequently, forecasts of energy savings can be overstated. This paper analyses the energy efficiency and rebound effects for road freight transport in 15 European countries during the 1992–2012 period. We use a recent methodology to estimate an energy demand function using a stochastic frontier analysis approach and examine the influence of key features of rebound effect in the road freight transport sector. We obtain, on average, a fuel efficiency of 89% and a rebound effect of 4%. Our results indicate that the achieved energy efficiencies are retained to a large extent. We also find, among other results, that the rebound effect is higher in countries with higher fuel efficiency and better quality of logistics. Finally, a simulation analysis shows significant environmental externalities costs even in countries with lower rebound effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas emissions related to energy production is the main cause of climate change. Transportation accounts for 30% of the total energy consumption, and a reduction in the energy used for mobility is necessary. The 2000-watt society is an environmental concept that fixes a sustainable limit to the energy consumption in different sectors, including mobility. This paper evaluates the energy consumption in several mobility scenarios, and it assesses whether the goal suggested by the 2000-watt society is achievable. We investigate the social characteristics and travel habits of the population living in a case study area. Then, we calculate the modal shift induced by transportation policies such as car-sharing, car-pooling and car-free district. We evaluate the resulting energy consumption, and we compare it with the 2000-watt society limit. We conclude that only a set of measures combining car usage reduction, increase in walking and cycling, and reduction in the total travel distance can achieve the needed energy reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time charter market for ships represents a classical example of the principal-agent problem, where shipowners can opt to invest in energy efficient ships, yet any savings in fuel expenditures accrue to the charterers. In a competitive and efficient market, ships that have more fuel-efficient designs should, all else equal, obtain a rate premium to reflect the fuel savings. In this paper we investigate empirically the determinants of timecharter rates using a comprehensive panel data set of over 9100 timecharter fixtures for bulk carriers above 40,000 DWT between January 2001 and January 2016. We test for the presence of an energy efficiency premium using four different definitions of efficiency, while controlling for key macro, ship-specific, and contract-specific variables. Our findings suggest that the “market rate” for a standardised vessel dominates in terms of explanatory power, but that vessel age, fuel prices, place of delivery and DWT also are significant determinants across sizes. We show that the earlier findings on the energy efficiency premium in the literature are not robust when expanding the sample in time and vessel size. Using a substantially longer sample across an entire market cycle, we show that only 14–27% of fuel savings are reflected in a higher rate during normal market conditions, while the sign of the relationship flips during market “booms” such that energy inefficient vessels attract a premium. We introduce several explanations as to why there is an apparent market failure and suggest policy measures that could address this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric transit buses have been recognized as an important alternative to diesel buses with many environmental benefits. Electric buses employing lithium titanate batteries can provide uninterrupted transit service thanks to their ability of fast charging. However, fast charging may result in high demand charges which will increase the fuel costs thereby limiting the electric bus market penetration. In this paper, we simulated daily charging patterns and demand charges of a fleet of electric buses in Tallahassee, Florida and identified an optimal charging strategy to minimize demand charges. It was found that by using a charging threshold of 60–64%, a $160,848 total saving in electricity cost can be achieved for a five electric bus fleet, comparing to a charging threshold of 0–28%. In addition, the impact of fleet sizes on the fuel cost was investigated. Fleets of 4 and 12 buses will achieve the lowest cost per mile driven when one fast charger is installed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of feedback, based on In-Vehicle Data Recorders (IVDR), to improve driving behavior, increase driving safety, and reduce fuel consumption. We developed a framework for driving-behavior measurement, incorporating second-by-second data collected by IVDRs. IVDR units were installed in over 150 vehicles driven by more than 350 drivers for over a year. The experiment was divided into three stages. The first stage was a “blind”, control stage, with no feedback. The second stage incorporated verbal feedback given only to riskiest drivers. In the third stage all drivers received a bi-weekly written report about their driving performance. Safety events, such as braking, lateral acceleration or speeding, were recorded. Supplementary data regarding safety related events and fuel consumption were also collected. Safety incidents and fuel consumption were modeled as a function of IVDR measurement-based events, in order to identify which events best reflect safety incidents and excessive fuel consumption. Our results show that braking events best explain safety incidents, and all events together best explain fuel consumption. In addition, we found that for the riskiest drivers, feedback significantly reduced the IVDR events. Our models show that feedback can lead to a reduction of 8% in safety incidents, and 3–10% in fuel consumption, with a larger reduction obtained for large vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an analytical process that computes the optimal operating successions of a rail vehicle to minimize energy consumption. Rising energy prices and environmental concerns have made energy conservation a high priority for transportation operations. The cost of energy consumption makes up a large portion of the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs of transit especially rail transit systems. Energy conservation or reduction in energy cost may be one of the effective ways to reduce transit operating cost, therefore improve the efficiency of transit operations.From a theoretical point of view, the problem of energy efficient train control can be formulated as one of the functions of Optimal Control Theory. However, the classic numerical optimization methods such as discrete method of optimum programming are too slow to be used in an on-board computer even with the much improved computation power, today. The contribution of this particular research is the analytical solution that gives the sequence of optimal controls and equations to find the control change points. As a result, a calculation algorithm and a computer program for energy efficient train control has been developed. This program is also capable of developing energy efficient operating schedules by optimizing distributions of running time for an entire route or any part of rail systems.We see the major application of the proposed algorithms in fully or partially automated Train Control Systems. The modern train control systems, often referred as “positive” train control (PTC), have collected a large amount of information to ensure safety of train operations. The same data can be utilized to compute the optimum controls on-board to minimize energy consumption based on the algorithms proposed in this paper. Most of the input data, such as track plan, track profile, traction and braking characteristics, speed limits and required trip time are located in an on-board database and/or they can be transmitted via radio link to be processed by the proposed algorithm and program. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Experts predict that new automobiles will be capable of driving themselves under limited conditions within 5–10 years, and under most conditions within 10–20 years. Automation may affect road vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a host of ways, positive and negative, by causing changes in travel demand, vehicle design, vehicle operating profiles, and choices of fuels. In this paper, we identify specific mechanisms through which automation may affect travel and energy demand and resulting GHG emissions and bring them together using a coherent energy decomposition framework. We review the literature for estimates of the energy impacts of each mechanism and, where the literature is lacking, develop our own estimates using engineering and economic analysis. We consider how widely applicable each mechanism is, and quantify the potential impact of each mechanism on a common basis: the percentage change it is expected to cause in total GHG emissions from light-duty or heavy-duty vehicles in the U.S. Our primary focus is travel related energy consumption and emissions, since potential lifecycle impacts are generally smaller in magnitude. We explore the net effects of automation on emissions through several illustrative scenarios, finding that automation might plausibly reduce road transport GHG emissions and energy use by nearly half – or nearly double them – depending on which effects come to dominate. We also find that many potential energy-reduction benefits may be realized through partial automation, while the major energy/emission downside risks appear more likely at full automation. We close by presenting some implications for policymakers and identifying priority areas for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns about local air pollution and climate change have prompted all levels of government to consider a variety of policies to reduce vehicle dependence and fuel consumption, as the transportation sector is one of the largest sources of local and global emissions. Because many of the policy options under consideration are market-based (e.g., gasoline tax, carbon tax), it is important to consider how the impacts would vary across space and affect different subpopulations. Evaluating incidence is relevant for both the expected costs and benefits of a particular policy, however detailed data on vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption allowing for the distributions of these variables to be estimated at a fine geographic scale is rarely available. This paper uses a unique dataset with more than 20 million vehicles in California to derive estimates of VMT and fuel consumption in order to examine the spatial distribution of impacts for an increase in the price of gasoline as well as the consequences of using different statistics for policy evaluation. Results show that VMT and fuel consumption distributions are not symmetrically distributed and vary significantly within transportation planning regions. To understand the potential implications of this asymmetry, we do a back of the envelope comparison using the mean and mode of the VMT or fuel consumption distribution for policy analysis. We find that assuming a symmetric distribution can lead to a divergence of 20–40% from the estimates based on the empirical distribution. Our results, therefore, introduce caution in interpreting the incidence of policies targeting the transportation sector based on averages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] This paper estimates CO2 emissions from China’s urban passenger transportation. [•] A “bottom-up” methodology is developed based upon passenger travel behaviors. [•] Traffic optimization can reduce 21% of the transportation energy in 2030. [•] Traffic plus urban optimization will reduce 43% of the transportation energy in 2030. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Under the Alternative Motor Fuels Act (AMFA), vehicles that run on ethanol, methanol, or natural gas get extra credits in the calculation of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE). This paper uses hedonic techniques to examine the effect of production of alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs) on the implicit price of fuel economy. This study finds that, after AFVs came to market, the marginal value of fuel economy from companies producing them decreased. This finding suggests that manufacturers who produced AFVs were willing to offer a lower price for fuel economy, because automakers had an additional way to achieve fuel economy standards beyond improving the fuel efficiency of conventional cars. These findings bolster the argument that a major role of the AMFA credit for AFVs is to allow automakers to increase their production of fuel-inefficient vehicles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The link between transport energy consumption and land use patterns has been the focus of a considerable amount of academic works over the past decades. While many empirical researches are backed up with solid statistical techniques, most of them do not fully consider the influence of scale underlying empirical quantitative investigations. Using fine-scale home-to-work commuting data for Wallonia (Belgium), this paper re-evaluates assertion that urban structure should hold the characteristics of major cities if substantial energy savings are to be achieved. A local scale approach highlights efficient settlements in terms of transport energy consumption not only within major towns, but also within remote rural areas. Furthermore, results suggest that influencing the urban form following local energy efficient examples rather than regional ones could also yield significant gains, without an extreme policy stance of re-urbanisation in major cities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper offers a brief journey through twelve major cities with various policies in place to curb private vehicle use and assesses their success in term of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission. Every region reviewed including Singapore is experiencing increase in energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and/or private vehicle ownership. In Europe, several regions improved transit quality and increased its ridership attracting non-motorized modes users instead of private vehicle users effectively increasing the total energy consumption. The author argues that policies aimed at reducing private vehicles use are failing because they do not incorporate the reality of human propensities for accessibility and comfort and they unsuccessfully try to attract customers toward services of lesser perceived quality. The demand for both accessibility and comfort will likely continue to grow with rising standards of living and will be met regardless of the environmental impact. Instead of attempting to constrain private vehicle use, the author suggests raising the competitiveness of alternate modes by investing in more attractive environments for non-motorized modes and designing transit systems actually capable of competing with private vehicles in term of perceived service quality while offering improved environmental performances. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: TRANSYT has been used in Chile since the early 1980s for cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure and traffic management projects. It is also the main tool of the Area Traffic Control Unit of Santiago de Chile since mid 1990s. As a result of this experience, many methodological improvements to the model have been done in order to take into account local conditions. This paper presents a review of these methodological as well as practical advances on the TRANSYT model made in the Chilean context during the past 15 years. Issues considered are cruise time distributions, the cycle-time selection method, saturation flows and car equivalents, public transport modeling, peak-hour delay calculation, modeling unsignalized intersections and zebra crossings, and fuel-consumption estimation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]