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The need to complete multiple tasks concurrently is a common occurrence both daily life and in occupational activities, which can often include simultaneous cognitive and physical demands. As one example, there is increasing availability of head-worn display technologies that can be employed when a user is mobile (e.g., while walking). This new method of information presentation may, however, introduce risks of adverse outcomes such as a decrement to gait performance. The goal of this study was thus to quantify the effects of a head-worn display (i.e., smart glasses) on motor variability during gait and to compare these effects with those of other common information displays (i.e., smartphone and paper-based system). Twenty participants completed four walking conditions, as a single task and in three dual-task conditions (three information displays). In the dual-task conditions, the information display was used to present several cognitive tasks. Three different measures were used to quantify variability in gait parameters for each walking condition (using the cycle-to-cycle standard deviation, sample entropy, and the “goal-equivalent manifold” approach). Our results indicated that participants used less adaptable gait strategies in dual-task walking using the paper-based system and smartphone conditions compared with single-task walking. Gait performance, however, was less affected during dual-task walking with the smart glasses. We conclude that the risk of an adverse gait event (e.g., a fall) in head-down walking conditions (i.e., the paper-based system and smartphone conditions) were higher than in single-task walking, and that head-worn displays might help reduce the risk of such events during dual-task gait conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

University scientific research ability is an important indicator to express the strength of universities. In this paper, the evaluation of university scientific research ability is investigated based on the output of sci-tech papers. Four university alliances from North America, UK, Australia, and China, are selected as the case study of the university scientific research evaluation. Data coming from Thomson Reuters InCites are collected to support the evaluation. The work has contributed new framework to the issue of university scientific research ability evaluation. At first, we have established a hierarchical structure to show the factors that impact the evaluation of university scientific research ability. Then, a new MCDM method called D-AHP model is used to implement the evaluation and ranking of different university alliances, in which a data-driven approach is proposed to automatically generate the D numbers preference relations. Next, a sensitivity analysis has been given to show the impact of weights of factors and sub-factors on the evaluation result. At last, the results obtained by using different methods are compared and discussed to verify the effectiveness and reasonability of this study, and some suggestions are given to promote China’s scientific research ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The safety of highly aggregated tourist crowds is a challenging and important issue. This paper not only provided a comprehensive analysis of the accidents of highly aggregated tourist crowds but also determined the occurrence mechanism and coping paths. Based on the analysis of multiple cases, we found that the variable status of highly aggregated tourist crowds was the result of the interaction of three main elements: multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses. A series of factors interact and result in accidents, and the lack of a management response or a low-quality management response is the root cause of such accidents. A high-quality management response is a basic safety precaution for highly aggregated tourist crowds. Therefore, forming a virtuous circle of multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses is an effective path for coping with accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Map-matching technology is a key and difficult technology in the development of vehicle navigation systems. Only by correctly identifying the road segment on which the vehicle is traveling can the navigation system make the right decision. At the same time, the complexity of the road network structure and a variety of error factors have introduced great challenges to map matching and have attracted the attention of many researchers as well. This paper analyzes various map-matching algorithms, determines that the key to the matching performance is the junction matching, performs an in-depth study on the junction-matching problem, and puts forward the junction decision domain model. The model mainly involves information regarding the width of the road segment, the angle between two road segments, the accuracy of GPS and the accuracy of the road network. In this paper, we use this model to improve the map-matching algorithm based on a hidden Markov model (HMM). The experimental results show that the improved matching algorithm can effectively reduce the error rate of junction matching and improve the matching performance of a navigation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proximal remote sensing is being used across a very wide range of research fields and by scientists, who are often without deep theoretical knowledge optical physics; the author of this article falls squarely in that category! This article highlights two optical phenomena, which may greatly influence the quality and robustness of proximal remote sensing: penetration and scattering. Penetration implies that acquired reflectance signals are associated with both physical and chemical properties of target objects from both the surface and internal tissues/structures. Scattering implies that reflectance signals acquired from one point or object are influenced by scattered radiometric energy from neighboring points or objects. Based on a series of laboratory experiments, penetration and scattering were discussed in the context of “robustness” (repeatability) of hyperspectral reflectance data. High robustness implies that it is possible to control imaging conditions and therefore: 1) obtain very similar radiometric signals from inert objects (objects that do not change) over time, and 2) be able to consistently distinguish objects that are otherwise highly similar in appearance (size, shape, and color) and in terms of biochemical composition. It was demonstrated that robustness of hyperspectral reflectance data (40 spectral bands from 385 to 1024 nm) were significantly influenced by penetration and scattering of radiometric energy. In addition, it was demonstrated that the influence of penetration and scattering varied across the examined spectrum. Characterization of how optical phenomena may affect the robustness of reflectance data is important when using proximal remote sensing technologies as tools used to classify engineering and biological objects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network modeling in electromagnetics is an effective technique in treating scattering problems by canonical and complex structures. Geometries constituted of angular regions (wedges) together with planar layers can now be approached with the Generalized Wiener-Hopf Technique supported by network representation in spectral domain. Even if the network representations in spectral planes are of great importance by themselves, the aim of this paper is to present a theoretical base and a general procedure for the formulation of complex scattering problems using network representation for the Generalized Wiener Hopf Technique starting basically from the wave equation. In particular while the spectral network representations are relatively well known for planar layers, the network modelling for an angular region requires a new theory that will be developed in this paper. With this theory we complete the formulation of a network methodology whose effectiveness is demonstrated by the application to a complex scattering problem with practical solutions given in terms of GTD/UTD diffraction coefficients and total far fields for engineering applications. The methodology can be applied to other physics fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes SAR imaging algorithm with largest coherence based on the existing SAR imaging algorithm. The basic idea of SAR imaging algorithm in imaging processing is that output signal can have maximum signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) by using the optimal imaging parameters. Traditional imaging algorithm can acquire the best focusing effect, but would bring the decoherence phenomenon in subsequent interference process. Algorithm proposed in this paper is that SAR echo adopts consistent imaging parameters in focusing processing. Although the SNR of the output signal is reduced slightly, their coherence is ensured greatly, and finally the interferogram with high quality is obtained. In this paper, two scenes of Envisat ASAR data in Zhangbei are employed to conduct experiment for this algorithm. Compared with the interferogram from the traditional algorithm, the results show that this algorithm is more suitable for SAR interferometry (InSAR) research and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peer review is the gold standard for scientific communication, but its ability to guarantee the quality of published research remains difficult to verify. Recent modeling studies suggest that peer review is sensitive to reviewer misbehavior, and it has been claimed that referees who sabotage work they perceive as competition may severely undermine the quality of publications. Here we examine which aspects of suboptimal reviewing practices most strongly impact quality, and test different mitigating strategies that editors may employ to counter them. We find that the biggest hazard to the quality of published literature is not selfish rejection of high-quality manuscripts but indifferent acceptance of low-quality ones. Bypassing or blacklisting bad reviewers and consulting additional reviewers to settle disagreements can reduce but not eliminate the impact. The other editorial strategies we tested do not significantly improve quality, but pairing manuscripts to reviewers unlikely to selfishly reject them and allowing revision of rejected manuscripts minimize rejection of above-average manuscripts. In its current form, peer review offers few incentives for impartial reviewing efforts. Editors can help, but structural changes are more likely to have a stronger impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic congestion in freeway network is a prevalent transportation problem and leads to a strong degradation of freeway network facilities. This paper proposes a new coordinated optimization approach for freeway network, aiming to relieve the traffic congestion in freeway network equipped with the coordinated traffic controllers. The challenge is how to solve the problem between the traffic control goals of each path and those of the network. In this paper, the bi-level programming theory is used to address this problem. More exactly, in the path level, the optimal control model is designed to relieve congestion in each path of the test network. Furthermore, in the network level, the optimal model considers the traffic equilibrium and cost optimization. The efficiency of the proposed approach is tested on a well-known traffic network calibrated by the field test data of freeway network. The results show that the proposed approach has positive effects in balancing traffic load and improving the service level of freeway networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on evaluating the systemic risk in interbank networks, proposing a series of measurements: risk distance, risk degree and m-order risk degree. The proposed measurements are formally proven to have good basic and extended properties that are able to reflect the effect of bank size, liability size, liability distribution, and the discount factor on the default risk, not only of a single bank, but also of the entire system. Additionally, the abovementioned properties and the relationship between risk distance and financial contagion indicate the rationality embodied in the proposed measurements. This paper also provides some implications on how to decrease or prevent the systemic risk in an interbank system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a formulation for selecting the stage ratios and number of stages in a multistage transmission with a given desired total transmission ratio in a manner that maximizes efficiency, maximizes acceleration, or minimizes the mass of the transmission. The formulation is used to highlight several implications for gear train design, including the fact that minimizing rotational inertia and mass are competing objectives with respect to optimal selection of stage ratios, and that both rotational inertia and mass can often be minimized by increasing the total number of stages beyond a minimum realizable number. Additionally, a multistage transmission will generally provide maximum acceleration when the stage ratios increase monotonically from the motor to the load. The transmission will have minimum mass when the stage ratios decrease monotonically. The transmission will also provide maximum efficiency when the corresponding stages employ constant stage ratios. This paper aims to use this optimization formulation to elucidate tradeoffs between various common objectives in gear train design (efficiency, acceleration, and mass). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to effectively solve traffic congestion and transportation pollution in urban development is a main research emphasis for transportation management agencies. A carbon emissions tax can affect travelers’ generalized costs and will lead to changes in passenger demand, mode choice and traffic flow equilibrium in road networks, which are of significance in green travel and low-carbon transportation management. This paper first established a mesoscopic model to calculate the carbon emissions tax and determined the value of this charge in China, which was based on road traffic flow, vehicle speed, and carbon emissions. Referring to existing research results to calibrate the value of time, this paper modified the traveler’s generalized cost function, including the carbon emissions tax, fuel surcharge and travel time cost, which can be used in the travel impedance model with the consideration of the carbon emissions tax. Then, a method for analyzing urban road network traffic flow distribution was put forward, and a joint traffic distribution model was established, which considered the relationship between private cars and taxis. Finally, this paper took the city of Panjin as an example to analyze the road traffic carbon emissions tax’s impact. The results illustrated that the carbon emissions tax has a positive effect on road network flow equilibrium and carbon emission reduction. This paper will have good reference value and practical significance for the calculation and implementation of urban traffic carbon emissions taxes in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biometric recognition technology based on eye-movement dynamics has been in development for more than ten years. Different visual tasks, feature extraction and feature recognition methods are proposed to improve the performance of eye movement biometric system. However, the correct identification and verification rates, especially in long-term experiments, as well as the effects of visual tasks and eye trackers’ temporal and spatial resolution are still the foremost considerations in eye movement biometrics. With a focus on these issues, we proposed a new visual searching task for eye movement data collection and a new class of eye movement features for biometric recognition. In order to demonstrate the improvement of this visual searching task being used in eye movement biometrics, three other eye movement feature extraction methods were also tested on our eye movement datasets. Compared with the original results, all three methods yielded better results as expected. In addition, the biometric performance of these four feature extraction methods was also compared using the equal error rate (EER) and Rank-1 identification rate (Rank-1 IR), and the texture features introduced in this paper were ultimately shown to offer some advantages with regard to long-term stability and robustness over time and spatial precision. Finally, the results of different combinations of these methods with a score-level fusion method indicated that multi-biometric methods perform better in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper’s analysis of forecasts made by MIT’s Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted “breakthrough technologies” currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cognitive biases and mental models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel method on the optimization of bi-objective Flexible Job-shop Scheduling Problem (FJSP) under stochastic processing times. The robust counterpart model and the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) are used to solve the bi-objective FJSP with consideration of the completion time and the total energy consumption under stochastic processing times. The case study on GM Corporation verifies that the NSGA-II used in this paper is effective and has advantages to solve the proposed model comparing with HPSO and PSO+SA. The idea and method of the paper can be generalized widely in the manufacturing industry, because it can reduce the energy consumption of the energy-intensive manufacturing enterprise with less investment when the new approach is applied in existing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past research on the process of extinguishing a fire typically used a traditional linear water jet falling point model and the results ignored external factors, such as environmental conditions and the status of the fire engine, even though the water jet falling point location prediction was often associated with these parameters and showed a nonlinear relationship. This paper constructed a BP (Back Propagation) neural network model. The fire gun nozzle characteristics were included as model inputs, and the water discharge point coordinates were the model outputs; thus, the model could precisely predict the water discharge point with small error and high precision to determine an accurate firing position and allow for the timely adjustment of the spray gun. To improve the slow convergence and local optimality problems of the BP neural network (BPNN), this paper further used a genetic algorithm to optimize the BPNN (GA-BPNN). The BPNN can be used to optimize the weights in the network to train them for global optimization. A genetic algorithm was introduced into the neural network approach, and the water jet landing prediction model was further improved. The simulation results showed that the prediction accuracy of the GA-BP model was better than that of the BPNN alone. The established model can accurately predict the location of the water jet, making the prediction results more useful for firefighters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open source software has been widely used in various industries due to its openness and flexibility, but it also brings potential security problems. Therefore, security analysis is required before using open source software. The current mainstream open source software vulnerability analysis technology is based on source code, and there are problems such as false positives, false negatives and restatements. In order to solve the problems, based on the further study of behavior feature extraction and vulnerability detection technology, a method of using dynamic behavior features to detect open source software vulnerabilities is proposed. Firstly, the relationship between open source software vulnerability and API call sequence is studied. Then, the behavioral risk vulnerability database of open source software is proposed as a support for vulnerability detection. In addition, the CNN-IndRNN classification model is constructed by improving the Independently Recurrent Neural Net-work (IndRNN) algorithm and applies to open source software security vulnerability detection. The experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed open source software security vulnerability detection method based on dynamic behavior features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Floating catchment methods have recently been applied to identify priority regions for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) deployment, to aid in improving Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) survival. This approach models access as a supply-to-demand ratio for each area, targeting areas with high demand and low supply for AED placement. These methods incorporate spatial covariates on OHCA occurrence, but do not provide precise AED locations, which are critical to the initial intent of such location analysis research. Exact AED locations can be determined using optimisation methods, but they do not incorporate known spatial risk factors for OHCA, such as income and demographics. Combining these two approaches would evaluate AED placement impact, describe drivers of OHCA occurrence, and identify areas that may not be appropriately covered by AED placement strategies. There are two aims in this paper. First, to develop geospatial models of OHCA that account for and display uncertainty. Second, to evaluate the AED placement methods using geospatial models of accessibility. We first identify communities with the greatest gap between demand and supply for allocating AEDs. We then use this information to evaluate models for precise AED location deployment. Methods: Case study data set consisted of 2802 OHCA events and 719 AEDs. Spatial OHCA occurrence was described using a geospatial model, with possible spatial correlation accommodated by introducing a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior on the municipality-level spatial random effect. This model was fit with Integrated Nested Laplacian Approximation (INLA), using covariates for population density, proportion male, proportion over 65 years, financial strength, and the proportion of land used for transport, commercial, buildings, recreation, and urban areas. Optimisation methods for AED locations were applied to find the top 100 AED placement locations. AED access was calculated for current access and 100 AED placements. Priority rankings were then given for each area based on their access score and predicted number of OHCA events. Results: Of the 2802 OHCA events, 64.28% occurred in rural areas, and 35.72% in urban areas. Additionally, over 70% of individuals were aged over 65. Supply of AEDs was less than demand in most areas. Priority regions for AED placement were identified, and access scores were evaluated for AED placement methodology by ranking the access scores and the predicted OHCA count. AED placement methodology placed AEDs in areas with the highest priority, but placed more AEDs in areas with more predicted OHCA events in each grid cell. Conclusion: The methods in this paper incorporate OHCA spatial risk factors and OHCA coverage to identify spatial regions most in need of resources. These methods can be used to help understand how AED allocation methods affect OHCA accessibility, which is of significant practical value for communities when deciding AED placements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at serving the interdisciplinary demand in network science, this paper introduces a new concept for complex networks, named network stiffness, which is extracted from structural engineering by assuming that a complex network behaves similarly with a structured framework. This analogy allows interpreting that a complex network can resist against any cause attempting to induce deformation changes to the network’s structure, regardless of whether the network is material or not. Within this framework, this paper examines the context of applying the conceptual analogy of stiffness from the field of structural engineering to network science and then it develops computational approaches capturing different aspects of network stiffness so that to be used in complex network analysis. The implementation of these approaches to a real-world network (global inbound tourism network) shows that stiffness can produce interesting insights to complex network analysis about the factors related to changes caused to the structure and the status of a complex network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to reduce a set of n 2D points to a smaller set of s 2D points with the property that the convex hull on the smaller set is the same as the convex hull of the original bigger set. The paper shows, experimentally, that such reduction accelerates computations; the time it takes to reduce from n down to s points plus the time of computing the convex hull on the s points is less than the time to compute the convex hull on the original set of n points. The method accepts 2D points expressed as real numbers and thus extends our previous method that required points as integers. The method achieves a percentage of reduction of points of over 90% in a collections of four datasets. This amount of reduction provides speedup factors of at least two for various common convex hull algorithms. Theoretically, the reduction method executes in time within O(n) and thus is suitable for preprocessing 2D data before computing the convex hull by any known algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wang et al. proposed a method for obtaining elliptic curves with embedding degree 1 for securing critical infrastructures, and presented several elliptic curves generated by their method with torsion points of 160 bits and 189 bits orders. They also presented some experimental results and claimed that their implementation of an elliptic curve generated with their method is faster than an implementation for embedded devices presented by Bertoni et al. In this paper, we point out that the security and efficiency claims given by Wang et al. are flawed. Specifically, we show that it is possible to solve finite field discrete logarithm problems defined over their elliptic curves in practice. On the elliptic curves with torsion points of 160 bits orders generated by Wang et al., their instances of finite field discrete logarithm problems are solved in around 4 hours by using a standard desktop PC. On the torsion points of 189 bits orders, their instances are solved in around 10 days by using two standard desktop PCs. The hardness of the finite field discrete logarithm problems is one of the most important bases of security; therefore, their elliptic curves should not be used for cryptographic purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase of the camera resolution, the number of pixels contained in froth image is increased, which brings many challenges to image segmentation. Froth size and distribution are the important index in froth flotation. The segmentation of froth images is always a problem in building flotation model. In segmenting froth images, Otsu method is usually used to get a binary image for classification of froth images, this method can get a satisfactory segmentation result. However, each gray level is required to calculate each of the between-class variance, it takes a longer time in froth images with a large number of pixels. To solve this problem, an improved method is proposed in this paper. Most froth images have the pixel distribution characteristic that the gray histogram curve is a sawtooth shape. The proposed method uses polynomial to fit the curve of gray histogram and takes the characteristic of gray histogram's valley into consideration in Otsu method. Two performance comparison methods are introduced and used. Experimental comparison between Otsu method and the proposed method shows that the proposed method has a satisfactory image segmentation with a low computing time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic congestion is an important problem both on an individual and on a societal level and much research has been done to explain and prevent their emergence. There are currently many systems which provide a reasonably good picture of actual road traffic by employing either fixed measurement points on highways or so called “floating car data” i.e. by using velocity and location data from roaming, networked, GPS enabled members of traffic. Some of these systems also offer forecasting of road conditions based on such historical data. To my knowledge there is as yet no system which offers advance notice on road conditions based on a signal which is guaranteed to occur in advance of these conditions and this is the novelty of this paper. Google Search intensity for the German word (i.e. traffic jam) peaks 2 hours ahead of the number of traffic jam reports as reported by the ADAC, a well known German automobile club and the largest of its kind in Europe. This is true both in the morning (7 am to 9 am) and in the evening (4 pm to 6 pm). The main result of this paper is then that after controlling for time-of-day and day-of-week effects we can still explain a significant additional portion of the variation of the number of traffic jam reports with Google Trends and we can thus explain well over 80% of the variation of road conditions using Google search activity. A one percent increase in Google stau searches implies a .4 percent increase of traffic jams. Our paper is a proof of concept that aggregate, timely delivered behavioural data can help fine tune modern societies and prompts for more research with better, more disaggregated data in order to also achieve practical solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an optimal sizing algorithm for a hybrid renewable energy system using smart grid load management application based on the available generation. This algorithm aims to maximize the system energy production and meet the load demand with minimum cost and highest reliability. This system is formed by photovoltaic array, wind turbines, storage batteries, and diesel generator as a backup source of energy. Demand profile shaping as one of the smart grid applications is introduced in this paper using load shifting-based load priority. Particle swarm optimization is used in this algorithm to determine the optimum size of the system components. The results obtained from this algorithm are compared with those from the iterative optimization technique to assess the adequacy of the proposed algorithm. The study in this paper is performed in some of the remote areas in Saudi Arabia and can be expanded to any similar regions around the world. Numerous valuable results are extracted from this study that could help researchers and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: Research capacity is weakest in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where operational research is highly relevant and needed. Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SORT IT) courses have been developed to train participants to conduct and publish operational research and influence policy and practice. Twenty courses were completed in Asia, Africa, Europe and the South Pacific between 2009 and 2014. Objectives: In the 20 completed SORT IT courses, to assess where the research was conducted, who was trained, who became facilitators in subsequent courses and course outcomes. Design: A cohort study of completed SORT IT courses Results: There were 236 participants (41% female) including 64 nationalities who conducted research in 59 countries, mostly from Asia and Africa (mean course duration = 9.7 months). Most participants (68%) were from government health programs and non-governmental agencies. A total of 213(90%) participants completed all milestones successfully with 41(19%) becoming subsequent course facilitators, 88% of whom were from LMICs. Of 228 manuscripts submitted to scientific journals, 197(86%) were either published or in press; in 86%, the principal investigator (first author) was a LMIC national. Papers were published in 23 scientific journals (impact factor 0.5–4.4) and covered 21 disease categories (median publication time = 5.7 months). Published papers (186) had 94,794 cumulative article views/downloads. Article views/downloads for immediate open access articles were double those from closed access journals. Conclusion: The SORT IT model has been effective in training personnel to produce relevant operational research in LMICs. It merits continued commitment and support for further scale-up and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but the benchmarks used to compare them are only relevant for specific cases. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind and temperature data are important parameters in aircraft performance studies. The lack of accurate measurements of these parameters forces researchers to rely on numerical weather prediction models, which are often filtered for a larger area with decreased local accuracy. Aircraft, however, also transmit information related to weather conditions, in response to interrogation by air traffic controller surveillance radars. Although not intended for this purpose, aircraft surveillance data contains information that can be used for weather models. This paper presents a method that can be used to reconstruct a weather field from surveillance data that can be received with a simple 1090 MHz receiver. Throughout the paper, we answer two main research questions: how to accurately infer wind and temperature from aircraft surveillance data, and how to reconstruct a real-time weather grid efficiently. We consider aircraft as moving sensors that measure wind and temperature conditions indirectly at different locations and flight levels. To address the first question, aircraft barometric altitude, ground velocity, and airspeed are decoded from down-linked surveillance data. Then, temperature and wind observations are computed based on aeronautical speed conversion equations. To address the second question, we propose a novel Meteo-Particle (MP) model for constructing the wind and temperature fields. Short-term local prediction is also possible by employing a predictor layer. Using an unseen observation test dataset, we are able to validate that the mean absolute errors of inferred wind and temperature using MP model are 67% and 26% less than using the interpolated model based on GFS reanalysis data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ensemble method random forests has become a popular classification tool in bioinformatics and related fields. The out-of-bag error is an error estimation technique often used to evaluate the accuracy of a random forest and to select appropriate values for tuning parameters, such as the number of candidate predictors that are randomly drawn for a split, referred to as mtry. However, for binary classification problems with metric predictors it has been shown that the out-of-bag error can overestimate the true prediction error depending on the choices of random forests parameters. Based on simulated and real data this paper aims to identify settings for which this overestimation is likely. It is, moreover, questionable whether the out-of-bag error can be used in classification tasks for selecting tuning parameters like mtry, because the overestimation is seen to depend on the parameter mtry. The simulation-based and real-data based studies with metric predictor variables performed in this paper show that the overestimation is largest in balanced settings and in settings with few observations, a large number of predictor variables, small correlations between predictors and weak effects. There was hardly any impact of the overestimation on tuning parameter selection. However, although the prediction performance of random forests was not substantially affected when using the out-of-bag error for tuning parameter selection in the present studies, one cannot be sure that this applies to all future data. For settings with metric predictor variables it is therefore strongly recommended to use stratified subsampling with sampling fractions that are proportional to the class sizes for both tuning parameter selection and error estimation in random forests. This yielded less biased estimates of the true prediction error. In unbalanced settings, in which there is a strong interest in predicting observations from the smaller classes well, sampling the same number of observations from each class is a promising alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring the clustered data structure on allometric models. Clustered data, in the form of multiple trees sampled from multiple forest stands is commonly used to develop biomass allometric models. Of 102 reviewed papers published between 2012 and 2016 that reported biomass allometric models, 84 (82%) have used a clustered sampling design. However, in as many as 80% of these, the clustered data structure was ignored, potentially violating the independence assumption in ordinary least squares methods. The consequences of ignoring clustered data structure were empirically validated using two clustered biomass datasets (of 110 and 220 trees, with the cluster size of 5 and 10 trees respectively). We showed that when Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure returned underestimated standard errors, affecting further the confidence interval and t-test results. The underestimation level depended on ICC (which shows the variance proportion that was caused by the forest stand) and on cluster size (the number of trees sampled from one forest stand). We also showed that using first-order autocorrelation tests, such as the traditional Durbin-Watson statistic, to detect the autocorrelation due to clustered structure could be misleading as the test may show lack of autocorrelation even though ICC is different from zero. In conclusion, when ICC is higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure yields over-confident biomass predictions (due to underestimated confidence interval) and/or incorrect research conclusions (due to overestimated evidence against null hypothesis in t-test). Therefore, using a modelling approach that accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data is highly recommended when any form of clustering can be identified, even if the autocorrelation is not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outlier removal is a fundamental data processing task to ensure the quality of scanned point cloud data (PCD), which is becoming increasing important in industrial applications and reverse engineering. Acquired scanned PCD is usually noisy, sparse and temporarily incoherent. Thus the processing of scanned data is typically an ill-posed problem. In the paper, we present a simple and effective method based on two geometrical characteristics constraints to trim the noisy points. One of the geometrical characteristics is the local density information and another is the deviation from the local fitting plane. The local density based method provides a preprocessing step, which could remove those sparse outlier and isolated outlier. The non-isolated outlier removal in this paper depends on a local projection method, which placing those points onto objects. There is no doubt that the deviation of any point from the local fitting plane should be a criterion to reduce the noisy points. The experimental results demonstrate the ability to remove the noisy point from various man-made objects consisting of complex outlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The integrity of image content is essential, although most watermarking algorithms can achieve image authentication but not automatically repair damaged areas or restore the original image. In this paper, a self-recovery reversible image watermarking algorithm is proposed to recover the tampered areas effectively. First of all, the original image is divided into homogeneous blocks and non-homogeneous blocks through multi-scale decomposition, and the feature information of each block is calculated as the recovery watermark. Then, the original image is divided into 4×4 non-overlapping blocks classified into smooth blocks and texture blocks according to image textures. Finally, the recovery watermark generated by homogeneous blocks and error-correcting codes is embedded into the corresponding smooth block by mapping; watermark information generated by non-homogeneous blocks and error-correcting codes is embedded into the corresponding non-embedded smooth block and the texture block via mapping. The correlation attack is detected by invariant moments when the watermarked image is attacked. To determine whether a sub-block has been tampered with, its feature is calculated and the recovery watermark is extracted from the corresponding block. If the image has been tampered with, it can be recovered. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively recover the tampered areas with high accuracy and high quality. The algorithm is characterized by sound visual quality and excellent image restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the drive-response synchronization for quaternion-valued shunting inhibitory cellular neural networks (QVSICNNs) with mixed delays. First, QVSICNN is decomposed into an equivalent real-valued system in order to avoid the non-commutativity of the multiplicity. Then, the existence of almost periodic solutions is obtained based on the Banach fixed point theorem. An novel state-feedback controller is designed to ensure the global exponential almost periodic synchronization. At the end of the paper, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China’s fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recommender systems are vulnerable to shilling attacks. Forged user-generated content data, such as user ratings and reviews, are used by attackers to manipulate recommendation rankings. Shilling attack detection in recommender systems is of great significance to maintain the fairness and sustainability of recommender systems. The current studies have problems in terms of the poor universality of algorithms, difficulty in selection of user profile attributes, and lack of an optimization mechanism. In this paper, a shilling behaviour detection structure based on abnormal group user findings and rating time series analysis is proposed. This paper adds to the current understanding in the field by studying the credibility evaluation model in-depth based on the rating prediction model to derive proximity-based predictions. A method for detecting suspicious ratings based on suspicious time windows and target item analysis is proposed. Suspicious rating time segments are determined by constructing a time series, and data streams of the rating items are examined and suspicious rating segments are checked. To analyse features of shilling attacks by a group user’s credibility, an abnormal group user discovery method based on time series and time window is proposed. Standard testing datasets are used to verify the effect of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on temporal characteristics of human dynamics has attracted much attentions for its contribution to various areas such as communication, medical treatment, finance, etc. Existing studies show that the time intervals between two consecutive events present different non-Poisson characteristics, such as power-law, Pareto, bimodal distribution of power-law, exponential distribution, piecewise power-law, et al. With the occurrences of new services, new types of distributions may arise. In this paper, we study the distributions of the time intervals between two consecutive visits to QQ and WeChat service, the top two popular instant messaging services in China, and present a new finding that when the value of statistical unit T is set to 0.001s, the inter-event time distribution follows a piecewise distribution of exponential and power-law, indicating the heterogeneous character of IM services users’ online behavior in different time scales. We infer that the heterogeneous character is related to the communication mechanism of IM and the habits of users. Then we develop a combination model of exponential model and interest model to characterize the heterogeneity. Furthermore, we find that the exponent of the inter-event time distribution of the same service is different in two cities, which is correlated with the popularity of the services. Our research is useful for the application of information diffusion, prediction of economic development of cities, and so on. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Miniaturization of computer hardware and the demand for network capable devices has resulted in the emergence of a new class of technology called wearable computing. Wearable devices have many purposes like lifestyle support, health monitoring, fitness monitoring, entertainment, industrial uses, and gaming. Wearable devices are hurriedly being marketed in an attempt to capture an emerging market. Owing to this, some devices do not adequately address the need for security. To enable virtualization and connectivity wearable devices sense and transmit data, therefore it is essential that the device, its data and the user are protected. In this paper the use of novel Integrated Circuit Metric (ICMetric) technology for the provision of security in wearable devices has been suggested. ICMetric technology uses the features of a device to generate an identification which is then used for the provision of cryptographic services. This paper explores how a device ICMetric can be generated by using the accelerometer and gyroscope sensor. Since wearable devices often operate in a group setting the work also focuses on generating a group identification which is then used to deliver services like authentication, confidentiality, secure admission and symmetric key generation. Experiment and simulation results prove that the scheme offers high levels of security without compromising on resource demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine Learning (ML) methods have been proposed in the academic literature as alternatives to statistical ones for time series forecasting. Yet, scant evidence is available about their relative performance in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate such performance across multiple forecasting horizons using a large subset of 1045 monthly time series used in the M3 Competition. After comparing the post-sample accuracy of popular ML methods with that of eight traditional statistical ones, we found that the former are dominated across both accuracy measures used and for all forecasting horizons examined. Moreover, we observed that their computational requirements are considerably greater than those of statistical methods. The paper discusses the results, explains why the accuracy of ML models is below that of statistical ones and proposes some possible ways forward. The empirical results found in our research stress the need for objective and unbiased ways to test the performance of forecasting methods that can be achieved through sizable and open competitions allowing meaningful comparisons and definite conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]