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• A novel energy-environmental model for penetration of oil sands cogeneration. • Interactions between industry cogeneration and provincial grid system considered. • 2% of oil sands greenhouse gas emissions could be mitigated by 2050. • The marginal abatement cost is $15 per tonne of carbon abated. • 92% of emission mitigation came from the steam-assisted gravity drainage sector. The purpose of this research is to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities from cogenerated electricity in oil sands production. A novel combined market penetration and bottom-up energy system modelling framework was developed to assess the long-range potential and marginal costs of cogenerated electricity in the oil sands. Feasible scenarios for incorporating cogeneration into the in situ, surface mining, and upgrading subsectors were developed along with four additional scenarios incorporating electricity-based technologies to improve in situ plant efficiencies. These scenarios were evaluated under three different carbon pricing policies; twenty-one scenarios in total covering the time period 2019 to 2050. The use of cogeneration in the oil sands for new production during this period was determined through market penetration modelling and the results were compared to a reference scenario of limited cogeneration growth. It was found that there is potential to provide 76 million tonnes of greenhouse gas abatement (2% of cumulative projected oil sands emissions) at a marginal cost of $15 per tonne of carbon abated compared to the reference scenario. The incorporation of electrical equipment, specifically well-pad boilers, well-pad compressors, additional steam compressors, and steam superheaters, resulted in additional costs that outweighed the benefits. A $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent carbon price (within the current Alberta emission reduction regulation) resulted in a 2% increase in forecasted greenhouse gas abatement potential and a $1.4/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent decrease in marginal abatement costs compared to no carbon pricing. This research provides quantification of the greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and marginal abatement costs of cogeneration technologies to allow industry stakeholders and policymakers to compare these technology options to others when considering long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-level energy efficiency improvement is regarded as an effective technique for emissions reduction from the petroleum refining industry. Assessing the systems-level impacts of these energy efficiency improvements is crucial for effective long-term climate change policy- and decision-making. In this study, we developed a framework that integrates process simulation with integrated resource planning and techno-economic assessment techniques to evaluate long-term GHG mitigation potential in the refining sector. Detailed process simulations were done for eleven energy efficiency improvement measures in the refining sector. A case study was conducted for Alberta's (a province in western Canada) refining sector to assess GHG emissions reduction potential and their implications for long-term climate change policy-making. The GHG mitigation scenarios considered time horizons to the years 2030 and 2050. The results show that compared to the reference scenario, integrating the energy efficiency options in the refining sector will result in cumulative emissions reduction of 5%. About 60% of the anticipated emissions reductions are economically attractive. The proposed framework is an effective tool for the evaluation of long-term refining sector GHG mitigation potential and can be used for decision-making and policy formulation at various levels. • A framework is developed to assess GHG mitigation potential in the refining sector. • Process simulation, economic analysis, and energy planning models are integrated. • 22 mitigation scenarios are developed in time horizons ending in 2030 and 2050. • GHG mitigation potential is calculated and GHG abatement cost curves are developed. • 60% of the GHG emissions reductions are found to be economically attractive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]