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Numerical models have been developed to investigate and understand responses of biogeochemical cycle to global changes. Steady state, when a system is in dynamic equilibrium, is generally required to initialize these model simulations. However, the spin‐up process that is used to achieve steady state pose a great burden to computational resources, limiting the efficiency of global modeling analysis on biogeochemical cycles. This study introduces a new Semi‐Analytical Spin‐Up (SASU) to tackle this grand challenge. We applied SASU to Community Land Model version 5 and examined its computational efficiency and accuracy. At the Brazil site, SASU is computationally 7 times more efficient than (or saved up to 86% computational cost in comparison with) the traditional native dynamics (ND) spin‐up to reach the same steady state. Globally, SASU is computationally 8 times more efficient than the accelerated decomposition spin‐up and 50 times more efficient than ND. In summary, SASU achieves the highest computational efficiency for spin‐up on site and globally in comparison with other spin‐up methods. It is generalizable to wide biogeochemical models and thus makes computationally costly studies (e.g., parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation) possible for a better understanding of biogeochemical cycle under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Land carbon cycle models, a critical component of earth system models, have been developed to investigate and understand ecological responses to global changes. However, the model spin‐up process to achieve steady state are usually time‐consuming and pose great computational burden. The spin‐up problem hinders our ability to study some key issues in land carbon cycle modeling, such as sensitivity analysis. This paper applies a new SASU framework to accelerate spin‐up of Community Land Model matrix version 5. Compared with traditional native dynamic approach, SASU speeds up the spin‐up by approximately 50 times, achieving the fastest spin‐up speed than all the previously recorded methods. Our SASU method is applicable to biogeochemical models and, therefore, liberates the models for computationally costly studies, such as parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation. Key Points: A new semi‐analytical spin‐up (SASU) framework combines the default accelerated spin‐up method and matrix analytical algorithmSASU accelerates CLIM5 spin‐up by tens of times, becoming the fastest method to our knowledgeSASU is applicable to most biogeochemical models and enables computationally costly study, for example, sensitivity analysis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic disturbances and climate change are expected to reorganize biodiversity on multiple ecological levels from populations to ecosystems, especially in arid and semiarid regions due to environmental filtering imposed by water stress. This paper examines the individual and combined effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbance and increased aridity on the structure of fruit-feeding butterfly assemblages in a human-modified landscape of Caatinga dry forest, in the northeast of Brazil. Butterflies were recorded monthly across old-growth forest stands and their assemblages were described in terms of taxonomic and functional community-level attributes confronted to different levels of chronic disturbance and aridity. Butterfly assemblages were species-poor but had high species replacement (turnover) along both the chronic disturbance and aridity gradients. We observed a negative effect of aridity on alpha and beta diversity of butterfly assemblages. Butterfly assemblages across forest stands exposed to high levels of chronic disturbance and aridity had a nested structure. Functional diversity (Rao's Q) and the community-weighted means (CWM) of ocellus-bearing species and monocot-feeding larvae were negatively and positively affected by increased aridity and chronic disturbance, respectively. Our findings suggest that aridity and its combination with chronic disturbance have a drastic effect on the structure of butterfly assemblages in the Caatinga dry forest. These findings highlight that rainfall and chronic disturbances as major drivers of biological reorganization in human-modified landscapes. As aridity increases, Caatinga tends to support taxonomically and functionally impoverished and highly distorted assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Diversity & Distributions is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Endemic to the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil, the critically endangered Buffy‐Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps) is lacking the required attention for effective conservation. We modelled its ecological niche with the main objectives of (1) defining suitable habitat and (2) prioritising areas for conservation and/or restoration. The current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps in the Atlantic Forest of Southeast Brazil. We used Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling to define current habitat suitability considering four climate and two landscape variables. To identify areas to prioritise for conservation and/or restoration, we predicted future habitat suitability considering the intermediate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Among the variables included to predict current species distribution, tree canopy cover, precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality were the most important whereas digital elevation model and precipitation during the wettest month were the least important. Callithrix flaviceps was most likely to occur in areas with tree canopy cover >80%, high precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality between 21 and 23°C. From the future suitability prediction maps, the Caparaó National Park stands out as a likely key area for the preservation of the species. Furthermore, high climatic suitability but low landscape suitability suggests that habitat restoration in 'Serra das Torres' (South of the current distribution area) might be a useful strategy. However, creating ecological corridors on the west side of Caparaó would be necessary to improve connectivity. More surveys within and beyond the current geographical range are required to define more precisely the distribution of the species. Our results support the notion that seasonality is important for Callithrix flaviceps and that as a montane species, it prefers colder environments and higher altitudes. Within both climate change scenarios, Caparaó National Park was predicted to be highly suitable, with a high probability of presence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Arboreal and ground‐dwelling species experience distinct microclimates, have contrasting thermal tolerances and thus may be expected to respond differentially to geographic climatic gradients. We tested this idea by evaluating if the degree of vertical stratification of savanna ant assemblages varies along a latitudinal climatic gradient, and by determining how compositional dissimilarities within each stratum varies across increased geographical and climatic distances. Location: Brazil. Taxon: Ants. Methods: We sampled ants foraging on the ground or in trees at 32 sites. Species were classified according to their main foraging stratum, as arboreal, ground‐dweller or strata generalist. We used linear models to evaluate the effects of latitude and sampling stratum on species richness, and the effect of latitude on the proportion of species typical from trees or from the ground in different sampling strata. The influence of geographic and climatic distances on the compositional differences between assemblages from the same stratum was assessed using regression on distance matrices. Results: Species richness on the ground increased with latitude significantly faster than in trees. The turnover of species between strata was lower at lower latitudes, where there were proportionally more strata generalists and species typical from the ground stratum foraging in trees. Consequently, the compositional dissimilarity between vertical strata decreased with decreasing latitude. Despite that, the dissimilarities between vertical strata were, on average, as great or even greater than the dissimilarities between assemblages from the same stratum across the horizontal space. Main Conclusions: We found support for the idea that climatic variation across latitude had different effects on arboreal compared with ground‐foraging assemblages. Overall, our results suggest that as Brazilian savanna becomes hotter and drier as forecast under climate change, ant assemblages may become not only less diverse, notably on the ground, but also more homogeneous vertically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Museum specimens and citizen science initiatives are valuable sources of information on how anthropogenic activities affect biodiversity and how species respond to rapid global change. Although tropical regions harbor most of the planet's biodiversity, investigations on species' phenological changes are heavily biased toward temperate regions. Such unevenness in phenological research is also taxonomically biased, with reptiles being the least studied group among tetrapod species regarding animal phenology. Herein, we used long‐term time‐series data to investigate environmentally driven changes in the activity pattern of tropical forest snakes. We gathered natural history collection and citizen science data for 25 snake species (five venomous and 20 non‐venomous) from an Atlantic Forest region in southeastern Brazil. Using circular mixed‐effects models, we investigate whether snake activity patterns followed the variation in environmental variables over a decade. Our results show that the activity pattern of Atlantic Forest snakes was seasonal and largely driven by average temperature and relative humidity. Since snakes are ectothermic animals, they are particularly sensitive to temperature variations, especially at small scales. Moreover, relative humidity can affect snake's seasonal activities through physiological constraints and/or prey availability. Most specimens were registered during the rainy season, with highly venomous snakes (lanceheads and coral snakes) emerging as the most abundant taxa. We highlight the importance of citizen science and natural history collections in better understanding biodiversity. Furthermore, our data obtained from local collectors underscore the need for environmental education programs and collaboration between researchers and local decision‐makers to raise awareness and reduce conflicts between people and snakes in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soybean stem fly, Melanagromyza sojae (Zehntner) (Diptera: Agromyzidae), is an example of an insect pest with a restricted distribution that in the last few decades has been spreading to regions beyond its native range and causing economic losses. We evaluated whether M. sojae shifted its niche during biological invasion and used ecological niche models to estimate its global distribution under current and future climate conditions. In addition, we assessed whether the soybean stem fly represents a risk for major soybean‐producing countries, using Brazil as an example. Our analyses suggest that M. sojae has expanded its niche to new environments. Suitable habitats were predicted in all continents, including regions where this species has not yet been reported. Several soybean‐producing countries and all Brazilian growing areas are within the suitable ranges estimated for M. sojae. Also, most areas estimated as suitable under current climate conditions will remain so until at least 2080. These findings are important for invasion risk assessments aiming to prevent the spread of this species to major soybean‐producing areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value <.05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB—up to 40% compared to the baseline—are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071–2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we analyse the effects of climate change on the recharge and the groundwater flow of the Urucuia Aquifer System in western Bahia State, Brazil (UAS‐BA) in the period 2041–2060. We assessed possible changes and impacts on groundwater recharge with four climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): ACCESS‐ESM1‐5, CanESM5, EC‐Earth3 and MIROC6, under scenarios SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP). Visual Balan 2.0 aquifer recharge assessment code, and the MODFLOW hydrogeological model were used to analyse the impact of future climate changes on the recharge. The projections of relative change in precipitation, under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, show a precipitation reduction between 5% and 20%, using ACCESS‐ESM1‐5, CanESM5 and EC‐Earth3 models. Using SSP5‐8.5 scenario, these models behave differently, while the CanESM5 and EC‐Earth3 models indicate an even greater decrease in precipitation, with values up to 35%, the ACCESS‐ESM1‐5 projects an increase in precipitation of up to 25%. Using MIROC6, though, an increase of up to 10% in precipitation in the UAS‐BA is expected, under both scenarios. Regarding temperature, all the models agree with a warming in the future varying from 2 to 3°C. Recharge projections calculated using the Visual Balan 2.0 indicated in general a reduction between 8% and 43%. Using the MODFLOW model, the results show a reduction of recharge to the aquifer varying from 3% to 45% using CanESM5, EC‐Earth3 and MIROC6. The ACCESS‐ESM1‐5 has a 26% reduction (5% increase) under SSP1‐2.6 (SSP5‐8.5). Furthermore, projections indicate a downward trend in the water table in the northern portion of UAS‐BA, reaching a maximum drop of up to 12 m with the CanESM5, under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already seen as one of the biggest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. Not many studies direct attention to its effects on whole communities of threatened hotspots. In this work, we combine climate niche modelling (ENM) with a future climate scenario of greenhouse gases emissions to study the future changes in alpha and beta diversity of birds of the Brazilian Cerrado biome, a hot spot of biodiversity with high velocity of climate change and agricultural expansion. We expected Southern Cerrado (highly modified) to present most negative changes. In general, we found heterogeneous results for changes in species richness, spatial and temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity, and mean ecological distinctiveness. We analysed 1301 birds, 1115 Least Concern, 83 Near Threatened, 63 Vulnerable, 33 Endangered, five Critically Endangered and two Extinct in the Wild. Contrary to a previous study on Cerrado mammals, species richness is expected to increase in Northern Cerrado, where homogenization of communities (decreasing spatial turnover) is also expected to occur especially through local invasions. We show that biotic homogenization increasing (similarity among communities) will occur in two biological groups but through different subprocesses: local extinctions for mammals and local invasions for birds. Distinct conservation management actions should be directed depending on the outcomes of analyses of alpha and spatial and temporal beta diversity, for example controlling species invasions in Northern Cerrado. We also show species‐level priorities for Cerrado birds. Conservation studies should continue evaluating Cerrado in Brazil even under covid pandemic, as environmental situation in the country is not good and incentives for scientific studies are almost nonexistent. We also consider that Northern Cerrado could be seen as a potential refuge for other organismal groups (bats, butterflies, frogs, etc). Therefore, ambitious conservation actions by decision‐makers are now crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here, published crop disease risk simulations are summarized, which were driven by climate change scenarios on a timescale terminating between 2001 and 2100. Thirty different agricultural and horticultural crops were specifically considered. Wheat diseases (mainly leaf rust) were most often simulated, followed by rice diseases (mainly leaf blast), grapevine diseases (mainly downy mildew) and potato diseases (mainly late blight). Most simulations suggest that within the projection period simulated, crop disease risk will more often increase (86 simulations) than decrease (45 simulations) or remain similar (12 simulations). The majority of crop disease risk simulations focus on Europe and Brazil. For example, there is agreement across crop disease risk simulations that in Europe the risk of leaf rust of wheat will increase. In other cases, there is disagreement across crop disease risk simulations, for example, due to contemporary climatic differences of locations. Therefore, it is risky to extrapolate results across locations. Mitigation and adaptation methods should be more often integrated in the crop disease risk simulations in order to inform about potential methods to reduce disease risk in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Tropical Atlantic Ocean is a biogeochemically complex region due to the structure of the surface current system and the large freshwater input from the Amazon River coupled with the dynamics of precipitation. Such features make it difficult to understand the dynamics of the carbon cycle, leading to contrasting estimates in sea‐air CO2 exchanges in this region. Here, we demonstrate that these contrasting estimates occur because the western Tropical Atlantic Ocean can be split into three distinct sub‐regions in terms of the sea‐air CO2 exchanges. The sub‐region under the North Brazil Current domain acts as a weak annual CO2 source to the atmosphere, with low interannual variability. The sub‐region under the North Equatorial Current influence acts as an annual CO2 sink, with great temporal variability. The third sub‐region under the Amazon River plume influence shows greater interannual variability of CO2 exchanges, but it always acts as a net oceanic sink for CO2. Despite this large spatial variability, the entire region acts as a net annual CO2 sink of −1.6 ± 1.0 mmol m−2 day−1. Importantly, the Amazon River plume waters drive 87% of the CO2 uptake in the western Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In addition, we found a significant increasing trend in sea surface CO2 partial pressure in the North Brazil Current and North Equatorial Current waters. Such trends are more pronounced than the increase in atmospheric CO2 partial pressure, revealing the sensitivity of carbon dynamics in these sub‐regions to global climate change. Key Points: Sea‐air CO2 release (uptake) shown in the North Brazil Current (North Equatorial Current) domainStrong CO2 uptake under the Amazon River plume influence, which accounts for 87% of the CO2 uptake by the western Tropical Atlantic OceanIncreasing trend of sea surface CO2 partial pressure in the North Brazil Current and the North Equatorial Current waters [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding concurrent drought events in global main croplands is crucially important for food security, effective adaptation to climate change and human well‐being. Yet, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on concurrent drought probability changes among main crop production countries on a global scale, especially for the future. Here, we studied concurrent drought among 26 main crop production countries for the time period 1861–2099. During the historical period, probability of concurrent moderate and severe drought among the countries was relatively low, and the maximum concurrent moderate and severe drought probability will double and triple under RCP8.5 extreme climate, respectively. Concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under RCP8.5, respectively, compared with zero in the historical period. Limiting RCPs to RCP2.6 can decrease the concurrent probability of severe drought at least 2% (at least 3% for RCP8.5). Plain Language Summary: In the past over 100 years, the world had rarely experienced extreme drought events that occurred at the same time among major food producing countries. Yet, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on the changes of the concurrent drought probability among global main crop production countries, especially for the future. We studied the concurrent drought among 26 global main crop production countries for the time period 1861–2099. We find that the maximum concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought will double and triple, respectively, under the business as usual climate scenario. Concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under future business as usual climate, compared with zero in the historical period. Key Points: Maximum concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought will double and triple under RCP8.5, respectivelyConcurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under RCP8.5Limiting RCPs to RCP2.6 can decrease the concurrent probability of severe drought at least 2% (at least 3% for RCP8.5) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Functional Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Motivation: Leaf traits represent an important component of plant functional strategies, and those related to carbon fixation and nutrient acquisition form the leaf economics spectrum. However, observations of functional leaf traits are underrepresented in tropical regions in comparison with those in temperate areas. Brazil, a country with continental scale and vast biodiversity is a timely example, where many biomes are impacted by human activities and climate change. However, leaf traits relevant to understand vegetation responses to these impacts remain poorly quantified for many species found in the country. We compiled an extensive data set of four functional leaf traits for native woody species occurring in the Brazilian territory. In addition to trait observations, sampling dates and geo‐references were compiled and climatic parameters and soil properties of each sampling site were extracted from several databases. Main types of variables contained: The LT‐Brazil data set contains 3,479, 1,216, 775 and 775 clean observations of leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen (N) concentration per unit mass, leaf phosphorus (P) concentration per unit mass, and leaf N : P ratio, respectively, from native woody species, encompassing information of biome, vegetation, taxonomic data, geographical coordinates, climatic parameters, as well as soil properties. Spatial location and grain: We compiled trait observations from 223 sites under native vegetation distributed in all main biomes (i.e., Amazônia, Caatinga, Cerrado, Mata Atlântica, Pampa and Pantanal) across the Brazilian territory. Time period and grain: The data represent information published and/or sampled during the last 25 years. Major taxa and level of measurement: Our compilation was focused on trait data observed for native woody species, excluding monocots, palm trees, herbs, and hemiparasitic plants. Thus, 108, 478 and 1,321 botanical families, genera and species were included, covering c. 9% of the woody angiosperm flora of Brazil. Software format: Data are provided as comma‐separated value (.csv) files. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]