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First two decades of the twenty-first century are characterised by epidemics of non-communicable diseases such as many hundreds of millions of patients diagnosed with cardiovascular diseases and the type 2 diabetes mellitus, breast, lung, liver and prostate malignancies, neurological, sleep, mood and eye disorders, amongst others. Consequent socio-economic burden is tremendous. Unprecedented decrease in age of maladaptive individuals has been reported. The absolute majority of expanding non-communicable disorders carry a chronic character, over a couple of years progressing from reversible suboptimal health conditions to irreversible severe pathologies and cascading collateral complications. The time-frame between onset of SHS and clinical manifestation of associated disorders is the operational area for an application of reliable risk assessment tools and predictive diagnostics followed by the cost-effective targeted prevention and treatments tailored to the person.This article demonstrates advanced strategies in bio/medical sciences and healthcare focused on suboptimal health conditions in the frame-work of Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine (3PM/PPPM). Potential benefits in healthcare systems and for society at large include but are not restricted to an improved life-quality of major populations and socio-economical groups, advanced professionalism of healthcare-givers and sustainable healthcare economy. Amongst others, following medical areas are proposed to strongly benefit from PPPM strategies applied to the identification and treatment of suboptimal health conditions:Stress overload associated pathologiesMale and female healthPlanned pregnanciesPeriodontal healthEye disordersInflammatory disorders, wound healing and pain management with associated complicationsMetabolic disorders and suboptimal body weightCardiovascular pathologiesCancersStroke, particularly of unknown aetiology and in young individualsSleep medicineSports medicineImproved individual outcomes under pandemic conditions such as COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for effective infectious disease outbreak prevention. This could entail installing an integrated, international early warning system, aiming to contain and mitigate infectious diseases outbreaks. The amount of resources governments should spend on such preventive measures can be informed by the value citizens attach to such a system. This was already recognized in 2018, when a contingent valuation willingness to pay (WTP) experiment was fielded, eliciting the WTP for such a system in six European countries. We replicated that experiment in the spring of 2020 to test whether and how WTP had changed during an actual pandemic (COVID-19), taking into account differences in infection rates and stringency of measures by government between countries. Overall, we found significant increases in WTP between the two time points, with mean WTP for an early warning system increasing by about 50% (median 30%), from around €20 to €30 per month. However, there were marked differences between countries and subpopulations, and changes were only partially explained by COVID-19 burden. We discuss possible explanations for and implication of our findings. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-021-01353-6.

The COVID-19 has been a worldwide pandemic and it needs for studies related to effect on people's demand for insurance during the pandemic which is an important way to transfer risk. However, there is a lack of research linking COVID-19 and people's demand for insurance. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on issuance demand, using data covering 241 cities on confirmed COVID-19 cases and insurance company revenue in China. The empirical results show that more confirmed COVID-19 cases are associated with greater per capita insurance revenue and the results are robust when considering endogeneity concern. Economically, the per capita insurance revenue increases by 0.896 Yuan for each more confirmed case. In terms of insurance type, the greatest increased insurance revenue is for life insurance, followed by health insurance. We further consider the heterogeneity of regions and find that the impact of COVID-19 on insurance revenue only exists in regions with worse medical treatment conditions or higher medical burden.

Study rationale The swift progression of the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to facilitate the increase in telehealth utilization. However, it is clear neither how telehealth was offered by providers nor how it was used by patients during this time of unusual and rapid change within the health industry. Aim To investigates the telehealth utilization patterns of Medicare beneficiaries during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and materials A cross-sectional study design was used to examine the responses of 9686 Medicare beneficiaries to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, Fall 2020 COVID-19 Supplement. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between telehealth offering and beneficiaries' sociodemographic variables. Results Over half (58%) of primary care providers provided telehealth services, while only 26%-28% of specialists did. Less than 8% of Medicare beneficiaries reported that they were unable to obtain care because of COVID-19. Conclusions This research found that changes in Medicare policy, associated with CMS' declaration of telehealth waivers during the Public Health Emergency (PHE), likely increased the proliferation and utilization of telehealth services during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing important access to care for certain populations. With the impending conclusion of the PHE, policymakers must 1) ascertain which elements of the new telehealth landscape will be retained, 2) modernize the regulatory, accreditation and reimbursement framework to maintain pace with care model innovation and 3) address disparities in access to broadband connectivity with a particular focus on rural and underserved communities.

Purpose In this work, the authors present some of the key results found during early efforts to model the COVID-19 outbreak inside a UK prison. In particular, this study describes outputs from an idealised disease model that simulates the dynamics of a COVID-19 outbreak in a prison setting when varying levels of social interventions are in place, and a Monte Carlo-based model that assesses the reduction in risk of case importation, resulting from a process that requires incoming prisoners to undergo a period of self-isolation prior to admission into the general prison population. Design/methodology/approach Prisons, typically containing large populations confined in a small space with high degrees of mixing, have long been known to be especially susceptible to disease outbreaks. In an attempt to meet rising pressures from the emerging COVID-19 situation in early 2020, modellers for Public Health England’s Joint Modelling Cell were asked to produce some rapid response work that sought to inform the approaches that Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) might take to reduce the risk of case importation and sustained transmission in prison environments. Findings Key results show that deploying social interventions has the potential to considerably reduce the total number of infections, while such actions could also reduce the probability that an initial infection will propagate into a prison-wide outbreak. For example, modelling showed that a 50% reduction in the risk of transmission (compared to an unmitigated outbreak) could deliver a 98% decrease in total number of cases, while this reduction could also result in 86.8% of outbreaks subsiding before more than five persons have become infected. Furthermore, this study also found that requiring new arrivals to self-isolate for 10 and 14 days prior to admission could detect up to 98% and 99% of incoming infections, respectively. Research limitations/implications In this paper we have presented models which allow for the studying of COVID-19 in a prison scenario, while also allowing for the assessment of proposed social interventions. By publishing these works, the authors hope these methods might aid in the management of prisoners across additional scenarios and even during subsequent disease outbreaks. Such methods as described may also be readily applied use in other closed community settings. Originality/value These works went towards informing HMPPS on the impacts that the described strategies might have during COVID-19 outbreaks inside UK prisons. The works described herein are readily amendable to the study of a range of addition outbreak scenarios. There is also room for these methods to be further developed and built upon which the timeliness of the original project did not permit.

BackgroundPeople who inject drugs (PWID) are a high-risk group for COVID-19 transmission and serious health consequences. Restrictions imposed in the UK in response to the pandemic led to rapid health and housing service alterations. We aimed to examine PWID experiences of: 1) challenges relating to the COVID-19 public health measures; 2) changes to opioid substitution therapy (OST) and harm reduction services; and 3) perceived effects of COVID-19 on drug use patterns and risk behaviour.MethodsTelephone semi-structured interviews were conducted with 28 PWID in Bristol, Southwest of England. Analysis followed a reflexive thematic analysis.ResultsConcern about COVID-19 and adherence to public health guidance varied. Efforts made by services to continue providing support during the pandemic were appreciated and some changes were preferred, such as less frequent OST collection, relaxation of supervised consumption and needle and syringe programmes (NSP) home delivery. However, remote forms of contact were highlighted as less beneficial and more difficult to engage with than in-person contact. Public health guidance advising people to ‘stay home’ led to increased isolation, boredom, and time to ruminate which impacted negatively on mental health. Lockdown restrictions directly impacted on sources of income and routine. Changes in drug use were explained as a consequence of isolation and fewer interactions with peers, problems accessing drugs, reduced drug purity and reduced financial resources.ConclusionThis study captures the significant impacts and challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lives of PWID. While rapid adaptations to service delivery to help mitigate the risks of COVID-19 were appreciated and some changes such as relaxation of supervised daily OST consumption were viewed positively, barriers to access need further attention. Going forwards there may be opportunities to harness the positive aspects of some changes to services.

Aims Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both ‘direct’, through infection, and ‘indirect’, through changes in healthcare. Methods and results We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0). Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60–100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2–3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths. Conclusion Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic., Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract

Seino, Y., Aizawa, Y., Kogetsu, A. et al. Ethical and Social Issues for Health Care Providers in the Intensive Care Unit during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: a Questionnaire Survey. ABR (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41649-021-00194-y., This questionnaire-based observational study was conducted in July 2020 with the aim of understanding the ethical and social issues faced by health care providers (HCPs) registered with the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine in intensive care units (ICUs) during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. There were 200 questionnaire respondents, and we analyzed the responses of 189 members who had been involved in COVID-19 treatment in ICUs. The ethical and social issues that HCPs recognized during the pandemic were difficulties in the decision-making process with patients’ families, limitations of life-sustaining treatment, lack of palliative care, and inadequate mental support for patients’ families and HCPs. Regarding decision-making on issues of clinical ethics during the pandemic, more than half of the respondents thought they had failed to provide sufficient palliative care to patients and responded that they experienced moral distress. The free-text responses on moral distress revealed issues such as unusual treatment and care, restricted visits, challenging situations for HCPs, and psychological burden. Additionally, 38.1% of respondents experienced episodes of social prejudice or discrimination and 4.7% experienced a shortage of medical resources. Our study result shows that the moral distress of HCPs was caused by difficulties in patient-centered decision-making and insufficient medical care to patients and their families. These were caused mainly by a lack of communication due to the stronger implementation of infection control measures. We believe that it is important to address ethical and social issues during a pandemic in order to provide appropriate medical care and prevent burnout among HCPs.

Background There is limited clinical patient data comparing the first and second waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States and the effects of a COVID-19 resurgence on different age, racial and ethnic groups. We compared the first and second COVID-19 waves in the Bronx, New York, among a racially and ethnically diverse population. Methods Patients in this retrospective cohort study were included if they had a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by a real-time PCR test of a nasopharyngeal swab specimen detected between March 11, 2020, and January 21, 2021. Main outcome measures were critical care, in-hospital acquired disease and death. Patient demographics, comorbidities, vitals, and laboratory values were also collected. Findings A total of 122,983 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, of which 12,659 tested positive. The second wave was characterized by a younger demographic, fewer comorbidities, less extreme laboratory values at presentation, and lower risk of adverse outcomes, including in-hospital mortality (adj. OR = 0·23, 99·5% CI = 0·17 to 0·30), hospitalization (adj. OR = 0·65, 99·5% CI = 0·58 to 0·74), invasive mechanical ventilation (adj. OR = 0·70, 99·5% CI = 0·56 to 0·89), acute kidney injury (adj. OR = 0·62, 99·5% CI = 0·54 to 0·71), and length of stay (adj. OR = 0·71, 99·5% CI = 0·60 to 0·85), with Black and Hispanic patients demonstrating most improvement in clinical outcomes. Interpretation The second COVID-19 wave in the Bronx exhibits improved clinical outcomes compared to the first wave across all age, racial, and ethnic groups, with minority groups showing more improvement, which is encouraging news in the battle against health disparities.

Objectives Community pharmacy teams (CPTs) were at the frontline of dealing with patients throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to explore the impact on professional practice and personal well-being of CPTs, in the UK. Methods A 25-item survey was designed including a range of open and closed questions. The survey was piloted before being published online via SurveyMonkey and distributed using social media platforms. A combination of opportunity and snowball sampling was employed to recruit participants who worked in community pharmacy (CP) during the pandemic. Results In total 758 participants (75% completion rate) including pharmacists, owners, managers, technicians, dispensers, healthcare assistants and pre-registration pharmacists took part. Increased workloads and working hours coupled with staff shortages compromised professional practice (n = 257, 35%). Some of the key challenges of working in CP during the pandemic included: a fear of contracting and passing the virus to others (n = 578, 78%), patients stockpiling medicines (n = 530, 71%) and doctors’ surgeries being closed (n = 517, 70%) The impact on emotional well-being (n = 433, 76%) included stress, anxiety, depression and loneliness; physically (n = 322, 56%) it affected sleep, pain and weight. The effects of the pandemic left 45% (n = 258/569) of participants reconsidering their future in CP as they felt demotivated, unsupported and undervalued. Conclusion Despite the enhanced pressures and lack of initial recognition CPTs played a vital role in caring for the population during the pandemic. Resources to better support pharmacy teams in the future not only rely on more funding for better provisions but also investing in CPTs’ well-being.

Lay Summary Vaccine hesitancy, the rejection or delay to get vaccinated even if there is an effective vaccine available, may be instrumental in the resurgence of vaccine-preventable disease. Studies have shown that the rise in nonmedical exemptions for vaccination increases rates of childhood vaccine-preventable disease. One factor that influences vaccine hesitancy is online misinformation. False or misleading information online regarding vaccines can be found in independent news outlets, websites, and social media. The spread of vaccine misinformation is especially important during the COVID-19 pandemic as false information can decrease pro-vaccine opinions. The recent announcement of an effective COVID-19 vaccine became a hot topic online, with many adults hesitant to take the vaccine. Public health experts, medical professionals, and pro-vaccine individuals can help curb the spread of misinformation by correcting false statements online. Social media companies can also aid in stopping misinformation by implementing and enforcing policy that limits misinformation on their platforms., Although rates of vaccination have increased worldwide, the rise in nonmedical exemptions for vaccination may have caused a resurgence of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases. Vaccine hesitancy plays an important role in the decreasing rates of vaccination and is considered by the World Health Organization as a top ten global threat to public health. Online vaccine misinformation is present in news outlets, websites, and social media, and its rapid and extensive dissemination is aided by artificial intelligence (AI). In combating online misinformation, public health experts, the medical community, and lay vaccination advocates can correct false statements using language that appeal to those who are undecided about vaccination. As the gatekeepers to online information, they can implement and enforce policy that limits or bans vaccine misinformation on their platforms. AI tools might also be used to address misinformation, but more research is needed before implementing this approach more broadly in health policy. This commentary examines the role that different online platforms appear to be playing in the spread of misinformation about vaccines. We also discuss the implications of online misinformation on attitudes about COVID-19 vaccine uptake and provide suggestions for ways to combat online misinformation.

Background: We studied lab-confirmed COVID-19 infection (LCCI) testing, incidence, and severity. Methods: We included all Manitoba residents and limited our severity analysis to LCCI patients. We calculated testing, incidence and vaccination rates between March 8, 2020 and June 1, 2021. We estimated the association between patient characteristics and testing (rate ratio [RR]; Poisson regression), including the reason for testing (screening, symptomatic, contact/outbreak asymptomatic), incidence (hazard ratio [HR]; Cox regression), and severity (prevalence ratio [PR], Cox regression). Findings: The overall testing rate during the second/third wave was 570/1,000 person-years, with an LCCI rate of 50/1,000 person-years. The secondary attack rate during the second/third wave was 16%. Across regions, young children (10 for asymptomatic residents. Interpretation: Although the severity of LCCI in children was low, they have a high risk of asymptomatic positivity. The groups most vulnerable to LCCI, who should remain a focus of public health, were residents of Manitoba's North, LTC facilities, and low-income neighbourhoods. Funding: Canada Research Chair Program

Background: To control the COVID-19 pandemic high vaccine acceptability and uptake will be needed. Teachers represent a priority population to minimize social disruption and ensure continuity in education, which is vital for the well-being and healthy development of youth during the pandemic. The objective of this analysis was to measure public school teachers' intentions to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in British Columbia (BC), Canada.Methods: A population-wide cross-sectional online survey from August to November 2020 asked all BC public school teachers with an available email address how likely they were to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Two multivariable logistic regression models explored separately sociodemographic and vaccine hesitancy predictors for intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.Results: A total of 5,076 teachers participated. The majority, 89.7%, reported they were likely or very likely to accept a COVID-19 vaccine. In multivariable regression, sociodemographic predictors of intention to be vaccinated included being male, having an educational background in science or engineering, and using reliable information sources on vaccination such as public health and health care providers. Teachers who reported lower levels of vaccine hesitancy, higher general vaccine knowledge, and belief that COVID-19 was a serious illness were more likely to intend to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.Conclusion: A high proportion of public-school teachers in BC intend to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Continued monitoring of vaccine intentions will be important to inform public health vaccine implementation.

Objectives To explore home medicine practices and safety for people shielding and/or over the age of 70 during the COVID-19 pandemic and to create guidance, from the patient/carer perspective, for enabling safe medicine practices for this population. Methods Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 50 UK participants who were shielding and/or over the age of 70 and who used medicines for a long-term condition, using telephone or video conferencing. Participants were recruited through personal/professional networks and through patient/carer organisations. Participants were asked about their experiences of managing medicines during the pandemic and how this differed from previous practices. Data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Key findings Patients’ and their families’ experiences of managing medicines safely during the pandemic varied greatly. Analysis suggests that this was based on the patient’s own agency, the functioning of their medicines system pre-pandemic and their relationships with family, friends, community networks and pharmacy staff. Medicine safety issues reported included omitted doses and less-effective formulations being used. Participants also described experiencing high levels of anxiety related to obtaining medicines, monitoring medicines and feeling at risk of contracting COVID-19 while accessing healthcare services for medicine-related issues. Effects of the pandemic on medicines adherence were reported to be positive by some and negative by others. Conclusions Pharmacy staff have a key role to play by establishing good relationships with patients and their families, working with prescribers to ensure medicines systems are as joined up as possible, and signposting to community networks that can help with medicines collection.

Background: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19 with the original virus and other lineages circulating in France. Methods: In this nationwide case-control study, cases were SARS-CoV-2 infected adults with onset of symptoms between 14 February and 3 May 2021. Controls were non-infected adults from a national representative panel matched to cases by age, sex, region, population density and calendar week. Participants completed an online questionnaire on recent activity-related exposures and vaccination history. Information about the infecting virus was based on a screening RT-PCR for either B.1.1.7 or B.1.351/P.1 variants. Findings: Included in our analysis were 7 288 adults infected with the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, 31 313 with the B.1.1.7 lineage, 2 550 with B.1.351/P1 lineages, and 3 644 controls. In multivariable analysis, the vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence interval) seven days after the second dose of mRNA vaccine was estimated at 88% (81-92), 86% (81-90) and 77% (63-86) against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively. Recent (2 to 6 months) history of virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was found to be 83% (76-88), 88% (85-91) and 83% (71-90) protective against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively; and more distant (> 6 months) infections were 76% (54-87), 84% (75-90), and 74% (41-89) protective against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively. Interpretation: In real-life settings, two doses of mRNA vaccines proved to be effective against COVID-19 with the original virus, B.1.1.7 lineage and B.1.351/P.1 lineages. Funding: Institut Pasteur, Research & Action Emerging Infectious Diseases (REACTing), Fondation de France (Alliance “Tous unis contre le virus”).

Our study aims to assess the attitudes, knowledge, and influenza vaccine uptake of school teachers, the intention to uptake influenza vaccine as well as the COVID-19 vaccine and to identify factors associated with vaccine acceptance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among elementary and kindergarten school teachers in the area of Western Greece from June 2020 to August 2020. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed via an internet-based link along with an invitation e-mail. Responses from 399 participants were retrieved. 139 (34.8%) had received the annual influenza vaccine in the season 2019–2020, whereas 215 (53.9%) stated that they would get it in the forthcoming season 2020–2021 (p

Background While the leading symptoms during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are acute and the majority of patients fully recover, a significant fraction of patients now increasingly experience long-term health consequences. However, most data available focus on health-related events after severe infection and hospitalisation. We present a longitudinal, prospective analysis of health consequences in patients who initially presented with no or minor symptoms of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Hence, we focus on mild COVID-19 in non-hospitalised patients. Methods 958 Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were observed from April 6th to December 2nd 2020 for long-term symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We identified anosmia, ageusia, fatigue or shortness of breath as most common, persisting symptoms at month 4 and 7 and summarised presence of such long-term health consequences as post-COVID syndrome (PCS). Predictors of long-term symptoms were assessed using an uni- and multivariable logistic regression model. Findings We observed 442 and 353 patients over four and seven months after symptom onset, respectively. Four months post SARS-CoV-2 infection, 8•6% (38/442) of patients presented with shortness of breath, 12•4% (55/442) with anosmia, 11•1% (49/442) with ageusia and 9•7% (43/442) with fatigue. At least one of these characteristic symptoms was present in 27•8% (123/442) and 34•8% (123/353) at month 4 and 7 post-infection, respectively. A lower baseline level of SARS-CoV-2 IgG, anosmia and diarrhoea during acute COVID-19 were associated with higher risk to develop long-term symptoms. Interpretation The on-going presence of either shortness of breath, anosmia, ageusia or fatigue as long-lasting symptoms even in non-hospitalised patients was observed at four and seven months post-infection and summarised as post-COVID syndrome (PCS). The continued assessment of patients with PCS will become a major task to define and mitigate the socioeconomic and medical long-term effects of COVID-19. Funding COVIM:„NaFoUniMedCovid19"(FKZ: 01KX2021)

Background The rate of community antibiotic use in New Zealand (NZ) is high and some may be unnecessary. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions (Alert Levels) were implemented in 2020 to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in NZ and were likely to have affected antibiotic prescribing. Methods We aimed to identify the impact of these public health interventions on community antibiotic dispensing. We also examined rates of hospitalisation with infectious diseases that could be influenced by changing community antibiotic use. A retrospective review of two national databases was undertaken. Findings 1.17 million people received 1.19 million prescriptions for antibiotics between 23/02/2020 and 18/07/2020. Antibiotic dispensing rates fell from 14 prescriptions per 1000 population per week during pre-Alert Level weeks to 9 prescriptions per 1000 population per week (a reduction of 36%) during the weeks of COVID Alert Level 3–4. Large reductions were seen with antibiotics predominantly used for respiratory- or urinary-tract infections. Hospital discharges with sentinel infections did not increase over this period; pneumonia discharges during Alert Level weeks were lower than in 2017-2019 (3 vs 6 discharges per 100,000 population). Interpretation A large reduction in community antibiotic dispensing was observed in NZ during the implementation of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions to eliminate COVID-19. Despite this marked reduction in antibiotic use, there was no increase in rates of hospitalisation for sentinel infections that community antibiotic use could prevent. These findings suggest that countries with high rates of antibiotic use could significantly reduce their use without an increase in morbidity. Funding No financial support received.

Background There is no doubt that people with dementia can greatly benefit from the COVID-19 vaccine, especially as they are at an increased risk of developing severe complications, including long hospitalizations and high mortality rates, as a result of being infected by the virus. However, they might need the encouragement of health professionals to become vaccinated. Professionals' preferences regarding vaccination for this group are, therefore, extremely important to increase the use of this preventive measure. Aims 1. To examine hospital staff members' preferences for COVID-19 vaccination to people with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD) while differentiating between a young and an old person with the disease. 2. To examine the factors associated with these preferences. Methods A cross-sectional survey using a structured and anonymous self-report questionnaire was conducted among a sample of 278 Israeli medical staff (nurses, physicians, and paraprofessionals) working at a general hospital. The data were collected in August 2021. Results Overall, the majority (68.4%) of participants chose the 80-year-old patient with a diagnosis of AD to be the last to receive the vaccine. The percentage of participants who preferred to give the vaccine first to the 55-year-old patient with AD was almost equal to the percentage of those who preferred giving the vaccine first to the 80-year-old patient who was cognitively intact. Religion and beliefs about susceptibility to contracting COVID-19 were significantly associated with participants' preferences. Conclusion Our results suggest that hospital staff members find it difficult to decide whether age or cognitive status should be the main factor in deciding which patient should receive the vaccine first. Therefore, there is a need to implement several policy and practical steps in hospitals to assist the medical staff in such decision-making processes.

Summary Background Identifying and understanding reasons for being unsure or unwilling regarding intention to be vaccinated against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may help to inform future public health messages aimed at increasing vaccination coverage. We analyzed a broad array of individual's psychological dispositions with regard to decision-making about COVID-19 vaccination in Japan. Methods A nationally representative cross-sectional web survey was conducted with 30053 Japanese adults aged 20 years or older at the end of February 2021. In addition to the question on the individual's intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19, respondents were asked about their sociodemographic, health-related, and psychological characteristics as well as information sources about COVID-19 and their levels of trust. Also, those who responded ‘not sure’ or ‘no’ regarding intention to take COVID-19 vaccine were asked why. Multinomial logistic regression with sparse group Lasso (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) penalty was used to compute adjusted odds ratios for factors associated with the intention (not sure/no versus yes). Findings The percentages of respondents who answered ‘not sure’ or ‘no’ regarding intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19 vaccine were 32.9% and 11.0%, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the perceived risks of COVID-19, perceived risk of a COVID-19 vaccine, perceived benefits of a COVID-19 vaccine, trust in scientists and public authorities, and the belief that healthcare workers should be vaccinated were significantly associated with vaccination intention. Several sources of information about COVID-19 were also significantly associated with vaccination intention, including physicians, nurses, and television, medical information sites with lower odds of being unsure or unwilling, and internet news sites, YouTube, family members, and scientists and researchers with higher odds. The higher the level of trust in television as a source of COVID-19 information, the higher the odds of responding ‘not sure’ (odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.21). We also demonstrated that many respondents presented concerns about the side effects and safety of a COVID-19 vaccine as a major reason for being unsure or unwilling. To decide whether or not to get the vaccine, many respondents requested more information about the compatibilities between the vaccine and their personal health conditions, whether other people had been vaccinated, the effectiveness of vaccines against variants, and doctors’ recommendations. Interpretation Our findings suggest that public health messaging based on the sociodemographic and psychological characteristics of those who are unsure or unwilling regarding intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19 vaccine may help to increase vaccine uptake amongst this population. Funding The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).

Accurate and effective government communication is essential for public health emergencies. To optimize the effectiveness of government crisis communication, this paper puts forward an analytical perspective of supply–demand matching based on the interaction between the government and the public. We investigate the stage characteristics and the topic evolutions of both government information supply and public information demand through combined statistical analysis, text mining, text coding and cluster analysis, using empirical data from the National Health Commission’s WeChat in China. A quantitative measure reflecting the public demand for government information supply is proposed. Result indicates that the government has provided a large amount of high-intensity epidemic-related information, with six major topics being the medical team, government actions, scientific protection knowledge, epidemic situation, high-level deployment and global cooperation. The public’s greatest information needs present different characteristics at different stages, with “scientific protection knowledge”, “government actions” and “medical teams” being the most needed in the outbreak stage, the control stage and the stable stage, respectively. The subject of oversupply is “medical team”, and the subject of short supply is “epidemic dynamics” and “science knowledge”. This paper provides important theoretical and practical value for improving the effectiveness of government communication in public health crises.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has been recognized as a trigger for redefining supply chains at the global level, and has created an intense debate within the academic community and among policy-makers and practitioners. Among other industries, health care has been dramatically hit by the scarcity of “medical products,” specifically for personal protective equipment (PPE-like), due to supply chain disruptions coupled with dramatically increased demand. We aimed to analyze how the scarcity of PPE-like during the COVID-19 pandemic has modified the behavior of decision-makers in the PPE-like supply chain at the hospital level, and to explore what changes could be implemented to cope with future PPE-like shortages. Methods We used an explorative approach based on semi-structured interviews with key informants in the Spanish health care industry. More specifically, we held interviews to industry experts at three hospitals in three Spanish regions to map the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic onto the buying decision-making process. Results Different strategies were developed by decision-makers at hospitals before, during, and after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain. Our paper offers two main findings: a) decision-makers changed their purchasing behavior from a cost main driver to guaranteeing the availability of supplies; b) they supported the idea of giving more “strategic autonomy” to Spain or Europe through back and nearshoring decisions. Conclusions This paper could be of interest to health care management at the national, regional, and hospital levels, as well as for policy-makers, since it could help to establish and configure policies to support the sourcing of medical products (specifically PPE-like) to anticipate potential supply disruptions. Our paper contributes to the limited existing literature on how purchasing strategies at the decision-maker level and supply vary in the health care industry when a public health crisis appears, and what potential solutions might be for policy-makers and practitioners involved in the health care industry.

BackgroundHealth systems are facing unprecedented socioeconomic pressures as well as the need to cope with the ongoing strain brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, the reconfiguration of health systems to encourage greater collaboration and integration has been promoted with a variety of collaborative shapes and forms being encouraged and developed. Despite this continued interest, evidence for success of these various arrangements is lacking, with the links between collaboration and improved performance often remaining uncertain. To date, many examinations of collaborations have been undertaken, but use of realist methodology may shed additional light onhowandwhycollaboration works, andwhomit benefits.MethodsThis paper seeks to test initial context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs) of interorganisational collaboration with the view to producing a refined realist theory. This phase of the realist synthesis used case study and evaluation literature; combined with supplementary systematic searches. These searches were screened for rigour and relevance, after which CMOCs were extracted from included literature and compared against existing ones for refinement, refutation, or affirmation. We also identified demi-regularities to better explain how these CMOCs were interlinked.ResultsFifty-one papers were included, from which 338 CMOCs were identified, where many were analogous. This resulted in new mechanisms such as ‘risk threshold’ and refinement of many others, including trust, confidence, and faith, into more well-defined constructs. Refinement and addition of CMOCs enabled the creation of a ‘web of causality’ depicting how contextual factors form CMOC chains which generate outputs of collaborative behaviour. Core characteristics of collaborations, such as whether they were mandated or cross-sector, were explored for their proposed impact according to the theory.ConclusionThe formulation of this refined realist theory allows for greater understanding ofhowandwhycollaborations work and can serve to inform both future work in this area and the implementation of these arrangements. Future work should delve deeper into collaborative subtypes and the underlying drivers of collaborative performance.Review registrationThis review is part of a larger realist synthesis, registered at PROSPERO with IDCRD42019149009.

All face-to-face studies were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as they could not be run in person due to rules and guidance linked to social distancing which were in force during the outbreak. Finding and testing an available COVID-secure approach for both participants and researchers was important as was the need to continue conducting such studies during this critical time. At present, the extant literature indicates a clear gap in research that elucidates how to carry out a Q methodology study online, step by step. This paper describes an option for online Q methodology using an approach that simulates all of the steps performed in a face-to-face setting using an open-source software known as Easy-HtmlQ. Using a case study in telemedicine adoption as illustration, this paper also considers the perspective of both research participants and Q methodology researchers via semi-structured interviews. Using Easy-HtmlQ V1.1 in online Q methodology studies appears to be an affordable, practical and user-friendly solution. Some of the benefits associated with running Q methodology studies online were the decreased costs, enabling the recruitment of wider number of participants, providing a COVID-19-secure environment and offering convenience to both participants and researchers during the research process. The findings of this study may contribute to increasing the number of online Q methodology studies in the future, as it has succeeded in offering a feasible approach for Q methodology researchers.

The Welsh Transplantation and Immunogenetics Laboratory (WTAIL) is responsible for managing patient work-up for haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), the only potentially curative option for many haematological and non-haematological conditions. Work-up requires regular communication between WTAIL and the transplanting clinicians, facilitated by weekly multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings, to agree decisions and proceed through each work-up stage. Effective communication and minimising error are critical, as transplanting cells from a suboptimal donor could have severe or fatal consequences for the patient. We reviewed our HSCT patient management and identified issues including staff dissatisfaction with the inefficiency of the current (paper-based) system and concern about the potential for incidents caused by errors in manual transcription of patient information and tracking clinical decisions. Another driver for change was the COVID-19 pandemic, which prevented the usual face-to-face MDT meetings in which staff would show clinicians the paper records and reports; the shift to online MDT required new ways of sharing data. In this project we developed a new central reference point for our patient management data along with electronic patient summary sheets, designed with an eye to improving safety and efficiency. Over several improvement cycles we tested and refined the summary sheets with staff and clinicians and experimented with videoconferencing to facilitate data sharing. We conducted interviews with staff from which we concluded that the new process successfully reduced transcription and duplication and improved communication with the clinicians during the pandemic. Despite an increase in workload due to build-up of active patient work-up cases during the pandemic, staff reported that the new summaries enabled them to cope well. A key initiative was creation of a ‘Task and Finish’ group that helped establish continual improvement culture and identified additional areas for improvement which have been followed up in further improvement projects.

Objective: This caregiver case study applies the lens of relational coordination theory (RC) to examine the value of telehealth as a medium of care coordination for a pediatric patient with hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (hEDS) during the COVID-19 pandemic.Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented burden on the delivery of healthcare around the globe and has increased the reliance on telehealth services. Delivering telehealth requires a high level of communication and coordination within and across providers as well as between providers, patients and their families. However, it is less clear how telehealth impacts the coordination of care. In this paper, we provide insight into the quality of care coordination between providers and an informal caregiver following policy changes to the provider payment structure in Massachusetts.Methods: This paper employs a single-case, autoethnographic study design where one of the authors uses their experiential insights, as mother of the patient, to inform a wider cultural and political understanding of the shift to remote caregiving for a pediatric patient with hEDS. Data was collected using reflective journaling, interactive interviews, and participant observation and analyzed using content analysis.Results: Findings revealed four interrelating roles of the caregiver including, logistics support, boundary spanner, home health aide, and cultural translator. The adoption of telehealth was associated with improved timeliness and frequency of communication between the caregiver and providers. Findings about the impact of telehealth adoption on accuracy of communication were mixed. Mutual respect between the caregiver and providers remained unchanged during the study period.Conclusions: This paper highlights areas where payer policy may be modified to incentivize timely communication and improve coordination of care through telehealth services. Additional insight from the perspective of an informal caregiver of a patient with a rare chronic disease provides an understudied vantage to the care coordination process. We contribute to relational coordination theory by observing the ways that caregivers function as boundary spanners, and how this process was facilitated by the adoption of telehealth. Insights from this research will inform the development of telehealth workflows to engage caregivers in a way that adds value and strengthens relational coordination in the management of chronic disease.

Refereed/Peer-reviewed COVID-19 brings increased risk to the mental health of asylum seekers and refugees in Australia on temporary visas. Rapid government changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic are resulting in significant and sustained hardship on this already vulnerable group. This discursive paper is both an explainer and a resource for mental health nurses and health professionals with scope of practice in primary care and emergency departments responding to this population. The aim of this paper is to alert clinicians to the drivers of mental and suicide related distress and to provide recommendations as to how to therapeutically engage and support this group. Drivers include complex intersections between legal uncertainty, economic, social and mental health stress as drivers of entrapment, acute mental distress and suicidal ideation. Information about the COVID-19 related factors as drivers contributing to worsening states of distress may help guide clinicians to consider protective factors designed to mitigate the onset or worsening of mental distress, plus aid in the development of health policy and service-delivery arrangements of support and therapeutic engagement.

Background The Covid-19 pandemic introduced a global crisis for the healthcare systems. Research has paid particular attention to hospitals and intensive care units. However, nursing homes and home care services in charge of a highly vulnerable group of patients have also been forced to adapt and transform to ensure the safety of patients and staff; yet they have not received enough research attention. This paper aims to explore how leaders in nursing homes and home care services used innovative solutions to handle the Covid-19 pandemic to ensure resilient performance during times of disruption and major challenges. Methods A qualitative exploratory case study was used to understand the research question. The selected case was a large city municipality in Norway. This specific municipality was heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic; therefore, information from this municipality allowed us to gather rich information. Data were collected from documents, semi-structured interviews, and a survey. At the first interview phase, informants included 13 leaders, Head of nursing home (1 participant), Head of Sec. (4 participants), Quality manager (4 participants), Head of nursing home ward (3 participants), and a Professional development nurse (1 participant), at 13 different nursing homes and home care services. At the second phase, an online survey was distributed at 16 different nursing homes and home care services to expand our understanding of the phenomenon from other leaders within the case municipality. Twenty-two leaders responded to the survey. The full dataset was analysed in accordance with inductive thematic analysis methodology. Results The empirical results from the analysis provide a new understanding of how nursing homes and home care leaders used innovative solutions to maintain appropriate care for infected and non-infected patients at their sites. The results showed that innovative solutions could be separated into technology for communication and remote care, practice innovations, service innovations, and physical innovations. Conclusion This study offers a new understanding of the influence of crisis-driven innovation for resilience in healthcare during the Covid-19 pandemic. Nursing home and home care leaders implemented several innovative solutions to ensure resilient performance during the first 6–9 months of the pandemic. In terms of resilience, different innovative solutions can be divided based on their influence into situational, structural, and systemic resilience. A framework for bridging innovative solutions and their influence on resilience in healthcare is outlined in the paper.

One of the most cost-effective strategies for fighting the spread of COVID-19 is the use of facial masks. Despite health officials’ strong efforts to communicate the importance or wearing a mask, compliance has been low in many countries. In the present paper we propose a novel behavior-intervention strategy to encourage people to wear facial masks. Three studies show that the personalization of a mask, as a form of identity expression, increases mask wearing intentions and, by extension, the percentage of individuals who wear facial masks. Given that mask wearing remains a necessity after deployment of the first vaccines, novel approaches to encouraging mask wearing are essential. Linking facial mask wearing to an individual’s identity is a promising strategy.

Identifying the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 has been an important topic throughout the pandemic. It is, in many ways, one of the most difficult scientific challenges facing the research community, as these interventions are often implemented in parallel, and it is challenging to disentangle how various methods of avoiding infection may have impacted case and death rates across the world. To this vital question, we read with interest the paper written by Savaris et al. entitled ���Stay-at-home policy is a case of exceptional fallacy: an internet-based ecological study���1. The authors found no evidence that COVID-19 deaths were reduced by more people staying at home in early 2020. However, we believe that several key deficiencies within the methodology make their conclusions unsupported., "Matters Arising" response to: R.F. Savaris, G. Pumi, J. Dalzochio & R. Kunst (2021) Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84092-1

Background There has been little research on the impact of the 2014-2015 West African Ebola crisis on people with disabilities. This paper outlines the way in which the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia in 2015 highlighted existing inequalities and exclusion of people with disabilities and their households. Methods The results presented here are part of a larger ESRC/DFID-funded mixed methods research project in Liberia (2014-2017) which included a quantitative household survey undertaken in five counties, complemented by qualitative focus group discussions and interviews with people with disabilities and other key stakeholders. Uniquely, this research gathered information about people with disabilities’ experience of the EVD outbreak, as well as additional socioeconomic and inclusion data, that compared their experience with non-disabled community members. Results Reflections by people with disabilities themselves show knowledge, preparation, and responses to the EVD epidemic was often markedly different among people with disabilities due to limited resources, lack of inclusion by many mainstream public health and medical interventions and pre-existing discrimination, marginalisation and exclusion. Interviews with other key stakeholder revealed a lack of awareness of disability issues or sufficient training to include this population systematically in both Ebola response activities and general health services. Key findings include the need to understand and mitigate direct and indirect health consequences of unequal responses to the epidemic, as well as the limited capacity of healthcare and social services to respond to people with disabilities. Conclusion There are lessons to be learned from Ebola outbreak around inclusion of people with disabilities, relevant to the current COVID-19 pandemic. Now is the time to undertake measures to ensure that people with disabilities do not continue to be marginalised and excluded during global public health emergencies.

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has presented itself as one of the most important health concerns of the 2020's, and hit the geriatric population the hardest. The presence of co-morbidities and immune ageing in the elderly lead to an increased susceptibility to COVID-19, as is the case for other influenza-like illnesses (ILI) or acute respiratory tract infections (ARI). However, little is known, about the impact of a previous or current infection on the other in terms of susceptibility, immune response, and clinical course. The aim of the "Prior Infection with SARS-COV-2" (PICOV) study is to compare the time to occurrence of an ILI or ARI between participants with a confirmed past SARS-CoV-2 infection (previously infected) and those without a confirmed past infection (naïve) in residents and staff members of nursing homes. This paper describes the study design and population characteristics at baseline., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Background Government responses to the pandemic varied in terms of timing, duration, and stringency, seeking to protect healthcare systems, whose pre-pandemic state varied significantly. Therefore, the severity of Covid-19 and, thus, excess mortality have been unequal across counties. This paper explores the geography of excess mortality and its underlying factors in 2020, highlighting the effects of health policies pre-pandemic and strategies devised by governments to cope with Covid-19. Methods Excess mortality is estimated for 79 high, medium and low-income countries. The factors of excess mortality are examined employing median quantile regression analysis. Results Health privatization, healthcare underfunding, and late implementation of containment and mitigation strategies were powerful drivers of excess mortality. By contrast, the results suggest a negative association of excess mortality with health expenditure, number of doctors and hospital beds, share of population covered by health insurance and test and trace capacity. Conclusions The evidence highlights the importance of sufficiently funded healthcare systems with universal access and strong primary healthcare in the battle against the pandemic. An early response to Covid-19, including borders’ controls and a strong test and trace capacity, could improve epidemiological surveillance and minimize excess mortality, with stringent and lengthy lockdowns not providing a significant benefit.

In April 2020, close to the start of the first U.K. COVID-19 lockdown, the U.K. government announced the development of a COVID-19 contact tracing app, which was later trialled on the U.K. island, the Isle of Wight, in May/June 2020. United Kingdom surveys found general support for the development of such an app, which seemed strongly influenced by public trust. Institutions developing the app were called upon to fulfil the commitment to public trust by acting with trustworthiness. Such calls presuppose that public trust associated with the app can emerge if the conditions for trustworthiness are met and that public trust is simplistic, i.e., linearly the sum of each member of the publics’ individual – U.K. government trust relationship. Drawing on a synthesis of the trust literature and fifteen interviews with members of the public trialling the app on the Isle of Wight, this paper aims to explore what trust mechanisms and relationships are at play when thinking about public trust in the context of the U.K. COVID-19 app. We argue that public trust is a complex social phenomenon and not linearly correlated with institutional trustworthiness. As such, attention needs to widen from calls for trustworthy infrastructures as a way to build public trust, to a deeper understanding of those doing the trusting; in particular, what or whom do people place their trust in (or not) when considering whether using the app and why. An understanding of this will help when trying to secure public trust during the implementation of necessary public health measures. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11673-021-10127-x.

We have a responsibility to obey COVID-19 rules, in order to minimize risk. Yet it is still seen as rude to challenge people who do not respect those rules, when in fact the opposite is true; it is rude to increase risk to others. In this paper I analyse the relationship between risk, responsibility, and rudeness by analysing the evolution of the main governmental slogans and rules and explore the complex relationship between simplicity, safety, and perceived fairness of these rules, and how these features in turn influence the extent to which we act responsibly. I begin by exploring the relationship between rudeness and risk in our interactions about coronavirus, before going on to analyse the importance of clear rules in minimizing tension between us, illustrating the argument with various slogans including “stay at home,” “stay alert,” and the now infamous “rule of six,” which is actually at least three different rules. Ultimately, we are faced with a paradox: people annoyed about complex/unfair rules are less likely to obey them, even if that means rules will apply for longer and even though it was noncompliance with earlier simpler rules that means new rules are necessary. And if rules make less or no sense it is harder to try to get people to follow them in your own capacity as a citizen; it is hard to police rules that are seen as arbitrary or unfair.

The inclusion of social determinants of health offers a more comprehensive lens to fully appreciate and effectively address health. However, decision-makers across sectors still struggle to appropriately recognise and act upon these determinants, as illustrated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, improving the health of populations remains challenging. This paper seeks to draw insights from the literature to better understand decision-making processes affecting health and the potential to integrate data on social determinants. We summarised commonly cited conceptual approaches across all stages of the policy process, from agenda-setting to evaluation. Nine conceptual approaches were identified, including two frameworks, two models and five theories. From across the selected literature, it became clear that the context, the actors and the type of the health issue are critical variables in decision-making for health, a process that by nature is a dynamic and adaptable one. The majority of these conceptual approaches implicitly suggest a possible role for data on social determinants of health in decision-making. We suggest two main avenues to make the link more explicit: the use of data in giving health problems the appropriate visibility and credibility they require and the use of social determinants of health as a broader framing to more effectively attract the attention of a diverse group of decision-makers with the power to allocate resources. Social determinants of health present opportunities for decision-making, which can target modifiable factors influencing health—i.e. interventions to improve or reduce risks to population health. Future work is needed to build on this review and propose an improved, people-centred and evidence-informed decision-making tool that strongly and explicitly integrates data on social determinants of health. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11524-021-00560-z.

Among the challenges presented by the SARS-CoV2 pandemic are those related to balancing societal priorities with averting threats to population health. In this exceptional context a group of Israeli physicians and public health scholars (multidisciplinary academic group on children and coronavirus [MACC]) coalesced, examining the role of children in viral transmission and assessing the necessity and consequences of restricted in-class education. Combining critical appraisal and analytical skills with public health experience, MACC advocated for safe and monitored school re-opening, stressing the importance of education as a determinant of health, continuously weighing this stance against evolving COVID-19-risk data. MACC’s activities included offering research-based advice to government agencies including Ministries of Health, Finance, and Education. In a setting where government bodies were faced with providing practical solutions to both decreasing disease transmission and maintaining society’s vital activities, and various advisors presented decision-makers with disparate views, MACC contributed epidemiological, clinical and health policy expertise to the debate regarding school closure as a pandemic control measure, and adaptations required for safe re-opening. In this paper, we describe the evolution, activities, policy inputs and media profile of MACC, and discuss the role of academics in advocacy and activism in the midst of an unprecedented public health crisis. A general lesson learned is that academics, based on the rigor of their scientific work and their perceived objectivity, can and should be mobilized to pursue and promote policies based on shared societal values as well as empiric data, even when considerable uncertainty exists about the appropriate course of action. Mechanisms should be in place to open channels to multidisciplinary academic groups and bring their input to bear on decision-making.

Background Many models are published which predict outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The generalizability of many is unknown. We evaluated the performance of selected models from the literature and our own models to predict outcomes in patients at our institution. Methods We searched the literature for models predicting outcomes in inpatients with COVID-19. We produced models of mortality or criticality (mortality or ICU admission) in a development cohort. We tested external models which provided sufficient information and our models using a test cohort of our most recent patients. The performance of models was compared using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC). Results Our literature review yielded 41 papers. Of those, 8 were found to have sufficient documentation and concordance with features available in our cohort to implement in our test cohort. All models were from Chinese patients. One model predicted criticality and seven mortality. Tested against the test cohort, internal models had an AUC of 0.84 (0.74–0.94) for mortality and 0.83 (0.76–0.90) for criticality. The best external model had an AUC of 0.89 (0.82–0.96) using three variables, another an AUC of 0.84 (0.78–0.91) using ten variables. AUC’s ranged from 0.68 to 0.89. On average, models tested were unable to produce predictions in 27% of patients due to missing lab data. Conclusion Despite differences in pandemic timeline, race, and socio-cultural healthcare context some models derived in China performed well. For healthcare organizations considering implementation of an external model, concordance between the features used in the model and features available in their own patients may be important. Analysis of both local and external models should be done to help decide on what prediction method is used to provide clinical decision support to clinicians treating COVID-19 patients as well as what lab tests should be included in order sets.

In this paper, we approach the problem of detecting and diagnosing COVID-19 infections using multisource scan images including CT and X-ray scans to assist the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system is proposed that utilizes analysis of the CT or X-ray to diagnose the impact of damage in the respiratory system per infected case. The CAD was utilized and optimized by hyper-parameters for shallow learning, e.g., SVM and deep learning. For the deep learning, mini-batch stochastic gradient descent was used to overcome fitting problems during transfer learning. The optimal parameter list values were found using the naïve Bayes technique. Our contributions are (i) a comparison among the detection rates of pre-trained CNN models, (ii) a suggested hybrid deep learning with shallow machine learning, (iii) an extensive analysis of the results of COVID-19 transition and informative conclusions through developing various transfer techniques, and (iv) a comparison of the accuracy of the previous models with the systems of the present study. The effectiveness of the proposed CAD is demonstrated using three datasets, either using an intense learning model as a fully end-to-end solution or using a hybrid deep learning model. Six experiments were designed to illustrate the superior performance of our suggested CAD when compared to other similar approaches. Our system achieves 99.94, 99.6, 100, 97.41, 99.23, and 98.94 accuracy for binary and three-class labels for the CT and two CXR datasets.

On 31st January 2020, the Italian cabinet declared a 6-month national emergency after the detection of the first two COVID-19 positive cases in Rome, two Chinese tourists travelling from Wuhan. Between then and the total lockdown introduced on 22nd March 2020 Italy was hit by an unprecedented crisis. In addition to being the first European country to be heavily swept by the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy was the first to introduce stringent lockdown measures. The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and related COVID-19 pandemic have been the worst public health challenge endured in recent history by Italy. Two months since the beginning of the first wave, the estimated excess deaths in Lombardy, the hardest hit region in the country, reached a peak of more than 23,000 deaths. The extraordinary pressures exerted on the Italian Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN) inevitably leads to questions about its preparedness and the appropriateness and effectiveness of responses implemented at both national and regional levels. The aim of the paper is to critically review the Italian response to the COVID-19 crisis spanning from the first early acute phases of the emergency (March–May 2020) to the relative stability of the epidemiological situation just before the second outbreak in October 2020.

European countries struggled to fight against the second and the third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategy widely adopted over the summer and early fall 2020 failed to contain the spread of the disease effectively. This paper sheds light on the effectiveness of such a strategy in two European countries (Spain and Italy) by analysing data from June to December 2020, collected via a large-scale online citizen survey with 95,251 and 43,393 answers in Spain and Italy, respectively. Our analysis describes several weaknesses in each of the three pillars of the TTI strategy: Test, Trace, and Isolate. We find that 40% of respondents had to wait more than 48 hours to obtain coronavirus tests results, while literature has shown that a delay of more than one day might make tracing all cases inefficient. We also identify limitations in the manual contact tracing capabilities in both countries, as only 29% of respondents in close contact with a confirmed infected individual reported having been contact traced. Moreover, our analysis shows that more than 45% of respondents report being unable to self-isolate if needed. We also analyse the mitigation strategies deployed to contain the second wave of coronavirus. We find that these interventions were particularly effective in Italy, where close contacts were reduced by more than 20% in the general population. Finally, we analyse the participants’ perceptions about the coronavirus risk associated with different daily activities. We observe that they are often gender- and age-dependent, and not aligned with the actual risk identified by the literature. This finding emphasises the importance of deploying public-health communication campaigns to debunk misconceptions about SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our work illustrates the value of online citizen surveys to quickly and efficiently collect large-scale population data to support and evaluate policy decisions to combat the spread of infectious diseases, such as coronavirus.

Introduction The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to disrupt the availability and utilization of routine and emergency health care services, with differing impacts in jurisdictions across the world. In this scoping review, we set out to synthesize documentation of the direct and indirect effect of the pandemic, and national responses to it, on maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) in Africa. Methods A scoping review was conducted to provide an overview of the most significant impacts identified up to March 15, 2022. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, HealthSTAR, Web of Science, PubMed, and Scopus electronic databases. We included peer reviewed literature that discussed maternal and child health in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic, published from January 2020 to March 2022, and written in English. Papers that did not focus on the African region or an African country were excluded. A data-charting form was developed by the two reviewers to determine which themes to extract, and narrative descriptions were written about the extracted thematic areas. Results Four-hundred and seventy-eight articles were identified through our literature search and 27 were deemed appropriate for analysis. We identified three overarching themes: delayed or decreased care, disruption in service provision and utilization and mitigation strategies or recommendations. Our results show that minor consideration was given to preserving and promoting health service access and utilization for mothers and children, especially in historically underserved areas in Africa. Conclusions Reviewed literature illuminates the need for continued prioritization of maternity services, immunization, and reproductive health services. This prioritization was not given the much-needed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic yet is necessary to shield the continent’s most vulnerable population segments from the shocks of current and future global health emergencies.

ObjectivesCOVID-19 has altered health sector capacity in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cost data to inform evidence-based priority setting are urgently needed. Consequently, in this paper, we calculate the full economic health sector costs of COVID-19 clinical management in 79 LMICs under different epidemiological scenarios.MethodsWe used country-specific epidemiological projections from a dynamic transmission model to determine number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths over 1 year under four mitigation scenarios. We defined the health sector response for three base LMICs through guidelines and expert opinion. We calculated costs through local resource use and price data and extrapolated costs across 79 LMICs. Lastly, we compared cost estimates against gross domestic product (GDP) and total annual health expenditure in 76 LMICs.ResultsCOVID-19 clinical management costs vary greatly by country, ranging between ConclusionsWe present the first dataset of COVID-19 clinical management costs across LMICs. These costs can be used to inform decision-making on priority setting. Our results show that COVID-19 clinical management costs in LMICs are substantial, even in scenarios of moderate social distancing. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable and some will struggle to cope with almost any epidemiological scenario. The choices facing LMICs are likely to remain stark and emergency financial support will be needed.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an extraordinary challenge for public health and health policy. From a systemic coping perspective, questions concerning the main strategies to cope with this situation and the lessons to be learned from these strategies arise. This conceptual paper aimed to clarify these questions by using sociological concepts. Concerning the coping strategy questions, we see a strong tendency in health policy to rely on expert knowledge rather than on evidence-based knowledge. The evidence-based healthcare community reacts to this and responds to urgent demands for advice by processing new knowledge rapidly. Despite these attempts, makers of health policy still mainly rely on experts. Our sociological analysis of this situation led to three lessons learned to cope with pandemic and non-pandemic health challenges, namely (1) the phenomenon of accelerating knowledge processing could be interpreted from the organizational innovation perspective as a shift from traditional mechanistic knowledge processing to more organic forms. The first lesson learned is that this “organic turn” should be the first choice in fast-moving areas in health sciences in the future; (2) the return of the experts is part of this organic turn and shows that experts provide “ideal” evidence-based knowledge plus additional helpful knowledge components. The second lesson learned is that these additional components – theoretical, experiential and context knowledge – should be integrated with evidence-based knowledge and, in sum, lead to knowledge-based health policy advice; (3) Experts can use theory to provide advice expeditiously in times when there is limited evidence available and provide orientation in times where knowledge production leads to an overload of knowledge. Therefore, the third lesson learned is that evidence-based knowledge should be complemented by theory-based knowledge in a structured two-way interaction to obtain the most comprehensive and valid recommendations for knowledge-based health policy from science, in both unstable situations such as pandemics and in more stable times.

The pandemic declared in many countries in 2020 due to COVID-19 led to the freezing of economies and the introduction of distance learning in both schools and universities. This unusual situation has affected the mental state of citizens, which has the potential to lead to the development of post-traumatic stress and depression. This study aimed to assess the level of stress in dental students in the context of the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic. A survey on the PSS-10 scale was prepared to measure the level of perceived stress. The study included 164 dental students at the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the Medical University of Silesia in Katowice, Poland. The results showed the impact of COVID-19 on the stress of students, with 67.7% reporting high levels of stress. The study also revealed that stress was higher among older female students. This paper recommends that the university provide more intensive psychological care as psychological first aid strategies in epidemics or natural disasters and to consider telemedicine in order to deliver services due to the limitations of the pandemic.

ObjectiveInequality is deeply embedded in our economic structures—it is necessary to address these economic inequalities if we are to reduce health inequalities. An inclusive economic approach was conceptualised as a way to reduce these economic inequalities, although the attributes of this approach are unclear. Public health practitioners are increasingly asked to provide a health perspective on the economic recovery plans in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to identify the attributes of an inclusive economy to enable the public health profession to influence an inclusive economic recovery.ApproachWe conducted a rapid review of grey and peer-reviewed literature to identify the attributes of an inclusive economy as currently defined in the literature.Attributes of an inclusive economyTwenty-two concepts were identified from 56 reports and articles. These were collapsed into four distinct attributes of an inclusive economy: (1) an economy that is designed to deliver inclusion and equity, (2) equitable distribution of the benefits from the economy (eg, assets, power, value), (3) equitable access to the resources needed to participate in the economy (eg, health, education), and (4) the economy operates within planetary boundaries.ConclusionAs economies are (re)built following the COVID-19 pandemic, these attributes of an inclusive economy—based on the current literature—can be used to develop, and then monitor progress of, economic policy that will reduce health inequalities, improve health and mitigate against climate change.

Simulation models have always been an aid in epidemiology for understanding the spread of epidemics and evaluating their containment policies. This paper illustrates how hybrid simulation can support companies in assessing COVID-19 containment measures in indoor environments. In particular, a Hybrid Simulation (HS) is presented. The HS model consists of an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) to simulate the virus contagion model and a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model to simulate the interactions between flows of people in an indoor environment. Compared with previous works in the field of simulation and COVID-19, this study provides the possibility to model the specific behaviors of individuals moving in time and space and the proposed HS model could be adapted to several epidemiological conditions (just setting different parameters in the agent-based model) and different kinds of facilities. The HS approach has been developed and then successfully tested with a real case study related to a university campus in northern Italy. The case study highlights the potentials of hybrid simulation in assessing the effectiveness of the containment measures adopted during the period under examination in the pandemic context. From a managerial perspective, this study, exploiting the complementarity of the ABM and DES approaches in a HS model, provides a complete and usable tool to support decision-makers in evaluating different contagion containment measures.