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Increasingly stringent pollutant emission regulations and a customer demand for a high-fuel economy drive the modern automotive industry to hurriedly solve the problem of decarbonization and powertrain efficiency, leading R&D towards alternative powertrain solutions and fuels. Electrification, today, plays the biggest role in the topic, with Mild Hybrid Electrified Vehicles (MHEVs) being the most cost-effective architectures, displaying dominance in smaller markets such as Brazil. One of the biggest challenges for HEVs' development is the complexity of the hybrid control system, knowing when to actuate the electric machine, and the optimum power delivery, plus the gearshift schedule becomes a hard optimization problem that plays a key role in powertrain efficiency and cost savings for the customer. This paper proposes the implementation of a genetic algorithm (GA) as a machine learning-based control strategy to determine the torque split and the gear engaged for each driving condition of an MHEV operation, aiming to optimize fuel consumption. A quasi-static model of the vehicle was developed in Matlab/Simulink version 2022b, the virtual vehicle was then tested following the FTP75 and HWFET driving cycles. Simulation results indicate that the control decisions taken by the GA are qualitatively coherent for all operation conditions, and even quantitatively coherent in some cases, and that the software has the potential to be used as a control strategy outside the simulation environment, in future steps of development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leptospirosis is a global disease that impacts people worldwide, particularly in humid and tropical regions, and is associated with significant socio-economic deficiencies. Its symptoms are often confused with other syndromes, which can compromise clinical diagnosis and the failure to carry out specific laboratory tests. In this respect, this paper presents a study of three algorithms (Decision Tree, Random Forest and Adaboost) for predicting the outcome (cure or death) of individuals with leptospirosis. Using the records contained in the government National System of Aggressions and Notification (SINAN, in portuguese) from 2007 to 2017, for the state of Pará, Brazil, where the temporal attributes of health care, symptoms (headache, vomiting, jaundice, calf pain) and clinical evolution (renal failure and respiratory changes) were used. In the performance evaluation of the selected models, it was observed that the Random Forest exhibited an accuracy of 90.81% for the training dataset, considering the attributes of experiment 8, and the Decision Tree presented an accuracy of 74.29 for the validation database. So, this result considers the best attributes pointed out by experiment 10: time first symptoms medical attention, time first symptoms ELISA sample collection, medical attention hospital admission time, headache, calf pain, vomiting, jaundice, renal insufficiency, and respiratory alterations. The contribution of this article is the confirmation that artificial intelligence, using the Decision Tree model algorithm, depicting the best choice as the final model to be used in future data for the prediction of human leptospirosis cases, helping in the diagnosis and course of the disease, aiming to avoid the evolution to death., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The global energy market has significantly developed in recent years; proof of this is the creation and promotion of smart grids and technical advances in energy commercialization and transmission. Specifically in the Brazilian context, with the recent modernization of the electricity sector, energy trading prices, previously published on a weekly frequency, are now available on an hourly domain. In this context, the definition and forecasting of prices become increasingly important factors for the economic and financial viability of energy projects. In this scenario of changes in the local regulatory framework, there is a lack of publications based on the new hourly prices in Brazil. This paper presents, in a pioneering way, the Dynamic Time Scan Forecasting (DTSF) method for forecasting hourly energy prices in Brazil. This method searches for similarity patterns in time series and, in previous investigations, showed competitive advantages concerning established forecasting methods. This research aims to test the accuracy of the DTSF method against classical statistical models and machine learning. We used the short-term prices of electricity in Brazil, made available by the Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber. The new DTSF model showed the best predictive performance compared to both the statistical and machine learning models. The DTSF performance was superior considering the evaluation metrics utilized in this paper. We verified that the predictions made by the DTSF showed less variability compared to the other models. Finally, we noticed that there is not an ideal model for all predictive 24 steps ahead forecasts, but there are better models at certain times of the day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition to a low-carbon economy is one of the main challenges of our time. In this context, solar energy, along with many other technologies, has been developed to optimize performance. For example, solar trackers follow the sun's path to increase the generation capacity of photovoltaic plants. However, several factors need consideration to further optimize this process. Important variables include the distance between panels, surface reflectivity, bifacial panels, and climate variations throughout the day. Thus, this paper proposes an artificial intelligence-based algorithm for solar trackers that takes all these factors into account—mainly weather variations and the distance between solar panels. The methodology can be replicated anywhere in the world, and its effectiveness has been validated in a real solar plant with bifacial panels located in northeastern Brazil. The algorithm achieved gains of up to 7.83% on a cloudy day and obtained an average energy gain of approximately 1.2% when compared to a commercial solar tracker algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Brazilian state of São Paulo, contaminated sites (CSs) constitute threats to health, environment and socioeconomic situation of populations. Over the past two decades, the Environmental Agency of São Paulo (CETESB) has monitored these known CSs. This paper discusses the produced dataset through digitising the CETESB reports and making them accessible to the public in English. The dataset reports on qualitative aspects of contamination within the registered sites (e.g., contamination type and spread) and their management status. The data was extracted from CETESB reports using a machine-learning computer vision algorithm. It comprises two components: an optical character recognition (OCR) engine for text extraction and a convolutional neural network (CNN) image classifier to identify checked boxes. The digitisation was followed by harmonisation and quality assurance processes to ensure the consistency and validity of the data. Making this dataset accessible will allow future work on predictive analysis and decision-making and will inform the required policy-making to improve the management of the CSs in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paper aims: This article investigates the worldwide trend of growth in the number of recalls, as well as in the number of products involved in each campaign. Originality: To investigate these facts, a study of the automotive recall was developed, comprising Brazil, the European Union, and the United States of America. Research method: Due to the different availabilities between the locations, search tools and software were developed to obtain and group hidden data from 2010 to 2019. Main findings: In this work, the impacts of the recall were analyzed using three categories of algorithms: clustering, classification, and regression. Analyzes were made about the results obtained and discussions were built about the importance of applying the machine learning technique. Implications for theory and practice: The use of search tools and software to obtain and group hidden data in databases and opens the opportunity for new research in various areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paper aims: To predict monthly corn, soybean, and sugar spot prices in Brazil using hybrid forecasting techniques. Originality: This study combines the Singular Spectrum Analysis with different forecasting methods. Research method: This paper presents a set of hybrid forecasting approaches combining Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with different univariate time series methods, ranging from complex seasonality methods to machine learning and autoregressive models to predict monthly corn, soybean, and sugar spot prices in Brazil. We carry out a range of out-ofsample forecasting experiments and use a comprehensive set of forecast evaluation metrics. We contrast the performance of the proposed approaches with that of a range of benchmark models. Main findings: The results show that the proposed hybrid models present better performances, with the hybrid SSA-neural network approach providing the most competitive results in our sample. Implications for theory and practice: Forecasting agricultural prices is of paramount importance to assist producers, farmers, and the industry in decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Brazil has consolidated a relevant position in the world market, being the largest exporter and second producer of beef. Genetics, feeding system, geographic origin and climate influence the multielement profile of beef. The feasibility of combining classification algorithms with major and trace elements was evaluated as a tool for authentication of beef cuts., Methods: Animals of Angus, Nelore and Wagyu crossbreeds, raised in a vertically integrated system, were sampled at the slaughterhouse for chuck steak, rump cap and sirloin steak. Supervised learning algorithms i.e. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF) and Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) were used to build classification models based on the multielement profile of beef determined by neutron activation analysis., Results: Br, Co, Cs, Fe, K, Na, Rb, Se and Zn were determined in the beef samples. The classification accuracy values obtained for the beef cuts were 96% (MLP), 95% (SMO), 91% (RF), 86% (NB) and 70% (CART)., Conclusion: The Multilayer Perceptron algorithm provided the best classification performance towards authentication of beef cuts on basis of major and trace element mass fractions., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

Studies comparing large-scale assessment data among educational systems have been an important tool for understanding the differences in how education is delivered worldwide. Many of these studies do not go beyond reporting average student scores in a particular educational system. A more unbiased analysis would avoid the simple use of gross performance and consider educational system contexts. A common approach is to estimate effectiveness by the residuals of parametric linear models. These models rely upon strong assumptions regarding the data-generating process, and are limited to handling extensive datasets. To address this issue, our paper provides a new approach based on machine learning models. The new approach is flexible, allows paired comparison, and is model-independent. An analysis conducted in Brazil verifies the suitability of the method to explore differences in effectiveness between Brazilian educational administrative units at the regional and state levels from 2009 to 2019. Our results are consistent with the existing literature, but the methodology produced a number of new findings that were not observed in studies using more traditional approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The delineation of management zones is one of the ways to enable the spatially differentiated management of plots using precision agriculture tools. Over the years, the spatial variability of data collected from soil and plant sampling started to be replaced by data collected by proximal and orbital sensors. As a result, the variety and volume of data have increased considerably, making it necessary to use advanced computational tools, such as machine learning, for data analysis and decision-making support. This paper presents a methodology used to establish management zones (MZ) in precision agriculture by analyzing data obtained from soil sampling, proximal sensors and orbital sensors, in experiments carried out in four plots featuring soybean–cotton and soybean–corn crops, in Mato Grosso and Paraná states, Brazil. Four procedures were evaluated, using different input data sets for the MZ delineation: (I) soil attributes, including clay content, apparent electrical conductivity or fertility, along with elevation, yield maps and vegetation indices (VIs) captured during the peak crop biomass period; (II) soil attributes in conjunction with VIs demonstrating strong correlations; (III) solely VIs exhibiting robust correlation with soil attributes and yield; (IV) VIs selected via random forests to identify the importance of the variable for estimating yield. The results showed that the VIs derived from satellite images could effectively replace other types of data. For plots where the natural spatial variability can be easily identified, all procedures favor obtaining MZ maps that allow reductions of 40% to 70% in yield variance, justifying their use. On the other hand, in plots with low natural spatial variability and that do not have reliable yield maps, different data sets used as input do not help in obtaining feasible MZ maps. For areas where anthropogenic activities with spatially differentiated treatment are already present, the exclusive use of VIs for the delineation of MZs must be carried out with reservations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

User eXperience (UX) has been used to achieve improvements in digital information systems based on how people perceive them. In particular, this paper establishes a framework that employs methods for eye and mouse tracking, keyboard input, self-assessment questionnaire and artificial intelligence algorithms to evaluate user experience and categorize users in terms of performance profiles. The results obtained with this framework are artifacts that can be used to support customizations of the User Interface (UI) on the websites. Moreover, the established framework is generic and flexible and can be applied to any information system, such as the case study shown in the website of the Federal Revenue of Brazil (RFB). The main objectives of this paper are as follows: (i) to set out a powerful UX framework based on three tracking techniques – the AIT2-UX; (ii) to provide the T2-UXT to collect, collate, process and visualize data obtained from users' interactions (iii) to use and compare machine learning algorithms with the classification of user performance profiles; (iv) to use the artifacts generated by the framework to manually customize the UI with the website. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease surveillance is used to monitor ongoing control activities, detect early outbreaks, and inform intervention priorities and policies. However, data from disease surveillance that could be used to support real-time decisionmaking remain largely underutilised. Using the Brazilian Amazon malaria surveillance dataset as a case study, in this paper we explore the potential for unsupervised anomaly detection machine learning techniques to discover signals of epidemiological interest. We found that our models were able to provide an early indication of outbreak onset, outbreak peaks, and change points in the proportion of positive malaria cases. Specifically, the sustained rise in malaria in the Brazilian Amazon in 2016 was flagged by several models. We found that no single model detected all anomalies across all health regions. Because of this, we provide the minimum number of machine learning models top-k models) to maximise the number of anomalies detected across different health regions. We discovered that the top three models that maximise the coverage of the number and types of anomalies detected across the thirteen health regions are principal component analysis, stochastic outlier selection, and the minimum covariance determinant. Anomaly detection is a potentially valuable approach to discovering patterns of epidemiological importance when confronted with a large volume of data across space and time. Our exploratory approach can be replicated for other diseases and locations to inform monitoring, timely interventions, and actions towards the goal of controlling endemic disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had social and clinical effects over the healthcare system. Globally, over 314.019.135 confirmed cases and 5.507.370 deaths have been recorded at 12 January 2022, based on the Dashboard updated by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. The continuous rise in the number of asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and symptomatic patients has developed efficient and accessible models for prediction using Open Source Libraries and Cloud Services. This paper proposes different machine-learning algorithms to analyse the COVID-19 OpenData Resources from Mexico and Brazil, which represent the two major populations, economics and affected by disease countries in Latin America. This model uses only the COVID-19 patient's geographical, social conditions, economics conditions, clinical risk factors, symptom reports, and demographic data to predict recovery and death. The model of Mexico has an accuracy of 93% and the perceived mean of recall and the precision (F1 Score) of 0.79 on the dataset used. On the other hand, the model of Brazil has an accuracy of 69% and F1 score of 0.75 on the dataset studied. The result considers data from patients under the age of 0 and 120 years. The contribution of the work is the application of Big Data technologies and Machine Learning algorithms using Open Resource Libraries and Amazon Web Services (AWS) with the vision to improve the clinical diagnosis, even infectious disease with mathematical approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a destructive effect on the health and well-being of the global population. A vital step in the battle against it is the successful screening of infected patients, together with one of the effective screening methods being radiology examination using chest radiography. Recognition of epidemic growth patterns across temporal and social factors can improve our capability to create epidemic transmission designs, including the critical job of predicting the estimated intensity of the outbreak morbidity or mortality impact at the end. The study's primary motivation is to be able to estimate with a certain level of accuracy the number of deaths due to COVID-19, managing to model the progression of the pandemic. Predicting the number of possible deaths from COVID-19 can provide governments and decision-makers with indicators for purchasing respirators and pandemic prevention policies. Thus, this work presents itself as an essential contribution to combating the pandemic. Kalman Filter is a widely used method for tracking and navigation and filtering and time series. Designing and tuning machine learning methods are a labor- and time-intensive task that requires extensive experience. The field of automated machine learning Auto Machine Learning relies on automating this task. Auto Machine Learning tools enable novice users to create useful machine learning units, while experts can use them to free up valuable time for other tasks. This paper presents an objective method of forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak using Kalman Filter and Auto Machine Learning. We use a COVID-19 dataset of Ceará, one of the 27 federative units in Brazil. Ceará has more than 235,222 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 8850 deaths due to the disease. The TPOT automobile model showed the best result with a 0.99 of R 2 score. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Censuses and other surveys responsible for gathering socioeconomic data are expensive and time consuming. For this reason, in poor and developing countries there often is a long gap between these surveys, which hinders the appropriate formulation of public policies as well as the development of researches. One possible approach to overcome this challenge for some socioeconomic indicators is to use satellite imagery to estimate these variables, although it is not possible to replace demographic census surveys completely due to its territorial coverage, level of disaggregation of information and large set of information. Even though using orbital images properly requires, at least, a basic remote sensing knowledge level, these images have the advantage of being commonly free and easy to access. In this paper, we use daytime and nighttime satellite imagery and apply a transfer learning technique to estimate average income, GDP per capita and a constructed water index at the city level in two Brazilian states, Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. The transfer learning approach could explain up to 64% of the variation in city-level variables depending on the state and variable. Although data from different countries may be considerably different, results are consistent with the literature and encouraging as it is a first analysis of its kind for Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper dissects the potential of state-of-the-art computational analysis to promote the investigation of government's administrative decisions and politics. The Executive Branch generates massive amounts of textual data comprising daily decisions in several levels and stages of the law and decree-making processes. The use of automated text analysis to explore this data based on the substantive interests of scholars runs into computational challenges. Computational methods have been applied to texts from the Legislative and Judicial Branches; however, there barely are suitable taxonomies to automate the classification and analysis of the Executive's administrative decrees. To solve this problem, we put forward a computational framework to analyze the Brazilian administrative decrees from 2000 to 2019. Our strategy to uncover the contents and patterns of the presidential decree-making is developed in three main steps. First, we conduct an unsupervised text analysis through the LDA algorithm for topic modeling. Second, building upon the LDA results, we propose two taxonomies for the classification of decrees: (a) the ministerial coauthorship of the decrees to map policy areas and (b) the decrees' fields of law based on a tagging system provided by the Brazilian Senate. Using these taxonomies, we compare the performance of three supervised text classification algorithms: SVM, Convolutional Neural Network, and Hierarchical Attention Network, achieving F1-scores of up to 80% when automatically classifying decrees. Third, we analyze the network generated by links between decrees through centrality and clustering approaches, distinguishing a set of administrative decisions related to the president's priorities in the economic policy area. Our findings confirm the potential of our computational framework to explore N-large datasets, advance exploratory studies, and generate testable propositions in different research areas. They advance the monitoring of Brazil's administrative decree-making process that is shaped by the president's priorities and by the interplay among cabinet members., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

[Display omitted] • Assessment of the status and trends of PV DG in Brazil based on big data processing; • Application of machine learning algorithms to estimate the installed power of individual systems; • Application of forecasting models to predict the installed power of PV DG over time in Brazil and its regions; • Application of the DEA method to rank Brazilian states in terms of efficiency in PV DG deployment; • The paper is expected to be valuable for regulatory agencies, researchers, and PV aggregator companies. The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) has been increasing substantially in Brazil. In this context, the present paper exploits a robust dataset provided by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) to evaluate the status and trends concerning PV DG. As of Nov/2022, such a dataset consists of more than 1,4 million lines (one for each system) and thirty columns (various information concerning the systems). For an in-depth assessment, three items are addressed: (i) the application of machine learning algorithms to estimate the installed power of individual systems based on other information available in the dataset, (ii) the application of forecasting models to predict the installed power of PV DG over time in Brazil and its regions, and (iii) the application of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to rank Brazilian states in terms of efficiency in PV DG deployment. While items (i)-(iii) present distinct specific goals, they use the same dataset and provide essential insights concerning PV DG in Brazil. In item (i), elastic net (EN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extra tree (ET), AdaBoost (AB), and gradient boosting (GB) are applied to select the most accurate algorithm. In item (ii), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES), Bass diffusion model (BDM), and multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN) are applied. In item (iii), output-oriented DEA CCR and BCC are applied. Concerning item (i), results demonstrate that estimating the installed power of individual systems is not very simple. Nonetheless, the machine learning algorithms imply a significant accuracy increase compared to taking the dataset's average as the estimation, especially the DT and RF algorithms with a coefficient of determination of 29%. Regarding item (ii), results demonstrate that the installed capacity in Brazil and its regions is expected to increase approximately linearly in the horizon of months but with weekly seasonal characteristics. Moreover, the most accurate model depends on the region, i.e., the ANN is superior for the Northeast (MAPE of 3.25%) and South (MAPE of 1.28%) regions, the HWES method is superior for Brazil (MAPE of 0.51%) and the Southeast region (MAPE of 2.26%), and the BDM is superior for the Mid-west (MAPE of 1.95%) and North (MAPE of 3.37%) regions. Concerning item (iii), results demonstrate that DEA CCR is more representative of the Brazilian reality since DEA BCC assigns several states as efficient, even if they showcase a very low installed capacity, particularly small states. DEA CCR indicates that Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso are the most efficient states in PV DG deployment relative to their inputs, closely followed by São Paulo with an efficiency of 95%. Furthermore, states located in the North and Northeast region require more attention from ANEEL since their efficiencies are generally low. A literature review demonstrated that this paper is the first of its kind in exploiting so thoroughly and robustly the dataset provided by ANEEL. Therefore, the paper is expected to assist ANEEL in the task of properly regulating the sector and also assist researchers and PV aggregator companies through in-depth insights. Moreover, the conducted procedures can also be applied to other countries with available datasets, thus ensuring high applicability for the research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subduction and export of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is important for the heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrient budgets of the world's oceans. Three types of AAIW are identified by applying an unsupervised machine learning approach to individual Argo profiles. The likely sources and pathways of these AAIWs are indicated by the locations and magnitudes of the salinity and oxygen extrema. The Southeast Pacific AAIW forms north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF) in the west corner of the Drake Passage and is exported north into the subtropical gyre. The South Pacific AAIW forms in the South Pacific along the SAF and is transported through the Drake Passage, thereby becoming a saliter and denser AAIW. The circumpolar AAIW, the coldest and freshest AAIW, has a circumpolar source and is injected into the ocean interior in the Brazil‐Malvinas confluence. The results clarify different types of AAIW have different origins. Plain Language Summary: The formation and export of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) strongly influence the global climate system by redistributing heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrients from high latitudes to the tropics. Thanks to an increasing number of observations from autonomous instruments and Argo floats, our understanding of the sources and pathways of AAIW has deepened in recent decades. Even so, there is controversy about the formation of AAIW. Unlike previous studies using traditional property‐driven classification, we apply an unsupervised classification technique to automatically classify the Argo temperature and salinity profiles and identify three types of AAIWs from the regimes in the Southern Ocean. The classification results are consistent with previous studies. Moreover, we find that different types of AAIW form in different regions. This paper shows that the machine learning technique benefits us in dealing with a large data set and identifying AAIW classes that is hard to distinguish by the traditional property‐driven classification method. Key Points: An unsupervised learning approach, the profile classification model (PCM), is applied to classify Argo temperature and salinity profilesPCM identifies three types of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the Southern Ocean and reveals their locations and boundariesThe Polar Frontal Zone in the South Pacific sector is established as the source region for AAIW formation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM), like other geoscience fields, is subject to a variety of uncertainties. When data about unfavorable sites to find deposits (i.e., drill intersections to barren rocks) is lacking in MPM using machine learning (ML) methods, the synthetic generation of negative datasets is required. As a result, techniques for selecting point locations to represent negative examples must be employed. Several approaches have been proposed in the past; however, one can never be certain that the points chosen are true negatives or, at the very least, optimal for training. As a consequence, methodologies that account for the uncertainty of the generation of negative datasets in MPM are needed. In this paper, we compare two criteria for selecting negative examples and quantify the uncertainty associated with this process by generating 400 potential maps for each of the three ML methods utilized (200 maps for each criterion), which include random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbors (KNC). The results showed that applying a geological constraint to the creation of negative datasets reduced prediction uncertainty and improved overall model performance but produced larger areas of very high probability (i.e., >0.9) when compared to using only the spatial distribution of known deposits and occurrences as a constraint. SHAP values were used to find approximations for the importance of features in nonlinear methods, and kernel density estimations were used to examine how they varied depending on the negative dataset used to train the ML models. Prospectivity models for magmatic-hydrothermal gold deposits were generated using data from the shuttle radar terrain mission, gamma-ray, magnetic lineaments, and proximity to dykes. The Juruena Mineral Province, situated in Northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, represented the case study for this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological advances in recent decades, especially in molecular genetics, have enabled the detection of genetic DNA markers associated with productive characteristics in animals. However, the prospection of polymorphisms based on DNA sequencing is still expensive for the reality of many food-producing regions around the world, such as Brazil, demanding more accessible prospecting methods. In the present study, the Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and machine learning algorithms were used to identify single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in animal DNA. The fragments of bovine DNA with well-known polymorphisms were used as a model. The DNA fragments were produced and genotyped by PCR-RFLP and classified according to the genotype (homozygous or heterozygous). FTIR spectra of DNA fragments were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA) and machine learning algorithms. The best results exhibited 75-95% accuracy in the classification of bovine genotypes. Therefore, FTIR spectroscopy and multivariate analysis can be used as an alternative tool for prospecting polymorphisms in animal DNA. The method can contribute with studies to identify genetic markers associated with animal production and indirectly with food production itself, and reduce pressure on available natural resources., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper proposes a new hybrid SVR-ANN model for water demand forecasting. Where an adaptation of the methodology proposed by Zhang (Neurocomputing 50:159–175, 2003) is used to decompose the time series of 10 reservoirs that supply the Metropolitan Region of Salvador (RMS). The data used are from the historical consumption from January 2017 to February 2022, obtained from the local supply company, Empresa Baiana de Águas e Saneamento, and meteorological data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil. The results demonstrated the feasibility of using the proposed model, compared to other traditional models such as the multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), short long-term memory (LSTM) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar irradiance forecasting has been an essential topic in renewable energy generation. Forecasting is an important task because it can improve the planning and operation of photovoltaic systems, resulting in economic advantages. Traditionally, single models are employed in this task. However, issues regarding the selection of an inappropriate model, misspecification, or the presence of random fluctuations in the solar irradiance series can result in this approach underperforming. This paper proposes a heterogeneous ensemble dynamic selection model, named HetDS, to forecast solar irradiance. For each unseen test pattern, HetDS chooses the most suitable forecasting model based on a pool of seven well-known literature methods: ARIMA, support vector regression (SVR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), extreme learning machine (ELM), deep belief network (DBN), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting (GB). The experimental evaluation was performed with four data sets of hourly solar irradiance measurements in Brazil. The proposed model attained an overall accuracy that is superior to the single models in terms of five well-known error metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In sucker-rod pumping wells, due to the lack of an early diagnosis of operating condition or sensor faults, several problems can go unnoticed. These problems can increase downtime and production loss. In these wells, the diagnosis of operation conditions is carried out through downhole dynamometer cards, via pre-established patterns, with human visual effort in the operation centers. Starting with machine learning algorithms, several papers have been published on the subject, but it is still common to have doubts concerning the difficulty level of the dynamometer card classification task and best practices for solving the problem. In the search for answers to these questions, this work carried out sixty tests with more than 50,000 dynamometer cards from 38 wells in the Mossoró, RN, Brazil. In addition, it presented test results for three algorithms (decision tree, random forest and XGBoost), three descriptors (Fourier, wavelet and card load values), as well as pipelines provided by automated machine learning. Tests with and without the tuning of hypermeters, different levels of dataset balancing and various evaluation metrics were evaluated. The research shows that it is possible to detect sensor failures from dynamometer cards. Of the results that will be presented, 75% of the tests had an accuracy above 92% and the maximum accuracy was 99.84%.

Knowledge and monitoring of invasive species are fundamental measures to determine the short- and long-term effect on invaded ecosystems, in addition to developing strategies to control the problem or its specific solution. In this context, the lionfish is an invasive species that worries managers and scientists of fisheries and marine conservation, this is due to the affected area that spread starting from the east coast of the United States to the coasts of Brazil and it is recently extending to include the Mediterranean Sea. The diet of the invasive fish is small species of fish, crustaceans and invertebrates; the consequent damage is the decrease of food for species at the next level of the food chain and the lack of species to keep coral reefs healthy. In this paper, we propose a lionfish detection system that will be installed in an autonomous underwater vehicle, as part of a monitoring strategy that will allow real-time determination of the number of Lionfish, their location and without human intervention. We compared two detection systems, namely YOLOv4 and SSD-Mobilenet-v2, by training with cross-validation and evaluation with the test set we obtained the best model with 63.66% recall, 89.79% precision, and 79.15% mAP with images in the natural environment, implemented on NVIDIA's Jetson Nano embedded system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A documentary review was carried out on the production and publication of research papers related to the study of the variables INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE and AUTOMATIC LEARNING. The purpose of the bibliometric analysis proposed in this document was to know the main characteristics of the volume of publications registered in the Scopus database during the period 2017-2022 by Latin American institutions, achieving the identification of 196 publications. The information provided by this platform was organized through graphs and figures categorizing the information by Year of Publication, Country of Origin, Area of Knowledge and Type of Publication. Once these characteristics have been described, the position of different authors towards the proposed theme is referenced through a qualitative analysis. Among the main findings made through this research, it is found that Brazil with 104 publications was the Latin American country with the highest scientific production registered in the name of authors affiliated with institutions of that nation. The Area of Knowledge that made the greatest contribution to the construction of bibliographic material referring to the study of Intelligent Systems, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning was Computer Science with 151 published documents, and the Type of Publication most used during the period indicated above were Conference Articles with 55% of the total scientific production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity generation in Brazil heavily depends on hydroelectric power, making it vulnerable to fluctuations due to its reliance on weather patterns. Accurately forecasting water inflow into hydroelectric plants is vital for the National Electric System Operator to make decisions regarding the monthly scheduling and operation of the power system. In this paper, an evaluation of predicted flows for a 14-day horizon are evaluated for the Tucuruíhydroelectric plant, located in the Tocantins river in the North of Brazil. The temporal fusion transformer (TFT), long short-term memory (LSTM), and temporal convolutional networks (TCN) are compared. The findings demonstrate that the TFT is a more suitable alternative than LSTM and TCN models for predicting inflows for the next 14 days. The TFT model is hypertuned by Optuna to achieve an optimized structure (h-TFT). The h-TFT had a mean absolute percentage error of 13.1 and a Nash–Sutcliffe of 0.96, outperforming its initial version and even the bidirectional LSTM model in benchmarking. Based on the error results, h-TFT showed promise for flow forecasting and provides insights into decision-making processes in the Brazilian electricity sector. • Hypertuning the TFT improves its performance in median-term forecasting. • The h-TFT outperforms LSTM, and TCN models for time series forecasting. • Deep learning applied for scheduling operation of the electrical power system. • Energy planning based on the inflow forecasting of hydroelectric power plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environmental changes in the Caatinga biome have already resulted in it reaching levels of approximately 50% of its original vegetation, making it the third most degraded biome in Brazil, due to inadequate grazing practices that are driven by the difficulty of monitoring and estimating the yield parameters of forage plants, especially in agroforestry systems (AFS) in this biome. This study aimed to compare the predictive ability of different indexes with regard to the biomass and leaf area index of forage crops (bushveld signal grass and buffel grass) in AFS in the Caatinga biome and to evaluate the influence of removing system components on model performance. The normalized green red difference index (NGRDI) and the visible atmospherically resistant index (VARI) showed higher correlations (p < 0.05) with the variables. In addition, removing trees from the orthomosaics was the approach that most favored the correlation values. The models based on classification and regression trees (CARTs) showed lower RMSE values, presenting values of 3020.86, 1201.75, and 0.20 for FB, DB, and LAI, respectively, as well as higher CCC values (0.94). Using NGRDI and VARI, removing trees from the images, and using CART are recommended in estimating biomass and leaf area index in agroforestry systems in the Caatinga biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Forest fragments have suffered from the impacts of climate change, resulting in the increased production of coarse woody debris (CWD), which needs to be evaluated in space and time to generate accurate estimates of carbon accumulation. Thus, the goals of this study were (i) to quantify the CWD volume, necromass, carbon stock, and annual increment of carbon (AIcarb) over a period of 4 years; and (ii) to select the optimal combination of climatic, topographic, edaphic, and intrinsic forest variables to accurately predict AIcarb using machine learning and multivariate analysis. The CWD volume, necromass, and carbon stock increased between 2017 and 2020. The AIcarb was 1.09 MgC ha−1 year−1 (2017–2018), 1.24 MgC ha−1 year−1 (2018–2019), and 2.31 MgC ha−1 year−1 (2019–2020). Statistical analysis indicated that climate variables had greater weight in the CWD carbon increment in the 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 periods, while edaphic, topographical, and intrinsic forest variables were more important for the 2017–2018 period. Our findings showed that the carbon increase in CWD was linked to temporal and spatial variables within forests. These results demonstrate the importance of this parameter in the carbon cycle of forest ecosystems and highlight that there should be greater international research efforts to quantify this carbon pool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infection with ZIKV during pregnancy is associated with fetal developmental problems. Although neurological issues are being explored more in experimental studies, limited research has focused on the reproductive health consequences for offspring born to infected mothers. In this context, this study aimed to assess the impact of ZIKV infection during pregnancy on the testes and sperm of adult male offspring. Female mice were intraperitoneally inoculated with a Brazil strain of ZIKV during the 5.5th day of embryonic gestation. The offspring were evaluated 12 weeks after birth to analyze cellular and molecular changes in the testes and sperm. A novel approach combining variable-angle spectroscopic ellipsometry and machine learning modeling was also introduced for sperm sample analysis. The study revealed the presence of ZIKV protein in the testis parenchyma of adult male offspring born to infected mothers. It was shown that the testes exhibited altered steroidogenesis and inflammatory mediators, in addition to significant issues with spermiogenesis that resulted in sperm with DNA fragmentation, head defects, and protamination failure. Additionally, sperm dielectric properties and artificial intelligence showed potential for rapid identification and classification of sperm samples from infected mice. These findings provide crucial insights into the reproductive risks for men born from ZIKV-infected pregnant women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil is one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 16 million confirmedcases and 454,429 confirmed deaths by May 26, 2021 (according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center). Brazil was and still is one of the countries most impacted by the first wave of Covid-19 which first recorded case on 26th February 2020 and reached community transmission from 20th March 2019 onwards to dates, that caught Brazil unprepared and unable to response due to the strain on hospital capacity such as the intense and lengthy request for ICU (incentive care unit) beds, professionals, personal protection equipment and healthcare resources. A data science team at Sirio Libanês, a top-tier hospital in Brazil, decided to use ML to help reduce the strain on hospital's ICU beds where the objective is to develop a ML model to predict if a patient of confirmed COVID-19 case would require admission to the ICU. With that objective in mind, the team has collected a decent amount of clinical data from patients i.e. the features of COVID patients, and the target (those been admitted to ICU). The paper describes the complete Model design using features of contemporary Machine Learning Models to interpret the Collected Data from the hospital to produce a decent report as a solution to the above mentioned hindrances at crucial times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Chagas disease is a severe parasitic illness that is prevalent in Latin America and often goes unaddressed. Early detection and treatment are critical in preventing the progression of the illness and its associated life-threatening complications. In recent years, machine learning algorithms have emerged as powerful tools for disease prediction and diagnosis. Methods: In this study, we developed machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of Chagas disease based on five general factors: age, gender, history of living in a mud or wooden house, history of being bitten by a triatomine bug, and family history of Chagas disease. We analyzed data from the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study (REDS) to train five popular machine learning algorithms. The sample comprised 2,006 patients, divided into 75% for training and 25% for testing algorithm performance. We evaluated the model performance using precision, recall, and AUC-ROC metrics. Results: The Adaboost algorithm yielded an AUC-ROC of 0.772, a precision of 0.199, and a recall of 0.612. We simulated the decision boundary using various thresholds and observed that in this dataset a threshold of 0.45 resulted in a 100% recall. This finding suggests that employing such a threshold could potentially save 22.5% of the cost associated with mass testing of Chagas disease. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the potential of applying machine learning to improve the sensitivity and effectiveness of Chagas disease diagnosis and prevention. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of integrating socio-demographic and environmental factors into neglected disease prediction models to enhance their performance. Author summary: Chagas disease, a severe parasitic illness prevalent in Latin America, poses significant challenges due to delayed detection and treatment. Machine learning algorithms, advanced computer programs, have emerged as valuable tools for disease prediction and diagnosis. In our study, we utilized these algorithms to forecast Chagas disease risk based on factors such as age, gender, and living conditions. Drawing on data from the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study (REDS), we trained five algorithms, with one showing promising results, achieving an impressive score of 0.772 out of 1. By establishing a specific threshold, we could potentially reduce testing costs while maintaining high detection rates. This research highlights the potential of machine learning in improving Chagas disease diagnosis and prevention by incorporating socio-demographic and environmental factors. Integrating these elements into predictive models has the potential to enhance their effectiveness and sensitivity, thereby improving disease management outcomes and ultimately reducing the burden of Chagas disease in affected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sugar is an important commodity that is used beyond the food industry. It can be produced from sugarcane and sugar beet, depending on the region. Prices worldwide differ due to high volatility, making it difficult to estimate their forecast. Thus, the present work aims to predict the prices of kilograms of sugar from four databases: the European Union, the United States, Brazil, and the world. To achieve this, linear methods from the Box and Jenkins family were employed, together with classic and new approaches of artificial neural networks: the feedforward Multilayer Perceptron and extreme learning machines, and the recurrent proposals Elman Network, Jordan Network, and Echo State Networks considering two reservoir designs. As performance metrics, the MAE and MSE were addressed. The results indicated that the neural models were more accurate than linear ones. In addition, the MLP and the Elman networks stood out as the winners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the historical uses and types of artificial intelligence (AI) systems and resources in Brazilian journalistic products. It is a work anchored in critically analyzing the literature on the subject, mapping and observing cases, seeking to identify uses and innovative processes, and analyzing AI projects for journalism. A search was carried out in web repositories, specifically Google, Google Scholar, and Scopus, using the terms: "inteligência artificial" + "jornalismo", "bot + jornalismo", "Geração de linguagem natural [NLG] + jornalismo", "aprendizado de máquina [machine learning] + jornalismo", and "algoritmos + jornalismo". The corpus analysis (N = 45) includes the evaluation of the impacts of AI on the production and distribution of news in the context of Brazilian digital journalism. We try to answer questions about the uses of databases, approximation with platforms, uses of shared codes, connections with other Ais, and sources of funding, and whether they are backend or frontend initiatives. In a parallel investigation, we try to identify if Brazilian newsrooms are officially using ChatGPT, a generative AI. The findings point to advances in using low-cost and low-impact AI, with the predominance of bots. The great availability of this kind of AI in web repositories is believed to facilitate native digital media to incorporate innovative processes in using these technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streamflow forecasting plays a crucial role in the operational planning of hydro-dominant power systems, providing valuable insights into future water inflows to reservoirs and hydropower plants. It relies on complex mathematical models, which, despite their sophistication, face various uncertainties affecting their performance. These uncertainties can significantly influence both short-term and long-term operational planning in hydropower systems. To mitigate these effects, this study introduces a novel Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework to improve the accuracy of streamflow forecasts in real hydro-dominant power systems. Designed to serve as an operational tool, the proposed framework incorporates predictive uncertainty into the forecasting process, enhancing the robustness and reliability of predictions. BMA statistically combines multiple models based on their posterior probability distributions, producing forecasts from the weighted averages of predictions. This approach updates weights periodically using recent historical data of forecasted and measured streamflows. Tested on inflows to 139 reservoirs and hydropower plants in Brazil, the proposed BMA framework proved to be more skillful than individual models, showing improvements in forecasting accuracy, especially in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. This method offers a more reliable tool for streamflow prediction, enhancing decision making in hydropower system operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue fever, a prevalent and rapidly spreading arboviral disease, poses substantial public health and economic challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Predicting infectious disease outbreaks on a countrywide scale is complex due to spatiotemporal variations in dengue incidence across administrative areas. To address this, we propose a machine learning ensemble model for forecasting the dengue incidence rate (DIR) in Brazil, with a focus on the population under 19 years old. The model integrates spatial and temporal information, providing one-month-ahead DIR estimates at the state level. Comparative analyses with a dummy model and ablation studies demonstrate the ensemble model's qualitative and quantitative efficacy across the 27 Brazilian Federal Units. Furthermore, we showcase the transferability of this approach to Peru, another Latin American country with differing epidemiological characteristics. This timely forecast system can aid local governments in implementing targeted control measures. The study advances climate services for health by identifying factors triggering dengue outbreaks in Brazil and Peru, emphasizing collaborative efforts with intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions. The innovation lies not only in the algorithms themselves but in their application to a domain marked by data scarcity and operational scalability challenges. We bridge the gap by integrating well-curated ground data with advanced analytical methods, addressing a significant deficiency in current practices. The successful transfer of the model to Peru and its consistent performance during the 2019 outbreak in Brazil showcase its scalability and practical application. While acknowledging limitations in handling extreme values, especially in regions with low DIR, our approach excels where accurate predictions are critical. The study not only contributes to advancing DIR forecasting but also represents a paradigm shift in integrating advanced analytics into public health operational frameworks. This work, driven by a collaborative spirit involving intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions, sets a precedent for interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing global health challenges. It not only enhances our understanding of factors triggering dengue outbreaks but also serves as a template for the effective implementation of advanced analytical methods in public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global environmental impacts such as climate change require behavior from society that aims to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. This includes the substitution of fossil fuels with other energy sources. An important aspect of efficient and sustainable management of the electricity supply in Brazil is the prediction of some variables of the national electric system (NES), such as the price of differences settlement (PLD) and wind speed for wind energy. In this context, the present study investigated two distinct forecasting approaches. The first involved the combination of deep artificial neural network techniques, long short-term memory (LSTM), and multilayer perceptron (MLP), optimized through the canonical genetic algorithm (GA). The second approach focused on machine committees including MLP, decision tree, linear regression, and support vector machine (SVM) in one committee, and MLP, LSTM, SVM, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in another. The results indicate that the hybrid AG + LSTM algorithm demonstrated the best performance for PLD, with a mean squared error (MSE) of 4.68. For wind speed, there is a MSE of 1.26. These solutions aim to contribute to the Brazilian electricity market's decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To identify and describe the profile of potential transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CM) cases in the Brazilian public health system (SUS), using a predictive machine learning (ML) model. Methods: This was a retrospective descriptive database study that aimed to estimate the frequency of potential ATTR-CM cases in the Brazilian public health system using a supervised ML model, from January 2015 to December 2021. To build the model, a list of ICD-10 codes and procedures potentially related with ATTR-CM was created based on literature review and validated by experts. Results: From 2015 to 2021, the ML model classified 262 hereditary ATTR-CM (hATTR-CM) and 1,581 wild-type ATTR-CM (wtATTR-CM) potential cases. Overall, the median age of hATTR-CM and wtATTR-CM patients was 66.8 and 59.9 years, respectively. The ICD-10 codes most presented as hATTR-CM and wtATTR-CM were related to heart failure and arrythmias. Regarding the therapeutic itinerary, 13% and 5% of hATTR-CM and wtATTR-CM received treatment with tafamidis meglumine, respectively, while 0% and 29% of hATTR-CM and wtATTR-CM were referred to heart transplant. Conclusion: Our findings may be useful to support the development of health guidelines and policies to improve diagnosis, treatment, and to cover unmet medical needs of patients with ATTR-CM in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this work is to classify pepper seeds using color filter array (CFA) images. This study focused specifically on Penja pepper, which is found in the Litoral region of Cameroon and is a type of Piper nigrum. India and Brazil are the largest producers of this variety of pepper, although the production of Penja pepper is not as significant in terms of quantity compared to other major producers. However, it is still highly sought after and one of the most expensive types of pepper on the market. It can be difficult for humans to distinguish between different types of peppers based solely on the appearance of their seeds. To address this challenge, we collected 5618 samples of white and black Penja pepper and other varieties for classification using image processing and a supervised machine learning method. We extracted 18 attributes from the images and trained them in four different models. The most successful model was the support vector machine (SVM), which achieved an accuracy of 0.87, a precision of 0.874, a recall of 0.873, and an F1-score of 0.874. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Fraud in electrical energy consumption represents a critical economic burden for utility companies around the world. Despite systematic efforts to mitigate electricity theft, this practice persists mostly in developing countries where companies rely on traditional detection methods. In Brazil it is estimated that around 7% of the total electrical energy available for consumption in 2016 was lost due to frauds. Here we describe an efficient and scalable system to predict fraudulent behavior and guide in loco inspections. We compared the performances of several machine learning algorithms using consumption and inspection data provided by CPFL Energia. We show that proper feature engineering and boosted classification trees trained with XGBoost are able to extract patterns related to fraud occurrence and to achieve predictive power of practical consequences. Moreover, we demonstrate how Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values can be employed to build user friendly explanations. Together, the proposed model and its explainers contribute not only to reveal potentially fraudulent behavior but also to understand root causes, what can be used to devise robust mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources management in Latin America and the Caribbean is particularly threatened by climatic, economic, and political pressures. To assess the region's ability to manage water resources, we conducted an unprecedented literature review of over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the socio-hydrologic landscape. Results reveal that the region's vulnerability to water-related stresses, and drivers such as climate change, is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on an individual country (Brazil). A regional bright spot, Brazil, produces well-rounded water-related research, but its regional dominance suggests that funding cuts there would impede scientifically informed water management in the entire region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• IoT and machine learning promote soil moisture forecast for smart irrigation. • Our approach is fully data-driven and independent of domain-knowledge features. • Results come from twelve fields on four farms, from eight crop types in four years. • Boosting outperforms neural networks, and blended models improve performance. • Poor data quality is a challenge for machine learning soil moisture forecast. The rise of the Internet of Things allowed higher spatial–temporal resolution soil moisture data captured through in situ sensing. Such abundance of data enables machine learning-based soil moisture forecast as an alternative to traditional mechanistic approaches for irrigation water need estimation. This paper develops a guideline for soil moisture forecast modeling based on machine learning, tested in a real case analysis comprehending eight crop types in twelve fields from four farms distributed over diverse climatic scenarios in Brazil. Instead of a single value, we predict the following days' minimum and maximum values as targets to monitor risks of extreme soil moisture values. Furthermore, modeling soil moisture directly in volumetric water content (VWC) is better than modeling soil matric potential (SMP) to later convert in soil moisture VWC. We test several algorithms and find out that LightGBM outperforms linear regression, decision tree, random forest, multilayer perceptron, LSTM, and StemGNN. Also, blending predictions via algorithm ensemble provides an additional accuracy gain. For model training and accuracy measurement, we use weighted datasets to privilege rare but critical data points. We show that soil moisture forecast reaches its maximum performance considering only past soil moisture, a context-aware index, and a precipitation forecast. Finally, we demonstrate that traditional domain-knowledge features - such as evapotranspiration, crop phenology, and soil hydraulic behavior - are not relevant to improving SM forecast performance. Consequently, our paper suggests full data-driven approaches for irrigation water need estimation, observed some care regarding data quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

School dropout is a relevant socio-economic problem across the globe. Predictive models have been developed to determine the likelihood of students dropping out of their studies precociously to overcome such a problem. Academic systems, which gather data from many students, are potential sources for datasets that feed dropout prediction algorithms, thus leading to general improvements in education quality. Despite successful past attempts to predict dropout, several works depict small datasets with features that are hard to reproduce. Furthermore, predicting whether a student will drop out is not enough to diagnose and prevent the problem as it is also necessary to provide potential justifications for the dropout. This paper proposes an approach for creating and enriching a dataset for dropout prediction, which has been applied for dropout prediction using data from 19 schools in Brazil. With this dataset and using classifiers and model explaining techniques, our experiments achieved Area Under the Precision–Recall Curve (AUC-PR) scores of up to 89.5%, Precision up to 95%, Recall up to 93%, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) rates up to 97% when predicting dropout at different year moments. This study also shows differences when predicting dropouts in different educational stages, such as preschool and secondary education, with the former being more complex than the latter. In addition to the high recognition rates, our proposal identifies potential reasons for student dropout, which are relevant for educational institutions to take preemptive actions. • Dropout prediction is performed with educational, financial, and public data. • Dropout analysis is conducted in different educational stages and time of the year. • Explainable machine learning allows reasoning behind potential dropouts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report psychometric analyses of an adapted version of the measure of individualism-collectivism (IC) and its horizontal-vertical (HV) manifestations (Singelis et al., 1995) for Brazilian samples. We used a large sample (N = 1,669) split into an exploratory and two crossvalidation samples. Using confirmatory factor analysis and a new metaheuristic machine learning approach inspired by ant colony foraging, we found poor psychometric properties. We developed and compared three short scales, which showed poor reliability and poor factor structures. Considering widely used short scales of this measure, our results suggest that key items may be understood differently by Brazilians, and we urge caution in interpreting individualism-collectivism scores with Brazilian samples. We discuss issues for further developing cultural orientation scales to measure individual differences and the utility of an advancedmetaheuristic data-driven approach for psychometric research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frosts are one of the atmospheric phenomena with one of the larger negative effects on the agricultural sector in the southern region of Brazil, therefore, an earlier forecast can minimize their impacts. In the present work, artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques were applied in order to improve the predicting capabilities of frost events in southern Brazil. In the study, two multilayer perceptron (MLP) ANNs were built, one with ADAM optimizer and the other with SGD. The input parameters MLP-ANNs were numerical predictions of the Eta model. The ANNs were trained using four years (2012–2015), while validation and testing were performed using 2016 and 2017, respectively. An episode of frost that occurred on May 21st, 2018, related to an intense cold air mass, was also utilized to evaluate the performance of the ANNs. The best configurations (topologies and hyper-parameters) of the ANNs were identified through experiments, using the highest accuracy obtained during the validation period as a metric. The results of the ANNs with ADAM and SGD optimizers were compared with the predictions of the Eta model. For the case study, an additional comparison against the operational frost index (IG) from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) was also included. The performance of both ANNs (properly configured) with ADAM and SGD optimizers are comparable one to the other. And both are significantly better compared to the Eta model. The ANNs were able to drastically reduce the underestimation trends of frost events caused by the warm bias of the Eta model. The ANNs also indicated more satisfactory performances when compared to the INPE IG. In general, the ANNs were able to identify deficiencies in Eta predictions, and consequently improve their results. In this sense, the use of ANNs to predict frost events can be a very useful tool in an operational environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land-atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land-surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2-100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advent of smart grid technologies has facilitated the integration of new and intermittent renewable forms of electricity generation in power systems. Advancements are driving transformations in the context of energy planning and operations in many countries around the world, particularly impacting short-term horizons. Therefore, one of the primary challenges in this environment is to accurately provide forecasting of the short-term load demand. This is a critical task for creating supply strategies, system reliability decisions, and price formation in electricity power markets. In this context, nonlinear models, such as Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines, have gained popularity over the years due to advancements in mathematical techniques as well as improved computational capacity. The academic literature highlights various approaches to improve the accuracy of these machine learning models, including data segmentation by similar patterns, input variable selection, forecasting from hierarchical data, and net load forecasts. In Brazil, the national independent system operator improved the operation planning in the short term through the DESSEM model, which uses short-term load forecast models for planning the day-ahead operation of the system. Consequently, this study provides a comprehensive review of various methods used for short-term load forecasting, with a particular focus on those based on machine learning strategies, and discusses the Brazilian Experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]