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The establishment, development and abandonment and/or destruction of ancient civilizations were catalytically controlled by geomorphic features such as lakes and rivers and the climate. This paper examined the possible influence of tectonism and climate on six habitations of the ancient Vaigai River Basin civilization in South India, using multiple proxies such as grain size, geochronology and geochemistry of the sedimentary archives. The tectonic setting of the basin changed between the active margin and passive margin; the discriminant diagrams suggested varying provenance and changing climatic conditions over the mid‐ and‐late Holocene. Tectonic activism and quiescence, base‐level change in the channel morphology led to the burial/marooning of the first habitation surface. Overall, arid conditions were punctuated with catastrophic flooding and peak discharge (flood) destroyed the second, third and fourth habitation sites. These flooding events were characterized by moderate weathering (CIA) and high values of Al, Fe and Rb/Sr and low Ca/Mg in the sediment records. The abandonment/destruction of the fifth habitation also occurred during an arid interval (droughts), possibly caused by weak monsoon. Along with the interactions between tectono‐climatic and fluvial geomorphic factors, the new results provided avenues to (a) check and recognize the archives for 8.2 and 4.2 ka‐like events in this part of the world, and (b) the utility of integrated analyses to constrain on the civilizational histories of the mankind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Occurrences of extreme events, especially floods, have become more frequent and severe in the recent past due to the global impacts of climate change. In this context, possibilities for generating a near‐accurate streamflow forecast at higher lead times, which could be utilized for developing a reliable flood warning system to minimize the effects of extreme events, are highly important. This paper aims to investigate the potential of a novel hybrid modeling framework that couples the random forest algorithm, particle filter, and the HBV model for improving the overall accuracy of forecasts at higher lead times through the dynamic error correction schematic. The new framework simulates an ensemble of streamflow for estimating uncertainty associated with the predictions and is applied across two snow‐fed Himalayan rivers: the Beas River in India and the Sunkoshi River in Nepal. Several statistical indices along with graphical performance indicators were used for assessing the accuracy of the model performance and associated uncertainty. The modeling framework achieved the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.94 and 0.98 in calibration and 0.95 and 0.99 in validation for the Beas and Sunkoshi river basin respectively for a 7‐day ahead forecast. Thus, the proposed framework can be considered as a promising tool having reasonably good performance in forecasting streamflow at a higher lead time. Key Points: Hybrid hydrological model integrates process‐based model with machine learning algorithm through data assimilation techniqueDynamic error correction framework capable of improving the streamflow forecast at longer lead time is proposedOverall the developed framework improves the forecast accuracy along with quantifying the model prediction uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among several devastating natural hazards, flooding is a common and serious threat to society causing huge loss of lives, properties, and infrastructure throughout the world. The intensity and frequency of this extreme weather event are expected to increase due to significant changes in the present‐day climate and land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. India has a very systematic and organized structural program and policies but lacks proper implementations, and adverse effect of climate change and the extreme event goes on in society. This paper is an analysis of floods in India and hazards due to climate change and LULC change patterns. Three models, namely "Eco‐biogeography‐based optimization (EBO), Random forest (RF), and Support vector machine (SVM)" were used to obtain the final output to prepare a "Flood susceptibility map". The result was validated through the "Receiver operating characteristics (ROC)" with "Area under curve (AUC)" values. The future rainfall scenario has been estimated by considering the "General circulation models" through different "shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)". The values of AUC are 0.915 (EBO), 0.887 (RF), and 0.869 (SVM), respectively. After consideration of different SSPs, the result shows that there is an increasing tendency of flood hazards in the projected period. Among all the employed modelling approaches, the EBO model has notable potential in delineating the possible flood‐prone regions for effective flood planning and management. Decision‐makers can benefit from country‐specific information and regional planner to implement sustainable and long‐term measures to overcome this type of hazardous situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uttar Pradesh, with a population of 237 million, is the largest agrarian state in India, located in the Indo‐Gangetic plains. Rice cultivation is widespread across all districts of Uttar Pradesh, which have varying climate regimes, irrigation infrastructures, crop management practices, and farm sizes. The state is characterized by different agroecological zones (AEZs) with semi‐arid to sub‐humid climates with significant variability in monsoon rainfall. In this study, the impact of climate change on Kharif‐season rice is estimated using crop‐climate scenarios in Uttar Pradesh. A process‐based Crop Simulation Model, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis‐Rice, was simulated with bias‐corrected and downscaled climate data for historical (1995–2014) and three future periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) for two mitigation pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Phenology, irrigation amount, crop evapotranspiration, yield, and water use efficiency were evaluated and assessed for all AEZs. Based on the ensemble of 16 climate models, rainfed rice yield increased in the AEZs of western Uttar Pradesh due to increased rainfall, while in eastern Uttar Pradesh yield decreased, under both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Irrigated rice yield decreased in all AEZs under both SSPs due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in the length of the growing period, with reductions of up to 20% by the 2090s. Irrigation requirements decreased from the 2030s to the 2090s due to increased rainfall and decreased crop evapotranspiration. Despite the projected increase in rainfed yield, the overall rice yield is expected to decrease in the future under both SSPs. Plain Language Summary: Uttar Pradesh is the most populated state in India, with most of the population working in the agriculture sector and having a low income. The state's vulnerability to climate change is high due to inadequate infrastructure and heavy dependence on agriculture. Rice is a crucial crop for the state, but this study shows that climate change will decrease rice yields in the future, especially for irrigated rice, due to higher temperatures and shorter growing seasons. While rainfed rice yields may increase in some regions due to increased rainfall, rice production is expected to decline overall. Key Points: Rice yield (combining irrigated and rainfed) in Uttar Pradesh, India, is projected to decrease in the future for SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5With a projected increase in rainfall, rainfed rice yield increases in rainfall deficit zones, and irrigation decreases under both shared socioeconomic pathwaysPlanting in the early season could reduce the amount of yield loss for irrigated rice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to the "wet gets wetter and dry gets drier" paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi‐arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub‐seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people in the region. Plain Language Summary: An apparent eastward shift of the Indian monsoon has led to the arid conditions in the west and north‐west regions of India where monsoon was once active, and the Indus Valley civilizations thrived (5,300–3,300‐year BP). A reversal of the process and a westward expansion of the present‐day Indian monsoon would transform the west and north‐west India to a humid "monsoonal" climate and provide food security to the expanding population of the country. The present study shows that the Indian monsoon is indeed expanding to the west with 10% decrease of mean rainfall in the northeast and 25% increase in the west and north‐west during the historical period with a potential of 50%–100% increase in the north‐west under SSP2–4.5. Harvesting the increased rainfall has the potential for significant increase in food productivity bringing in transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people of the region. Key Points: Global warming could potentially cause a westward expansion of the Indian monsoonRainfall in northwest India and Pakistan has increased and will continue to rise due to greenhouse gasesIncreased monsoon rainfall can improve food productivity and socio‐economic conditions in the region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat fragmentation and isolation threaten the survival of several wide‐ranging species, such as tigers, through increased risk from diseases, disasters, climate change, and genetic depression. Identification of the habitat most likely to achieve connectivity among protected areas is vital for the long‐term persistence of tigers. We aimed to improve the mapping of potential transfrontier protected area corridors for tigers by connecting sites within the Terai Arc Landscape in Nepal and to those in India, highlighting targeted conservation actions needed along these corridors to maintain long‐term connectivity. We used least‐cost corridor modeling and circuit theory to identify potential corridors and bottlenecks in the study area. The landscape's resistance to tigers' movement was gathered from expert opinions to inform corridor modeling. We identified nine potential tiger corridors in the Terai Arc Landscape—Nepal that aligned strongly with the remaining intact habitats of the Siwalik landscape, which could facilitate tiger movement. Banke‐Bardia and Chitwan‐Parsa‐Valimiki complexes and Lagga‐Bhagga and Khata corridors were identified as high‐priority conservation cores and corridors. While our model exhibited congruence with most established corridors in the landscape, it has identified the need to enhance existing corridors to improve landscape connectivity. Several pinch points posing an increased risk to connectivity were identified. Most of these were located near the protected area boundaries and along the Nepal–India border. The Siwalik landscape holds the key to long‐term connectivity in the study area; however, immediate conservation attention is needed, particularly at pinch points, to secure this connectivity for tigers. Validation of identified corridors through empirical research and their conservation is a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geochemical study in the siliciclastic sediments of a basin provides an understanding of palaeoclimate, provenance and subsequently, it can be used to reconstruct the palaeo‐tectonics and evolution of the basin. Sedimentation in the Gondwana basins, worldwide, generally provides a record of climatic fluctuations and evidences of the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction. In spite of its global importance, our knowledge about the nature of sedimentation, basin development and conceptual regional tectonic model in the Satpura Basin, one of the Gondwana basins of India is limited. Major and trace element concentrations of the mudstones from the Denwa Formation along with the existing geochemical data of other formations are studied here for establishing a comprehensive idea about the palaeoclimate, tectonic settings, provenance and basin evolution. The composition of the sediments in the lowermost Talchir Formation revealed cold and dry climatic conditions at the sources, whereas the sources of the sediments for the overlying formations have experienced warm, humid and semiarid climates. The contributions of the mafic rock‐derived sediments are relatively higher in the Talchir, Barakar and Motur formations compared to the overlying formations. Approximately 60% of the sediments in the overlying Bijori, Pachmarhi and Denwa formations were derived from the felsic volcanic rocks and granites of the Sausar Mobile Belt and Betul‐Chindwara Mobile Belt (BCMB) with minor inputs from mafic volcanic rocks of the BCMB. Furthermore, the sediments of the Talchir Formation were derived from the BCMB when they became tectonically active, whereas the sediments in the younger formations have been derived from a passive tectonic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The signal of temperature change has emerged from background variations in most tropical regions in boreal summer over decadal‐centennial timescales but not in northern‐central India (NCI). In this study, we investigated the reason for the limited temperature change in NCI. We found that internal variability, largely caused by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on a ∼20‐year timescale, has the potential to mask the temperature change signal. Besides, local response to external forcing, linked to non‐greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, strongly overrides GHG warming in NCI, which results in little trend in the temporal evolution of external variability. The internal variability related to IPO and the limited warming arising from the competition between multiple forcings result in the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio and thus, the temperature change signal fails to emerge from the background variations. Plain Language Summary: Earth's surface has warmed considerably since 1850s, which can be largely attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. When human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) cause the local temperature change to exceed the inherent variation of the climate system, the region will face more extreme climate events. Although temperature has experienced warming almost all around the globe, here we show that surface air temperature in boreal summer in northern‐central India has not gone through significant changes. The timing of transition is important for policymakers. Thus, we analyzed the reasons for this and show that it reflects the combined effects of natural processes and local anthropogenic forcings. Key Points: The external forcing exhibits a cooling trend in northern‐central India (NCI), whereas most global regions have warmed considerablyCooling effects of non‐greenhouse gas forcings that override global warming lead to a cooling trend in NCIThe internal variability related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the limited warming cause the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is happening, and we have been forewarned of the consequences. Since it is caused largely by human action, a lot can be done to avert the detrimental consequences. But getting political support for action is difficult because the hardest‐hit people are marginalized groups that have little political power, including indigenous communities. Greta Thunberg and groups that agree with her view are emerging worldwide to promote action; nevertheless, the magnitude of public response and action is inadequate. This article highlights the adversities caused by the climate emergency in India and the efforts of indigenous communities to take effective action. In its conclusion, this article makes suggestions about ways to respond appropriately to the climate emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's per capita contribution of carbon emissions is well below the world average, yet it suffers disproportionately from rising temperatures. Thus, many Indians share the sense of urgency that Greta Thunberg exhibits when she demands that nations make stronger commitments to limit carbon emissions. India's monsoon‐dependent agriculture is highly vulnerable to any change in weather patterns, but the land irrigated by groundwater is also threatened. The projected rise in annual peak temperatures, similar to those now experienced only in the earth's hottest micro‐climates, could make it nearly impossible for humans to engage in agriculture in India and several other parts of the world. Climate change affects yields of crops, livestock, dairy, and fisheries. Rising temperatures, increased frequency of flooding, and other hazards associated with climate change will reduce food production. Even a slight drop in food output can have a dramatic effect on food prices, both locally and globally. Rice farming, particularly in the rain‐fed regions, faces multiple risks from uncertain climate, degraded soil, water deficits, and underdeveloped markets. Loss of biodiversity is also a threat to agriculture in India, and it is also affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basin-scale streamflow is influenced by numerous local and global climate inputs. In this paper, genetic programming (GP) is combined with "importance analysis" to identify the important global climate inputs and local meteorological variables needed for prediction of weekly streamflow at the basin scale. The analysis is carried out for the Mahanadi River in India using global climate inputs, namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) index; local meteorological inputs, including outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), total precipitable water (TPW), temperature anomaly (TA), and pressure anomaly (PA); and streamflow information from previous time steps. The rainfall information over the basin is intentionally not utilized so that the procedure may be applicable to basins with little or no rain gauge information and to achieve a longer prediction lead time. The Birnbaum importance measure is used to assess the importance of each input. Results of this study show that the relative importance of individual input variables is influenced by time lags. It is observed that among various local meteorological inputs, OLR and PA are more important than TA and TPW. Among large-scale circulation indices, ENSO index is important for previous 5th to 7th week, whereas EQUINOO index is important for previous 3rd to 6th week. On the basis of their importance measures, 15 indices were selected from the initial group of 30 indices. The GP-derived streamflow forecasting models could predict weekly streamflow with good accuracy (correlation coefficient r = 0.821) for such a complex system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A realistic evaluation of drought onset is inevitable for the effective implementation of mitigation strategies. Meteorological droughts indicating the onset of drought propagation are usually quantified through unbiased indices that consider the month‐wise magnitude variations in historical climatic variables, while completely ignoring their intramonthly distributions. However, the applicability of such indices under the present scenario of changing climate, where intense short wet spells are reportedly increasing, is questionable. Such changes in the wet spells could eventually lead to prolonged intramonthly dry spells, which in turn will pose many agricultural and socioeconomic risks. To monitor the changed scenario realistically, we propose a new drought index—the Standardized Net‐Precipitation Distribution Index (SNEPI), which incorporates the distribution characteristics of the daily net‐precipitation variable. The applicability of SNEPI is critically evaluated using synthetically generated and observed precipitation series over six diverse climatic locations of India, at 1‐, 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month time scales. The utility of SNEPI is more profound for longer time scales, understandably due to the enhanced emphasis imparted on the distribution of rainfall spells by the longer periods. Standardized Net‐Precipitation Distribution Index proves to be efficient in capturing the present scenario of increasing dryness (wetness) in wet (dry) regions when compared with the traditional Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Hence, the proposed index, which incorporates the changing precipitation characteristics, may aid in better quantification and monitoring of meteorological drought under the scenario of changing climate. Key Points: Revisited the concept of drought indices by accounting the precipitation characteristics such as intensity, frequency, and uniformityProposed index shows profound influence for longer time scales, implying possible utility in drought propagation to hydrological levelsProposed index may prove beneficial under the present scenario of abruptly changing climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleocene lavas of the Dianzhong Formation preserved in the Linzhou Basin of South Tibet provide a unique opportunity to constrain the initial geometry of the India‐Asia collision; however, earlier studies argued a complex magnetic signature resulting from thermal and/or chemical remagnetizations. To better characterize the remanences obtained from the Dianzhong lavas, we carried out an intraformational conglomerate test on a previously‐studied section in the Linzhou Basin. The positive conglomerate test suggests that the characteristic remanences reported from the Dianzhong Formation are primary. The updated Paleocene pole confirms a paleolatitude of 6.7° ± 4.4°N for the Lhasa terrane and positions the southern margin of Asia in the equatorial humid belt. An initial collision, between India, Asia and an intra‐oceanic arc in the equatorial humid belt, may have intensified silicate weathering and resulted in an extra consummation of carbon dioxide, which contributes to a long‐term cooling of the Earth during the Cenozoic. Plain Language Summary: The locus of the initial India‐Asia collision can be constrained using paleomagnetic studies on the Paleocene volcanics from the Linzhou Basin, South Tibet. However, the primary nature of the magnetic signature previously reported from the Dianzhong Formation was questioned. This study carries out an intraformational conglomerate test collected from the middle part of the Dianzhong Formation. The stable remanences isolated from a layer of intercalated lava cobbles yield a random distribution in contrast to the well‐grouped directions obtained from the over‐ and underlying lava layers resulting in a positive conglomerate test. We therefore argue for a primary nature for the characteristic remanence recorded by the Dianzhong lavas from the Linzhou Basin. Our study confirms a low latitude of ∼7°N, that is, within the equatorial humid belt, for the southern margin of Asia during ∼64–60 Ma. An initial low‐latitude collision between India and Asia is critical for understanding the tectonic and climatic significance of the India‐Asia collision. Key Points: Characteristic remanences reported from the Dianzhong lavas in the Linzhou Basin are primary in originThe updated Paleocene pole confirms a low latitude of ∼7°N for the Lhasa terraneAn initial collision between India, Asia and an oceanic arc in the equatorial humid belt may contribute to the Cenozoic cooling of the Earth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) The environment, structure and floristics of four evergreen rainforest sites at 575–800 m altitude in Karnataka, southern India, are described. (2) The mean annual rainfall on the four sites ranges from 5310 to 7670 mm. Most of the rainfall occurs from June to September and there is an intense dry period from December to April. All the sites occur on oxisols overlying hornblendic rocks. (3) The forests at three of the sites are species rich with an important contribution from the Dipterocarpaceae but one site is unusual and has an almost monospecific dominance by Poeciloneuron indicum (Guttiferae). (4) The total aboveground tree biomass was 420–649 t ha-1. The root fraction was 13.9–20.2 t ha-1. (5) Girth increment data over 35 years were available for one site and these were used with biomass estimates to calculate the approximate mean annual increase of above-ground and root (≥5 cm girth) biomass in the four sites. These were 6.4–11.1 t ha-1 for aboveground material and 0.2–0.4 t ha-1 for roots. (6) For small trees (≤5 cm dbh) and herbs, biomass was estimated by destructive sampling in one plot. The combined above ground biomass of these fractions was 7.2 t ha-1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in precipitation patterns as a result of increased atmospheric water vapour in a warming environment over the Indian region have been reported in the past few decades. However, these studies have not focused much on exploring the changes in atmospheric water vapour in a changing climate. The present study focuses on examining the variability of integrated precipitable water (IPW) over the Indian region derived from the Modern Era Retrospective‐Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA 2) model in a warming environment. The results suggest that the IPW has increased significantly in recent decades. Changes in the IPW are consistent with changes in regional warming over India. The results also point out an increase of about 4.98% ± 1.26% in the IPW for a 1°C increase in regional warming. The variability of IPW has been examined in a warming climate. An increase in regional temperature shows coherent variation with IPW. A decadal increase of about 1.69% has been reported in the IPW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evapotranspiration and water availability are driven by changing climate and land cover parameters. In the present study, climatological records and land cover data were analysed simultaneously to accomplish the spatial distributions of climate change effects on water resources in Varanasi district, north India. Humidity–aridity was assessed by Lang's rain factor and De Martonne's aridity index, based on mean monthly rainfall and air temperature from seven meteorological stations. The climate change effect on water resources was evaluated using a 5 × 5 matrix that includes water availability and the aridity index by considering two time periods: 1941–1970 (1950s) and 1971–2000 (1980s). The methodology is based on seasonal crop evapotranspiration (ETc) (initial, mid‐season, end season and cold season) and annual water availability calculations. The high values (≤ 1,045 mm) of ETc were identified during the mid‐season stage. Water availability indicates decreases in the maximums from 718 to 636 mm during the two analysed periods, with a negative impact at the spatial scale. Lang's rain factor (< 40) indicates an arid climate in the northwest, west, east and central parts of the district and a humid climate (Lang's rain factor > 40) in the south. De Martonne's aridity index indicates rapid aridization from south to north (28.3 in the 1950s and 25.6 in the 1980s). The high and very high climate effects on water resources in Varanasi district were found mainly in the crop lands, while in the urban areas the climate effect is low. The much affected area by climate change and land cover was depicted during the recent period (1980s). This statement was proved also by the Mann and Kendall test, which indicates a negative trend for annual precipitation at all stations (for the period 1941–2000), while the mean annual temperature had a positive trend for four stations. These findings suggest that climate change had a negative effect on water resources during the last 60 years in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and the rapid population growth have been seriously impacting water sources. The existing traditional water distribution network (WDN) fails to manage proper water distribution according to the consumption rate. The current situation demands an intelligent water management and treatment model to keep water available in the long run. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is a combination of the Internet of Things and information which introduces machine-to-machine communication with data for management. An ICT-based WDN which helps in monitoring excessive water supply and preventing water loss is proposed. The designed architecture is based on a heterogeneous wireless sensor network (WSN) and a smart tap which detects water loss and communicates the report to the utility centre. A fault-tolerant WSN routing scheme to handle the faulty situation during the transmission process is also proposed. The district of Sambalpur in Odisha, India is the chosen location for this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The nested pattern in the geographical distribution of three Indian owlets, resulting in a gradient of endemicity, is hypothesized to be an impact of historical climate change. In current time, the Forest Owlet Athene blewitti is endemic to central India, and its range is encompassed within the ranges of the Jungle Owlet Glaucidium radiatum (distributed through South Asia) and Spotted Owlet Athene brama (distributed through Iran, South and Southeast Asia). Another phylogenetically close species, Little Owl Athene noctua, which is largely Palearctic in distribution, is hypothesized to have undergone severe range reduction during the Last Glacial Maximum, showing a postglacial expansion. The present study tests hypotheses on the possible role of Quaternary climatic fluctuations in shaping geographical ranges of owlets. Methods: We used primary field observations, open access data, and climatic niche modeling to construct climatic niches of four owlets for four periods, the Last Interglacial (~120–140 Ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~22 Ka), Mid‐Holocene (~6 Ka), and Current (1960–1990). We performed climatic niche extent, breadth, and overlap analyses and tested if climatically suitable areas for owlets are nested in a relatively stable climate. Results: Climatically suitable areas for all owlets examined underwent cycles of expansion and reduction or a gradual expansion or reduction since the Last Interglacial. The Indian owlets show significant climatic niche overlap in the current period. Climatically suitable areas for Little Owl shifted southwards during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded northwards in the postglaciation period. For each owlet, the modeled climatic niches were nested in climatically stable areas. Main Conclusions: The study highlights the impact of Quaternary climate change in shaping the present distribution of owlets. This is relevant to the current scenario of climate change and global warming and can help inform conservation strategies, especially for the extremely range‐restricted Forest Owlet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: The northeast monsoon (NEM) over south India plays a vital role in producing light and moderate rainfall events during October through December. Excess NEM rainfall is mainly due to the intensified tropical cyclones and easterly waves from the Pacific east–west troughs over the Bay of Bengal. The main heat source and sink regions of this monsoon season are the western Pacific high and the Siberian high, respectively. Relative variations in the areal extent and intensity of these source and sink regions influence the NEM season by excess or deficient rainfall. Hence, the aim of the present study was to observe the impact of the Siberian high and the western Pacific high on the NEM rainfall in excess and deficient years. For this purpose, dynamic and thermodynamic parameters, the zonal and meridional winds, the velocity potential, the sea surface temperature and the relative humidity of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data were used for the period 1951–2014. Analysis of these variables revealed the importance of the source and sink regions for the enhancement/reduction of NEM rainfall during excess/deficient years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (RET) plays a critical role in irrigation planning and is needed for the determination of water demands of crops. Thus, in the present study, trends in RET were identified over Bikaner located in the Thar Desert (Rajasthan) in India using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. First, RET values were estimated through the Penman-Monteith method for different time scales using meteorological data for 39 years from 1967 to 2005. Second, the effect of significant lag-1 serial correlation was removed from the time series of RET by pre-whitening. Third, trends were investigated using the MK test. RET was found to decrease significantly at Bikaner during annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon time scales. On probing the causal meteorological parameters responsible for the observed RET trends in the Thar Desert, it was witnessed that wind speed dynamically influenced the observed RET changes at the annual time scale and all the four seasons over the Thar Desert. The maximum temperature, followed by relative humidity, influenced the RET trends at annual and seasonal (winter, pre-monsoon and monsoon) time scales. The calm atmosphere witnessed over this arid site substantiates RET decreases over this Thar Desert site. The results of this study support that the evapotranspiration decreases over Bikaner are controlled mainly by trends in the aerodynamic component, i.e. by the effects of significant wind speed decreases on RET, than the changes in the radiative component over the arid site located in the Thar Desert. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present investigation, an age model of carbonate-rich cores from a seamount top in the Central Indian Basin ( CIB) was constructed using both isotopic (230 Thexcess, AMS 14 C, oxygen isotopes) and biostratigraphic methods. The chronologies using the two methods are in good agreement, yielding a record of the late Middle Pleistocene to the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (550 to 11.5 ka). The first appearance datum ( FAD) of the radiolarian Buccinosphaera invaginata (180 ka) and coccolith Emiliania huxleyi (268 ka) and the last appearance datum ( LAD) of the radiolarian Stylatractus universus (425 ka) were used. A monsoon-induced productivity increase was inferred from carbonate, organic carbon and δ13C records in response to the Mid- Brunhes Climatic Shift ( MBCS), consistent with an increased global productivity. While the coccolith diversity increased, a decrease in coccolith productivity was found during the MBCS. At nearly the same time period, earlier records from the equatorial Indian Ocean, western Indian Ocean and eastern Africa have shown an increased productivity in response to the influence of westerlies and increased monsoon. The influence of easterlies from Australia and the intensification of aridity are evidenced by increased kaolinite content and clay-sized sediments in response to the MBCS. An increased abundance of Globorotalia menardii and other resistant species beginning from marine isotope stage ( MIS) 11 and the proliferation of coccolith Gephyrocapsa spp. indicate increased dissolution, which is consistent with the widespread global carbonate dissolution during this period. The relatively high carbonate dissolution during the transition period of MIS 3/2 and glacial to interglacial periods ( MIS 6, 7 and 8) may be due to the enhanced flow of corrosive Antarctic Bottom Water ( AABW) into the CIB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grid (1° latitude × 1° longitude) level daily rainfall data over India from June to September for the years 1951-2007, generated by the India Meteorological Department, were analysed to build monthly time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis of SPI was done to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought occurrence in the country. Geographic spread of SPI-derived Area under Dryness (AUD) in different years revealed the uniqueness of the 2002 drought, with widespread dryness in July. Mann-Kendall trend analysis and moving average based trends performed on the AUD indicated an increasing trend in July. The area under moderate drought frequency has increased in the most recent decade. Ranking of years based on Drought Persistency Score (DPS) indicated that 1987 was the most severe drought year in the country. The results of the study have revealed various aspects of drought climatology in India. A similar analysis with the SPI of finer spatial resolution and relating it to crop production would be useful in quantifying the impact of drought in economic terms. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on analyses and validation of 1 month forecasts (OMFs) of weak Indian monsoons based on 10 member ensemble hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) model for the period 1981-2008. The weak monsoon episodes chosen for the analysis correspond to summer monsoon months which were characterized by significant deficits in the All-India monthly rainfall of − 20% of the climatological normal. Examination of the CFS-OMFs shows poor skill of the model in capturing the observed rainfall and circulation anomalies during weak monsoons. The present analysis suggests that deficiencies in realistically capturing the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) introduces biases in simulating sea surface temperature and rainfall anomalies in the equatorial region, which in turn affects the monsoon precipitation forecasts over the sub-continent. In particular, the mean thermocline in the near-equatorial IO is found to be practically flat in the CFS model, so that the near-equatorial anomalies in the model are not strong enough to weaken the summer monsoon circulation and reduce the monsoon precipitation over India. By examining a 100 year free run of the CFS model, it is seen that moderate monsoon-droughts simulated by the model have weak teleconnections with the equatorial IO dynamics. On the other hand, intense monsoon-droughts in the CFS-model are found be remarkably linked with the equatorial IO anomalies. It is suggested that improving the slope of the equatorial IO thermocline and allowing for more realistic IO-monsoon coupling in the CFS-model would be an important step for improving the skill of extended-range monsoon forecasts. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Parrots are thought to have originated on Gondwana during the Cretaceous. The initial split within crown group parrots separated the New Zealand taxa from the remaining extant species and was considered to coincide with the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana 82-85 Ma, assuming that the diversification of parrots was mainly shaped by vicariance. However, the distribution patterns of several extant parrot groups cannot be explained without invoking transoceanic dispersal, challenging this assumption. Here, we present a temporal and spatial framework for the diversification of parrots using external avian fossils as calibration points in order to evaluate the relative importance of the influences of past climate change, plate tectonics and ecological opportunity. Location Australasian, African, Indo-Malayan and Neotropical regions. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were investigated using partial sequences of the nuclear genes c-mos, RAG-1 and Zenk of 75 parrot and 21 other avian taxa. Divergence dates and confidence intervals were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. Biogeographic patterns were evaluated taking temporal connectivity between areas into account. We tested whether diversification remained constant over time and if some parrot groups were more species-rich than expected given their age. Results Crown group diversification of parrots started only about 58 Ma, in the Palaeogene, significantly later than previously thought. The Australasian lories and possibly also the Neotropical Arini were found to be unexpectedly species-rich. Diversification rates probably increased around the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene, during two periods of major global climatic aberrations characterized by global cooling. Main conclusions The diversification of parrots was shaped by climatic and geological events as well as by key innovations. Initial vicariance events caused by continental break-up were followed by transoceanic dispersal and local radiations. Habitat shifts caused by climate change and mountain orogenesis may have acted as a catalyst to the diversification by providing new ecological opportunities and challenges as well as by causing isolation as a result of habitat fragmentation. The lories constitute the only highly nectarivorous parrot clade, and their diet shift, associated with morphological innovation, may have acted as an evolutionary key innovation, allowing them to explore underutilized niches and promoting their diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]