282 results
Search Results
2. VISUALIZING OPPORTUNITIES.
- Author
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MCNEES, MARISSA
- Subjects
PAPER recycling ,PLASTIC scrap recycling ,FOOD waste recycling ,BUSINESS cycles ,RESOURCE recovery facilities ,RECYCLED paper ,WAREHOUSES - Published
- 2024
3. Guest editorial: A note on the productivity, growth and development: India and beyond.
- Author
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Maiti, Dibyendu and Goldar, Bishwanath
- Subjects
CONSOLIDATED financial statements ,BUSINESS cycles ,DEVELOPING countries ,BANKING industry ,GENERALIZED method of moments ,LABOR productivity ,INDUSTRIAL productivity - Abstract
This article discusses the factors that contribute to productivity, growth, and development in India and beyond. It highlights the importance of innovation behavior, productivity and efficiency of the MSME sector, firm exit decisions, low labor productivity, non-performing financial sector assets, cross-border mergers, and the creation of decent employment. The article also emphasizes the role of productivity growth in accelerating economic growth and improving people's welfare. It examines specific issues such as firms' performance and innovation, technical efficiency of banks, characteristics of innovative firms, financial accessibility for MSMEs, firm exit in manufacturing industries, the impact of cross-border mergers on innovation efforts, and productivity disparities across Indian states. [Extracted from the article]
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- 2024
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4. LAND SUPPLY MARKETIZATION, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS AND WELFARE: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CHINA.
- Author
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HE, Yiyao, WU, Mengyuan, and JIANG, Haiwei
- Subjects
RESIDENTIAL real estate ,REAL property ,BUSINESS cycles ,PUBLIC welfare - Abstract
Land supply in China is planned by governments, and the supply ratios of various types of land are in relatively rigid administrative control. This paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between land supply marketization in China and economic fluctuations. Moreover, this paper evaluates the social welfare gains from land marketization. We document that the government's land planning constraint impacts consumption and social welfare through the land price and final output, causing resource misallocation losses in aggregate investment and output. Quantitatively, the optimal upper limit of industrial land supply is about 40% to achieve the maximum social welfare. This paper stresses the necessity of revitalizing China's land market, and simultaneously speeding up the marketization of collectively operated construction land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
- Full Text
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5. To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019).
- Author
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Findlay, David W.
- Subjects
GROSS domestic product ,BUSINESS cycles ,GREAT Recession, 2008-2013 ,ECONOMIC activity ,PRODUCT returns - Abstract
In a 2019 article published in this journal, Kyer and Maggs examined the frequency and characteristics of double-dip recessions and multi-dip recessions for 21 countries during the 1960:1 to 2014:4 period. A review of Kyer and Maggs generated a number of questions about a particular feature of their business cycle dating methodology. Specifically, they determined that a recession ends once real gross domestic product returns to or exceeds the previous peak level of real gross domestic product. To demonstrate the impact this nontraditional feature of their methodology has on their results and conclusions, this paper repeats their analysis where, in contrast to Kyer and Maggs, it is assumed that a recession ends once the economy reaches the trough quarter in a business cycle. The application of this more traditional feature of business cycle dating methodology to the same countries and sample period yields results that do not support their conclusions about either the frequency of double-dip recessions or the number of countries in their sample that experienced multi-dip recessions. This paper first shows that double-dip recessions represent just 7.2% of all recessions and, therefore, are not as common as Kyer and Maggs reported. Second, only five of the 21 countries experienced recessions with two or more additional dips in economic activity over the entire sample period. Finally, only six countries experienced a multi-dip recession during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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6. Public expenditure multiplier across business cycle phases in an emerging economy: new empirical evidence and dimension.
- Author
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Sachdeva, Paras, Ahmad, Wasim, and Bhanumurthy, N. R.
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PUBLIC spending ,BUSINESS cycles ,FISCAL policy ,EMERGING markets ,INTEREST rates ,PRICE inflation - Abstract
In this paper, we study the transmission and effectiveness of the public expenditure shock across business cycle phases in the Indian economy. The empirical results suggest that the deflationary impact of the public expenditure shock and the subsequent accommodative response of interest rates exhibit a countercyclical public expenditure multiplier during the contraction period. Moreover, the large and significant negative impact of the public expenditure shock on inflation and the interest rate has resulted in a larger public expenditure multiplier during a supply-side recession than a demand-side recession. Based on empirical evidence, we suggest that policymakers consider the presence of nonlinearities in the transmission and effectiveness of the public expenditure shock while taking fiscal policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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7. Guest editorial: The double-edged sword of inward FDI for the growth and sustainability of emerging, developing, and under-developed economies.
- Author
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Park, Byung IL, Driffield, Nigel, and Piscitello, Lucia
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GLOBAL value chains ,BUSINESS cycles ,INTERNATIONAL competition ,FOREIGN investments ,BELT & Road Initiative ,LOCAL culture ,INSTITUTIONAL environment - Abstract
This article explores the controversial topic of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and its impact on emerging, developing, and underdeveloped economies. The authors highlight that while some studies show positive effects of FDI on economic growth, others fail to find such a relationship. The article presents six papers that delve into various aspects of FDI, including its effects on economic diversification, technology transfer, innovation, global value chains, and cultural distance. The findings suggest that the relationship between FDI and economic growth is complex and context-dependent. The article concludes by suggesting future research avenues, including the role of government corruption, the interaction between FDI and human capital, and the differentiation of FDI types. [Extracted from the article]
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- 2024
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8. The financing of innovation policies in Brazil between 1999 and 2016: political economy, institutions and financial cycles.
- Author
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Tavares, João Marcos Hausmann
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FINANCIAL institutions ,BUSINESS cycles ,ECONOMIC policy ,BUDGET process ,POLITICAL change - Abstract
The main objective of the present paper is to provide the reasons behind the rise and fall of resources for innovation policies in Brazil between 1999 and 2016. The paper also intends to provide a broad map of the financial relations between funding sources and financial agents in the Brazilian National System of Innovation (NSI). In order to do that, the paper uses mixed methods: a historical approach to cover the motivations of the political economy; principles of network analyses to map the institutional relations between funding sources and financial agents; and economic theory to understand the determinants of the cash flows that finance science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. The institutional arrangement of the Brazilian NSI led the financial cycle to rely, on a general level, on GDP dynamism; the strategy of selected public bodies; on the federal budget decision process; and on the external economic cycle. Between 2003 and 2014, political struggles led to economic policies that favoured GDP growth and public spending, while the opposite occurred from 2015 onwards. In general, institutions were not equipped to protect the financial resources from the political changes of the mid-2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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9. Exploring the relationship between inflation and unemployment in South Africa: A historical, theoretical, and empirical review.
- Author
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Azunna, Chigozie and Botes, Lucius
- Subjects
PRICE inflation ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,PHILLIPS curve ,BUSINESS cycles ,LABOR market - Abstract
The paper investigates the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the South African setting, encompassing a comprehensive analysis of historical, theoretical, and empirical evidence. Existing literature surveys demonstrate that several studies have been conducted in multiple countries to ascertain the correlation between inflation and unemployment. The review incorporated the postulations of many economic schools of thought as they are applied to South Africa. The Phillips Curve was examined in accordance with the research purpose. The process involves gathering secondary data from reputable sources such as Statistics South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank, and other reliable secondary sources to analyse this relationship. The findings are presented using linear regression, tables, and figures. The study utilised annual inflation and unemployment data in South Africa spanning from 2000 to 2022 to elucidate the correlation between inflation and unemployment. The study discovered that the link was nonlinear and did not exhibit any meaningful association or correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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10. What factors matter in rent negotiations? Differences in views between landlords and retail trade tenants.
- Author
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Hermansson, Cecilia and Lundgren, Berndt
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RENT ,RETAIL industry ,NEGOTIATION ,BUSINESS cycles ,LANDLORD-tenant relations ,COVID-19 pandemic - Abstract
This paper investigates differences in the views of rent negotiating landlords and retail trade tenants regarding the importance of various factors in their rent negotiations. The paper explores whether these actors' expectations are forward or backward looking as economic activity is increasing after the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, their different levels of trust in institutions, and in their counterpart as organisation and individual, are analysed. The study uses a web-based survey, gathering responses from some 100 landlords and tenants in the Swedish retail sector, and logit regressions. As demand increases after the pandemic, indicating a possibility to increase rents, the study finds that landlords are forward looking at this stage of the business cycle as regards industry developments, while tenants are backward looking or more focused on current contractual rents. Tenants focus more on vacancies and property value, which are set under pressure due to structural changes such as increased use of e-commerce and changes in working habits after the pandemic. Landlords show a higher level of trust in their counterpart as an individual than do tenants. This study contributes to an increased understanding of rent negotiations in two sectors – property and retail – that are facing structural challenges and difficulties in the wake of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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11. A mathematical model for the optimization of agricultural supply chain under uncertain environmental and financial conditions: the case study of fresh date fruit.
- Author
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Gharye Mirzaei, Mehran, Gholami, Saiedeh, and Rahmani, Donya
- Subjects
METAHEURISTIC algorithms ,PARTICLE swarm optimization ,BUSINESS cycles ,ROBUST optimization ,LINEAR programming - Abstract
In recent years, due to the rapid growth of the world's population, the demand for agricultural products and food is growing increasingly. Therefore, the agricultural supply chain optimization has been grabbed by researchers to reduce food security concerns. On the other hand, the production amount of farmers is affected by various factors, including environmental conditions. In this paper, a supply chain network is investigated by developing a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to effectively improve economic objectives under uncertainty. Then, a scenario-based robust optimization approach is employed to deal with the uncertainty. One of the novelities of our paper is considering weather conditions and economic fluctuations in different scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed mathematical model has been confirmed by a real case study of dates farms. Dates and its by-products have a significant role in GDP, job creation, export, and the creation of various packaging and processing. Moreover, three meta-heuristic algorithms including Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and a hybrid algorithm based on them (WOA–PSO) are adapted to deal with the NP-hardness of the problems. Moreover, the parameters of the proposed algorithms are improved by the Taguchi method, and to achieve more exact measurements, sensitivity analysis is performed. Finally, the numerical results confirmed that the accuracy of the hybrid algorithm was between 1.9 and 2.8%. Therefore, this approach could be practical and efficient for solving large-sized problems. The obtained outcomes demonstrated that the planned model provides tactical considerations for the related managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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12. The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on China's Economic and Financial Cycle: Application of a Structural Vector Autoregression Model Based on High-Frequency Data.
- Author
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Fan, Zhenzhong and Chen, Xing
- Subjects
VECTOR autoregression model ,BUSINESS cycles ,MONETARY policy ,GLOBAL Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 ,PRINCIPAL components analysis ,ECONOMIC forecasting ,INSTRUMENTAL variables (Statistics) - Abstract
With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China's inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China's stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China's monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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13. International price earnings and country risk model in an Asian context.
- Author
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Arayssi, Mahmoud and Yassine, Noura
- Subjects
RISK premiums ,FOREIGN investments ,PRICES ,RANDOM effects model ,BUSINESS cycles ,WESTERN countries - Abstract
Purpose: This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced countries. It uses the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and a dummy indicator for market-related events (i.e. financial crises), both approximating the business cycle. The model is used to compare a major Asian country's (i.e. Japan) risk with Western countries' risk. Design/methodology/approach: The model used finance variables such as the systemic, non-diversifiable, risk and foreign direct investments to characterize any country risk. A random effects model with panel data estimated the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on PE. The simultaneity problem was checked using two stage least squares and some lagged independent variables. Findings: The results explained to investors the country risk contributing factors: PE was positively correlated with variables that may increase dividends and market risk premia similar to GDP growth rates and total risk and negatively correlated with variables that increase market risk, namely, nominal risk-free interest rates and financial crises. Japan's PE seemed to exceed most of the Western countries considered here, implying lower risks, lower interest rates and higher growth in the major Asian country Japan. Originality/value: This paper focuses on the effectiveness of country risk measures in predicting periods of intense instability, similar to financial crises. This study contributes a model to measure market risk premium, using PE (or inversely, the earnings yield) as a proxy variable. Investors can use this risk measure in picking less risky stocks to include in their portfolio, calling for liberalizing Asian countries' financial markets to improve their stock market capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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14. Demand Uncertainty, Selection, and Trade.
- Author
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Sager, Erick and Timoshenko, Olga A.
- Subjects
ECONOMIC policy ,BUSINESS cycles ,ECONOMIC shock ,MONOPOLIES ,ECONOMIC activity - Abstract
This paper examines the role of uncertainty on elasticities of trade flows with respect to variable trade costs in a canonical model of trade with monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms. We identify two channels through which uncertainty impacts trade: through export participation thresholds (the selection effect) and the distribution of shocks governing export selection (the dispersion effect). While the selection effect dampens trade elasticities under uncertainty, the dispersion effect is ambiguous. We develop a methodology for using customs firm-level data to quantify trade elasticities under uncertainty, and the magnitude of each of the two channels through which uncertainty impacts trade. We find that uncertainty amplifies trade elasticities, on average, indicating that the dispersion effect of idiosyncratic firm-level shocks dominates - though the effect is heterogeneous across industries. The overall magnitude of the endogenous selection mechanism on trade elasticities is small, indicating that the main drivers of trade in this class of trade models are overwhelmingly incumbent firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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15. PROCYCLICAL ECONOMIC POLICY AND RISKS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY IN ROMANIA.
- Author
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TOBĂ, Daniel, SIMION, Dalia, and TÎRCĂ, Diana-Mihaela
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ECONOMIC policy ,SUSTAINABLE development ,BUSINESS cycles ,PRICE inflation ,ECONOMIC expansion ,DEMAND forecasting - Abstract
The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
- Full Text
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16. Cyclical dynamics and co-movement of business, credit, and investment cycles: empirical evidence from India.
- Author
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Garg, Ridhima and Sah, A. N.
- Subjects
GRANGER causality test ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
The paper aimed to investigate the cyclical dynamics of the business, credit, and investment sectors in India. This was achieved by utilizing annual data from 1980 to 2021 and investigating the impact of domestic and global financial cycles on the business cycle. The cycles were derived using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and Granger causality tests were employed to establish the dynamic interactions among these cycles. The results of the study revealed a clear divergence between domestic and global financial cycles. Additionally, the SVAR analysis confirmed the presence of a long-run relationship between business, investment, and credit cycles. Notably, the findings suggest that credit cycles can provide valuable insights to manage business cycles in India. Finally, robustness checks were conducted to confirm the reliability of SVAR findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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17. Flexible load control of new energy based on improved genetic algorithm.
- Author
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Liu, Jiyan, Li, Dong, Wang, Zhelong, Wang, Weishuai, and Li, Meng
- Subjects
GENETIC algorithms ,SLOPE stability ,ELECTRONIC equipment ,ENERGY development ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
In the medium and low voltage distribution network, the load form of users is complex and changeable. There are a large number of single-phase and two-phase loads connected to the distribution network, resulting in a three-phase unbalanced operation of the distribution network. With the development of the new energy, the high proportion of distributed new energy will further aggravate the three-phase imbalance of the distribution network. Therefore, this paper proposes a coordinated optimization framework of droop parameters based on the multi-converter droop control, which takes the minimum loss of the distribution network as the optimization objective, and optimizes the reference point and the slope of the VSC droop hierarchically. A small-signal stability optimization dispatching method for the VSC droop slope in the DC distribution network is proposed. By adding small-signal stability constraints to the slope optimization model, the optimal slope command and slope stability region which can ensure the small-signal stable operation of the system are obtained. Experiments show that the optimization model of the VSC small-signal stability slope can make the droop control instruction significantly improve the small-signal stability of the system to adapt to the intra-day source load power fluctuations with a small economic cost. The slope stability region pre-optimization model can provide a reliable stability slope upper limit for the slope optimization problem based on ensuring the system operation economy. The research in this paper can make full use of the flexible control ability of power electronic equipment, and then suppress the three-phase imbalance, which is of great significance to improve the security and economy of the distribution system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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18. The macro-financial effects of Climate Policy Risk: evidence from Switzerland.
- Author
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Berthold, Brendan
- Subjects
GOVERNMENT policy on climate change ,CARBON emissions ,PRICES ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
This paper quantifies empirically the macroeconomic and financial effects of Climate Policy Risk (CPR) in Switzerland. To do so, I develop a new CPR index using text analysis techniques on a large dataset of Swiss media articles. The identification of CPR shocks is achieved by using narrative restrictions around events which are likely to have coincided with an increase in the probability of adopting tighter climate policies. I find that CPR shocks are associated with a significant decline in real GDP and a decline in firm-level CO2 emissions. Using firm-level equity price data and rolling linear panel regressions, I document that CPR is increasingly reflected in asset prices. I further find that CO2-intensive firms perform significantly worse than their greener counterparts following events which increased transition risk. The results are in line with recent theoretical contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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19. Assessing the effect of trade and FDI on growth-unemployment nexus.
- Author
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Aleksandravičienė, Akvilė, Butkus, Mindaugas, and Kadiša, Tomas
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FISCAL policy ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,INTERNATIONAL economic relations ,BUSINESS cycles ,FOREIGN investments ,LITERATURE reviews ,GROSS domestic product ,EDUCATIONAL attainment - Abstract
Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activity is low, employment decreases, and unemployment rises. This relation is well-researched in the framework of Okun's law. However, it is far less known how this relationship holds if international economic relations are introduced. Thus, the motivation for the research was to examine the role of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growthunemployment nexus. Purpose of the article: To assess how trade and FDI affect growth and gender-, age-, and educational attainment level-specific unemployment relationship and on what scale this effect varies over different business cycle phases. Methods: Scientific literature review, comparative analysis, and panel regression. Findings & value added: Given the lack of research examining what effect FDI and trade have on the growth-unemployment nexus, this paper estimates modified Okun's equation on the European Union (EU) countries (EU-28, by the composition of the EU until 31/01/2020) for the period from 2000 to 2019 while incorporating international aspects that can have an impact on this nexus. Also, this study develops a specification that can be useful to monitor the potentially different effects of FDI and trade on the growth-unemployment nexus during different business cycle phases. The estimations of the panel regression for unemployment disaggregated by age, gender and education level has showed that import, export, inward FDI, and outward FDI have a negative effect on the growth-unemployment nexus. It means that with an increase in the intensity of international economic relations, the influence of gross domestic product (GDP) growth on unemployment becomes less significant. Thus, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy to reduce unemployment becomes less effective in more open economies, which in the case of the EU are the smallest member states with relatively small domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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20. The Life Cycle Assessment and Merit Order Effect of Green Hydrogen-Fueled Gas Turbine Power Plant.
- Author
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Heidary, Hadi and Janda, Karel
- Subjects
PRODUCT life cycle assessment ,GAS power plants ,POWER plants ,BUSINESS cycles ,WHOLESALE prices ,RENEWABLE energy sources ,ELECTRICITY pricing - Abstract
In this paper, an economic life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fueled gas turbine power plant is developed, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis with electricity generated from renewable resources (green hydrogen). By this way, the continuous green electricity without fluctuation can be generated. With a great potential in solar irradiation, Iran can be a major country for producing green hydrogen. For this purpose, first, we simulate a 100 MW solar PV plant in Fars province and calculate annual electricity generation. Considering capital cost (Capex) and operations and maintenance costs (Opex) of plants including PV, electrolyzer, hydrogen storage and distribution facilities, and gas turbine, we estimate levelized cost of electricity from green H
2 -fueled gas turbine power plant. Because hydrogen technology has not matured yet, the analysis for both 2021 and 2040 will be conducted. Due to lower marginal production costs, the increase in renewable energy sources decreases electricity wholesale prices. In this paper, we also estimate long-term merit order effect (MOE) of electricity generated by green hydrogen on electricity wholesale price. The results show that in renewable/hydrogen-based forecast for electricity mix of 2040, electricity wholesale price is estimated around 6.38 c$/kWh, nearly 38% less than present wholesale price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Identifying Construction Managers' Challenges: A Novel Approach Based on Social Network Analysis.
- Author
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Aghililotf, Milad, Ramezanianpour, Amir Mohammad, Arbabi, Hani, and Maghrebi, Mojtaba
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SOCIAL network analysis ,COST overruns ,BUSINESS cycles ,FINANCIAL stress ,CONSTRUCTION projects - Abstract
Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly leads to budget and schedule contingencies. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In the literature, a considerable number of papers have tried to determine construction PM challenges, mainly using statistical methods. These methods do not consider the cause-and-effect relationship among variables. To enhance the existing methods, this paper applies social network analysis (SNA) principles in order to rank a group of variables based on cause-and-effect relationships. To demonstrate the proposed idea, a data set is constructed that includes different types of challenges acquired from the literature comprehended with the forward-chaining approach. In total, 49 critical challenges were identified and subsequently categorized into 12 groups. Two questionnaires were designed to assist in ranking the challenges. 108 construction experts and 20 panelists participated in this study, and the acquired data were used to evaluate the proposed SNA-based method. By applying the proposed method to the obtained data, a complex weighted and directed network is constructed and examined by three metrics: weighted in-degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. The results revealed that poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, and poor decision making are the main challenges that occur in the construction environment. Moreover, it was figured out that considering the cause-and-effect relationship among variables resulted in a highly different ranking of challenges, much closer to the real situation. This model could be used in quantitative-analytical research conducted in the construction project knowledge area in order to obtain more interpretable answers. Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly lead to time and cost overruns. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In this research, comprehensive scientific efforts were made in order to rank the main PMs' challenges in the construction sector, especially in developing countries. For this purpose, cause-and-effect relationships among variables were considered. By using different questionnaires as well as forming different focus groups and interviewing different experts, we found that the main top 10 challenges in the construction sector are: poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, poor decision making, time pressure, rework, stressful atmosphere, design alteration (even after execution), workforce turnover, fluctuation rate and economic instability, and inappropriate and unrealistic scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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22. Adapting to an Economic Crisis: The Market System vs Hierarchical Governance.
- Author
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Martinez, Octavio J.
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,INDUSTRIAL clusters ,FINANCIAL crises ,ECONOMIES of agglomeration ,ECONOMIC geography ,VERTICAL integration - Abstract
This research investigates how exchange governance and the local market system influence a firm's adaptability to an economic crisis. This paper unveils a nuanced performance disparity by leveraging a rich dataset of manufacturing firms in Spain. While vertically integrated firms exhibit superior performance during periods of stability, they confront more significant setbacks in the aftermath of economic crises. This study demonstrates that the extent of this performance divergence is contingent upon the thickness of the local market system, supporting the hypothesis that vertically integrated firms derive reduced adaptive benefits from agglomeration economies. These findings shed light on the dynamic interrelationship between a firm's vertical scope and geographical context. They underscore the significance of a holistic assessment when determining the optimal approach to exchange governance. This assessment must evaluate the advantages and drawbacks of autonomous versus coordinated adaptation across economic cycles and geographies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. Household debt and financial vulnerability: empirical evidence for Spain, 2002–2020.
- Author
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Martín-Legendre, Juan Ignacio and Sánchez-Santos, José Manuel
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BUSINESS cycles ,CONSUMER credit ,POOR people ,CONSUMPTION (Economics) ,DEBT service ,RECESSIONS - Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Spanish households' indebtedness and financial vulnerability over the course of this century using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Our results show a growing debt participation of Spanish households and an increase in the stock of outstanding debt of indebted households, a trend that reversed with the end of the Great Recession. Moreover, the percentage of financially vulnerable households according to three indicators grew dramatically until the end of the downward phase of the last economic cycle and showed considerable signs of improvement during the second half of 2010s. These results, nonetheless, call attention to the number of Spanish households being unable to service their debts in the face of an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Granular Cities.
- Author
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Esquierro, Leon and Da Silva, Sergio
- Subjects
ZIPF'S law ,CITIES & towns ,METROPOLITAN areas ,BUSINESS cycles ,MUNICIPAL ordinances - Abstract
This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf's law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and business cycles. Our aim is to test the granular hypothesis that large cities have a significant impact on the business cycle beyond their relative size. We analyze data from American and Brazilian cities between 2003 and 2019 assessing the granular residuals and their explanatory power. Our findings reveal that in the United States, the granular city size is three metropolitan areas or five counties when redefined. In Brazil, it equates to three municipalities. These results emphasize the substantial role large cities play in national economic fluctuations, suggesting that policy interventions that target infrastructure, education, and innovation in major urban centers could have widespread economic benefits. This paper's contribution to the literature is to highlight a spatial component of granularity not considered so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Challenges of International Investment in Real Property Portfolio: Case Study of Developing Economy Using Nigeria Experience.
- Author
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Makata, Franklin and Udobi, Nnamdi Alex
- Subjects
FOREIGN investments ,INVESTOR confidence ,REAL estate sales ,REAL estate investment ,BUSINESS cycles ,PORTFOLIO diversification ,REAL estate business ,REAL property - Abstract
The global trend of investing in real property portfolios offers diversification, profitability, and a hedge against inflation. However, international investors encounter significant challenges in developing economies like Nigeria. Despite Nigeria's attractiveness due to its large population, rapid urbanization, and growing middle class, factors such as political instability, corruption, economic volatility, limited access to finance, and complex legal and regulatory frameworks inhibit foreign investment. Political instability and insecurity create an unpredictable environment, while corruption and bureaucracy further complicate business operations. Economic dependence on oil and infrastructure deficiencies also poses substantial risks. Addressing these multifaceted challenges is crucial for maximizing the investment potential in Nigeria's real estate market. Literature reveals both the opportunities and barriers for international investors, emphasizing the need for improved regulatory frameworks and infrastructure to attract and sustain foreign investment in Nigeria's real property sector. The study investigates the perceptions of respondents regarding various factors influencing foreign real estate investment in Nigeria, focusing on political instability, legal framework, economic fluctuations, infrastructure inadequacy, and potential improvements. Analysis of survey data, including histograms, ogive curves, and statistical metrics such as mean weight and standard deviation, reveals key insights. A significant proportion of respondents hold negative views on political instability and policy changes with the highest frequencies in Strongly Disagree and Disagree categories. The mean weight of 2.63 and a standard deviation of 1.49 indicate a general tendency towards disagreement with moderate variation. Respondents predominantly disagree that Nigeria's legal framework for property is clear and well-enforced, with a mean weight of 1.93 and a standard deviation of 1.34, reflecting a consensus on perceived regulatory inconsistencies and risks. There is prevalent disagreement that economic conditions and oil dependency positively impact the real estate market. The mean weight is 2.43, with a standard deviation of 1.52, indicating concerns about economic instability affecting investor confidence. The majority strongly agree that inadequate infrastructure is a major barrier to foreign real estate investment, with a mean weight of 4.53 and a standard deviation of 1.75, showing strong consensus on the need for infrastructure improvements. Respondents agree that improving political stability and legal regulations would boost investment, indicated by a mean weight of 3.6 and a standard deviation of 1.41, reflecting moderate agreement. There is strong agreement that diversifying the economy and improving infrastructure would enhance market stability and attractiveness, with a mean weight of 4.08 and a standard deviation of 1.60. The findings highlight significant concerns regarding political, legal, and economic factors, while emphasizing the importance of infrastructure improvements and economic diversification for attracting and sustaining foreign real estate investment in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
26. Income Shocks and Their Transmission into Consumption.
- Author
-
Crawley, Edmund and Theloudis, Alexandros
- Subjects
ECONOMIC shock ,BUSINESS cycles ,GOVERNMENT insurance ,PUBLIC spending ,CONSUMER behavior - Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. How Female Labor Supply Shapes Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics.
- Author
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Karabarbounis, Marios
- Subjects
LABOR supply ,LABOR market ,HOUSEKEEPING ,UNEMPLOYMENT insurance ,WOMEN'S employment ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
This article explores the impact of female labor supply on aggregate labor market dynamics. It discusses the rise in female labor market participation, which has been influenced by factors such as reduced wage gaps, increased accessibility to childcare, and the growing importance of the service sector. The article also examines the lower volatility of female labor supply during recessions and the higher elasticity of female labor supply in response to wage changes. It suggests that the insurance role of female labor supply may contribute to the lower aggregate responsiveness of female labor supply. Additionally, the article discusses the slowdown in female employment recoveries since the 1990s and its implications for jobless recoveries. Overall, understanding female labor supply dynamics is crucial for interpreting broader labor market phenomena. [Extracted from the article]
- Published
- 2024
28. Carbon emissions cap or energy technology subsidies? Exploring the carbon reduction policy based on a multi-technology sectoral DSGE model.
- Author
-
Gu, Jianping, Li, Yi, Hong, Jingke, and Wang, Lu
- Subjects
CARBON emissions ,ENERGY subsidies ,CLIMATE change ,BUSINESS cycles ,CARBON offsetting - Abstract
As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China's carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Nonlinear Kaldor model augmented with retardation and anticipation.
- Author
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Matsumoto, Akio and Szidarovszky, Ferenc
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,CAPITAL stock ,TAYLOR'S series ,NONLINEAR functions - Abstract
In this paper, we introduce the delayed-advanced Kaldorian business cycle model and consider how time-delay and time-advance affect economic fluctuations. Given the asymptotic stability of the original Kaldor model, we first show that an approximated Kaldor model by a Taylor series expansion can accurately describe the dynamics of the delayed Kaldor model. We also confirm that the delay has a destabilizing effect. When time-delay is replaced with time-advance, we have an advanced Kaldor model. Taking the advanced capital stock formulation, we derive the stability conditions and find that the time-advance has a stabilizing effect. Lastly, we examine these opposite-signed effects in a modified delayed-advanced model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Samuelson's last macroeconomic model: Secular stagnation and endogenous cyclical growth.
- Author
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Assous, Michaël, Boianovsky, Mauro, and Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J.
- Subjects
- *
MACROECONOMIC models , *STAGNATION (Economics) , *BUSINESS cycles , *LIMIT cycles , *DIFFERENCE equations , *ENDOGENOUS growth (Economics) , *DIFFERENTIAL equations - Abstract
On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. A long-run perspective on Latvian regional gross domestic product inequality, 1925–2016.
- Author
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Grytten, Ola Honningdal, Norkus, Zenonas, Markevičiūtė, Jurgita, and Šiliņš, Jānis
- Subjects
GROSS domestic product ,BUSINESS cycles ,ECONOMIC indicators ,WEALTH inequality ,INCOME inequality - Abstract
This paper for the first time calculates the historical regional GDP (rGDP) for an Eastern European country by using the methodology of Frank Geary and Tom Stark [2002. Examining Ireland's post-famine economic growth performance. The Economic Journal, 112(482):919–935]. The estimates cover the period 1925–1935 and are made for the historical Latvian regions Kurzeme, Vidzeme, Zemgale, Latgale, and Riga as well as within the contemporary NUTS3 units. The results are compared with the GDP disparity of the NUTS3 regions of the restored independent Latvia (2001–2016). The main findings are that the sigma divergence remained stable. Direct comparisons of regional growth rates indicate that economically more advanced regions were more sensitive to business cycles than less advanced regions. Hence, sigma divergence seems to prevail in times of high growth and convergence in times of low growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. A literature review on political uncertainty and stock market behaviour.
- Author
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Sharma, Sugandha and Bangur, Peeyush
- Subjects
LITERATURE reviews ,ECONOMIC uncertainty ,MARKETING literature ,EVENT marketing ,BUSINESS cycles ,CONCEPTUAL models - Abstract
The political event-related literature has been growing over the past decades, generating a continuous stream of research and journal publications. This article aims to systematically review the impact of the political events on stock market literature to outline its current state, trends, gaps, and discrepancies. To this end, 111 political events-related articles published in 68 finance, economic and political journals were extracted. The retrieved pieces of literature were thoroughly examined using a comprehensive classification framework that emphasized broadly conceptual, theoretical, and methodological aspects. Finally, building on this literature, the paper proposes an extensive research agenda to help move the political event literature forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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33. PROFILE OF SENIOR BUSINESS FAILURE.
- Author
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del Olmo-Garcia, Francisco, Crecente-Romero, Fernando Javier, del Val-Nunez, Maria Teresa, and Dominguez-Fabian, Inmaculada
- Subjects
BUSINESS failures ,BUSINESSPEOPLE ,BUSINESS cycles ,SPOUSES ,LABOR supply ,LABOR market - Abstract
Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
34. Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016.
- Author
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Summerfield, Fraser and Di Matteo, Livio
- Subjects
PANDEMICS ,INFLUENZA pandemic, 1918-1919 ,INFLUENZA ,BUSINESS cycles ,BLACK Death pandemic, 1348-1351 - Abstract
This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Economic and governance drivers of global remittances: a comparative study of the UK, US, and UAE to India.
- Author
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Khan, Imran
- Subjects
REMITTANCES ,BUSINESS cycles ,ECONOMIC change ,ECONOMIC impact ,JOB vacancies - Abstract
Purpose: The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest recipient of remittances. Design/methodology/approach: Using a comprehensive time series data set spanning 1996 to 2022, the authors use an innovative non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model approach to examine the influence of economic growth, corruption control and employer availability in the three source countries on remittance inflows to India. Findings: The results indicate that in the UAE, changes in economic growth and corruption control directly affect remittance outflows. However, the presence of employers in the UAE has minimal impact on remittance outflows to India. Regarding the UK, fluctuations in economic growth primarily drive remittance outflows to India. The effect of corruption control and employment opportunities on remittance outflows is marginal. In the USA, economic growth does not notably impact remittance outflows, whereas corruption control and employment opportunities significantly influence the outflows to India. Originality/value: These findings have important implications for policymakers. Analysing macroeconomic factors from key remittance-sending nations offers valuable insights for Indian policymakers and their international counterparts to enhance remittance inflows. The study focuses on three countries that collectively contribute to about 50% of India's remittances, providing a unique contribution compared to the usual country-specific or regional focus in existing literature. Finally, leveraging these findings, NITI Aayog, an organisation dedicated to achieving India's sustainable development goals, can effectively monitor macroeconomic indicators related to significant remittance-sending countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. Introduction to a Special Issue in Honor of David Card.
- Author
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Currie, Janet and Lemieux, Thomas
- Subjects
COLLEGE curriculum ,LEARNING by doing (Economics) ,ECONOMIC statistics ,BUSINESS cycles ,LABOR economics ,OCCUPATIONAL training - Abstract
This document is an introduction to a special issue of the Journal of Labor Economics that honors the research contributions of David Card, a prominent labor economist. The document highlights Card's significant contributions to various topics, including minimum wages, immigration, education, training programs, unions, and wage inequality. It also acknowledges Card's role in graduate education and his dedication to mentoring PhD students. The special issue includes papers that showcase the diversity of Card's interests and the broad scope of his advising. The papers cover topics such as industry wage differentials, gentrification, teacher salaries, online education, student debt relief, caregiving and labor supply, cesarean sections, minimum wages, and the labor market integration of refugees. The document concludes by acknowledging the support and contributions of various institutions and individuals in making this tribute possible. [Extracted from the article]
- Published
- 2024
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- View/download PDF
37. The Paradox of Investment: A Contribution to the Theory of Demand-Led Economic Growth.
- Author
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Leão, Emanuel Reis and Leão, Pedro Reis
- Subjects
- *
ECONOMIC expansion , *INDUSTRIAL capacity , *PARADOX , *BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
This paper has two purposes. The first is to argue that aggregate investment may be subject to the following paradox. A rise in investment decided by firms to correct overutilization of their production capacity may generate less capacity than demand — and hence cause a paradoxical rise in overutilization. This will in turn lead to even more investment, and so on — the result being the self-sustained rises in output that characterize economic expansions. The second purpose of the paper is to put forward one reason why the above paradox of investment will lose strength as expansions progress, and may eventually disappear leading to their end. That reason may be summarized as follows. As net investment increases along expansions, the effect of investment on production capacity rises relative to its effect on demand — and, as a result, the rise in utilization slows down. Moreover, as net investment eventually grows to a high level, the effect of investment on capacity may become bigger than its effect on demand. If this happens, utilization will stop rising and start falling, and thus the same may happen with investment and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Government Funding Allocations to Universities and the Business Cycle: An Analysis of Canada's Provincial Governments.
- Author
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Rockerbie, Duane and Easton, Stephen
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,PROVINCIAL governments ,EDUCATIONAL finance ,ECONOMIC models ,PUBLIC finance - Abstract
Canada's universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial government to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government revenue and the countercyclical effect on student demand by utilizing an economic regression model composed of three equations. Our panel data include the total real operating grant paid to all universities within a province, total student enrolment, real per capita government revenue, and real per capita gross domestic product for Canada's ten provinces over the 1992–2019 sample period. The results confirm that real per capita government revenues are procyclical and that full-time equivalent student enrolments are counter-cyclical. The total real operating grant is only weakly associated with cyclical changes in provincial government revenue. Instead, the total real operating grant is mainly determined by countercyclical changes in student demand. This partially offsets the potential reduction in funding to universities during an economic downturn. Provincial governments in Canada can smooth the total allocation over the business cycle by adjusting other expenditures and using debt financing. Our results suggest they do this to some extent, but not enough to avoid a net reduction in real operating grants during an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. The credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates: an analysis based on recurrence plots and visual boundary recurrence plots.
- Author
-
Andreadis, Ioannis, Fragkou, Athanasios D., Karakasidis, Theodoros E., and Serletis, Apostolos
- Subjects
MONEY supply ,COVID-19 pandemic ,GLOBAL Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 ,BUSINESS cycles ,PHASE space - Abstract
In this paper, we compare the dynamics of the growth rates of the original Divisia monetary aggregates, the credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates, and the credit card-augmented Divisia inside monetary aggregates. This analysis is based on the methods of recurrence plots, recurrence quantification analysis, and visual boundary recurrence plots which are phase space methods designed to depict the underlying dynamics of the system under study. We identify the events that affected Divisia money growth and point out the differences among the different Divisia monetary aggregates based on the recurrence and visual boundary recurrence plots. We argue that the broad Divisia monetary aggregates could be used for monetary policy and business cycle analysis as they are exhibiting less fluctuation compared to the narrow Divisia monetary aggregates. They could positively affect policy decisions regarding environmental choices and sustainability. We also point out the changes in the monetary dynamics locating the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Economic fluctuations and mortality in Canada revisited.
- Author
-
Janko, Zuzana and Popli, Gurleen
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,INCOME ,AGE groups ,EMPLOYMENT statistics ,DEATH rate - Abstract
This paper uses panel data for Canada from 1976 to 2018, across 10 provinces, to reassess the relationship between mortality rates and economic fluctuations. The key contribution of our paper lies in examining the extent to which this relationship is driven by the employment rate (extensive margin) versus average hours worked (intensive margin). We find evidence of procyclical mortality for females at the aggregate level; aggregate male mortality remains largely unaffected by economic fluctuations. Our findings also reveal temporal heterogeneity, as the extensive margin becomes the driving force for female mortality rates during the more recent period (1990 onwards). These findings remain robust when accounting for personal income and pollution. Finally, we find some support for a procyclical relationship for individuals in the working age groups, while mortality exhibits a countercyclical pattern for children (age 0 to 14) and the elderly (age 65 and above). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual study.
- Author
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Napari, Ayuba, Ozcan, Rasim, and Khan, Asad Ul Islam
- Subjects
MONETARY unions ,MONETARY policy ,NONPERFORMING loans ,BUSINESS cycles ,COUNTERFACTUALS (Logic) ,ECONOMIC structure ,FINANCIAL security - Abstract
Purpose: For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach: This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings: The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. Political Regimes and Informal Social Insurance.
- Author
-
López-Cariboni, Santiago
- Subjects
SOCIAL security ,DEVELOPING countries ,BUSINESS cycles ,FINANCIAL crises ,POLITICAL systems - Abstract
Deliberate non-enforcement of the law has been analyzed as a policy tool to redistribute income. I show that it also responds to political incentives for the provision of insurance, resembling two well-known dimensions of social policy design. I analyze data from a large informal program of social insurance in the world: informal access to electricity service. Transmission and distribution losses (TDL) in the electricity sector are counter-cyclical because non-compliance and theft increase during economic crises. By exploiting variation in political institutions, I capture political motivations for the provision of informal insurance. Using a panel of 110 developing countries (1970–2014) and instrumental variables for business cycles and regime type, I show that unlike highly entrenched autocrats, democracies tolerate increases in electricity losses during negative income shocks. This paper expands the literature on "forbearance" showing how the provision of informal insurance varies across the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Markov-Switching Models with Unknown Error Distributions: Identification and Inference Within the Bayesian Framework.
- Author
-
Hwu, Shih-Tang and Kim, Chang-Jin
- Subjects
TIME series analysis ,BAYESIAN field theory ,INDUSTRIAL production index ,MARKOV chain Monte Carlo ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
The basic Markov-switching model has been extended in various ways ever since the seminal work of Hamilton (1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle." Econometrica 57: 357–84). However, the estimation of Markov-switching models in the literature has relied upon parametric assumptions on the distribution of the error term. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for estimating Markov-switching models with unknown and potentially non-normal error distributions. We approximate the unknown distribution of the error term by the Dirichlet process mixture of normals, in which the number of mixtures is treated as a parameter to estimate. In doing so, we pay special attention to the identification of the model. We then apply the proposed model and MCMC procedure to the growth of the postwar U.S. industrial production index. Our model can effectively control for irregular components that are not related to business conditions. This leads to sharp and accurate inferences on recession probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. Agricultural Value Added, Farm Business Cycles and Their Relation to the Non-Farm Economy †.
- Author
-
Pappas, Christos P. and Papadas, Christos T.
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,AGRICULTURE ,SERVICE industries ,AGRICULTURAL industries ,ECONOMIC sectors ,COINTEGRATION - Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between the gross value added (GVA) of Greece's agricultural sector and the GVAs of the other sectors. The research considers both the relationship between value levels and the cycles of GVAs. Dynamic analysis using ARDL modeling shows that there is no cointegration between agricultural GVA and the other GVAs. However, there is an estimated cointegrating relationship between business cycles of agriculture and those of the rest of the economic sectors, with the cycles of services being the significant variable. Moreover, econometric analysis using NARDL modeling shows that there is a cointegrating relationship between the levels of GVAs as well, when asymmetricity—with respect to GVA changes of the services sector—is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. Endogenous Cycles in Collateralized Credit.
- Author
-
ARBUZOV, VYACHESLAV, AWAYA, YU, FUKAI, HIROKI, and WATANABE, MAKOTO
- Subjects
CREDIT ,ENDOGENEITY (Econometrics) ,COLLATERALIZED loan obligations ,FINANCIAL markets ,LOANS ,GENERAL equilibrium theory (Economics) ,ECONOMETRIC models ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
This paper presents a simple and tractable equilibrium model, where collateralized credit emerges under limited commitment. We show that even if there is no time variation in fundamentals, credit trade can fluctuate endogenously over time. In our theory, credit fragilities are associated with endogenous fluctuations in trade probabilities, collateral values, and lending volumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. Population aging, health care, and the macroeconomy: An introduction.
- Author
-
Huang, Kevin X. D. and Zhao, Kai
- Subjects
OLDER people ,POPULATION aging ,RETIREMENT planning ,MEDICAL care ,BUSINESS cycles ,FINANCIAL crises - Abstract
This article discusses the relationship between health care and the macroeconomy, which has gained increasing attention in recent years. The article highlights the importance of understanding the causes and implications of rising health care expenditures, as well as the impact of health on macroeconomic performance. It also explores various topics related to health and the economy, such as the implications of health risks for consumption and wealth allocation, the role of health as a type of human capital, and the challenges posed by population aging and rising health spending. The article includes six papers that examine different aspects of the macroeconomics of health care and aging in various countries. [Extracted from the article]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Innovation: a Theoretical Perspective.
- Author
-
Ahmad, Manzoor, Haq, Zahoor Ul, and Khan, Shehzad
- Abstract
This paper constructs a simple dynamic growth model and deducts four theoretical predictions: prediction I, new knowledge creations and research and development expenditures (R&DE) contribute to economic upturns and downturns; prediction II, the R&DE and new knowledge creations upsurge and fall in the economic expansions and contractions periods, respectively; prediction III, the research intensity and frequency of new knowledge creations increase and reduce during boom and recession periods, respectively; prediction IV, positive and negative shocks in R&DE and new knowledge creation are caused by changes in consumption, saving, R&DE, and innovation activities during economic boom and slump periods; and prediction IV, innovation and gross domestic product have a bidirectional causal nexus during trade cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. The significance of resource recycling for coking wastewater treatment: based on environmental and economic life cycle assessment.
- Author
-
Di Zhang, He Zhao, Wenfang Gao, Yuxing Sheng, and Hongbin Cao
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,WASTEWATER treatment ,PRODUCT life cycle assessment ,EFFLUENT quality ,ENVIRONMENTAL quality ,COKE (Coal product) ,ENVIRONMENTAL impact analysis - Abstract
The sustainability of the coking industry is supported by reasonable production profit and environmental quality requirements. The traditional measures substantially increased the related costs for enterprises to reach standards. This paper aims to develop a comprehensive cost combined environmental impact assessment method that is necessary for the analysis of wastewater treatment systems. Typical three coking wastewater treatment processes in China were evaluated. Results showed that eutrophication dominantly contributed to the overall environmental effect. Improving effluent quality could significantly reduce the total environmental impact. In terms of an economic perspective, the price of raw materials was the main factor that affected the operating cost of comprehensive treatment. Based on subsystem analysis, the pretreatment stage accounted for the majority of environmental and cost burdens, respectively reaching 64%-78% and 64%-86%. Optimizing the pretreatment process by enhancing the efficiency of high concentration raw material recovery and substituting toxic raw materials for extractant could reduce the environmental impact and economic cost by 43.8% and 57%, respectively, which was an effective way to improve the potential performance of coking wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Heritage Tourism Resilience and Sustainable Performance Post COVID-19: Evidence from Hotels Sector.
- Author
-
Azzaz, Alaa M. S. and Elshaer, Ibrahim A.
- Subjects
HERITAGE tourism ,SUSTAINABLE tourism ,SUSTAINABLE development ,COVID-19 pandemic ,BUSINESS cycles - Abstract
Heritage tourism in Egypt, differentiated by its distinctive ancient wonders and cultural prosperity, has faced numerous challenges through its history, with political unrest, economic fluctuations, and, most recently, the global COVID-19 pandemic. This research paper investigates the dynamic interplay between planned and adopted resilience within the hotel sector in Egyptian heritage sites and their consequential effects on both social and economic sustainability. A quantitative research method was employed to empirically explore these dynamics. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 550 top and middle managers in hotels located in heritage sites, capturing insights into their perspectives on planned and adopted resilience. The collected data underwent rigorous analysis utilizing "partial least squares structural equation modeling" (PLS-SEM), providing a robust foundation for drawing meaningful conclusions. Findings from the research underscore the necessity of aligning planned and adopted resilience to generate sustainable social and economic performance. The synthesis of planned and adopted resilience was revealed to be pivotal in generating sustainable social and economic performance for hotels. This synthesis catalyzes the hotels' ability to mitigate uncertainties, adjust to changing environment, and ensure long-term viability. This research might contribute to the current literature by suggesting industry-specific awareness for the reciprocal relationship between planned and adopted resilience in the hotel businesses and their combined influence on both sides of sustainability (social and economic). The findings provide actionable recommendations for hotel management, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to enhance resilience, foster social cohesion, and ensure the economic sustainability of heritage tourism in an everchanging environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Organizational life-cycle analysis of corporate offending: insights into how changes in business cycles interact with regulatory oversight to shape compliance and violations.
- Author
-
Wu, Yunmei, van Rooij, Benjamin, and Kluin, Marieke
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,SMALL business ,ROOT development ,FOOD industry ,HOSPITALITY ,CRIME analysis - Abstract
This paper showcases an organizational life-cycle analysis of corporate offending behavior in small businesses. It analyzes two small food and hospitality firms in China, drawing on deep ethnographic data collected during three years of fieldwork. The paper investigates these two businesses as they go through three phases: pre-existence, existence, and survival. The study shows that organizational life-course analysis is important for understanding the development and root causes of organizational offending. It finds that offending evolves alongside the development of the organization. It shows that an organizational life-cycle analysis should focus not just on changes in the corporation itself, but also on how the regulatory context changes over the course of the organization's development and maturing. Stages in the business cycle coincide with changes in regulatory encounters, and this shapes how corporations view what regulators expect of them and the extent to which they can violate such expectations. This points to a broader form of life-course analysis. It urges the field to moves beyond an analysis of changes in the business to also study the how such changes coincide with changes in the regulatory frameworks that are supposed to monitor and reduce offending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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