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The action required to stem the environmental and social implications of climate change depends crucially on how humankind shapes technology, economy, lifestyle and policy. With transport CO2 emissions accounting for about a quarter of the total, we examine the contribution of CO2 output by scientific travel. Thankfully for the reputation of the scientific community, CO2 emissions associated with the trips required to present a paper at a scientific conference account for just 0.003% of the yearly total. However, with CO2 emissions for a single conference trip amounting to 7% of an average individual’s total CO2 emissions, scientists should lead by example by demonstrating leadership in addressing the issue.

In response to the recent development of ear corn feeding systems and the shortage of bulking agents for manure composting in the Hokkaido region, the plausibility of using corn stover (a residue of ear corn harvesting) as an alternative bulking agent for dairy manure composting was tested. The temperature profile, quality of the final product, and greenhouse gas emissions were evaluated and compared with the values obtained from manure that used wheat straw, a typical bulking agent. A sufficiently high temperature profile (>70°C) and active organic matter degradation were achieved by mixing in corn stover. After active organic matter degradation for 8 weeks, CO2 production was significantly lower and the stable final products were obtained. The total solids level increased significantly, to 48.8–50.4%, while the C/N ratio dropped significantly, from 19.9–21.8 to 11.2–12.8. Methane emission from the corn-stover-based pile was 0.36% of initial volatile solids, while nitrous oxide emission was 0.58% of initial N, proving that the use of corn stover can mitigate greenhouse gas emission and that its mitigating effect was comparable to those of other bulking agents. Together, the results showed that the use of corn stover can be a suitable alternative bulking agent for dairy manure composting and can serve as part of an ecologically friendly and “circular” method of dairy farming.

There are large amounts of waste activated sludge (WAS) and kitchen waste (KW) produced every year in China. It has been confirmed that anaerobic co-digestion is an effective method to solve this problem. The targets of the present study were optimizing the digestive performances and clearing of the mechanism of bentonite addition by adding bentonite into digestive system. Group M (WAS: KW = 1:2, based on VS) presented higher cumulative methane yield (CMY), where the CMY increased from 19.8 to 36.3 mL/g VS with the bentonite dosage from 0 to 2 g/g VS. After bentonite addition, the lag phase of every digester presented an obvious decrease from 15.1 to 1.4 d. Furthermore, and the moderating effects on microbial community by bentonite. The addition of bentonite improved methane production, and it can also reduce the lag phase of methane production in co-digestion. What's more, bentonite addition increased the speed of pH recovery from 4.2-4.8 to normal level (7.0-8.0) and thus enhanced the system stability. The conclusion of this study can be used to guide practical engineering.

An electrochemically activated solution (ECAS), generated by electrolysis of a dilute sodium chloride solution in a four-chamber electrolytic cell (Ecas4), was tested as a sanitising aerosol in eliminating bacteria from the environment of a weaning room vacated 24-48h earlier, at a continuous flow pig farm. An ultrasonic humidifier was used to fill the environment with a fog (droplets with diameters of 1–5 μm) containing 0.25 ppm of hypochlorous acid. The weaning room was fogged for 3 min at 30 min intervals during five hours of aerosol disinfection. An innovative sample treatment with propidium monoazide dye in conjunction with cyclonic air sampling was optimised and adapted for discerning live/dead bacteria in subsequent molecular quantification steps. Without fogging, total bacterial load ranged from 5.06 ± 0.04 to 5.75 ± 0.04 Log10 CFU/m3. After the first hour of fogging, a 78% total bacterial reduction was observed, which further increased to > 97% after the second hour, > 99.4% after the third and 99.8% after the fourth hour, finally resulting in a 99.99% reduction from the farm environment over five hours. Unlike the current formaldehyde spray disinfection protocol, which requires a long empty period because of its hazardous properties, this economically viable and environmentally friendly disinfection protocol may significantly lower downtime. Moreover, ECAS fogging can be easily adapted to a variety of applications, including the elimination of pathogens from livestock farm air environment for disease prevention, as well as decontamination after disease outbreaks. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

This study aimed to establish a new methodology for upgrading biomass quality using low-temperature (below 100 degrees C) oxidation to achieve simultaneous drying and decomposition. Sterilized manure (63% wet basis) was heated at 90 degrees C for 49 days under an oxidative environment. The obtained solid and moisture reduction curves indicated that drying and decomposition proceeded simultaneously. The biomass was decomposed by oxidation with the release of water, carbon dioxide, and volatile fatty acids such as acetic acid. The oxidation process stopped when the biomass was dehydrated, indicating that the water originally present in the biomass governed the process. Elemental and calorific analyses revealed no remarkable increase in carbon content or increased heating value, and a slight decrease in oxygen content. Although the severity of the process was insufficient to produce an optimum solid fuel due to the low temperature used, the process would enable the stabilization of waste biomass with low energy consumption such as using waste heat.

Sugarcane bagasse is a vast lignocellulosic byproduct generated in the industry with ~50% humidity (1 kg dry matter associated with 1 kg water). Although the presence of water brings deleterious consequences for combustion, storage and sugar extraction, the location of water in fresh bagasse remains unknown. In this work, we use synchrotron X-ray microtomography for non-invasive 3D imaging of fresh bagasse particles, which allows the visualization of intraparticle water. The sclerified fiber cells in the sheaths surrounding xylem vessels are often found full of water. We suggest this can be juice preserved from the native stalks as many sclerified fibers seem to keep their structural integrity despite the mechanical action during sugarcane crushing. The microtomograms of fresh bagasse also shows mineral particles adhered to biomass surfaces, with adhesion presumably favored by the presence of water. In summary, this work unveils the location of water in fresh bagasse, solving an old mystery of sugarcane technology.

Although there are a variety of commercially available biological and chemical treatments for removal of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from biogas, managing biogas H2S remains a significant challenge for agricultural digesters where labor and operational funds are very limited compared to municipal and industrial digesters. The objectives of this study were to evaluate headspace aeration for reducing H2S levels in low cost plug flow digesters and to characterize the relationship between the liquid surface area and H2S oxidation rates. Experiments with replicate field scale plug flow digesters showed that H2S levels decreased from 3500 ppmv to

Several studies have proposed that the microbiological quality of the air in operating theatres be indirectly evaluated by means of particle counting, a technique derived from industrial clean-room technology standards, using airborne particle concentration as an index of microbial contamination. However, the relationship between particle counting and microbiological sampling has rarely been evaluated and demonstrated in operating theatres. The aim of the present study was to determine whether particle counting could predict microbiological contamination of the air in an operating theatre during 95 surgical arthroplasty procedures. This investigation was carried out over a period of three months in 2010 in an orthopedic operating theatre devoted exclusively to prosthetic surgery. During each procedure, the bacterial contamination of the air was determined by means of active sampling; at the same time, airborne particulate contamination was assessed throughout the entire procedure. On considering the total number of surgical operations, the mean value of the total bacterial load in the center of the operating theatre proved to be 35 CFU/m(3); the mean particle count was 4,194,569 no./m(3) for particles of diameter ≥0.5 µm and 13,519 no./m(3) for particles of diameter ≥5 µm. No significant differences emerged between the median values of the airborne microbial load recorded during the two types of procedure monitored. Particulates with a diameter of ≥0.5 µm were detected in statistically higher concentrations (p

Background The progress of green credit in China is accelerating, but its development is uneven and insufficient in different regions. And whether the issuance of green credit can effectively promote the improvement of the environment and economy is not well understood. Objective Previous research has found that green credit promotes economic growth through improvement of the industrial structure and green technological innovation. However, these studies have not considered the positive externality of environmental improvement even though environmental improvement and economic growth are requirements of the sustainable development concept. Methods We use the chain-mediated model to estimate the impact of green credit issuance on the economic growth of different provinces since the large-scale implementation of green credit in China with data from 2008 to 2016. Results and conclusion This paper shows that the issuance of green credit can improve labor supply rather than labor productivity through the improvement of air quality to achieve regional economic growth. Such a chain-mediated path is different from the economic growth caused by industrial structural adjustment and green technology innovation. At the national level, every 1% increase in green credit issuance relative to industrial loans will increase the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) by approximately 4.6 yuan, or 0.012%, through air quality and labor supply, accounting for 2.875% of the total effect. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that due to regional industrial structure differences and diminishing marginal effects, the impact of green credit is stronger in the western region than in the eastern and central regions. For every 1% increase in the proportion of green credit issuance relative to industrial loans, the per capita GDP growth achieved through the chain-mediated path is approximately 30.17 yuan in the western region, approximately 6.6 times greater than that at the national level. Within a 95% confidence interval of 5000 bootstrap samples, this path is found to be true, and the chain-mediated effect accounts for approximately 12.96% of the total indirect effect. Limitations The limitation of this paper is the measurement of green credit. Although green credit has a large volume, it remains underdeveloped, and there is a lack of perfect indicators. Most existing studies have adopted only alternative or reverse indicators to measure the issuance of green credit. For example, this paper takes the interest expenditure of six high-energy-consuming enterprises as the reverse indicator, which may to a certain extent lead to the overestimation of the issuance of green credit and its impact on the environment and economy. Future research can accurately explore the performance of green credit on the basis of its mature development.

A growing level of environmental awareness in societies has led to an increased interest in the odor nuisance. Residents’ complaints have ultimately revealed the need to develop adequate research methods that would ensure objective measurements, thus shedding more light on this complex problem. One of the possible ways to conduct an objective odor assessment is to use a sensory panel in the tests. This paper presents the procedure for selecting and training the sensory analysis team especially for the purposes of odor nuisance testing. Several useful suggestions for conducting studies that involve a sensory panel are also provided. This in turn can prove a useful tool, supplementing the EN 13725 standard within the scope of building and convening a sensory panel. In this paper a performance comparison of two sensory panels is also discussed: one that received a basic training of 20h, solely based on the guidelines of the EN 13725 standard and another, whose members completed an extended training of 60h, based on the standards and guidelines used in the field of sensory analysis. It has been shown that acquiring more knowledge and developing certain competences in the field of sensory analysis may contribute to an increase in the overall and individual precision of determinations as adequate sensory training improves the panel’s performance.

A study was conducted to assess the efficacy of ozone gas in inactivating spores of both Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus subtilis inoculated onto six building materials (glass, wood, carpet, laminate, galvanized metal, and wallboard paper). Testing conditions consisted of ozone gas concentrations ranging from 7,000-12,000 parts per million (ppm), contact times from 4 to 12 h, and two relative humidity (RH) levels of 75 and 85%. Results showed that increasing the ozone concentration, contact time, and RH generally increased decontamination efficacy. The materials in which the highest decontamination efficacy was achieved for B. anthracis spores were wallboard paper, carpet, and wood with ≥ 6 log10 reduction (LR) occurring with 9,800 ppm ozone, 85% RH, for 6 h. The laminate and galvanized metal materials were generally more difficult to decontaminate, requiring 12,000 ppm ozone, 85% RH, and 9-12 h contact time to achieve ≥6 LR of B. anthracis. Lastly, overall, there were no significant differences in decontamination efficacy between the two species.

To better understand the agricultural resources and environmental problems of the provinces along The Belt and Road in China, it is critical to investigate their agricultural carbon emission efficiency and evolutionary trends. Based on the panel data of 18 key provinces and cities between 2006 and 2015, this paper evaluated the agricultural carbon emission efficiency with the data envelopment analysis–Malmquist model and further explored their dynamic evolutionary trends. There were several main findings. First, the efficiency levels of agricultural carbon emissions showed significant regional differentiation among the areas, with that along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road being much higher than that along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Second, technical efficiency was the key factor that restricted the improvement of the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural carbon. Third, most provinces invested in too many redundant and unreasonably allocated resources, showing a trend of diminishing returns to scale. Last, According to dynamic evolution analysis, the total productivity still demonstrated a diminishing trend. This paper provides some suggestions for effectively improve the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in China, such as optimize the agricultural industrial structure, increasing the investment of carbon emission reduction technology, and implementing a carbon emission quota clearing system. This paper contributes to the improvement of the environment in China.

The paper presents a mapping tool aiming to identify and minimise potential conflicts between onshore wind energy development and wildlife conservation in Lithuania. It merges current information on the distribution, conservation status and sensitivity of birds and bats to wind power with an integrated evaluation of wind resources (modelled wind speed), special planning status and technical perspectives of wind energy development. The paper includes assessment of the selected wildlife species which were described as sensitive to wind power (69 breeding and 43 migratory bird species and 17 bat species bats in the country). Used species level information allowed the precise identification of sensitive territories and might be used to mitigate negative wind farm effects using special measures based on species behavior. Finally, we delivered overlaps as possible conflicts among the most promising wind farm areas and the areas with high sensitivity in relation to bird and bat distribution. These overlaps point to the required attention and relevant decisions that are needed to ensure sustainable development of wind energy throughout the country. We suggest this tool for initial determination of appropriate areas for wind energy development in the country and as supplement to Environmental Impact Assessment.

Introduction In connection to food insecurity, adaptation of new techniques or alteration of regular behavior is executed that translates to coping strategies. This paper has used data from food security and nutrition surveillance project (FSNSP), which collects information from a nationally representative sample in Bangladesh on coping behaviors associated with household food insecurity. To complement the current understanding of different coping strategies implemented by the Bangladeshi households, the objective of this paper has been set to examine the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the food insecure households which define their propensity towards adaptation of different types of coping strategies. Methodology FSNSP follows a repeated cross-sectional survey design. Information of 23,374 food insecure households available from February 2011 to November 2013 was selected for the analyses. Coping strategies were categorized as financial, food compromised and both. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to draw inference. Results Majority of the households were significantly more inclined to adopt both multiple financial and food compromisation coping strategies. Post-aman season, educational status of the household head and household women, occupation of the household’s main earner, household income, food insecurity status, asset, size and possession of agricultural land were found to be independently and significantly associated with adaptation of both financial and food compromisation coping strategies relative to only financial coping strategies. The relative risk ratio of adopting food compromisation coping relative to financial coping strategies when compared to mildly food insecure households, was 4.54 times higher for households with moderate food insecurity but 0.3 times lower when the households were severely food insecure. Whereas, households were 8.04 times and 4.98 times more likely to adopt both food compromisation and financial relative to only financial coping strategies if moderately and severely food insecure respectively when compared to being mildly food insecure. Conclusion Households suffering from moderate and severe food insecurity, are more likely to adopt both financial and food compromisation coping strategies.

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective., PLoS ONE, 12 (10), ISSN:1932-6203

One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999-2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions.

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. Copyright: © 2014 Pearce et al.

This paper examines whether mega-events-initiated planning regulations improved air quality in Chinese cities and explores the driving forces of the enforcement of such regulations. Using the 2008 Beijing Olympics as an example, we find that mega-events serve as an opportunity for cities to combat air pollution. The 2008 Olympics prompted a handful of Chinese cities to cut pollution and sustain a blue sky: Cities with air quality regulated for the Olympics cut their Air Pollution Index by about 16 points during the Games, compared to non-regulated cities, and 60% of that effect remained four years after the event. These achievements are obtained through effective mobilization of city leaders by associating air quality with their political careers. This study reveals that 1) a mega-event may improve urban environmental quality beyond the host cities and the event period, and 2) successful implementation of environmental regulations hinges on incentivizing local leaders.

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.

A key challenge of environmental planning is to craft recommendations for future sustainable spatial development amid ubiquitous uncertainties. This paper aims to explore how different data uncertainties, usually unknown to the planner, may influence environmental planning recommendations. We apply a case study-based approach, in which we provide three illustrative examples of how data with different kinds and levels of uncertainty affect environmental assessments and, by that, the decision-support provided by environmental planning. The cases stem from different spatial levels in Germany and consider ‘Regional soil-based climate change mitigation’ in the region of Hannover, ‘State-wide habitat conservation siting’ in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, and ‘National renewable energy planning’. Based on the three examples, we discuss implications for planning practice and derive recommendations for further research. The three cases studies illustrate the substantial effects of data uncertainty on environmental assessments and planning recommendations derived from those results. We identify four problem constellations of dealing with data uncertainty in environmental planning that relate to the severeness of uncertainty impacts, the responsibility of the decision-maker, and the kinds of impacts that wrong decisions may have. We close with recommendations for further research, among others to develop robust and pragmatic methods for identifying the uncertainty levels in environmental data and assessment results.

Degradation in the polymeric insulators is caused due to the environmental stresses. The main aim of this paper is to explore the improved aging characteristics of hybrid samples by adding nano/micro silica in High Temperature Vulcanized Silicone Rubber (HTV-SiR) under long term accelerated aging conditions for 9000 hours. As HTV-SiR is unable to sustain environmental stresses for a long time, thus a long term accelerated aging behavior is an important phenomenon to be considered for field application. The aging characteristics of nano/micro filled HTV-SiR are analyzed by using techniques such as Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Leakage Current (LC), Fourier Transform Infrared Microscopy (FTIR), Hydrophobicity Classification (HC), and breakdown strength for the aging time of 9000 hours. FTIR and leakage currents are measured after every cycle. All the co-filled samples revealed escalated aging characteristics as compared to the neat sample except the SN8 sample (8% nano-silica+20% micro-silica) after 9000 hours of aging. The highest loading of 6% and 8% nano-silica with 20% micro-silica do not contribute to the improved performance when compared with the neat and hybrid samples. However, from the critical experimental analysis, it is deduced that SN2 sample (2% nano-silica+20% micro-silica) is highly resistant to the long term accelerated aging conditions. SN2 has no cracks, lower loss percentages in the important FTIR absorption peaks, higher breakdown strength and superior HC after aging as compared to the unfilled and hybrid samples.

This study documents a rare case of mummified human remains from Japan, dating to the late Heian period, 12th Century AD. The remains have only been scientifically investigated once in 1950 so far. The results of this investigation were translated, analyzed, and interpreted using methods of the 21st century. The remains have been traditionally identified as the four ruling generations of the Ōshū Fujiwara clan, who built a cultural and economic center in Hiraizumi. Accordingly, this paper will first examine the historical and cultural significance of Hiraizumi and its ruling class before re-evaluating the findings of the 1950 investigation. This study is the first in the Western scientific literature to provide a comprehensive historical, cultural, and medical evaluation of these mummies.

Few studies have examined the effects of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions on the shift in human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) season in Japan. This study aims to test whether the number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions are associated with the onset week of HRSV epidemic season. The estimation of onset week for 46 prefectures (except for Okinawa prefecture) in Japan for 4-year period (2014–2017) was obtained from previous papers based on the national surveillance data. We obtained data on the yearly number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological (yearly mean temperature and relative humidity) conditions from Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), respectively. Multi-level mixed-effects linear regression analysis showed that every 1 person (per 100,000 population) increase in number of overall inbound overseas travelers led to an earlier onset week of HRSV epidemic season in the year by 0.02 week (coefficient –0.02; P

In this paper, a new innovative type-2 fuzzy-based for microgrid (MG) islanding detection is proposed in the condition of uncertainties. Load and generation uncertainties are two main sources of uncertainties in microgrids (MGs). Regardless of the uncertainties, the results cannot be confirmed. The proposed controller detects islanding in the fastest time under different conditions, and the uncertainties in the system will not considerably affect the controller’s performance. The proposed method is simulated on the sample system and examined in different scenarios. Then, a comparison is made in different conditions and scenarios between the suggested method and some common methods that have been presented so far to demonstrate the ability of the proposed method for islanding detection.

This paper explores whether efficacy beliefs can alter the relationship between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors, controlling for climate change beliefs and socio-demographics. For this purpose, we used data from 23 countries that participated in the European Social Survey Round 8 (N = 44 387). Worry about climate change, personal efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy were each associated with personal energy-saving behaviors concerning either energy curtailment or energy efficiency. The results further show that outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and both types of energy behaviors. Worry was more strongly related to energy curtailment behaviors among those with high levels of personal and collective outcome expectancy. A similar pattern was found for energy efficiency behaviors, which were more strongly predicted by worry about climate change when combined with high levels of collective outcome expectancy. These findings are relevant for climate change communication, especially informational campaigns aiming to lower overall household energy use. publishedVersion

Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is a common childhood illness. The paper aims to capture the spatiotemporal characters, and investigate the influence factors of the HFM epidemic in 15 regions of Xinjiang province from 2008 to 2017, China. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that the children aged 0-5 years have a higher HFM incidence, mostly boys. The male-female ratio is 1.5:1. Through the scanning method, we obtain the first cluster high-risk areas. The cluster time is usually from May to August every year. A spatiotemporal model is proposed to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on HFM disease. Comparing with the spatial model, the model is more effective in terms of R2, AIC, deviation, and mean-square error. Among meteorological factors, the number of HFM cases generally increases with the intensity of rainfall. As the temperature increases, there are more HFM patients. Some regions are mostly influenced by wind speed. Further, another spatiotemporal model is introduced to investigate the relationship between HFM disease and socioeconomic factors. The results show that socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the disease. In most areas, the risk of HFM disease tends to rise with the increase of the gross domestic product, the ratios of urban population and tertiary industry. The incidence is closely related to the number of beds and population density in some regions. The higher the ratio of primary school, the lower the number of HFM cases. Based on the above analysis, it is the key measure to prevent and control the spread of the HFM epidemic in high-risk areas, and influence factors should not be ignored.

Interpreting human behavioral patterns during the Middle Paleolithic in the Levant is crucial for better understanding the dispersals and evolution of Homo sapiens and their possible interactions with other hominin groups. Here, we reconstruct the technological behavior, focusing on the centripetal Levallois method at Nesher Ramla karst sinkhole, Israel. Nesher Ramla karst sinkhole is dated to the Marine Isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 5 and represents one of the oldest occurrences of the centripetal Levallois reduction strategy in the Near East. The Levallois centripetal technology is often seen as a marker of human dispersals and adaptations in the Middle Paleolithic/Middle Stone Age of Africa and the Near East. This technology is documented in East African sites as early as 300 kya and in the Levant as early as 130 kya. However, the degree of similarity between African and Levantine centripetal technology and whether it originates from the same source remain under debate. In this paper, we focus on describing the lithic organization at Unit III of Nesher Ramla (dated to MIS 5), which is dominated by the centripetal Levallois method in association with other reduction sequences. Both preferential and recurrent centripetal Levallois modes were used at the site to produce oval and rectangular flakes. Other minor reduction sequences include unidirectional convergent method for Levallois points production and a specific method for the manufacture of naturally backed knives. The lithic data from Unit III of Nesher Ramla is further used in inter-site comparisons suggesting that the mid-Middle Paleolithic sites in the Near East possess common technological characteristics, especially the use of the centripetal Levallois method as predominant reduction strategy. This trend differs from what is usually observed in Africa and Europe, where the centripetal Levallois method is modestly represented during MIS 5 and is accompanied by other, more dominant, reduction strategies.

Air pollution is a serious concern to people who want to engage in physical activities to improve and maintain their health. However, air quality data collected at the nearest monitoring site may not be the best source of information because the data may be incomplete (e.g., some pollutants are not monitored) or not representative. This paper puts forward a method that uses air quality data from a large area to derive a diurnal profile of air quality variation for that area and identify the time window in which the air quality is typically the best during a day. If people exercise in that time window then they can minimize their exposure to air pollution. Three years' worth of air quality data in five California counties were analyzed to identify the general pattern of diurnal variation of air quality. The analysis shows the pattern of air quality variation is very similar among those five counties which represent diverse geographical and meteorological conditions. The analysis further reveals that in California air quality is generally the best in early mornings; as such, people should exercise in the early morning if their daily schedule allows it. A similar analysis can be performed for other areas to help people choose the best time window to exercise.

Wheelchair castors fail frequently causing physical, social and economic consequences for wheelchair users. These failures occur in spite of established wheelchair test methods and regulations, suggesting that the existing tests may not be sufficient to screen poorly designed castors. An expert stakeholder group, convened by the International Society of Wheelchair Professionals (ISWP), noted castor failures as a high priority and recommended that a new castor testing system should be developed. In a previous study, the effect of shock exposure on castor durability was studied. The current paper extends the previous work and focuses on the development of a castor testing protocol based on shock, corrosion and abrasion exposure data collected in the community. The testing protocol was applied to 8 different castor models tested under four conditions: shock, corrosion + shock, abrasion + shock and abrasion + corrosion + shock. For each model, a total of n = 8 samples were evaluated across the four conditions. Results demonstrate that corrosion and abrasion reduced castor durability between 13% to 100% depending on the model. Importantly, the inclusion of corrosion and abrasion resulted in changes in the failure modes for 75% of the tested models and two-thirds of the altered failure modes are associated with increased risk of injury for wheelchair users. These results suggest that corrosion and abrasion present in the community reduce castor durability, thus supporting their inclusion in the castor testing protocol and potentially other wheelchair standards.

Southern African cities face several challenges including management of rapid urbanization, rising populations, expanding informal settlements; adequate water and other service provision, and a host of governance challenges. Climate change and variability add a compounding effect to this complex, multi stressor context. Addressing the complexity requires an understanding of urban ecosystems functioning and interactions amongst the built and natural environment (climate) and human systems. In this paper we argue that learning is essential for cities to be resilient to current and future challenges. We profile the Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL) project which contributed towards climate resilient development by providing relevant climate information for decision-making at the city regional scale in southern Africa. Following FRACTAL’s city-to-city learning approach of sharing good practices, knowledge and experiences framed around transdisciplinary research, the study cities of Harare, Lusaka, Windhoek and Durban conducted city learning exchange visits between 2017 and 2018. We used a mixed methods approach to collect and analyze historical climate and hydrological data and current socio-economic and development data among the cities. A qualitative, in-depth, case study comparative analysis was used to identify similarities and differences as well as lessons drawn from the learning process during the city exchanges and these were complimented by desktop studies. Results showed water scarcity, large informal settlements, reliance on external water and energy sources, inadequate protection of ecologically sensitive resources and service provision as some of the common complications in the cities. Several lessons and transferable practices learnt from the cities included effective water conservation and waste management and the use of public-private partnerships in Windhoek, community engagements in Durban and Lusaka while lessons on decisive leadership in dealing with informal settlements emanated from Harare’s limited informal settlements. Lastly, Durban’s Adaptation Charter and integrated climate planning provided lessons for biodiversity protection and mainstreaming climate change at city governance level. While we recognize that cities are context-specific we consider these good practices as being broadly transferable to other southern African cities. We conclude that social, experiential and structured learning can be an innovative way of multi-stakeholder engagement and a useful approach to increase city resilience planning across southern Africa and cities that face similar developmental challenges.

Hydrologic models such as the USEPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) are commonly used to assess the design and performance of green infrastructure (GI). To accurately represent GI performance models used in design need to be able to address both the hydrology/hydraulics of the catchment and the GI unsaturated (vadose) zone hydrology. While hydrologic models, such as SWMM, address the need for catchment hydrology/hydraulics, they often simplify the unsaturated zone hydrology. This paper presents a methodology utilizing existing components of SWMM to represent unsaturated zone hydrology in an accessible format that does not require adjustments to the SWMM source code. The methodology simulated the unsaturated soil water movement by considering flow caused by differences of soil matric head and flow caused by gravity between soil layers with finite depth/length. The flow flux related to the soil matric head is a function of soil water diffusivity (D) and the soil moisture gradient, where D can be represented by a pump curve in SWMM. The flow flux related to gravity was controlled by unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (K) only and was also simulated by a pump. The methodology was compared to another variably saturated model, HYDRUS, with theoretical soils (with single layers of sand, loam, silt, and clay, as well as dual-layer scenarios). Field data was used to compare the methodology to HYDRUS and the SWMM LID (Low Impact Development) module. In all comparisons the presented methodology and HYDRUS delivered similar results for the vadose zone response to a storm event, while the LID module of SWMM exhibited slower water movement. The results showed that under natural conditions, the approximation of the presented methodology yielded satisfactory results to simulate flow through the unsaturated vadose zone.

When assessing the short term effect of air pollution on health outcomes, it is common practice to consider one pollutant at a time, due to their high correlation. Multi pollutant methods have been recently proposed, mainly consisting of collapsing the different pollutants into air quality indexes or clustering the pollutants and then evaluating the effect of each cluster on the health outcome. A major drawback of such approaches is that it is not possible to evaluate the health impact of each pollutant. In this paper we propose the use of the Bayesian hierarchical framework to deal with multi pollutant concentration in a two-component model: a pollutant model is specified to estimate the `true' concentration values for if your each pollutant and then such concentration is linked to the health outcomes in a time series perspective. Through a simulation study we evaluate the model performance and we apply the modelling framework to investigate the effect of six pollutants on cardiovascular mortality in Greater London in 2011-2012.

Wind energy is one of the most important renewable resources and plays a vital role in reducing carbon emission and solving global warming problem. Every country has made a corresponding energy policy to stimulate wind energy industry development based on wind energy production, consumption, and distribution. In this paper, we focus on forecasting wind energy consumption from a macro perspective. A novel power-driven fractional accumulated grey model (PFAGM) is proposed to solve the wind energy consumption prediction problem with historic annual consumption of the past ten years. PFAGM model optimizes the grey input of the classic fractional grey model with an exponential term of time. For boosting prediction performance, a heuristic intelligent algorithm WOA is used to search the optimal order of PFAGM model. Its linear parameters are estimated by using the least-square method. Then validation experiments on real-life data sets have been conducted to verify the superior prediction accuracy of PFAGM model compared with other three well-known grey models. Finally, the PFAGM model is applied to predict China's wind energy consumption in the next three years.

When the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is used for aerial spraying, the downwash airflow generated by the UAV rotor will interact with the crop canopy and form a conical vortex shape in the crop plant. The size of the vortex will directly affect the outcome of the spraying operation. Six one-way spraying were performed by the UAV in a rice field with different but random flying altitude and velocities within the optimal operational range to form different vortex patterns. The spraying reagent was clear water, which was collected by water sensitive paper (WSP), and then the WSP was analyzed to study the droplets deposition effects in different vortex states. The results showed that the formation of the vortex significantly influenced the droplet deposition. To be specific, the droplet deposition amount in the obvious-vortex (OV) state was about 1.5 times of that in the small-scale (SV) vortex state, and 7 times of that in the non-vortex (NV) state. In the OV state, the droplets mainly deposited directly below and on both sides of the route. The deposition amount, coverage rate and droplet size increased from top to bottom of the crops with the deposition amount, coverage rate, and volume median diameter (VMD) ranging 0.204-0.470 μL/cm2, 3.31%-7.41%, and 306-367μm, respectively. In the SV state, droplets mainly deposited in the vortex area directly below the route. The deposition amount in the downwind direction was bigger than that in the upwind direction. The maximum of deposition amount, coverage rate and droplet size were found in the middle layer of the crops, the range are 0.177-0.334μL/cm2, 2.71%-5.30%, 295-370μm, respectively. In the NV state, the droplet mainly performed drifting motion, and the average droplet deposition amount in the downwind non-effective region was 29.4 times of that in the upwind non-effective region and 8.7 times of the effective vortex region directly below the route. The maximum of deposition amount, coverage rate and droplet size appeared in the upper layer of the crop, the range are 0.006-0.132μL/cm2, 0.17%-1.82%, 120-309μm, respectively, and almost no droplet deposited in the middle and lower part of the crop. The coefficient of variation (CV) of the droplet deposition amount was less than 40% in the state of obvious-vortex and small-scale vortex, and the worst penetration appeared in the non-vortex amounting to 65.97%. This work offers a basis for improving the spraying performance of UAV.

This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area.

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data.

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of exchange rate and stock market on carbon emission allowance price in four emissions trading scheme pilots in China. We employ a panel quantile regression model, which can describe both individual and distributional heterogeneity. The empirical results illustrate that the effects of explanatory variables on carbon emission allowance price is heterogeneous along the whole quantiles. Specifically, exchange rate has a negative effect on carbon emission allowance price at lower quantiles, while becomes a positive effect at higher quantiles. In addition, a negative effect exists between domestic stock market and carbon emission allowance price, and the intensity decreasing along with the increase of quantile. By contrast, an increasing positive effect is discovered between European stock market and domestic carbon emission allowance prices. Finally, heterogeneous effects on carbon emission allowance price can also be proved in European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS).

After being the standard plant propagation protocol for decades, cultures of Arabidopsis thaliana sealed with Parafilm remain common today out of practicality, habit, or necessity (as in co-cultures with microorganisms). Regardless of concerns over the aeration of these cultures, no investigation has explored the CO2 transport inside these cultures and its effect on the plants. Thereby, it was impossible to assess whether Parafilm-seals used today or in thousands of older papers in the literature constitute a treatment, and whether this treatment could potentially affect the study of other treatments.For the first time we report the CO2 concentrations in Parafilm-sealed cultures of A. thaliana with a 1 minute temporal resolution, and the transcriptome comparison with aerated cultures. The data show significant CO2 deprivation to the plants, a drastic suppression of photosynthesis, respiration, starch accumulation, chlorophyll biosynthesis, and an increased accumulation of reactive oxygen species. Most importantly, CO2 deprivation occurs as soon as the cotyledons emerge. Gene expression analysis indicates a significant alteration of 35% of the pathways when compared to aerated cultures, especially in stress response and secondary metabolism processes. On the other hand, the observed increase in the production of glucosinolates and flavonoids suggests intriguing possibilities for CO2 deprivation as an organic biofortification treatment in high-value crops.

Compared with the idealized isotropic coal seam, the effectively cracking distances of deep-hole pre-splitting blasting in different directions have significant difference in the structural anisotropy of coal seam. In this paper, based on the test results of coal mechanical parameters in different coring directions, the blasting crack distances in these coring directions of coal seam are theoretically calculated and analyzed, and then a new method of blasthole layout in coal seam is designed and the blasting crack effect is investigated according to the test data of gas drainage. The research results show that both compressive strength and tensile strength of the direction of perpendicular to bedding are larger than that in other directions, especially parallel to bedding. The blasting crack distances of calculation results are in great agreement with that of underground in-situ measurement, so the blasting crack zone caused by the differences of mechanical properties in different directions can be approximately treated as an ellipse. Comparing the conventional method of blasthole layout, the blasting crack effect with new method has greatly enhanced the methane concentration and gas drainage quantity. Pure methane quantities with the new method and conventional method are about 2.8 times and 1.67 times as large as that before blasting, and pure methane quantity with the new method is about 1.46 times that with the conventional method. Therefore, considering the anisotropic characteristics of coal seams, the reasonable blasthole layout plays an important role for enhancing gas drainage in low permeability and outburst working face.

Fog computing is a promising technology that leverages the resources to provide services for requests of IoT (Internet of Things) devices at the cloud edge. The high dynamic and heterogeneous nature of devices at the cloud edge causes failures to be a popular event and therefore fault tolerance became indispensable. Most early scheduling and fault-tolerant methods did not highly consider time-sensitive requests. This increases the possibility of latencies for serving these requests which causes unfavorable impacts. This paper proposes a fault-tolerant scheduling method (FTSM) for allocating services' requests to the most sufficient devices in fog-cloud IoT-based environments. The main purpose of the proposed method is to reduce the latency and overheads of services and to increase the reliability and capacity of the cloud. The method depends on categorizing devices that can issue requests into three classes according to the type of service required. These classes are time-sensitive, time-tolerant and core. Each time-sensitive request is directly mapped to one or more edge devices using a pre-prepared executive list of devices. Each time-tolerant request may be assigned to one or more devices at the cloud edge or the cloud core. Core requests are assigned to resources at the cloud core. In order to achieve fault tolerance, the proposed method selects the most suitable fault-tolerant technique from replication, checkpointing and resubmission techniques for each request while most existing methods consider only one technique. The effectiveness of the proposed method is assessed using average service time, throughput, operation costs, success rate and capacity percentage as performance indicators.

The paper presents the results of an experiment on the effect of pre-sowing stimulation of seeds with atmospheric pressure plasma jet operating with dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma jet) on the process of germination of Thuringian Mallow (Lavatera thuringiaca L.). Five groups of seeds characterized by a different exposure times (1, 2, 5, 10 and 15 minutes) as well as untreated seeds—control were used. Pre-sowing plasma stimulation of seeds improved germination parameters such as: germination capacity and germination energy for all tested groups relative to control. The highest germination parameters were obtained for seeds stimulated with plasma for the exposure times of 2 and 5 min. The analysis of the contact surface angle indicated the decrease of its’ mean values upon seed stimulation while no statistical effects were observed. Analysis of the SEM scans revealed the increase in seed pattern intensity which could be attributed to removing of the surface parts of cuticle possibly covered with wax upon short time—2 and 5 min plasma treatment. Such a phenomenon can act similarly to mechanical scarification of seeds. Longer exposure of seeds to plasma resulted in affecting the deeper zone of cuticle and damage or fracture of some parts of the cuticle. Lower germination parameters of seeds upon longer exposure times to plasma may indicate mechanical damage of the seeds.

Super-critical carbon dioxide energy-storage (SC-CCES) technology is a new type of gas energy-storage technology. This paper used orthogonal method and variance analysis to make significant analysis on the factors which would affect the thermodynamics characteristics of the SC-CCES system and obtained the significant factors and interactions in the energy-storage process, the energy-release process and the whole energy-storage system. Results have shown that the interactions in the components have little influence on the energy-storage process, the energy-release process and the whole energy-storage process of the SC-CCES system, the significant factors are mainly on the characteristics of the system component itself, which will provide reference for the optimization of the thermal properties of the energy-storage system.

Maintaining crop outputs to feed its large population with limited resources while simultaneously mitigating carbon emissions are great challenges for China. Improving the efficiency of resource use in crop production is important in reducing carbon emissions. This paper constructs a methodological framework combining emergy-based indicator accounting and a nonseparable undesirable output slack-based measurement (SBM) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. This framework is used to explore the efficiency of inputs and outputs and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential for crop production systems, using Zhejiang province, China, as a case study. It is found that an emergy synthesis and a nonseparable undesirable output SBM-DEA framework is compatible with the case study. Crop production in Zhejiang province has relied heavily on an increase in agrochemical inputs to maintain agricultural output. Energy and chemical fertilizer use are determined as the province’s major carbon emissions sources. Although carbon emissions per unit of monetary output has decreased sharply, the carbon emissions per unit emergy output has increased, demonstrating a high carbon intensity reality. The DEA highlighted the differences in crop production efficiency, resource factor redundancy and carbon mitigation potential in the different prefectures of the province. To conclude this research, policies to support low carbon agriculture development, including subsidizing low carbon agriculture technology development and expansion and the cancellation of subsidies to high carbon production factors, such as chemical fertilizer production and sales, are discussed to conclude the research.

This paper focuses on the indirect adaptive tracking control of renewable energy sources in a grid-connected hybrid power system. The renewable energy systems have low efficiency and intermittent nature due to unpredictable meteorological conditions. The domestic load and the conventional charging stations behave in an uncertain manner. To operate the renewable energy sources efficiently for harvesting maximum power, instantaneous nonlinear dynamics should be captured online. A Chebyshev-wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control paradigm is proposed for variable speed wind turbine-permanent synchronous generator (VSWT-PMSG). A Hermite-wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT control strategy for photovoltaic (PV) system to extract maximum power and indirect adaptive tracking control scheme for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) is developed. A comprehensive simulation test-bed for a grid-connected hybrid power system is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness of the suggested indirect adaptive control paradigms are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system test-bed by comparison with conventional and intelligent control techniques. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigms.

The multi-period (~38,000–6000 cal BP) site of Franchthi Cave, located in the Argolid peninsula of southern mainland Greece, is unique in the Eastern Mediterranean for preserving a long archaeological sequence extending from the Upper Palaeolithic through to the end of the Neolithic period. In this paper, we present new anthracological (carbonized fuel wood waste) evidence from Franchthi Cave with which we reconstruct the changing ecology of woodland vegetation in its environs during the late Pleistocene and the early-mid Holocene. The integrated archaeobotanical record (charred wood and non-wood macro-remains) demonstrates that in the Lateglacial the now-submerged coastal shelf of the southern Argolid peninsula was covered by steppe grassland vegetation dominated by junipers, almonds, cereals and legumes. The rapid climatic amelioration that marked the start of the Holocene brought about the disappearance of juniper and the expansion of deciduous woodland, cereals and lentils. This woodland-grassland biome bears no analogues in the modern and historical vegetation ecology of the Aegean basin. Instead, it is directly comparable to the steppe woodland biomes exploited by late Pleistocene and early Holocene hunter-gatherers in Southwest Asia, and points to the convergent evolution of late Pleistocene and early Holocene plant exploitation strategies between the two regions. Continuous sea-level rise during the early Holocene led to the gradual extinction of this unique palaeohabitat, which acted as the catalyst for the selective introduction of domesticated cereal crops at Franchthi Cave in the early 9th millennium cal BP. Our meta-analysis of the non-wood archaeobotanical data puts into question the concept of the wholesale introduction of a crop “package” by pioneer settler groups arriving from the East. It is proposed instead that selective cereal crop introduction formed part of a complex pattern of sociocultural interactions that brought together indigenous and immigrant groups into new communities.

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system’s predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

Aiming at the dense urban road network vulnerability without structural negative consequences, this paper proposes a novel non-structural road network vulnerability analysis framework. Three aspects of the framework are mainly described: (i) the rationality of non-structural road network vulnerability, (ii) the metrics for negative consequences accounting for variant road conditions, and (iii) the introduction of a new vulnerability index based on user exposure. Based on the proposed methodology, a case study in the Sioux Falls network which was usually threatened by regular heavy snow during wintertime is detailedly discussed. The vulnerability ranking of links of Sioux Falls network with respect to heavy snow scenario is identified. As a result of non-structural consequences accompanied by conceivable degeneration of network, there are significant increases in generalized travel time costs which are measurements for “emotionally hurt” of topological road network.

Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data.

The Anseriformes is a well-known and widely distributed bird order, with more than 150 species in the world. This paper aims to revise the classification, determine the phylogenetic relationships and diversification patterns in Anseriformes by exploring the Cyt b, ND2, COI genes and the complete mitochondrial genomes (mito-genomes). Molecular phylogeny and genetic distance analyses suggest that the Dendrocygna species should be considered as an independent family, Dendrocygnidae, rather than a member of Anatidae. Molecular timescale analyses suggests that the ancestral diversification occurred during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (58 ~ 50 Ma). Furthermore, diversification analyses showed that, after a long period of constant diversification, the median initial speciation rate was accelerated three times, and finally increased to approximately 0.3 sp/My. In the present study, both molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses results support that Anseriformes birds underwent rapid and recent diversification in their evolutionary history, especially in modern ducks, which show extreme diversification during the Plio-Pleistocene (~ 5.3 Ma). Therefore, our study support that the Plio-Pleistocene climate fluctuations are likely to have played a significant role in promoting the recent diversification for Anseriformes.

The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion.