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In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the 'peril ratio'. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata.

Malaria prevalence remains high in many African countries despite massive scaling-up of insecticide treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper evaluates the protective effect of pyrethroid IRS and ITNs in relation to risk factors for malaria based on a study conducted in North-West Tanzania, where IRS has been conducted since 2007 and universal coverage of ITNs has been carried out recently. In 2011 community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the two main malaria transmission periods that occur after the short and long rainy seasons. These included 5,152 and 4,325 children aged 0.5-14 years, respectively. Data on IRS and ITN coverage, household demographics and socio-economic status were collected using an adapted version of the Malaria Indicator Survey. Children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic test. In the second survey, haemoglobin density was measured and filter paper blood spots were collected to determine age-specific sero-prevalence in each community surveyed. Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in children 0.5-14 years old was 9.3% (95%CI:5.9-14.5) and 22.8% (95%CI:17.3-29.4) in the two surveys. Risk factors for infection after the short rains included households not being sprayed (OR = 0.39; 95%CI:0.20-0.75); low community net ownership (OR = 0.45; 95%CI:0.21-0.95); and low community SES (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.13, 95%CI:0.05-0.34). Risk factors after the long rains included household poverty (per quintile increase: OR = 0.89; 95%CI:0.82-0.97) and community poverty (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.26, 95%CI:0.15-0.44); household IRS or high community ITN ownership were not protective. Despite high IRS coverage and equitable LLIN distribution, poverty was an important risk factor for malaria suggesting it could be beneficial to target additional malaria control activities to poor households and communities. High malaria prevalence in some clusters and the limited protection given by pyrethroid IRS and LLINs suggest that it may be necessary to enhance established vector control activities and consider additional interventions.

BackgroundThe potential role of DSS in CVD prevention remains unclear as only a few studies report on patient outcomes for cardiovascular disease.Methods and ResultsA systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies was done using Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, PubMed, Amed, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus databases; reference lists of relevant studies to 30 July 2011; and email contact with experts. The primary outcome was prevention of cardiovascular disorders (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary heart disease, peripheral vascular disorders and heart failure) and management of hypertension owing to decision support systems, clinical decision supports systems, computerized decision support systems, clinical decision making tools and medical decision making (interventions). From 4116 references ten studies met our inclusion criteria (including 16,312 participants). Five papers reported outcomes on blood pressure management, one paper on heart failure, two papers each on stroke, and coronary heart disease. The pooled estimate for CDSS versus control group differences in SBP (mm of Hg) was - 0.99 (95% CI −3.02 to 1.04 mm of Hg; I2 = 0; p = 0.851).ConclusionsDSS show an insignificant benefit in the management and control of hypertension (insignificant reduction of SBP). The paucity of well-designed studies on patient related outcomes is a major hindrance that restricts interpretation for evaluating the role of DSS in secondary prevention. Future studies on DSS should (1) evaluate both physician performance and patient outcome measures (2) integrate into the routine clinical workflow with a provision for decision support at the point of care.

BackgroundOverweight/obesity is a serious public health problem that affects a large part of the world population across all age and racial/ethnic groups. However, there has not been a meta-analysis of the prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight/obesity in China during the past 30 years.MethodsThe China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang DATA, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature were searched for relevant studies published between January 1970 and June 2012. The prevalence of overweight/obesity over time was pooled using Stata/SE, version 9. Summary statistics (odds ratios, ORs) were used to compare sex-specific and urban-rural preponderance of overweight/obesity using Review Manager.ResultsAfter screening 1326 papers, we included 35 papers (41 studies), most of medium quality. The prevalence of overweight/obesity increased from 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4%-3.1%) and 0.4% (95% CI, -0.1% to -0.8%) respectively in 1981-1985 to 13.1% (95% CI, 11.2%-15.0%) and 7.5% (95% CI, 6.6%-8.4%) respectively in 2006-2010. The average annual increase was 8.3% and 12.4% respectively. Boys were more likely to be overweight/obese than girls (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.24-1.49 and OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.52-1.86 respectively). The prevalence of overweight/obesity was higher in urban areas than in rural areas (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.54-1.79 and OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.68-2.30 respectively). For age-specific subgroup analyses, both overweight and obesity increased more rapidly in the toddler stage than in other developmental stages. Sensitivity analyses showed that sample-size differences, study quality, overweight/obesity criteria and geographical distribution affected overweight/obesity prevalence.ConclusionsToddlers and urban boys were at particularly high risk; the prevalence in these groups increased more rapidly than in their counterparts. Public health prevention strategies are urgently needed to modify health behaviors of children and adolescents and control overweight/obesity in China.

Objectives: Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods: 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results: Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions: England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census in characterising background trends and evaluating interventions.

Drawing on experience gained from ongoing research in Mali, this paper describes practical ethical challenges relating to the achievement of valid consent in genomic epidemiology.

Background\ud \ud Dried blood spots (DBS) have been used as alternative specimens to plasma to increase access to HIV viral load (VL) monitoring and early infant diagnosis (EID) in remote settings. We systematically reviewed evidence on the performance of DBS compared to plasma for VL monitoring and EID.\ud \ud Methods and Findings\ud \ud Thirteen peer reviewed HIV VL publications and five HIV EID papers were included. Depending on the technology and the viral load distribution in the study population, the percentage of DBS samples that are within 0.5 log of VL in plasma ranged from 52–100%. Because the input sample volume is much smaller in a blood spot, there is a risk of false negatives with DBS. Sensitivity of DBS VL was found to be 78–100% compared to plasma at VL below 1000 copies/ml, but this increased to 100% at a threshold of 5000 copies/ml. Unlike a plasma VL test which measures only cell free HIV RNA, a DBS VL also measures proviral DNA as well as cell-associated RNA, potentially leading to false positive results when using DBS. The systematic review showed that specificity was close to 100% at DBS VL above 5000 copies/ml, and this threshold would be the most reliable for predicting true virologic failure using DBS. For early infant diagnosis, DBS has a sensitivity of 100% compared to fresh whole blood or plasma in all studies.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud \ud Although limited data are available for EID, DBS offer a highly sensitive and specific sampling strategy to make viral load monitoring and early infant diagnosis more accessible in remote settings. A standardized approach for sampling, storing, and processing DBS samples would be essential to allow successful implementation.\ud \ud Trial Registration\ud \ud PROSPERO Registration #: CRD42013003621.

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. European Community' Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n223075 the MedCHAMPS project. Scopus

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases.

BackgroundIt is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash.MethodsThe Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score.ResultsA total of 801 (31.0%) participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR): 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60) but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88) compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49).ConclusionsPrevious crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries.

BackgroundCommunity level interventions to improve maternal and child health have been supported and well evaluated in resource poor settings, but less so in developed countries. PRISM--Program of Resources, Information and Support for Mothers--was a primary care and community-based cluster-randomised trial in sixteen municipalities in Victoria, Australia, which aimed to reduce depression in mothers and improve their physical health. The aim of this paper is to report the longer term outcomes of PRISM and to reflect on lessons learned from this universal community intervention to improve maternal health.MethodsMaternal health outcome data in PRISM were collected by postal questionnaire at six months and two years. At two years, the main outcome measures included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the SF-36. Secondary outcome measures included the Experience of Motherhood Scale (EOM) and the Parenting Stress Index (PSI). A primary intention to treat analysis was conducted, adjusting for the randomisation by cluster.Results7,169/18,424 (39%) women responded to the postal questionnaire at two years -3,894 (40%) in the intervention arm and 3,275 (38%) in the comparison arm. Respondents were mostly representative on available population data comparisons. There were no differences in depression prevalence (EPDS≥13) between the intervention and comparison arms (13.4% vs 13.1%; ORadj = 1.06, 95%CI 0.91-1.24). Nor did women's mental health (MCS: 48.6 vs 49.1) or physical health scores (PCS: 49.1 vs 49.0) on the SF-36 differ between the trial arms.ConclusionImprovement in maternal mental and physical health outcomes at the population level in the early years after childbirth remains a largely unmet challenge. Despite the lack of effectiveness of PRISM intervention strategies, important lessons about systems change, sustained investment and contextual understanding of the workability of intervention strategies can be drawn from the experience of PRISM. Trial Registration. Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN03464021.

Background India, with a population of more than 1.21 billion, has the highest maternal mortality in the world (estimated to be 56000 in 2010); and adolescent (aged 15–19) mortality shares 9% of total maternal deaths. Addressing the maternity care needs of adolescents may have considerable ramifications for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)–5. This paper assesses the socioeconomic differentials in accessing full antenatal care and professional attendance at delivery by adolescent mothers (aged 15–19) in India during 1990–2006. Methods and Findings Data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey of India conducted during 1992–93, 1998–99, and 2005–06 were analyzed. The Cochran-Armitage and Chi-squared test for linear and non-linear time trends were applied, respectively, to understand the trend in the proportion of adolescent mothers utilizing select maternity care services during 1990–2006. Using pooled multivariate logistic regression models, the probability of select maternal healthcare utilization among women by key socioeconomic characteristics was appraised. After adjusting for potential socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the likelihood of adolescents accessing full antenatal care increased by only 4% from 1990 to 2006. However, the probability of adolescent women availing themselves of professional attendance at delivery increased by 79% during the same period. The study also highlights the desolate disparities in maternity care services among adolescents across the most and the least favoured groups. Conclusion Maternal care interventions in India need focused programs for rural, uneducated, poor adolescent women so that they can avail themselves of measures to delay child bearing, and for better antenatal consultation and delivery care in case of pregnancy. This study strongly advocates the promotion of a comprehensive ‘adolescent scheme’ along the lines of ‘Continuum of Maternal, Newborn and Child health Care’ to address the unmet need of reproductive and maternal healthcare services among adolescent women in India.

France implemented a comprehensive smoke-free law in two phases: Phase 1 (February 2007) banned smoking in workplaces, shopping centres, airports, train stations, hospitals, and schools; Phase 2 (January 2008) banned smoking in hospitality venues (bars, restaurants, hotels, casinos, nightclubs). This paper evaluates France's smoke-free law based on the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project in France (the ITC France Project), which conducted a cohort survey of approximately 1,500 smokers and 500 non-smokers before the implementation of the laws (Wave 1) and two waves after the implementation (Waves 2 and 3). Results show that the smoke-free law led to a very significant and near-total elimination of observed smoking in key venues such as bars (from 94-97% to 4%) and restaurants (from 60-71% to 2-3%) at Wave 2, which was sustained four years later (6-8% in bars; 1-2% in restaurants). The reduction in self-reported smoking by smoking respondents was nearly identical to the effects shown in observed smoking. Observed smoking in workplaces declined significantly after the law (from 41-48% to 18-20%), which continued to decline at Wave 3 (to 14-15%). Support for the smoke-free laws increased significantly after their implementation and continued to increase at Wave 3 (p

Objectives The paper describes the creation of a new scale to measure intimate partner violence (IPV) among gay and bisexual men. Methods Seven focus group discussions were held with gay and bisexual men, focusing on defining intimate partner violence: 30 forms of IPV were identified. A venue-recruited sample of 912 gay and bisexual men was surveyed, examining definitional understanding and recent experiences of each of the 30 forms of IPV. Participants were also asked questions from the CDC definition of intimate partner violence and the short-form of the Conflicts Tactics Scale (CTS2S). Factor analysis of responses to the definitional questions was used to create the IPV-GBM scale, and the prevalence of intimate partner violence was compared with that identified by the CDC and CTS2S measures of intimate partner violence. Results A 23-item scale, with 5 unique domains, was created, with strong internal reliability (Cronbach Alpha >.90). The IPV-GBM scale mirrored both the CDC and CTS2S definitions of intimate partner violence, but contained additional domains such as controlling violence, monitoring behaviors, emotional violence, and HIV-related violence. The new scale identified a significantly higher prevalence of IPV than either of the more commonly used measures. Conclusions The results presented here provide encouraging evidence for a new, more accurate measure of intimate partner violence among gay and bisexual men in the U.S.

Objective Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method. Results The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter. Conclusion Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years.

Background: Accurate data on coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) interventions are crucial for monitoring progress toward the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. Coverage estimates are primarily obtained from routine population surveys through self-reporting, the validity of which is not well understood. We aimed to examine the validity of the coverage of selected MNCH interventions in Gongcheng County, China. Method and Findings: We conducted a validation study by comparing women's self-reported coverage of MNCH interventions relating to antenatal and postnatal care, mode of delivery, and child vaccinations in a community survey with their paper- and electronic-based health care records, treating the health care records as the reference standard. Of 936 women recruited, 914 (97.6%) completed the survey. Results show that self-reported coverage of these interventions had moderate to high sensitivity (0.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50-0.63] to 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98-1.00]) and low to high specificity (0 to 0.83 [95% CI: 0.80-0.86]). Despite varying overall validity, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging between 0.49 [95% CI: 0.39-0.57] and 0.90 [95% CI: 0.88-0.92], bias in the coverage estimates at the population level was small to moderate, with the test to actual positive (TAP) ratio ranging between 0.8 and 1.5 for 24 of the 28 indicators examined. Our ability to accurately estimate validity was affected by several caveats associated with the reference standard. Caution should be exercised when generalizing the results to other settings. Conclusions: The overall validity of self-reported coverage was moderate across selected MNCH indicators. However, at the population level, self-reported coverage appears to have small to moderate degree of bias. Accuracy of the coverage was particularly high for indicators with high recorded coverage or low recorded coverage but high specificity. The study provides insights into the accuracy of self-reports based on a population survey in low- and middle-income countries. Similar studies applying an improved reference standard are warranted in the future.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin B12 deficiency is prevalent in many countries of origin of refugees. Using a threshold of 5% above which a prevalence of low Vitamin B12 is indicative of a population health problem, we hypothesised that Vitamin B12 deficiency exceeds this threshold among newly-arrived refugees resettling in Australia, and is higher among women due to their increased risk of food insecurity. This paper reports Vitamin B12 levels in a large cohort of newly arrived refugees in five Australian states and territories. METHODS: In a cross-sectional descriptive study, we collected Vitamin B12, folate and haematological indices on all refugees (n = 916; response rate 94% of eligible population) who had been in Australia for less than one year, and attended one of the collaborating health services between July 2010 and July 2011. RESULTS: 16.5% of participants had Vitamin B12 deficiency (

BACKGROUND: The vulnerability of clinical trials to volunteer bias is under-reported. Volunteer bias is systematic error due to differences between those who choose to participate in studies and those who do not. METHODS AND RESULTS: This paper extends the applications of the concept of volunteer bias by using data from a trial of probiotic supplementation for childhood atopy in healthy dyads to explore 1) differences between a) trial participants and aggregated data from publicly available databases b) participants and non-participants as the trial progressed 2) impact on trial findings of weighting data according to deprivation (Townsend) fifths in the sample and target populations. 1) a) Recruits (n = 454) were less deprived than the target population, matched for area of residence and delivery dates (n = 6,893) (mean [SD] deprivation scores 0.09[4.21] and 0.79[4.08], t = 3.44, df = 511, p

Introduction Malnutrition is a clinical condition due to the imbalance among needs, intake and use of nutrients, leading to the increase of morbidity and mortality, and to the impairment of quality of life. Even in industrialized countries undernutrition is becoming an alarming phenomenon, especially involving elderly institutionalized subjects. A multicentric study called PIMAI (Project Iatrogenic MAlnutrition in Italy), was carried out in Italy over 2005. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of malnutrition in hospitals and in nursing care homes (NH), to assess the level of nutritional attention and to measure the perceived quality in food and nutritional care. This paper represents a preliminary analysis of data collected in a NH included in the PIMAI project. Materials and methods A total of 100 subjects (29 males and 71 females, aged 80.2±10 years), were recruited from January to June 2005 at the Clinical Rehabilitation Institute “Villa delle Querce” in Nemi (Rome), among patients in the NH facility. All the participants underwent a multidimensional geriatric evaluation (considering nutritional, clinical, functional and cognitive parameters), and a survey on “perceived quality” of nutritional care. Results and discussion According to nutritional status defined by the Mini Nutritional Assessment®, data analysis showed a high prevalence of malnutrition (36%) especially related to advanced age, chewing, cognitive and functional impairments. Patients seemed to consider nutrition to be important for their health; on the other hand, they were not thoroughly satisfied with the quality of food. Particularly, it was observed scarce attention to nutritional status from medical and nursing staff. Conclusions Our study confirms the need to pay greater attention to nutritional status in elderly institutionalized subjects. Medical and nursing teams need to be aware of the importance to perform an evaluation of nutritional status in these subset of subjects.

Context Though the cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in India, little is known about the human and economic loss attributed to the disease. The aim of this paper is to account the age and sex pattern of mortality, hospitalisation and the cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases in India. Data and Methods Data for the present study has been drawn from multiple sources; 52nd and 60th rounds of the National Sample Survey, Special Survey of Death, 2001–03 and the Sample Registration System 2004–2010. Under the changing demographics and constant assumptions of mortality, hospitalisation and cost of hospitalisation, we have estimated the deaths, hospitalisation and cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases in India during 2004 to 2021. Descriptive analyses and multivariate techniques were used to understand the socio-economic differentials in cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases in India. Findings In India, the cardiovascular diseases accounted for an estimated 1.4 million deaths in 2004 and it is likely to be 2.1 million in 2021. An estimated 6.7 million people were hospitalised for cardiovascular diseases in 2004, and projected to be 10.9 million by 2021. Unlike mortality, majority of the hospitalisation due to cardiovascular diseases will be in the prime working age group (25–59). The estimated cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases was 94/− billion rupees in 2004 and expected to be 152/− billion rupees by 2021, at 2004 prices. The cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases was significantly high in private health centres, high fertility states and among high socio-economic groups. Conclusion The cardiovascular mortality and hospitalisation will be largely concentrated in the prime working age group and the cost of hospitalisation is expected to increase substantially in coming years. This calls for mobilising resources, increasing access to health insurance and devising strategies for the prevention, control and treatment of cardiovascular diseases in India.

BackgroundIncreasing active travel (primarily walking and cycling) has been widely advocated for reducing obesity levels and achieving other population health benefits. However, the strength of evidence underpinning this strategy is unclear. This study aimed to assess the evidence that active travel has significant health benefits.MethodsThe study design was a systematic review of (i) non-randomised and randomised controlled trials, and (ii) prospective observational studies examining either (a) the effects of interventions to promote active travel or (b) the association between active travel and health outcomes. Reports of studies were identified by searching 11 electronic databases, websites, reference lists and papers identified by experts in the field. Prospective observational and intervention studies measuring any health outcome of active travel in the general population were included. Studies of patient groups were excluded.ResultsTwenty-four studies from 12 countries were included, of which six were studies conducted with children. Five studies evaluated active travel interventions. Nineteen were prospective cohort studies which did not evaluate the impact of a specific intervention. No studies were identified with obesity as an outcome in adults; one of five prospective cohort studies in children found an association between obesity and active travel. Small positive effects on other health outcomes were found in five intervention studies, but these were all at risk of selection bias. Modest benefits for other health outcomes were identified in five prospective studies. There is suggestive evidence that active travel may have a positive effect on diabetes prevention, which may be an important area for future research.ConclusionsActive travel may have positive effects on health outcomes, but there is little robust evidence to date of the effectiveness of active transport interventions for reducing obesity. Future evaluations of such interventions should include an assessment of their impacts on obesity and other health outcomes.

Background This population-based cohort study has the objective to understand the sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions of patients who do not receive surgery within 18 months following an ambulatory visit to an orthopaedic surgeon. Methods Administrative healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada were linked to identify all patients making an initial ambulatory visit to orthopaedic surgeons between October 1st, 2004 and September 30th, 2005. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of not receiving surgery within 18 months. Results Of the 477,945 patients in the cohort 49% visited orthopaedic surgeons for injury, and 24% for arthritis. Overall, 79.3% did not receive surgery within 18 months of the initial visit, which varied somewhat by diagnosis at first visit (84.5% for injury and 73.0% for arthritis) with highest proportions in the 0–24 and 25–44 age groups. The distribution by income quintile of patients visiting was skewed towards higher incomes. Regression analysis for each diagnostic group showed that younger patients were significantly more likely to be non-surgical than those aged 65+ years (age 0–24: OR 3.45 95%CI 3.33–3.57; age 25–44: OR 1.30 95%CI 1.27–1.33). The odds of not getting surgery were significantly higher for women than men for injury and other conditions; the opposite was true for arthritis and bone conditions. Conclusion A substantial proportion of referrals were for expert diagnosis or advice on management and treatment. The findings also suggest socioeconomic inequalities in access to orthopaedic care. Further research is needed to investigate whether the high caseload of non-surgical cases affects waiting times to see a surgeon. This paper contributes to the development of evidence-based strategies to streamline access to surgery, and to develop models of care for non-surgical patients to optimize the use of scarce orthopaedic surgeon resources and to enhance the management of musculoskeletal disorders across the care continuum.

Background A large proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have unknown treatment outcomes and are classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU). Physical tracing of patients classified as LTFU is common; however, effects of tracing on outcomes remains unclear. The objective of this systematic review is to compare estimates of LTFU, mortality and retention in LMIC in cohorts of patients with and without physical tracing. Methods and Findings We systematically identified studies in LMIC programmatic settings using MEDLINE (2003–2011) and HIV conference abstracts (2009–2011). Studies reporting the proportion LTFU 12-months after ART initiation were included. Tracing activities were determined from manuscripts or by contacting study authors. Studies were classified as “tracing studies” if physical tracing was available for the majority of patients. Summary estimates from the 2 groups of studies (tracing and non-tracing) for LTFU, mortality, stop of ART, transfers out, and retention on ART were determined. 261 papers and 616 abstracts were identified of which 39 studies comprising 54 separate cohorts (n = 187,666) met inclusion criteria. Of those, physical tracing was available for 46% of cohorts. Treatment programs with physical tracing activities had lower estimated LTFU (7.6% vs. 15.1%; p

Background Incident reporting systems (IRS) are used to identify medical errors in order to learn from mistakes and improve patient safety in hospitals. However, IRS contain only a small fraction of occurring incidents. A more comprehensive overview of medical error in hospitals may be obtained by combining information from multiple sources. The WHO has developed the International Classification for Patient Safety (ICPS) in order to enable comparison of incident reports from different sources and institutions. Methods The aim of this paper was to provide a more comprehensive overview of medical error in hospitals using a combination of different information sources. Incident reports collected from IRS, patient complaints and retrospective chart review in an academic acute care hospital were classified using the ICPS. The main outcome measures were distribution of incidents over the thirteen categories of the ICPS classifier “Incident type”, described as odds ratios (OR) and proportional similarity indices (PSI). Results A total of 1012 incidents resulted in 1282 classified items. Large differences between data from IRS and patient complaints (PSI = 0.32) and from IRS and retrospective chart review (PSI = 0.31) were mainly attributable to behaviour (OR = 6.08), clinical administration (OR = 5.14), clinical process (OR = 6.73) and resources (OR = 2.06). Conclusions IRS do not capture all incidents in hospitals and should be combined with complementary information about diagnostic error and delayed treatment from patient complaints and retrospective chart review. Since incidents that are not recorded in IRS do not lead to remedial and preventive action in response to IRS reports, healthcare centres that have access to different incident detection methods should harness information from all sources to improve patient safety.

International audience; Introduction The objective of this study was to measure the rate of asymptomatic carriage of plasmodium in the Dakar region two years after the implementation of new strategies in clinical malaria management. Methodology Between October and December 2008, 2952 households selected in 50 sites of Dakar area, were visited for interviews and blood sampling. Giemsa-stained thick blood smears (TBS) were performed for microscopy in asymptomatic adult women and children aged 2 to 10 years. To ensure the quality of the microscopy, we performed a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with real time qPCR in all positive TBS by microscopy and in a sample of negative TBS and filter paper blood spots. Results The analysis has concerned 2427 women and 2231 children. The mean age of the women was 35.6 years. The mean age of the children was 5.4 years. The parasite prevalence was 2.01% (49/2427) in women and 2.15% (48/2231) in children. Parasite prevalence varied from one study site to another, ranging from 0 to 7.41%. In multivariate analysis, reporting a malaria episode in 2008 was associated with plasmodium carriage (OR = 2.57, P = 0.002) in women; in children, a malaria episode (OR = 6.19, P

Background There has been very little prospective research on rape perpetration among men. This paper describes the incidence and risk factors for new rape and attempted rape events among young South African men in an HIV prevention trial. Methods We followed 1,147 men aged 15–26 years who enrolled into a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the HIV prevention behavioural intervention Stepping Stones. Incidence rate ratios for factors associated with incident rape were derived from Poisson models. Results The young men reported 217 incident rapes (completed or attempted) of a girl or woman over 1,914 person years of follow up, yielding a rape incidence of 11.2 per 100 person years. Overall 24.9% of men had previously raped at baseline, and 18.9% did so during the follow up. Among the latter, 61.3% raped for the first time, and 38.7% re-offended. Multivariable Poisson modelling showed a higher incidence of rape perpetration among men who had ever used drugs (IRR 1.86 95%CI 1.39, 2.49), had eight or more lifetime partners (IRR 1.48 95% CI 1.09, 2.01), had been physically violent toward a female partner (IRR 1.50 95%CI 1.11, 2.03) and had disclosed rape perpetration at baseline (IRR 1.45 95%CI 1.07, 1.97). A lower incidence was found among those with greater resistance to peer pressure (IRR 0.85 95%CI 0.74, 0.97). Conclusions The findings highlight the importance of male gender socialisation and addressing delinquent youth sub-cultures in rape prevention. Prevention requires change in hegemonic masculinity, with its emphasis on gender hierarchy, exaggerated performance of heterosexuality and control of women. Interventions are needed to address male socialisation with delinquent peers, by reducing exposure to childhood trauma and strengthening opportunities for gainful employment (in work or recreation).

International audience; BACKGROUND: Multiple infections are common in natural host populations and interspecific parasite interactions are therefore likely within a host individual. As they may seriously impact the circulation of certain parasites and the emergence and management of infectious diseases, their study is essential. In the field, detecting parasite interactions is rendered difficult by the fact that a large number of co-infected individuals may also be observed when two parasites share common risk factors. To correct for these "false interactions", methods accounting for parasite risk factors must be used. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present paper we propose such a method for presence-absence data (i.e., serology). Our method enables the calculation of the expected frequencies of single and double infected individuals under the independence hypothesis, before comparing them to the observed ones using the chi-square statistic. The method is termed "the corrected chi-square." Its robustness was compared to a pre-existing method based on logistic regression and the corrected chi-square proved to be much more robust for small sample sizes. Since the logistic regression approach is easier to implement, we propose as a rule of thumb to use the latter when the ratio between the sample size and the number of parameters is above ten. Applied to serological data for four viruses infecting cats, the approach revealed pairwise interactions between the Feline Herpesvirus, Parvovirus and Calicivirus, whereas the infection by FIV, the feline equivalent of HIV, did not modify the risk of infection by any of these viruses. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work therefore points out possible interactions that can be further investigated in experimental conditions and, by providing a user-friendly R program and a tutorial example, offers new opportunities for animal and human epidemiologists to detect interactions of interest in the field, a crucial step in the challenge of multiple infections.

BackgroundChild survival is dependent on several factors including high vaccination coverage. Timely receipt of vaccines ensures optimal immune response to the vaccines. Yet timeliness is not usually emphasized in estimating population immunity. In addition to examining timeliness of the recommended Expanded Programme for Immunisation (EPI) vaccines, this paper identifies predictors of untimely vaccination among children aged 10 to 23 months in Kampala.MethodsIn addition to the household survey interview questions, additional data sources for variables included data collection of child's weight and length. Vaccination dates were obtained from child health cards. Timeliness of vaccinations were assessed with Kaplan-Meier time-to-event analysis for each vaccine based on the following time ranges (lowest-highest target age): BCG (birth-8 weeks), polio 0 (birth-4 weeks), three polio and three pentavalent vaccines (4 weeks-2 months; 8 weeks-4 months; 12 weeks-6 months) and measles vaccine (38 weeks-12 months). Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with vaccination timeliness.ResultsAbout half of 821 children received all vaccines within the recommended time ranges (45.6%; 95% CI 39.8-51.2). Timely receipt of vaccinations was lowest for measles (67.5%; 95% CI 60.5-73.8) and highest for BCG vaccine (92.7%: 95% CI 88.1-95.6). For measles, 10.7% (95% CI 6.8-16.4) of the vaccinations were administered earlier than the recommended time. Vaccinations that were not received within the recommended age ranges were associated with increasing number of children per woman (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR); 1.84, 95% CI 1.29-2.64), non-delivery at health facilities (AHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.02-2.46), being unmarried (AHR 1.49, 95% CI 1.15-1.94) or being in the lowest wealth quintile (AHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.11-1.72).ConclusionsStrategies to improve vaccination practices among the poorest, single, multiparous women and among mothers who do not deliver at health facilities are necessary to improve timeliness of vaccinations.

Accumulated evidence has shown that microRNAs (miRNAs) can functionally interact with a number of environmental factors (EFs) and their interactions critically affect phenotypes and diseases. Therefore, in-silico inference of disease-related miRNA-EF interactions is becoming crucial not only for the understanding of the mechanisms by which miRNAs and EFs contribute to disease, but also for disease diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. In this paper, we analyzed the human miRNA-EF interaction data and revealed that miRNAs (EFs) with similar functions tend to interact with similar EFs (miRNAs) in the context of a given disease, which suggests a potential way to expand the current relation space of miRNAs, EFs, and diseases. Based on this observation, we further proposed a semi-supervised classifier based method (miREFScan) to predict novel disease-related interactions between miRNAs and EFs. As a result, the leave-one-out cross validation has shown that miREFScan obtained an AUC of 0.9564, indicating that miREFScan has a reliable performance. Moreover, we applied miREFScan to predict acute promyelocytic leukemia-related miRNA-EF interactions. The result shows that forty-nine of the top 1% predictions have been confirmed by experimental literature. In addition, using miREFScan we predicted and publicly released novel miRNA-EF interactions for 97 human diseases. Finally, we believe that miREFScan would be a useful bioinformatic resource for the research about the relationships among miRNAs, EFs, and human diseases.

Surveillance systems tracking health patterns in animals have potential for early warning of infectious disease in humans, yet there are many challenges that remain before this can be realized. Specifically, there remains the challenge of detecting early warning signals for diseases that are not known or are not part of routine surveillance for named diseases. This paper reports on the development of a hidden Markov model for analysis of frontline veterinary sentinel surveillance data from Sri Lanka. Field veterinarians collected data on syndromes and diagnoses using mobile phones. A model for submission patterns accounts for both sentinel-related and disease-related variability. Models for commonly reported cattle diagnoses were estimated separately. Region-specific weekly average prevalence was estimated for each diagnoses and partitioned into normal and abnormal periods. Visualization of state probabilities was used to indicate areas and times of unusual disease prevalence. The analysis suggests that hidden Markov modelling is a useful approach for surveillance datasets from novel populations and/or having little historical baselines.

BACKGROUND: A decline in the national maternal mortality ratio in Nepal has been observed from surveys conducted between 1996 and 2008. This paper aims to assess the plausibility of the decline and to identify drivers of change. METHODS: National and sub-national trends in mortality data were investigated using existing demographic and health surveys and maternal mortality and morbidity surveys. Potential drivers of the variation in maternal mortality between districts were identified by regressing district-level indicators from the Nepal demographic health surveys against maternal mortality estimates. RESULTS: A statistically significant decline of the maternal mortality ratio from 539 maternal deaths to 281 per 100,000 (95% CI 91,507) live births between 1993 and 2003 was demonstrated. The sub-national changes are of similar magnitude and direction to those observed nationally, and in the terai region (plains) the differences are statistically significant with a reduction of 361 per 100,000 live births (95% CI 36,686) during the same time period. The reduction in fertility, changes in education and wealth, improvements in components of the human development index, gender empowerment and anaemia each explained more than 10% of the district variation in maternal mortality. A number of limitations in each of the data sources used were identified. Of these, the most important relate to the underestimation of numbers of deaths. CONCLUSION: It is likely that there has been a decline in Nepal's maternal mortality since 1993. This is good news for the country's sustained commitments in this area. Conclusions on the magnitude, pattern of the change and drivers of the decline are constrained by lack of data. We recommend close tracking of maternal mortality and its determinants in Nepal, attention to the communication of future estimates, and various options for bridging data gaps.

Background: There has been considerable research into the impact of chronic illness on health-related quality of life. However, few studies have assessed the impact of different chronic conditions on general quality of life (QOL). The objective of this paper was to compare general (rather than health-related) QOL and affective well-being in middle aged and older people across eight chronic illnesses.Methods and Findings: This population-based, cross-sectional study involved 11,523 individuals aged 50 years and older, taking part in wave 1 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. General QOL was assessed using the CASP-19, happiness was evaluated using two items drawn from the GHQ-12, and depression was measured with the CES-D. Analysis of covariance and logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and wealth, were performed. General QOL was most impaired in people with stroke (mean 37.56, CI 36.73-38.39), and least in those reporting cancer (mean 41.78, CI 41.12-42.44, respectively), compared with no illness (mean 44.15, CI 43.92-44.39). Stroke (mean 3.65, CI 3.58-3.73) was also associated with the greatest reduction in positive well-being whereas diabetes (mean 3.81, CI 3.76-3.86) and cancer were least affected (3.85, CI 3.79-3.91), compared with no illness (mean 3.97, CI 3.95-4.00). Depression was significantly elevated in all conditions, but was most common in chronic lung disease (OR 3.04, CI 2.56-3.61), with more modest elevations in those with osteoarthritis (OR 2.08, CI 1.84-2.34) or cancer (OR 2.07, CI 1.69-2.54). Multiple co-morbidities were associated with greater decrements in QOL and affective well-being.Conclusion: The presence of chronic illness is associated with impairments in broader aspects of QOL and affective wellbeing, but different conditions vary in their impact. Further longitudinal work is needed to establish the temporal links between chronic illness and impairments in QOL and affective well-being.

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5–14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1–4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

BackgroundStudies examining the intricate interplay between poverty, female literacy, child malnutrition, and child mortality are rare in demographic literature. Given the recent focus on Millennium Development Goals 4 (child survival) and 5 (maternal health), we explored whether the geographic regions that were underprivileged in terms of wealth, female literacy, child nutrition, or safe delivery were also grappling with the elevated risk of child mortality; whether there were any spatial outliers; whether these relationships have undergone any significant change over historical time periods.MethodologyThe present paper attempted to investigate these critical questions using data from household surveys like NFHS 1992-1993, NFHS 1998-1999 and DLHS 2002-2004. For the first time, we employed geo-spatial techniques like Moran's-I, univariate LISA, bivariate LISA, spatial error regression, and spatiotemporal regression to address the research problem. For carrying out the geospatial analysis, we classified India into 76 natural regions based on the agro-climatic scheme proposed by Bhat and Zavier (1999) following the Census of India Study and all estimates were generated for each of the geographic regions.Result/conclusionsThis study brings out the stark intra-state and inter-regional disparities in infant and under-five mortality in India over the past two decades. It further reveals, for the first time, that geographic regions that were underprivileged in child nutrition or wealth or female literacy were also likely to be disadvantaged in terms of infant and child survival irrespective of the state to which they belong. While the role of economic status in explaining child malnutrition and child survival has weakened, the effect of mother's education has actually become stronger over time.

OBJECTIVES: Coeliac disease has emerged as an increasingly recognised public health problem over the last half-century, and is now coming to be seen as a global phenomenon, despite a profound lack of globally representative epidemiological data. Since children with coeliac disease commonly present with chronic diarrhoea and malnutrition, diagnosis is often overlooked, particularly in poorer settings where children often fail to thrive and water-borne infectious diarrhoeas are common. This is the first attempt to make global estimates of the burden of coeliac disease in childhood. METHODS: We built a relatively crude model of childhood coeliac disease, incorporating estimates of population prevalence, probability of non-diagnosis, and likelihood of mortality among the undiagnosed across all countries from 1970 to 2010, based around the few available data. All our assumptions are stated in the paper and the model is available as a supplementary file. FINDINGS: Our model suggests that in 2010 there were around 2.2 million children under 5 years of age living with coeliac disease. Among these children there could be 42,000 deaths related to coeliac disease annually. In 2008, deaths related to coeliac disease probably accounted for approximately 4% of all childhood diarrhoeal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Although coeliac disease may only account for a small proportion of diarrhoeal mortality, these deaths are not preventable by applying normal diarrhoea treatment guidelines, which may even involve gluten-based food supplements. As other causes of diarrhoeal mortality decline, coeliac disease will become a proportionately increasing problem unless consideration is given to trying gluten-free diets for children with chronic diarrhoea and malnutrition.

Summary Two views exist of medical science: one emphasises discovery and explanation, the other emphasises evaluation of interventions. This essay analyses in what respects these views differ, and how they lead to opposite research hierarchies, with randomisation on top for evaluation and at bottom for discovery and explanation. The two views also differ strongly in their thinking about the role of prior specification of a research hypothesis. Hence, the essay explores the controversies surrounding subgroup analyses and multiplicity of analyses in observational research. This exploration leads to a rethinking of the universally accepted hierarchy of strength of study designs, which has the randomised trial on top: this hierarchy may be confounded by the prior odds of the research hypothesis. Finally, the strong opinions that are sometimes displayed in pitting the two types of medical science against each other may be explained by a difference in “loss function”: the difference in penalty for being wrong. A longer, more detailed version of this paper is found in supplementary Text S1.

BackgroundInfravesical obstruction leads to kidney and bladder dysfunction in a significant proportion of boys. The aim of this review is to determine the value of diagnostic tests for ascertainment of infravesical obstruction in boys.MethodologyWe searched PubMed and EMBASE databases until January 1, 2013, to identify papers that described original diagnostic accuracy research for infravesical obstruction in boys. We extracted information on (1) patient characteristics and clinical presentation of PUV and (2) diagnostic pathway, (3) diagnostic accuracy measures and (4) assessed risk of bias.Principal FindingsWe retrieved 15 studies describing various diagnostic pathways in 1,189 boys suspected for infravesical obstruction. The included studies reflect a broad clinical spectrum of patients, but all failed to present a standardised approach to confirm the presence and severity of obstruction. The risk of bias of included studies is rather high due to work-up bias and missing data.ConclusionsAs a consequence of low quality of methods of the available studies we put little confidence in the reported estimates for the diagnostic accuracy of US, VCUG and new additional tests for ruling in or ruling out infravesical obstruction. To date, firm evidence to support common diagnostic pathways is lacking. Hence, we are unable to draw conclusions on diagnostic accuracy of tests for infravesical obstruction. In order to be able to standardise the diagnostic pathway for infravesical obstruction, adequate design and transparent reporting is mandatory.