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At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 2020, China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect. This paper, based on Energy, Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (TECGE), a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China’s future macro economy. By setting up four scenarios, namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons, 10.7 billion tons, 10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030, 2027, 2025, and 2023, it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy. The findings show that, compared with the 2030 benchmark, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the higher the carbon tax prices, and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables, such as aggregate consumption, aggregate imports and exports decline, the share of the tertiary industry increases. That is, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the more macroeconomic variables decline, and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises. This paper, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect, makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become a critical issue for ensuring the sustainable development of human society. In the future, countries with greater potential for carbon reduction and advanced carbon technologies will enjoy a more favorable position in global development. The struggle for leadership and influence in the global climate change arena will intensify between developed countries such as the United States and those in Europe, the main promoter of climate change policies, and developing countries such as China. The Chinese government' s climate strategies, including goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, are currently focused on finding ways to break the impasse in this climate game between major powers. Carbon tariff policies promoted by Europe and the United States have emerged as a powerful tool in this game. This paper employs a global multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic and ecological impacts of the post-carbon tariff era on China. We consider eight possible scenarios based on the assumption that the European Union and the United States will impose carbon tariffs on imported products to meet global carbon reduction targets. The study finds that: ① The carbon tariff policies implemented by the United States and Europe have significant adverse effects on China' s GDP and welfare. Furthermore, these policies have a considerable detrimental impact on exports that are highly carbon-intensive, while their overall effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions remains limited. ② The carbon border tax policy, as applied by developed economies such as the United States and the European Union, does not have a clear effect on reducing carbon emissions and is a typical example of a 'harmful to others, unhelpful to oneself' behavior. ③ The Export Tax Rebate policy of China can to some extent alleviate the adverse impacts of the European and the United States Carbon Border Tax policies on the Chinese economy, while also potentially reducing China' s carbon emissions. ④ The Chinese government needs to be cautious in responding to the retaliatory measures of imposing carbon border taxes on Chinese imports, as they could cause more severe economic losses to China. The article proposes that China should take proactive measures to mitigate the negative impacts of carbon tariffs by implementing an export tax rebate policy. It also suggests guiding carbon-intensive export-oriented enterprises to proactively develop emission reduction plans and carbon footprint inventories, as well as enhancing clean energy technologies. In addition, China should actively achieve its 'dual carbon' goals, thereby avoiding economic suppression by developed economies such as Europe and the United States, who may use carbon tariffs as an excuse. The country should increase its R&D investment to improve its green image, while strengthening international cooperation on climate change governance and seeking a fair and just path towards reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To cope with global warming, China has promulgated Enhanced actions on climate change : China ’ s intended nationally determined contributions and will start the national carbon emissions trading market in 2017. Carbon emissions are distributed by the form of free quota and paid quota. However, few literatures have focused on how the economy and the environment would be changed by the change of free quota ratio. This paper establishes the 10 scenarios of different free quota ratio of carbon emissions rights and uses a dynamic, recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the carbon emissions trading market, to explore the relationship between free quota ratio and carbon trading price, and the impact of carbon trading scheme (ETS) on China’s economy and environment. The results show that free quota ratio will not have a direct impact on gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic and environment indicators but carbon trading prices. The prices and the rate of free payment in the current pilot cities in China are still relatively conservative. It is possible to reach emission peak, 8.21 billion ton, in 2025 and accumulative CO 2 reduction from 2017 to 2030 is 20.02 billion tons, or 59.60% of 2010 world’s total CO 2 emission. Cement, minerals, electricity and nonferrous metals under ETS will suffer great losses, so subsidy should be considered. Finally, we suggested that China should reduce the total carbon rights to increase the carbon price in 2017, and gradually reducing the proportion of free quota, from 90% in 2017 to 50% or less in 2030, by which the peak year of CO 2 emission can meet in 2025. We also suggest that ETS is an effective strategy for CO 2 reduction and the ratio should be gradually reduced in ETS to prevent violent fluctuation of carbon price in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon tax and energy tax are among the hot discussions in China. This study conducts simulation studies on them with a CGE model and analyzes their economic impacts, especially on the energy-intensive sectors. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes in different scenarios. The import and export of energy-intensive industries are changed, leading to improved domestic competitiveness. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon-energy tax reduces more emissions with relatively smaller economic costs. For China, the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant emission reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic and social costs and benefits are critical factors affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis (CEEPA) model by introducing a current energy pricing mechanism for China. The improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for China including the current energy pricing mechanism and to analyze MACs for the whole country and main abatement sectors in China under different energy pricing mechanisms. The results show that China MACs are sensitive to pricing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil. Ignoring the current regulation of these prices will lead to MAC underestimation, and price liberalization of these two energy sources could lead to a decrease in China MACs. Under a 50 % emission reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is ignored, the China MAC is underestimated by almost 16 %. Energy pricing reforms will lead to variations in sectoral abatement costs and overall abatement potential, and these impacts are projected to be large in the electricity sector. Under a 50 % reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is liberalized, MAC for the electricity sector nearly will decrease 50 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]