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The idea that mechanisms are crucially important to differentiate between genuine and spurious causal relations is ubiquitous both in the philosophical and in the social scientific literature. Yet philosophers of the social sciences have seldom attempted to spell out systematically the way in which mechanistic reasoning or evidence are concretely used to deal with spurious association and the problem of confounders in the social sciences. In this paper, we analyze two recent such accounts, proposed by Harold Kincaid and Daniel Steel. We show how these two accounts radically differ in their notion of mechanism (a process account, and a complex system account, respectively), and how this ultimately impacts in the way in which they understand the inferential role of mechanisms in the social sciences. We then confront both accounts with the details of a well-known controversy around the purportedly causal association between the legalization of abortion and the subsequent fall in criminality in the United States. We show the limitations of both accounts in representing accurately the role of mechanistic evidence and hypotheses in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Heroin use in the United States has reached epidemic proportions. The objective of this paper is to estimate the annual societal cost of heroin use disorder in the United States in 2015 US dollars. Methods: An analytic model was created that included incarceration and crime; treatment for heroin use disorder; chronic infectious diseases (HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, and Tuberculosis) and their treatments; treatment of neonatal abstinence syndrome; lost productivity; and death by heroin overdose. Results: Using literature-based estimates to populate the model, the cost of heroin use disorder was estimated to be $51.2 billion in 2015 US dollars ($50,799 per heroin user). One-way sensitivity analyses showed that overall cost estimates were sensitive to the number of heroin users, cost of HCV treatment, and cost of incarcerating heroin users. Conclusion: The annual cost of heroin use disorder to society in the United States emphasizes the need for sustained investment in healthcare and non-healthcare related strategies that reduce the likelihood of abuse and provide care and support for users to overcome the disorder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the modified Wald (MWALD) causality test to re-examine the relationship between crime and its determinants (inflation and unemployment) in the United States from 1960 to 2005. Bounds test approach is employed to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship. The empirical evidence suggests that inflation and crime rates are cointegrated with a positive relationship. Moreover, the causal link is from inflation and unemployment to crime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improving the accuracy and precision of predictive analytics for temporal trends in crime necessitates a good understanding of the how exogenous variables, such as weather and holidays, impact crime. Methods: We examine 5.7 million reported incidents of crime that occurred in the City of Chicago between 2001 to 2014. Using linear regression methods, we examine the temporal relationship of the crime incidents to weather, holidays, school vacations, day-of-week, and paydays. We correct the data for dominant sources of auto-correlation, and we then employ bootstrap methods for model selection. Importantly for the aspect of predictive analytics, we validate the predictive capabilities of our model on an independent data set; model validation has been almost universally overlooked in the literature on this subject. Results: We find significant dependence of crime on time of year, holidays, and weekdays. We find that dependence of aggressive crime on temperature depends on the hour of the day, and whether it takes place outside or inside. In addition, unusually hot/cold days are associated with unusual fluctuations upwards/downwards in crimes of aggression, respectively, regardless of the time of year. Conclusions: Including holidays, festivals, and school holiday periods in crime predictive analytics software can improve the accuracy and precision of temporal predictions. We also find that including forecasts for temperature may significantly improve short term crime forecasts for the temporal trends in many types of crime, particularly aggressive crime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine changes in cause-specific Years of Life Lost (YLL) by age, race, and sex group in the USA from 1990 to 2014. Methods: 60 million death reports from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) were categorized by age group, sex, race, and cause of death. YLL were calculated using age-specific life expectancies. Age groups were: infants <1, children 1–19, adults 20–64, and older adults 65+. Results: Blacks have historically experienced more years of life lost than whites or other racial groups in the USA. In the year 1990 the YLL per 100,000 population was 21,103 for blacks, 14,160 for whites, and 7,417 for others. Between 1990 and 2014 overall YLL in the USA improved by 10%, but with marked variations in the rate of change across age, race, and sex groups. Blacks (all ages, both sexes) showed substantial improvement with a 28% reduction in YLL, compared to whites (all ages, both sexes) who showed a 4% reduction. Among blacks, improvements were seen in all age groups: reductions of 43%, 48%, 28%, and 25% among infants, children, adults, and older adults, respectively. Among whites, reductions of 33%, 44%, and 18% were seen in infants, children, and older adults, but there was a 6% increase in YLL among white adults. YLL increased by 18% in white adult females and declined 1% in white adult males. American Indian/Alaska Native women also had worsening in YLL, with an 8% increase. Asian Pacific Islanders consistently had the lowest YLL across all ages. Whites had a higher proportion of YLL due to overdose; blacks had a higher proportion due to homicide at younger ages and to heart disease at older ages. Conclusions: Race-based disparities in YLL in the USA since 1990 have narrowed considerably, largely as a result of improvements among blacks compared to whites. Adult white and American Indian / Alaskan Native females have experienced worsening YLL, while white males have experienced essentially no change. If recent trajectories continue, adult black/white disparities in YLL will continue to narrow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research builds on three decades of effort to produce national estimates of the amount and rate of force used by law enforcement officers in the United States. Prior efforts to produce national estimates have suffered from poor and inconsistent measurements of force, small and unrepresentative samples, low survey and/or item response rates, and disparate reporting of rates of force. The present study employs data from a nationally representative survey of state and local law enforcement agencies that has a high survey response rate as well as a relatively high rate of reporting uses of force. Using data on arrests for violent offenses and the number of sworn officers to impute missing data on uses of force, we estimate a total of 337,590 use of physical force incidents among State and local law enforcement agencies during 2012 with a 95 percent confidence interval of +/- 10,470 incidents or +/- 3.1 percent. This article reports the extent to which the number and rate of force incidents vary by the type and size of law enforcement agencies. Our findings demonstrate the willingness of a large proportion of law enforcement agencies to voluntarily report the amount of force used by their officers and the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS) program to produce nationally representative information about police behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine whether investments made in public health research align with the health burdens experienced by white and black Americans. Methods: In this cross-sectional study of all deaths in the United States in 2015, we compared the distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL) across 39 causes of death by race and identified key differences. We examined the relationship between cause-of-death-specific PYLL and key indicators of public health investment (federal funding and number of publications) by race using linear spline models. We also compared the number of courses available at the top schools of public health relevant to the top causes of death contributor to PYLL for black and white Americans. Results: Homicide was the number one contributor to PYLL among black Americans, while ischemic heart disease was the number one contributor to PYLL among white Americans. Firearm-related violence accounted for 88% of black PYLL attributed to homicide and 71% of white PYLL attributed to homicide. Despite the high burden of PYLL, homicide research was the focus of few federal grants or publications. In comparison, ischemic heart disease garnered 341 grants and 594 publications. The number of public health courses available relevant to homicide (n = 9) was similar to those relevant to ischemic heart disease (n = 10). Conclusions: Black Americans are disproportionately affected by homicide, compared to white Americans. For both black and white Americans, the majority of PYLL due to homicide are firearm-related. Yet, homicide research is dramatically underrepresented in public health research investments in terms of grant funding and publications, despite available public health training opportunities. If left unchecked, the observed disproportionate distribution of investments in public health resources threatens to perpetuate a system that disadvantages black Americans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011–2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California’s drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. This result was robust to several sensitivity analyses, including a negative control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Americans’ opinions about crime and justice are more often shaped by media coverage than by scientific evidence. A prime example of this phenomenon is Arts and Entertainment (A&E) Network’sBeyond Scared Straightprogram—a show that has achieved strong ratings despite the large body of empirical evidence demonstrating the ineffectiveness of inmate–juvenile confrontation tactics. To understand the complexity of American citizens’ opinions toward this program, we conducted a qualitative analysis of the online responses to the television seriesBeyond Scared Straight. The themes that emerged center around beliefs about the effectiveness ofScared Straight, the level of brutality displayed, its inspirational and emotional content, and its authenticity. We discuss these results in terms of the need for scholars to more effectively communicate social science information concerning what does—and does not—“work” to the public and to correctional policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The impact that unbalanced sex ratios have on health and societal outcomes is of mounting contemporary concern. However, it is increasingly unclear whether it is male- or female-biased sex ratios that are associated with family and social instability. From a socio-demographic perspective, male-biased sex ratios leave many men unable to find a mate, elevating competition among males, disrupting family formation and negatively affecting social stability. In contrast, from a mating-market perspective, males are expected to be less willing to marry and commit to a family when the sex ratio is female-biased and males are rare. Here we use U.S. data to evaluate predictions from these competing frameworks by testing the relationship between the adult sex ratio and measures of family formation. We find that when women are rare men are more likely to marry, be part of a family and be sexually committed to a single partner. Our results do not support claims that male-biased sex ratios lead to negative family outcomes due to a surplus of unmarried men. Rather, our results highlight the need to pay increased attention to female-biased sex ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The New York Police Department (NYPD) under Operation Impact deployed extra police officers to high crime areas designated as impact zones. Officers were encouraged to conduct investigative stops in these areas. City officials credited the program as one of the leading causes of New York City’s low crime rate. We tested the effects of Operation Impact on reported crimes and arrests from 2004 to 2012 using a difference-in-differences approach. We used Poisson regression models to compare differences in crime and arrest counts before and after census block groups were designated as impact zones compared to census block groups in the same NYPD precincts but outside impact zones. Impact zones were significantly associated with reductions in total reported crimes, assaults, burglaries, drug violations, misdemeanor crimes, felony property crimes, robberies, and felony violent crimes. Impact zones were significantly associated with increases in total reported arrests, arrests for burglary, arrests for weapons, arrests for misdemeanor crimes, and arrests for property felony crimes. Impact zones were also significantly associated with increases in investigative stops for suspected crimes, but only the increase in stops made based on probable cause indicators of criminal behaviors were associated with crime reductions. The largest increase in investigative stops in impact zones was based on indicators of suspicious behavior that had no measurable effect on crime. The findings suggest that saturating high crime blocks with police helped reduce crime in New York City, but that the bulk of the investigative stops did not play an important role in the crime reductions. The findings indicate that crime reduction can be achieved with more focused investigative stops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We analyzed relationships between place characteristics and being HIV-negative among black, Latino, and white people who inject drugs (PWID) in the US. Methods: Data on PWID (N = 9077) were from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. Administrative data were analyzed to describe the 968 ZIP codes, 51 counties, and 19 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) where they lived. Multilevel multivariable models examined relationships between place characteristics and HIV status. Exploratory population attributable risk percents (e-PAR%s) were estimated. Results: Black and Latino PWID were more likely to be HIV-negative if they lived in less economically disadvantaged counties, or in MSAs with less criminal-justice activity (i.e., lower drug-related arrest rates, lower policing/corrections expenditures). Latino PWID were more likely to be HIV-negative in MSAs with more Latino isolation, less black isolation, and less violent crime. E-PAR%s attributed 8–19% of HIV cases among black PWID and 1–15% of cases among Latino PWID to place characteristics. Discussion: Evaluations of structural interventions to improve economic conditions and reduce drug-related criminal justice activity may show evidence that they protect black and Latino PWID from HIV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focal point of the activities of the American Prison Association is the annual congress, which took place last year in Biloxi, Mississippi, on October 21-26 and was attended by the author. The program is made up of contributions not only of the American Prison Association, but of a whole group of affiliated organizations, such as the National Probation and Parole Association, Medical Correctional Association, National Conference of Juvenile Agencies, Correctional Service Associates, etc. Thus it represents the major yearly event in the correctional field of the U.S. The participation of the American Sociological Society through its representative was duly recognized. A detailed analysis of the sessions of the congress is not intended in this purposely brief report. However, few major items should perhaps be brought out. sociological criminology, which has made outstanding contributions in the past to the development of the correctional attitude and practices in crime and delinquency control in the U.S. should continue to do so in the future.

American sentencing policy has gone through four stages in the past 50 years. Indeterminate sentencing was followed by a sentencing reform period in which policy initiatives sought to make sentencing fairer and more consistent, a tough on crime period in which initiatives sought to make sentences harsher and more certain, and the current period, which is hard to characterize. Most tough on crime initiatives remain in place, coexisting with rehabilitative and restorative programs that aim to individualize sentencing and programming. Social science evidence was influential in the second period and to a limited degree in the current period. Indeterminate sentencing was broadly compatible with prevailing utilitarian ideas about the purposes of punishment and the sentencing reform period was broadly compatible with retributive ideas. The initiatives of the tough on crime period are difficult to reconcile with any coherent set of normative ideas. Current sentencing policies are a crazy quilt, making it impossible to generalize about prevailing normative ideas or an "American system of sentencing." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses reasons why lifetime bans should be abolished for convicted felons who have completed their punishment under the criminal justice system. There are millions of ex-felons in the United States who are under no criminal supervision, but are subject to limitations on work, education, family, and civic activities. Most of the limitations are the result of concerns over the risk of the felons reoffending. Social science can calculate the risk of reoffending and it has been concluded that for many of the ex-felons, the risk is very small and that such lifetime bans are counterproductive.

This article will offer a thumbnail sketch of some of the key theoretical antecedents that have underscored the cultural analysis of crime and criminality in both the United States and Britain. It traces the origins of the 'cultural tradition', from its beginnings in turn of the 20th-century American sociology to the flowering of radical British criminology with the National Deviancy conferences of the 1960s. It will then move on to consider the contemporary resurgence of cultural criminology and its attempts to once again prioritize the experiences of everyday life within the processes of crime and criminality. It will be argued that this approach offers a more viable and effective account of crime than that currently offered by the dominant discourse of administrative criminology as favoured by Blair's New Labour approach to bureaucratic Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of criminology lacks a sense of its own history. To rectify this situation, I apply the concepts and framework of the life-course perspective to the development of criminology as a discipline. Examining criminology in the United States over the last 100 years, I discuss three eras (or life-course phases), intellectual continuities and turning points in the field. My thesis is that if we knew our history, we would realize that ideas about crime matter. I offer a revised version on how to view criminology and in doing so address the theme of the 2003 annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, "The Challenge of Practice, the Benefits of Theory." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies have found evidence of a connection between race and crime in the minds of many white Americans, but several gaps remain in our knowledge of this association. Here, a multimethod approach was used to examine more closely the racial component of whites' support for ostensibly race-neutral crime policies. Conventional correlational analysis showed that negative stereotypes of African Americans—specifically, the belief that blacks are violent and lazy—are an important source of support for punitive policies such as the death penalty and longer prison terms. A survey experiment further showed that negative evaluations of black prisoners are much more strongly tied to support for punitive policies than are negative evaluations of white prisoners. These findings suggest that when many whites think of punitive crime policies to deal with violent offenders, they are thinking of black offenders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although a number of perspectives have been represented as frameworks for analyzing crime and violence perpetuated by African Americans, no analysis can replace a socio-historical perspective. By carefully studying the works of W.E.B. Du Bois a sharper analysis of black crime and violence can be clearly delineated. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the "racial invariance assumption" remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socioeconomic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The normative erosion hypothesis is that nonpunitive reactions by legal officials will erode offenders' normative evaluations of delinquency. Consistent with the hypothesis, survey data from Arizona high school students show that offenders who have been referred to a "hands-off" court express less condemnation (i.e., have lower perceived seriousness) of delinquency than do offenders with no court referrals. The findings also show that the perceived threat of legal punishment is positively related to offenders' perceptions of the seriousness of delinquency. The findings bear on the normative validation thesis in the sociology of law and have important policy implications for juvenile justice practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, much attention has been focused on the structural determinants of variations in crime rates across U.S. cities. Virtually all research in this area has utilized aggregate reported offense rates as the dependent variable. While it provides a good indicator of the total volume of crime, the aggregate crime rate suffers two major disadvantages-it obscures individual- and aggregate-level effects, and it does not allow testing of criminological theory which specifies differential effects of economic variables (for example, poverty, inequality) on offending rates for various population subgroups (for example, black adults, white adults). The present study addresses these issues by examining the economic determinants of age, race, and crime-specific offending rates for a sample of the nation `s largest cities. The overall results suggest that income inequality has a direct positive effect on black offending rates for serious crime, whereas black poverty has no effect In contrast, white poverty has positive effects on while violence, while inequality significantly increases white robbery and burglary. The implications of findings for recent theoretical developments of conflict and relative deprivation theory are assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students of delinquency, preoccupied with subcultural and value conflict theories, have recently produced fewer ecological studies. However, for the much-needed task of assessing the cross-cultural applicability of contemporary delinquency theories, ecological studies need to be conducted in other cultures to indicate where delinquency occurs and among whom. Ecological data are presented on juvenile offenders and their offenses from Cordoba, Argentina. These are discussed against a background of United States studies and implications are drawn concerning delinquency theory. In general, the ecology of delinquency in this Latin-American urban setting shows characteristics precluding the uncritical application of current delinquency theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]