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This policy brief presents key messages, findings and recommendations for the transport sector.

This report is a continuation of the work that has been described in D 2.1 “Report on energy efficiency potentials in the transport sector”. These two deliverables provide key insights about the EU-28 transport sector and form the basis of the quantification of synergies among all sectors. This report is mainly focused on the quantified assessment of different energy efficiency scenarios for the EU-28 transport sector in 2050. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the methodology ofanalysis; followed by a detailed explanation of the methodology behind creating an EU 28 transport baseline and energy efficiency transport scenarios. This chapter also details the workings of the AAU’s scenario modeling tool TransportPLAN used for the analysis. In addition, it also describes the work done for creating different future energy efficiency scenarios including the calculations performed for alternative growth rates and modal shift rates. Finally, the results are presented in Chapter 3 and a short note on discussions and recommendations is provided in Chapter 4.

The provision of heat and electricity are for many citizens, small shops and enterprises a concern when paying the bills but are at the same time not something that they easily understood and approached in technical terms. Neither is the current need for a transition toward a renewable based integrated and flexible energy system well understood though the icons of renewable energy such as wind turbines, solar cells and heat pumps often are well known and supported. The involvement of local heating managers and dwellers and the change of everyday practices is at the same time crucial to reach the goals for energy savings.The project: Energy Forum Sydhavn has the purpose of making energy savings and transitions become real beyond the actual results from energy renovations of buildings. In projects involving utilities, building owners, operators, tenants, shops and companies including also technology providers we set targets and organize socio-technical change agendas and structure project that make these changes become real. In the project, we operate with concepts for how to involve actors and how to configure topics, goals and actor constellations.This is reflected in the energy systems transition literature with the focus on local, engaged ownership as well as cities and regions as drivers of a new wave of change. At the same the organizational obstacles, the existing energy institutions routines and practices and a lot of visionary window dressing from the side of city and government authorities tend to reduce the real impact of the transition. This is often even hidden behind attempts to recruit citizens and politicians to trust in short term market based solutions and privatization. While the ideal type sustainable energy transition is well outlined in models of future renewable energy bases societies the transition processes include controversies and a continued need to change the visions and actor constellations that drive the transition. The provision of heat and electricity are for many citizens, small shops and enterprises a concern when paying the bills but are at the same time not something that they easily understood and approached in technical terms. Neither is the current need for a transition toward a renewable based integrated and flexible energy system well understood though the icons of renewable energy such as wind turbines, solar cells and heat pumps often are well known and supported. The involvement of local heating managers and dwellers and the change of everyday practices is at the same time crucial to reach the goals for energy savings.The project: Energy Forum Sydhavn has the purpose of making energy savings and transitions become real beyond the actual results from energy renovations of buildings. In projects involving utilities, building owners, operators, tenants, shops and companies including also technology providers we set targets andorganize socio-technical change agendas and structure project that make these changes become real. In the project, we operate with concepts for how to involve actors and how to configure topics, goals and actor constellations.This is reflected in the energy systems transition literature with the focus on local, engaged ownership as well as cities and regions as drivers of a new wave of change. At the same the organizational obstacles, the existing energy institutions routines and practices and a lot of visionary window dressing from the side of city and government authorities tend to reduce the real impact of the transition. This is often even hidden behind attempts to recruit citizens and politicians to trust in short term market based solutions and privatization. While the ideal type sustainable energy transition is well outlined in models of futurerenewable energy bases societies the transition processes include controversies and a continued need to change the visions and actor constellations that drive the transition.

[Abstract] This working paper presents the TRANSIT open-access online database on Critical Turning Points (CTP) in Transformative Social Innovation. It specifies the contents of the database, comprising qualitative accounts of more than 450 ‘critical’ episodes in the evolution of social innovation initiatives in 27 different countries. Providing the theoretical-methodological context to these data, the paper also describes the theoretical background of the CTP concept and the methodology though which the CTP accounts have been reconstructed through interviews with members of SI initiatives. The paper concludes with reflections on the open access CTP database as a knowledge infrastructure, discussing its significance in terms of mapping, dissemination and framing of social innovation. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613169

A previous version of this paper has been part of TRANSIT Deliverable 3.3 (July 2016), the second prototype of TSI theory. [Abstract] This working paper presents a set of propositions about the agency and dynamics of transformative social innovation (TSI) that have been developed as part of an EU-funded research project entitled “TRANsformative Social Innovation Theory” (TRANSIT; 2014-2017). These TSI propositions represent first steps towards the development of a new theory of TSI, taking the form of proto-explanations of the agency and dynamics of TSI, based on the bringing together of our empirical observations on TSI and the project's theoretical reviews and theoretical framings. Ideally this working paper should be read in conjunction with the working paper entitled “A framework for transformative social innovation” (Haxeltine et al 2016) which presents in skeletal terms the theoretical and conceptual framing of TSI developed in the TRANSIT project. This TSI framework builds on sustainability transition studies, social innovation research, social psychology studies of empowerment and other several other areas of social theory to deliver a bespoke theoretical and conceptual framework that is grounded in a relational ontology and which is being employed as a platform for the development of a middle-range theory of TSI. Next we provide a very brief overview of some key elements of the framework, in particular how we conceptualise social innovation, transformative change, and transformative social innovation. Propositions were developed for each of four relational dimensions implied by the TSI framework with also a brief statement of the topic addressed by each of the twelve propositions. This article is based on research carried out as part of the Transformative Social Innovation Theory (“TRANSIT”) project, which is funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) under grant agreement 613169

This working paper presents a set of propositions about the agency and dynamics oftransformative social innovation (TSI)that have been developed as part of an EU-funded research project entitled “TRANsformative Social Innovation Theory” (TRANSIT; 2014-2017). These TSI propositions represent first steps towards the development of a new theory of TSI, taking the form of proto-explanations of the agency and dynamics of TSI, based on the bringing together of our empirical observations on TSI (Jørgensen et al. 2016) and our theoretical reviews and theoretical framings (Haxeltine et al 2016).

This chapter explores the future of technical networks from the perspective of local aspirations for sustainable forms of flow management as expressed by LA21 initiatives. LA21 has been selected because it is oriented to local planning and development, calling on local authorities to develop plans to pursue the objectives and measures laid down in the Agenda 21 document at a municipal level in a consultative process with local people and institutions. Furthermore, this document expressly targets energy, water and waste issues as key policy fields for the sustainable management of natural resources, identifying the need to 'modernize existing power systems to raise energy efficiency and develop new and renewable energy sources', to 'protect the integrity of aquatic ecosystems' and to 'minimize the creation of waste, and to ensure that wastes are re-used, recycled and safely collected and treated' (Keating, 1993).

Parts 2 and 3 examined recent changes in the way technical networks are managed from an infrastructure perspective, that is, from the viewpoint of network managers and others directly engaged in providing or using utility services. A distinctive feature of the forces currently transforming urban network management is that they have emerged from outside the sphere of local planning. The changes documented earlier are not the product of local planning or policy making but of other factors such as new regulatory frameworks, changing patterns of resource use or new technologies.

This section has explored the contribution and response of local environmental planning to the new logic of infrastructure management emerging in response to regulatory, commercial and technological changes. Three case studies have documented in different ways how these shifts in infrastructure management are being reflected and considered in the arena of local planning, from formalized activities of spatial or sectoral planning to Local Agenda 21 initiatives. Focusing on the issue of interconnectedness between local environmental planning and infrastructure management, the section has identified how and why connection is currently limited, what new opportunities for linkage are emerging under the new conditions and what knowledge is necessary to improve linkage to the benefit of urban environmental performance in the future.

The INFORSE case consists of an analysis of the transnational network INFORSE (International Network for Sustainable Energy), the Danish local initiative VE and the Belgian local initiative APERe. All three are dealing with renewable energy and energy savings. The link between INFORSE and VE is strong, whereas there is almost no contact between INFORSE and its Belgian member APERe. The three parts are summarised in the following. This is followed by a short summarising conclusion concering what we learn about how social innovation interacts with other forms of transformative change from the INFORSE case.

Kort beskrivelse af København som 'Smart Energy Region', del af COST Action TU1104

This paper presents a comparative socio-technical discourse analysis of WUSD for Melbourne and Copenhagen. Despite Melbourne appearing to have progressed further, the technology pathways are very similar, suggesting significant potential for transfer of insights and policy mechanisms. However, there are some fundamental differences in the underpinning ontology of WUSD policy makers and pratitioners, which provides more nuanced insights into how best to apapt the knowledge transfer process. This paper presents a comparative socio-technical discourse analysis of WUSD for Melbourne and Copenhagen. Despite Melbourne appearing to have progressed further, the technology pathways are very similar, suggesting significant potential for transfer of insights and policy mechanisms. However, there are some fundamental differences in the underpinning ontology of WUSD policy makers and pratitioners, which provides more nuanced insights into how best to apapt the knowledge transfer process.

In the last decade, due to climate change impacts, increasing urban development, increased stress on natural resource and gradual aging of the technical infrastructure on place, the Danish urban water sector has realized the need to invest more generously on the optimization of technical performances and the innovation of management approaches in favor of non-structural measure and more integrated perspectives. On one hand, municipal plans have put an increasing attention on terms like urban livability, resilience and sustainability mostly resulting on an increasing focus on the need to create green and blue recreational spaces in the city-scape. On the other hand, in a context of economic downturn, national strategies aim at promoting the eco-innovation of the water sectors to support the Danish water industry competitiveness in the international market and create new jobs nationally. At the same time, a series of institutional changes were actuated: in 2007, reforming local government structures and redistributing environmental policy planning responsibilities at the local and national scale and, in 2009, formalized a first step toward the liberalization of water utilities in order to regulate water prizes by creating a benchmarking system to set precise terms for a national competition on water service efficiency. The expectations were increased capacity for municipality to regulate and water utilities to actuate the necessary investments and lower or more homogenous water taxation for users. Such cascade of changes was expected to contribute to destabilize the Danish urban water regime, preparing for the acceleration phase of a radical socio-technical transition towards more integrated approaches to urban water management. However, using the MLP as analytical lens along a 100 years timespan, the urban water regime seems to have experienced a sequence of transformation pathways characterized primarily by the reorganization of regime actors, who appear to be very fast in responding to external pressures and thus favoring only incremental niches to emerge and stabilize. But, if the same transformations are placed in a co-evolving urban context, we observed that the water regime has largely contributed to radical changes at the urban scale. By undertaking such a broader perspective, we found increasingly relevant the role of power, politics and agency in advancing or hindering urban transitions. Furthermore, we found very useful the concept of multi-regime interactions to better characterize the influence of co-evolving regimes and the consideration of geographical and spatial scales to analyze the existing tensions between national strategies and municipal plans in a complex process of urban transformation. We concluded that the transition of the urban water regime is still ongoing and it will depends on the ability of internal, external actors and intermediaries to develop a shared and more holistic understanding and definition of problems and needs to co-create a path which could contribute to “better” urban futures.

This publication summarises the activities of the COST C23 Action entitled ‘Strategies for a Low Carbon Urban Built Environments (LCUBE)’ which took place over the period 2004 to 2009. This publication is supported by COST. The main objective of the COST C23 Action was to investigate, through a network of nineteen countries across Europe, ‘how carbon reductions can be achieved through appropriate design and management of the urban built environment’. This involved investigating the built environment at building and urban scale, focusing on minimising energy use and associated carbon dioxide emissions. The Action investigated how nineteen EU member states were active in reducing carbon dioxide levels in the built environment, not only in line with buildings meeting the requirements of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) (1), but also in taking standards further and looking at how national and regional planning initiatives are being developed to reduce the energy use of urban areas. A collection of case studies was compiled to illustrate the development and implementation of low carbon strategies at urban and building scales.

This report studies the preferences of house owners and tenants in Stenløse Syd (Stenløse Syd) - a new urban development project with low energy dwellings. The aim of the study has been to create more knowledge about aspects that may promote or hamper low energy dwellings in order to develop the mar-ket for this type of buildings. The report is a delivery of work package 1 in the European Concerto project called ‘Class 1’. This project was launched on the basis of the experiences of the Danish municipality of Egedal who initiated an urban development project explicitly promoting energy efficient buildings. The main focus of the study is the target groups that these dwellings have appealed to, and it reports on basic demographic and socio-economic features of the residents as well as their set of motivations to buy/rent a dwelling in this particular settlement, including the importance of the low energy perspective. The report concludes that the residents generally are very positive towards low energy dwellings, and the low energy requirements posed in Stenløse Syd do not per se seem to discourage any potential buyers. However, the survey also concludes that the environment is just one aspect of choosing a dwelling, and for most residents the environment is not the most important. Therefore the report argues that environmental perspectives by themselves do not work as a motivating factor for most people. Another important point is that the clients develop knowledge and competences about the environment during the building process. The report confirms the complexity of residents’ preferences in relation to their choice of dwelling and to the patterns of moving, and draws some interesting pictures of role of environmental aspects. As this has not been the focus of many investigations, hopefully this report will contribute to the knowledge basis about user preferences and further inspire national and European authorities and other stakeholders on how to support low energy dwellings.

This paper looks into the challenge of actually implementing energy efficient technologies and concepts in mainstream new build. The aim of the paper is to point out some of the provisos of promoting low-energy buildings on mainstream market terms, emphasising the need to understand forces working against implementation of low-energy buildings. The study is based on actor-network theory, emphasising the relations and struggles that form the basis for pushing for low-energy buildings. The paper is based on a case study of the proactive attempt of a Danish municipality to force through an actual implementation of strict energy performance requirements in mainstream building. The paper describes how the municipality of Egedal experienced a collapse in regulation for low-energy buildings and what struggles it had to take on in order to convince the mainstream building industry and their customers to implement energy efficient technologies and concepts in the municipal urban development project. In conclusion, the paper underlines that even incremental steps towards more energy efficient buildings require setting up of the appropriate frames, establishing the necessary network, mediating actors to enrol and support innovative thinking.

The paper discusses how to promote the use of decision support tools for urban sustainable development. The interest in decision support tools based on indicators is increasing among practitioners and researchers. The research has so far focused on indicator types and systems of indicators and goals for urban sustainability whereas less focus has been on the context of implementation and even less on what we can learn from practical experiences about the usefulness of urban sustainable indicator tools. This paper explores the practical implementation of urban sustainable management tools. It is generally agreed that in order to make indicators and other sustainability management tools work it is necessary that they are integrated in the relevant urban organisational levels, in a way that creates commitment to the subsequent goals. This includes involvement of organisations, individuals and other urban actors around indicators, goals and actions for sustainable urban development across organizational levels. Hence the key question is how to implement urban sustainable management tools in urban management gaining validity from an expert perspective as well as a lay-man perspective. The paper points to the importance of intermediary actors as bridge-builders between municipal administration, citizens and infrastructure bodies, and their role in anchoring the tool in the local context. We use the Ecological Modernisation as a frame for understanding the need for tools and the development of intermediary actors. The paper is based on the Danish part of the PETUS-project (Practical Evaluation of Urban Sustainability) and the INTERMEDIARY-project (New intermediary services and the transformation of urban water supply and waste water disposal systems in Europe). Further the paper draws on Danish experiences with urban sustainable management tools. The experiences rank from simple approaches of municipalities publishing indicators or green accounts, to more advanced approaches of urban sustainability integrated in environmental management systems.

The departing point for this paper is that we do not know what a sustainable city is. The present situation is characterised be small demonstration projects and strategies for urban sustainable development that are not coherent. The modern city can be viewed as a complex technological system. The urban infrastructure, the buildings and their users interact in numerous and increasingly complex ways. The paper analyses some of the challenges cities meet in their quest for sustainability: Lack of awareness and ethics; Lack of tools for decision making; Lack of models for sustainable urban management; Lack of diffusion of innovations; The momentum of existing infrastructure; Counteracting trends in the development of modern society and the need for reinventing planning.

As part of work package 2 of the sEEnergies project, transport data has been collected for 28 European countries. This includes transport activity demand data, transport specific energy consumptions, load factors and capacity for different modes of transport. The major source of data are the European National Travel Surveys. The data is categorized based on distance bands for each mode, both for passenger and freight. This is done for all EU-28 countries in a bottom up manner. The data is then combined together via weighted average to calculate the overall EU-28 transport activity and transport energy demand for the reference year (2017). A baseline is created following the same transport growth rates as used in the European PRIMES model. On top of the baseline, along with the results from Deliverable 2.1, calculations are performed to estimate the demand reductions and modal shifts based on energy efficient urban spatial and infrastructure development for the future.These energy efficiency practices are then combined with four energy efficiency transport technology scenarios for the future.

The sEEnergies project is based on the concept of Energy Efficiency First Principle and is aimed at the identification of energy efficiency potentials on which the future European energy system should be designed. In two earlier deliverables (D2.1 and D2.3), the energy savings of the Energy-efficiency scenario compared to a business-as-usual trajectory have been assessed. The present deliverable, D2.4, discusses additional environmental and social impacts of the measures included in the Energy-efficiency scenario. For each impact category, the causal mechanisms producing the impact are briefly described. For some of the impacts, quantitative assessments of the impacts compared to a business-as-usual trajectory have also been made. However, for most impact categories, only qualitative descriptions have been possible.

As part of work package 2 of the sEEnergies project, transport data has been collected for 28 European countries. This includes transport activity demand data, transport specific energy consumptions, load factors and capacity for different modes of transport. The major source of data are the European National Travel Surveys. The data is categorized based on distance bands for each mode, both for passenger and freight. This is done for all EU-28 countries in a bottom up manner. The data is then combined together via weighted average to calculate the overall EU-28 transport activity and transport energy demand for the reference year (2017). A baseline is created following the same transport growth rates as used in the European PRIMES model. On top of the baseline, along with the results from Deliverable 2.1, calculations are performed to estimate the demand reductions and modal shifts based on energy efficient urban spatial and infrastructure development for the future.These energy efficiency practices are then combined with four energy efficiency transport technology scenarios for the future.

The sEEnergies project is based on the concept of Energy Efficiency First Principle and is aimed at the identification of energy efficiency potentials on which the future European energy system should be designed. In two earlier deliverables (D2.1 and D2.3), the energy savings of the Energy-efficiency scenario compared to a business-as-usual trajectory have been assessed. The present deliverable, D2.4, discusses additional environmental and social impacts of the measures included in the Energy-efficiency scenario. For each impact category, the causal mechanisms producing the impact are briefly described. For some of the impacts, quantitative assessments of the impacts compared to a business-as-usual trajectory have also been made. However, for most impact categories, only qualitative descriptions have been possible.