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Abstract The South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) bears significant importance for agriculture, water resources, economy, and environmental aspects of the region for nearly 2 billion people. To minimize the adverse impacts of global warming, Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) has been proposed to lower surface temperatures by reflecting a portion of solar radiation back into space. However, the effects of SAI on SAM are still very uncertain. Our study identifies the main drivers leading to a reduction in the mean and extreme summer monsoon precipitation under SAI. These include SAI-induced lower stratospheric warming and the associated weakening of the northern hemispheric subtropical jet, changes in the upper-tropospheric wave activities, geopotential height anomalies, a reduction in the strength of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone, and, to some degree, local dust changes. As the interest in SAI research grows, our results demonstrate the urgent need to further understand SAM variability under different SAI scenarios.

Abstract In this work, we apply the GFDL Earth System Model (GFDL‐ESM4.1) to explore the climate responses to a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) scenario that aims to restrict global warming to 2.0°C above pre‐industrial levels (1850–1900) under the CMIP6 overshoot scenario (SSP5‐34‐OS). Simulations of this SAI scenario with the CESM Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM2‐WACCM6) showed nearly unchanged interhemispheric and pole‐to‐Equator surface temperature gradients relative to present‐day conditions around 2020, and reduced global impacts, such as heatwaves, sea ice melting, and shifting precipitation patterns (Tilmes et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd‐11‐579‐2020). However, model structural uncertainties can lead to varying climate projections under the same forcing. Implementing identical stratospheric aerosol radiative properties in GFDL‐ESM4.1, which has a much lower Effective Climate Sensitivity compared to CESM2‐WACCM6, resulted in a decrease in global‐mean surface temperature by more than 1.5°C and a corresponding reduction in precipitation responses. Two major reasons contribute to the different temperature response between the two models: first, GFDL‐ESM4.1 has less warming in the SSP534‐OS scenario; second, GFDL‐ESM4.1 has shown more pronounced cooling in response to the same stratospheric AOD perturbation. Notably, the Southern Hemisphere experiences substantial cooling compared to the Northern Hemisphere, accompanied by a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Furthermore, our analysis reveals that spatially heterogeneous forcing within the SAI scenario results in diverse climate feedback parameters in the GFDL‐ESM4.1 model, through varying surface warming/cooling patterns. This research highlights the importance of considering model structural uncertainties and forcing spatial patterns for a comprehensive evaluation of future scenarios and geoengineering strategies.

Abstract Following the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruption in January 2022, stratospheric ozone depletion was observed at Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes and over Antarctica during the 2022 austral wintertime and springtime, respectively. The eruption injected sulfur dioxide and unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere. This work examines the chemistry contribution of the volcanic materials to ozone depletion using chemistry‐climate model simulations with nudged meteorology. Simulated 2022 ozone and nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) anomalies show good agreement with satellite observations. We find that chemistry yields up to 4% ozone destruction at mid‐latitudes near ∼70 hPa in August and up to 20% ozone destruction over Antarctica near ∼80 hPa in October. Most of the ozone depletion is attributed to internal variability and dynamical changes forced by the eruption. Both the modeling and observations show a significant NOx reduction associated with the HTHH aerosol plume, indicating enhanced dinitrogen pentoxide hydrolysis on sulfate aerosol.

Abstract Sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) can cool the climate, but also heats the tropical lower stratosphere if done with injections at low latitudes. We explore the role of this heating in the climate response to SAI, by using mechanistic experiments that remove the effects of longwave absorption of sulfate aerosols above the tropopause. If longwave absorption by stratospheric aerosols is disabled, the heating of the tropical tropopause and most of the related side effects are strongly alleviated and the cooling per Tg‐S injected is 40% bigger. Such side‐effects include the poleward expansion of eddy‐driven jets, acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, and delay of Antarctic ozone recovery. Our results add to other recent findings on SAI side effects and demonstrate that SAI scenarios with low‐latitude injections of absorptive materials may result in atmospheric effects and regional climate changes that are comparable to those produced by the CO2 warming signal.

Abstract Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) is proposed to offset global warming; however, the use of this approach can an impact on the hydrological cycle. We used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (G3 simulation) to analyze the impacts of SAG on precipitation (P) and to determine its responsible causes in West Africa and Sahel region. CMIP5 historical data were first validated, the results obtained are consistent with observational data. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP4.5, a slight increase is found in the West Africa Region relative to present‐day climate. The dynamic processes especially, the monsoon shifts are responsible for this precipitation change. Under RCP4.5, during the monsoon period, reductions in P are 0.86%, 0.80% relative to the present‐day climate in the Northern and Southern Sahel, respectively, while precipitation is increased by 1.04% in the West African Region. Under SAG, we find a 3.71% decrease of precipitation in the West African Region while the precipitation decrease is 17.4% and 8.47% respectively in the North Sahel and South Sahel. This decrease in monsoon precipitation is mainly explained by changes in dynamics, which lead to weakened monsoon circulation and a shift in the distribution of monsoon precipitation. This result suggests that SAG deployment to balance all warming can be harmful to rainfall in WAR if the amount of SO2 to be injected into this tropical area is not taken into consideration.

Abstract The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the atmosphere and surface climate depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. We use a set of CESM2(WACCM6) SAI simulations achieving three different levels of global mean surface cooling and demonstrate that unlike some direct surface climate impacts driven by the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in the high latitude circulation and ozone are more complex and could be non‐linear. This manifests in our simulations by disproportionally larger Antarctic springtime ozone loss, significantly larger intra‐ensemble spread of the Arctic stratospheric jet and ozone responses, and non‐linear impacts on the extratropical modes of surface climate variability under the strongest‐cooling SAI scenario compared to the weakest one. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI.

Large amounts of water vapour released to the stratosphere during the 2022 Hunga-Tonga hydromagmatic volcanic eruption led to decreased sulfur dioxide aerosol lifetime, increased sulfate particle size and a doubling of stratospheric aerosol optical depth, according to numerical simulations.

Abstract Model intercomparison studies often report a large spread in simulation results, but quantifying the causes of these differences is hindered by the fact that several processes contribute to the model spread simultaneously. Here we use the Multi‐Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA) version 0 to investigate the model resolution dependencies of simulated chemical species, with a focus on the differences between global uniform grid and regional refinement grid simulations with the same modeling framework. We construct two global (ne30 [∼112 km] and ne60 [∼56 km]) and two regional refinement grids over Korea (ne30x8 [∼14 km] and ne30x16 [∼7 km]). The grid resolution can change chemical concentrations by an order of magnitude in the boundary layer, and the importance increases as the species' reactivity increases (e.g., up to 50% and 1,000% changes for ethane and xylenes, respectively). The diurnal cycle of oxidants (OH, O3, and NO3) also varies with the grid resolution, which leads to different oxidation pathways of volatile organic compounds (e.g., the fraction of monoterpenes reacting with NO3 in Seoul around midnight is 90% for ne30, but 65% for ne30x16). The models with high‐resolution grids usually do a better job at reproducing aircraft observations during the KORUS‐AQ campaign, but not always, implying compensating errors in the coarse grid simulations. For example, ozone is better reproduced by the coarse grid due to the artificial mixing of NOx. When developing new chemical mechanisms and evaluating models over urban areas, the uncertainties associated with model resolution should be considered.

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) of reflective sulfate aerosols has been proposed to temporarily reduce the impacts of global warming. In this study, we compare two SAI simulations which inject at different altitudes to provide the same amount of cooling, finding that lower‐altitude SAI requires 64% more injection. SAI at higher altitudes cools the surface more efficiently per unit injection than lower‐altitude SAI through two primary mechanisms: the longer lifetimes of SO2 and SO4 at higher altitudes, and the water vapor feedback, in which lower‐altitude SAI causes more heating in the tropical cold point tropopause region, thereby increasing water vapor transport into the stratosphere and trapping more terrestrial infrared radiation that offsets some of the direct aerosol‐induced cooling. We isolate these individual mechanisms and find that the contribution of lifetime effects to differences in cooling efficiency is approximately five to six times larger than the contribution of the water vapor feedback.

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) impacting western North America are analyzed under climate intervention applying stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) using simulations produced by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. Sulfur dioxide injections are strategically placed to maintain present-day global, interhemispheric, and equator-to-pole surface temperatures between 2020 and 2100 using a high forcing climate scenario. Three science questions are addressed: (1) How will western North American ARs change by the end of the century with SAI applied, (2) How is this different from 2020 conditions, and (3) How will the results differ with no future climate intervention. Under SAI, ARs are projected to increase by the end of the 21st century for southern California and decrease in the Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, following changes to the low-level wind. Compared to 2020 conditions, the increase in ARs is not significant. The character of AR precipitation changes under geoengineering results in fewer extreme rainfall events and more moderate ones.

Abstract Nitrate aerosol plays an important role in affecting regional air quality as well as Earth's climate. However, it is not well represented or even neglected in many global climate models. In this study, we couple the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) in DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) to simulate nitrate aerosol and its radiative effects. We find that nitrate aerosol simulated by E3SMv2‐MAM4‐MOSAIC is sensitive to the treatment of gaseous HNO3 transfer to/from interstitial particles related to accommodation coefficients of HNO3 (αHNO3) on dust and non‐dust particles. We compare three different treatments of HNO3 transfer: (a) a treatment (MTC_SLOW) that uses a low αHNO3 in the mass transfer coefficient (MTC) calculation; (b) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment (MTC_WGT) that uses a high αHNO3 on non‐dust particles; and (c) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment that also splits coarse mode aerosols into the coarse dust and sea salt sub‐modes in MOSAIC (MTC_SPLC). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC increase the global annual mean (2005–2014) nitrate burden from 0.096 (MTC_SLOW) to 0.237 and 0.185 Tg N, respectively, mostly in the coarse mode. MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC also produce stronger nitrate direct radiative forcing (−0.048 and −0.051 W m−2, respectively) and indirect forcing (−0.33 and −0.35 W m−2, respectively) than MTC_SLOW (−0.021 and −0.24 W m−2). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC improve nitrate surface concentrations over remote oceans based on limited observations and vertical profiles of nitrate concentrations against aircraft measurements below 400 hPa.

Abstract The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871–2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

Abstract A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM‐chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM‐chem‐SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM‐chem‐SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM‐chem‐SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi‐Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0). Here, MUSICAv0 is evaluated and used to better understand how horizontal resolution and chemical complexity impact ozone and ozone precursors over CONUS as compared to measurements from five aircraft campaigns, which occurred in 2013. This field campaign analysis demonstrates the importance of using finer horizontal resolution to accurately simulate ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. In general, the impact of using more complex chemistry on ozone and other oxidation products is more pronounced when using finer horizontal resolution where a larger number of chemical regimes are resolved. Large model biases for ozone near the surface remain in the Southeast US as compared to the aircraft observations even with updated chemistry and finer horizontal resolution. This suggests a need for adding the capability of replacing sections of global emission inventories with regional inventories, increasing the vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer, and reducing model biases in meteorological variables such as temperature and clouds.

Abstract Using the CAM‐chem Model, we simulate the response of chemical species in the free troposphere to scenarios of primary pollutant emission reductions during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Zonally averaged ozone in the free troposphere during Northern Hemisphere spring and summer is found to be 5%–15% lower than 19‐yr climatological values, in good agreement with observations. About one third of this anomaly is attributed to the reduction scenario of air traffic during the pandemic, another third to the reduction scenario of surface emissions, the remainder to 2020 meteorological conditions, including the exceptional springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion. For the combined emission reductions, the overall COVID‐19 reduction in northern hemisphere tropospheric ozone in June is less than 5 ppb below 400 hPa, but reaches 8 ppb at 250 hPa. In the Southern Hemisphere, COVID‐19 related ozone reductions by 4%–6% were masked by comparable ozone increases due to other changes in 2020.

Abstract An advanced aerosol treatment, with a focus on semivolatile nitrate formation, is introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with interactive chemistry (CAM5‐chem) by coupling the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) with the 7‐mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7). An important feature of MOSAIC is dynamic partitioning of all condensable gases to the different fine and coarse mode aerosols, as governed by mode‐resolved thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemical reactions. Applied in the free‐running mode from 1995 to 2005 with prescribed historical climatological conditions, the model simulates global distributions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in good agreement with observations and previous studies. Inclusion of nitrate resulted in ∼10% higher global average accumulation mode number concentrations, indicating enhanced growth of Aitken mode aerosols from nitrate formation. While the simulated accumulation mode nitrate burdens are high over the anthropogenic source regions, the sea‐salt and dust modes respectively constitute about 74% and 17% of the annual global average nitrate burden. Regional clear‐sky shortwave radiative cooling of up to −5 W m−2 due to nitrate is seen, with a much smaller global average cooling of −0.05 W m−2. Significant enhancements in regional cloud condensation nuclei (at 0.1% supersaturation) and cloud droplet number concentrations are also attributed to nitrate, causing an additional global average shortwave cooling of −0.8 W m−2. Taking into consideration of changes in both longwave and shortwave radiation under all‐sky conditions, the net change in the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes induced by including nitrate aerosol is −0.7 W m−2.

Abstract The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) includes a detailed representation of chemistry throughout the atmosphere in the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model configurations. These model configurations use the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) family of chemical mechanisms, covering the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. The new MOZART tropospheric chemistry scheme (T1) has a number of updates over the previous version (MOZART‐4) in CESM, including improvements to the oxidation of isoprene and terpenes, organic nitrate speciation, and aromatic speciation and oxidation and thus improved representation of ozone and secondary organic aerosol precursors. An evaluation of the present‐day simulations of CESM2 being provided for Climate Model Intercomparison Project round 6 (CMIP6) is presented. These simulations, using the anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from the inventories specified for CMIP6, as well as online calculation of emissions of biogenic compounds, lightning NO, dust, and sea salt, indicate an underestimate of anthropogenic emissions of a variety of compounds, including carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. The simulation of surface ozone in the southeast United States is improved over previous model versions, largely due to the improved representation of reactive nitrogen and organic nitrate compounds resulting in a lower ozone production rate than in CESM1 but still overestimates observations in summer. The simulation of tropospheric ozone agrees well with ozonesonde observations in many parts of the globe. The comparison of NOx and PAN to aircraft observations indicates the model simulates the nitrogen budget well.

This study assesses changes in meteorological droughts in West Africa under a high greenhouse gas scenario, i.e., a representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), and under a scenario of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) deployment. Using simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project that employed stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection to keep global mean surface temperature, as well as the interhemispheric and equator-to-pole temperature gradients at the 2020 level (present-day climate), we investigated the impact of SAG on meteorological droughts in West Africa. Analysis of the meteorological drought characteristics (number of drought events, drought duration, maximum length of drought events, severity of the greatest drought events and intensity of the greatest drought event) revealed that over the period from 2030–2049 and under GLENS simulations, these drought characteristics decrease in most regions in comparison to the RCP8.5 scenarios. On the contrary, over the period from 2070–2089 and under GLENS simulations, these drought characteristics increase in most regions compared to the results from the RCP8.5 scenarios. Under GLENS, the increase in drought characteristics is due to a decrease in precipitation. The decrease in precipitation is largely driven by weakened monsoon circulation due to the reduce of land–sea thermal contrast in the lower troposphere.

Abstract The global chemistry‐climate model (CAM4‐Chem) overestimates the surface ozone concentration over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). Reasons for this positive bias include emission, meteorology, chemical mechanism, and solver. In this study, we explore the last possibility by examining the sensitivity to the numerical methods for solving the chemistry equations. A second‐order Rosenbrock (ROS‐2) solver is implemented in CAM4‐Chem to examine its influence on the surface ozone concentration and the computational performance of the chemistry program. Results show that under the same time step size (1800 s), statistically significant reduction of positive bias is achieved by the ROS‐2 solver. The improvement is as large as 5.2 ppb in Eastern U.S. during summer season. The ROS‐2 solver is shown to reduce the positive bias in Europe and Asia as well, indicating the lower surface ozone concentration over the CONUS predicted by the ROS‐2 solver is not a trade‐off consequence with increasing the ozone concentration at other global regions. In addition, by refining the time step size to 180 s, the first‐order implicit solver does not provide statistically significant improvement of surface ozone concentration. It reveals that the better prediction from the ROS‐2 solver is not only due to its accuracy but also due to its suitability for stiff chemistry equations. As an added benefit, the computation cost of the ROS‐2 solver is almost half of first‐order implicit solver. The improved computational efficiency of the ROS‐2 solver is due to the reuse of the Jacobian matrix and lower upper (LU) factorization during its multistage calculation.

The stratospheric influence on summertime high surface ozone ( $\mathrm{O_3}$ ) events is examined using a twenty-year simulation from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. We find that $\mathrm{O_3}$ transported from the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to the surface $\mathrm{O_3}$ variability where background surface $\mathrm{O_3}$ exceeds the 95 th percentile, especially over western U.S. Maximum covariance analysis is applied to $\mathrm{O_3}$ anomalies paired with stratospheric $\mathrm{O_3}$ tracer anomalies to identify the stratospheric intrusion and the underlying dynamical mechanism. The first leading mode corresponds to deep stratospheric intrusions in the western and northern tier of the U.S., and intensified northeasterlies in the mid-to-lower troposphere along the west coast, which also facilitate the transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean. The second leading mode corresponds to deep intrusions over the Intermountain Regions. Both modes are associated with eastward propagating baroclinic systems, which are amplified near the end of the North Pacific storm tracks, leading to strong descents over the western U.S.

China was the first country to undergo large-scale lockdowns in response to the pandemic in early 2020 and a progressive return to normalization after April 2020. Spaceborne observations of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs), including formaldehyde (HCHO), glyoxal (CHOCHO), and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), reveal important changes over China in 2020, relative to 2019, in response to the pandemic-induced shutdown and the subsequent drop in pollutant emissions. In February, at the peak of the shutdown, the observed declines in OVOC levels were generally weaker (less than 20%) compared to the observed NO2 reductions (−40%). In May 2020, the observations reveal moderate decreases in NO2 (−15%) and PAN (−21%), small changes in CHOCHO (−3%) and HCHO (6%). Model simulations using the regional model MAGRITTEv1.1 with anthropogenic emissions accounting for the reductions due to the pandemic explain to a large extent the observed changes in lockdown-affected regions. The model results suggest that meteorological variability accounts for a minor but non-negligible part (~−5%) of the observed changes for NO2, whereas it is negligible for CHOCHO but plays a more substantial role for HCHO and PAN, especially in May. The interannual variability of biogenic and biomass burning emissions also contribute to the observed variations, explaining e.g., the important column increases of NO2 and OVOCs in February 2020, relative to 2019. These changes are well captured by the model simulations.

Western North American fires have been increasing in magnitude and severity over the last few decades. The complex coupling of fires with the atmospheric energy budget and meteorology creates short-term feedbacks on regional weather altering the amount of pollution to which Americans are exposed. Using a combination of model simulations and observations, this study shows that the severe fires in the summer of 2017 increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations leading to a cooling of the air at the surface, reductions in sensible heat fluxes, and a lowering of the planetary boundary layer height over land. This combination of lower-boundary layer height and increased aerosol pollution from the fires reduces air quality. We estimate that from start of August to end of October 2017, ∼400 premature deaths occurred within the western US as a result of short-term exposure to elevated PM _2.5 from fire smoke. As North America confronts a warming climate with more fires the short-term climate and pollution impacts of increased fire activity should be assessed within policy aimed to minimize impacts of climate change on society.

Geoengineering by injecting sulfur dioxide (SO _2 ) into the lower stratosphere has been suggested to reduce anthropogenically induced warming. While impacts of such geoengineering on climate have been investigated in recent decades, few modeling studies have considered biogeochemical feedbacks resulting from such intervention. This study comprehensively characterizes responses and feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems, from an ensemble of coupled high-resolution Earth system model climate change simulations, under the highest standard greenhouse gas scenario with an extreme geoengineering mitigation strategy. Under this strategy, temperature increases beyond 2020 levels due to elevated anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) were completely offset by the SO _2 injection. Carbon cycle feedbacks can alter the trajectory of atmospheric CO _2 levels by storing or releasing additional carbon on land and in the ocean, thus moderating or amplifying climate change. We assess terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks to climate in response to geoengineering, using model output from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project. Results indicate terrestrial ecosystems become a stronger carbon sink globally because of lower ecosystem respiration and diminished disturbance effects under geoengineering. An additional 79 Pg C would be stored on land by the end of the twenty-first century, yielding as much as a 4% reduction in atmospheric CO _2 mole fraction without marine biogeochemical feedbacks, compared to the high greenhouse gas scenario without geoengineering.

Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is estimated to have increased the likelihood of the 2015–2017 Western Cape drought, also called ‘Day Zero’ drought, by a factor of three, with a projected additional threefold increase of risk in a world with 2 °C warming. Here, we assess the potential for geoengineering using stratospheric aerosols injection (SAI) to offset the risk of ‘Day Zero’ level droughts in a high emission future climate using climate model simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project. Our findings suggest that keeping the global mean temperature at 2020 levels through SAI would offset the projected end century risk of ‘Day Zero’ level droughts by approximately 90%, keeping the risk of such droughts similar to today’s level. Precipitation is maintained at present-day levels in the simulations analysed here, because SAI (i) keeps westerlies near the South Western Cape in the future, as in the present-day, and (ii) induces the reduction or reversal of the upward trend in southern annular mode. These results are, however, specific to the SAI design considered here because using different model, different SAI deployment experiments, or analysing a different location might lead to different conclusions.

Climate modification by stratospheric SO2 injections, to form sulfate aerosols, may alter the spectral and angular distributions of the solar ultraviolet and visible radiation that reach the Earth’s surface, with potential consequences to environmental photobiology and photochemistry. We used modeling results from the CESM1(WACCM) stratospheric aerosol geoengineering large ensemble (GLENS) project, following the RCP8.5 emission scenario, and one geoengineering experiment with SO2 injections in the stratosphere, designed to keep surface temperatures at 2020 levels. Zonally and monthly averaged vertical profiles of O3, SO2, and sulfate aerosols, at 30 N and 70 N, served as input into a radiative transfer model, to compute biologically active irradiances for DNA damage (iDNA), UV index (UVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and two key tropospheric photodissociation coefficients (jO1D for O3 + hν (λ < 330 nm) → O(1D) + O2; and jNO2 for NO2 + hν (λ < 420 nm) → O(3P) + NO). We show that the geoengineering scenario is accompanied by substantial reductions in UV radiation. For example, comparing March 2080 to March 2020, iDNA decreased by 25% to 29% in the subtropics (30 N) and by 26% to 33% in the polar regions (70 N); UVI decreased by 19% to 20% at 30 N and 23% to 26% at 70 N; and jO1D decreased by 22% to 24% at 30 N and 35% to 40% at 70 N, with comparable contributions from sulfate scattering and stratospheric O3 recovery. Different responses were found for processes that depend on longer UV and visible wavelengths, as these are minimally affected by ozone; PAR and jNO2 were only slightly lower (9⁻12%) at 30 N, but much lower at 70 N (35⁻40%). Similar reductions were estimated for other months (June, September, and December). Large increases in the PAR diffuse-direct ratio occurred in agreement with previous studies. Absorption by SO2 gas had a small (~1%) effect on jO1D, iDNA, and UVI, and no effect on jNO2 and PAR.

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

We analyze the multi-earth system model responses of ocean temperatures and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under an idealized solar radiation management scenario (G1) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. All models simulate warming of the northern North Atlantic relative to no geoengineering, despite geoengineering substantially offsetting the increases in mean global ocean temperatures. Increases in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean at the surface (∼0.25 K) and at a depth of 500 m (∼0.10 K) are mainly due to a 10 Wm ^−2 reduction of total heat flux from ocean to atmosphere. Although the AMOC is slightly reduced under the solar dimming scenario, G1 , relative to piControl , it is about 37% stronger than under abrupt4 × CO _2 . The reduction of the AMOC under G1 is mainly a response to the heat flux change at the northern North Atlantic rather than to changes in the water flux and the wind stress. The AMOC transfers heat from tropics to high latitudes, helping to warm the high latitudes, and its strength is maintained under solar dimming rather than weakened by greenhouse gas forcing acting alone. Hence the relative reduction in high latitude ocean temperatures provided by solar radiation geoengineering, would tend to be counteracted by the correspondingly active AMOC circulation which furthermore transports warm surface waters towards the Greenland ice sheet, warming Arctic sea ice and permafrost.

Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO _2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earthʼs continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO _2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction.