Search

Summary: Background: Existing studies have not provided robust evidence about the CVD risk of non-smoking patients with restrictive spirometric pattern (RSP) or airflow obstruction (AFO), and how the risk is modified by body shape. We aimed to bridge the gap. Methods: We used never-smokers' data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and performed Cox models by sex (278,953 females and 50,845 males). Spirometry was used to assess the baseline spirometric pattern. CVD outcomes were captured through multiple sources. Findings: Females’ results were presented primarily, though males' results were similar. During a median 12-year (maximum 14.5 years) follow-up, both RSP and AFO patients had increased risks of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), other ischaemic heart disease (other IHD), heart failure, pulmonary heart disease, arrhythmia, and intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). RSP was also associated with ischaemic stroke (IS). The HRs (95% CIs) for AFO in females ranged from 1.29 (1.15–1.45) for ICH to 8.84 (7.79–10.03) for pulmonary heart disease, while those for RSP ranged from 1.11 (1.08–1.15) for IS to 3.17 (2.80–3.59) for pulmonary heart disease. These risks increased with the severity of AFO and reduced FVC. RSP/AFO was more strongly associated with other IHD, heart failure, and pulmonary heart disease in underweight females than in normal and obese counterparts, respectively. Interpretation: With the confounding of smoking fully controlled, both RSP and AFO were associated with higher risks of various CVD outcomes, which further increased with the severity of AFO and reduced FVC. These associations were even stronger in underweight individuals. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, and British Heart Foundation.

Summary: Background: In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population. Methods: We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol. Findings: When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%–21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83–138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30–79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs. Interpretation: For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population. Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).

Summary: Background: Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers. Methods: In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009–2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics. Findings: About 64–68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27–29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas. Interpretation: Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Summary: Background: Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke. Methods: Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI

BackgroundThe United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one-third. Although previous modeling studies have predicted premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, the predictions for cancer and its subcategories are less well understood in China. ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to project premature cancer mortality of 10 leading cancers in Hunan Province, China, based on various scenarios of risk factor control so as to establish the priority for future interventions. MethodsWe used data collected between 2009 and 2017 from the Hunan cancer registry annual report as empirical data for projections. The population-attributable fraction was used to disaggregate cancer deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to 10 risk factors: smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, diabetes, physical inactivity, low vegetable and fruit intake, high red meat intake, high salt intake, and high ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels. The unattributable deaths and the risk factors in the baseline scenario were projected using the proportional change model, assuming constant annual change rates through 2030. The comparative risk assessment theory was used in simulated scenarios to reflect how premature mortality would be affected if the targets for risk factor control were achieved by 2030. ResultsThe cancer burden in Hunan significantly increased during 2009-2017. If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from cancers in 2030 would increase to 97,787 in Hunan Province, and the premature mortality (9.74%) would be 44.47% higher than that in 2013 (6.74%). In the combined scenario where all risk factor control targets were achieved, 14.41% of premature cancer mortality among those aged 30-70 years would be avoided compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. Reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, high BMI, ambient PM2.5 levels, and insufficient fruit intake played relatively important roles in decreasing cancer premature mortality. However, the one-third reduction goal would not be achieved for most cancers except gastric cancer. ConclusionsExisting targets on cancer-related risk factors may have important roles in cancer prevention and control. However, they are not sufficient to achieve the one-third reduction goal in premature cancer mortality in Hunan Province. More aggressive risk control targets should be adopted based on local conditions.

Summary: Background: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite considerable improvements in diagnosis and treatment, little is known about the short-term and long-term prognosis after a first stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, including China. We aimed to assess the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent stroke and mortality after a first stroke for each of the major pathological stroke types. Methods: This population-based cohort study included adults aged 35–74 years without disability who were recruited to the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). A baseline survey was conducted in ten geographical areas (five urban, five rural) in China, and participants had clinical measurements recorded. Participants were followed up by monitoring death registries and by electronic linkage to health registries and health insurance claims databases, with follow-up until Jan 1, 2017. Participants were excluded from analyses if they had a previous history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or ischaemic heart disease at baseline. All incidences of fatal and non-fatal stroke during the study period were recorded by type (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and unspecified type). Primary outcome measures were 28-day mortality, recurrent stroke, major vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death), vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Findings: Of 512 715 individuals in the CKB, 489 586 participants without previous ischaemic heart disease and stroke at recruitment were included, of whom 45 732 (42 073 [92%] confirmed by brain imaging) had a stroke during the study period. The mean age was 59·3 years (SD 9·8) for participants who had a stroke (54% women) and 50·8 years (10·3) for participants with no stroke (60% women). 36 588 (80%) of the incident cases of stroke were ischaemic stroke, 7440 (16%) were intracerebral haemorrhage, 702 (2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 1002 (2%) were an unspecified stroke type. 28-day mortality was 3% (95% CI 3–4) for ischaemic stroke, 47% (46–48)for intracerebral haemorrhage, 19% (17–22; 52% for rural areas and 32% for urban areas) subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 24% (22–27) for unspecified stroke. Among participants who survived stroke at 28 days, 41% (41–42) had recurrent stroke at 5 years (ischaemic stroke 41% [41–42], intracerebral haemorrhage 44% [42–46], subarachnoid haemorrhage 22% [18–27], unspecified stroke type 40% [35–44]) and mortality at 5 years was 17% ([17–18] ischaemic stroke 16% [15–16], intracerebral haemorrhage 28% [26–29], subarachnoid haemorrhage 16% [12–20], unspecified stroke type 15% [12–19]). After a first ischaemic stroke, 91% of recurrent strokes were also ischaemic stroke; after an intracerebral haemorrhage, 56% of recurrent strokes were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 41% of recurrent strokes were ischaemic stroke. Interpretation: After a first stroke, the risk of recurrence or death within 5 years was high among this population of Chinese adults. Urgent improvements to secondary prevention of stroke in China are needed to reduce these risks. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China. Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Summary: Background: Cooking practice has transitioned from use of solid fuels to use of clean fuels, with addition of better ventilation facilities. However, the change in mortality risk associated with such a transition remains unclear. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) Study enrolled participants (aged 30–79 years) from ten areas across China; we chose to study participants from five urban areas where transition from use of solid fuels to clean fuels for cooking was prevalent. Participants who reported regular cooking (weekly or more frequently) at baseline were categorised as persistent clean fuel users, previous solid fuel users, or persistent solid fuel users, according to self-reported fuel use histories. All-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality were identified through linkage to China's Disease Surveillance Point system and local mortality records. Findings: Between June 24, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 226 186 participants living in five urban areas of China were enrolled in the CKB Study. Among 171 677 participants who reported cooking regularly (weekly or more frequently), 75 785 (44%) were persistent clean fuel users, 80 511 (47%) were previous solid fuel users, and 15 381 (9%) were persistent solid fuel users. During a mean of 9·8 (SD 1·7) years of follow-up, 10 831 deaths were documented, including 3819 cardiovascular deaths and 761 respiratory deaths. Compared with persistent clean fuel users, persistent solid fuel users had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·19, 95% CI 1·10–1·28), cardiovascular mortality (1·24, 1·10–1·39), and respiratory mortality (1·43, 1·10–1·85). The excess risk of all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality fell by more than 60% in 5 years after cessation of solid fuel use and continued to decrease afterwards. Use of ventilation was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk, even among persistent clean fuel users (HR 0·78, 0·69–0·89). Interpretation: Solid fuel use for cooking is associated with a higher risk of mortality, and cessation of solid fuel use cuts excess mortality risks swiftly and substantially within 5 years. Ventilation use also lowers the risk of mortality, even among people who persistently use clean fuels. It is of prime importance for both policy makers and the public to accelerate the transition from solid fuels to clean fuels and promote efficient ventilation to minimise further adverse health effects. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust, and Kadoorie Charitable Foundation.

Summary: Background: The age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular disease has been studied mostly in high-income countries, and before the widespread use of brain imaging for diagnosis of the main stroke types (ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage). We aimed to investigate this relationship among adults in China. Methods: 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years were recruited into a prospective study from ten areas of China between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Participants attended assessment centres where they were interviewed about demographic and lifestyle characteristics, and their blood pressure, height, and weight were measured. Incident disease was identified through linkage to local mortality records, chronic disease registries, and claims to the national health insurance system. We used Cox regression analysis to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating systolic blood pressure to disease incidence. HRs were corrected for regression dilution to estimate associations with long-term average (usual) systolic blood pressure. Findings: During a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR 8–10), there were 88 105 incident vascular and non-vascular chronic disease events (about 90% of strokes events were diagnosed using brain imaging). At ages 40–79 years (mean age at event 64 years [SD 9]), usual systolic blood pressure was continuously and positively associated with incident major vascular disease throughout the range 120–180 mm Hg: each 10 mm Hg higher usual systolic blood pressure was associated with an approximately 30% higher risk of ischaemic heart disease (HR 1·31 [95% CI 1·28–1·34]) and ischaemic stroke (1·30 [1·29–1·31]), but the association with intracerebral haemorrhage was about twice as steep (1·68 [1·65–1·71]). HRs for vascular disease were twice as steep at ages 40–49 years than at ages 70–79 years. Usual systolic blood pressure was also positively associated with incident chronic kidney disease (1·40 [1·35–1·44]) and diabetes (1·14 [1·12–1·15]). About half of all vascular deaths in China were attributable to elevated blood pressure (ie, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg), accounting for approximately 1 million deaths (

Summary: Background: China has high stroke rates despite the population being relatively lean. Uncertainty persists about the relevance of adiposity to risk of stroke types. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with incidence of stroke types and effect mediation by blood pressure in Chinese men and women. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults aged 30–79 years from ten areas (five urban and five rural) during 2004–08. During a median 9 years (IQR 8–10) of follow-up, 32 448 strokes (about 90% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among 489 301 participants without previous cardiovascular disease. Cox regression analysis was used to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic stroke (n=25 210) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=5380) associated with adiposity. Findings: Mean baseline body-mass index (BMI) was 23·6 kg/m2 (SD 3·2), and 331 723 (67·8%) participants had a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (mean 17·1 kg/m2 [SD 0·9] to 31·7 kg/m2 [2·0]), each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 8·3 mm Hg (SE 0·04) higher systolic blood pressure. BMI was positively associated with ischaemic stroke, with an HR of 1·30 (95% CI 1·28–1·33 per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI), which was generally consistent with that predicted by equivalent differences in systolic blood pressure (1·25 [1·24–1·26]). The HR for intracerebral haemorrhage (1·11 [1·07–1·16] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI) was less extreme, and much weaker than that predicted by the corresponding difference in systolic blood pressure (1·48 [1·46–1·50]). Other adiposity measures showed similar associations with stroke types. After adjustment for usual systolic blood pressure, the positive associations with ischaemic stroke were attenuated (1·05 [1·03–1·07] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI); for intracerebral haemorrhage, they were reversed (0·73 [0·70–0·77]). High adiposity (BMI >23 kg/m2) accounted for 14·7% of total stroke (16·5% of ischaemic stroke and 6·7% of intracerebral haemorrhage). Interpretation: In Chinese adults, adiposity was strongly positively associated with ischaemic stroke, chiefly through its effect on blood pressure. For intracerebral haemorrhage, leanness, either per se or through some other factor (or factors), might increase risk, offsetting the protective effects of lower blood pressure. Funding: UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Summary: Background: In developed countries, smoking is associated with increased risk of diabetes. Little is known about the association in China, where cigarette consumption has increased (first in urban, then in rural areas) relatively recently. Moreover, uncertainty remains about the effect of smoking cessation on diabetes in China and elsewhere. We aimed to assess the associations of smoking and smoking cessation with risk of incident diabetes among Chinese adults. Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years during 2004–08 from ten diverse areas (five urban and five rural) across China. Participants were interviewed at study assessment clinics, underwent physical measurements, and had a non-fasting blood sample taken. Participants were separated into four categories according to smoking history: never-smokers, ever-regular smokers, ex-smokers, and occasional smokers. Incident diabetes cases were identified through linkage with diabetes surveillance systems, the national health insurance system, and death registries. All analyses were done separately in men and women and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) for diabetes associated with smoking. Findings: 68% (n=134 975) of men ever smoked regularly compared with 3% (n=7811) of women. During 9 years' follow-up, 13 652 new-onset diabetes cases were recorded among 482 589 participants without previous diabetes. Among urban men, smokers had an adjusted HR of 1·18 (95% CI 1·12–1·25) for diabetes. HRs increased with younger age at first smoking regularly (1·12, 1·20, and 1·27 at ≥25 years, 20–24 years, and

BackgroundBreastfeeding confers substantial benefits to child health and has also been associated with lower risk of maternal cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in later life. However, the evidence on the effects of CVD is still inconsistent, especially in East Asians, in whom the frequency and duration of breastfeeding significantly differ from those in the West. Methods and ResultsIn 2004–2008, the nationwide China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 0.5 million individuals aged 30 to 79 years from 10 diverse regions across China. During 8 years of follow‐up, 16 671 incident cases of coronary heart disease and 23 983 cases of stroke were recorded among 289 573 women without prior CVD at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident CVD by breastfeeding. Overall, ≈99% of women had given birth, among whom 97% reported a history of breastfeeding, with a median duration of 12 months per child. Compared with parous women who had never breastfed, ever breastfeeding was associated with a significantly lower risk of CVD, with adjusted HRs of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84–0.99) for coronary heart disease and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85–0.99) for stroke. Women who had breastfed for ≥24 months had an 18% (HR, 0.82; 0.77–0.87) lower risk of coronary heart disease and a 17% (HR, 0.83; 0.79–0.87) lower risk of stroke compared with women who had never breastfed. Among women who ever breastfed, each additional 6 months of breastfeeding per child was associated with an adjusted HR of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.94–0.98) for coronary heart disease and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96–0.98) for stroke. ConclusionsAmong Chinese women, a history of breastfeeding was associated with an ≈10% lower risk of CVD in later life and the magnitude of the inverse association was stronger among those with a longer duration of breastfeeding.

ObjectiveTo compare important clinical outcomes between early and delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in adults who had a co-infection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB).MethodsWe performed a systematic search for relevant publications on PubMed, EMBASE, and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared early ART initiation (within four weeks after anti-TB treatment starting) and delayed ART initiation (after eight weeks but less than twelve weeks of anti-TB treatment starting) in the course of TB treatment. Pooled estimates with corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated with random-effects model. Sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the stability of pooled estimates.ResultsA meta-analysis was evaluated from six RCTs with 2272 participants. Compared to delayed ART initiation, early ART initiation significantly reduces all-cause mortality in HIV-positive patients with TB [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.75, 95%CI 0.59 to 0.95; I2 = 0.00%; p = 0.67], even though there is an increased risk for IRD [IRR 2.29, 95%CI 1.81 to 2.91; I22 = 0.00%; p = 0.56]. Additionally, early ART initiation was not associated with an increased risk for grade 3-4 drug-related adverse events [IRR 0.99, 95%CI 0.83 to 1.18; I2 = 0.00%; p = 0.56].ConclusionsAlthough limited evidence, our results provide support for early ART initiation in the course of anti-TB treatment. However, more well-designed cohort or intervention studies are required to further confirm our findings.

Background and purpose Previous studies, mostly focusing on the European population, have reported polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might achieve risk stratification of stroke. We aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese population.Methods Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set (n=22 191) and a population-based testing set (n=72 150). Four previously developed PRSs were included, and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were developed. The PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing set. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)).Results In the testing set, during 872 919 person-years of follow-up, 8514 incident stroke events were documented. The PRSs of any stroke (AS) and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS, IS and ICH (p