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Copyright of Revista Ciencias de la Actividad Física UCM is the property of Ediciones Universidad Catolica del Maule and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Eutopía: Revista de Desarrollo Económico Territorial is the property of Eutopia: Revista de Desarrollo Economico Territorial and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista de Investigación Lingüística is the property of Servicio de Publicaciones de la Universidad de Murcia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Mirai. Estudios Japoneses is the property of Universidad Complutense de Madrid and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista de Ciencias Economicas is the property of Universidad Nacional del Litoral and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

It has been shown that the variability of the marginal capital product ratio is what determines the growth rate of economies according to Harrod's model; therefore, it is important to predict its behavior. This paper develops a methodology based on probabilistic random walk to predict the annual marginal capital product ratio of Colombia for the year 2017 based on information from the Penn World Table database from 1993 to 2016. It was found that this variable has underlying mathematical orders, which allows its prediction with an accuracy of 97.69%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a State Estimation Algorithm for Distribution Networks based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Instead of nodal voltages, this method uses nodal active and reactive power as state variables in the dynamic model. Different demand forecast algorithms to assist the prediction step were tested and compared. In addition, the algorithm includes the software package OpenDSS as a calculation engine. We used the 13-node IEEE distribution network to test the methodology by simulating several scenarios of measurement generation. These simulations were based on the measured values of a local energy distribution company. The results exposed different performance levels depending on the nature of the scenario and the selected forecast method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PREDICTIVE SCENARIOS OF SHORELINE POSITIONING OF MATINHOS – PARANÁ (BRAZIL): SUBSIDIES FOR COASTAL MANAGEMENT. The Brazilian government launched in 2018 a National Program for Shoreline Conservation – PROCOSTA, a permanent program directed at gathering reliable information regarding the current coastline situation, predictions and identifying possible shoreline hazards. These hazards can be defined as natural phenomena that can result in material and human damages, including coastal erosion processes. This paper seeks to identify the shoreline variations, observing selected sites with erosion and to predict scenarios following the time set intervals suggested by PROCOSTA in the city of Matinhos, on the South coast of the state of Paraná – Brazil. The results are presented with possible solutions to the coastal erosion problems with the investigated data which comprises an overall analysis of the Matinhos shoreline evolution, generated from spatial and temporal images acquired from a time interval between 1951 until 2016. The sites studied near anthropogenic interference, at the shoreline and next to the mouth of the Matinhos river present scenarios suggesting that the infrastructures built on the beachfront will be reached by the sea in the next 25 years. Beaches located north of Matinhos with preserved spits vegetation have presented a more stable scenario, where erosion does not tend to reach the buildings within a period of 100 years. This paper is aware of the limitations of the temporal mapping of shorelines and it is not a prediction, but intends to be a starting point for land use and sustainable future planning, providing a base for assertive actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Espanola de Comunicacion en Salud is the property of Asociacion Espanola de Comunicacion Sanitaria and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper we analyze the information structure of predicate doubling in Rioplatense Spanish (e.g., Leer, leyó 'as for reading, she/he read'). We propose that in this construction the dislocated predicate functions as a contrastive topic in the sense of Büring (2003), that is, it evokes a set of alternative questions with which it contrasts. We argue that this characterization explains the "continuation effect" that predicate doubling exhibits, i.e., the fact that a predicate doubling sentence suggests a potential continuation that involves another predicate. Moreover, we show that this analysis correctly predicts the distribution of predicate doubling in embedding contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Research Papers of the Wroclaw University of Economics / Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wroclawiu is the property of Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The present paper contains a comparative study between two non-deterministic approaches to the Delphi method: one based on Pythagorean fuzzy numbers, and the other based on the cloud model. From the empirical evidence obtained in an experimental investigation (N = 56 experts), related to the academic results forecast, it is observed that both approaches produce relatively similar results, even close to the results of an ARIMA test based on series chronological. The study reveals that both methods differ substantially in the way they input, process and output information. Advantages and disadvantages are analyzed, which must be addressed in each case. It is concluded that both approaches are viable, as alternative resources in unusual situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic, where the use of diachronic information is not always completely justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Daena: International Journal of Good Conscience is the property of Spenta University Mexico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Trucks became essential for the freight transportation systems' functioning and the enterprises considered several variables in their operations. One variable was the mileage, where fluctuations were observed with assignable causes to the enterprises in several occasions and it decreased over the time. This paper's objective was to forecast one North Benz truck's possible monthly mileage in a 33 truck fleet for the 2021 year. The truck's possible monthly mileage variation was attenuated using the moving average technique. It was obtained a mathematical model of the monthly mileage's moving average according to the truck age, the mileage's typical deviation and the mileage's relative error. The model was applied to forecast the North Benz truck fleet's performance at the enterprise. It contributed to facilitate the enterprise's decision taking on the transportation offer and incomeses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Estudios Gerenciales is the property of Universidad ICESI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

People and activities, they carry out in daily life are subject to constant decision-making, the consequences of which are largely uncertain. This decision-making involves a rational process that is based on the quantity and quality of the information, the processing capacity and the use of the rationality of people, which allows facing scenarios in the short, medium and long term. In the current context, the difficulties in the development of this process are greater, due to the abundance of data, the doubt of its veracity and the speed of exchange, so that scenarios of chaos and uncertainty are generated. Under this dynamic, forecasting and prediction can be less effective, offer less certainty about the result and, at the same time, produce biases in the information. These predictive problems are observable, for example, in the estimation of economic growth, human behavior, stock markets, natural phenomena, conflicts, migration, the spread of diseases, geopolitics, negotiations, among others. These difficulties are caused, in large part, by the techniques or tools used for data processing and by the processing capacity of the information systems, which have limitations for the combination of different types of information. In this sense, the scientific community has endeavored to propose new methods and develop better techniques that allow capturing and processing the greatest amount of useful information in the decision-making process. This is known as decision science; a broad and transversal term to a large number of areas and fields of study, ranging from the human and social sciences to the pure sciences. Thus, this paper will focus on those areas that are dedicated to proposing methods and techniques that allow improvements and applications to be made in the aggregation and treatment of data for decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food inflation in Peru has a significant influence on total inflation, so the presence of second-round effects on core inflation may be high. This paper estimates the size of these second-round effects using a general equilibrium model for the Peruvian economy. The results indicate the absence of a significant second round effect on Peruvian inflation, given that food inflation does not play any role in the formation of inflation expectations and in the determination of wages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa is the property of Universidad Pablo de Olavide and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa is the property of Universidad Pablo de Olavide and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista EAN is the property of Universidad EAN and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Ingeniería Industrial is the property of Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial, Universidad del Bio-Bio and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ingeniería y Universidad is the property of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Tecnura is the property of Tecnura and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Meteorologica is the property of Centro Argentino de Meteorologos and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

An accurate liquidity forecast is necessary for an effective implementation of monetary policy. Its quality is determined by the quality of its components: the projected demand for bank reserves and of the, so called, autonomous monetary factors, such as the demand for bills and coins of the public, the monetary effect of public sector and external sector operations, and some operations with the financial sector. The objective of the paper is to improve one component of this process, the daily forecast of the short term demand for bills and coins. Therefore, two models, that treat calendar effects, business day effects, and annual and monthly seasonal effects, were estimated. Both showed a good short-term forecasting performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every investment is accompanied by yields, which can be measured by using appropriate tools for this purpose, the best known being the "Net Present Value" (NPV) and "The Internal Rate of Return" (IRR). The main reason for evaluating the profitability of an investment, be it private or social, must be determined in advance if it will generate profits for investors at the end of a certain predefined horizon of time. Both tools are reliable but in the event of a doubt, the VAN will be chosen. This paper aims to evaluate the profitability of the production of cocoa paste in the province of Guayas, Canton Naranjito, parish "Roberto Astudillo" in the Republic of Ecuador, according to the initial investment introduced in the production. These are small companies, many of them familiar and of cultural and social importance. To achieve this objective, the NPV and the IRR of these companies will be calculated and the future financial behavior will be forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Colombia, social networks have become a powerful tool to disseminate political opinions, especially during the campaign period in the national presidential elections. This paper proposes a hybrid model to predict the outcome of the first round of presidential elections in Colombia in 2018, which aims to minimize absolute error and improve the quality of the final prediction. User activities on Twitter and Facebook were recorded and analyzed with artificial intelligence algorithms, resulting in an accurate prediction consistent with reality. As a core result is highlighted that the RMSE of the hybrid model is around 2.47%, surpassing on average the RMSE of the country's most prominent traditional polling firms. Additionally, the value of electoral abstentionism was also predicted with a differential error of 1.72% in relation to the real value, demonstrating the reliability of the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ciencia e Ingenieria Neogranadina is the property of Ciencia e Ingenieria Neogranadina and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of CorSalud is the property of Cardiocentro Ernesto Che Guevara and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Tecnura is the property of Tecnura and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ciencias Psicológicas is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Time series prediction is an important research problem due to its implications in engineering, economics, finance and social sciences. An important topic about this problematic is the development of new models and its comparison with previous approaches in terms of forecast accuracy. Recently, support vector machines (SVM) have been used for time series prediction, but the reported experiences are limited and there are some problems related to its specification. The aim of this paper is to propose a novel technique for estimating some constants of the SVM usually fixed empirically by the modeler. The proposed technique is used to estimate several SVM with the aim of forecast five benchmark time series; the obtained results are compared with the statistics reported in other papers. The proposed method allow us to obtain competitive SVM for the time series forecasted in comparison with the results obtained using other most traditional models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Estudios Gerenciales is the property of Universidad ICESI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Administración (01203592) is the property of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper employs the generalized method of moments estimation technique to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic factors on bank default risk for listed Jamaican banks and securities dealers over the period December 2004 to June 2016. Default risk is captured by a distance to default measure which is computed using a Merton type, option-based model. This indicator accurately tracks the default experience of listed Jamaican banks and securities dealers over important dates throughout the sample period. The estimation results of the model revealed that gross domestic product growth, inflation, unemployment rate, growth in domestic private sector credit as well as the real effective exchange rate have a statistically significant impact on the performance of the distance to default measure. As such, the econometric findings validate the sensitivity of the fragility measure to the variability of key macroeconomic variables. The model was also utilized to forecast the distance to default measure six-quarters ahead, as this will aid in the formulation of policy to mitigate systemic risks in the financial sector. The forecast results showed less volatility and lower overall default risk for Jamaican banks and securities dealers due to the projected improvement in various macroeconomic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economía del Caribe is the property of Fundacion Universidad del Norte and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Avances: Investigación en Ingeniería is the property of Universidad Libre, Facultad de Ingenieria and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Salud UIS is the property of Universidad Industrial de Santander and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper is proposed as a critical approach to normativism and rational-action based sociological models, starting from the idea that they overrate the capacities of agents to understand and evaluate the mechanisms of social life. In opposition to these theoretical approaches, we suggest that contingency and failure (not taken into account by these approaches) appear as constant realities, inevitable and appropriate for understanding social action. In this journey we rely on Ramos' proposal on the tragic dimension of action, in addition to the reformulation by Arendt of Heidegger's concept of care. Finally, we critique the role assigned to certain experts in the current scenario of economic crisis,from presumption of the ability to predict and correct social paths, pushing for success as a goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial neural networks are an important technique in nonlinear time series forecasting. However, training of neural networks is a difficult task, because of the presence of many local optimal points and the irregularity of the error surface. In this context, it is very easy to obtain under-fitted or over-fitted forecasting models without forecasting power. Thus, researchers and practitioner need to have criteria for detecting this class of problems. In this paper, we demonstrate that the use of well known methodologies in linear time series forecasting, such as the Box-Jenkins methodology or exponential smoothing models, are valuable tools for detecting bad specified neural network models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supply management in enterprises is a vital strategy for productivity and market competitiveness. Logistics and supply chains should result in competitive advantages from the strategy. Supply chain management presents a starting point which is unavoidable if we are to create value, the anticipation and the anticipation comes first. The paper presents results of conclusive studies conducted by state where the need is strong evidence of a planning application in Colombian businesses. There is evidence that demand planning Colombian companies is necessary. Additionally, it presents an overview of the most important models used to manage demand and use forecasts for it. The purpose is to study how the models should be chosen depending on the behavior analyzed time series and the dynamics of different markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models are estimated for the Chilean economy. Under this approach, the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and forecast exercises are studied and evaluated for the main macroeconomic variables. Then, the results are contrasted with the standard VAR models presented in the previous literature for the case of Chile and the implications for the monetary policy design are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the capacity of the neural networks to forecast the sign of weekly variations of IPSA. Several architectures of neural networks were used over the time period between January 11th of 1999 to October 22th of 2001, being the Recursive Ward Network the one with the best performance, reaching an outsample predictive capacity of 72% and an outsample accumulate yield for the IPSA portfolio of a 24.42%. The Recurrent Recursive Jordan & Elman Network achieved a forecast ability of 64% and a return of 21.33%; while the AR(1,1) model obtained a return of 18.31% higher than the Ward Standard Network and Recursive MLP returns. Even though the first one had not statistical evidence of predictive capacity it would allow to conclude that a higher predictive capacity do not always implies higher yields. The Pesaran & Timmermann test (1992) gives evidence that the Recursive Ward Network and the Recurrent Recursive Jordan & Elman Network, in his recursive and standard version can forecast the index directional change for the chilean case. Also, this models could produce higher returns than AR(1,1) model. This result supports the conclusions of Leung, Daouk & Chert (2000) about the prediction of movements directions can give greater capital gains that the forecasting of clove values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Cuadernos de Turismo is the property of Servicio de Publicaciones de la Universidad de Murcia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Investigación e Innovación en Ingenierías is the property of Universidad Simon Bolivar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of BIOAGRO is the property of Revista BIOAGRO and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista de Filosofía (00348236) is the property of Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Filosofia y Humanidades and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Anuario Think EPI is the property of EPI SCP and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)