1. Estimación del rendimiento de maíz sembrado en suelo Ferralítico Rojo para el escenario climático SSP1-2.6.
- Author
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González-Robaina, Felicita, Brenda Toledo-Pérez, Liz, Cisneros-Zayas, Enrique, Duarte-Díaz, Carmen, and Chaterlán-Durruthy, Yoima
- Subjects
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PLANT genetics , *AGRICULTURAL research , *SOLAR temperature , *AGRICULTURAL climatology , *CROP yields - Abstract
Dynamic simulation models are indispensable tools in agricultural research and management. Modeling makes possible to investigate the consequences of probable future scenarios and to be ready for the changes before they occur. The objective of this study is to predict corn yields in Red Ferralitic soil in Alquizar region under the SSP1-2.6 climate change scenario and the Hadgem3, Mpi-esm1 and Mri-esm2 models with the use of the AquaCrop simulation model. To select the hydrological years, a study of a series of 28 years (2023-2050) was carried out for the period November-April (crop development period) for each model. The possibility of achieving potential yields of 8.6 t·ha-1 and an agronomic water productivity of 3.08 kg·m-3 in corn is evident, if the crop is not subject to any type of limitation except plant genetics, solar radiation and temperature, and rainfalls are sufficient in this dry period. If irrigation is applied only to guarantee corn germination under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, yields are estimated at 4.4 t·ha-1 and biomass at 14.6 t·ha-1, achieving a productivity of 2.37 kg·m-3, with reductions with respect to potential performance of 44 %. The comparative study of yields in the SSP1-2.6 climate change scenario and the different models demonstrates the influence of these conditions on the crop response. The results show the AquaCrop model as an alternative to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024