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The 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans was held in Santos, Brazil, in March 2015, convened by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC), and organized locally by the Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo (IO-USP). The symposium was designed to do two things. First, to get updates on new scientific developments that would address recognized uncertainties that remained from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report and to contribute to building bridges between research in the natural and social sciences in respect to the human dimensions of climate change, with a focus on coastal communities, management objectives, governance and adaptation measures. The choice of the venue in Santos, Brazil, was aimed to stimulate and widen this thematic discussion in Latin America and southern Atlantic regions, where there still are important knowledge gaps and scientific, politic and societal challenges to be overcome. The meeting was attended by 280 participants from 38 countries, contributing 336 oral and poster presentations. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the symposium and introduces a number of papers submitted to this special issue.

Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor.

This paper revisits the intense using of energy in the world and the role of the fossil fuels with predominance of the oil in the global primary energy supply and their effects to climate change. It also presents a new reading on the thermodynamic conditions and characteristics of CO2 and CO2-EOR together with oil industry advancement in the world and Brazil. The interface with chemical EOR processes involving nanoparticles (NPs), their application inside the reservoirs for EOR and understanding of fines migration reducing, among other physical phenomena is also studied. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a worldwide strategy for mitigating climate change. CO2 geosequestration is also analyzed on the leakage of CO2 and brine from aquifers and their implication to the security of the storage and environment. Recent studies show that, globally, CO2-EOR can extract up to 375 billion of additional oil barrels and geological storage up to 360 Gt of CO2 in the next 50 years. Pre-salt is a complex of microbial carbonate reservoirs with stromatolite framework in ultra-deep waters (1500–3000) m depth, underneath by thick salt layer (2000–2500) m. Its reservoirs are in the depth up to (5500–6500) m TVDSS and approximately (200–300) km offshore. It presents light oils and high (GOR) ranging (200–400) Sm3/Sm3 and huge CO2 contamination (8–15)%. Due to the large CO2 content of oil, this work investigated CO2-EOR and CO2 geosequestration within the reservoirs. Pilot test demonstrated that miscible CO2-EOR with WAG is feasible and beneficial to this hydrocarbon Province. This study also calculated and validated the potential of CO2-EOR to the CCS. It concludes that Pre-salt can contribute to recovery factor (RF) increasing about 5.7 billion of additional oil barrels, and to CCS with about 266 Mt CO2 to be geological stored, for the next 20 years. In this context, this work also analyses the recent changes on the Brazilian oil and gas regulation to encourage new international Companies to enter in Brazil and Pre-salt for petroleum exploring. In Pre-salt, CO2-EOR also connects the petroleum energy system to CCS, transforming the oil reservoir in a carbon sink. These results represent a substantial role of Pre-salt to the energy efficiency of energy resources recovering from the biosphere and a high contribution to the climate change mitigation.

Este trabajo se plantea a partir la ecología política y la filosofía de la liberación, con el objetivo de presentar una crítica a los Acuerdos de Cambio Climático en París 2015, dada la poca o nula efectividad de las políticas ambientales que se proponen. Para tal fin, se realizó un ensayo teórico crítico al modelo capitalista vigente y sus conflictos frente al desarrollo sostenible. La metodología utilizada es un ensayo crítico a la contradicción producción-tecnología que el capitalismo plantea a la civilización y a la humanidad. Los resultados indican que existen conflictos entre las políticas ambientales especificadas en dicho Acuerdo de Cambio Climático firmado, en función de su efectividad para la humanidad y la naturaleza, como reproducción ampliada del capital versus vida. The objective of this paper is to start from the political ecology and the philosophy of the liberation, to present a critique to the Agreements of Climatic Change in Paris 2015, given the little or null effectiveness of the environmental policies that are proposed. For this purpose, a critical theoretical essay was carried out on the current capitalist model and its conflicts regarding sustainable development. The methodology used is a critical test to the productiontechnology contradiction that capitalism poses to civilization and humanity. The results indicate that there are conflicts between the environmental policies specified in said signed climate change agreement, based on their effectiveness for humanity and nature, such as an expanded reproduction of capital vs. life. O objetivo deste trabalho é partir da ecologia política e da filosofia da libertação, apresentar uma crítica aos Acordos de Mudança Climática em Paris 2015, dada a pouca ou nula eficácia das políticas ambientais propostas. Para este propósito, um ensaio teórico crítico foi realizado sobre o modelo capitalista atual e seus conflitos em relação ao desenvolvimento sustentável. A metodologia utilizada é um teste crítico para a contradição de tecnologia de produção que o capitalismo representa para a civilização e para a humanidade. Os resultados indicam que existem conflitos entre as políticas ambientais especificadas no referido acordo de mudança climática assinado, com base na sua eficácia para a humanidade e a natureza, como uma reprodução ampliada do capital versus vida.

Since the emergence of the environmental agenda in the global arena, Brazil has maintained an active position in the debates around this topic. Although Brazil has always been a protagonist, its foreign policy has shown some changes in relation to addressing climate change in recent years. Likewise, the modalities under which this issue has been framed as a problem since 1992 are fundamentally important to interpreting the Brazilian position in international negotiations and the changes in them over the years. The objective of the following article is to understand the discursive framework on which the foreign policy of climate change in Brazil was structured from a constructivist standpoint on International Relations. Using this approach, this article studies both the international influences and the internal conditions of Brazilian climate policy in the negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The main sources of this research are semi-structured interviews with state and non-state actors in Brazil, complemented with a review of secondary sources such as official documents and academic papers. Resumo Desde a emergência na agenda ambiental em arena global, o Brasil tem sustentado uma posição ativa nos debates sobre esse tema. Embora o Brasil tenha sido protagonista, sua política externa tem mostrado algumas transformações na sua abordagem em relação à mudança climática nos últimos anos. Da mesma forma, as modalidades sob as quais esta questão tem sido tratada como problema desde 1992 são de fundamental importância para interpretar a posição brasileira nas negociações internacionais e as mudanças ocorridas ao longo dos anos. O objetivo desse artigo é compreender o arcabouço discursivo sobre o qual a política externa de mudanças climáticas no Brasil foi estruturada a partir de um ponto de vista construtivista das Relações Internacionais. Usando essa abordagem, este artigo estuda as influências internacionais e as condições internas da política climática brasileira nas negociações da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudanças Climáticas (UNFCCC). As principais fontes dessa pesquisa são entrevistas semiestruturadas com atores estatais e não estatais no Brasil, complementadas com uma revisão de fontes secundárias, como documentos oficiais e trabalhos acadêmicos.

Colombia presents a revealing and much needed case study which helps us to understand the formulation of foreign policy on climate change in rising developing countries. This paper analyzes the main factors which shape Colombia’s position, and provides useful insights into the evolution of the country’s international stance on climate change and the role in it of the bargaining among government agencies and interest groups. It concludes that Colombia´s policy has been governed by its institutional structure, ecological vulnerability, emission abatement costs, wish to enhance its global prestige and seek benefits from international cooperation, strategic aims at the United Nations climate negotiations, and the limited influence of domestic pressure groups. Colombia presenta un revelador y muy necesario estudio de caso que ayuda a comprender la formulación de la política exterior con relación al cambio climático en países emergentes en vías de desarrollo. El presente artículo analiza los factores principales que determinan la posición de Colombia y provee perspectivas útiles de la evolución de la postura internacional sobre el cambio climático y el papel de este en las negociaciones entre agencias del gobierno y grupos de interés. Se concluye que la política colombiana ha tenido fuerte influencia de la estructura institucional, la vulnerabilidad ecológica, los costos de la reducción de emisiones, el deseo de reforzar el prestigio mundial y la búsqueda de beneficios por cooperación internacional, los objetivos estratégicos de las negociaciones sobre el clima de las Naciones Unidas y la limitada influencia de grupos de presión locales. a Colômbia apresenta um revelador e muito necessário estudo de caso que ajuda a compreender a formulação da política exterior a respeito da mudança climática em países emergentes em vias de desenvolvimento. Este artigo analisa os fatores principais que determinam a posição da Colômbia e oferece perspectivas úteis da evolução do posicionamento internacional sobre a mudança climática e o papel desta nas negociações entre agências do governo e grupos de interesse. Conclui-se que a política colombiana vem tendo forte influência da estrutura institucional, da vulnerabilidade ecológica, dos custos da redução de emissões, do desejo de reforçar o prestígio mundial, da busca de benefícios por cooperação internacional, dos objetivos estratégicos das negociações sobre o clima das Nações Unidas e da limitada influência de grupos de pressão locais.

Due to its impact on human health and its capacity to cause damage, disasters are one of the global problems that most concern the international community. However, and in spite of the efforts made by many health systems, the reduction of vulnerabilities and the lack of strategies to avoid or minimize risks have not received enough attention yet. As Cuba is located in an area of permanent danger of disasters, its health sector has accumulated considerable experience in the management of risks and in the assurance of less risky future scenarios, with active participation of the community and a planned and organized process to address the impact of climate change. This paper summarizes some of these experiences and describes the dangers, vulnerabilities, and risks of disasters in Cuba, its Civil Defense System, and planning and organization in the health sector for disaster reduction, as well as the main effects and challenges of climate change in the health system. Lessons learned and good practices support the key role of human resources to reduce vulnerabilities; the greatest challenges are to avoid or minimize risks, to advance research, to train professionals for climate change, and to optimize the organization of health systems and services in the country.Devido ao seu impacto na saúde humana e na sua capacidade de causar danos, os desastres são um dos problemas globais mais preocupantes para a comunidade internacional. No entanto, e apesar dos esforços feitos por numerosos sistemas de saúde, a atenção necessária ainda não foi oferecida para a redução de vulnerabilidades e a falta de estratégias que evitem ou minimizem os riscos. Como Cuba está localizada em uma área de permanente perigo de desastres, seu setor de saúde acumulou uma experiência considerável no gerenciamento de riscos e na garantia de cenários futuros menos arriscados, com a participação ativa da comunidade e um processo planejado e organizado para enfrentar o impacto das mudanças climáticas. Este artigo resume algumas dessas experiências e descreve os perigos, vulnerabilidades e riscos de desastres em Cuba, seu Sistema de Defesa Civil e planejamento e organização no setor da saúde para a redução de desastres, bem como os principais efeitos e desafios das mudanças climáticas no sistema de saúde. As lições aprendidas e as boas práticas ratificam o papel determinante dos recursos humanos para reduzir vulnerabilidades; o maior desafio é evitar ou minimizar riscos, avançar pesquisa, preparar profissionais para mudanças climáticas e otimizar a organização de sistemas e serviços de saúde no país.

In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Parana (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with the minimum temperature lower than 8 °C, the maximum temperature higher than 32 °C, average temperature between 16 and 23 °C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is greater in Historical simulation when compared to future scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the Normalseason.

Resumen Este artículo revisa el marco histórico de la explotación forestal y de la pérdida de la riqueza maderera y de la cobertura forestal en relación con el poblamiento rural propiciado por algunas políticas de colonización en la Península de Yucatán desde la década de 1950, como el Programa Nacional de Desmontes, o proyectos económicos como el arrocero, el azucarero y el ganadero. También se analizan los esfuerzos que actualmente se están llevando a cabo para mitigar e, incluso, revertir la deforestación con base en políticas públicas internacionales que han sido asumidas por las autoridades mexicanas. Este trabajo cualitativo es producto de la revisión de literatura académica e institucional. Permite advertir cómo el paso de la explotación forestal extractiva a la sustentable aún se sitúa en un contexto en el que la geopolítica es determinante. Abstract This article reviews the historical framework of logging and the loss of timber wealth and forest cover in relation to a rural settlement process caused by some colonization policies in the Yucatan Peninsula since the 1950s, such as the National Felling Program and some rice, sugar and livestock production projects. Efforts being made to mitigate and even reverse deforestation following international public policies that have been adopted by Mexican authorities are also discussed. This qualitative paper derives from a review of academic and institutional literature. It is concluded that the transition from extractive to sustainable logging is still placed in a context in which geopolitics is a determining factor. Resumo Este artigo revê o marco histórico da exploração florestal e da perda de riqueza madeireira e da cobertura florestal em relação à população rural causada por algumas políticas de colonização na Península de Iucatã desde a década de 1950, como o Programa Nacional de Desmantelamento, ou projetos econômicos como o arrozeiro, o açucareiro e o pecuário. Também se analisaram os esforços que atualmente são realizados para mitigar e até reverter o desmatamento com base em políticas públicas internacionais que têm sido empreendidas pelas autoridades mexicanas. Este trabalho qualitativo é o produto da revisão da literatura acadêmica e institucional. Permite observar como o caminho da exploração florestal extrativa em direção à sustentabilidade ainda está em um contexto em que a geopolítica é decisiva.

Extreme climate events over the La Plata basin (LPB) can produce significant impacts due to the importance of the regional agriculture and hydroelectric power production for the local economy. Progress on describing, projecting and understanding extremes in LPB, in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin Project, are reviewed. The paper is based on recent studies and publications, as well as some new diagnostics as indicators of works in progress, and can be considered as an update for the LPB region of previous reviews by Cavalcanti et al. (2015; J Hydrol 523:211-230) and Rusticucci (2012; Atmos Res 106:1-17). Despite the significant advances on regional extremes, some gaps have been identified, and many challenges remain. Much of the recent progress considers temperature and precipitation extremes on timescales varying from synoptic to long-term variability and climate change, essential for impact and vulnerability assessments. Research lines on extremes requiring further efforts include the relative roles of local versus remote forcings, the impact of land use and land management changes, the specific role of soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks as catalysts for heat waves, the impact of the local inhomogeneities in soil moisture, feedback and uncertainties in projections of extremes, as well as seasonal forecast and climate change attribution studies. We suggest combining intensive monitoring and modelling to address these issues. Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. National Institute of Space Research; Brasil Fil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Sörensson, Anna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: López de la Franca Arema, Noelia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Rivera, Juan Antonio. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Robledo, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Ambrizzi, Tercio. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Instituto Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas; Brasil Fil: Penalba, Olga Clorinda. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: da Rocha, R. P.. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Instituto Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas; Brasil Fil: Sanchez, E.. Universidad de Castilla-la Mancha. Facultad de Cs. Ambientales; España Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Pessacg, Natalia Liz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina Fil: Renom, Madeleine. Universidad de la República. Facultad de Ciencias; Uruguay Fil: Ruscica, Romina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Tencer, Barbara. University Of Victoria; Canadá Fil: Grimm, A. M.. Universidade Federal do Paraná; Brasil Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Cherchi, A.. Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia Fil: Tedeschi, R.. National Institute of Space Research; Brasil Fil: Zamboni, L.. Argonne National Laboratory; Estados Unidos

Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region's relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come. Resumo As mudanças climáticas exacerbarão, nas próximas décadas, a vulnerabilidade de populações, lugares e pessoas ao redor do mundo, especialmente nos países em desenvolvimento. Este artigo investiga cenários hipotéticos futuros de vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas para os próximos 30 anos, em 66 microrregiões do Estado de Minas Gerais. Com base no Índice de Alkire e Foster, são integradas as dimensões simuladas e projetadas de vulnerabilidade populacional em um indicador multidimensional, o qual mostra como cenários de mudanças de temperatura afetariam a vulnerabilidade relativa de cada região no futuro. Os resultados sugerem que as dimensões econômica e de saúde são as maiores contribuintes para o aumento da vulnerabilidade relacionada às alterações na temperatura média, com as regiões mais pobres e voltadas ao agronegócio constituindo as mais afetadas em cenários futuros. Resumen En las próximas décadas, el cambio climático exacerbará la vulnerabilidad de las poblaciones alrededor del mundo, especialmente en los países en desarrollo. En este artículo se investigan escenarios hipotéticos futuros de vulnerabilidad frente al cambio climático para los próximos 30 años en 66 microrregiones del estado de Minas Gerais. Sobre la base del Índice de Alkire y Foster, se integran en un indicador multidimensional las dimensiones simuladas y proyectadas de vulnerabilidad poblacional, mostrando cómo los escenarios de cambios de temperatura afectarían la vulnerabilidad relativa de cada región en el futuro. Los resultados sugieren que las dimensiones económica y de salud son las que más contribuyen en el aumento de la vulnerabilidad relacionada con las alteraciones de la temperatura media, y que las regiones más pobres y volcadas al agronegocio constituirán las más afectadas en estos escenarios futuros.

Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, actions to manage the drought risk impacts entail great complexity, such as the calculation of economic losses derived from the combination of severity, duration and frequency under uncertainties in the climate projections. Thus, new approaches of risk aversion are needed, as an integrated framework for resilience gap assessment, for water utilities to cope with droughts, thereby linking drivers of climate, hydrology and human demands. This paper aims to present the economic impacts of risk aversion for water utilities through a framework linking severity, duration and frequency (SDF) of droughts under climate change scenarios. This new model framework addresses the opportunity cost that represent the preparedness for risk aversion to cope with potential future impacts of droughts, involving a set of options for planning of water resources, under different demands and climate projections. The methodology integrates the hydrological simulation procedures, under radiative climate forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, from a regional climate model Eta-INPE, with time horizons of 2007–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, linked to Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) hydrologic model and under stationary and non-stationary water supply demand assumptions. The model framework is applied to the Cantareira Water Supply System for Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil, with severe vulnerability to droughts. By using hydrological simulations with WEAP, driven by Eta-INPE Regional Climatic Model base line scenarios (1962–2005), were characterized the SDF curves. On the one hand, water tariff price associated to calibrated and modelled scenarios constitute supply/demand proxies of the water warranty time delimited by drought duration. Then, profit loss analysis scenarios are assessed for the regional water utility. On the other hand, for drought resilience gap, results show water utility profit losses per period between 1.3 % and 10.3 % of the regional GDP in 2016. Although future economic impacts vary in a same order, non-stationary demand trends impose larger differences in the drought resilience gap, when the future securitization are linked to regional climate outputs.

To review if pollution and climate changes can influence respiratory tract infections in children. Data source: articles published on the subject in PubMed, SciELO, Bireme, EBSCO and UpTodate were reviewed. The following inclusion criteria were considered: scientific papers between 2002 and 2012, study design, the pediatric population, reference documents such as the CETESB and World Health Organization Summary of the data: We analyzed research that correlated respiratory viruses and climate and/or pollution changes. Respiratory syncytial virus has been the virus related most to changes in climate and humidity. Other "old and new" respiratory viruses such as Human Bocavirus, Metapneumovirus, Parechovirus and Parainfuenza would need to be investigated owing to their clinical importance. Although much has been studied with regard to the relationship between climate change and public health, specific studies about its influence on children's health remain scarce. Rever se a poluição e as alterações do clima podem influenciar nas infecções respiratórias de crianças. Fontes de dados: foram revisados artigos publicados sobre o tema no PubMed, SciELO, Bireme, EBSCO e UpToDate. Os seguintes critérios de inclusão foram levados em consideração: trabalhos científicos entre 2002 e 2012, delineamento de estudo, população pediátrica, documentos de referência, como Cetesb e Organização Mundial da Saúde. Síntese dos dados: foram analisadas as pesquisas que correlacionavam vírus respiratórios e alterações do clima e/ou poluição. O vírus sincicial respiratório tem sido o vírus mais relacionado com alterações climáticas e umidade. Outros "velhos e novos" vírus respiratórios, como parainfluenza (VPH), metapneumovírus humano (hMPV), bocavírus (HBoV) e parechovirus (HPeV), precisariam ser investigados pela sua importância clínica. Embora muito se tenha estudado sobre a relação das mudanças climáticas na saúde coletiva, estudos específicos sobre sua influência na saúde das crianças ainda são escassos.

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.