Search

Background Ovarian and tubal cancers are lethal gynaecological cancers, with over 50% of the patients diagnosed at advanced stage. Trial design Randomised controlled trial involving 27 primary care trusts adjacent to 13 trial centres based at NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Methods Participants Postmenopausal average-risk women, aged 50–74, with intact ovaries and no previous ovarian or current non-ovarian cancer. Interventions One of two annual screening strategies: (1) multimodal screening (MMS) using a longitudinal CA125 algorithm with repeat CA125 testing and transvaginal scan (TVS) as second line test (2) ultrasound screening (USS) using TVS alone with repeat scan to confirm any abnormality. The control (C) group had no screening. Follow-up was through linkage to national registries, postal follow-up questionnaires and direct communication with trial centres and participants. Objective To assess comprehensively risks and benefits of ovarian cancer screening in the general population. Outcome Primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer as assigned by an independent outcomes review committee. Secondary outcomes included incidence and stage at diagnosis of ovarian and tubal cancer, compliance, performance characteristics, harms and cost-effectiveness of the two screening strategies and a bioresource for future research. Randomisation The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to MMS, USS and C groups in a 1:1:2 ratio. Blinding Investigators and participants were unblinded and outcomes review committee was masked to randomisation group. Analyses Primary analyses were by intention to screen, comparing separately MMS and USS with C using the Versatile test. Results Recruitment 1,243,282 women were invited and 205,090 attended for recruitment between April 2001 and September 2005. Randomised 202,638 women: 50,640 MMS, 50,639 USS and 101,359 C group. Numbers analysed for primary outcome 202,562 (>99.9%): 50,625 (>99.9%) MMS, 50,623 (>99.9%) USS, and 101,314 (>99.9%) C group. Outcome Women in MMS and USS groups underwent 345,570 and 327,775 annual screens between randomisation and 31 December 2011. At median follow-up of 16.3 (IQR 15.1–17.3) years, 2055 women developed ovarian or tubal cancer: 522 (1.0% of 50,625) MMS, 517 (1.0% of 50,623) USS, and 1016 (1.0% of 101314) in C group. Compared to the C group, in the MMS group, the incidence of Stage I/II disease was 39.2% (95% CI 16.1 to 66.9) higher and stage III/IV 10.2% (95% CI –21.3 to 2.4) lower. There was no difference in stage in the USS group. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0.6%) MMS, 291 (0.6%) USS, and 619 (0.6%) C group. There was no significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths in either MMS (p = 0.580) or USS (p = 0.360) groups compared to the C group. Overall compliance with annual screening episode was 80.8% (345,570/420,047) in the MMS and 78.0% (327,775/420,047) in the USS group. For ovarian and tubal cancers diagnosed within one year of the last test in a screening episode, in the MMS group, the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 83.8% (95% CI 78.7 to 88.1), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8 to 99.9), and 28.8% (95% CI 25.5 to 32.2) and in the USS group, 72.2% (95% CI 65.9 to 78.0), 99.5% (95% CI 99.5 to 99.5), and 9.1% (95% CI 7.8 to 10.5) respectively. The final within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was not undertaken as there was no mortality reduction. A bioresource (UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women’s Cohort) of longitudinal outcome data and over 0.5 million serum samples including serial annual samples in women in the MMS group was established and to date has been used in many new studies, mainly focused on early detection of cancer. Harms Both screening tests (venepuncture and TVS) were associated with minor complications with low (8.6/100,000 screens MMS; 18.6/100,000 screens USS) complication rates. Screening itself did not cause anxiety unless more intense repeat testing was required following abnormal screens. In the MMS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 2.3 (489 false positives; 212 cancers) women in the MMS group had unnecessary false-positive (benign adnexal pathology or normal adnexa) surgery. Overall, 14 (489/345,572 annual screens) underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. In the USS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 10 (1630 false positives; 164 cancers) underwent unnecessary false-positive surgery. Overall, 50 (1630/327,775 annual screens) women underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. Conclusions Population screening for ovarian and tubal cancer for average-risk women using these strategies should not be undertaken. Decreased incidence of Stage III/IV cancers during multimodal screening did not translate to mortality reduction. Researchers should be cautious about using early stage as a surrogate outcome in screening trials. Meanwhile the bioresource provides a unique opportunity to evaluate early cancer detection tests. Funding Long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015–2020) – National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001–2014) – Medical Research Council (MRC) (G9901012/G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MR_UU_12023).

Background Recently, we showed a >60% difference in 5-year survival for patients with tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) when stratified by a 101-gene mRNA expression prognostic signature. Given the varied patient outcomes, this study aimed to translate prognostic mRNA markers into protein expression assays by immunohistochemistry and validate their survival association in HGSC. Methods Two prognostic genes, FOXJ1 and GMNN, were selected based on high-quality antibodies, correlation with protein expression and variation in immunohistochemical scores in a preliminary cohort (n = 134 and n = 80, respectively). Six thousand four hundred and thirty-four (FOXJ1) and 5470 (GMNN) formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded ovarian neoplasms (4634 and 4185 HGSC, respectively) represented on tissue microarrays from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium underwent immunohistochemical staining and scoring, then univariate and multivariate survival analysis. Results Consistent with mRNA, FOXJ1 protein expression exhibited a linear, increasing association with improved overall survival in HGSC patients. Women with >50% expression had the most favourable outcomes (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.67–0.91, p 35% GMNN expression showed a trend for better outcomes, though this was not significant. Conclusion We provide foundational evidence for the prognostic value of FOXJ1 in HGSC, validating the prior mRNA-based prognostic association by immunohistochemistry.

Early detection of ovarian cancer has the potential to impact mortality. A multimodal screening strategy where rising CA125 values over time, analyzed with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), triggers transvaginal sonography and possible surgery has high sensitivity and specificity, but still fails to detect the 20% of early-stage cases that do not express CA125. Use of multiple biomarkers could detect cases missed by CA125. We have studied the sensitivity and lead time of a multi-marker panel (CA125, HE4, MMP-7, and CA 72-4) compared with CA125 alone. We used PRoBE design principles to select preclinical longitudinal specimens from 75 women (50 screen-positive, 25 screen-negative) who developed invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (3–5 serial specimens each) and 547 corresponding healthy controls (1–10 serial specimens each) from the ovarian cancer screening trial, UKCTOCS, in a blinded fashion. We measured the multi-marker concentrations in ultra-low serum volumes (16 μL) utilizing multiplexed bead-based immunoassays with low detection limits, high inter- and intra-assay precision, negligible cross-reactivity, and good correlation with standard immunoassays. While, at least one of the complementary biomarkers rose with CA125 in 44% (22/50) of screen-positive cases, there was no advantage in lead time over CA125. Therefore, we developed single-marker longitudinal algorithms (ROCA-like) to determine the presence of a change point to distinguish between the cases and controls. Using these algorithms, at 98% specificity, HE4 and CA72-4 identified 16% (4/25) of screen-negative cases, while MMP-7 identified none. Taken together, HE4 and CA72-4 show promise as complementary biomarkers to CA125 for longitudinal screening.

Tables 1-4

Figures 1-3

Supplementary figure legend

Supplemental Figure 2. VEGFR TKIs inhibit the migration of NSCLC cells with KDR CNGs.

Supplementary figures, tables and materials & methods Supplementary Figure 1. Schematic presentation of steps in immunoassay development, validation and studies for screening TP53 autoantibody in human serum samples. Supplementary Figure 2. Identifying a common cut-off value for TP53 autoantibody immunoassay. Supplementary Table 1. Characteristics of patients with invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer in MDACC-NROSS set Supplementary Table 2. Characteristics of patients with invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer in AOCS set Supplementary Table 3. Characteristics of patients with invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer by stage and primary site in the UKCTOCS study Supplementary Figure 3. Examples of longitudinal analysis of CA125 and TP53 autoantibody titers in pre-diagnostic serial serum samples from ovarian cancer patients in the UKCTOCS Study. Supplementary Figure 4. ROC curve analysis for TP53 autoantibody and CA125 biomarkers in UKCTOCS trial. Supplementary Figure 5. Comparison of TP53 autoantibody titers between cancer cases with TP53 wild-type and mutant genes in the AOCS biobanking study. Supplementary Figure 6. The list of TP53 mutant protein candidates for preliminary screening of autoantibody against specific TP53 mutant proteins. Supplementary Table 4. Summary of specific TP53 mutant autoantibody titers of individual cancer patients with corresponding TP53 protein mutations in the AOCS biobanking study Supplementary Table 5. Summary of multiplex immunoassay results for screening TP53 mutant-specific autoantibody using samples from the AOCS biobanking study.

Purpose: VEGF pathway inhibitors have been investigated as therapeutic agents in the treatment of non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) because of its central role in angiogenesis. These agents have improved survival in patients with advanced NSCLC, but the effects have been modest. Although VEGFR2/KDR is typically localized to the vasculature, amplification of KDR has reported to occur in 9% to 30% of the DNA from different lung cancers. We investigated the signaling pathways activated downstream of KDR and whether KDR amplification is associated with benefit in patients with NSCLC treated with the VEGFR inhibitor vandetanib.Methods: NSCLC cell lines with or without KDR amplification were studied for the effects of VEGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) on cell viability and migration. Archival tumor samples collected from patients with platinum-refractory NSCLC in the phase III ZODIAC study of vandetanib plus docetaxel or placebo plus docetaxel (N = 294) were screened for KDR amplification by FISH.Results: KDR amplification was associated with VEGF-induced activation of mTOR, p38, and invasiveness in NSCLC cell lines. However, VEGFR TKIs did not inhibit proliferation of NSCLC cell lines with KDR amplification. VEGFR inhibition decreased cell motility as well as expression of HIF1α in KDR-amplified NSCLC cells. In the ZODIAC study, KDR amplification was observed in 15% of patients and was not associated with improved progression-free survival, overall survival, or objective response rate for the vandetanib arm.Conclusions: Preclinical studies suggest KDR activates invasion but not survival pathways in KDR-amplified NSCLC models. Patients with NSCLC whose tumor had KDR amplification were not associated with clinical benefit for vandetanib in combination with docetaxel. Clin Cancer Res; 22(8); 1940–50. ©2015 AACR.

Purpose: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), women in the multimodal (MMS) arm had a serum CA125 test (first-line), with those at increased risk, having repeat CA125/ultrasound (second-line test). CA125 was interpreted using the “Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm” (ROCA). We report on performance of other serial algorithms and a single CA125 threshold as a first-line screen in the UKCTOCS dataset.Experimental Design: 50,083 post-menopausal women who attended 346,806 MMS screens were randomly split into training and validation sets, following stratification into cases (ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers) and controls. The two longitudinal algorithms, a new serial algorithm, method of mean trends (MMT) and the parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) were trained in the training set and tested in the blinded validation set and the performance characteristics, including that of a single CA125 threshold, were compared.Results: The area under receiver operator curve (AUC) was significantly higher (P = 0.01) for MMT (0.921) compared with CA125 single threshold (0.884). At a specificity of 89.5%, sensitivities for MMT [86.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 78.4–91.9] and PEB (88.5%; 95% CI, 80.6–93.4) were similar to that reported for ROCA (sensitivity 87.1%; specificity 87.6%; AUC 0.915) and significantly higher than the single CA125 threshold (73.1%; 95% CI, 63.6–80.8).Conclusions: These findings from the largest available serial CA125 dataset in the general population provide definitive evidence that longitudinal algorithms are significantly superior to simple cutoff values for ovarian cancer screening. Use of these newer algorithms requires incorporation into a multimodal strategy. The results highlight the importance of incorporating serial change in biomarker levels in cancer screening/early detection strategies. Clin Cancer Res; 24(19); 4726–33. ©2018 AACR.

Supplemental Figure 1. (A) Calu-1 cells were treated with VEGF (50 ng/ml) for 15 minutes and phospho-p38 levels were evaluated by Western blotting. VEGF treatment resulted in activation of p38, and this was blocked with the addition of VEGFR TKIs axitinib or sorafenib. (B) A549, H23, and Calu-1 cells express minimal levels of VEGFR1 as determined by ELISA assay. SKNAS neuroblastoma cells serve as a positive control.

MMT / PEB values in training and validation of the algorithms based on the primary analysis

In the TCGA NSCLC dataset there was a significantly greater prevalence of p53 mutations in patients with KDR CNG compared to KDR CNG negative patients (p = 0.001).

Purpose: The TP53 tumor-suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high-grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 that might improve early detection.Experimental Design: An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).Results: Using a cutoff value of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody was elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study, and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months before CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53.Conclusions: TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 holds promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5912–22. ©2017 AACR.

Genetic and non-genetic factors contribute to breast cancer development. An epigenome-based signature capturing these components in easily accessible samples could identify women at risk. Here, we analyse the DNA methylome in 2,818 cervical, 357 and 227 matched buccal and blood samples respectively, and 42 breast tissue samples from women with and without breast cancer. Utilising cervical liquid-based cytology samples, we develop the DNA methylation-based Women’s risk IDentification for Breast Cancer index (WID-BC-index) that identifies women with breast cancer with an AUROC (Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic) of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80–0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76–0.86) in internal and external validation sets, respectively. CpGs at progesterone receptor binding sites hypomethylated in normal breast tissue of women with breast cancer or in BRCA mutation carriers are also hypomethylated in cervical samples of women with poor prognostic breast cancer. Our data indicate that a systemic epigenetic programming defect is highly prevalent in women who develop breast cancer. Further studies validating the WID-BC-index may enable clinical implementation for monitoring breast cancer risk.

Funder: Department of Health; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000276, Funder: Ontario Research Fund, Funder: CHU de Quebec Foundation, Funder: Fondation du cancer du sein du Qu��bec; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100016328, Funder: The Eve Appeal, Background: Epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify women at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention. Methods: We developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for women of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D and BRIP1, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively. Results: Based on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the first to 99th percentiles of the EOC risk distribution. The corresponding range for women with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9%���10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusion: This multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among women with FH of cancer and/or moderate-risk and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Artificial Intelligence methods can be very effective in classification tasks that involve the processing of ordered sequences of data. Here we explore two different approaches to tackle the problem of ovarian cancer detection from a sequence of longitudinal measurements of several biomarkers. The first approach relies on a Bayesian hierarchical model whose fundamental assumption is that measurements taken from case subjects exhibit a changepoint in one or several biomarkers. The second approach is a purely discriminative machine learning algorithm based on the use of recurrent neural networks, a kind of artificial neural network specially suited to the processing of inputs of different lengths.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa and ovarian and tubal cancer. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING Thirteen NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. POPULATION A total of 202 506 postmenopausal women recruited between 2001 and 2005 to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and followed up until 31 December 2014. METHODS Multiple sources (questionnaires, hospital notes, Hospital Episodes Statistics, national cancer/death registries, ultrasound reports) were used to obtain accurate data on hysterectomy (with conservation of one or both adnexa) and outcomes censored at bilateral oophorectomy, death, ovarian/tubal cancer diagnosis, loss to follow up or 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer (WHO 2014) on independent outcome review. RESULTS Hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa was reported in 41 912 (20.7%; 41 912/202 506) women. Median follow up was 11.1 years (interquartile range 9.96-12.04), totalling >2.17 million woman-years. Among women who had undergone hysterectomy, 0.55% (231/41 912) were diagnosed with ovarian/tubal cancer, compared with 0.59% (945/160 594) of those with intact uterus. Multivariable analysis showed no evidence of an association between hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal cancer (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.13, P = 0.765). CONCLUSIONS This large cohort study provides further independent validation that hysterectomy is not associated with alteration of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer risk. These data are important both for clinical counselling and for refining risk prediction models. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT Hysterectomy does not alter risk of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer.

BackgroundEpithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify females at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention.MethodsWe developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for females of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) inBRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51DandBRIP1, a polygenic risk score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively.ResultsBased on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the 1stto 99thpercentiles of the EOC risk-distribution. The corresponding range for females with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9% to 10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well-calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk.ConclusionThis multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among females with FH of cancer and/or moderate- and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Background Low socio-economic position (SEP) is a risk factor for multiple health outcomes, but its molecular imprints in the body remain unclear. Methods We examined SEP as a determinant of serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles in ∼30 000 adults and 4000 children across 10 UK and Finnish cohort studies. Results In risk-factor-adjusted analysis of 233 metabolic measures, low educational attainment was associated with 37 measures including higher levels of triglycerides in small high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and lower levels of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), omega-3 fatty acids, apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles (including levels of their respective lipid constituents) and cholesterol measures across different density lipoproteins. Among adults whose father worked in manual occupations, associations with apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles and HDL-2 cholesterol remained after adjustment for SEP in later life. Among manual workers, levels of glutamine were higher compared with non-manual workers. All three indicators of low SEP were associated with lower DHA, omega-3 fatty acids and HDL diameter. At all ages, children of manual workers had lower levels of DHA as a proportion of total fatty acids. Conclusions Our work indicates that social and economic factors have a measurable impact on human physiology. Lower SEP was independently associated with a generally unfavourable metabolic profile, consistent across ages and cohorts. The metabolites we found to be associated with SEP, including DHA, are known to predict cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline in later life and may contribute to health inequalities.

Background: There is a trend to increasing use of routinely collected health data to ascertain outcome measures in trials. We report on completeness and accuracy of national ovarian cancer and death registration in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).Methods: Of the 202638 participants, 202632 were successfully linked and followed through national cancer and death registries of Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Women with registrations of any of 19 pre-defined ICD-10 codes suggestive of tubo-ovarian cancer or notification of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer from hospital episode statistics or trial sites were identified. Copies of hospital and primary care notes were retrieved and reviewed by an independent outcomes review committee. National registration of site and cause of death as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer (C56/C57/C48) obtained up to three months after trial censorship was compared to that assigned by outcomes review (reference standard).Results: Outcome review was undertaken in 3110 women on whom notification was received between 2001 and 2014. Ovarian cancer was confirmed in 1324 of whom 1125 had a relevant cancer registration. Sensitivity and specificity of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer registration was 85.0%(1125/1324; 95%CI 83.7%-86.2%) and 94.0%(1679/1786; 95%CI93.2%-94.8%), respectively. Of 2041 death registrations reviewed, 681 were confirmed to have a tubo-ovarian cancer of whom 605 had relevant death registration. Sensitivity and specificity was 88.8%(605/681; 95%CI86.4%-91.2%) and 96.7%(1482/1533; 95%CI95.8%-97.6%%) respectively. When multiple electronic health record sources were considered, sensitivity for cancer site increased to 91.1%(1206/1324; 95%CI89.4%-92.5%) and for cause of death 94.0%(640/681; 95%CI91.9%-95.5%).Of 1232 with cancer registration, 8.7%(107/1232) were wrongly designated as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers by the registry and 4.0%(47/1172) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancers were mis-registered. In 656 with death registrations, 7.8%(51/656) were wrongly assigned as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers whilst 6.2%(40/645) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancer deaths were mis-registered.Conclusion: Follow-up of trial participants for tubo-ovarian cancer using national registry data will result in incomplete ascertainment particularly of site due in part to the latency of registration. This can be reduced by using other routinely collected data such as hospital episode statistics. Central adjudication by experts though resource intensive adds value by improving accuracy of diagnoses. Trial registration: ISRCTN22488978, date of trial registration: 6/4/2000

We present a quantitative study of the performance of two automatic methods for the early detection of ovarian cancer that can exploit longitudinal measurements of multiple biomarkers. The study is carried out for a subset of the data collected in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). We use statistical analysis techniques, such as the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, for evaluating the performance of two techniques that aim at the classification of subjects as either healthy or suffering from the disease using time-series of multiple biomarkers as inputs. The first method relies on a Bayesian hierarchical model that establishes connections within a set of clinically interpretable parameters. The second technique is a purely discriminative method that employs a recurrent neural network (RNN) for the binary classification of the inputs. For the available dataset, the performance of the two detection schemes is similar (the area under ROC curve is 0.98 for the combination of three biomarkers) and the Bayesian approach has the advantage that its outputs (parameters estimates and their uncertainty) can be further analysed by a clinical expert.

Purpose: The TP53 tumor-suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high-grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 that might improve early detection. Experimental Design: An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Results: Using a cutoff value of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody was elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study, and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months before CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53. Conclusions: TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 holds promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5912–22. ©2017 AACR.

Background: Tubo-ovarian cancer (OC) continues to be the most lethal of all gynaecological cancers. Over half of women are diagnosed with late stage (III/IV) disease, which has a five-year survival rate of 11%. Socioeconomic status (SES) has been shown to have an impact on outcomes of several cancer types, including OC. This study aims to investigate any potential association between SES and stage at diagnosis of OC. Methods: Women from the non-screening arm of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) with a confirmed diagnosis of OC prior to 01 January 2015 and an English index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score were eligible for the study. The association between IMD and OC stage (FIGO) was analysed using an ordinal logistic regression model adjusted for age at diagnosis and BMI. Results: Four-hundred and fifty seven women were eligible for inclusion in the primary analysis. The odds of being diagnosed with the higher dichotomization of stage (I vs. II/III/IV, I/II vs. III/IV, I/II/III vs. IV) was 1.29 (p = 0.017, 95% CI: 1.048&ndash, 1.592) per unit SD (standard deviation) increase in IMD. This translates to a 29% increase in odds of being diagnosed at the higher stage per each unit SD increase in IMD. Conclusion: Increased deprivation is consistently associated with a higher probability of being diagnosed with later stage OC.

Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). We evaluated performance of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test in predicting CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods: ELF was measured in blinded samples from 58 participants with selfreported high alcohol use and/or BMI ≥25kg/m2 who developed liver-related events (LRE) (cases), and in 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8*5 years. Findings: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 9*8 hazard ratio (HR) for LRE was 2*21 (unadjusted model) and 2*18 (adjusted for deprivation and selfreported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia or diabetes). At a threshold of 10*51, HR was 4*88 (unadjusted) and 4*62 (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating timedependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 9*8 were 1*85 (unadjusted) and 1*80 (adjusted), and at a threshold of 10*51 HRs were 1*94 (unadjusted) and 2*05 (adjusted). Interpretation: This study demonstrates that the ELF test predicts complications of CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the possible role for ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. Funding Statement: No external funding for this nested study. The trial, UKCTOCS, was funded by Medical Research Council (G9901012 and G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. UM and WMR are supported by the NIHR University College London Hospitals (UCLH) Biomedical Research Centre. SA was funded by Abcodia Pvt Ltd. Declaration of Interests: UM has stocks awarded to her by UCL in Abcodia Pvt. Ltd. WMR is an inventor of the ELF test and has received fees from Siemens Healthineers for lecturing, travel, and consulting and research support. All the other authors declare no conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The current study was approved by the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee London - Bentham (Ref: 05/Q0505/57) on 10th August 2011.

Early detection of ovarian cancer has the potential to impact mortality. A multimodal screening strategy where rising CA125 values over time, analyzed with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), triggers transvaginal sonography and possible surgery has high sensitivity and specificity, but still fails to detect the 20% of early-stage cases that do not express CA125. Use of multiple biomarkers could detect cases missed by CA125. We have studied the sensitivity and lead time of a multi-marker panel (CA125, HE4, MMP-7, and CA 72-4) compared with CA125 alone. We used PRoBE design principles to select preclinical longitudinal specimens from 75 women (50 screen-positive, 25 screen-negative) who developed invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (3–5 serial specimens each) and 547 corresponding healthy controls (1–10 serial specimens each) from the ovarian cancer screening trial, UKCTOCS, in a blinded fashion. We measured the multi-marker concentrations in ultra-low serum volumes (16 μL) utilizing multiplexed bead-based immunoassays with low detection limits, high inter- and intra-assay precision, negligible cross-reactivity, and good correlation with standard immunoassays. While, at least one of the complementary biomarkers rose with CA125 in 44% (22/50) of screen-positive cases, there was no advantage in lead time over CA125. Therefore, we developed single-marker longitudinal algorithms (ROCA-like) to determine the presence of a change point to distinguish between the cases and controls. Using these algorithms, at 98% specificity, HE4 and CA72-4 identified 16% (4/25) of screen-negative cases, while MMP-7 identified none. Taken together, HE4 and CA72-4 show promise as complementary biomarkers to CA125 for longitudinal screening.

Highlights • Ninety-two & 99% of colorectal cancers were registered after one & six years. • Hospital Episode Statistics tend to capture events unregistered after one year. • Self-reporting by women aged ≥50 was less reliable and had low respondents. • Electronic health records in the UK are suitable for studying colorectal cancer in women., Background Electronic health records are frequently used for cancer epidemiology. We report on their quality for ascertaining colorectal cancer (CRC) in UK women. Methods Population-based, retrospective cohort study nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Postmenopausal women aged 50–74 who were diagnosed with CRC during 2001–11 following randomisation to the UKCTOCS were identified and their diagnosis confirmed with their treating clinician. The sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of cancer and death registries, hospital episode statistics, and self-reporting were calculated by pairwise comparisons to the treating clinician’s confirmation, while specificity and negative predictive value were estimated relative to expected cases. Results Notification of CRC events were received for 1,085 women as of 24 May 2011. Responses were received from 61% (660/1,085) of clinicians contacted. Nineteen women were excluded (18 no diagnosis date, one diagnosed after cut-off). Of the 641 eligible, 514 had CRC, 24 had a benign polyp, and 103 had neither diagnosis. The sensitivity of cancer registrations at one- and six-years post-diagnosis was 92 (95% CI 90–94) and 99% (97–100), respectively, with a PPV of 95% (95% CI 92/93–97). The sensitivity & PPV of cancer registrations (at one-year post-diagnosis) & hospital episode statistics combined were 98 (96–99) and 92% (89–94), respectively. Conclusions Cancer and death registrations in the UK are a reliable resource for CRC ascertainment in women. Hospital episode statistics can supplement delays in cancer registration. Self-reporting seems less reliable.

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified >30 common SNPs associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We evaluated the combined effects of EOC susceptibility SNPs on predicting EOC risk in an independent prospective cohort study. Methods We genotyped ovarian cancer susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a nested case–control study (750 cases and 1428 controls) from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed and their associations with EOC risk were evaluated using logistic regression. The absolute risk of developing ovarian cancer by PRS percentiles was calculated. Results The association between serous PRS and serous EOC (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.58, p=1.3×10–11) was stronger than the association between overall PRS and overall EOC risk (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.45, p=5.4×10–10). Women in the top fifth percentile of the PRS had a 3.4-fold increased EOC risk compared with women in the bottom 5% of the PRS, with the absolute EOC risk by age 80 being 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively, for the two groups of women in the population. Conclusion PRSs can be used to predict future risk of developing ovarian cancer for women in the general population. Incorporation of PRSs into risk prediction models for EOC could inform clinical decision-making and health management.

Purpose: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), women in the multimodal (MMS) arm had a serum CA125 test (first-line), with those at increased risk, having repeat CA125/ultrasound (second-line test). CA125 was interpreted using the “Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm” (ROCA). We report on performance of other serial algorithms and a single CA125 threshold as a first-line screen in the UKCTOCS dataset. Experimental Design: 50,083 post-menopausal women who attended 346,806 MMS screens were randomly split into training and validation sets, following stratification into cases (ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers) and controls. The two longitudinal algorithms, a new serial algorithm, method of mean trends (MMT) and the parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) were trained in the training set and tested in the blinded validation set and the performance characteristics, including that of a single CA125 threshold, were compared. Results: The area under receiver operator curve (AUC) was significantly higher (P = 0.01) for MMT (0.921) compared with CA125 single threshold (0.884). At a specificity of 89.5%, sensitivities for MMT [86.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 78.4–91.9] and PEB (88.5%; 95% CI, 80.6–93.4) were similar to that reported for ROCA (sensitivity 87.1%; specificity 87.6%; AUC 0.915) and significantly higher than the single CA125 threshold (73.1%; 95% CI, 63.6–80.8). Conclusions: These findings from the largest available serial CA125 dataset in the general population provide definitive evidence that longitudinal algorithms are significantly superior to simple cutoff values for ovarian cancer screening. Use of these newer algorithms requires incorporation into a multimodal strategy. The results highlight the importance of incorporating serial change in biomarker levels in cancer screening/early detection strategies. Clin Cancer Res; 24(19); 4726–33. ©2018 AACR.

Background Transvaginal ultrasound and serum CA125 are routinely used for differential diagnosis of pelvic adnexal mass. Use of human epididymis 4 was approved in the United States in 2011. However, there is scarcity of studies evaluating the additional value of human epididymis 4. Objective The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance characteristics of transvaginal ultrasound, CA125, and human epididymis 4 for differential diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses. Study Design This was a cohort study nested within the screen arms of the multicenter randomized controlled trial, United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, based in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. In United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 48,230 women randomized to transvaginal ultrasound screening and 50,078 to multimodal screening (serum CA125 interpreted by Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm with second line transvaginal ultrasound) underwent the first (prevalence) screen. Women with adnexal lesions and/or persistently elevated risk were clinically assessed and underwent surgery or follow-up for a median of 10.9 years. Banked samples taken within 6 months of transvaginal ultrasound from all clinically assessed women were assayed for human epididymis 4 and CA125. Area under the curve and sensitivity for diagnosing ovarian cancer of multiple penalized logistic regression models incorporating logCA125, log human epididymis 4, age, and simple ultrasound features of the adnexal mass were compared. Results Of 1590 (158 multimodal, 1432 ultrasound) women with adnexal masses, 78 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (48 invasive epithelial ovarian, 14 type I, 34 type II; 24 borderline epithelial; 6 nonepithelial) within 1 year of scan. The area under the curve (0.893 vs 0.896; P = .453) and sensitivity (74.4% vs 75.6% ;P = .564) at fixed specificity of 90% of the model incorporating age, ultrasound, and CA125 were similar to that also including human epididymis 4. Both models had high sensitivity for invasive epithelial ovarian (89.6%) and type II (>91%) cancers. Conclusion Our population cohort study suggests that human epididymis 4 adds little value to concurrent use of CA125 and transvaginal ultrasound in the differential diagnosis of adnexal masses in postmenopausal women.

Background: It has been suggested that lower UK cancer survival may be due to incomplete case ascertainment by cancer registries. Methods: We assessed concordance between self-reported breast, bowel and lung cancer and cancer registration (CR) for 1995–2007 in England and Wales in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. Results: Concordance of breast cancer CR was higher (94.7%:95% CI: 94.1–95.3%) than for bowel (85.1%:95% CI: 82.1–87.8%) and lung (85.4%:95% CI: 76.3–92.0%). CR concordance was lower in breast cancer (94.5% vs 98.8%) survivors compared with deceased but the difference was small. No difference was found for bowel (85.3% vs 94.6%) or lung (87.1% vs 90.5%) cancer. Conclusion: Concordance of CR and self-reported cancer is high. Incomplete registration is unlikely to be a major cause of lower UK survival rates.

Background: Most studies use hospital data to calculate postoperative complication rates (PCRs). We report on improving PCR estimates through use of patient-reporting. Methods: A prospective cohort study of major surgery performed at 10 UK gynaecological cancer centres was undertaken. Hospitals entered the data contemporaneously into an online database. Patients were sent follow-up letters to capture postoperative complications. Grade II–V (Clavien–Dindo classification) patient-reported postoperative complications were verified from hospital records. Postoperative complication rate was defined as the proportion of surgeries with a Grade II–V postoperative complication. Results: Patient replies were received for 1462 (68%) of 2152 surgeries undertaken between April 2010 and February 2012. Overall, 452 Grade II–V (402 II, 50 III–V) complications were reported in 379 of the 1462 surgeries. This included 172 surgeries with 200 hospital-reported complications and 231 with 280 patient-reported complications. All (100% concordance) 36 Grade III–V and 158 of 280 (56.4% concordance) Grade II patient-reported complications were verified on hospital case-note review. The PCR using hospital-reported data was 11.8% (172 out of 1462; 95% CI 11–14), patient-reported was 15.8% (231 out of 1462; 95% CI 14–17.8), hospital and verified patient-reported was 19.4% (283 out of 1462; 95% CI 17.4–21.4) and all data were 25.9% (379 out of 1462; 95% CI 24–28). After excluding Grade II complications, the hospital and patient verified Grade III–V PCR was 3.3% (48 out of 1462; 95% CI 2.5–4.3). Conclusion: This is the first prospective study of postoperative complications we are aware of in gynaecological oncology to include the patient-reported data. Patient-reporting is invaluable for obtaining complete information on postoperative complications. Primary care case-note review is likely to improve verification rates of patient-reported Grade II complications.

Background: There is an urgent need for biomarkers for the early detection of ovarian cancer (OC). The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes in serum levels of lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), glucose-regulated protein, 78 kDa (GRP78), calprotectin and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 (IGFBP2) are observed before clinical presentation and to assess the performance of these markers alone and in combination with CA125 for early detection. Methods: This nested case–control study used samples from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. The sample set consisted of 482 serum samples from 49 OC subjects and 31 controls, with serial samples spanning up to 7 years pre-diagnosis. The set was divided into the following: (I) a discovery set, which included all women with only two samples from each woman, the first at32 months to diagnosis; and (ii) a corroboration set, which included all the serial samples from the same women spanning the 7-year period. Lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase, SHBG, GRP78, calprotectin and IGFBP2 were measured using ELISA. The performance of the markers to detect cancers pre-diagnosis was assessed. Results: A combined threshold model IGFBP2 >78.5 ng ml−1 : LCAT 35 U ml−1 outperformed CA125 alone for the earlier detection of OC. The threshold model was able to identify the most aggressive Type II cancers. In addition, it increased the lead time by 5–6 months and identified 26% of Type I subjects and 13% of Type II subjects that were not identified by CA125 alone. Conclusions: Combined biomarker panels (IGFBP2, LCAT and CA125) outperformed CA125 up to 3 years pre-diagnosis, identifying cancers missed by CA125, providing increased diagnostic lead times for Type I and Type II OC. The model identified more aggressive Type II cancers, with women crossing the threshold dying earlier, indicating that these markers can improve on the sensitivity of CA125 alone for the early detection of OC.

Objective There has been considerable interest in the impact of reproductive factors on health but there are little data on how these have varied over time. We explore trends in reproductive/lifestyle factors of postmenopausal British women by analysing self-reported data from participants of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Design Prospective birth cohort analysis. Setting Population cohort invited between 2001 and 2005 from age-sex registers of 27 Primary Care Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and recruited through 13 National Health Service Trusts. Participants 202 638 postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years at randomisation to UKCTOCS between April 2001 and October 2005. Interventions Women were stratified into the following six birth cohorts (1925–1929, 1930–1934, 1935–1939, 1940–1944, 1945–1949, 1950–1955) based on year of birth. Self-reported data on reproductive factors provided at recruitment were explored using tabular and graphical summaries to examine for differences between the birth cohorts. Outcome measures Trends in mean age at menarche and menopause, use of oral contraceptives, change in family size, infertility treatments, tubal ligation and hysterectomy rates. Results Women born between 1935 and 1955 made up 86% of the cohort. Median age at menarche decreased from 13.4 for women born between 1925 and 1929 to 12.8 for women born between 1950 and 1955. Increased use of the oral contraceptives, infertility treatments and smaller family size was observed in the younger birth cohorts. Tubal ligation rates increased for those born between 1925 and 1945, but this increase did not persist in subsequent cohorts. Hysterectomy rates (17–20%) did not change over time. Conclusions The trends seen in this large cohort are likely to reflect the reproductive history of the UK female postmenopausal population of similar age. Since these are risk factors for hormone-related cancers, these trends are important in understanding the changing incidence of these cancers. Trial registration number International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number: 22488978.

ObjectiveThe aim of the study was to perform a preliminary comparison of quality of life (QoL) and patient satisfaction in individualized nurse-led follow-up versus conventional medical follow-up in ovarian cancer.MethodsOne hundred twelve women who received a diagnosis of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer, completed primary treatment by surgery alone or with chemotherapy, irrespective of outcome with regard to remission, and expected survival of more than 3 months. Fifty-seven participants were randomized to individualized follow-up and 55 patients to conventional follow-up. Well-being was measured at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after randomization for QoL (QLQ-C30 [European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire], QLQ-Ov28), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and a Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ-III). The primary endpoints were the effects of follow-up on each of the scores (via hierarchical mixed-effects model) and on relapse-free time (via Cox model). The total cost of follow-up was compared between each group.ResultsThere was evidence for a QoL and patient satisfaction benefit for individualized versus standard follow-up (QLQ-C30, P = 0.013; 95% confidence interval, −0.03 to −0.001; PSQ-III P = 0.002; 95% confidence interval, −0.003 to −0.015; QLQ-Ov28, P = 0.14). Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale data provided no evidence in favor of either treatment (P = 0.42). Delivered to protocol individualized follow-up resulted in a delay in the presentation of symptomatic relapse (P = 0.04), although the effect on survival in this study is unknown. Cost was £700 lower on average for the individualized follow-up group, but the difference was not statistically significant at the 5% level (P = 0.07).ConclusionsIndividualized follow-up was superior to conventional follow-up in 3 of the 4 QoL and patient satisfaction surveys in this preliminary study. Further prospective studies are needed in a larger population.Trial registration number is ISRCTN59149551.

Background We investigated the risk of chronic liver disease (CLD) due to alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) and the effects of their interaction in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial. Methods 95,126 post-menopausal women without documented CLD were stratified into 12 groups defined by combinations of BMI (normal, overweight, obese) and alcohol consumption (none

Purpose Ovarian cancer (OC) is the most lethal gynaecological cancer. Early detection is required to improve patient survival. Risk estimation models were constructed for Type I (Model I) and Type II (Model II) OC from analysis of Protein Z, Fibronectin, C-reactive protein and CA125 levels in prospectively collected samples from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Results Model I identifies cancers earlier than CA125 alone, with a potential lead time of 3-4 years. Model II detects a number of high grade serous cancers at an earlier stage (Stage I/II) than CA125 alone, with a potential lead time of 2-3 years and assigns high risk to patients that the ROCA Algorithm classified as normal. Materials and Methods This nested case control study included 418 individual serum samples serially collected from 49 OC cases and 31 controls up to six years pre-diagnosis. Discriminatory logit models were built combining the ELISA results for candidate proteins with CA125 levels. Conclusions These models have encouraging sensitivities for detecting pre-clinical ovarian cancer, demonstrating improved sensitivity compared to CA125 alone. In addition we demonstrate how the models improve on ROCA for some cases and outline their potential future use as clinical tools.

Background: In research studies, accurate information of cancer diagnosis is crucial. In women with breast cancer (BC), we compare cancer registration (CR) in England/Wales and self-reporting with independent confirmation. Methods: In the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, notification of BC diagnosed between randomisation and 31 December 2009 was obtained through (1) CR (17 October 2011) and (2) self-reporting using postal-questionnaire. Breast cancer was confirmed using a detailed questionnaire (BC questionnaire BCQ) completed by the treating clinician (gold standard). Apparent sensitivity and positive-predictive value of CR/self-reporting vs BCQ were calculated. Results: Of 1065 women with possible BC notification, diagnosis was confirmed in 932 (87.5%). A total of 3.1% (28 out of 918) of BC CR and 12.4% (128 out of 1032) of women with self-reported BC only had in-situ carcinoma on BCQ. Another 4.6% (43 out of 932) of BCQ-confirmed cancer did not have a BC registration, and 3.6% (34 out of 932) did not self-report BC. Apparent sensitivity of CR and self-reporting vs BCQ were 95.4 and 96.4%, respectively. Positive-predictive value of self-reporting (87.1%) was significantly lower than that of CR (96.8%). Women aged

Objective: To evaluate the malignant potential of ultrasound-detected ovarian inclusion cysts in the development of ovarian cancer (OC) in postmenopausal women. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Population: Postmenopausal women. Methods: In UKCTOCS, women in the ultrasound group have annual scans. Women with inclusion cysts (single/multiple anechoic £10-mm ovarian cysts) and normal ovaries (both uniform hypoechogenicity) on their first scan were identified and followed up through cancer registry/questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Relative risk (RR) of developing OC, invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (iEOC), breast cancer (BC) and endometrial cancer (EC) in women with inclusion cysts relative to those with normal ovaries. The incidence was compared with UK age-adjusted expected rates (Office for National Statistics, 2005). Results: Postmenopausal women (n = 48 230) attended the year 1(11 June 2001–6 December 2006) screen; 1234 (2.5%) had inclusion cysts alone and 22 914 had normal scans. By 1 November 2009 (median follow-up, 6.13 years; interquartile range,4.96–6.98 years), four, three (one Type II), seven and 22 women with inclusion cysts and 32, 29 (20 Type II), 90 and 397 women with normal ovaries were diagnosed with OC, iEOC, EC and BC,respectively. The RR values for the respective cancers (OC [RR,2.32; confidence interval [CI], 0.86–6.28], iEOC [RR, 1.92; CI,0.62–5.92], EC [RR, 1.44; CI, 0.68–3.05], BC [RR, 1.12; CI,0.73–1.73]) were not increased. There was no difference between the observed versus expected incidence rates for these cancers in women with inclusion cysts. Conclusions: Postmenopausal women with ultrasound-detected inclusion cysts do not seem to be at increased risk of ovarian or breast/endometrial (hormone-dependent) cancers.

Ovarian cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women, with more than 150,000 deceases worldwide each year. One of the main problems of ovarian cancer is that, usually, is detected at later stages, for which the survival rates are relatively low. Thus, the development of new approaches for longitudinal multi-marker analysis that result in earlier detection may significantly impact on mortality. An issue of specific interest is to determine whether the baseline level of a biomarker changes significantly at some time instant (change-point) prior to the clinical diagnosis of cancer. Here we apply a hierarchical Bayesian change-point model to jointly study the features of time series from multiple biomarkers, such as the serum biomarker Cancer Antigen 125, the Human Epididymis Protein 4, matrix metalloproteinase-7, Cytokeratin 19 fragment, glycodelin and mesothelin, using data from a nested case-control study of women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. In this way we assess whether some of these biomarkers can play a role in change-point detection and, therefore, aid in the diagnosis of the disease. The main conclusion of our study is that the combined analysis of a group of specific biomarkers may possibly improve the detection of changepoints in time series data (compared to the analysis of Cancer Antigen 125 alone, the most commonly used oncomarker in the screening of ovarian cancer) which, in turn, are relevant for the early diagnosis of ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of risk-adjustment on surgical complication rates (CRs) for benchmarking gynaecological oncology centres. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Ten UK accredited gynaecological oncology centres. POPULATION: Women undergoing major surgery on a gynaecological oncology operating list. METHODS: Patient co-morbidity, surgical procedures and intra-operative (IntraOp) complications were recorded contemporaneously by surgeons for 2948 major surgical procedures. Postoperative (PostOp) complications were collected from hospitals and patients. Risk-prediction models for IntraOp and PostOp complications were created using penalised (lasso) logistic regression using over 30 potential patient/surgical risk factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Observed and risk-adjusted IntraOp and PostOp CRs for individual hospitals were calculated. Benchmarking using colour-coded funnel plots and observed-to-expected ratios was undertaken. RESULTS: Overall, IntraOp CR was 4.7% (95% CI 4.0-5.6) and PostOp CR was 25.7% (95% CI 23.7-28.2). The observed CRs for all hospitals were under the upper 95% control limit for both IntraOp and PostOp funnel plots. Risk-adjustment and use of observed-to-expected ratio resulted in one hospital moving to the >95-98% CI (red) band for IntraOp CRs. Use of only hospital-reported data for PostOp CRs would have resulted in one hospital being unfairly allocated to the red band. There was little concordance between IntraOp and PostOp CRs. CONCLUSION: The funnel plots and overall IntraOp (≈5%) and PostOp (≈26%) CRs could be used for benchmarking gynaecological oncology centres. Hospital benchmarking using risk-adjusted CRs allows fairer institutional comparison. IntraOp and PostOp CRs are best assessed separately. As hospital under-reporting is common for postoperative complications, use of patient-reported outcomes is important. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Risk-adjusted benchmarking of surgical complications for ten UK gynaecological oncology centres allows fairer comparison.

Introduction Associations of endogenous sex hormone levels and all as well as estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers are well described. However, studies investigating their association with ER-negative tumours are limited and none use accurate assays such as mass spectrometry. Methods Within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), a nested case-control study was undertaken of postmenopausal-women who developed ER-negative (n = 92) or ER-positive (n = 205) breast cancer after sample donation and 297 (1:1) age-matched controls. Androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) were measured using mass spectrometry and estradiol by extraction radioimmunoassay (RIA). Bioavailable estradiol and testosterone were calculated using the total hormone level and the sex hormone-binding globulin concentration. Subjects were classified according to the quartile range among controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds-ratio (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI) of the associations between two factors and breast cancer risk. A separate analysis was done by stratifying the women based on whether they provided their samples less than or more than 2 years before diagnosis. Results Estradiol and free estradiol were significantly higher prior to diagnosis of ER-negative breast cancer compared with controls while androgens and SHBG did not show any difference. Estradiol, free estradiol, free testosterone and SHBG were significantly higher before ER-positive breast cancer diagnosis compared with controls. Women had a twofold increased ER-negative breast cancer risk if estradiol and free estradiol were in the top quartile but not androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) or SHBG. These associations remained significant only when samples closer (median 1.1 y before) to diagnosis were analyzed rather than farther from diagnosis (median 2.9 y before). Women had a 2.34 (95% CI: 1.21–4.61, p = 0.001), 2.21 (95% CI: 1.14–4.38, p = 0.001), 2 (95% CI: 1.05–3.89, p = 0.005) fold increased ER-positive breast cancer risk if estradiol, free estradiol and free testosterone respectively were in the top quartile. These associations remained significant regardless of whether the samples were collected less than or more than 2 years prior to diagnosis. Conclusion In postmenopausal women increased estrogens but not androgens are associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Previously reported associations of estradiol and free testosterone with ER-positive breast cancer are confirmed. The use of mass spectrometry and sensitive RIA add validity to these findings.

Background: Concurrent tumors can be synchronous, independently derived, non-metastatic tumors or metastatic tumors. The prognosis and clinical management of patients with these different concurrent tumor types are different. Methods: DNA from normal and tumor tissues of 62 patients with synchronous endometrial and ovarian, bilateral ovarian, or endometrial and bilateral ovarian tumors was analyzed for loss of heterozygosity and microsatellite instability using eight polymorphic microsatellite markers at loci frequently deleted in ovarian and/or endometrial cancers. A statistical algorithm was designed to assess the clonal relationship between the tumors. Results: The original histopathology reports classified 26 (42%) case patients with single primary tumors and related metastatic lesions and 21 (34%) with independent primary tumors; 15 (24%) were unclassified. Genetic data identified 35 (56%) case patients with single primary tumors and related metastatic lesions, 18 (29%) with independent primary tumors, and nine (15%) that could not be typed. Excluding case patients with histopathology reports for which a clonal relationship was uncertain or was not reported, there was 53% concordance between genetic and histopathology diagnoses. Increasing the stringency of the statistical analysis increased the number of uncertain diagnoses but did not affect the proportion of discordant genetic and histologic diagnoses. Conclusions: We have developed a rapid and robust combined genetic and statistical method to establish whether multiple tumors from the same patient represent distinct primary tumors or whether they are clonally related and therefore metastatic. For the majority of case patients, histopathology reports and genetic analyses were in agreement and diagnostic confidence was improved. Importantly, in approximately one-fourth of all case patients, genetic and histopathologic analyses suggested alternative diagnoses. The results suggest that genetic analysis has implications for clinical management and can be performed rapidly as a diagnostic test with paraffin-embedded tissues.

Studies, to date, have suggested that there are distinct molecular differences between microsatellite stable (RER(-)) and unstable (RER(+)) solid tumors, such as colorectal carcinoma. We investigated a range of molecular events including mutation frequency of K-ras, microsatellite instability within the coding region of TGF-beta RII, BAX, and IGF-IIR, loss of expression of p53, hMLH1, hMSH2, hMSH6, and PTEN, and methylation of hMLH1, hMSH2, and PTEN within a large population-based series of sporadic endometrial carcinomas to establish whether there are distinct differences between replication error repair (RER(+)) and RER(-) cases. RER(+) endometrial carcinomas tended to be diploid with normal p53 expression, compared with RER(-) cases. Mutations in TGF-beta RII, IGF-IIR, and BAX were rare, but there was a strong association between mutation and RER(+) status. Methylation and loss of hMLH1 expression were significantly more common in RER(+) cases, as was methylation of PTEN. K-ras mutations were equally frequent in RER(+) and RER(-) cases. Despite the absence of distinct clinicopathological differences between RER(+) and RER(-) cases in this series of sporadic endometrial carcinomas, our results confirm that there are molecular differences between RER(+) and RER(-) cases, but the molecular events occurring in RER(+) endometrial carcinomas differ from those seen in RER(+) colorectal carcinomas.

Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and allelic imbalance (AI) at loci reported to show allele loss and/or imbalance in preinvasive and invasive breast cancer were examined in 41 cases of apocrine metaplasia (APM) of the breast using a microdissection technique, polymorphic microsatellite markers, and the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Occasional examples of LOH and/or AI were identified in 2/28 (7.1%) informative cases at 1p (MYCL1), 2/14 (14.3%) at 11q (INT2), 1/15 (6.7%) at 13q (D13S267), 3/22 (13.6%) at 16q (D16S539), 2/23 (8.7%) at 17p (TP53), and 1/11 (9.1%) at 17p (D17S513) and 3/16 (18.8%) at 17q (D17S250). The finding of LOH/AI in cases of APM indicates that a subset of APM appears clonal, but the significance of allelic loss or imbalance in the pathogenesis of APM or its possible subsequent progression to carcinoma is not yet clear and requires further investigation. Clinical follow-up of these particular cases of APM showing LOH/AI would be of further value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background Area-level socioeconomic indicators have been shown to be associated with range of health outcomes. However, only few studies have been able to examine the role of area-level indicators alongside individual-level indicators in large national samples. The aim of this project is to assess the role of Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) as well as range of individual factors on all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in sample of women resident in …