Search

The basis of natural resource management is decision making under uncertainty while balancing competing objectives. Within fisheries management, a process described as management strategy evaluation (MSE) is becoming increasingly requested globally to develop and test management procedures. In a fisheries or other natural resource context, a management procedure is a rule that predetermines the management response given feedback from the resource and is simulation tested to be robust to multiple uncertainties. MSEs are distinguished from other risk or simulation analyses by the explicit testing of the feedback mechanism that applies decision rule-based management advice back to the simulated population or ecosystem. Stakeholder input is frequently cited as a best practice in the MSE process, since it fosters communication and facilitates buy-in to the process. Nevertheless, due to the substantial additional cost, time requirement, and necessary scientific personnel, full stakeholder MSEs remain relatively uncommon. With this communication, we provide guidance on what constitutes an MSE, when MSEs should be undertaken or where simpler approaches may suffice, and how to prioritize the degree of stakeholder participation.

Petrographic observations and in situ U–Pb ages of melilitites, foidites, basanites, phonolites, and trachytes from the southern part of the Central European Volcanic Province (CEVP) and related plutonic inclusions therein reveal two distinct age groups separated by a gap of ~ 20 Myr. A late Cretaceous to early Eocene group (~ 73–47 Ma; Taunus, Lower Main plain, Odenwald and Kraichgau area, Bonndorfer Graben and Freiburger Bucht area, Vosges and Pfälzerwald) is characterized by nephelinites and basanites mostly devoid of melilite and perovskite, and by rare haüynites, and trachytes. In contrast, a late Oligocene to late Miocene group (~ 27–9 Ma; Lorraine, southern Upper Rhine Graben, Urach, Hegau area) is dominated by melilitites, melilite-bearing nephelinites (both carrying perovskite), and phonolites. Both magmatic episodes are related to domal topographic uplift, erosion, and formation of major angular unconformities in the Upper Rhine Graben, suggesting an association with dynamic topography interrupted by phases of subsidence (or abatements of uplift). The investigated rocks in the southern CEVP (south of a line Eifel–Vogelsberg–Rhön–Heldburg), except for the Kaiserstuhl volcanic complex, mostly comprise small and isolated occurrences or monogenetic volcanic fields, whereas the northern CEVP is dominated by large volcanic complexes and dyke swarms, which are mostly SiO2-saturated to weakly SiO2-undersaturated. In the northern CEVP, evidence of spatially varying but recurrent volcanic activity exists since the Eocene, lacking the distinct 20 Myr gap as documented from the southern CEVP. While the temporal and spatial distribution of volcanism are a result of the Cretaceous to Miocene tectonic evolution in Central Europe, further studies are needed to explain the petrographic differences between the two age groups in the south.

The final phase of the reionization process can be probed by rest-frame UV absorption spectra of quasars at z>6, shedding light on the properties of the diffuse intergalactic medium within the first Gyr of the Universe. The ESO Large Programme "XQR-30: the ultimate XSHOOTER legacy survey of quasars at z~5.8-6.6" dedicated ~250 hours of observations at the VLT to create a homogeneous and high-quality sample of spectra of 30 luminous quasars at z~6, covering the rest wavelength range from the Lyman limit to beyond the MgII emission. Twelve quasar spectra of similar quality from the XSHOOTER archive were added to form the enlarged XQR-30 sample, corresponding to a total of ~350 hours of on-source exposure time. The median effective resolving power of the 42 spectra is R~11400 and 9800 in the VIS and NIR arm, respectively. The signal-to-noise ratio per 10 km/s pixel ranges from ~11 to 114 at $\lambda \simeq 1285$ \AA rest frame, with a median value of ~29. We describe the observations, data reduction and analysis of the spectra, together with some first results based on the E-XQR-30 sample. New photometry in the H and K bands are provided for the XQR-30 quasars, together with composite spectra whose characteristics reflect the large absolute magnitudes of the sample. The composite and the reduced spectra are released to the community through a public repository, and will enable a range of studies addressing outstanding questions regarding the first Gyr of the Universe., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures. Final version accepted by MNRAS

Multiband photometric observations and their evaluation to instrumental magnitudes were performed using standard Johnson-Cousins filters (B, V, Rc) as well r and g Sloan filters, and not standard ones (R, G, B, and Clear filters). These were recorded from 9 observatories and from the MicroObservatory Robotic Telescope Network. Additionally, low-resolution spectra of the Type II supernova SN 2023ixf were performed during the rise to the maximum brightness and the first 50 days after the maximum. The results describe the rapid ascent towards the maximum (2.5 magnitudes about in five days in the B filter) and the slow decrease after the maximum (0.0425 +/- 0.02 magnitudes/day in the B filter). The results highlight the strong variation of the B-V colour indices during the first 50 days (from -0.20 +/- 0.02 to +0.85 +/- 0.02) and V-R (from 0 +/- 0.01 to +0.50 +/- 0.01) after the explosion, presumably corresponding to the cooling of the stellar photosphere. Additionally, the presence of sharp H-alpha and H-beta lines with a strong P Cygni profile, indicate the existence of a gaseous envelope expanding away from the star. At 50 days after the explosion the magnitude decrease from the maximum was observed to continue where it faded by 2.5 magnitudes (B filter), thus we propose SN 2023ixf is a Type II, subtype L, supernova (SNe).

This article examines the intersection of drug-use, aesthetics, and Blackness at work in James Baldwin’s short story “Sonny’s Blues” (1957). While much of the scholarship on Baldwin’s story has dwelt on the significance of music, far less attention has been paid to the equally prominent and related theme of drug addiction and intoxication. Through an historical contextualization and analysis of the story, I provide an exegesis of Baldwin’s unique theorization of drug addiction, or what I am calling intoxicating Blackness, particularly as it relates to black aesthetics. By surveying formulations of drug addiction in European thought and the counter-discourse of black radical thought, I argue that Baldwin’s short story figures an innovative notion of being on drugs. Unlike subsequent, often disparaging depictions of addiction in the political discourse of the Black Power Movement and other late twentieth-century black popular culture, ‘Sonny’s Blues’ represents addiction as a cite of possibility. Baldwin suggests that an openness to intoxication and addiction, although perilous for the addict, might function as an aesthetic of black fugitivity and that any sort of black life might be thought of as a dangerous, fugitive narcotic. To elaborate on this theory of intoxicating Blackness, I consider it in relation to Western philosophical, legal, and psychoanalytic paradigms of addiction, as well as conceptualizations of Blackness and fugitivity in the work of thinkers such as Sylvia Wynter, Fred Moten, and Frantz Fanon.

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) are a large, highly migratory fish distributed throughout the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas currently managed as two discrete stocks: western and eastern. Both stocks forage in the North Atlantic, and a high degree of intermixing occurs, which combined with limited single-stock survey data makes it difficult to assess the abundance and status of individual populations. In this study, we used movement patterns from a multidecadal tagging dataset to create monthly distribution maps for these two major stocks. We then used these maps to separate the overall catch records into stock-specific catch (catch per unit effort, CPUE) time series. We identified an increase in the past two decades in the proportion of catch estimated to come from the eastern stock, attributable to a decrease in CPUE in regions dominated by the western stock, relative to other regions. The stock-specific catch series can be used to improve the accuracy of stock assessments and inform spatial management.

Impacts of Karenia brevis red tide blooms have been an increasing cause of concern for fisheries management in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The 2019 Gulf red grouper (Epinephelus morio) stock assessment was confronted with the challenges of quantifying and parameterizing red tides during both historical and projection time periods. Red tide mortality was estimated for each age class in the model solely in 2005 and 2014 during severe events. Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the 2018 red tide and its substantial implications on the status of the population, several projection scenarios were evaluated. Under the assumption of no 2018 red tide mortality, near-term catches were projected to nearly double, a predicted outcome that appeared to be in contrast with recent record low catches and fishing industry perceptions of major stock depletion. In the event that the 2018 red tide caused mortality, but was not accounted for in projections, the recommended catch levels would lead to high probabilities of overfishing and potentially stock collapse. Collectively, these results highlight how consideration of uncertainty in projections can help avoid unintended consequences.

This paper presents 2109 times of minima for 965 objects acquired by 59 members and cooperating observers of the Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society (B.R.N.O. Observing project).These observations were submitted to the website of the Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society between November 2016 and March 2018.

Numerous empirical studies have examined the role of third-party peacekeeping in reducing violence around the world. Their results reveal an extraordinary relationship between peacekeepers and peace, notwithstanding a number of well-known problems. This review article has three goals. The first is to summarize the results of past empirical research to move the debate beyond the question ofwhetherpeacekeeping works to the more pressing questions of how, when and why it works. The second is to reveal the limitations of the current quantitative research in order to identify areas in which scholars can make big, new contributions to the field. The final goal is to propose a new research agenda that is heavily evaluative – one that informs policy makers about the specific practices, mission compositions, and mandates that work, and identifies the local, regional, and international conditions that amplify or diminish peacekeeping's effectiveness. This type of research could help reduce the costs of peacekeeping operations, eliminate some of the negative consequences of interventions and save even more lives.

The crush-leach technique is a frequently used method to determine the bulk composition of fluid inclusions trapped in a range of geological samples. We present a modified crush-leach technique combining ion chromatography (IC) and total reflection X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (TXRF) which allows to determine a range of major, minor and trace elements out of one leachate. To date, trace element detection by means of TXRF is barely used in geosciences, although it combines the advantages of low to very low detection limits (µg/L to ng/L range), small sample amount needed (µL-range) and a fast and inexpensive analytical procedure. Previously described problems of adsorption of polyvalent cations at sample surfaces have been overcome by using acidified water as a leachate. Instead, it has been demonstrated that, for example, the syringe filter type used for IC measurements influences contamination and/or adsorption for a number of elements. The proposed method combination was evaluated for accuracy, reproducibility and system blanks and subsequently applied to quartz samples from hydrothermal vein deposits of the Schwarzwald ore district, SW Germany.

This review documents the current state of knowledge and gaps therein, as determined through a survey of published research on relevant topics, regarding the potential impacts of offshore oil production platforms (OPP) on the biology of highly migratory fish species (HMS) which include tunas, swordfish, billfishes, and oceanic sharks. There is a limited amount of published research directly related to HMS and OPPs. This may be due to the relatively recent offshore expansion of the industry and of studies. Most studies have focused on structure-associated species such as rockfishes and snappers. Within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, the most probable areas of interaction between HMS and OPPs occur in the Gulf of Mexico. This report focuses primarily upon this region, while noting that HMS roam the majority of the world’s oceans and may interact with petroleum infrastructure in many other locations. With such large stock boundaries it is unlikely that HMS interactions with OPPs will have a significant impact at the stock level, however, there could be impacts at local or regional levels.

Native arsenic is an occasional ore mineral in some hydrothermal base metal deposits. Its rarity (compared to pyrite, arsenopyrite, galena, sphalerite, or chalcopyrite, for example) is surprising, as arsenic is a common constituent of upper crustal fluids. Hence, the conditions of formation must be quite special to precipitate native arsenic. An ideal location to investigate the formation of native As and to explore the parameters constraining its crystallization is the Michael vein near Lahr, Schwarzwald, southwest (SW) Germany. Here, galena, sphalerite, and native arsenic are the most abundant ore minerals. The two important ore stages comprise (1) galena-barite and (2) sphalerite-native arsenic-quartz, the latter with a general mineral succession of pyrite → sphalerite ± jordanite-gratonite solid solution → galena → native As. The native arsenic-bearing mineralization formed by cooling of an at least 130 °C hot saline fluid accompanied by a reduction due to the admixing of a sulfide-bearing fluid.Thermodynamic calculations reveal that for the formation of native arsenic, reduced conditions in combination with very low concentrations of the transition metals Fe, Co, and Ni, as well as low sulfide concentrations, are essential. “Typical” hydrothermal fluids do not fulfill these criteria, as they typically can contain significant amounts of Fe and sulfide. This results in the formation of arsenides, sulfarsenides, or As-bearing sulfides instead of native arsenic. Very minor amounts of pyrite, sulfarsenides, and arsenides record the very low concentrations of Fe, Co, and Ni present in the ore-forming fluid. High concentrations of aqueous Zn and Pb lead to early saturation of sphalerite and galena that promoted native arsenic precipitation by decreasing the availability of sulfide and hence suppressing realgar formation.Interestingly, native arsenic in the Michael vein acted as a trap for uranium during supergene weathering processes. Infiltrating oxidizing, U+VI-bearing fluids from the host lithologies reacted under ambient conditions with galena and native arsenic, forming a variety of U+VI (±Pb)-bearing arsenates such as hügelite, hallimondite, zeunerite, heinrichite, or novacekite together with U-free minerals like mimetite or anglesite. Some parts of the vein were enriched to U concentrations of up to 1 wt% by this supergene process. Reduced (hypogene) uranium phases like uraninite were never observed.

Studies of fluid inclusions in carbonatitic rocks are essential for understanding physicochemical processes involved in carbonatite-related hydrothermal ore mineralization and fenitization. However, the composition of many carbonatite-derived fluids is challenging to quantify, which hampers their detailed interpretation. Here, we present a systematic study of microthermometry of fluid inclusions found in carbonatites from the Kaiserstuhl (SW Germany), and a simple numerical model to estimate the compositions of such fluids, which are typical of numerous carbonatites worldwide. Four types of fluid inclusions have been identified in the Kaiserstuhl carbonatites: (I) vapor-poor H2O-NaCl fluids with

Metallographic and electron microscopic methods were used to understand the microstructural changes occurring during the additive manufacturing of components made of X40CrMoV5-1. In this hardening steel, tempering effects, which can locally be very different, occur as early as during additive manufacturing. For the determination of the micro- and macroscopic microstructural inhomogeneities, this work focused on the metallographic characterization based on macro- and micrographs as well as on hardness measurements. In addition, local inhomogeneities in the chemical composition and the microstructure were characterized by ESMA and EBSD. The examinations were accompanied by the characterization of the powder.

The ExoClock project is an inclusive, integrated, and interactive platform that was developed to monitor the ephemerides of the Ariel targets to increase the mission efficiency. The project makes the best use of all available resources, i.e., observations from ground telescopes, mid-time values from the literature and finally, observations from space instruments. Currently, the ExoClock network includes 280 participants with telescopes capable of observing 85\% of the currently known Ariel candidate targets. This work includes the results of $\sim$1600 observations obtained up to the 31st of December 2020 from the ExoClock network. These data in combination with $\sim$2350 mid-time values collected from the literature are used to update the ephemerides of 180 planets. The analysis shows that 40\% of the updated ephemerides will have an impact on future scheduling as either they have a significantly improved precision, or they have revealed biases in the old ephemerides. With the new observations, the observing coverage and rate for half of the planets in the sample has been doubled or more. Finally, from a population perspective, we identify that the differences in the 2028 predictions between the old and the new ephemerides have an STD that is double what is expected from gaussian uncertainties. These findings have implications for planning future observations, where we will need to account for drifts potentially greater than the prediction uncertainties. The updated ephemerides are open and accessible to the wider exoplanet community both from our Open Science Framework (OSF) repository and our website., Comment: 9 pages (47 with appendices and references), 8 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to ApJS. Revised based on the reviewer's comments

The ExoClock project has been created to increase the efficiency of the Ariel mission. It will achieve this by continuously monitoring and updating the ephemerides of Ariel candidates, in order to produce a consistent catalog of reliable and precise ephemerides. This work presents a homogenous catalog of updated ephemerides for 450 planets, generated by the integration of ∼18,000 data points from multiple sources. These sources include observations from ground-based telescopes (the ExoClock network and the Exoplanet Transit Database), midtime values from the literature, and light curves from space telescopes (Kepler, K2, and TESS). With all the above, we manage to collect observations for half of the postdiscovery years (median), with data that have a median uncertainty less than 1 minute. In comparison with the literature, the ephemerides generated by the project are more precise and less biased. More than 40% of the initial literature ephemerides had to be updated to reach the goals of the project, as they were either of low precision or drifting. Moreover, the integrated approach of the project enables both the monitoring of the majority of the Ariel candidates (95%), and also the identification of missing data. These results highlight the need for continuous monitoring to increase the observing coverage of the candidate planets. Finally, the extended observing coverage of planets allows us to detect trends (transit-timing variations) for a sample of 19 planets. All the products, data, and codes used in this work are open and accessible to the wider scientific community., La lista completa de autores que integran el documento puede consultarse en el archivo., Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas

Multiple Endocine Neoplasia Type 1 (MEN1) is associated with duodenopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (dpNETs) and metastatic dpNET is the primary cause of disease-related mortality for this condition. Currently, there is a paucity of prognostic factors that can reliably identify patients with MEN1-related dpNETS who are at high risk of distant metastasis. Previously, we uncovered a blood-based polyamine metabolite signature that was associated with MEN1-dpNET disease progression. In the current study, we aimed to build upon our prior findings, by exploring the contributions of proteomics for identifying circulating protein markers associated with tumor progression. We performed in-depth proteomic analysis of serially collected plasmas from a genetically engineered mouse model of Men1-pNET, Men1fl/flPdx1-CreTg, and Men1fl/fl control mice to assess dynamic changes in the plasma proteome that associated with disease progression. Findings were compared to plasma proteomic profiles from a cohort of 56 patients with MEN1 (14 with distant metastasis dpNETs (cases) and 42 with either indolent dpNETs or no dpNETs (controls)). Analyses revealed 196 proteins related to oncogenic N-MYC, YAP1, POU5F1, and SMAD that were positively associated with pNET disease progression in Men1fl/flPdx1-CreTg mice. Similarly, 187 proteins were elevated in MEN1 patients with distant metastasis compared controls. Proteins with increased levels in metastatic cases included AMY2B, CELA3B, RNASE1, IGFBP2, CHI3L1, LYZ, TIMP1, LRG1, and COL18A1 previously associated with pancreatic cancer and other neuronal proteins. Cross-species intersection revealed 19 proteins including NDC80, DEF8, SPAG17, ATM, IMMT, DNAH6, DSP, CIT, HRG, CD79A, BDP1, SERPINA11, TARBP1, and SERPIND1 that were positively associated with disease progression in Men1fl/flPdx1-CreTg mice and human subjects. Our integrated analyses identified novel circulating protein features associated with disease progression in MEN1-related dpNET. Citation Format: Johannes F. Fahrmann, Amanda R. Wasylishen, Carolina R.C. Pieterman, Ehsan Irajizad, Jody Vykoukal, Ranran Wu, Jennifer D. Dennison, Christine B. Peterson, Guillermina Lozano, Hua Zhao, Kim-Ahn Do, Daniel M. Halperin, Sunita K. Agarwal, Jenny E. Blau, Jaydira D. Rivero, Naris Nilubol, Mary F. Walter, James M. Welch, Lee S. Weinstein, Menno R. Vriens, Rachel S. van Leeuwaarde, Mark J.C. van Treijen, Gerlof D. Valk, Nancy D. Perrier, Sam M Hanash, Hiroyuki Katayama. Blood-based proteomic signatures associated with MEN1-related duodenopancreatic neuroendocrine tumor progression. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Precision Prevention, Early Detection, and Interception of Cancer; 2022 Nov 17-19; Austin, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Can Prev Res 2023;16(1 Suppl): Abstract nr P066.

Globally, tunas are among the most valuable fish stocks, but are also inherently difficult to monitor and assess. Samples of larvae of Western Atlantic bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus (Linnaeus, 1758) from standardized annual surveys in the northern Gulf of Mexico provide a potential source of “offspring” for close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) estimates of abundance. However, the spatial patchiness and highly skewed numbers of larvae per tow suggest sampled larvae may come from a small number of parents, compromising the precision of CKMR. We used high throughput genomic profiling to study sibship within and among larval tows from the 2016 standardized Gulf-wide survey compared to targeted sampling carried out in 2017. Full- and half-siblings were found within both years, with 12% of 156 samples in 2016 and 56% of 317 samples in 2017 having at least one sibling. There were also two pairs of cross cohort half-siblings. Targeted sampling increased the number of larvae collected per sampling event but resulted in a higher proportion of siblings. The combined effective sample size across both years was about 75% of the nominal size, indicating that Gulf of Mexico larval collections could be a suitable source of juveniles for CKMR in Western Atlantic bluefin tuna.

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation-based approach to examine the efficacy of management options in achieving fishery-, ecosystem-, and socioeconomic-related objectives while integrating over system uncertainties. As a form of structured decision analysis, MSE is amenable to stakeholder involvement, which can reduce implementation barriers associated with nontransparent decision-making procedures. Based on analysis of three MSE processes (Atlantic tunas (Thunnus spp.), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), and eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica)), we provide suggestions for improving stakeholder engagement in MSE. By assembling a workgroup and modeling team with diverse backgrounds, including professional facilitators, communication liaisons, and social scientists, dialogue can be improved and an atmosphere of mutual learning fostered. Communication further benefits from clearly defining roles, responsibilities, and terms of engagement for all involved; explicitly and transparently identifying goals and objectives of the MSE before modeling has begun; and, when appropriate, revisiting goals and objectives throughout the MSE process. Although MSEs are not without limitations, the participatory modeling framework, wherein stakeholders are actively engaged at each stage of MSE development, provides a useful mechanism to support fisheries management.

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is an increasingly popular tool for developing, testing, and implementing fisheries management regimes, oftentimes utilizing participatory modeling. This special issue, “Under pressure: addressing fisheries challenges with Management Strategy Evaluation”, includes eleven articles highlighting cutting edge MSE approaches and perspectives on improving stakeholder engagement. The special issue is the culmination of a two-session MSE symposium held during the 147th American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting in Tampa, Florida. We summarize the themes from the symposium and special issue articles. Contributions demonstrated that important strides have been made in quantifying and exploring risk (by including more sophisticated multispecies and socioeconomic components), developing and testing data-limited harvest control rules, acknowledging and diagnosing limitations of MSE (e.g., identifying exceptional circumstances), and dealing with issues of stakeholder engagement and dimensionality (e.g., determining appropriate representation, communication techniques, and participation levels). Although MSE is a not a panacea for marine policy and resource utilization issues, it is a useful tool for implementing co-management regimes that should become increasingly robust as the multidisciplinary nature of MSE processes continues to expand.

Specifying annual catch limits for artisanal fisheries, low economic value stocks, or bycatch species is problematic due to data limitations. Many empirical management procedures (MPs) have been developed that provide catch advice based on achieving a stable catch or a historical target (i.e., instead of maximum sustainable yield). However, a thorough comparison of derived yield streams between empirical MPs and stock assessment models has not been explored. We first evaluate trade-offs in conservation and yield metrics for data-limited approaches through management strategy evaluation (MSE) of seven data-rich reef fish species in the Gulf of Mexico. We then apply data-limited approaches for each species and compare how catch advice differs from current age-based assessment models. MSEs identified empirical MPs (e.g., using relative abundance) as a compromise between data requirements and the ability to consistently achieve management objectives (e.g., prevent overfishing). Catch advice differed greatly among data-limited approaches and current assessments, likely due to data inputs and assumptions. Adaptive MPs become clearly viable options that can achieve management objectives while incorporating auxiliary data beyond catch-only approaches.

Effective sustainable management of marine fisheries requires that assessed management units (that is, fish stocks) correspond to biological populations. This issue has long been discussed in the context of Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus) management, which currently considers two unmixed stocks but does not take into account how individuals born in each of the two main spawning grounds (Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean Sea) mix in feeding aggregations throughout the Atlantic Ocean. Using thousands of genome-wide molecular markers obtained from larvae and young of the year collected at the species’ main spawning grounds, we provide what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first direct genetic evidence for “natal homing” in ABFT. This has facilitated the development of an accurate, cost-effective, and non-invasive tool for tracing the genetic origin of ABFT that allows for the assignment of catches to their population of origin, which is crucial for ensuring that ABFT management is based on biologically meaningful stock units rather than simply on catch location., Sí

Starburst galaxies at z ∼ 2 – 4 are among the most intensely star-forming galaxies in the universe. The way they accrete their gas to form stars at such high rates is still a controversial issue. ALMA has detected the CH+ (J = 1-0) line in emission and/or absorption in all the gravitationally lensed starburst galaxies targeted so far at z ∼ 3. Its unique spectroscopic and chemical properties enable CH+ to highlight the sites of most intense dissipation of mechanical energy. The absorption lines reveal highly turbulent, massive reservoirs of low-density molecular gas. The broad emission lines, arising in myriad UV-irradiated molecular shocks, reveal powerful galactic winds. The CH+ lines therefore probe the fate of prodigious energy releases, due to infall and/or outflows, and primarily stored in turbulence before being radiated by cool molecular gas. The turbulent reservoirs act as mass and energy buffers over the duration of the starburst phase.

Many stock assessments heavily rely on indices of relative abundance derived from fisheries-dependent catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate different CPUE standardization methods under varying scenarios of data generating processes. Here, we evaluated nine CPUE standardization methods offering contrasting treatments of spatio-temporal variation, ranging from the basic generalized linear model (GLM) method not integrating a year-area interaction term to a sophisticated method using the spatio-temporal modeling platform VAST. We compared the performance of these methods against simulated data constructed to mimic the processes generating fisheries-dependent information for Atlantic blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), a common bycatch population in pelagic longline fisheries. Data were generated using a longline data simulator for different population trajectories (increasing, decreasing, and static). These data were further subsampled to mimic an observer program where trips rather than sets form the sampling frame, with or without a bias towards trips with low catch rates, which might occur if the presence of an observer alters fishing behavior to avoid bycatch. The spatio-temporal modeling platform VAST achieved the best performance in simulation, namely generally had one of the lowest biases, one of the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs), and 50% confidence interval coverage closest to 50%. Generalized additive models accounting for spatial autocorrelation at a broad spatial scale (one of the lowest MAEs and one of the lowest biases) and, to a lesser extent, non-spatial delta-lognormal GLMs including a year-area interaction as a random effect (one of the lowest MAEs and one of the best confidence interval coverages) also performed adequately. The VAST method provided the most comprehensive and consistent treatment of spatio-temporal variation, in contrast with methods that simply weight predictions by large spatial areas, where it is critical, but difficult, to get the a priori spatial stratification correct before weighting. Next, we applied the CPUE standardization methods to real data collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service Pelagic Observer Program. The indices of relative abundance predicted from real observer data were relatively similar across CPUE standardization methods for the period 1998–2017 and suggested that the blue marlin population of the Atlantic declined over the period 1998–2004 and was relatively stable afterwards. As spatio-temporal variation related to environmental changes or depletion becomes increasingly necessary to consider, greater use of spatio-temporal models for standardizing fisheries-dependent CPUE data will likely be warranted.

Age–length key (ALK) methods generally perform well when length samples and age samples are representative of the underlying population. It is unclear how well these methods perform when lengths are representative but age samples are sparse (i.e. age samples are small or missing in many years, and some length groups do not have any age observations). With western Atlantic bluefin tuna, the available age data are sparse and have been, for the most part, collected opportunistically. We evaluated two methods capable of accommodating sparse age data: a novel hybrid ALK (combining forward ALKs and cohort slicing) and the combined forward-inverse ALK. Our goal was to determine if the methods performed better than cohort slicing, which has traditionally been used to obtain catch-at-age for Atlantic bluefin tuna, given the data limitations outlined above. Simulation results indicated that the combined forward-inverse ALK performed much better than the other methods. When applied to western Atlantic bluefin tuna data, the combined forward-inverse ALK approach was able to track cohorts and identified an inconsistency in the ageing of some samples.

The intensity mapping of the [CII] 158um line redshifted to the sub-mm window is a promising probe of the z>4 star formation and its spatial distribution into the large-scale structure. To prepare the first-generation experiments (e.g., CONCERTO), we need realistic simulations of the sub-mm extragalactic sky in spectroscopy. We present a new version of the SIDES simulation including the main sub-mm lines around 1mm (CO, [CII], [CI]). This approach successfully reproduces the observed line luminosity functions. We then use our simulation to generate CONCERTO-like cubes (125-305GHz) and forecast the power spectra of the fluctuations caused by the various astrophysical components at those frequencies. Depending on our assumptions on the relation between star formation rate and [CII] luminosity, and the star formation history, our predictions of the z~6 [CII] power spectrum vary by two orders of magnitude. This highlights how uncertain the predictions are and how important future measurements will be to improve our understanding of this early epoch. SIDES can reproduce the CO shot noise recently measured at ~100 GHz by the mmIME experiment. Finally, we compare the contribution of the different astrophysical components at various redshift to the power spectra. The continuum is by far the brightest, by a factor of 3 to 100 depending on the frequency. At 300GHz, the CO foreground power spectrum is higher than the [CII] one for our base scenario. At lower frequency, the contrast between [CII] and extragalactic foregrounds is even worse. Masking the known galaxies from deep surveys should allow to reduce the foregrounds to 20% of the [CII] power spectrum up to z~6.5. However, this masking method will not be sufficient at higher redshifts. The code and the products of our simulation are released publicly and can be used for both intensity mapping experiments and sub-mm continuum and line surveys., 28 pages, 19 figures, 2 tables, accepted by A&A, the code and the products are available at https://cesamsi.lam.fr/instance/sides/home

Dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs) at redshift z$\geq$1 are among the most vigorously star-forming galaxies in the Universe. However, their dense ($\geq$10$^5$ cm$^{-3}$ ) gas phase - typically traced by HCN(1-0) - remains almost entirely unexplored: only two DSFGs have been detected in HCN(1-0) to date. We present results of a JVLA survey of the J=1-0 transition of HCN, HCO+, and HNC(1-0) in six strongly lensed DSFGs at z = 2.5 - 3.3, effectively doubling the number of DSFGs with deep observations of these lines. We detect HCN(1-0) emission in one source (J1202+5354, 4.4$\sigma$), with a tentative HCO+ (1-0) detection in another (J1609+6045, 3.3$\sigma$). Spectral stacking yields strict upper limits on the HCN/FIR ($\leq$3.6$\times$10$^{-4}$) and HCN/CO(1-0) ratios ($\leq$0.045). The inferred HCN/FIR ratios (a proxy for the star-formation efficiency) are consistent with those in z$\sim$0 FIR-luminous starbursts. However, the HCN/CO ratios - a proxy for the dense-gas fraction - are a factor of a few lower than suggested by the two previous DSFG detections. Our results imply that most DSFGs have low dense-gas fractions. A comparison with Krumholz & Thompson (2007) models of star-forming galaxies indicates that the bulk of gas in DSFGs is at lower densities ($\approx$10$^2$ cm$^{-3}$ ), similar to "normal" star-forming galaxies, rather than ultraluminous starbursts., Comment: Submitted to A&A 28th April 2022, accepted 19th July 2022

Prognosis after chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) shows marked differences among patients according to TNM subgroups, however individualized risk assessment tools to better stratify patients for treatment (de-) escalation or intensified follow-up are lacking in ASCC.Patients' data from eight sites of the German Cancer Consortium - Radiation Oncology Group (DKTK-ROG), comprising a total of 605 patients with ASCC, treated with standard definitive CRT with 5-FU/Mitomycin C or Capecitabine/Mitomycin C between 2004-2018, were used to evaluate prognostic factors based on Cox regression models for disease-free survival (DFS). Evaluated variables included age, gender, Karnofsky performance score (KPS), HIV-status, T-category, lymph node status and laboratory parameters. Multivariate cox models were separately constructed for the whole cohort and the subset of patients with early-stage (cT1-2 N0M0) tumors.After a median follow-up of 46 months, 3-year DFS for patients with early-stage ASCC was 84.9%, and 67.1% for patients with locally-advanced disease (HR 2.4, p 0.001). T-category (HR vs. T1: T2 2.02; T3 2.11; T4 3.03), N-category (HR versus N0: 1.8 for N1-3), age (HR 1.02 per year), and KPS (HR 0.8 per step) were significant predictors for DFS in multivariate analysis in the entire cohort. The model performed with a C-index of 0.68. In cT1-2N0 patients, T-category (HR 2.14), HIV status (HR 2.57), age (1.026 per year), KPS (HR 0.7 per step) and elevated platelets (HR 1.3 per 100/nl) were associated with worse DFS (C-index of 0.7).Classical clinicopathologic parameters like T-category, N-category, age and KPS remain to be significant prognostic factors for DFS in patients treated with contemporary CRT for ASCC. HIV and platelets were significantly associated with worse DFS in patients with early stage ASCC.

The effect of long-term versus short-term water content on soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralizability was evaluated in a six-week incubation trial. Soils were sampled from field sites in upstate New York used for rain-fed bioenergy crop production: nitrogen (N)- fertilized reed canarygrass, switchgrass, switchgrass + N, as well as a broadleaf-grass fallow. Within each cropping system, natural moisture gradients due to topography and subsoil structure allowed us to sample across regions with high (0.5 g g−1), mid (0.4 g g−1) and low (0.3 g g−1) water content. Moisture of the laboratory incubations was adjusted mimicking the three average field moisture levels in a full factorial design. Increasing laboratory moisture in the incubations increased cumulative carbon mineralization per unit soil (C mineralization) and cumulative C mineralization per unit SOC (C mineralizability) (main effect p 0.05) and root biomass marginally influenced (p = 0.05) C mineralizability after correcting for soil texture variations. Additionally, after correcting for soil texture variations and biomass inputs, C mineralizability significantly decreased with higher field moisture (p = 0.02), indicating possible stabilization mechanisms through mineral interactions of SOC under high water content. Bulk contents of pedogenic iron and aluminum determined by oxalate extraction did not clearly explain differences in mineralizability. However, exchangeable calcium and magnesium contents were significantly (p

Six mineralogically exemplary barren and mineralized hydrothermal veins (with Pb and Zn ores) of Jurassic-Cretaceous and Cenozoic age in the Schwarzwald mining district, SW Germany were chosen to shed light on the origin of their mineralogical diversity. The selection of the veins was guided by the fact that they represent the largest number of veins in the region, are very well known mineralogically and geochemically, and they provide nice examples of barren and mineralized veins of similar age. Fluid inclusion data from the individual veins overlap implying their diverse mineralogy is not caused by different fluid compositions participating during fluid mixing. LA-ICPMS data of single fluid inclusions indicate no systematic variations in major elements, but significant changes in fluid mixing ratios which caused variable trace element concentrations of different fluid inclusion assemblages in one sample. We suggest that different ore-gangue-assemblages can be produced by mixing of identical fluid endmembers, but variable mixing ratios. LA-ICPMS analyses of single fluid inclusions in barren and mineralized veins record similar base metal and sulfur concentrations. Hence, sulfide mineralization in the veins appears not to be controlled by metal solubility. Thermodynamic modeling based on the fluid data indicates that the presence of a reducing phase during fluid mixing is required for sulfide mineralization to precipitate. LA-ICPMS trace element analyses of feldspars, biotites, chlorites and clay minerals in granites and paragneisses which are the source of the metal content in the ore-forming fluids demonstrate that the dominant provenance for Pb, Zn, As, Sb, Ba, Tl, Mo, Fe and Mn are probably paragneisses, while Co, Cu and Ni are probably sourced from S-type granite. A rough quantification indicates that

Why do multiple rebel groups form in some civil wars but not others? Since 1946, only half of all civil wars were fought by a single rebel group; the rest were fought by multiple groups. Th...

A combination of textural observations from 38 Permian Sb-Pb-Ag±Au-bearing quartz veins in the Schwarzwald (SW Germany) with isotopic, fluid inclusion, and geochemical data allows to refine genetic models for this common type of mineralization, to understand the origin of mineralogical diversity and the correlation with large scale tectonic events. Textures record four main mineralization stages: (I) Fe-As(-Sb±Au), (II) Pb-Zn-Cu, (III) Pb-Sb, and (IV) Ag-Sb. Stage I sulfides, dominated by pyrite and arsenopyrite, formed due to cooling of low-salinity metamorphic fluids during the Permian with maximum homogenization temperatures of 400 °C. Invisible gold in arsenopyrite, pyrite, marcasite, and stibnite was remobilized and locally precipitated as electrum at the end of stage I. Minerals of stages II and III comprise a rich diversity of Sb-bearing sulfosalts including, e.g., bournonite, zinkenite, and jamesonite. This assemblage formed during Jurassic times due to mixing of high-salinity, mid- and upper-crustal fluids (up to 27 wt% NaCl+CaCl2) with homogenization temperatures between 50 and 250 °C. Stage III is marked by a rich variety of Pb-Sb sulfosalts. Its local abundance is directly related to the presence of stage I mineralization and its extent of remobilization during a significant influx of Pb in the Jurassic-Cretaceous. The formation of the Upper Rhine Graben during the Tertiary reactivated especially NE-SW-oriented veins. Percolating Ag-rich fluids reacted with earlier stage III Pb-Sb sulfosalts forming Ag-rich minerals (stage IV) such as miargyrite, pyrargyrite, and stephanite. The transition from metamorphic fluids to basinal, saline (e.g., Pb-bearing) brines over hundreds of millions of years as is shown in this study and present in other Variscan occurrences indicates a possibly typical poly-stage characteristic of Sb deposits worldwide, which has, however, not been investigated in detail so far.

Understanding the physical basics of tectonic events, related fluid flow and ore deposition represents one of the great challenges in modern geosciences. In this contribution, Sm-Nd ages of hydrothermal fluorites and U-Pb ages of carbonates and iron oxides from unconformity-related vein type deposits in the Schwarzwald next to the Upper Rhinegraben rift in SW Germany are used to distinguish different pulses of hydrothermal fluid activity and to understand their relation to large-scale tectonics and magmatism. While the fluorites are of Early Jurassic to Oligocene age, carbonate (calcite, dolomite, siderite) and hematite dated by U-Pb small-scale isochrons records formation from Permian to Quaternary with a clear culmination in the Neogene. These new age-data in combination with microthermometry data of primary fluid inclusions from growth zones in the fluorites and carbonates are used to constrain the timing of fluid signatures. This contribution shows that the ages are correlated with changes in fluid properties and/or tectonic events in the evolving continental crust. Comparison with published thermochronological data, apparent ages of URG-related volcanic rocks and the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Upper Rhinegraben rift show clear correlations between the intensity of hydrothermal mineralization (and, hence, the intensity of fracture-bound fluid flow) with the U-Pb carbonate ages. This method accordingly provides an excellent tool to date rift-related processes like fluid flow, ore deposition and tectonic activation or reactivation of fractures. Fluid properties changed after the deposition of Middle Triassic Muschelkalk evaporites from low salinity, high temperature (1–6 wt.% NaCleq, 200–270 °C, cooling late-metamorphic basement fluids) to high salinity, moderate temperature (20–26 wt.% (NaCl + CaCl2), 50–170 °C, mixture of a modified bittern brine (“basement brine”) with halite dissolution brine). This change led to large scale ore deposition (fluorite-barite-quartz with Pb-Zn-Cu, Bi-Co-Ni-Ag-U, Fe-Mn ores). During the Paleogene and Neogene, previously separated aquifers from various sedimentary units were connected by juxtaposition of the fluid source rocks during Rhinegraben rifting, which resulted in variable salinity and temperature fluids (1–26 wt. % (NaCl + CaCl2), 50–350 °C) by a multi-component fluid mixing process. Typical mineralization related to this shows barren or Pb-Zn-Cu veins with large amounts of barite.

The Miocene Kaiserstuhl Volcanic Complex (Southwest Germany) consists largely of tephritic to phonolitic rocks, accompanied by minor nephelinitic to limburgitic and melilititic to haüynitic lithologies associated with carbonatites. Based on whole-rock geochemistry, petrography, mineralogy and mineral chemistry, combined with mineral equilibrium calculations and fractional crystallization models using the Least Square Fitting Method, we suggest that the Kaiserstuhl was fed by at least two distinct magma sources. The most primitive rock type of the tephritic to phonolitic group is rare monchiquite (basanitic lamprophyre) evolving towards tephrite, phonolitic tephrite, phonolitic noseanite, nosean phonolite and tephritic phonolite by fractional crystallization of variable amounts of clinopyroxene, amphibole, olivine, spinel/magnetite, garnet, titanite, plagioclase and nosean. During this evolution, temperature and silica activity (aSiO2) decrease from about 1100°C and aSiO2 = 0·6–0·8 to 880°C and aSiO2 = ∼0·2. At the same time, oxygen fugacity (fO2) increases from ΔFMQ* = +2–3 to ΔFMQ* = +3–5, with ΔFMQ* being defined as the log fO2 deviation from the silica activity-corrected FMQ buffer curve. Nephelinitic rocks probably derive by fractionation of mostly olivine, spinel/magnetite, melilite, perovskite and nepheline from an olivine melilititic magma. The nephelinitic rocks were formed at similarly high crystallization temperatures (>1000°C) and evolve towards limburgite (hyalo-nepheline basanite) by an increase of silica activity from about aSiO2 = 0·4–0·5 to aSiO2 = 0·5–0·9, whilst redox conditions are buffered to ΔFMQ* values of around +3. Haüyne melilitite and the more evolved (melilite) haüynite may equally be derived from an olivine melilitite by more intense olivine and less melilite fractionation combined with the accumulation of haüyne, clinopyroxene and spinel. These rocks were crystallized at very low silica activities (aSiO2 ≤0·2) and highly oxidized conditions (ΔFMQ* = +4–6). Even higher oxygen fugacities (ΔFMQ* = +6–7) determined for the carbonatite suggests a close genetic relation between these two groups. The assemblage of carbonatites with highly oxidized silicate rocks is typical of many carbonatite occurrences worldwide, at least for those associated with melilititic to nephelinitic silicate rocks. Therefore, we suggest that the existence of highly oxidized carbonate-bearing sublithospheric mantle domains is an important prerequisite to form such complexes.

Hydrothermal five-element veins (Ag-Co-Ni-Bi-As) are mineral successions of native metals, encapsulated by Fe-Co-Ni arsenides and carbonates. Recent studies focused on the evolution from ordinary base-metal systems (sulfide-rich) to five-element veins (sulfide-poor) and revealed the importance of hydrocarbon-dominated fluids as essential redox agent in these systems. Although mineral successions reveal the natural subdivision into native As-, native Ag/Bi- or arsenide-dominated vein types and suggested processes explain the mineralogical variation to a certain degree, the Ni-Co-Fe-variations among the arsenides are not well understood yet. This is the first case study explaining compositional, mineralogical, and textural features of five-element veins by changing metal contents, arsenic/sulfur activities, pH and temperatures, applied to a multi-stage vein mineralization in the Penninic Alps, Switzerland. Textural relationships, mineral chemistry, fluid inclusion compositions (microthermometry and Raman spectroscopy), stable S-isotopes and in-situ U-Pb age dating of carbonates, magnetite and multi-mineral isochrons were investigated. U-Pb ages of paragenetic mineral fractions constrain a primary formation of lollingite-skutterudite-dolomite-dominated ores at 233 ± 10 Ma and niccolite-gersdorffite-skutterudite-ankerite-dominated ores at 188 ± 32 Ma, which links their formation to crustal thinning caused by the breakup of the Meliata ocean and Alpine Tethys. As secondary processes during the Alpine Orogeny, a in-situ remobilization of the ores occurred as mostly ternary Fe-Co-Ni sulfarsenides at ∼73–24 Ma due to continent-continent collision and neoformations of safflorite-cobaltite-skutterudite-dominated ores at ∼29–16 Ma due to transtensional strike-slip tectonics. Ore textures indicate that the dissolution of primary siderite, oxidation of ferrous iron and its precipitation as magnetite was the redox couple to precipitate native Bi, arsenides and sulfarsenides (Bi0, As3− and As−1) from their oxidized aqueous species Bi3+Cl4−, and As3+(OH)3 at temperatures between 200 and 300 °C. Ni and Co signatures of the arsenides/sulfarsenides show increasing mobilization from the host rocks during the successive evolution of the hydrothermal system in the Triassic, Jurassic and during the Alpine Orogeny. Stable S-isotopes and As/S signatures of the sulfarsenides indicate an increasing mobilization of host rock sulfides (i.e. fahlbands) from the primary to the secondary ores. Fluid inclusions and stable S-isotopes suggest involvement of fluid modification by water-rock interactions (i.e. cover rocks: carbonate, sulfate and halite dissolution; basement rocks: albitisation of plagioclase) during fluid descent.