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There are few educational programs in the United States that have a primary focus on preparing nurses to engage in all levels of public health, health policy, and climate change. The United Nations sustainability development goals (SDG) and the Future of Nursing 2020–2030: Charting a Path to Achieve Health Equity (2021) report underscored the importance of key stakeholders, including nurses, engaging in advocacy and policy to promote health equity. We discuss the role of nursing at the intersection of public health, policy, climate change, and the SDG. We also discuss the history and merger of the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) School of Nursing public health and health policy specialties, a significant innovation in our effort to promote health equity. We provide a brief overview of the redesigning of our curriculum that meets the needs of today’s learners by including content on climate change, data analytics, and racial, social, and environmental justice. Finally, we emphasize the need to train the next cadre of nurses interested in careers in public health and health policy for us to meet the challenges facing our communities. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(S3):S321–S327. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306826 )

Land-based transport corridors and related infrastructure are increasingly extending into and across the Arctic in support of resource development and population growth, causing large-scale cumulative changes to northern socio-ecological systems. These changes include the increased mobility of people, goods and resources, and environmental impacts on landscapes and ecosystems as the human footprint reaches remote, unindustrialized regions. Arctic climate change is also generating new challenges for the construction and maintenance of these transport systems, requiring adaptive engineering solutions as well as community resilience. In this review article, we consider the complex entanglements between humans, the environment, and land transportation infrastructure in the North and illustrate these interrelations by way of seven case studies: the Baikal–Amur Mainline, Bovanenkovo Railway, Alaska–Canada Highway, Inuvik–Tuktoyatuk Highway, Alaska Railroad, Hudson Bay Railway, and proposed railways on Baffin Island, Canada. As new infrastructure is built and anticipated across the circumpolar North, there is an urgent need for an integrated socio-ecological approach to impact assessment. This would include full consideration of Indigenous knowledge and concerns, collaboration with local communities and user groups in assessment, planning and monitoring, and evaluation of alternative engineering designs to contend with the impacts of climate change in the decades ahead.

Restoration science is growing fast. The restoration of habitats is increasingly part of the discussion over how to tackle the challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and rural development. With this increasing role and attendant visibility, restoration science has seen increasing controversy. Here I describe six aspects of robust restoration science that should be kept in mind to help realize its potential: do data-driven studies; focus on robust results; improve reproducibility; contextualize the results; give attention to economics; consider the wider goals of restoration. Realizing the potential of restoration science, via robust scientific studies, will provide society with the knowledge and tools to make better choices about which habitats to restore and where.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration’.

Ligula intestinalis is a cestode parasite that affects freshwater fish in different countries of the world. The current study aims to reveal the phylogenetic, genetic and haplotype diversity of mt-CO1 gene sequences sent to the NCBI database from different countries by using in-silico analysis. The 105 mt-CO1 (371 bp) gene sequences of L. intestinalis obtained from NCBI were used for bioinformatics analyses. Sequences were subjected to phylogenetic and haplotype analysis. As a result of the haplotype analysis of L. intestinalis, 38 haplotypes were obtained from 13 different countries. Hap24 constituted 44.76% of the obtained haplotype network. Changes in nucleotides between haplotypes occurred at 1-84 different points. China and Turkey have highest fixation index (Fst) values of 0.59761, while the lowest (-0.10526) was found between Russia and Turkey. This study provides a baseline for future studies on extensive scale on the epidemiology, ecological aspects, distribution pattern, transmission dynamics and population dispersion of L. intestinalis worldwide. Resumo Ligula intestinalis é um parasita cestódeo que acomete peixes de água doce em diversos países do mundo. O presente estudo visa revelar a diversidade filogenética, genética e de haplótipos das sequências do gene mt-CO1 enviadas ao banco de dados do NCBI de diferentes países, por meio de análise in-silico. As sequências gênicas de 105 mt-CO1 (371 pb) de L. intestinalis obtidas do NCBI foram utilizadas para análises bioinformáticas. As sequências foram submetidas a análise filogenética e de haplótipos. Como resultado da análise de haplótipos de L. intestinalis, 38 haplótipos foram obtidos de 13 países diferentes. Hap24 constituiu 44,76% da rede de haplótipos obtida. Mudanças nos nucleotídeos entre os haplótipos ocorreram em 1-84 pontos diferentes. A China e a Turquia apresentam os maiores valores do índice de fixação (Fst), 0,59761, enquanto o menor (-0,10526) foi encontrado entre a Rússia e a Turquia. Este estudo fornece uma linha de base para futuros estudos em larga escala sobre epidemiologia, aspectos ecológicos, padrão de distribuição, dinâmica de transmissão e dispersão populacional de L. intestinalis em todo o mundo.

The Amazon hosts one of the largest and richest rainforests in the world, but its origins remain debated. Growing evidence suggests that geodiversity and geological history played essential roles in shaping the Amazonian flora. Here we summarize the geo-climatic history of the Amazon and review paleopalynological records and time-calibrated phylogenies to evaluate the response of plants to environmental change. The Neogene fossil record suggests major sequential changes in plant composition and an overall decline in diversity. Phylogenies of eight Amazonian plant clades paint a mixed picture, with the diversification of most groups best explained by constant speciation rates through time, while others indicate clade-specific increases or decreases correlated with climatic cooling or increasing Andean elevation. Overall, the Amazon forest seems to represent a museum of diversity with a high potential for biological diversification through time. To fully understand how the Amazon got its modern biodiversity, further multidisciplinary studies conducted within a multimillion-year perspective are needed. ▪ The history of the Amazon rainforest goes back to the beginning of the Cenozoic (66 Ma) and was driven by climate and geological forces. ▪ In the early Neogene (23–13.8 Ma), a large wetland developed with episodic estuarine conditions and vegetation ranging from mangroves to terra firme forest. ▪ In the late Neogene (13.8–2.6 Ma), the Amazon changed into a fluvial landscape with a less diverse and more open forest, although the details of this transition remain to be resolved. ▪ These geo-climatic changes have left imprints on the modern Amazonian diversity that can be recovered with dated phylogenetic trees. ▪ Amazonian plant groups show distinct responses to environmental changes, suggesting that Amazonia is both a refuge and a cradle of biodiversity.

Resumen Esta investigación presenta los resultados obtenidos de un estudio realizado con 84 estudiantes universitarios del área de ciencias biológicas, utilizando la metodología de redes semánticas naturales para analizar la construcción social del cambio climático. Los resultados identifican 70 palabras que representan icónicamente el cambio climático. Los pronunciamientos de los estudiantes universitarios incluyen la alteración de las lluvias, cambios en la flora y fauna, escasez de agua, variabilidad climática y el agujero de la capa de ozono. Estas palabras representan el 34,6% de las opiniones obtenidas. El análisis reveló que solo hay una semejanza del 6,25% en el constructo semántico desarrollado entre mujeres y hombres. En conclusión, las redes semánticas proporcionan un espacio para comprender y razonar cómo se entrelazan las representaciones científicas y sociales del cambio climático. Abstract This research presents findings based on a study conducted among 84 university students in the field of life sciences. The study employed the methodology of natural semantic networks to explore the social construction of climate change. The results identified 70 words that are iconic representations of climate change. These words were ranked based on the frequency of their use by the university students, with the top five being alteration of rainfall, changes in flora and fauna, water scarcity, climatic variability, and the hole in the ozone layer. Together, these words accounted for 34.6% of the opinions obtained. The analysis also revealed that there was only a 6.25% difference in the semantic construct developed by men and women. Overall, the study highlights the potential of semantic networks as a tool for understanding how scientific and social representations of climate change are intertwined. Resumo Esta pesquisa apresenta resultados obtidos a partir de um estudo com 84 universitários da área de ciências da vida, utilizando a metodologia de redes semânticas naturais para explorar a construção social das mudanças climáticas. Os resultados identificaram 70 palavras que representam emblematicamente as mudanças climáticas. As pronúncias descritas pelos universitários incluem a alteração das chuvas, mudanças na flora e fauna, escassez de água, variabilidade climática e o buraco na camada de ozônio. Essas palavras representam 34,6% das opiniões obtidas. A análise revelou que apenas 6,25% da semelhança no construto semântico desenvolvido entre homens e mulheres permanece. Em conclusão, as redes semânticas fornecem um espaço para a compreensão e o raciocínio sobre como as representações científicas e sociais estão entrelaçadas.

In this article, we explore how and why the concept of rhythm is crucial to understand how environmental and sustainability education (ESE) may deal with the urgency of taking action regarding climate change. Many activists consider sustainability educators as important allies in this struggle. Our argument is that ESE has a different role and responsibility. Both activism and education can be important allies; however, they operate in different modes and rhythms. Three scholars John Dewey, Michel Alhadeff-Jones and Sharan Todd inspire us with captivating ideas on education as a rhythmic aesthetic experience. Their ideas also show the importance of the interruption of existing rhythms for opening new perspectives on how humans relate to the world. Our encounter with these ideas results into a plea for a pedagogy that provides for alternative, aesthetic arrangements of time and space. In line with this, we explore three examples of place-based education. We conclude that there is no time to waste regarding the problems of climate change. However, ESE requires a pedagogy that provides for alternative arrangements of time and space, while enabling educative moments interrupting a linear flow of time, including our familiar experiences of the world.

Although the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is more commonly studied in summer, its influence is also important in winter. In this study, the authors focused on the winter UHI in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and its impact on the urban population, as well as in comparison with a UHI study from 2000. Through a combination of mobile and stationary temperature measurements in different parts of the city, the winter intensity of the UHI in Ljubljana was studied in a dense spatial network of measurements. It was found that the intensity of the winter UHI in Ljubljana decreases as winters become warmer and less snowy. The results showed that the winter UHI in Ljubljana intensifies during the night and reaches the greatest intensity at sunrise. During the winter radiation type of weather, the warmest part of Ljubljana reaches an intensity of 3.5 °C in the evening. In total, 22% of the urban area is in the evening UHI intensity range of 2–4 °C, and 65% of the urban population lives in this range. In the morning, the UHI in Ljubljana has a maximum intensity of 5 °C. The area of >4 °C UHI intensity covers 7% of the urban area, and 28% of the total urban population lives in this area. Higher temperatures in urban centers in winter lead to a longer growing season, fewer snow cover days, lower energy consumption and cold stress, and lower mortality from cold-related diseases compared to the colder periphery.

Adobe has been used globally for millennia. In the US Southwest, cultural heritage sites made of adobe materials have lasted hundreds of years in an arid/semi-arid environment. A common prediction across multiple climate change models, however, is that rainfall intensity will increase in the US Southwest. This increased erosivity threatens the long-term protection and preservation of these sites, and thus resource managers are faced with selecting effective conservation practices. For this reason, modeling tools are needed to predict climate change impacts and plan for adaptation strategies. Many existing strategies, including patching damaged areas, building protective caps and shelter coating walls are already commonly utilized. In this study, we modeled adobe block construction, subjected extant walls to a local 100-year return interval rainfall intensity, and tested earthen-coat-based strategies to minimize the deterioration of earthen fabric. Findings from the resultant linear models indicate that the patching of earthen architecture alone will not prevent substantial damage, while un-amended encapsulation coats and caps provide similar, and significantly greater protection than patching. The use of this model will enable local heritage resource managers to better target preservation methods for a return on investment of the material and labor costs, resulting in better preservation overall and the retention of culturally valuable resources.

Data Availability Statement: All data are included in the Supporting Information for publication online. Supporting Information is available online at https://setac.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.5620#support-information-section . Copyright © 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. While chemicals are vital to modern society through materials, agriculture, textiles, new technology, medicines, and consumer goods, their use is not without risks. Unfortunately, our resources seem inadequate to address the breadth of chemical challenges to the environment and human health. Therefore, it is important we use our intelligence and knowledge wisely to prepare for what lies ahead. The present study used a Delphi-style approach to horizon-scan future chemical threats that need to be considered in the setting of chemicals and environmental policy, which involved a multidisciplinary, multisectoral, and multinational panel of 25 scientists and practitioners (mainly from the United Kingdom, Europe, and other industrialized nations) in a three-stage process. Fifteen issues were shortlisted (from a nominated list of 48), considered by the panel to hold global relevance. The issues span from the need for new chemical manufacturing (including transitioning to non-fossil-fuel feedstocks); challenges from novel materials, food imports, landfills, and tire wear; and opportunities from artificial intelligence, greater data transparency, and the weight-of-evidence approach. The 15 issues can be divided into three classes: new perspectives on historic but insufficiently appreciated chemicals/issues, new or relatively new products and their associated industries, and thinking through approaches we can use to meet these challenges. Chemicals are one threat among many that influence the environment and human health, and interlinkages with wider issues such as climate change and how we mitigate these were clear in this exercise. The horizon scan highlights the value of thinking broadly and consulting widely, considering systems approaches to ensure that interventions appreciate synergies and avoid harmful trade-offs in other areas. We recommend further collaboration between researchers, industry, regulators, and policymakers to perform horizon scanning to inform policymaking, to develop our ability to meet these challenges, and especially to extend the approach to consider also concerns from countries with developing economies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1–17. © 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Building on cornerstone traditions in historical sociology, as well as work in environmental sociology and political-economic sociology, we theorize and investigate with moderation analysis how and why national militaries shape the effect of economic growth on carbon pollution. Militaries exert a substantial influence on the production and consumption patterns of economies, and the environmental demands required to support their evolving infrastructure. As far-reaching and distinct characteristics of contemporary militarization, we suggest that both the size and capital intensiveness of the world’s militaries enlarge the effect of economic growth on nations’ carbon emissions. In particular, we posit that each increases the extent to which the other amplifies the effect of economic growth on carbon pollution. To test our arguments, we estimate longitudinal models of emissions for 106 nations from 1990 to 2016. Across various model specifications, robustness checks, a range of sensitivity analyses, and counterfactual analysis, the findings consistently support our propositions. Beyond advancing the environment and economic growth literature in sociology, this study makes significant contributions to sociological research on climate change and the climate crisis, and it underscores the importance of considering the military in scholarship across the discipline.

The concentration and sources of organic nitrogen (ON) in lake sediment significantly affect the lake nitrogen cycle. However, the influencing factors and contributors to the ON accumulation rate (ONAR) are unclear. In this study, tree sediment cores from northern, eastern, and southern Dianchi Lake (DC-N, DC-E, and DC-S, respectively), sampled in July 2014, were used to study the effects of autochthonous and allochthonous sources on ON. The results showed that ON and the ONAR increased 2.4–5.1 and 2.6–4.8 times, respectively, from1900 to2000, especially since the 1980s, at which point algal blooms occurred more frequently. The ON contents decreased in the order: DC-S > DC-N > DC-E, whereas the ONAR values followed the order: DC-N > DC-S > DC-E, suggesting that the ONAR was influenced by ON content as well as depositional environmental conditions. The total concentrations of n-alkanes (n-C12 to n-C34) ranged from 4719.4 ng g− 1 to 61,959.6 ng g− 1 in the three sediment cores, each of which exhibited different n-alkanes characteristic variation with vertical depth. The sources of ON were mainly allochthonous (soil erosion and terrestrial plants) and autochthonous (algal and aquatic plants) in DC-S and DC-N, respectively, whereas they were primarily mixed planktonic and terrestrial sources in DC-E. Using the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model to further examine the ONAR values revealed that 1% increase in temperature and nitrogen fertilizer can increase the ONAR by 73.8–86.2% and 73.2–151.3% in all sediments, especially in DC-S and DC-E. However, a 1% increase in construction area could reduce the ONAR by 2.4–14.2%, especially in DC-N. Overall, climate change and human activities determine the spatial and temporal ONAR variation in Dianchi Lake.

Pollen-based vegetation, biodiversity, and biome reconstructions over the last 15,500 years from sediment core data at Mbi Crater in the Cameroon highlands (6.089273° N, 10.348549° E; 2015 m above sea level) are used to discuss the behavior of the lower edge of the Afromontane forest facing climate change. The data reveal that the post-glacial forest change gradually happened at Mbi and that the forest-wooded grassland ecotone was highly influenced by the climate variability related to the North Atlantic. The forest disruption and diversity loss intermittently occurred over the whole period, and their vegetation changes temporally match dry-cold events at the northern latitudes during the Younger Dryas, at 9.5–9.1 ka, 8.6–8.0 ka, 6.7–6.0 ka, 3.2 ka, and during the Little Ice Age (LIA). During the LIA, the mountain forest was subject to unprecedented levels of disturbance at all altitudes, unlike the seasonal lowland forests, which appears to have been only marginally affected.

How do rising temperatures affect long-term labor reallocation in developing economies? In this paper we examine how increases in temperature impact structural transformation and urbanization within Indian districts between 1951 and 2011. We find that rising temperatures are associated with lower shares of workers in nonagricultural sectors, with effects intensifying over a longer time frame. Supporting evidence suggests that local demand effects play an important role: declining agricultural productivity under higher temperatures reduces the demand for nonagricultural goods and services, which subsequently lowers nonagricultural labor demand. Our results illustrate that rising temperatures limit sectoral and rural-urban mobility for isolated households. (JEL J61, N35, O13, O15, O18, Q54, R23)

Photovoltaik-Freiflächenanlagen haben das Potenzial, zu einem der zentralen Elemente des kommenden Energiesystems zu werden. Der Bund sieht inzwischen einen erheblichen und raschen Ausbau vor. Inwieweit in den Regionen und Gemeinden jedoch entsprechende Planungen und Maßnahmen erfolgen, wird absehbar auch von den raumordnerischen Regelungen des Bundes und der Länder abhängen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird erläutert, dass hier jeweils erhebliche Unterstützungs- und Steuerungsmöglichkeiten zur Flankierung der Ausbaubemühungen zur Verfügung stehen. Aufgezeigt werden dabei auch Querbezüge zum Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz sowie dem Baugesetzbuch und es wird dargelegt, dass die unterschiedlichen Arten von Photovoltaik-Freiflächenanlagen teilweise ein differenziertes Vorgehen erfordern werden. Regiopolises and regiopolitan regions are receiving unprecedented attention in German spatial planning policy. In addition to the promotion of the German RegioPole network by the federal government, regiopolises and regiopolitan regions are already designated in several spatial development plans. In the academic discourse, however, regiopolises are hardly taken up. This is particularly evident in the fact that dimensions such as city size (more than 100,000 inhabitants) and spatial location (outside metropolitan regions) are used to empirically identify regiopolises as such. A specific functionality or a specific significance in the German urban system, however, is only hinted at, following the established spatial planning concepts of metropolitan regions and central places. Against this background, this paper examines the question of what constitutes a regional centre or region in terms of its specific functionality and what significance it has in the urban system. The international discourses on second-tires-cities, borrowed size and agglomeration shadow are also taken up.

Funding: Data collection was largely funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) project TREMOR (NE/N004655/1) to D.G., E.G. and O.P., with further funds from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES, finance code 001) to J.V.T. and a University of Leeds Climate Research Bursary Fund to J.V.T. D.G., E.G. and O.P. acknowledge further support from a NERC-funded consortium award (ARBOLES, NE/S011811/1). This paper is an outcome of J.V.T.’s doctoral thesis, which was sponsored by CAPES (GDE 99999.001293/2015-00). J.V.T. was previously supported by the NERC-funded ARBOLES project (NE/S011811/1) and is supported at present by the Swedish Research Council Vetenskapsrådet (grant no. 2019-03758 to R.M.). E.G., O.P. and D.G. acknowledge support from NERC-funded BIORED grant (NE/N012542/1). O.P. acknowledges support from an ERC Advanced Grant and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. R.S.O. was supported by a CNPq productivity scholarship, the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP-Microsoft 11/52072-0) and the US Department of Energy, project GoAmazon (FAPESP 2013/50531-2). M.M. acknowledges support from MINECO FUN2FUN (CGL2013-46808-R) and DRESS (CGL2017-89149-C2-1-R). C.S.-M., F.B.V. and P.R.L.B. were financed by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES, finance code 001). C.S.-M. received a scholarship from the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq 140353/2017-8) and CAPES (science without borders 88881.135316/2016-01). Y.M. acknowledges the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and ERC Advanced Investigator Grant (GEM-TRAITS, 321131) for supporting the Global Ecosystems Monitoring (GEM) network (gem.tropicalforests.ox.ac.uk), within which some of the field sites (KEN, TAM and ALP) are nested. The authors thank Brazil–USA Collaborative Research GoAmazon DOE-FAPESP-FAPEAM (FAPESP 2013/50533-5 to L.A.) and National Science Foundation (award DEB-1753973 to L. Alves). They thank Serrapilheira Serra-1709-18983 (to M.H.) and CNPq-PELD/POPA-441443/2016-8 (to L.G.) (P.I. Albertina Lima). They thank all the colleagues and grants mentioned elsewhere [8,36] that established, identified and measured the Amazon forest plots in the RAINFOR network analysed here. The authors particularly thank J. Lyod, S. Almeida, F. Brown, B. Vicenti, N. Silva and L. Alves. This work is an outcome approved Research Project no. 19 from ForestPlots.net, a collaborative initiative developed at the University of Leeds that unites researchers and the monitoring of their permanent plots from the world’s tropical forests [61]. The authros thank A. Levesley, K. Melgaço Ladvocat and G. Pickavance for ForestPlots.net management. They thank Y. Wang and J. Baker, respectively, for their help with the map and with the climatic data. The authors acknowledge the invaluable help of M. Brum for kindly providing the comparison of vulnerability curves based on PAD and on PLC shown in this manuscript. They thank J. Martinez-Vilalta for his comments on an early version of this manuscript. The authors also thank V. Hilares and the Asociación para la Investigación y Desarrollo Integral (AIDER, Puerto Maldonado, Peru); V. Saldaña and Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana (IIAP) for local field campaign support in Peru; E. Chavez and Noel Kempff Natural History Museum for local field campaign support in Bolivia; ICMBio, INPA/NAPPA/LBA COOMFLONA (Cooperativa mista da Flona Tapajós) and T. I. Bragança-Marituba for the research support. Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink. Publisher PDF

Climate change may impact human health through the influence of weather on environmental transmission of diarrhea. Previous studies have found that high temperatures and heavy precipitation are associated with increased diarrhea prevalence, but the underlying causal mechanisms have not been tested and validated. We linked measurements of Escherichia coli in source water (n = 1673), stored drinking water (n = 9692), and hand rinses from children

The global consequences of rapid climate change cannot be overstated. In Africa, drought, flooding and environmental degradation are increasingly important drivers of migration, affecting already vulnerable and indigenous persons, together with factors such as conflict, poverty, and weak democratic governance. This article argues for alternative ways to protect vulnerable persons, alternatives which include regional integration frameworks on mobility. The article interrogates existing regional and subregional migration frameworks in Africa in order to ascertain the level of obligation to protect and facilitate the movement of those compelled to flee disaster-affected areas and seek safety in neighbouring countries. Regional and sub-regional groupings need to learn from each other, as well as utilise and expand on existing provisions for the free movement of people, to effectively accommodate the growing trend of migration due to environmental concerns. A laudable measure to ensure protection and facilitate the movement of such vulnerable persons can be found in the recently endorsed Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m2 resolution. ISSN:1354-1013 ISSN:1365-2486

The temporal and spatial variation in seasonal sea ice in Arctic Bay, Nunavut, are examined using time series and spatial clustering analyses. For the period of 1971 to 2018, a time series of sea ice break-up, and freeze-up, dates and ice-free season length at nine grid points are generated from sea ice charts derived from satellites and other data. These data are analysed temporally and spatially. The temporal analyses indicate an unambiguous response to a warming climate with statistically significant earlier break-up dates, later freeze-up dates, and longer ice-free seasons with clear statistically significant linkages to local air temperature. The rate of change in freeze-up dates and ice-free season length was particularly strong in the early 2000s and less in the 2010s. Spatial clustering analysis indicated a roughly linear pathway of south to north behaviour, following the contours of the bay with the exception of modified behaviour for landfast sea ice near the hamlet of Arctic Bay. The temporal analysis confirms and expands upon an earlier time series analysis of local seasonal sea ice. The spatial analysis indicates that while the ice-free season is increasing, it does not provide clear evidence that there has been a regime change in the seasonal characteristics of how sea ice forms and melts each year.

The highly destructive Asian brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys, BMSB) invaded Europe, Caucasus region, and North and South America. Efforts to control it are ongoing in the Palearctic European-Mediterranean Basin and North America by introducing and redistributing two Asian stenophagous scelionid egg parasitoids (Trissolcus japonicus and T. mitsukurii) that are attacked by an adventive oligophagous pteromalid Asian hyperparasitoid (Acroclisoides sinicus). Large BMSB nymphs and adults may be parasitized by new associations of oligophagous tachinid flies and immature stages by egg parasitoids and predators. The terms stenophagous and oligophagous are commonly used to define narrow and wider ranges, respectively, of food eaten, but here they refer to the range of hosts attacked by adult female parasitoids. A holistic weather-driven physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) of the tritrophic interactions was developed to evaluate prospectively the impact of natural enemies on the biological control of BMSB under current and climate change weather. Our study focuses on the European-Mediterranean region, with the results for the USA, Mexico, and Central America reported as supplementary information. The PBDM analysis suggests that biotypes of the egg parasitoids T. japonicus and T. mitsukurii with high search capacity could suppress BMSB regionally, but the requisite levels of parasitism by these parasitoids for economic control are not observed in their native range nor in invaded areas. The model suggests that the action of T. japonicus is greater than that of T. mitsukurii, but that joint interactions of the two egg parasitoids would provide higher mortality of BMSB. Field data and model results suggest that the egg hyperparasitoid A. sinicus has a modest negative impact on the suppression of BMSB. Moreover, tachinid parasitoids of adults could have an important supplemental role in suppressing BMSB densities. Analysis suggests that new biotypes of egg parasitoids and species of tachinid parasitoids of large nymphs and adults be sought.

Ocean heat content (OHC) is one of the most relevant metrics tracking the current global heating. Therefore, simulated OHC time series are a cornerstone for assessing the scientific performance of Earth system models and global climate models. Here we present a detailed analysis of OHC change in simulations of the historical climate (1850–2014) performed with two pairs of CMIP6 models: U.K. Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1.0) and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, and CNRM-ESM2-1 and CNRM-CM6-1. The small number of models enables us to analyze OHC change globally and for individual ocean basins, making use of a novel ensemble of observational products. For the top 700 m of the global ocean, the two CNRM models reproduce the observed OHC change since the 1960s closely. The two U.K. models (UKESM1.0-LL and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL) compensate a lack of warming in the 0–700 m layer in the 1970s and 1980s with warming below 2000 m. The observed warming between 700 and 2000 m is substantially underestimated by all models. An increased relevance for ocean heat uptake in the Atlantic after 1991—suggested by observations—is picked up by the U.K. models but less so by the CNRM models, probably related to an AMOC strengthening in the U.K. models. The regional ocean heat uptake characteristics differ even though all four models share the same ocean component (NEMO ORCA1). Differences in the simulated global, full-depth OHC time series can be attributed to differences in the model’s total effective radiative forcing.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. Early prediction of CO2 is critical for developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change. A sophisticated version of the extreme learning machine (ELM), the wavelet enhanced extreme learning machine (W-EELM), is used to predict CO2 on different time scales (weekly, monthly, and yearly). Data were collected from the Mauna Loa Observatory station in Hawaii, which is ideal for global air sampling. Instead of the traditional method (singular value decomposition), a complete orthogonal decomposition (COD) was used to accurately calculate the weights of the ELM output layers. Another contribution of this study is the removal of noise from the input signal using the wavelet transform technique. The results of the W-EELM model are compared with the results of the classical ELM. Various statistical metrics are used to evaluate the models, and the comparative figures confirm the superiority of the applied models over the ELM model. The proposed W-EELM model proves to be a robust and applicable computer-based technology for modeling CO2concentrations, which contributes to the fundamental knowledge of the environmental engineering perspective. Validerad;2023;Nivå 2;2023-06-01 (joosat);Funder: Al-Maarif University CollegeLicens fulltext: CC BY License

Data availability for in situ spatial variability assessment of hydraulic parameters is always limited in the vadose zone. In this work, laboratory and in situ experimental methods of parameter estimation were compared to investigate the best estimation method for heterogeneous soil. The Marquardt–Levenberg and non-linear least-squares optimisation algorithms were used for parameter estimation. The simulation error was minimised by selecting sensitive parameters during the numerical solution. The shape factor n was found to be the most sensitive parameter, followed by water content θs, saturated hydraulic conductivity (SHC) and the inverse of the air entry α. Compared with the in situ cumulative infiltration and simultaneous methods, the outflow method resulted in the best fit by minimising the error. During the comparison of outflow and cumulative infiltration methods, only θs showed a significant difference (p = 0.00). On the other hand, SHC showed a non-significant difference (p = 0.439) when the outflow and simultaneous methods were compared. During model predictions, the SHC measured by the simultaneous method showed reasonable estimates for surface horizon and weak correlations (0.79 and 0.77) with deep soil water content, which could be improved by adding more hydraulic parameters. The cumulative infiltration numerical solution resulted in the most reliable estimates of hydraulic parameters for in situ heterogeneous soil.

The impacts of climate change on the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources of the Khorramabad basin were evaluated. Monthly temperature and rainfall modelled using HadCM3 and CGCM2 under greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (GHGESs) A2 and B2 were downscaled to baseline (1971–2000) and future periods (2040–2069 and 2070–2099). Simulations were performed for four climate change scenarios (CCSs) (A2-2040–2069, A2-2070–2099, B2-2040–2069 and B2-2070–2099). The projections indicated an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Future surface water resources were simulated using IHACRES. The results indicated that average annual runoff under GHGESs A2 and B2 would decrease by, respectively, 2.03% and 4.17% in 2040–2069 and by 6.64% and 8.94% in 2070–2099. Groundwater simulation was carried out using ModFlow. The results showed that under, the four CCSs, groundwater level would decline by 2.3, 3.0, 2.5 and 3.4%, respectively, relative to the baseline. Aquifer recharge under the four scenarios would decline by 1.43, 5.71, 2.86 and 7.14%, respectively. The results from IHACRES and ModFlow were employed to develop a conjunctive operation model with the Weap model. Several CCSs with various levels of future water demand were assessed using Weap. A 20% increase in water demand relative to the baseline, for instance, was projected to produce annual deficits in future agricultural water supply of 3.3, 5.08, 3.05 and 5.18 (× 106 m3), respectively, under the four CCSs.

El artículo presenta el desarrollo de la aplicación móvil denominada Navega Seguro, la cual ha involucrado herramientas de big data y un marco de referencia del uso de aplicativos que usan datos abiertos públicos frente a temáticas del derecho TIC, como la protección de datos, los términos y condiciones de la aplicación, el acceso a la información y la ciberseguridad, por medio de este estudio de caso. Navega Seguro ha sido desarrollada en el marco de la investigación internacional “Derecho, cambio climático y big data. Fase II”, con un enfoque interdisciplinario, que permite observar las fortalezas del trabajo investigativo de áreas como el derecho, la ingeniería, las comunicaciones y el diseño, con el apoyo de organizaciones gubernamentales. This article presents the development of the Navega Seguro mobile app, which used big data tools and a framework for the use of apps that utilize open data regarding subjects related to information and communication technology (ICT) law such as data protection, application terms and conditions, access to information, and cybersecurity, through this case study. The Navega Seguro has been developed as part of the second phase of the international research program “Law, Climate Change, and Big Data,” with a collective and interdisciplinary approach in areas such as law, engineering, communications, and design, with the support of governmental organizations.

Water basins are the primary food sources, giving green water and blue water worldwide. Despite the basins’ potential, information on the periodical variations in blue water and green water is sparse, particularly in developing countries. The study specifically evaluated the changes in land use and land cover variability (LULCV), effects of land use and land cover variability on green water and blue water variations, and effects of climatic changes on green water and blue water. The evaluation involved the Enhanced Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager satellite images of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. Image processing utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in ArcGIS software. The land use and land cover variabilities indicated that land use supporting social-economic activities increased, while natural land cover decreased. Proportionally, blue water per annum was decreasing due to declining natural vegetation, enhanced by the increased socio-economic activities. Whereas, the increase in green water per annum was due to the increased temperatures, boosted by climate changes. Since the temperature rise is mainly uncontrolled, greenhouse farming should be encouraged for making green water more productive in agriculture and communities should be encouraged to practice environmentally friendly anthropogenic activities for sustainable green water and blue water management. Keywords: Basin, Green water, Blue water, SWAT model, Climate change

This study examined the occurrence of meteorological drought in the context of climate change over the extreme northeastern region of Nigeria using rainfall and temperature data spanning a period of 60 years (1961-2020) and 40 years (1981-2020), respectively. Linear regression, 5-year moving average and Cramer’s test were used to examine the changes in the rainfall and temperature. Rainfall Anomaly Index was used in depicting periods of different drought intensities in the region. The trend analysis of the climate data revealed that the region has been experiencing increasing rainfall and temperature in recent years. Findings also revealed that the droughts of the 1980s were more severe than the Great Sahelian Droughts of 1968-1973. The year 1987 was the driest in the whole period of study (1961–2020). Contrariwise, about 81% of the region from 2000 to 2020 experienced normal to very wet conditions. The mean probabilities of mild, moderate, and severe droughts in the area were 0.14 (recurrence interval of 8 years), 0.11 (recurrence interval of 11 years), and 0.07 (recurrence interval of 16 years), respectively. This study concludes that the number of drought occurrences has decreased in recent years. Therefore, government policies related to agriculture and water resources development in the area should take into account the increasing rainfall and temperature in recent years. Keywords: Climate Change, Meteorological drought, Rainfall, Recurrence Interval, Severe Drought, Temperature

Coastal ecosystems are subjected to an increasing number of anthropogenic drivers, including marine renewable energies and climate change (CC). These drivers can interact in complex ways, which may lead to cumulative effects (CEs) whose potential consequences on the ecosystems need to be addressed. We used a holistic approach—ecological network analysis (ENA)—coupled with a two-dimensional food web model—Ecospace—to conduct an ecosystem study of the CEs of CC plus the operation of an offshore wind farm on ecosystem functioning in the extended Bay of Seine (English Channel). Mapped ENA indices showed that CEs were not restricted to the wind farm area, i.e. where anthropogenic drivers are concomitant. CEs varied both in space and among ecosystem properties, displaying that ENA indices can distinguish between different cumulative pathways that modify ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. Moreover, the effects seemed to be tied to the structuring role of CC, and differed under the 2050 and 2100 conditions. Such changes resulted in stronger loss of ecosystem resilience under the 2100 conditions despite the benefits of the reef and reserve effects of the wind farm.

The global shift from a fossil fuel-based to an electrical-based society is commonly viewed as an ecological improvement. However, the electrical power industry is a major source of carbon dioxide emissions, and incorporating renewable energy can still negatively impact the environment. Despite rising research in renewable energy, the impact of renewable energy consumption on the environment is poorly known. Here, we review the integration of renewable energies into the electricity sector from social, environmental, and economic perspectives. We found that implementing solar photovoltaic, battery storage, wind, hydropower, and bioenergy can provide 504,000 jobs in 2030 and 4.18 million jobs in 2050. For desalinization, photovoltaic/wind/battery storage systems supported by a diesel generator can reduce the cost of water production by 69% and adverse environmental effects by 90%, compared to full fossil fuel systems. The potential of carbon emission reduction increases with the percentage of renewable energy sources utilized. The photovoltaic/wind/hydroelectric system is the most effective in addressing climate change, producing a 2.11–5.46% increase in power generation and a 3.74–71.61% guarantee in share ratios. Compared to single energy systems, hybrid energy systems are more reliable and better equipped to withstand the impacts of climate change on the power supply.

Drought poses large risks to ecosystem services and agricultural production because of their devastating impacts on the environment, economy, and society (Zhang, Keenan & Zhou, 2021). Generally, drought classied into four types including meteorological drought, soil drought, hydrological drought, and social-economic drought (Wilhite & Pulwarty, 2017), which are strongly-correlated with sustained precipitation deficit but various elements of hydrosphere response to drought in different degrees (AghaKouchak et al., 2015). The combination of interacting physical processes across several related droughts is referred to as the compound droughts

High temperature and elevated CO2 under future climate change will influence the agricultural productivity worldwide. Burgeoning population along with climate change situation is going to threaten the food security of India. According to IPCC 5th assessment report (2014), global mean surface temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the end of 21st century will increase by 4.8°C and 539 ppm respectively under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Considering the burning issue present study aims to find out the probable change in different climatic parameters under high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5) scenario during 2021-2095 and their impact on wheat yield and water productivity over six locations (Jalpaiguri, Nadia, Murshidabad, Malda, Birbhum and South 24 Parganas) covering five major agro-climatic zones of West Bengal, a state of eastern India. Results showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase by 5.3oC and 5.9oC during the end of this century. The increase in annual rainfall will be maximum (22%) at Murshidabad. Wheat yield will increase by 3 to 28% across the study sites. The seasonal crop evapotranspiration value will decline by 1 to 21%. Both water- use efficiency (WUE) and transpiration -use efficiency (TUE) will increase at all the study sites.

Survival and growth of woody species in the Mediterranean are mainly restricted by water availability. We tested the hypothesis that Mediterranean species acclimate their xylem vulnerability and osmotic potential along a precipitation gradient.We studied five predominant co-occurring Mediterranean species; Quercus calliprinos, Pistacia palaestina, Pistacia lentiscus, Rhamnus lycioides and Phillyrea latifolia, over two summers at three sites. The driest of the sites is the distribution edge for all the five species. We measured key hydraulic and osmotic traits related to drought resistance, including resistance to embolism (psi(50)) and the seasonal dynamics of water and osmotic potentials.The leaf water potentials (psi(l)) of all species declined significantly along the summer, reaching significantly lower psi(l) at the end of summer in the drier sites. Surprisingly, we did not find plasticity along the drought gradient in psi(50) or osmotic potentials. This resulted in much narrower hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) in the drier sites, where some species experienced significant embolism.Our analysis indicates that reduction in HSM to null values put Mediterranean species in embolism risk as they approach their hydraulic limit near the geographical dry edge of their distribution.

Arctic stream biofilm responses to ongoing climate-related changes in physical and chemical conditions have major implications for stream food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Yet, such effects have rarely been studied outside summer months or at sub-catchment scales in the Arctic. We used deployments of nutrient diffusing substrates (NDS) to assess the spatial (20 deployments) and seasonal patterns (10 deployments) and physical and chemical drivers of nutrient limitation within an Arctic stream catchment. Results show that nutrient limitation of autotrophic processes was common during summer, but that light inhibited biomass accrual under the ice in winter. Alongside single N, P and C responses, co-limitation dominated the overall pattern of limitation over time and across the catchment. However, the primary limiting nutrient to autotrophs changed from N to P in parts of the catchment with higher N concentrations. As Arctic studies are often conducted at individual sites during summer, these may miss shifts in the drivers of stream productivity that arise from variable nutrient, temperature, and light regimes. Our results caution against focusing on one single most important limiting nutrient, as we found that this can shift seasonally and over small spatial scales in this Arctic catchment.

In the last few decades, the global temperature increase is something society cannot avoid. Thus, each country's international policies at COP 26 deal with this phenomenon. Among these international policies to minimize the temperature rise that has occurred, are the presence of non-party-stakeholders, one of them indigenous peoples with a variety of local knowledge in maintaining the sustainability of forest ecosystems. In case of that, this study discusses efforts for the climate change mitigation and adaptation of Toro customary communities in Lore Lindu National Park. This study used a qualitative descriptive approach with a Delphi study. The results of our study show the effort of Toro communities to mitigate and adapt the climate change divided by the Nature School of Ngata Toro, Ombo, and the advantage of the land space of the forest. The development of these three patterns would greatly benefit Indonesia's program policy (FoLU Net Sink 2030). In order for the community to be aware of the values of local wisdom that may be applied in forest management in order to mitigate climate change, LLNP as the owner of a conservation area surrounding the forest, must be able to translate this potential efficiently.

Urban land-use change has the potential to affect local to global biogeochemical carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. We conducted a meta-analysis to (1) assess the effects of urbanization-induced land-use conversion on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes, (2) quantify direct N2O emission factors (EFd) of fertilized urban soils used, for example, as lawns or forests, and (3) identify the key drivers leading to flux changes associated with urbanization. On average, urbanization increases soil N2O emissions by 153%, to 3.0 kg N ha−1 year−1, while rates of soil CH4 uptake are reduced by 50%, to 2.0 kg C ha−1 year−1. The global mean annual N2O EFd of fertilized lawns and urban forests is 1.4%, suggesting that urban soils can be regional hotspots of N2O emissions. On a global basis, conversion of land to urban greenspaces has increased soil N2O emission by 0.46 Tg N2O-N year−1 and decreased soil CH4 uptake by 0.58 Tg CH4-C year−1. Urbanization driven changes in soil N2O emission and CH4 uptake are associated with changes in soil properties (bulk density, pH, total N content, and C/N ratio), increased temperature, and management practices, especially fertilizer use. Overall, our meta-analysis shows that urbanization increases soil N2O emissions and reduces the role of soils as a sink for atmospheric CH4. These effects can be mitigated by avoiding soil compaction, reducing fertilization of lawns, and by restoring native ecosystems in urban landscapes.

Studies examining the underlying causes of the distributions of species and their future trajectories under climate change have benefitted from the accumulation of measurements of thermal tolerance across the tree of life. However, gaps in the global coverage of heat-tolerance data for ectotherms persist on four critical fronts. First, most large-scale analyses treat heat tolerance as a fixed species trait despite that population-level variation can equal or exceed cross-species variation. Second, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates and aquatic ectotherms other than bony fish have been poorly sampled, particularly in boreal and tropical regions, the Indian Ocean and the mesopelagic-deep ocean. Third, the study of climate impacts on the heat tolerance of terrestrial ectotherms has often neglected the interaction of environmental temperatures with water availability. And fourth, the mechanisms driving the dependence of heat tolerance on oxygen supply-demand remain largely unknown. We contend that filling those data and knowledge gaps requires novel strategies for the ecophysiological sampling of the range of understudied populations and species that occupy the length of climatic gradients globally. Such developments are essential for comprehensively predicting species responses to climate change across aquatic and terrestrial biomes., British Ecological Society ‘Research Grant’ 4496-5470 to S.H.P., European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 871081 (AQUACOSM-plus) to M.B.A, and Spanish Ministry of Science grants CGL2011-26852 to M.B.A. and S.H.P. and CGL2017-89898-R to D.R.V.

Water scarcity is the most obstacle faced by irrigation water requirements, likewise, limited available meteorological data to calculate reference evapotranspiration. Consequently, the focal aims of the investigation are to assess the potential of machine learning models in forecasting irrigation water requirements (IWR) of snap beans by evolving multi-scenarios of inputs parameters to figure out the impact of meteorological, crop, and soil parameters on IWR. Six models were applied, support vector regressor (SVR), random forest (RF), deep neural networks (DNN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and Hybrid CNN-LSTM. Ten variables including maximum and minimum temperature, Relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, root depth, basal crop coefficient, soil evaporation, a fraction of surface wetted and, exposed and soil wetted fraction were used as the input data for models with their combination, 8 input scenarios were designed. Overall models, the best scenario was scenario 4 (relative humidity, wind speed, basal crop coefficient, soil evaporation), however, the best scenario for DNN and RF model was scenario 7 (root depth, basal crop coefficient, soil evaporation, fraction of surface wetted, exposed and soil wetted fraction). While the weakest one was the group of climatic factors in scenario 6 (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation). Among the models, the hybrid LTSM & CNN was the most accurate and the SVR model had the lowest estimation accuracy. The outcomes of this research work could set up a modeling strategy that would set in motion the improvement of efforts to identify the shortages in IWR forecasting, which sequentially may support alleviation strategies such as policies for sustainable water use and water resources management. The current approach was promising and has research value for other similar regions. Validerad;2023;Nivå 2;2023-04-18 (joosat);Licens fulltext: CC BY License

In this editorial, we consider the ways in which liberal constitutionalism is challenged by and presents challenges to the climate crisis facing the world. Over recent decades, efforts to mitigate the climate crisis have generated a new set of norms for states and non-state actors, including regulatory norms (emission standards, carbon regulations), organising principles (common but differentiated responsibility) and fundamental norms (climate justice, intergenerational rights, human rights). However, like all norms, these remain contested. Particularly in light of their global reach, their specific behavioural implications and interpretations and the related obligations to act remain debatable and the overwhelming institutionalization of the neoliberal market economy makes clear and effective responses to climate change virtually impossible within liberal societies.

Climate change has had large impacts on marine animals, including neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii (O. bartramii) in the North Pacific Ocean. O. bartramii statoliths from 2012, 2015, and 2016 were used to evaluate the variations in life cycle events. The relationship between mantle length and body weight showed significant differences between years and gender. The oldest squid was collected in 2016 at 271 days old, further proving that O. bartramii has nearly a 1-year life span. The hatching season ranged from December to May and the peak hatching time in 2015 was one-half month later than in 2012 and 2016. Growth rates varied with environmental factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a concentration (chl. a), indicating that higher SST and chl. a concentrations led to faster growth. An extreme El Nino event with lower SST in 2015 also led to younger age class and slower growth rates. The occurrence of differences in body size and growth rates between years, caused by the interannual variations of environmental factors, makes it necessary to use separate growth curves for different years when analyzing North Pacific O. Bartramii populations.

Species that seasonally moult from brown to white to match snowy backgrounds become conspicuous and experience increased predation risk as snow cover duration declines. Long-term adaptation to camouflage mismatch in a changing climate might occur through phenotypic plasticity in colour moult phenology and or evolutionary shifts in moult rate or timing. Also, adaptation may include evolutionary shifts towards winter brown phenotypes that forgo the winter white moult. Most studies of these processes have occurred in winter white populations, with little attention to polymorphic populations with sympatric winter brown and winter white morphs. Here, we used remote camera traps to record moult phenology and mismatch in two polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes in Sweden over 2 years. We found that the colder, more northern population moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring. Next, foxes moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring during colder and snowier years. Finally, white foxes experienced relatively low camouflage mismatch while blue foxes were mismatched against snowy backgrounds most of the autumn through the spring. Because the brown-on-white mismatch imposes no evident costs, we predict that as snow duration decreases, increasing blue morph frequencies might help facilitate species persistence.

Despite the importance of marine megafauna on ecosystem functioning, their contribution to the oceanic carbon cycle is still poorly known. Here, we explored the role of baleen whales in the biological carbon pump across the southern hemisphere based on the historical and forecasted abundance of five baleen whale species. We modelled whale-mediated carbon sequestration through the sinking of their carcasses after natural death. We provide the first temporal dynamics of this carbon pump from 1890 to 2100, considering both the effects of exploitation and climate change on whale populations. We reveal that at their pre-exploitation abundance, the five species of southern whales could sequester 4.0 × 10 5 tonnes of carbon per year (tC yr −1 ). This estimate dropped to 0.6 × 10 5 tC yr −1 by 1972 following commercial whaling. However, with the projected restoration of whale populations under a RCP8.5 climate scenario, the sequestration would reach 1.7 × 10 5 tC yr −1 by 2100, while without climate change, recovered whale populations could sequester nearly twice as much (3.2 × 10 5 tC yr −1 ) by 2100. This highlights the persistence of whaling damages on whale populations and associated services as well as the predicted harmful impacts of climate change on whale ecosystem services.

This paper studies the long-term distribution of energy-efficiency outcomes in the German residential sector. To uncover the underlying energy efficiency of buildings, we estimate the causal response of building-level heat energy demand to variability in heating degree days. We examine heterogeneity in temperature response using both panel fixed-effects and causal forests. Our results suggest that the distribution of energy-efficiency is not equitable in the West of Germany, with buildings located in the South attaining the best energy performance standards. Although the housing stock in the East is significantly older and thus less subject to building standards, they perform better than the West counterpart, likely as a result of large investments in retrofitting post-reunification. Finally, we show that the regional distribution of energy-efficiency reflects differences in heating needs - thus, the poorer energy performance of buildings in the North-West should be weighed against the warmer climatic zone.