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Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow-ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This manuscript aims to build such understanding by synthesizing current knowledge of AA and to produce a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions, specifically the water vapor triple effect, within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA. We recommend raising the priority of Arctic climate sensitivity research, improving the accuracy of Arctic surface energy budget observations, rethinking climate feedback definitions, coordinating new model experiments and intercomparisons, and pursuing the role of episodic variability in AA as a research focus area.

Understanding the radiative-dynamical coupling between upper photosphere and deeper atmosphere is a key in understanding the abnormal large radii of hot Jupiters. One needs very long integration times of 3D general circulation models (GCMs) with self consistent radiative transfer to achieve a better understanding of the feedback process between dynamics and radiation. We here present the longest 3D non-gray GCM study (86000 d) of an ultra hot Jupiter (WASP-76 b) published to this date that reached a final converged state. Furthermore, we present a method that can be used to accelerate the path towards temperature convergence in the deep atmospheric layers. We find that the final converged temperature profile is cold in the deep atmospheric layers, lacking any sign of vertical transport of potential temperature by large scale atmospheric motions. We thus conclude that the coupling between radiation and dynamics alone is not sufficient to explain the abnormal large radii of inflated hot gas giants., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics, Letters to the editor

Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data-model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem delta O-18 records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data-model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on delta O-18 values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices. European Geosciences Union - W2017/413; Irish Centre for Research in Applied Geosciences (iCRAG); European Association of Geochemistry (Early Career Ambassadors program 2017); Quaternary Research Association UK; Navarino Environmental Observatory, Stockholm University; University College Dublin, Savillex (UK) - SF1428; Ibn Zohr University, Morocco; University of Reading; European Research Council - 694481; Natural Environment Research Council (JPI-Belmont project "PAleao-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics (PACMEDY)"); Geological Survey Ireland - 2017-SC-056; Royal Irish Academy; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft - RE3994/2-1; Past Global Changes (PAGES) programme; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can be used as chemical sentinels for the assessment of anthropogenic influences on Arctic environmental change. We present an overview of studies on PCBs in the Arctic and combine these with the findings from ArcRisk—a major European Union-funded project aimed at examining the effects of climate change on the transport of contaminants to and their behaviour of in the Arctic—to provide a case study on the behaviour and impact of PCBs over time in the Arctic. PCBs in the Arctic have shown declining trends in the environment over the last few decades. Atmospheric long-range transport from secondary and primary sources is the major input of PCBs to the Arctic region. Modelling of the atmospheric PCB composition and behaviour showed some increases in environmental concentrations in a warmer Arctic, but the general decline in PCB levels is still the most prominent feature. ‘Within-Arctic’ processing of PCBs will be affected by climate change-related processes such as changing wet deposition. These in turn will influence biological exposure and uptake of PCBs. The pan-Arctic rivers draining large Arctic/sub-Arctic catchments provide a significant source of PCBs to the Arctic Ocean, although changes in hydrology/sediment transport combined with a changing marine environment remain areas of uncertainty with regard to PCB fate. Indirect effects of climate change on human exposure, such as a changing diet will influence and possibly reduce PCB exposure for indigenous peoples. Body burdens of PCBs have declined since the 1980s and are predicted to decline further., Environmental Science and Pollution Research, ISSN:0944-1344, ISSN:1614-7499

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is now moving into its sixth phase and aims at a more routine evaluation of the models as soon as the model output is published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). To meet this goal the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the systematic evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP, has been developed and a first version (1.0) released as open source software in 2015. Here, an enhanced version of the ESMValTool is presented that exploits a subset of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) Phase 2 and this version is used to demonstrate the value of the data for model evaluation. This subset includes consistent, long-term time series of ECVs obtained from harmonized, reprocessed products from different satellite instruments for sea surface temperature, sea ice, cloud, soil moisture, land cover, aerosol, ozone, and greenhouse gases. The ESA CCI data allow 'extending the calculation of performance metrics as summary statistics for some variables and add an important alternative data set in other cases where observations are already available. The provision of uncertainty estimates on a per grid basis for the ESA CCI data sets is used in a new extended version of the Taylor diagram and provides important additional information for a more objective evaluation of the models. In our analysis we place a specific focus on the comparability of model and satellite data both in time and space. The ESA CCI data are well suited for an evaluation of results from global climate models across ESM compartments as well as an analysis of long-term trends, variability and change in the context of a changing climate. The enhanced version of the ESMValTool is released as open source software and ready to support routine model evaluation in CMIP6 and at individual modeling centers. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aerosol-cloud interactions are the largest source of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the global climate. A phenomenon not included in the estimates of the total net forcing is the potential increase in upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) by anthropogenic aerosols via changes in the microphysics of deep convection. Using remote sensing data over the ocean east of China in summer, we show that increased aerosol loads are associated with an UTH increase of 2.2 ± 1.5 in units of relative humidity. We show that humidification of aerosols or other meteorological covariation is very unlikely to be the cause for this result indicating relevance for the global climate. In tropical moist air such an UTH increase leads to a regional radiative effect of 0.5 ± 0.4 W m−2. We conclude that the effect of aerosols on UTH should be included in future studies of anthropogenic climate change and climate sensitivity.

Two hundred fifty-two transient drops in atmospheric pressure, likely caused by passing convective vortices, were detected by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station instrument during the first Martian year of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landed mission. These events resembled the vortex signatures detected by the previous Mars landers Pathfinder and Phoenix; however, the MSL observations contained fewer pressure drops greater than 1.5 Pa and none greater than 3.0 Pa. Apparently, these vortices were generally not lifting dust as only one probable dust devil has been observed visually by MSL. The obvious explanation for this is the smaller number of strong vortices with large central pressure drops since according to Arvidson et al. [2014] ample dust seems to be present on the surface. The annual variation in the number of detected convective vortices followed approximately the variation in Dust Devil Activity (DDA) predicted by the MarsWRF numerical climate model. This result does not prove, however, that the amount of dust lifted by dust devils would depend linearly on DDA, as is assumed in several numerical models of the Martian atmosphere, since dust devils are only the most intense fraction of all convective vortices on Mars, and the amount of dust that can be lifted by a dust devil depends on its central pressure drop. Sol-to-sol variations in the number of vortices were usually small. However, on 1 Martian solar day a sudden increase in vortex activity, related to a dust storm front, was detected.

The aim of this paper is to assess the impacts of projected climate change on a Mediterranean catchment, and to analyze the effects of a suite of representative land use practices as an adaptation tool to reduce climate change-driven erosion and hydrologic extremes. Relevant climatic variables from the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were downscaled for the study area, and perturbed with the anomalies of 23 global circulation models for three emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Both a projected daily rainfall time series for the period 2010-2100, and a single precipitation event with a one-hundred year return period were used to assess the impact of climate change. The downscaled data were fed into a distributed hydro-sedimentary model (TETIS) with five land use configurations representative of future demographic tendencies, geographical characteristics and land management policies (e.g. European Union CAP). The projected changes showed a general decrease in runoff and sediment production by the end of the century regardless of land use configuration. Sediment production showed a positive relationship with an increase in agricultural land and a decrease in natural land under present day agricultural management. According to our simulations, some conservation practices in agriculture can effectively reduce net erosion while maintaining agricultural production. As such, they can play a critical role as an adaptation tool to reduce climate change impacts in the 21st century., This study was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects CLARIES (ref. CGL2011-29176) and PALEOMED (CGL2014-58127-C3-1-R).

The impacts of representing cloud microphysical processes in a stochastic subcolumn framework are investigated, with emphasis on estimating the aerosol indirect effect. It is shown that subgrid treatment of cloud activation and autoconversion of cloud water to rain reduce the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud properties and thus reduce the global mean aerosol indirect effect by 19%, from −1.59 to −1.28 W m−2. This difference is partly related to differences in the model basic state; in particular, the liquid water path (LWP) is smaller and the shortwave cloud radiative forcing weaker when autoconversion is computed separately for each subcolumn. However, when the model is retuned so that the differences in the basic state LWP and radiation balance are largely eliminated, the global-mean aerosol indirect effect is still 14% smaller (i.e. −1.37 W m−2) than for the model version without subgrid treatment of cloud activation and autoconversion. The results show the importance of considering subgrid variability in the treatment of autoconversion. Representation of several processes in a self-consistent subgrid framework is emphasized. This paper provides evidence that omitting subgrid variability in cloud microphysics contributes to the apparently chronic overestimation of the aerosol indirect effect by climate models, as compared to satellite-based estimates.

Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.

Outputs from coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used in examining tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein TPDV is classified as either ENSO-induced TPDV (EIT) or ENSO-like TPDV (ELT), based on their correlations with a decadal modulation index of ENSO amplitude and spatial pattern. EIT is identified by the leading EOF mode of the low-pass filtered equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies and is highly correlated with the decadal ENSO modulation index. This mode is characterized by an east–west dipole structure along the equator. ELT is usually defined by the first EOF mode of subsurface temperature, of which the spatial structure is similar to ENSO. Generally, this mode is insignificantly correlated with the decadal modulation of ENSO. EIT closely interacts with the residuals induced by ENSO asymmetries, both of which show similar spatial structures. On the other hand, ELT is controlled by slowly varying ocean adjustments analogous to a recharge oscillator of ENSO. Both types of TPDV have similar spectral peaks on a decadal-to-interdecadal time scale. Interestingly, the variances of both types of TPDV depend on the strength of connection between El Niño–La Niña residuals and EIT, such that the strong two-way feedback between them enhances EIT and reduces ELT. The strength of the two-way feedback is also related to ENSO variability. The flavors of El Niño–La Niña with respect to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state tend to be well simulated when ENSO variability is larger in CGCMs. As a result, stronger ENSO variability leads to intensified interactive feedback between ENSO residuals and enhanced EIT in CGCMs.

The global chemistry-climate model CAM-Chem has been extended to incorporate an expanded bromine and iodine chemistry scheme that includes natural oceanic sources of very short-lived (VSL) halocarbons, gas-phase photochemistry and heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Ocean emissions of five VSL bromocarbons (CHBr3, CH2Br2, CH2BrCl, CHBrCl2, CHBr2Cl) and three VSL iodocarbons (CH2ICl, CH2IBr, CH2I2) have been parameterised by a biogenic chlorophyll-a (chl-a) dependent source in the tropical oceans (20° N–20° S). Constant oceanic fluxes with 2.5 coast-to-ocean emission ratios are separately imposed on four different latitudinal bands in the extratropics (20°–50° and above 50° in both hemispheres). Top-down emission estimates of bromocarbons have been derived using available measurements in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, while iodocarbons have been constrained with observations in the marine boundary layer (MBL). Emissions of CH3I are based on a previous inventory and the longer lived CH3Br is set to a surface mixing ratio boundary condition. The global oceanic emissions estimated for the most abundant VSL bromocarbons – 533 Gg yr−1 for CHBr3 and 67.3 Gg yr−1 for CH2Br2 – are within the range of previous estimates. Overall the latitudinal and vertical distributions of modelled bromocarbons are in good agreement with observations. Nevertheless, we identify some issues such as the reduced number of aircraft observations to validate models in the Southern Hemisphere, the overestimation of CH2Br2 in the upper troposphere – lower stratosphere and the underestimation of CH3I in the same region. Despite the difficulties involved in the global modelling of the shortest lived iodocarbons (CH2ICl, CH2IBr, CH2I2), modelled results are in good agreement with published observations in the MBL. Finally, sensitivity simulations show that knowledge of the diurnal emission cycle for these species, in particular for CH2I2, is key to assess their global source strength., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12 (3), ISSN:1680-7375, ISSN:1680-7367

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Desert dust plays an important role in the climate system through its impact on Earth¿s radiative budget and its role in the biogeochemical cycle as a source of iron in highnutrient- low-chlorophyll regions. A large degree of diversity exists between the many global models that simulate the dust cycle to estimate its impact on climate. We present the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations focusing on variables responsible for the uncertainties in estimating the direct radiative effect and the dust impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposi10 tion. Additional comparisons to Angstro¨m Exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentration are included to extend the assessment of model performance. These datasets form a benchmark data set which is proposed for model inspection and future dust model developments. In general, models perform better in simulating climatology of vertically averaged integrated parameters (AOD and AE) in dusty sites 15 than they do with total deposition and surface concentration. Almost all models overestimate deposition fluxes over Europe, the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and ice core data. Differences among the models arise when simulating deposition at remote sites with low fluxes over the Pacific and the Southern Atlantic Ocean. This study also highlights important differences in models ability to reproduce the deposition flux over Antarctica. The cause of this discrepancy could not be identified but different dust regimes at each site and issues with data quality should be considered. Models generally simulate better surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Likewise, they simulate better surface concentration at stations affected by Saharan dust than at stations affected by Asian dust. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions, however the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models also reproduce the dust transport across the Atlantic in terms of both AOD and AE; they simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year and limit the transport across the Atlantic to the summer months, yet overestimating the AOD and transporting too fine particles. However, most of the models do not reproduce the southward displacement of the dust cloud during the winter responsible of the transport of dust into South America. Based on the dependency of AOD on aerosol 5 burden and size distribution we use model data bias with respect to AOD and AE and infer on the over/under estimation of the dust emissions. According to this we suggest the emissions in the Sahara be between 792 and 2271 Tg/yr and the one in the Middle East between 376 and 526 Tg/yr., JRC.DDG.H.2-Climate change and air quality

In the lee of major mountain chains worldwide, diurnal physics of organized propagating convection project onto seasonal and climate time scales of the hydrologic cycle, but this phenomenon is not represented in conventional global climate models (GCMs). Analysis of an experimental version of the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) demonstrates that propagating orogenic nocturnal convection in the central U.S. warm season is, however, representable in GCMs that use the embedded explicit convection model approach [i.e., multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs)]. SP-CAM admits propagating organized convective systems in the lee of the Rockies during synoptic conditions similar to those that generate mesoscale convective systems in nature. The simulated convective systems exhibit spatial scales, phase speeds, and propagation speeds comparable to radar observations, and the genesis mechanism in the model agrees qualitatively with established conceptual models. Convective heating and condensate structures are examined on both resolved scales in SP-CAM, and coherently propagating cloud “metastructures” are shown to transcend individual cloud-resolving model arrays. In reconciling how this new mode of diurnal convective variability is admitted in SP-CAM despite the severe idealizations in the cloud-resolving model configuration, an updated discussion is presented of what physics may transcend the re-engineered scale interface in MMFs. The authors suggest that the improved diurnal propagation physics in SP-CAM are mediated by large-scale first-baroclinic gravity wave interactions with a prognostic organization life cycle, emphasizing the physical importance of preserving “memory” at the inner resolved scale.

Our understanding of the global black carbon (BC) cycle is essentially qualitative due to uncertainties in our knowledge of its properties. This work investigates two source of uncertainties in modelling black carbon: those due to the use of different schemes for BC ageing and its removal rate in the global Transport-Chemistry model TM5 and those due to the uncertainties in the definition and quantification of the observations, which propagate through to both the emission inventories, and the measurements used for the model evaluation. The schemes for the atmospheric processing of black carbon that have been tested with the model are (i) a simple approach considering BC as bulk aerosol and a simple treatment of the removal with fixed 70% of in-cloud black carbon concentrations scavenged by clouds and removed when rain is present and (ii) a more complete description of microphysical ageing within an aerosol dynamics model, where removal is coupled to the microphysical properties of the aerosol, which results in a global average of 40% in-cloud black carbon that is scavenged in clouds and subsequently removed by rain, thus resulting in a longer atmospheric lifetime. This difference is reflected in comparisons between both sets of modelled results and the measurements. Close to the sources, both anthropogenic and vegetation fire source regions, the model results do not differ significantly, indicating that the emissions are the prevailing mechanism determining the concentrations and the choice of the aerosol scheme does not influence the levels. In more remote areas such as oceanic and polar regions the differences can be orders of magnitude, due to the differences between the two schemes. The more complete description reproduces the seasonal trend of the black carbon observations in those areas, although not always the magnitude of the signal, while the more simplified approach underestimates black carbon concentrations by orders of magnitude. The sensitivity to wet scavenging has been tested by varying in-cloud and below-cloud removal. BC lifetime increases by 10% when large scale and convective scale precipitation removal efficiency are reduced by 30%, while the variation is very small when below-cloud scavenging is zero. Since the emission inventories are representative of elemental carbon-like substance, the model output should be compared to elemental carbon measurements and if known, the ratio of black carbon to elemental carbon mass should be taken into account when the model is compared with black carbon observations., JRC.H.2-Air and Climate

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Dutay, J. -C. Lacan, F. Jeandel, C. Lacan, Francois/B-8032-2009 38 COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH GOTTINGEN BIOGEOSCIENCES; The decoupled behaviour observed between Nd isotopic composition (Nd IC, also referred as epsilon(Nd)) and Nd concentration cycles has led to the notion of a 'Nd paradox'. While epsilon(Nd) behaves in a quasi-conservative way in the open ocean, leading to its broad use as a water-mass tracer, Nd concentration displays vertical profiles that increase with depth, together with a deep-water enrichment along the global thermohaline circulation. This non-conservative behaviour is typical of nutrients affected by scavenging in surface waters and remineralisation at depth. In addition, recent studies suggest the only way to reconcile both concentration and Nd IC oceanic budgets, is to invoke a 'Boundary Exchange' process (BE, defined as the co-occurrence of transfer of elements from the margin to the sea with removal of elements from the sea by Boundary Scavenging) as a source-sink term. However, these studies do not simulate the input/output fluxes of Nd to the ocean, and therefore prevents from crucial information that limits our understanding of Nd decoupling. To investigate this paradox on a global scale, this study uses for the first time a fully prognostic coupled dynamical/biogeochemical model with an explicit representation of Nd sources and sinks to simulate the Nd oceanic cycle. Sources considered include dissolved river fluxes, atmospheric dusts and margin sediment re-dissolution. Sinks are scavenging by settling particles. This model simulates the global features of the Nd oceanic cycle well, and produces a realistic distribution of Nd concentration (correct order of magnitude, increase with depth and along the conveyor belt, 65% of the simulated values fit in the +/- 10 pmol/kg envelop when compared to the data) and isotopic composition (inter-basin gradient, characterization of the main water-masses, more than 70% of the simulated values fit in the +/- 3 epsilon(Nd) envelop when compared to the data), though a slight overestimation of Nd concentrations in the deep Pacific Ocean may reveal an underestimation of the particle fields by the biogeochemical model. Our results indicate 1) vertical cycling (scavenging/remineralisation) is absolutely necessary to simulate both concentration and epsilon(Nd), and 2) BE is the dominant Nd source to the ocean. The estimated BE flux (1.1x10(10) g(Nd)/yr) is much higher than both dissolved river discharge (2.6x10(8) g(Nd)/yr) and atmospheric inputs (1.0x10(8) g(Nd)/yr) that both play negligible role in the water column but are necessary to reconcile Nd IC in surface and subsurface waters. This leads to a new calculated residence time of 360 yrs for Nd in the ocean. The BE flux requires the dissolution of 3 to 5% of the annual flux of continental weathering deposited via the solid river discharge to the continental margin.

A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving threedimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

We present the submodels DRYDEP and SEDI for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). Gas phase and aerosol dry deposition are calculated within DRYDEP, whereas SEDI deals with aerosol particle sedimentation. Dry deposition velocities depend on the near-surface turbulence and the physical and chemical properties of the surface cover (e.g. the roughness length, soil pH or leaf stomatal exchange). The dry deposition algorithm used in DRYDEP is based on the big leaf approach and is described in detail within this Technical Note. The sedimentation submodel SEDI contains two sedimentation schemes: a simple upwind zeroth order scheme and a first order approach.

In this study the role of atmospheric boundary layer schemes in climate models is investigated. Including a boundary layer scheme in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) produces only minor differences in the estimated global distribution of sensible and latent heat fluxes over land (upto about 15% of the net radiation at the surface). However, neglecting of boundary layer processes, such as the development of a well-mixed layer over land or the impact of stability on the exchange coefficient in the surface layer, leads to erroneous surface temperatures, especially in convective conditions with low wind speeds. As these conditions occur frequently, introducing a boundary layer scheme in an EMIC gives reductions in June-July-August averaged surface temperature of 1-2 °C in wet areas, to 5-7 °C in desert areas. Even a relatively simple boundary layer scheme provides reasonable estimates of the surface fluxes and surface temperatures. Detailed schemes that solve explicitly the turbulent fluxes within the boundary layer are only required when vertical profiles of potential temperature are needed.

A sulfur cycle model is coupled to a global chemistry-climate model. The simulated surface sulfate concentrations are generally within a factor of 2 of observed concentrations, and display a realistic seasonality for most background locations. However, the model tends to underestimate sulfate and overestimate surface SO 2 at relatively polluted locations. A possible explanation for this is that additional oxidation reactions not considered in the model, may be important. Calculated tropospheric sulfate column abundances exceed those of previous studies, which is predominantly associated with a less efficient nucleation scavenging in wet convective updrafts. Through the simultaneous calculation of the sulfur cycle and tropospheric photochemistry, simulated H 2 O 2 and SO 2 concentrations are strongly linked, especially in polluted areas. The coupled model simulates a stronger oxidant limitation and, consequently, a smaller contribution to sulfate formation by H 2 O 2 oxidation of SO 2 when compared to sulfur cycle models that use monthly averaged oxidant distributions as input. In the polluted NH, the differences in calculated sulfate columns are largest in winter and relatively small in summer. Therefore, the coupling between the sulfur cycle and the oxidant chemistry is expected to have a minor impact on the calculation of the indirect and direct radiative forcing by sulfate. An empirical relation between sulfate concentration and cloud drop number concentration, derived from cloud measurements at Grean Dun Fell (UK), is applied to the simulated cloud and sulfate fields to derive distributions of effective could drop radii. Additionally, a relation between wind speed and cloud drop number concentration is applied over marine regions to account for the effect of seasalt aerosol on cloud formation when sulfate concentrations are relatively low. Calculated droplet radii are systematically underestimated by about 10–20% in the NH compared to satellite derived values, but they agree relatively well in the SH. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1998.t01-2-00002.x

To assess the extent to which atmospheric low-frequency variability can be ascribed to internal dynamical causes, two extended runs (1200 winter seasons) of a three level quasi-geostrophic model have been carried out. In the first experiment the model was forced by an average forcing field computed from nine winter seasons; in the second experiment we used a periodically variable forcing in order to simulate a seasonal cycle. The analysis has been focused on the leading Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns, namely the Pacific North American (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns, and on blocking, both in the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The NAO and PNA patterns are realistically simulated by the model; the main difference with observations is a westward shift of the centres of action of the NAO. Related to this, the region of maximum frequency of Atlantic blocking is shifted from the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic to its central part. Apart from this shift, the statistics of blocking frequency and duration compare favourably with their observed counterparts. In particular, the model exhibits a level of interannual and interdecadal variability in blocking frequency which is (at least) as large as the observed one, despite the absence of any variability in the atmospheric energy sources and boundary conditions on such time scales.

International audience; A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH 4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dy-namique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion setup (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr −1 at the global scale, representing 5 % of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr −1 in North America to 7 Tg yr −1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48 %, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150 % of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling , especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. Future inversions should include more accurately prescribed observation covariances matrices in order to limit Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 9918 R. Locatelli et al.: Transport model errors in methane inversions the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane fluxes.

REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA) and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB). Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated inter-model diversity of the global aerosol burden, and consequently global optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols) and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g., the split between deposition pathways) and to a lesser extent by the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor) emissions. The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversities for these two species were caused by a few outliers. The experiment also showed that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences. These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters) in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies.

Measurements made during the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) in 1998, indicate likely regional atmospheric effects of sulphate aerosol over India including the potential for cloud processing of SO 2 to sulphate. Sulphate aerosol production in clouds was examined for cloud characteristics and pollutant concentrations typical of the Indian region, to assess the contribution of different mechanisms to sulphate formation. A simple model was formulated incorporating gas-liquid equilibria, gas-phase mass transfer, SO 2 oxidation in the gas phase by OH· radicals and in the aqueous phase by H 2 O 2 , O 3 and O 2 catalysed by Fe 3+ and Mn 2+ in a cloud with uniformly sized drops. Sulphate formation was simulated in St/Sc, Cu and Cb clouds using an initial pH of 6.5, likely to occur in this region, for cloud drop diameters of 10, 50 and 100 μm. The clouds were assumed to have nucleated on ammonium sulphate aerosols and contained reported background concentrations of these ions in clean rainwater over the Indian ocean. The simulations produced final cloud pHs of 4.5–5 and final sulphate concentrations of 25–90 μM, in agreement with the range of reported preliminary measurements. An examination of mass transfer effects showed that the characteristic diffusion times of H 2 O 2 and SO 2 were lower by a factor of 10 or more than the respective reaction times, indicating that mass transfer effects would not limit the rate of S VI formation under likely atmospheric conditions. Sulphate formation in St/Sc clouds was shown to likely be SO 2 limited in July and H 2 O 2 limited in January. In all cases, the gas phase reaction and the O 2 reaction catalysed by Mn 2+ and Fe 3+ contributed less than 1% to the S VI produced. In St/Sc and Cu clouds, 85–96% of the S VI was from the H 2 O 2 reaction. In Cb clouds about 60–75% of the S VI was from the H 2 O 2 reaction and 25–41% from the O 3 reaction. In Cb clouds, the short residence and the persistence of alkaline conditions in the earlier part of the cloud cycle, enhance the contribution of the O 3 reaction to the greatest extent. If alkaline conditions were to persist throughout the cloud cycle (from cation chemistry not simulated in this model), the contribution of the O 3 reaction to S VI could be further enhanced. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2001.01015.x

This work is motivated by the identification of the land-atmosphere interactions as one of the key sources of uncertainty in climate change simulations. It documents new developments in related processes, namely, boundary layer/convection/clouds parameterizations and land surface parameterization in the Earth System Model of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL). Simulations forced by prescribed oceanic conditions are produced with different combinations of atmospheric and land surface parameterizations. They are used to explore the sensitivity to the atmospheric physics and/or soil physics of major biases in the near surface variables over continents, the energy and moisture coupling established at the soil/atmosphere interface in not too wet (energy limited) and not too dry (moisture limited) soil moisture regions also known as transition or "hot-spot" regions, the river runoff at the outlet of major rivers. The package implemented in the IPSL-Climate Model for the Phase 6 of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) allows us to reduce several biases in the surface albedo, the snow cover, and the continental surface air temperature in summer as well as in the temperature profile in the surface layer of the polar regions. The interactions between soil moisture and atmosphere in hotspot regions are in better agreement with the observations. Rainfall is also significantly improved in volume and seasonality in several major river basins leading to an overall improvement in river discharge. However, the lack of consideration of floodplains and human influences in the model, for example, dams and irrigation, impacts the realism of simulated discharge.

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

We present an evaluation of sources, sinks and turbulent transport of nitrogen oxides, ozone and volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the boundary layer over French Guyana and Suriname during the October 2005 GABRIEL campaign by simulating observations with a single-column chemistry and climate model (SCM) along a zonal transect. Simulated concentrations of O3 and NO as well as NO2 photolysis rates over the forest agree well with observations when a small soil-biogenic NO emission flux was applied. This suggests that the photochemical conditions observed during GABRIEL reflect a pristine tropical low-NOx regime. The SCM uses a compensation point approach to simulate nocturnal deposition and daytime emissions of acetone and methanol and produces daytime boundary layer mixing ratios in reasonable agreement with observations. The area average isoprene emission flux, inferred from the observed isoprene mixing ratios and boundary layer height, is about half the flux simulated with commonly applied emission algorithms. The SCM nevertheless simulates too high isoprene mixing ratios, whereas hydroxyl concentrations are strongly underestimated compared to observations, which can at least partly explain the discrepancy. Furthermore, the model substantially overestimates the isoprene oxidation products methlyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR) partly due to a simulated nocturnal increase due to isoprene oxidation. This increase is most prominent in the residual layer whereas in the nocturnal inversion layer we simulate a decrease in MVK and MACR mixing ratios, assuming efficient removal of MVK and MACR. Entrainment of residual layer air masses, which are enhanced in MVK and MACR and other isoprene oxidation products, into the growing boundary layer poses an additional sink for OH which is thus not available for isoprene oxidation. Based on these findings, we suggest pursuing measurements of the tropical residual layer chemistry with a focus on the nocturnal depletion of isoprene and its oxidation products., JRC.H.2-Climate change

International audience; Simulation results of global aerosol models have been assembled in the framework of the AeroCom intercomparison exercise. In this paper, we analyze the life cycles of dust, sea salt, sulfate, black carbon and particulate organic matter as simulated by sixteen global aerosol models. The differences among the results (model diversities) for sources and sinks, burdens, particle sizes, water uptakes, and spatial dispersals have been established. These diversities have large consequences for the calculated radiative forcing and the aerosol concentrations at the surface. Processes and parameters are identified which deserve further research. The AeroCom all-models-average emissions are dominated by the mass of sea salt (SS), followed by dust (DU), sulfate (SO4), particulate organic matter (POM), and finally black carbon (BC). Interactive parameterizations of the emissions and contrasting particles sizes of SS and DU lead generally to higher diversities of these species, and for total aerosol. The lower diversity of the emissions of the fine aerosols, BC, POM, and SO4, is due to the use of similar emission inventories, and does therefore not necessarily indicate a better understanding of their sources. The diversity of SO4-sources is mainly caused by the disagreement on depositional loss of precursor gases and on chemical production. The diversities of the emissions are passed on to the burdens, but the latter are also strongly affected by the model-specific treatments of transport and aerosol processes. The burdens of dry masses decrease from largest to smallest: DU, SS, SO4, POM, and BC. The all-models-average residence time is shortest for SS with about half a day, followed by SO4 and DU with four days, and POM and BC with six and seven days, respectively. The wet deposition rate is controlled by the solubility and increases from DU, BC, POM to SO4 and SS. It is the dominant sink for SO4, BC, and POM, and contributes about one third to the total removal of SS and DU species. For SS and DU we find high diversities for the removal rate coefficients and deposition pathways. Models do neither agree on the split between wet and dry deposition, nor on that between sedimentation and other dry deposition processes. We diagnose an extremely high diversity for the uptake of ambient water vapor that influences the particle size and thus the sink rate coefficients. Furthermore, we find little agreement among the model results for the partitioning of wet removal into scavenging by convective and stratiform rain. Large differences exist for aerosol dispersal both in the vertical and in the horizontal direction. In some models, a minimum of total aerosol concentration is simulated at the surface. Aerosol dispersal is most pronounced for SO4 and BC and lowest for SS. Diversities are higher for meridional than for vertical dispersal, they are similar for the individual species and highest for SS and DU. For these two components we do not find a correlation between vertical and meridional aerosol dispersal. In addition the degree of dispersals of SS and DU is not related to their residence times. SO4, BC, and POM, however, show increased meridional dispersal in models with larger vertical dispersal, and dispersal is larger for longer simulated residence times.