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Transformers are one of the most strategic components in balancing the voltage levels and hence a high priority is given to their performance [1]. It is established that, insulation technology plays a critical role in judging the performance and service life in oil filled apparatus [2]. Performance of the insulation system depends mainly on the deterioration behavior of insulation oil and paper. The mechanisms that are responsible for premature aging of oil/paper insulation are almost the same in all the oil filled apparatus. Yet, there will be a significant difference in the intensity of the aging mechanisms in different apparatus. This intensity is attributable to rating, design, and duration of operation for different machines. The detailed discussions on these mechanisms are presented in the subsequent sections of this paper. However, aging of service insulants is unavoidable and is to be maintained at a lower rate or arrested to the greatest possible extent, such that, catastrophic failures and unscheduled outages may be mitigated [3]. Normally, utilities follow scheduled condition monitoring activities to avoid the consequences of premature aging. Hence, knowledge on these in-service condition monitoring activities will be helpful in understanding the exact deterioration rate of the insulation system. Real time in-service experience of several transformer fleets that belong to United Kingdom utilities are reported in [4]. An early degradation of insulation is noticed through increase in acidity and furan concentration in oil for several transformers in the fleet. Authors investigated this early degradation in different perspectives including loading conditions, manufacturers, and oil chemistry changes. It is inferred that changes in oil chemistry is an important attribute for early degradation and hence utilities are advised to adopt different asset management strategies for affected and unaffected transformers in a fleet. Recently, failure rate data of service aged transformer fleets of an Australian utility were analyzed to establish the relationship between aging and different failure types [5]. It is noticed that degradation of the insulation system will be rapid after 20 years of service aging thus entailing the frequent condition monitoring activities after 20 years to identify premature aging failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With low voltage (LV) distribution networks increasingly being re-purposed beyond their original design specifications to accommodate low carbon technologies, the ability to accurately calculate their actual spare capacity is critical. Traditionally, within the Great Britain (GB) power system, there has been limited monitoring of LV distribution networks, making this difficult. This paper proposes a method for estimating spare capacity of unmonitored LV networks using demand data from customer Smart Meters. In particular, the proposed method infers existing LV network capacity, as well as losses, across scenarios where only a limited number of customers have Smart Meters installed. Typical daily load profiles across customers with Smart Meters are learned using a Dirichlet sampled Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Learned profiles are then applied to all unmetered customers to estimate network parameters. Method accuracy is assessed by comparing estimations with simulated, fully observed, LV network models. The method is also compared to benchmark models for establishing unobserved demand profiles. Overall, results in the paper show that the proposed method outperforms benchmark models in terms of accurately assessing substation headroom, particularly in scenarios where only 10–50% of customers have Smart Meters installed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses the modeling and the simulation of the limiters of proportional integral (PI) controllers included in voltage-sourced converters. Seven PI controller models are considered. These include windup and anti-windup limiters, back calculation with different gains and delayed feedback and the model recommended by the IEEE standard 421.5-2016. The dynamic behavior and numerical issues arising for each PI implementation are thoroughly compared by means of a detailed all-island dynamic model of the Irish system including the HVDC East–West Interconnector and a simplified dynamic model of the Great Britain system; and the Nordic system with inclusion of a STATCOM device. Recommendations on the computer-based implementation of each model are provided in the concluding remarks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between candidates' position on a ballot paper and vote rank is explored in the case of 5000 candidates for the UK 2010 local government elections in the Greater London area. This design study uses hierarchical spatially arranged graphics to represent two locations that affect candidates at very different scales: the geographical areas for which they seek election and the spatial location of their names on the ballot paper. This approach allows the effect of position bias to be assessed; that is, the degree to which the position of a candidate's name on the ballot paper influences the number of votes received by the candidate, and whether this varies geographically. Results show that position bias was significant enough to influence rank order of candidates, and in the case of many marginal electoral wards, to influence who was elected to government. Position bias was observed most strongly for Liberal Democrat candidates but present for all major political parties. Visual analysis of classification of candidate names by ethnicity suggests that this too had an effect on votes received by candidates, in some cases overcoming alphabetic name bias. The results found contradict some earlier research suggesting that alphabetic name bias was not sufficiently significant to affect electoral outcome and add new evidence for the geographic and ethnicity influences on voting behaviour. The visual approach proposed here can be applied to a wider range of electoral data and the patterns identified and hypotheses derived from them could have significant implications for the design of ballot papers and the conduct of fair elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduced inertia levels in low-carbon power grids necessitate explicit constraints to limit frequency’s nadir and rate of change during scheduling. This can result in significant curtailment of renewable energy due to the minimum generation of thermal plants that are needed to provide frequency response (FR) and inertia. Additional consideration of fast FR, a dynamically reduced largest loss and under frequency load shedding (UFLS) allows frequency security to be achieved more cost effectively. This paper derives a novel constraint from the swing equation to contain the frequency nadir using all of these services. The expected cost of UFLS is found probabilistically to facilitate its comparison to the other frequency services. We demonstrate that this constraint can be accurately and conservatively approximated for moderate UFLS levels with a second order cone (SOC), resulting in highly tractable convex problems. Case studies performed on a Great Britain 2030 system demonstrate that UFLS as an option to contain single plant outages can reduce annual operational costs by up to $\pounds $ 559 m, 52% of frequency security costs. The sensitivity of this value to wind penetration, abundance of alternative frequency services, UFLS amount and cost is explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The foreseen development of large-scale Offshore Windfarms (OWFs) further from the shore dictates that the OWF transmission system must be optimally designed based on Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR) in order to fully utilize the intermittent nature of the wind and to keep the offshore wind cost-competitive. In this paper, a comprehensive, DTR-based, two-stage stochastic model is presented, which has been developed for investment decision support for OWF size and HVAC transmission systems. Complex DTR models for all the critical HV components are made fit for the mixed-integer linear programming problem, while accounting for the stochasticity in wind generation and component availability. The main decisions incorporate the discrete size of OWFs, HV subsea export cable cross-sections and ratings for transformers and shunt reactors. For validation, an actual testcase OWF off the east coast of U.K. has been used. Results indicate that DTR-based iterative design of OWF and its transmission components can significantly improve the business case, even though transmission efficiency and energy delivered are not maximum for the optimal design [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Segmenting anatomical structures in medical images has been successfully addressed with deep learning methods for a range of applications. However, this success is heavily dependent on the quality of the image that is being segmented. A commonly neglected point in the medical image analysis community is the vast amount of clinical images that have severe image artefacts due to organ motion, movement of the patient and/or image acquisition related issues. In this paper, we discuss the implications of image motion artefacts on cardiac MR segmentation and compare a variety of approaches for jointly correcting for artefacts and segmenting the cardiac cavity. The method is based on our recently developed joint artefact detection and reconstruction method, which reconstructs high quality MR images from k-space using a joint loss function and essentially converts the artefact correction task to an under-sampled image reconstruction task by enforcing a data consistency term. In this paper, we propose to use a segmentation network coupled with this in an end-to-end framework. Our training optimises three different tasks: 1) image artefact detection, 2) artefact correction and 3) image segmentation. We train the reconstruction network to automatically correct for motion-related artefacts using synthetically corrupted cardiac MR k-space data and uncorrected reconstructed images. Using a test set of 500 2D+time cine MR acquisitions from the UK Biobank data set, we achieve demonstrably good image quality and high segmentation accuracy in the presence of synthetic motion artefacts. We showcase better performance compared to various image correction architectures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DC technology has gained considerable interest in the medium voltage applications due to the benefits over the AC counterpart. However, to utilize the full capacity of this development, the selection of a suitable power electronic converter topology is a key aspect. From the pool of voltage source converters (VSC's), it is unclear which topology is suitable for multi-megawatt applications at medium voltage dc (MVdc) levels. To address this, the paper proposes a selection guideline based on reliability and optimum redundancy levels of VSCs for MVdc applications. This will be combined with other functional factors such as operational efficiency and return-on-investment. Three candidate multi-level topologies namely three-level neutral point clamped converter (3L-NPC), modular multi-level converter (MMC) and cascaded 3L-NPC (which is being used for the first MVdc link in the U.K.) have been evaluated over two-level-VSC from $\pm$ 10 kV to $\pm$ 50 kV. Results show that with the increase of MVdc voltage level MMC shows better performance whereas at low MVdc voltage levels 3L-NPC is the prominent topology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Part I of this paper we have introduced the closed-form conditions for guaranteeing regional frequency stability in a power system. Here we propose a methodology to represent these conditions in the form of linear constraints and demonstrate their applicability by implementing them in a generation-scheduling model. This model simultaneously optimises energy production and ancillary services for maintaining frequency stability in the event of a generation outage, by solving a frequency-secured Stochastic Unit Commitment (SUC). We consider the Great Britain system, characterised by two regions that create a non-uniform distribution of inertia: England in the South, where most of the load is located, and Scotland in the North, containing significant wind resources. Through several case studies, it is shown that inertia and frequency response cannot be considered as system-wide magnitudes in power systems that exhibit inter-area oscillations in frequency, as their location in a particular region is key to guarantee stability. In addition, securing against a medium-sized loss in the low-inertia region proves to cause significant wind curtailment, which could be alleviated through reinforced transmission corridors. In this context, the proposed constraints allow to find the optimal volume of ancillary services to be procured in each region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phase imbalance in the U.K. and European low-voltage (415 V, LV) distribution networks causes additional energy losses. A key barrier against understanding the imbalance-induced energy losses is the absence of high-resolution time-series data for LV networks. It remains a challenge to estimate imbalance-induced energy losses in LV networks that only have the yearly average currents of the three phases. To address this insufficient data challenge, this paper proposes a new customized statistical approach, named as the clustering, classification, and range estimation (CCRE) approach. It finds a match between the network with only the yearly average phase currents (the data-scarce network) and a cluster of networks with time series of phase current data (data-rich networks). Then, CCRE performs a range estimation of the imbalance-induced energy loss for the cluster of data-rich networks that resemble the data-scarce network. Chebyshev's inequality is applied to narrow down this range, which represents the confidence interval of the imbalance-induced energy loss for the data-scarce network. Case studies reveal that, given such a few data from the data-scarce networks, more than 80% of these networks are classified to the correct clusters and the confidence of the imbalance-induced energy loss estimation is 89%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically explores the organizational processes at the onset of disruptions and the factors that determine different configurations of responses. It examines how processes of response, both before and in the aftermath of a disruption, support the building and development of organizational resilience. Using case study data from three U.K. based organizations, this paper makes the following three contributions. First, it identifies the common elements involved in decision making at the onset of a disruption, and explains the iterative stages and processes that led to the development of resilience. It explains the criticality and relationships between the elements of detection, activation, and response. Second, this paper explains why responses vary from one situation to another, by identifying two dimensions that determine the configurations of organizational resilience, namely Preparedness and Adaption. Third, this paper presents the resilience configurations matrix that gives rise to and establishes four distinct types of organizational configurations, which are Process Based, Resourceful, At High Risk, and Resilience Focused. This paper concludes by discussing the implications for theory and practice of resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The undergoing transition from conventional to converter-interfaced renewable generation leads to significant challenges in maintaining frequency stability due to declining system inertia. In this paper, a novel control framework for Synthetic Inertia (SI) provision from Wind Turbines (WTs) is proposed, which eliminates the secondary frequency dip and allows the dynamics of SI from WTs to be analytically integrated into the system frequency dynamics. Furthermore, analytical system frequency constraints with SI provision from WTs are developed and incorporated into a stochastic system scheduling model, which enables the provision of SI from WTs to be dynamically optimized on a system level. Several case studies are carried out on a Great Britain 2030 power system with different penetration levels of wind generation and inclusion of frequency response requirements in order to assess the performance of the proposed model and analyze the influence of the improved SI control scheme on the potential secondary frequency dip. The results demonstrate that the inclusion of SI provision from WTs into Unit Commitment (UC) can drastically impact the overall system costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an efficient and accurate imaging algorithm is presented for Ground-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-SAR) or other radar systems that could be formed by a physical or synthetic linear aperture. The imaging algorithm is based on the fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) for the azimuth compression. A mathematical framework is derived according to the projection of a sample reflectivity image onto the pseudopolar coordinate, and its implementation was presented. With the data acquisition geometry and the pseudopolar imaging coordinate, the phase of a point target can be expressed as a quadratic phase exponential. It makes that only 1-D FrFT is needed for the azimuth compression of the time-domain backscatter data for the GB-SAR imaging problem. By further research, the optimal transformation order that represents the spatial frequency changes by the FrFT was given subsequently. Taking advantage of this optimal representation, the proposed approach avoids the large calculation that occurs in the time-domain back projection (TDBP). Comparing to the far-field pseudopolar format algorithm (FPFA), the accuracy of the proposed algorithm is much improved. Meanwhile, the proposed approach holds almost the same computational cost and complexity as the FPFA. The proposed approach keeps the advantages of the imaging quality of the TDBP and the computational cost of the FPFA that are two important aspects of the GB-SAR applications. Both the numerical simulation and the field GB-SAR experiment show that the algorithm is more suitable for the high-precision GB-SAR imaging, especially for the near field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduced level of system inertia in low-carbon power grids increases the need for alternative frequency services. However, simultaneously optimizing the provision of these services in the scheduling process, subject to significant uncertainty, is a complex task given the challenge of linking the steady-state optimization with frequency dynamics. This paper proposes a novel frequency-constrained stochastic unit commitment model which, for the first time, co-optimizes energy production along with the provision of synchronized and synthetic inertia, enhanced frequency response, primary frequency response and a dynamically-reduced largest power infeed. The contribution of load damping is modeled through a linear inner approximation. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through several case studies for Great Britain's 2030 power system, which highlight the synergies and conflicts among alternative frequency services, as well as the significant economic savings and carbon reduction achieved by simultaneously optimizing all these services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a novel particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed in order to improve the accuracy of traditional clustering approaches with applications in analyzing real-time patient attendance data from an accident & emergency (A&E) department in a local U.K. hospital. In the proposed randomly occurring distributedly delayed PSO (RODDPSO) algorithm, the evolutionary state is determined by evaluating the evolutionary factor in each iteration, based on whether the velocity updating model switches from one mode to another. With the purpose of reducing the possibility of getting trapped in the local optima and also expanding the search space, randomly occurring time-delays that reflect the history of previous personal best and global best particles are introduced in the velocity updating model in a distributed manner. Eight well-known benchmark functions are employed to evaluate the proposed RODDPSO algorithm which is shown via extensive comparisons to outperform some currently popular PSO algorithms. To further illustrate the application potential, the RODDPSO algorithm is successfully exploited in the patient clustering problem for data analysis with respect to a local A&E department in West London. Experiment results demonstrate that the RODDPSO-based clustering method is superior over two other well-known clustering algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation voltage reduction (CVR) has been traditionally applied adopting moderate settings at primary substations and when distributed generation was uncommon. However, as new infrastructure is deployed across European-style medium voltage (MV) and low voltage (LV) networks, driven by increasing photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, the opportunity arises to develop more advanced CVR schemes. This paper proposes a centralized, three-phase AC optimal power flow (OPF)-based CVR scheme that, using monitoring, on-load tap changers and capacitors across MV and LV, actively manages voltages to minimize energy consumption, even with high PV penetration, while considering MV–LV constraints. To tackle scalability issues brought by discrete variables, a two-stage approach is proposed to solve the OPF as a non-linear programming problem (relaxing integer variables). A process that continuously checks customer voltages is adopted to trigger the optimization only when needed. Moreover, CVR benefits are not only quantified at a network level but also for customers, providing useful insights to policy makers. The proposed control is assessed using a realistic, unbalanced U.K. residential MV–LV network (2,400+ customers) with high PV penetration, and 1-min resolution time-varying profiles and load models. Results demonstrate that the proposed control effectively coordinates voltage regulation in MV and LV levels throughout the day, minimizing energy imports for all customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of combined sewer overflow (CSO) operation in urban environments presents a challenging task for water utilities. The operation of CSOs (most often in heavy rainfall conditions) prevents houses and businesses from flooding. However, sometimes, CSOs do not operate as they should, potentially bringing environmental pollution risks. Therefore, CSOs should be appropriately managed by water utilities, highlighting the need for adapted decision support systems. This paper proposes an automated CSO predictive model construction methodology using field monitoring data, as a substitute for the commonly established hydrological-hydraulic modeling approach for time-series prediction of CSO statuses. It is a systematic methodology factoring in all monitored field variables to construct time-series dependencies for CSO statuses. The model construction process is largely automated with little human intervention, and the pertinent variables together with their associated time lags for every CSO are holistically and automatically generated. A fast least absolute shrinkage and selection operator solution generating scheme is proposed to expedite the model construction process, where matrix inversions are effectively eliminated. The whole algorithm works in a stepwise manner, invoking either an incremental or decremental movement for including or excluding one model regressor into, or from, the predictive model at every step. The computational complexity is thereby analyzed with the pseudo code provided. Actual experimental results from both single-step ahead (i.e., 15 min) and multistep ahead predictions are finally produced and analyzed on a U.K. pilot area with various types of monitoring data made available, demonstrating the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study which examined the impact of the public funding of basic research, extending previous work done at the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex, East Sussex in Great Britain. Methodology; Basic research as a source of public information; Creation by basic researchers of new instrumentation.

???This paper presents a critical analysis of ultrawideband (UWB) and considers the turbulent journey it has had from the Federal Communications Commission?€™s bandwidth allocation in 2002 to today. It analyzes the standards, the standoffs, and the stalemate in standardization activities and investigates the past and present research and commercial activities in realizing the UWB dream. In this paper, statistical evidence is presented to depict UWB?€™s changing fortunes and is utilized as an indicator of future prominence. This paper reviews some of the opinions and remarks from commentators and analyzes predictions that were made. Finally, it presents possible ways forward to reignite the high-data-rate UWB standardization pursuit. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cellular network deployment with three sectors per site and a frequency reuse factor of one is key to supporting high data rate applications in LTE Advanced Networks. However, such configurations result in increased inter-cell interference. In this paper we model the effects of inter-cell interference on an LTE-Advanced network at two carrier frequencies. We consider two urban environments and four cell ranges. The effects of inter-cell interference are separated into inter-site interference and inter-sector interference. A site-specific 3D ray-tracing tool is used to model the communication channel between the base stations (serving and interfering links) and the user equipment terminals. The inter-site interference is first modelled in terms of its dominant interference proportion and then validated using previously reported field measurements recorded in London (U.K.). Secondly, the inter-site and inter-sector interference components are modelled as a function of user equipment relative position from the serving base stations. Our approach is compatible with the standardized ITU-R model and our proposal can easily be added to these international models. Our model requires no system layout for the interferers and reduces the required channel generation time by a factor of 12 compared with the system layout method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Great Britain power system, reduced system inertia (particularly during low demand conditions) and larger possible infeed loss would make grid frequency regulation extremely challenging in future. Traditional primary frequency response could be insufficient to limit the frequency variation within acceptable range. This paper shows that thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) (domestic refrigerators) can be controlled without real-time communication and in a nondisruptive way to collectively enhance the network frequency response. The aggregated power consumption of TCLs, distributed across the system, could be controlled as a ‘linear’ function of the locally measured frequency and its rate of change. Alternatively, their aggregated consumption could be made to follow a ‘pre-set’ power profile depending on the estimated infeed loss. A novel technique for accurate estimation of infeed loss and consequent postfault TCL power reduction is also proposed. The effectiveness of the two TCL control strategies is compared for primary and secondary frequency response through a case study on a 36 busbar reduced equivalent of the Great Britain power system. The effect of spatial variation of transient frequencies and the time delays in frequency measurement and filtering are considered to show how the TCLs can realistically provide rapid frequency response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic flood mapping offers flood managers, decision makers, insurance agencies, and humanitarian relief organizations a useful characterization of uncertainty in flood mapping delineation. Probabilistic flood maps are also of high interest for data assimilation into numerical models. The direct assimilation of probabilistic flood maps into hydrodynamic models would be beneficial because it would eliminate the intermediate step of having to extract water levels first. This paper introduces a probabilistic flood mapping procedure based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. Given a SAR image of backscatter values, we construct a total histogram of backscatter values and decompose this histogram into probability distribution functions of backscatter values associated with flooded (open water) and non-flooded pixels, respectively. These distributions are then used to estimate, for each pixel, its probability of being flooded. The new approach improves on binary SAR-based flood mapping procedures, which do not inform on the uncertainty in the pixel state. The proposed approach is tested using four SAR images from two floodplains, i.e., the Severn River (U.K.) and the Red River (U.S.). In all four test cases, reliability diagrams, with error values ranging from 0.04 to 0.23, indicate a good agreement between the SAR-derived probabilistic flood map and an independently available validation map, which is obtained from aerial photography. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper proposes a novel multi-resolution clustering (MRC) method that for the first time classifies end customers directly from massive, volatile and uncertain smart metering data. It will firstly extract spectral features of load profiles by multi-resolution analysis (MRA), and then cluster and classify these features in the spectral-domain instead of time-domain. The key advantage is that the proposed method will allow a dynamic load profiling to be flexibly re-constructed from each spectral level. MRC addresses three key limitations in time-series based load profiling: i) large sample size: sample size is reduced by a novel two-stage clustering, which firstly clusters each customers' massive daily profiles into several Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) and then clusters all GMMs; ii) volatility: it avoids the interferences between different load features (e.g. magnitude, overall trend, spikes) by decomposing them onto different resolution levels, and then clustering separately; iii) uncertainties: as the GMM can give a probabilistic cluster membership instead of a deterministic one, an additive classification model based on the posterior probability is proposed to reflect the uncertainty between days. The proposed method is implemented on 6369 smart metered customers from Ireland, and compared with the load profiles used by the U.K. industry and traditional K-means clustering. The results show that the developed MRC outperformed the traditional methods in its ability in profiling load for big, volatile and uncertain smart metering data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The design of any robotic system requires input from engineers from a variety of technical fields. This paper describes a project-based module, Biologically-Inspired Robotics, that is offered to Electronics and Computer Science students at the University of Southampton, U.K. The overall objective of the module is for student groups to investigate the interface between robotics and biology and develop a system (either hardware or software) to illustrate biological principles. This paper discusses the details of the implementation and delivery of the module, together with evaluation feedback. A number of the robotic systems developed by project groups are presented in order to illustrate the diversity and quality of the systems that have been developed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic efficiency of different long-run network pricing models. The aim is to provide a quantifiable efficiency measure that will inform regulators, network operators, and network users when an alternative pricing model is contemplated. The efficiency measure is derived from the long-term network development costs that flow from a dynamic interaction between network pricing and planning; that is the response of network users to differing charging models, the consequential network investment, and new financial incentives that follow reinforcement of the network. To illustrate the approach, the framework has been used to assess the relative efficiency of three broad class of distribution pricing models in a study undertaken for the Great Britain (GB)'s regulator for gas and electricity markets in England, Wales, and Scotland-Ofgem. The study contemplated three pricing models that are used in practice. The efficiency assessment in the Ofgem study was conducted on a pseudo distribution reference network. On the assumption that the results from the reference network could be scaled up to the national level, then the assessment suggests that by moving from the present DRM model to the more economic LRIC approach, GB distribution network operators could save in the region of £200 m over the next 20 years in their network investment costs. This paper draws heavily on the project undertaken for Ofgem, but any views expressed are solely those of the authors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA) method for the unavailability of supply of gas networks. The method is based on the automatic generation of fault trees, which estimate the probability of disruption of the gas delivery from terminals/storages to the demand nodes. Moreover, it allows probabilistic analyses of the availability of gas supply to individual demand nodes and to the overall gas network. To assess the importance of each network component, the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth importance measures are utilized. The developed method can identify weakness in the gas network and can guide expansion planning and maintenance scheduling activities. Furthermore, the developed framework is enriched by steady-state analysis of the gas network operations performed using a physical flow/pressure model. The impact of a component failure on the gas supply interruption at different demand nodes is assessed by the physical model in retrospective to the FTA results. The framework is exemplified with reference to the reduced gas network of Great Britain. The results provide insights to support a robust reliability assessment of the gas network. Moreover, the probability mapping of the most important components in the gas network informs optimal strategies for maintenance scheduling as well for prioritizing improvements of the gas network aimed at significant risk reduction. Remarkably, the failure of components identified as most important according to the FTA importance measures may not have significant effects on the gas supply. A discussion on the range of applicability and limitations of the two methodologies is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using their fast power reduction capabilities, the induction motor variable speed drives can successfully participate in the power system primary frequency control. A new control strategy for fast frequency support from the diode front-end induction motor variable speed drive is presented in this paper. By this, practical restrictions are considered. In this context, an existing conventional scheme presented in literature is firstly modified by deploying an estimated motor's power losses for a more exactly control design. Next, a novel control scheme is proposed. It attains the fastest frequency support from the drive and simultaneously restricts its minimum power consumption to a given positive value to prevent regeneration mode during the frequency support process. The frequency of applied voltage to the motor is adjusted through a proportional-integrator compensator with deviation of the drive's consumption power from its reference power as input. The reference power is synthesized by permanent and temporary components, which are determined based on deviation and time derivative of the power system's frequency, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed smart drive for the primary frequency control is investigated using the New England 39 bus and a more realistic Great Britain 36 zone test networks. It improves system frequency response in terms of the rate of change of frequency and the frequency nadir. Furthermore, the new control scheme can contribute to quickly damping inter-area oscillations in multi-machine power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently available risk prediction methods are limited in their ability to deal with complex, heterogeneous, and longitudinal data such as that available in primary care records, or in their ability to deal with multiple competing risks. This paper develops a novel deep learning approach that is able to successfully address current limitations of standard statistical approaches such as landmarking and joint modeling. Our approach, which we call Dynamic-DeepHit, flexibly incorporates the available longitudinal data comprising various repeated measurements (rather than only the last available measurements) in order to issue dynamically updated survival predictions for one or multiple competing risk(s). Dynamic-DeepHit learns the time-to-event distributions without the need to make any assumptions about the underlying stochastic models for the longitudinal and the time-to-event processes. Thus, unlike existing works in statistics, our method is able to learn data-driven associations between the longitudinal data and the various associated risks without underlying model specifications. We demonstrate the power of our approach by applying it to a real-world longitudinal dataset from the U.K. Cystic Fibrosis Registry, which includes a heterogeneous cohort of 5883 adult patients with annual follow-ups between 2009 to 2015. The results show that Dynamic-DeepHit provides a drastic improvement in discriminating individual risks of different forms of failures due to cystic fibrosis. Furthermore, our analysis utilizes post-processing statistics that provide clinical insight by measuring the influence of each covariate on risk predictions and the temporal importance of longitudinal measurements, thereby enabling us to identify covariates that are influential for different competing risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid energy storage system (HESS) based on Li-ion and supercapacitor (SC) can play a potential role to stabilize the grid by providing the fast frequency ancillary services. The SC helps to reduce the battery charge/discharge stress and, hence, assists to extend the battery lifespan. The power sharing method (PSM) is the heart in control part to improve the HESS performance and reduce the battery stress. This paper proposes a hybrid PSM and investigates its impact on battery life extension along with its relation to the system design and regulation signal. The performance of hybrid PSM is compared with three other PSMs (low-pass filter, first and second rule based) in a 10 MW/10 MWh full-active parallel HESS for frequency regulation service in two networks: U.K. (national grid) and USA (PJM). Considering maximum possible battery lifetime upto 25 years, result shows that the hybrid PSM approach allows a degree of the better performance for both grid while the sharing of SC is kept maximum 2.0% and 2.5% (for U.S. and U.K. grid, respectively) of the HESS capacity. This study also analyses the impact of PSM on shared capacity and design of HESS for different grid regulation signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Location of the static VAR compensator (SVC) and other types of shunt compensation devices is important for the enhancement of the voltage stability for practical power systems. With the theory of the normal forms of diffeomorphism, this paper proposes a new method to solve this problem. The proposed method makes use of the nonlinear participation factors, in which the nonlinearity of power systems can be taken into consideration. As a result, the most suitable location where the SVC should be used in power system can be determined, even for the cases in which the system is characterized with strong nonlinearity. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed method, the New England 39-bus power system with SVC is used as an example. Calculation results show that with the SVC located at the place where the proposed method determined, the voltage stability is considerably enhanced. The steady-state voltage stability index and the time domain simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past three decades, the scientific and industrial communities have injected considerable resources into perfecting Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex (OFDM) — the driving technology behind many applications used today (such as IEEE 802.11g. Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL), and Digital Terrestrial Television). In 1997, OFDM was officially sanctioned for use in the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) EN 300 744 standard known as Digital Video Broadcasting — Terrestrial (DVB-T). As OFDM is such a popular technology, there has been limited research over the years into alternatives. This paper will propose a novel approach to transmit parallel information through a terrestrial channel that could render it a more flexible alternative to OFDM in the future. Investigations have shown that this technique could provide a highly flexible, channel optimized modulation technique based on time-frequency multiplexing and this paper presents the preliminary phase of investigations into this new technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This two-part paper surveys the frequency and voltage control ancillary services in power systems from various parts of the world. In this second part, essential economic features that must be taken into account when designing markets for ancillary services are first discussed. The methods adopted in eight different systems (Australia, France, Germany, Great Britain, New Zealand, PJM, Spain, and Sweden) for trading frequency and voltage control ancillary services are then compared. Lastly, new indicators for comparing volumes and costs of ancillary services across systems are proposed and calculated for the systems included in this survey. The companion paper surveys the technical features of these ancillary services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on the use of multi-agent system technology to automate the management and analysis of SCADA and digital fault recorder (DFR) data. The multi-agent system, entitled Protection Engineering Diagnostic Agents (PEDA), integrates legacy intelligent systems that analyze SCADA and DFR data to provide data management and online diagnostic information to protection engineers. Since November 2004, PEDA agents have been intelligently interpreting and managing data online at a transmission system operator in the U.K. As the results presented in this paper demonstrate, PEDA supports protection engineers by providing access to interpreted power systems data via the corporate intranet within minutes of the data being received. In this paper, the authors discuss their experience of developing a multi-agent system that is robust enough for continual online use within the power industry. The use of existing agent development toolsets and standards is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The allocation of projects to students is a generic problem in many universities within the U.K. and elsewhere, not only in engineering but also in various other disciplines. This paper defines the student project allocation problem explicitly by an objective function and a number of constraints. Two integer program models are presented, the first of which is a dynamic program. A general purpose solver is used to solve the models, and the input files are included in the Appendix. The models are computationally efficient and easily solved on a PC. Important issues in interpreting the model outputs are highlighted. As with any optimization problem it is possible for constraints to be too tight to permit any feasible solution. Application of the models is demonstrated by using data from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southampton, for the academic year 2001-2002. The model has been used successfully to allocate Individual Project and Group Project to students and is likely to become the defacto method of allocation of projects in the future. This paper demonstrates how operations research techniques used widely in optimizing use of resources can be applied in education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity demand forecasts are needed for decisions regarding generation dispatch for lead times as short as just a few minutes. Imbalance between generation and demand causes deviation of the system frequency from its target, which in Great Britain is 50 Hz. This, in turn, causes a change in demand, due largely to motor loads. For Great Britain, the change is estimated to be 2.5% of demand per 1 Hz of frequency deviation from its target. This can be used to calculate the demand that would have occurred if frequency had been at 50 Hz. Modeling and forecasting the resulting frequency-corrected demand provides a better basis for dispatching generation. This paper evaluates methods for forecasting frequency-corrected demand up to 10 min ahead. We introduce an exponential smoothing model that, like the system operator's proposed Kalman filter approach, jointly models frequency and demand. We also evaluate a set of univariate methods applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. These methods have not previously been considered for lead times less than 10 min. In our empirical analysis, the best results were produced by a seasonal exponential smoothing method applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparison of two forms of cable connection of a distant offshore wind farm to a transmission system: AC and HVDC. The requirements of relevant industry standards in Great Britain (GB) that drive a connection design and, hence, its costs are highlighted along with an analysis of the ways in which AC cable connections might be made to comply while facilitating the export of active power. Dynamic studies investigating responses to grid-side short-circuit faults show that, in the particular scenarios studied, an AC connection of a wind farm in place of a large synchronous generator is marginally detrimental while an HVDC connection is beneficial. A comparison of costs shows that the crossover distance at which HVDC is cheaper than AC for wind farms of different sizes occurs at longer distances than have hitherto commonly been assumed, and AC connections benefit from reactive compensation not only at the point of common coupling and wind farm end, but also at the connection midpoint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper gives a historical overview of the development of the U.K. marine energy sector from its academic beginnings in the early 1970s. It includes discussion on government support policies and where the sector might develop up to and beyond the end of this decade. The paper also presents two very different projects: the European Marine Energy Centre in Orkney, U.K., and the forthcoming All Waters Current and Wave Test Facility in Edinburgh, U.K., as examples of capital investment in the sector. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper considers low-frequency radar cohabitation with digital video broadcasting terrestrial (DVB-T). The spatial and temporal radio frequency propagation characteristics of the terrestrial and air-to-ground channels are modeled using state-of-the-art 3-D ray tracing for real-world broadcast television scenarios. Rooftop DVB-T receivers are assumed at user locations in two different urban environments, namely, the cities of London and Bristol, U.K.. The propagation characteristics are combined with appropriately orientated 3-D antenna radiation patterns, which include full polarization information for the DVB-T rooftop antennas, the base-station antennas, and the airborne radar antennas. A radar waveform generator is used to synthesize a representative range of radar signals. A DVB-T physical layer simulator has been developed to predict the performance of the received broadcast stream at each rooftop location. Factors, such as additive noise, the power and structure of the wanted DVB-T and the interfering radar signals, and the nature of the radio channels, are shown to influence the DVB-T bit error rate results. Statistics for the probability of high-quality DVB-T reception are reported as a function of the modulation scheme, propagation environment, aircraft orientation, radar antenna array configuration, and radar waveform type. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a method to quantify and rank transmission system components by their importance for system reliability under different load scenarios. Each component is ranked by three separate importance indexes based on its expected outage rate and impact on: 1) system security margin; 2) load supply; and 3) generation units. By studying these three interests individually, a more complete view of the risks to system reliability can be assessed. The method is demonstrated on a detailed power system model (7000 components) of a significant part of the Great Britain transmission system at 400 and 275 kV. The results show how sensitive the component indexes are to the load scenario. The method provides an input for decision-making when planning maintenance and new investment and can be used as a complement to deterministic criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

One of the major concerns of research in integrated healthcare information systems is to enable decision support among clinicians across boundaries of organizations and regional workgroups. A necessary precursor, however, is to facilitate the construction of appropriate awareness of local clinical practices, including a clinician's actual cognitive capabilities, peculiar workplace circumstances, and specific patient-centered needs based on real-world clinical contexts across work settings. In this paper, a user-centered study aimed to investigate clinical practices across three different geographical areas—the U.K., the UAE and Nigeria—is presented. The findings indicate that differences in clinical practices among clinicians are associated with differences in local work contexts across work settings, but are moderated by adherence to best practice guidelines and the need for patient-centered care. The study further reveals that an awareness especially of the ontological, stereotypical, and situated practices plays a crucial role in adapting knowledge for cross-boundary decision support. The paper then outlines a set of design guidelines for the development of enterprise information systems for e-health. Based on the guidelines, the paper proposes the conceptual design of CaDHealth, a practice-centered framework for making sense of clinical practices across work settings for effective cross-boundary e-health decision support. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Optimal reactive power flow applications often model large numbers of discrete shunt devices as continuous variables, which are rounded to their nearest discrete value at the final iteration. This can degrade optimality. This paper presents novel methods based on probabilistic and adaptive threshold approaches that can extend existing security constrained optimal reactive power flow methods to effectively solve large-scale network problems involving discrete shunt devices. Loss reduction solutions from the proposed techniques were compared to solutions from the mixed integer nonlinear mathematical programming algorithm (MINLP) using modified IEEE standard networks up to 118 buses. The proposed techniques were also applied to practical large-scale network models of Great Britain. The results show that the proposed techniques can achieve improved loss minimization solutions when compared to the standard rounding method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power is an increasingly used form of renewable energy. The uncertainty in wind generation is very large due to the inherent variability in wind speed, and this needs to be understood by operators of power systems and wind farms. To assist with the management of this risk, this paper investigates methods for predicting the probability density function of generated wind power from one to ten days ahead at five U.K. wind farm locations. These density forecasts provide a description of the expected future value and the associated uncertainty. We construct density forecasts from weather ensemble predictions, which are a relatively new type of weather forecast generated from atmospheric models. We also consider density forecasting from statistical time series models. The best results for wind power density prediction and point forecasting were produced by an approach that involves calibration and smoothing of the ensemble-based wind power density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an intermediate solution between Glaser's satellite solar power (SSP) and ground-based photovoltaic (PV) panels, this paper examines the collection of solar energy using a high-altitude aerostatic platform. A procedure to calculate the irradiance in the medium/high troposphere, based on experimental data, is described. The results show that here a PV system could collect about four to six times the energy collected by a typical U.K.-based ground installation, and between one-third and half of the total energy the same system would collect if supported by a geostationary satellite (SSP). The concept of the aerostat for solar power generation is then briefly described together with the equations that link its main engineering parameters/variables. A preliminary sizing of a facility stationed at 6 km altitude and its costing, based on realistic values of the input engineering parameters, is then presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents selected findings from a three-year research project that was funded by the Human Sciences domain of the U.K. Ministry of Defence's scientific research program. A significant number of military systems are operated by teams of varying sizes, and there is a trend toward greater teamwork in the future, as technological advances enable enhanced cooperation between geographically distributed personnel. The need to be able to determine the most appropriate team structure for the most effective performance is becoming greater. The approach that is presented here has taken theoretical concepts from the team performance literature, developed them into an enhanced theoretical formulation, operationalized them, selected representative tradeoff criteria, and implemented them using a computer-modeling tool. The program that was undertaken was able to demonstrate that operationalizing team structure and team-performance-shaping factors in specific behavioral terms in this way has immense potential to generate quantitative output, allowing meaningful comparisons among design or operational alternatives. In addition, the discipline of the operationalization process provides a means for enriching theoretical concepts by grounding them in realistic behavioral terms, and this can lead to enhanced theorizing. Furthermore, once the initial data are collected and the model is built, modification is neither labor nor time intensive. The approach could be developed further to apply to many more team structure and performance concepts. We believe that this will enhance both the theory and the value of team-structure modeling for practical application in system design in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If transmission charges are to reflect costs, they should be affected by the location of demand and generation. This paper describes the investment cost-related pricing (ICRP) methodology used to calculate transmission charges in Great Britain (GB), which is based on the marginal investment cost of additional demand or generation, using a dc load flow transport model. We apply this existing method to calculate charges for the Supergen FutureNet scenarios for 2020. This study highlights the sensitivities in charges for use of the transmission system arising from plausible demand and generation developments. The changes in tariffs will present financial challenges for system users in some areas. The objective of the work presented is to illustrate the sensitivity of the charges produced by this methodology to changes in demand, generation, and network topology rather than compare alternative pricing approaches. The conclusion drawn is that the ICRP system pricing method may be suitable in future years but only with some important issues investigated and resolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity industry is significantly affected by weather conditions both in terms of the operation of the network infrastructure and electricity consumption. Following privatization and deregulation, the electricity industry in the U.K. has become fragmented and central planning has largely disappeared. In order to maximize profits, the margin of supply has decreased and the network is being run closer to capacity in certain areas. Careful planning is required to manage future electricity demand within the framework of this leaner electricity network. There is evidence that the climate in the U.K. is changing with a possible 3°C average annual temperature increase by 2080. This paper investigates the impact of weather variables on monthly electricity demand in England and Wales. A multiple regression model is developed to forecast monthly electricity demand based on weather variables, gross domestic product, and population growth. The average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the worst model is approximately 2.60% in fitting the monthly electricity demand from 1989 to 1995 and approximately 2.69% in the forecasting over the period 1996 to 2003. This error may reflect the nonlinear dependence of demand on temperature at the hot and cold temperature extremes; however, the inclusion of degree days, enthalpy latent days, and relative humidity in the model improves the demand forecast during the summer months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2002, the commercial digital terrestrial television service in the United Kingdom had a technological revival Since its first broadcast in 1998, there have been a number of reception issues concerning Digital Video Broadcasting - Terrestrial (DVB-T). As a result, the modulation method has changed in order to maximize the coverage and minimize errors. The consequence of changing the modulation method to a more robust system is that the overall throughput must suffer. Therefore, a trade-off between throughput and robustness must be made. This paper will detail the results of experiments performed to ascertain the justification of changing the modulation method in a DVB-T compliant system from 64-QAM to 16- QAM when transmitted at Radio Frequencies (RF) when subjected to multipath with long path delays as is normal in a Single Frequency Network (SFN). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the use of formal development methods on an industrial safety-critical application. The Z notation was used for documenting the system specification and part of the design, and the SPARK[SUP1] subset of Ada was used for coding. However, perhaps the most distinctive nature of the project lies in the amount of proof that was carried out: proofs were carried out both at the Z level--approximately 150 proofs in 500 pages--and at the SPARK code level--approximately 9,000 verification conditions generated and discharged. The project was carried out under UK Interim Defence Standards 00-55 and 00-56, which require the use of formal methods on safety-critical applications. It is believed to be the first to be completed against the rigorous demands of the 1991 version of these standards. The paper includes comparisons of proof with the various types of testing employed, in terms of their efficiency at finding faults. The most striking result is that the Z proof appears to be substantially more efficient at finding faults than the most efficient testing phase. Given the importance of early fault detection, we believe this helps to show the significant benefit and practicality of large-scale proof on projects of this kind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"Space allocation" was a central pursuit in postwar research on computing and architecture. Researchers sought an algorithm that could automatically design the most efficient floor plan for a set of activities. In this article, we connect an early algorithm for computing architectural floor plans to the postwar British hospital. We examine how researchers adapted algorithmic methods for floor layout design developed in industrial capitalist settings to the promotion of the British welfare state. Finally, we pay special attention to the agency that certain graphic inscriptions borrowed from mathematics had in validating these particular algorithmic methods as promising avenues for the algorithmic automation of all architectural work. This article situates the automation of hospital design in postwar U.K. at the intersection of building science and healthcare management, with the aim to contribute critical perspectives on algorithmic reifications of work in early computer-aided architectural design systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Describes Alan Turing's work with morphogenesis. Analogy of Turing's morphogenesis work with his computing work; Turing's reputation as an outstanding mathematician and computer scientist; `The Chemical Basis of Morphogenesis' as most frequently cited work; Feature of Turing's publications; Argument on the origin of the design of organism; Problems of contemporary biology.