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This paper proposes a novel aviation CO 2 emissions reduction method by introducing a market-based incentive mechanism. An aviation carbon emissions prediction model is proposed to characterize both the microscopic flight dynamics and the macroscopic air traffic demand trend. Based on emissions prediction, a linear climate response model is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of the aviation carbon emissions. Finally, a market-based framework for aviation CO 2 emissions reduction is established based on a two-phase carbon trading model, which provides a piecewise charge method through emission taxation and cap-and-trade. A case study is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework using a real-world dataset from the Hefei Air Traffic Control Zone in China. Three scenarios are defined to describe the possible development speed of sustainable aviation fuel application in the future: not applied, medium-speed development, and high-speed development. The results show that the carbon peak will be reached in 2025 in the high-speed development scenario, when the emission amount and associated environmental impact will be reduced by 23.7% and 22.3%, respectively. Thus, the market-based framework proposed in this paper can effectively reduce aviation CO 2 emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming. • An aviation CO 2 emissions prediction model is proposed considering both microscopic flight dynamics and macroscopic traffic demand. • A more efficient market-based CO 2 emission reduction framework is developed based on a two-phase carbon trading model by means of taxation and cap-and-trade. • Case study shows that the proposed method has a more optimal incentive for CO 2 emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents new data and reviews previously obtained results on the late glacial to Holocene history of peatlands in the southern part of the Baikal region under conditions of regional climate changes. To better understand climate signals, we have combined vegetation and geochemical variation data in 4.6 m thick peat deposits in the Vydrino bog located on the Tankhoi piedmont plain south of Lake Baikal. The territory has been swamped since 13.1 cal ka BP when the peatland started developing as a fen upon a sedimentary substrate. The 13.1–9.5 cal kyr climate record included two events of warming separated by an excursion of dry cold climate. Warming continued till 9.0 cal ka BP and eutrophic peat formation occurred in favorable temperature and moisture conditions. Another warming episode between 9.0 and 8.4 cal ka BP ended up with the Holocene climate optimum while the bog became mesotrophic. About 7.3–6.5 cal ka BP, the temperature and moisture inputs were no longer optimal for fir and spruce forests in the Vydrino area, which led to dramatic changes in landscape and vegetation. The wet and warm climate gradually became drier and colder from 6.5 to 2.3 cal ka BP, with a brief warm excursion about 5.5–5.3 cal ka BP. The peat deposition was interrupted in a cold climate from ∼2.3 cal ka BP to ∼0.7 cal ka BP, and the bog became oligotrophic afterwards. The newly obtained data allowed us to compare the paleoclimatic indicators available for the south Baikal region to determine their compatibility and inconsistency. In addition, we provide a general view to the quality of the climate and environmental reconstructions in the Baikal region by comparison of the data on its peatland study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change constitutes a complex challenge posing an urgent threat to our planet and life and creating an entirely different way of conceptualising the world and our chances to provide safe food within it. There are currently numerous studies dealing with the potential effect of increased temperature, extreme weather events and cascading events on food safety and subsequently human health. In contrast to food safety, the available data on the impact of climate change on food quality, including food spoilage, are very limited. This paper presents an overview of the potential impact of climate change on both food safety and microbial spoilage at various stages of the food chain. Among the different hazards related to climate change, mycotoxin and marine biotoxin contamination, environmental residuals derived from various anthropogenic activities and zoonosis diseases are identified as climatic-driven emerging risks to human life and discussed further in this paper. Global warming is projected to affect all microorganisms, including spoilage bacteria and fungi. Hence, this paper also discusses the potential increased risk of microbial spoilage for bulk dried foods and non-refrigerated processed foods which could be high susceptible to climate change in relation to growth of spoilage organisms. The paper concludes that climate change requires multidisciplinary approaches to gain in-depth knowledge and identify potential emerging risks. In addition, this paper goes beyond food safety and addresses an overlooked aspect of climate change, namely the microbiological spoilage of foods that may require a high level of preparedness by both the food industry and policy makers. • Τhe potential impact of climate change on food safety and food spoilage is reviewed. • The most important climatic-driven emerging risks are discussed. • Climate change may promote pathogens proliferation and foodborne diseases outbreaks. • Spoilage bacteria and fungi are expected to be affected due to climate change. • Non-refrigerated foods are the most susceptible to spoilage due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is the primary supplier of heat and moisture to the global atmosphere, and exerts a significant impact on tropical and worldwide climate variability. This special issue expands our understanding of the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic evolution of the IPWP since Neogene times with implications for understanding future change. It contains fifteen research articles addressing two primary themes: (1) Ocean-atmosphere coupled processes via the ocean water-column, sea surface, atmospheric evaporation/precipitation; and (2) Sediment source-to-sink and biogeochemical carbon-cycles, and their interactions with oceanographic, hydrological, tectonic and other factors. These contributions improve our understanding of thermocline temperature, salinity, oxygenation, hydrography, carbon cycle, biological productivity, and sedimentary response in the IPWP across Neogene and Quaternary time scales, as well as aiding in the forecast of future climate responses in the context of current global warming. The special issue will capture the attention of geologists, climatologists, and anybody else interested in global climate change. • This is the editorial preface for the VSI on Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. • 15 papers are included and shortly introduced. • Two themes are included. • The 15 papers provide new views on paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Product service systems (PSS) are an example of a novel business model billed as having the potential to significantly reduce the environmental burdens of production and consumption processes. However, despite widespread interest in PSS, consensus regarding their actual environmental impacts, particularly with regard to salient issues such as global warming, is lacking. Hence this paper explores existing research to investigate the state of the art regarding the climatic impacts of PSS, alongside the set of factors that influence climatic impacts. The paper comprises a systematic review of peer-reviewed academic literature, quantifying the extent to which different types of PSS have the capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across multiple product categories. Our study shows that significant reductions in climatic emissions are possible, but PSS are in many cases associated with more modest reductions and, in some cases, increased emissions. Further, we observe no clear differences in climatic impacts according to the type of PSS model that is deployed. Rather, differences in climatic impact are influenced by factors such as production and design alongside use-phase impacts and contextual factors such as transportation and the energy mix. The study argues that further research is needed to establish a more robust baseline upon which to draw conclusions regarding the sources of climatic impacts, and outlines fruitful ways for companies to tackle the complexities of climatic emissions that are beyond their control. • In some cases, product service systems can reduce climatic impacts by up to 80%. • In other cases, climatic impacts increase compared to traditional product sales. • Climatic impacts are influenced by use intensity, transportation and production. • Other contextual factors such as the energy mix play a role. • More quantitative assessments are needed with less reliance on estimations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NHS accounts for 5.4% of the UK's total carbon footprint, with the perioperative environment being the most resource hungry aspect of the hospital. The aim of this systematic review was to assimilate the published studies concerning the sustainability of the perioperative environment, focussing on the impact of implemented interventions. A systematic review was performed using Pubmed, OVID, Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews and Medline. Original manuscripts describing interventions aimed at improving operating theatre environmental sustainability were included. 675 abstracts were screened with 34 manuscripts included. Studies were divided into broad themes; recycling and waste management, waste reduction, reuse, reprocessing or life cycle analysis, energy and resource reduction and anaesthetic gases. This review summarises the interventions identified and their resulting effects on theatre sustainability. This systematic review has identified simple, yet highly effective interventions across a variety of themes that can lead to improved environmental sustainability of surgical operating theatres. Combining these interventions will likely result in a synergistic improvement to the environmental impact of surgery. • Perioperative environments use 3–6 times more energy than the hospital in general. • Paper/cardboard recycling bins in operating areas led to a 50–67% recycling rate. • Reusable items can lead to 70% reduction in waste generation. • Alcohol scrub solutions vs handwashing saves ∼930,000 L/year/hospital of water. • Dispensing propofol in 20 mL bottles instead of 50/100 mL reduces drug wastage by 90%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and global warming have led to an increased incidence of flooding across the world. Against the backdrop of the recent devastating floods in the Kwazulu-Natal province of South Africa, this paper explores psychotraumatology of natural disasters. In particular, we explore the impact of internal migration in South Africa, as well as apartheid spatial planning and inequality on the consequences of the flooding. We also focus on the psychotraumatology resulting from flooding, in general, and in particular on the victims of the flooding in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. We conclude that the psychopathological consequences of such natural disasters are ignored even though they seriously affect the people concerned. The development of specific trainings for psychologists in psychotraumatology and the care of victims should be a priority in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in drought in Serbia over recent decades using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The analysis is performed for time series of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month SPEI indices (SPEI-01, SPEI-03, SPEI-06 and SPEI-12, respectively) calculated using the E -OBS gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° for the period of 1950–2022. In general, it was found that negative SPEI trends prevailed in Serbia for all months and all analyzed SPEI timescales, indicating a more frequent appearance of droughts in recent decades. Moreover, for a large majority of month-timescale combinations, the area with a negative trend was larger than the area with a positive trend. For several reasons, we focused on the SPEI for August. First, the SPEI for this month shows one of the most pronounced negative trends, which is rather consistent over different timescales and consistent in terms of the area over which the trend was found to be significant. Statistically significant negative trends of SPEI-03, −06 and − 12 for August were found over 11, 17 and 38% of the country area, respectively. To better understand the trends and changes in the SPEI for August, focusing on extreme and severe drought events, an innovative trend analysis (ITA) was applied. It was found that the occurrence of both extreme and severe SPEI drought categories has doubled over the last thirty years in comparison with the previous thirty-year period. Additionally, more frequent transitions from neutral and wet categories to dry categories were observed through an application of the Markov chain. Second, the special focus on SPEI-03, −06 and − 12 for August was motivated by the fact that we found a significant correlation between these index values and the annual maize production in Serbia, indicating that the SPEI for August can be useful for the assessment of drought impact on agriculture. To better understand interannual variability and long-term trends, this paper also explores the relations between the SPEI over Serbia and large-scale circulation patterns, together with general global and continental warming trends. Our findings indicate that drought changes over recent decades may be driven by the interplay of long-term warming and large-scale circulation patterns. In the context of climate change, especially climate projections, Serbia is situated in a region for which climate projections of mean precipitation change demonstrate weak signals and often with conflicting signs of change within multimodel ensembles. From this point of view, our results can be seen as a contribution to a better understanding of changes in extremes, in our case droughts, that can be hidden by inconclusive changes in the mean values. Finally, due to the similar situation in terms of precipitation and drought trends and changes, our results may be relevant for a wider region, and not only for Serbia. • For Serbia negative trends in SPEI index, for different months and timescales, are dominant. • Occurrence of extreme drought categories has doubled over the last decades. • Transitions from neutral and wet categories to dry categories are more frequent. • These changes are driven by long-term warming and large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

France is one of the countries that have made commendable progress towards accomplishing sustainable development goals but still struggles with combating environmental challenges. Decarbonizing the energy sector by deploying clean energy and reducing fossil fuels in the energy mix are essential steps. The study uses annual time series data from 1980 to 2021 and employs the ridge regression estimation technique to estimate a twice-differentiable transcendental production function, which approximates the second-order Taylor series to explore the potential for such decarbonization for France. The study finds that substitution possibilities exist between clean energy and fossil fuels, with substantial substitution possibilities coming from nuclear energy. Nuclear energy and renewables are found to be complements that can be deployed concurrently, but since nuclear energy already constitutes a significant proportion of clean energy for France, the study recommends increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the overall energy mix as the most plausible path to decarbonization. Other complementary sustainable energy policies are recommended in the body of the paper. • The substitution elasticities between clean energy and fossil fuels were estimated. • A second-order Taylor series trans-log production function was specified. • Substitutability is found between clean energy and fossil fuels. • Nuclear energy currently dominates France's clean energy mix. • Increasing renewables in the clean energy mix is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyzed trends and breakpoints for three streamflow signatures of drying patterns in 540 non-perennial streams over CONUS • Nonlinear changes in streamflow are more common than linear changes for all three stream intermittency signatures. • The past behavior of non-perennial streams might be a poor predictor of future drying patterns Stream drying patterns – including duration, timing, and dry-down rates – affect aquatic ecosystems and nutrient exports in non-perennial streams. Because hydrologic processes are often nonlinear, changes in drying may also be nonlinear, but analyses of historical changes in stream drying to date have not characterized the frequency or functional forms of nonlinear change. Understanding the extent of nonlinear change in non-perennial streams is essential for advancing our fundamental knowledge of hydrological processes, aquatic ecosystems, and watershed functioning under a warming climate. This paper uses a polynomial-based trend detection technique (PolyTrend) to analyze the linear and nonlinear trend behaviors of three intermittency signatures (annual no-flow days specifying longer or shorter drying duration, day of first no-flow occurrence specifying timing of stream drying, and days from peak to no-flow specifying dry-down rates) at 540 non-perennial gage stations over 38 years (1980–2017) across the continental United States (CONUS). Additionally, we carried out a breakpoint analysis to characterize the discontinuities in the time series of each intermittency signature. Analysis of annual no-flow days shows that about 37 % of the total streamflow stations are drying for longer each year, whereas about 22 % are wetter for longer than in the past. The day of first no-flow occurrence analysis shows that 10 % of the streams are drying earlier, and 19 % are drying later. On the other hand, analysis of days from peak to no-flow shows that 14 % of streams are drying faster, and 17 % are drying more slowly. For all these metrics, among the significant trends, at least half of the relationships were nonlinear. For annual no-flow days , the breakpoint analysis shows more discontinuities in the second half of the analysis period (1999 to 2017) than in the first half, with more discontinuities in the Southern Great Plains than in other regions. The other two signatures demonstrate less frequent discontinuities in the second half of the analysis period, suggesting decreased nonlinear dynamics in recent years. Nonlinear no-flow duration trends are common in Mediterranean California, and the dry-down rate has increased in recent decades. Our findings indicate that nonlinear change in stream drying is widespread and must be accounted for in watershed planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become a serious environmental matter of global concern. This paper attempts to verify if there is climatic change in Sub-Saharan Africa with the help of monthly station data from January 1901 to December 2020 on the mean temperatures of 48 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. To do this, we employ fractional integration to account for the data's probable long memory feature. However, because other statistical features such as linear trends and seasonality might also be present in the data, we propose a broad framework that treats these three characteristics (long-range dependence, time trends, and seasonality) in a unified treatment. We first note that long memory is an observed feature in the data and using the original data, the time trends are found to be significant in Southern and Eastern countries, with higher coefficients being observed when the post-War II data are employed. When looking at the anomalies with respect to selected periods, long memory is found in all cases, and a higher number of trends are detected. Thus, 41 countries show significant time trends, with the values being higher again in the post WW2 sample, suggesting that industrialization might have contributed to global warming. The results also indicate some degree of heterogeneity across the African countries. • Examined mean temperatures in 48 countries through a monthly sample spanning January 1901 to December 2020. • Long memory is an observed feature in the data. • Time trends are found to be significantly positive in Southern and Eastern countries. • Higher coefficients are observed when the post-War II data are employed. • The results also indicate some degree of heterogeneity across the African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transition zones are the hotspots of bioclimatic changes under global warming. • Global warming extends growing season lengths but increases heat and water stresses. • Sustainable grasslands in China shrink and shift northwestward with global warming. Bioclimatic response to global warming is a key linkage between anthropogenic climate change and ecosystem sustainability, particularly for the impact-prone climate transition zones. This paper examines changes in heat-water conditions from 2006 to 2100 across China, using the fifth generation climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) and bias-adjusted climate projections by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We then assess the effects of these changes on habitat suitability for responsive ecosystems using a species distribution model. The results reveal significant changes in bioclimatic environments across dry–wet climate transition zones under the present-day climate and the RCP8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, local growing season length (GSL) could extend by 60 days and 30 % of the GSL could be under heat stress. Water conditions worsen overall in both the air and the soil, despite some improvements in the middle parts of transition zones. With altered heat-water conditions, sustainable grasslands shift northwestward, with a reduction of approximately 131 million km2 (46.6 % relative to 2006–2010) in total area. These changes primarily arise from alterations in winter and spring heat-water conditions. Our findings highlight the climate transition zones as hotspots of ecosystem vulnerability demanding particular attention in impact assessment and adaptation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The mechanism of rolling resistance of asphalt pavements is presented. • The measuring and modelling approaches of rolling resistance are summarised. • The prediction methods of fuel consumption and environmental impact are reviewed. In the context of climate change and global warming, the attention on the environmental cost of pavements is increasing. To scientifically quantify the environmental cost of pavements, accurate prediction of rolling resistance and fuel consumption is important. In this paper, a comprehensive review on rolling resistance of asphalt pavements and its environmental impact was presented. At first, the commonly used definitions of rolling resistance and texture characterisation methods of pavement surface were introduced. Then, the influence of different factors on rolling resistance was discussed. Next, the measuring and modelling approaches of rolling resistance were reviewed. At last, methods which can be used to predict fuel consumption and environmental impact were presented. It was found that an ideal approach for texture characterisation of pavement surface is to make use of the entire wavelength spectrum of road profiles and consider the enveloping curve of tire treads. Furthermore, the fact that rolling resistance can be influenced by different factors introduces difficulties in accurate measurement and modelling of rolling resistance. Moreover, testing methods and conditions have a significant effect on the empirical modelling of rolling resistance, while it is difficult and time-consuming to consider all the energy loss in the computational modelling of rolling resistance. In addition, the prediction of fuel consumption and environmental impact highly depends on the formulating methods and measuring conditions. The work presented in this paper will help to gain more insight into rolling resistance and its environmental impact, which ultimately promotes the construction of environmentally friendly pavements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on climate change in Turkey caused by energy consumption using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The motivation and aim are: Finding evidence of causality for the relationship between energy consumption, growing economies and climate change depending on parameters that vary over time, which are observed and argued through political implications. Temperature and precipitation are the dependent variables for climate change; energy types and Gross Domestic Product per capita are the independent variables for economic determiners. Data was collected annually from various institutions between 1980 and 2019. According to the Toda-Yamamoto test, a negative relationship is determined between renewable energy consumption and temperature in both the short and long term. The results reveal that a 1% increase in renewable energy reduces the temperature by 0.031%. The increase of renewable energy may help in decreasing temperature. Precipitation and non-renewable energy consumption have a positive relationship in both the short and long term, with a 1% increase in non-renewable energy consumption causing a 0.175% increase in precipitation, indicating a negative effect on climate change. Encouraging renewable energy consumption through government incentives can be a powerful solution to decrease the negative effects of climate change in Turkey. • This study examines the relationships between climate change and energy consumption. • It conducts an ARDL analysis and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests in a growing economy. • Renewable energy consumption has a positive effect (reduces) temperature. • Non-renewable energy consumption has a negative effect (increases) precipitation. • Renewable energy consumption is critical mitigating global warming in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an overview of the results obtained by collaborative use of integrative multidisciplinary investigation of a highly unique geological section discovered in the south-eastern part of the Gulf of Finland. The main aim of this study is to identify the Late Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes in the study area during one of the most controversial periods in the Late Pleistocene history, which is the MIS 5. Our approach to achieving the goal is based on the investigation of feldspar-based infrared optically stimulated luminescence (IR-OSL) dated records of pollen-induced palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental proxies. Palynological analysis and IR-OSL dates of 29 samples for the first time produced a detailed, characterised and dated sequence of palynological zones M6 to M8 ranging from ca. 94 ka to ca. 70 ka and made it possible to determine the chronological sequence of climate changes in this interval. Representative pollen spectra from 69 samples provided convincing evidence of a warm interval of interglacial rank at least during the latter half of MIS 5. The data obtained in the present study from well-preserved deposits of the second half of MIS 5 provided a novel insight into the palaenvironmental conditions during this period. These results seem to contradict the widely held view according to which the last interglacial stage with the climate conditions similar or warmer than today corresponds to only a small part of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 of the deep-sea stratigraphy, i.e. MISs 5e lasting ca. 11 ka, and the period from 100 ka to 80 ka is attributed to an Early Weichselian glaciation, which in Northern Eurasia reached its maximum at about 90 ka. However, the findings obtained during the present study are also convincingly confirmed by those of our previous long-term investigations of warm climate-related shell-bearing deposits of various origins from Northern Eurasia including climatically highly sensitive Eurasian Arctic palaeo-shelf area. These results indicated that the overwhelming majority of the warm climate-related dates (ca. 82%) is also concentrated in the latter half of MIS 5 in the time range between 110 ka and 70 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The building sector is critical in climate change mitigation by reducing its energy consumption. At the same time, warming climate requires adaptation measures from buildings, making it necessary to study the future thermal energy demand of buildings. This paper studies the impact of climate change on the thermal energy demand of buildings in a heating dominated climate of Finland, under "representative concentration pathway" (RCP) climate scenarios in near- (2030), medium- (2050) and long-term (2080) horizon. Additionally, the impact of the thermal performance level of the buildings is investigated. The thermal energy demand calculation is based on overarching standards from the European "energy performance of buildings" directive. The weather scenarios present both typical and extreme weather years, applied through morphing and future weather data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The results show that annual thermal energy demand in Finland in 2080 can decrease up to 74.6 kWh/m 2. In addition, the decrease in heating demand will be higher than the increase in cooling demand. Cooling can become the dominant peak in long-term evaluations, especially in South Finland (Vantaa) with passive buildings under RCP8.5 climate scenario. Renovation is the most efficient action to decrease energy intensity, the earliest it is done the better. [Display omitted] • Thermal energy demand of detached houses in Finland is studied under RCP climate scenarios. • Thermal energy demand is expected to decrease in Finland in long-term. • RCP scenario affects when the highest average annual thermal energy change occurs. • Cooling can become the dominant thermal peak demand source for passive buildings. • Renovating building to newer standards remains beneficial, though less with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Ocean is rapidly warming. In this paper, we document changes in the source, distribution, and accumulation rate of organic matter (OM) for three sediment cores in the Bering and Chukchi seas to investigate changes to the oceanic carbon cycle over the past ∼75 years. Analyses were undertaken using bulk properties, such as total organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), stable carbon isotope (δ13C), OC to TN molar ratio (C/N), and biomarkers (lignin phenols). The OC, TN, and lignin (Σ8, in mg (g sediment)−1) contents were found to be significantly related to the fraction of sand (Sand%) as a result of sediment sorting and/or different sediment sources. Using an end-member mixing model, we estimated marine OM accounted for ∼67% of all organic matter in all cores, being the dominant source. Moreover, terrestrial OM mainly originated from angiosperm non-woody tissue, while moss contribution was negligible. In the Bering Sea shelf, OC% has not changed over time, but there have been some extreme peaks around the 1960s–1970s and in 2005, which correspond to increased terrestrial input from North American rivers. In the southern core from the Chukchi Sea, the OC% showed an apparent decrease after 2000, accompanied by an increase in sand content, likely due to enhanced delivery of volcanic rocks by the Pacific Inflow from the Bering Sea. In contrast, in the northern core from the Chukchi Sea, the OC% showed a significant increasing trend, with some peaks occurring at the same time as in the Bering Sea core. The mean increase rate was compared to the increase in Siberian riverine discharge, which both could be caused by long-term climate changes. The results highlight the regional differences in the response of OC preservation to climate change and other controlling factors. Further studies with higher spatial resolution are required to better understand the preservation of OC in response to climate change. [Display omitted] • The main vegetation source was vascular plant, contribution from moss was limited. • Marine source accounted for ∼67% of the sedimentary OC in the (sub)Arctic cores. • OC preservation changed differently in the (sub)Arctic Ocean in past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the growing need for residential buildings as a result of population growth, the building sector is a high-priority area in climate change due to its large share of CO 2 emissions, the significant energy saving opportunities it represents, and the increasing expectations for occupant comfort. This paper presents the results of climate change impact assessment on a typical mid-rise residential building in four representative cities with different climatic characteristics in Turkey. Three different scenarios that characterize different solutions towards space cooling are developed, from naturally ventilated to fully air-conditioned. The energy requirements and corresponding CO 2 emissions due to space conditioning as well as occupant thermal comfort are the investigated building performance metrics. The preliminary results based on energy simulations indicate that pronounced overheating will be experienced in the future, which will have a strong effect on cooling energy use and/or occupant comfort. The projected energy demand also points to the future need to explore measures for climate change adaptation of buildings and the importance of the decarbonization of the electricity industry for climate change mitigation. The analysis results presented in this paper provide a basis for future studies on building retrofit for climate change. • Evaluation of climate change impact on a typical residential building in Turkey. • Cooling is to dominate thermal loads due to increased temperatures. • Warmer climates to be influenced most by negative effects. • Severe overheating for poorly ventilated, highly insulated buildings. • Adaptation measures needed for climate-proofing existing buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an innovative framework is introduced for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures, with a primary emphasis on modeling future climate conditions. The framework encompasses several key components: the development of a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis; a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy; and the integration of a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structure sites. These advancements are designed to effectively manage multiple climate scenarios and models within the context of high uncertainty. The methodology is applied and validated for a coastal structure located on the Mediterranean coast in Spain. Focusing on compound wave and sea-level events, the projections indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme conditions, exacerbating coastal impacts such as wave overtopping. For instance, the present-day 500-year coastal flooding level would be associated with a return period of 50 years by mid-century under a stabilization scenario and would be further reduced to 25 years under a high-emission global warming scenario, resulting in important consequences for structure performance if no adaptation is implemented. • Develops a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures. • It develops a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis. • It encompasses a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy. • It integrates a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structures sites. • It has been applied and validated for a coastal structure in Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The extent of flooding in China is greater than in any other country. • Nearly 66% of China's landmass is submerged by flooding. • Financial toll of flooding accounts for approximately 1.42% of the annual GDP. • Various forms of climatic change contribute to flooding. The extent of flooding in China is more significant than in any other country. Our research reveals that approximately 66 % of China's landmass is submerged by flooding, affecting about 50 % of the population. Furthermore, the financial toll of flooding now accounts for approximately 1.42 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP), which is almost 40 times higher than the corresponding figure for the United States. We have observed that Zhengzhou city in Henan province, which faced a devastating flood in 2021, received a significant amount of rainfall, specifically a total of 552.5 mm within a 24-hour period. The floods in Henan province in 2021 caused considerable damage, including impacting nearly 15 million people, resulting in almost 400 deaths, damaging over 10,000 square kilometers of agricultural land, causing almost $19 billion in economic losses, and leading to the collapse of over 35,000 households and damage to various properties. In a similar manner, the significant flooding that occurred in southern China in 2020 impacted approximately 7.1 million individuals across eight provinces and resulted in 54 fatalities, the collapse of 6,700 houses, and incurred a direct economic loss of US$3.33 billion. We found that rainstorms have significantly increased to 10 % in the last 60 years in China. In this paper, we delved into exploring the existing published articles, reports, and government and authoritative legal texts to analyze the causes and impacts of flooding in China's flood-prone regions and potential mitigation strategies to reduce the repercussions of distressing flood events. We believe this study will help policymakers by providing new insights while formulating policy to reduce the loss caused by high-level flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radon can pose a serious risk on human health. At present, radon has been considered as the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The potential risk of radon exposure in cold regions of Northern Hemisphere is increasing due to climate-induced permafrost degradation. In this paper, we took permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere as our study area. We performed an extensive literature review on the Web of Science (WoS), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Google Scholar (GS). We divided these selected literatures into three groups: Group uranium, Group radon and Group permafrost and tried to reveal the impacts of distribution of uranium deposits/u-rich rocks and permafrost/permafrost degradation on radon concentration/migration in permafrost regions. Based our research, it is evident that uranium deposits or U-rich rocks provides an abundant source of U (Ra) for soils and groundwaters in permafrost regions, resulting in abnormally high concentrations of radioactive elements in soils and groundwaters. As a natural barrier, permafrost soils could screen the radon gas from migrating into underground dwellings and work-space in cold regions. However, permafrost degradation has been extensively observed and this trend is projected to continue under a warming climate. Permafrost degradation and ground ice melting, water exchange, gas emissions and thaw settlement have enhanced the ability of radon migration into dwellings and work space, which substantially endangers human health if long exposed. Our synthesis results also underline that the related research of radon migration and relation in permafrost regions are grossly inadequate and urgently needed. Research priorities include the mechanisms of radon migration in freezing, frozen, thawing and thawed soils/rocks, responses of release of radon sequestered in permafrost soils and radon migration in groundwater systems, among many others, to permafrost degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delves into the potential impact of a changing climate on the energy performance of European buildings. Research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of current energy requirements focusing on the envelope, considering existing regulations in national policies. Energy simulations are conducted at 94 locations across the European Union to cover the climatic variability and Koppen climate classification. The research analyzes future climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070, using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). According to a comprehensive analysis of heating, cooling, and overall energy performance, climate plays a significant role in buildings' energy balance. In moderately cool climate countries, the demand for air conditioning is projected to decrease in the years ahead. Conversely, in countries with a warm climate, there is a projected increase in the overall energy demand. Consequently, a revision of current energy regulations should be a priority. Providing insights into the relation between building design, energy efficiency, and climate change, the research identifies policy adjustments to ensure buildings can effectively respond to changing climatic conditions. A holistic and dynamic approach can support building design accounting for long-term impacts of climate change to create resilient and energy-efficient structures. • National building energy regulations of European Member States do not tackle climate change. • Over next decades, a decrease in heating demand is forecasted across all climate zones. • There is potential for a future considerable increase of cooling demand in Europe. • A reduction in total building energy demand in colder climates and an increase in warmer climates can be expected. • Revise national energy regulations, especially in warmer zones, to curb the expected rise in Europe's total energy demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of political uncertainty on sustainable urban development by examining carbon emission trading systems (ETS) in four major markets in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei) from 2014 to 2022. As an alternative to carbon taxes, carbon ETS markets have become increasingly popular due to their success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, their effectiveness is often hindered by political instability and uncertainty. Utilising logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations, we identify a negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon trading volume. Our study also reveals significant variations in the responses of these markets to political uncertainty. The paper contributes to the understanding of how ETS markets operate in a complex and constantly changing political environment. We suggest that policymakers need to consider the impact of political uncertainty on carbon trading when designing and implementing urban policies that promote sustainable development. Additionally, our research contributes to the development of urban policies that can be effectively implemented in both developed and developing regions. • Local government official turnovers are used as the measurement of political uncertainty. • Daily transaction data from four carbon ETS markets (Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei and Guangdong) in China • Considered the probability and proportion of zero transaction day • Logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations • A negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon transaction volume [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper aims at quantifying the factors affecting vegetation growth in the western of Inner Mongolia, and judging the relative contribution of natural factors and man-made factors. • It is obtained through geodetectors (GD) that Rainfall is the most important driving factor, with the q-value of 0.77 and GDP also having a huge impact on vegetation growth, q-value of 0.64. • Different from most studies, human activity also has a positive effect on vegetation growth. • The relative contribution of human activities reached 51.75%, slightly exceeding the influence of natural factors. Vegetation is an essential component of terrestrial ecosystems, and understanding the drivers of vegetation change is of great importance for ecological management. In recent years, vegetation growth has increased under the combined effect of global warming and human activities in Inner Mongolia. The net primary productivity (NPP) was used as an indicator to study the spatial and temporal changes in vegetation in the Qimeng Region (QR). The residual trend analysis method was used to analyze the relative contributions of climate variations (CV) and human activities (HA) to NPP changes across the QR, while their drivers were explored using a geographical detector approach to quantify the driving forces of NPP. The results show that (1) NPP exhibited a fluctuating growth trend from 2003 to 2020, with an overall growth rate of 2.91%/year. (2) Precipitation, GDP and population density were the dominant driving factors for the spatial distribution of NPP. The combined explanatory power of any two dominant factors exceeded the power of any dominant individual factor, and the interaction between climate and human factors had a significant effect on NPP. (3) The change in NPP was influenced by the combined effect of HA and CV, accounting for 37.69% of the total area, with the relative contribution of HA being 51.75%. Finally, the relative contribution of human activities was slightly higher than that of climate change, confirming the initial success of the Grain to Green Program as well as ecological conservation projects. This paper provides a scientific basis for the local government to carry out the conversion of cropland to forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Improving rural household energy efficiency is an important policy issue for climate change mitigation in China. A better understanding of the factors affecting farmers' energy-efficient appliance use behavior can help policymakers design more effective policies. This paper explores the effect of farmers' risk preferences and loss aversion on their energy-efficient appliance use behavior in rural China. Using unique data from a survey and a paired lottery experiment completed by 235 rural household heads in the Dazu District of China, this study finds that the farmers' risk preferences and loss aversion have significant effects on their energy-efficient appliance use behavior. The more risk-averse farmers are less likely to buy or use energy-efficient appliances. The farmers who are more loss averse are more willing to purchase and more likely to use durable energy-efficient appliances. In addition, the farmers' demographic factors (age, gender, education, and family location), their perceptions of climate change adaptation and their trust attitudes have significant effects on their energy-efficient appliance use behavior. This paper contributes to the emerging literature that relates risk preferences and loss aversion in experiments to farmers' energy-efficient appliance use behavior. Highlights • The analysis is based on a unique data set combining a survey and economic experiments. • The average response of our sample is risk averse and loss averse. • The more risk-averse farmers are less likely to use energy-efficient appliances. • The more loss-averse farmers are more willing to use durable energy-efficient appliances. • Farmers' socioeconomic status and trust attitudes affect their use behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A number of empirical methods have been developed to study China's sectoral carbon emissions (CSCE). Measuring these emissions is important for climate change mitigation. While several articles have reviewed specific methods, few attempts conduct a systematic analysis of all the major research methods. In total 807 papers were published on CSCE research between 1997 and 2017. The primary source of literature for this analysis was taken from the Web of Science database. Based on a bibliometric analysis using knowledge mapping with the software CiteSpace, the review identified five common families of methods: 1) environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA), 2) index decomposition analysis (IDA), 3) econometrics, 4) carbon emission control efficiency evaluation and 5) simulation. The research revealed the main trends in each family of methods and has visualized this research into ten research clusters. In addition, the paper provides a direct comparison of all methods. The research results can help scholars quickly identify and compare different methods for addressing specific research questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Over the past few decades, climate change has become a significant problem, the ramifications of which are of concern around the world. Global warming is a long-term process caused by phenomena such as increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration in the atmosphere, increases in rainfall, changes in relative humidity and changes in temperature. Thus, this will aggravate the degradation process of reinforced concrete (RC) structures, leading to the decrease of durability, safety and serviceability. Regarding the durability of concrete structures, carbonation-induced corrosion is definitely a significant and costly source of degradation, directly related to climatic parameters such as CO 2 , temperature and relative humidity. In Paraguay, the lack of control during the construction of buildings often leads to weak structures highly vulnerable to the attack of harmful external agents. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide an analysis of the correlation between real degradation data and a numerical carbonation model for concrete structures in the country. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climatic parameters will increase in the future. For this reason, an analysis of the decreasing performance of these structures caused by climate change will be addressed in this paper. This research aims to choose the most accurate mathematical model that can be applied in Paraguay for the prediction of the service life of concrete structures subjected to carbonation-induced corrosion. For that purpose, parameters and variables of the selected model have been defined and subsequently validated through carbonation tests results carried out in a set of RC structures built in the country. The results of this paper should be considered as a first stage for the further formulation of maintenance strategies, which is highly necessary for Paraguay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Global warming due to the emission of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO 2), has a significant effect on the climate change and has become a widespread concern in the recent years. Carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) strategy appears to be effective in decreasing the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Despite a great progress in this field, there are still major limitations in commercialized the CO 2 capture methods that rely on absorption phenomena. High capital costs of for the CO 2 capture, low absorption and desorption rates (which require large facilities), solvent losses due to evaporation, and the use of corrosive solvents are among main obstructions. Recently, CO 2 capture with ionic liquids (ILs) has appreciably attracted researchers’ attention. The distinct properties of ILs such as negligible vapor pressure and their affinity to capture the CO 2 molecules make them a feasible alternative for currently available solvents including, different amines. This paper covers a brief review of previous engineering and research works on various CO 2 capture techniques, the description of CO 2 capture process using ILs, mechanisms of the CO 2 capture with ILs at molecular level, CO 2 and ILs properties, characterization of the CO 2 /IL systems, impacts of operating and fluids conditions on CO 2 absorption capacity by ILs, and CO 2 solubility and selectivity in ILs. Moreover, the technical and economic aspects of the CO 2 capture with ILs, screening criteria for ILs/CO 2 systems, and important results obtained from previous studies will form the last parts of this manuscript. This review offers a proper/systematic guideline that assists researchers and engineers to comprehensively understand and to effectively design the CO 2 /ILs processes, focusing on the thermodynamic and mass transfer aspects. Highlights • CO 2 capture with ionic liquids (ILs) appears to be a promising strategy in the future. • This review paper describes carbon capture process using ILs, mechanisms, and challenges. • This paper discusses about different characterization tools for ILs/CO 2 systems. • CO 2 capture efficiency is studied at various conditions through parametric sensitivity analysis. • Technical and economic aspects and screening criteria for ILs/CO 2 systems are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change and the global efforts to address it have made environmental considerations increasingly important. Industries and transportation, being major energy consumers, play a significant role in global warming and must reduce their pollutants. This paper presents a bi-objective production routing problem aimed at minimizing the total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and cost, taking into account real-world constraints and data from a single-plant, multi-distribution center, gaseous-pharmaceutical supply chain with a heterogeneous delivery fleet. The modeling takes into account the GHG emissions from the production process of the product being delivered. A branch and cut method is used in combination with multi-objective fuzzy goal programming to solve the problem. The results show that the proposed model reduces total costs while also reducing GHG emissions compared to the current method used in the case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the debate between proponents of green growth and degrowth, the core issue is whether decoupling carbon emissions and resource use from GDP growth is possible, and if so, possible at a rate fast enough to achieve policy goals such as global warming of maximum 1.5 °C or 2 °C. In this paper, the claims by degrowth scholars on the limits of decoupling growth and carbon emissions are critically examined by assessing the economic and climate consequences of their claims. It is claimed that their pessimistic view on decoupling is not based on robust arguments but rather mystifications of what decoupling is. Following the assumptions by leading degrowth scholars – that decoupling (decrease of the emission intensity of GDP) are unlikely to be larger than 4% and that levels of GDP need to converge in a degrowing world – indicates that the 1.5 °C target is ruled out altogether and that in order to reach the 2 °C target, the economies of the global north would have to be reduced with over 90% and for middle income countries with around 70%. This appears as very unlikely to happen. Yet, there might be alternatives, which are discussed by sketching a realist and dynamic theory of decoupling. • The pessimist assumptions on decoupling by some degrowth scholars presuppose an economic collapse of unseen magnitude • Alternatively, stringent climate goals such as 1.5 °C, are not attainable • These pessimist assumptions are, however, not based on robust arguments, and ways to demystify decoupling is discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 0-D/1-D compressor model. • PDSim. • Programming platforms evaluation. Several regulatory measures aimed to mitigate climate change are forcing compressor manufacturers to replace current refrigerants to those with low Global Warming Potential (GWP). New refrigerants need to be evaluated to ensure adequate efficiency for use in modern products. Evaluation can be done heuristically, which is expensive and time-consuming, while a carefully designed simulation model can provide similar outcomes for a significantly reduced cost. This paper presents a comparison between various user-developed and existing reciprocating compressor models to assist in the selection of a suitable modeling platform for a wide-ranging study. The reciprocating compressor is selected because of the simplicity of the model to ensure consistency across different platforms. The user-developed models are developed in MATLABTM and ModelicaTM for the reciprocating compressor. The same compressor is also modeled using existing compressor modeling platforms, PDSim and GT-SuiteTM. The compressor model includes three main components; geometry, compression process and frictional losses. Other sub-models, like valve model and heat transfer model, are also part of the compression process. These platforms are evaluated based on both quantitative and qualitative criteria. ModelicaTM is found to be computationally efficient while GT-SuiteTM took maximum time for simulation among the compared platforms. On a qualitative basis, PDSim is potentially a better platform for compressor optimization; which is also readily available to end user due to its open-source nature and prospects for future model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several biological research studies have shown that the number of individuals of certain species of anurans in a specific geographical region, and the evolution of this number over time, can be used as an indicator of climate change. To detect the presence of anurans, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are usually deployed with the aim of obtaining bio-acoustic information in a set covering numerous locations. However, the identification of the anuran species from a huge number of recordings usually involves an overwhelming task that has to be undertaken by expert and intelligent systems. Previous studies into this issue have proposed several classification techniques with a common approach: they all take into account the sequential characteristic of sounds by considering syllables or other kinds of vocal segments. In noisy sounds, as it is usually the case in recordings made in natural habitats, segmentation of the signal is no straightforward task and may cause low classification accuracy. To override this problem, a new non-sequential approach is proposed in this paper. It is based on considering very small pieces of sounds (frames) each of which is then classified without considering preceding or subsequent information. Up to nine frame-based classifiers are explored in this paper and their performances are compared to the most commonly used sequential classifier: the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Additionally, for featuring the frames, many choices have been described, although the application of the Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs) has probably become the most common method. In this work, an alternative methodology is suggested: the use of a set of MPEG-7 parameters, which offers a normalized solution with a much greater semantic content. The experimental results have shown that the proposed method clearly outperforms the HMM, thereby showing the non-sequential classification of anuran sounds to be feasible. From among the algorithms tested, the decision-tree classifier has shown the best performance with an overall classification success rate of 87.30%, which is an especially striking result considering that the analyzed sounds were affected by a decidedly noisy background. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to shortages of fossil fuels, and the worldwide concern approximately climate change and global warming, biofuels have become an important source of sustainable energy. Several species can be used to produce biofuels such as soybeans ( Glycine max ), oil palm ( Elaeis guineensis ), and Jatropha ( Jatropha curcas L.). Therefore, the objective of this paper was to integrate the information available in the literature and report the most promising strategies for genetic and biotechnological progress in Jatropha. Jatropha has become a potential crop to produce biofuel due to the high oil content found in the seeds, which can be transformed into biofuel. Jatropha has an average seed oil content of 35%, and the oil extracted from the seeds has 24.6% crude protein and 47.2% crude fat. Moreover, Jatropha has several agronomic morphological traits that make it a useful crop for biofuel production and animal feed, such as drought tolerance, rapid growth, and ease of propagation. It can be grown at almost any altitude, and plants can produce for more than 50 years. Additionally, Jatropha oil has good stability to oxidation, low viscosity, a low pour-point, which makes Jatropha oil better than soybean or palm oil. This paper presented an innovative and comprehensive literature review on all agronomic aspects of Jatropha, and the strategies that have been used to select superior genotypes for Jatropha breeding. Several important traits of Jatropha are affected by the environment and new strategies to select superior genotypes are required by breeders. Therefore, genomic wide selection associated with recurrent selection can be an appropriate strategy for Jatropha breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is myriad evidence that global warming is exerting a profoundly disruptive influence on the lifeways of modern native (Yup'ik) communities living in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) delta of southwestern Alaska. Yup'ik subsistence is intimately tied to seasonal change and the ability to accurately predict the availability of plant and animal resources. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that periods of climatic instability such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) may have had a deleterious effect on Yup'ik communities in the past. However, at present there are no palaeotemperature records that document the localised climatic changes of the last millennium in the Y-K Delta region. This lack of data hinders our understanding of the archaeological record from the site of Nunalleq, which is situated at the heart of the delta and was occupied during the LIA. To address this oversight, this paper presents the results of a Coleoptera (beetle) based climate reconstruction from a peat profile in the vicinity of Nunalleq to investigate the magnitude of Late Holocene climatic changes. Using the Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) method, we reconstruct mean summer and winter temperatures from the mid-15th to late-19th centuries. The results indicate that the past environments of Nunalleq were characterised by a climate significantly cooler than the present. The earliest definitive evidence for Little Ice Age cooling dates from the late 16th century, when mean summer temperatures were at least 1.2ᵒC below the modern mean. Temperatures appear to have remained lower than modern until the early 19th century. The coolest Nunalleq record – 1.3ᵒC below the modern mean summer temperatures – is centred on AD 1815, after which there is evidence for climatic amelioration. These data present differences with observations from other regions of Alaska and underline the importance of more local palaeoclimate reconstructions, particularly when interrogating the relationships between past climatic and social change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic growth and development around the world are leading to increasing worldwide demand for energy, whose production still mainly comes from fossil fuels generating large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming and climate change. To mitigate climate change, the European Union implemented an energy policy strategy that encourages firms to implement sustainable energy systems. This could generate investment opportunities in energy efficiency and renewable energy projects around the world for European mutual funds. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to analyze the financial performance of energy and renewable energy mutual funds using conditional and unconditional models. To this end, we have a sample of 4496 mutual funds commercialized in Europe in the period 2007–2018. Our results indicate that renewable energy mutual funds perform similarly to the market using conditional models. However, they underperform their conventional peers using a specialized market benchmark, reaching similar performance to black energy funds. While the total expense ratio negatively affects renewable energy financial performance, other fund characteristics, such as size or Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) certification, do not affect it. • This study analyzes the financial performance of energy and renewable energy funds. • This study implements conditional and unconditional models. • Renewable energy funds perform similarly to the market using conditional models. • Renewable energy funds underperform their conventional peers in unconditional models. • The total expense ratio negatively affects renewable energy financial performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (Köppen, Extended Köppen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed. • A systematic analysis of climate classifications with RCMs and two high resolution GCMs is presented. • Three classification methods are used to illustrate the differences between models and observations. • Current high-resolution GCMs can provide climate classifications with the same accuracy as those from RCMs. • Uncertainties in modeling precipitation persist for large parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biscuits are a major product category in the global confectionary sector. Despite this, their environmental impacts are poorly characterised. Therefore, this paper sets out to evaluate the life cycle environmental sustainability of the following widely-consumed types of biscuit, both at the product and sectoral levels: crackers, low fat/sugar, semi-sweet, chocolate-coated and sandwich biscuits with chocolate or vanilla cream. The results obtained through life cycle assessment demonstrate that, in addition to being healthier, low fat/sugar biscuits have the lowest impacts across most of the 18 categories considered. Chocolate-coated biscuits are environmentally the least sustainable. The most significant life cycle stage for all types is the raw materials production, causing 41%–61% of the total impacts, with flour, sugar and palm oil being the key hotspots. Replacing palm with rapeseed oil would improve five impacts but worsen another five, including a 34% increase in agricultural land occupation and marine eutrophication. Therefore, the cultivation and production of palm oil, rather than its replacement, should be targeted for improvements. The second most crucial stage is manufacturing, contributing up to 54% of the impacts, followed by transport with up to 35%. Reducing energy consumption by 25% in manufacturing would reduce primary energy demand by 8%–12%, fossil fuel depletion by 9%–12% and global warming potential by 6%–9%. The latter would increase by 55% if land use change related to cocoa was involved, despite a very small amount of cocoa in the biscuits (∼1%). The analysis at a sectoral level in the UK, the leading consumer of biscuits in Europe, reveals that biscuits contribute 7.4% of primary energy demand and 0.5% of greenhouse gas emissions of the whole UK food sector. These results can help guide manufacturers in mitigating the hotspots in the supply chain and consumers in selecting environmentally more sustainable biscuits. • The environmental sustainability of six types of biscuit is evaluated for the first time. • Low fat/sugar biscuits have the lowest impacts and chocolate-coated the highest. • Global warming potential of chocolate biscuits is 55% higher with land use change. • Flour, sugar and palm oil are the key hotpots, followed by biscuits manufacturing. • Biscuits contribute 7.4% of energy demand and 0.5% of GWP of the UK food sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper concerns ice dams and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Karakoram. Some 146 events are identified, including 30 major disasters. Large downstream populations and major infrastructure are threatened. Risk factors differ from recent reports of other Himalayan GLOFs associated with glacier recession and global warming. Ice dams are largely or entirely active ice, put in place by advancing glaciers. Climate change is a factor, but the ice cover in the Karakoram has been sustained, and even some increase in mass. Surge-type glaciers comprise or affect~70% of our inventory. The most frequent, large GLOFs come from local clusters of glaciers in five sub-basins, given special attention here. In four there were new ice dams formed since 2008 and two generated dangerous GLOFs. An urgent need arises to track short-term ice and lake behavior and how surge dynamics may be involved. Satellite images and DEMs are employed in cross-correlation feature tracking and elevation change respectively. The glaciers of interest all exhibit irregular movement, including recent advances, but with great variability and no clear relation to climatic fluctuations. • Study updates inventory of ice dams and related GLOFs in the Karakoram. • Study reports recent evidence of surface displacement and elevation changes of glaciers involved in ice dam generation. • Surge-type glaciers comprise or affect ~70% of inventory of ice dams and related GLOFs. • Four glaciers formed new ice dams since 2008, two (Kyagar, Khurdopin) generating dangerous GLOFs. • The studied glaciers exhibit irregular movement, but with great variability and no clear relation to climatic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-latitude permafrost peatlands are sensitive to global warming, and understanding their paleohydrological evolution is critical for assessing future hydrological and environmental changes. This paper presents a diatom record from a peat deposit covering the past 3300 years to reconstruct the moisture and acidity conditions in the Tuqiang permafrost peatland in the northern Greater Khingan Mountains of northeast China. Our findings are integrated with previously published records of plant macrofossils, palynology, and geochemistry from the same profile. From 3300 to 2800 cal yr BP, planktonic and benthic diatoms were equally abundant, indicating relatively high moisture conditions, while the low abundance of acidophilous diatoms reflects relatively high pH during this interval. Pollen data show dominance by sedges with input from the surrounding Pinus forest, while LOI data and lithology suggest that the site was a non-peat accumulating wetland. During the period 2800–1100 cal yr BP, the dominance of planktonic diatoms indicates a wetter local environment, concurrent with the dominance of peat-forming sedges (Eriophorum), indicating the development of a peatland. Between 1100 and 500 cal yr BP, a short-lived increase in acidophilous diatoms (Eunotia) marks a decrease in pH. Since 500 cal yr BP, the dominance of benthic diatoms reflects a drier environment, while a vegetation shift from an Eriophorum -dominated rich fen to a Sphagnum- and Ericaceae-dominated poor fen. An increase in Eunotia diatoms prior to the Sphagnum peak may indicate that diatoms are more sensitive to local acidified habitats than moss. Peatland development in the northern Greater Khingan Mountains was likely induced by the onset of a cooler and wetter climate starting at approximately 2800 cal yr BP, a scenario supported by regional paleoclimate records. Since 700 cal yr BP, the peatland has been affected by both anthropogenic activities and climatic changes, as a drying climate and intensified human activities around the study area reduced diatom species diversity and peat accumulation. Under the background of future global warming and enhanced human activities, the decreasing species diversity and carbon accumulation rate of peatlands in high-latitude permafrost regions need more attention. • Diatoms can indicate local moisture and acidity in permafrost peatlands. • Diatoms are likely more sensitive to microhabitats than bryophytes. • TQ peatland formed after 2800 cal yr BP caused by the cooler and wetter climate. • Rich-fen shifted to poor-fen which co-influenced by deforestation and dry climate at LIA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Both autogenous and autonomous self-healing mechanisms of concrete are reviewed. • Various factors and their correlation to the healing mechanisms are comprehensively compiled. • Various parameters and crack width are all important for healing efficiency. • The use of water to facilitate all healing mechanisms is paramount for triggering healing processes. • Further studies are identified. The increasing awareness of climate change and global warming has pushed industries to be more conscious of their environmental impact, especially in the construction industry with the main contributor being concrete. Concrete is a material that is in very high demand in the construction industry for structural applications. However, it's a material with a major concern with the challenges of microcracking. New technology has seen the development of self-healing material, using novel techniques to bring cementitious materials back to its original state. This paper reviews and evaluates the novel techniques adopted by the researchers in the field to achieve a self-healing material, with the main focus being on the factors influencing the mechanisms of autogenous healing and bacteria-based healing. Various parameters including bacteria type, pH, temperature, nutrient, urea, and Ca2+ concentration, bacteria concentration and application, pre-cracking, healing condition, cement type, and crack width are all important for healing efficiency, although the use of water to facilitate both autogenous and ureolytic bacteria healing mechanism is paramount for the triggering of healing processes. This study thoroughly presents various factors and their correlation to the healing mechanisms of autogenous healing and ureolytic bacteria healing. Further studies are identified to better understand the exact mechanism taking place and which healing process contributed to how much of the healing, and this review could serve as an informative platform for these pursues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy model, a systematic data-intensive multi-objective framework replicating the energy sector of the country or globe, constitutes of energy resource supply, energy consumption sector-by-sector, energy transformation technologies, greenhouse gas emission and energy pricing. Considering the atypical weather pattern yearly and geographical diversity, the challenges and benefits of designing an energy model have been summarized. The paper has documented the tremendous jeopardy of drastic climate change, energy crisis on the global economy, requirement for transition to low carbon economy and rural electrification which have been impetus for the evolution of legitimate energy model. Special emphasis has been provided on the types of energy models that have been developed and practiced throughout the world followed by a comparative analysis of a few. The requirement to configure a unique energy model in India followed by certain recommendations has been proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various scientific studies have investigated the causal link between solar activity (SS) and the earth’s temperature (GT). Results from literature indicate that both the detected structural breaks and existing trend have significant effects on the causality detection outcomes. In this paper, we make a contribution to this literature by evaluating and comparing seven trend extraction methods covering various aspects of trend extraction studies to date. In addition, we extend previous work by using Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) - an advanced non-parametric causality detection technique to provide evidence on the effect of existing trend in global temperature on the causality detection outcome. This paper illustrates the use of a method to find the most reliable trend extraction approach for data preprocessing, as well as provides detailed analyses of the causality detection of each component by this approach to achieve a better understanding of the causal link between SS and GT. Furthermore, the corresponding CCM results indicate increasing significance of causal effect from SS to GT since 1880 to recent years, which provide solid evidences that may contribute on explaining the escalating global tendency of warming up recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European Commission has set clear targets for 2020 regarding energy and environment policy; these targets include 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions against the 1990 levels. It is believed that adopted strategy has encouraged the renewable energy applications during the last two decades. Moreover, measurement deviations of carbon dioxide flux occurring in respiration chambers has been seen of a great importance to explain the biochemical parameters affecting the climate change issue. This is attributed on many occasions to chamber design constraints and the way they are coupled with the studied site location. This is illustrated by external disturbances whereby when they happen while gas measurements are taken measurement deviations become more evident. This paper surveys the different soil physical, biological and geotechnical parameters and links them to meteorological ones. Consequently it explores their direct and indirect effects to the produced soil efflux. Furthermore this paper proposes several soil temperature models according to the studied case constraints to see what affects soil efflux production. Moreover a clear understanding of what affects the measurement process was achieved through surveying all the internal and external pressure parameters and how they influence the chamber in relation to time. The conclusion is that respiration chamber designers need to preserve chamber internal temperature and pressure to be equal to the outer atmosphere for the case of stabile external conditions. For the case of unstable external conditions design counter measures are incorporated. Furthermore the appropriate gas sensor needs to be selected professionally with emphasis on the importance of installation location inside the chamber. Likewise soil bacterial type and soil temperature also has an influence on efflux production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transport is a significant and growing contributor to climate change. To stay within ‘safe’ global warming guardrails requires substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. This represents a global political consensus, but there is evidence that current legislation in the transport sector is not significant enough to achieve medium- and longer-term reduction goals. In focusing on the European Union, this paper investigates the perspectives of twelve policy officers in three Directorates-General (MOVE, CLIMA, ENV) of the European Commission with regard to their understanding of mitigation goals and timelines, responsibilities for policy development and implementation, and perceived efficiencies of these policies to achieve climate objectives in the transport sector. Results indicate diverging and common views on climate policy goals and political responsibilities, as well as barriers to policy-making, including lack of political leadership on climate change mitigation, resistance from member states, the favoring of economic growth over cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, pressure from industry and lobby groups, preferential treatment of aero- and automobility over more sustainable transport modes, policy implementation delays, insufficient forecasting and monitoring tools, and an overreliance on technologies to contribute to emission reductions. In offering a view inside the ‘black box’ of transport policy-making, the paper reveals fundamental institutional (structural) and individual (agency-based) barriers that will have to be overcome if significant emission cuts in the transport sector are to be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Globally, population weighting substantially changes degree-days rate of change. • Choice of base temperature strongly influences degree-day calculation. • For typical base temperatures, heating degree-days are falling at twice the rate that cooling degree days are increasing. • Within countries, heterogeneity in population changes determines relative changes in heating and cooling degree-days. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving global increases in temperature. This rise will likely lead to an increase in demand for cooling in the coming years. However, increasing temperatures are not the main explanatory factor for why the world is moving towards more cooling. This paper compares population and area-weighted cooling and heating degree-days derived using ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature, to show that population growth in warmer parts of the world drives cooling demand globally. The analysis shows that mean global area-weighted heating degree-days have fallen 8.46 °C days/year, whereas population-weighted heating degree-days have fallen by 12.5 °C days/year. At the same time, mean global area-weighted cooling degree-days have risen by 3.0 °C days/year, while population-weighted cooling degree-days have risen at 6.0 °C days/year. By using sub-country analysis, this paper shows that population-weighted degree-days can substantially differ from area-weighted degree-days. Finally, the findings highlight that the choice of heating and cooling degree-day base temperature is the most important parameter in the variability of degree-days and will need to be understood better in order to accurately account for future heating and cooling energy demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As reported in previous studies, global warming has caused a clear uptick in dryland areas since the 1950s. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of drylands has become particularly evident over the past 40 years, with dry/wet patterns showing significant differences prior to and after 1980. This paper uses the Precipitation/Potential evaporation (P/PET) index to analyze changes occurring in the dry/wet structure of various spatial and temporal scales during 1948–2008. The results show the emergence of complex aridity changes on a regional scale. While aridity generally decreased in the drylands of Asia during 1948–2008, the change in aridity was opposite in the drylands of the American and African continents between 1948 and 1979 and 1980–2008. Specifically, drylands in the American continent showed a wetting tendency during 1948–1979 and a drying tendency during 1980–2008, whereas drylands in the African continent underwent significant drying during 1948–1979 followed by subtle wetting in 1980–2008. Even though rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasingly important cause of the recent global drying trend, especially in East and Central Asia, the changes in aridity in the American and African drylands is attributable to natural variabilities in precipitation associated with multi-decadal surface sea temperature changes, along with large-scale circulation patterns. • Dry/wet patterns in dryland areas show significant differences in the decades prior to and after 1980. • The change in aridity was opposite in American and African drylands between 1948–1979 and 1980–2008. • Aridity changes in American and African drylands are closely related to multi-decadal changes in surface sea temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The advantage of accurate forecasts is that it solves the main problem related to renewable energies: their variability. Indeed, while renewable energies has not yet replaced fossil fuels, in spite of the efforts of many governments, it is because of their intermittent nature, hence the importance of prediction in this field. The new approach for energy prediction that we propose in this paper, is founded on the analysis of the dynamical behavior of the photovoltaic production of the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of Beni Mellal, Morocco. It consists in performing the phase space reconstruction, which allowed us later to build a database for the input of the neural network and thus take into account the dynamics of the system in the forecasting process. Then, in search of more precision, we introduce the wavelet transformation, to simplify the database constructed from phase space reconstruction. Finally, comparing between the predictions and the actual observations confirmed the efficiency of our approach. Highlights • PV production forecast has an major role in its integration into electricity mix and thus in the fight against climate change. • In this work, we propose a new approach for forecasting, based on the exploitation of the phase space reconstruction. • The proposed model is a hybrid method combining the phase space reconstruction, DWT method and recurrent neural network. • The method is tested on real observations to confirm the efficiency of our approach. • Comparison between predictions and actual data confirmed the effectiveness of our approach given the improved results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 0.73–1.03 g N-NH 3 kg−1 TS of sewage sludge was released to off-gases under 160 °C. • The mass released corresponds to 41–58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sludge. • The global warming potential of the recovery process is 4.1 kg CO 2 -Equiv. kg−1 N. Thermal drying and consequent incineration of sewage sludge result in an absolute loss of an important macronutrient – nitrogen. To fulfill the growing food demand, humanity relies more on industrial fixation of nitrogen, primarily via the Haber-Bosch process. The present paper examines the nitrogen release during continuous thermal drying of municipal sewage sludge and its consequent recovery for fertilization. Furthermore, the possibility of nitrogen recovery from condensate is assessed. Finally, the study assesses the global warming potential of the proposed nitrogen recovery system and compares it with the baseline system manufacturing fertilizers from industrially fixed nitrogen. The results of the drying experiments showed that 0.73–1.03 g N-NH 3 kg−1 total solids of sewage sludge was released to off-gases during its continuous thermal drying under 160 °C, which corresponds to 41–58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sewage sludge subjected to thermal drying. The global warming potential of the nitrogen recovery was 28% lower compared to that of the commercial fertilizer production of equivalent properties: 4.1 kg CO 2 -Equiv. kg−1 N versus 5.7 kg CO 2 -Equiv. kg−1 N. Still, the sensitivity analysis showed that the results might traverse and lead to a higher global warming potential of 6.2 kg CO 2 -Equiv. during the nitrogen recovery process under certain process parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate change has caused worldwide concern due to its adverse effects on the global ecosystem, economy and society. In this study, a new integrated framework was proposed for assessing the national vulnerability to climate change by considering both the sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Then, a first assessment of the spatial-temporal change in national vulnerability from 1996 to 2008 was provided from the global perspective. Finally, 171 countries were grouped, and hotspots of climate change were identified. Based on the results, the earth is more vulnerable than invulnerable, and the average rate of increase in the vulnerability index from 1996 to 2008 was 0.30%. African countries were identified as hotspots of vulnerability and instability in the changing climate, and 8 groups were clustered based on the key influencing index of 171 countries. The results of this new framework are consistent with the previous Fragile State Index and World Risk Index but provide more details and quantitative vulnerability analysis. The methods and results presented in this paper could be used as references for climate change adaption and policy at the global scale. Graphical abstract Image 106550 Highlights • A new method was proposed for assessing the vulnerability to climate change. • The spatial-temporal change in national vulnerability was provided. • Urrent earth become more vulnerable to climate change than ever before. • Key influencing factor were identified for effective adaption to climate change. • Countries were grouped, and hotspots of climate change were identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Global warming has already had a significant impact on social ecosystems. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is characterized by a cryosphere, is also recognized to have a profound influence on regional and global climate systems, as well as the ecological economy. Therefore, research on the cryosphere is of significant importance. This paper comprehensively reviews the current status and recent changes of the cryosphere (e.g., glacier, snow cover, and frozen ground) in the TP from the perspectives of observations and simulations. Because of enhanced climate warming in the TP, a large portion of glaciers have experienced significant retreat since the 1960s, with obvious regional differences. The retreat is the smallest in the TP interior, and gradually increases towards the edges. Glacier simulations are comparatively few and still under development. Snow cover is a highly sensitive element of the cryosphere and decreases with large interdecadal variations from the 1960s to the 2010s in general. Simulations of snow cover mostly focus on the mutual feedback between the snow cover anomaly, climate and atmospheric circulation. In situ observations and simulations both indicate that the mean annual temperature of frozen ground increases, causing permafrost thaw and degradation and decreasing the seasonal freeze depth of seasonally frozen ground. Under future climate warming, the cryospheric elements in the TP will continue to diminish on the whole. Studies of climate and the cryosphere are ongoing. To date, the lack of observations is the biggest challenge on the TP, resulting in a divergence of cryosphere dynamics and its simulation being a bottleneck. To overcome these issues, a strategy that combines sets of in situ and remote sensing measurements and improved numerical models is of great importance for achieving breakthroughs with respect to research on the TP cryosphere and its interaction with climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]