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Increasingly, agricultural land managers are seeking new approaches for understanding the potential challenges posed by sediment connectivity across catchments from source to sink, and implications for delivery of ecosystem services determined by the condition of natural capital assets. Connectivity indices have been frequently applied in the calculation of risk in spatial and temporal assessment frameworks, and tools which facilitate rapid modelling and mapping of soil erosion risk using broad-scale environmental data are therefore of considerable interest. One such indicative tool is SCIMAP (Sensitive Catchment Integrated Mapping and Analysis Platform), which highlights where sediment runoff is likely to occur and be delivered to a watercourse by simulating the generation of saturation-excess overland flow. In this paper, we examine the utility of SCIMAP for exploring the changing nature of soil erosion risk as a function of land use change in the lower Rother catchment in West Sussex, southern England through the formulation of a suite of foresight scenarios informed by knowledge of historical land cover conditions and current management practice. The study area has previously been investigated at the field scale in terms of locating and quantifying sources of erosion and areas where in-stream sedimentation manifests. Output risk values from all simulations were quantified, mapped and compared to highlight areas of greatest/lowest risk. An area was identified immediately north of the main Rother channel that consistently exhibited greatest risk across each land cover scenario. We explore (i) the spatial and temporal variation in modelled risk and (ii) the utility value of SCIMAP for agricultural land-managers and policy-makers in generating robust risk estimates of soil erosion and in-stream sedimentation, and challenges with model verification in a foresight context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant loss of valuable resources and increasing burdens on landfills are often associated with a lack of proper planning in waste management and resource recovery strategy. A sustainable waste management model is thus urgently needed to improve resource efficiency and divert more waste from landfills. This paper proposes a comprehensive system model using stock-and-flow diagram to examine the current waste management performance and project the future waste generation, treatment and disposal scenarios, using England as a case study. The model comprises three integrated modules to represent household waste generation and collection; waste treatment and disposal; and energy recovery. A detailed mass and energy balance has been established and waste management performance has been evaluated using six upstream and downstream indicators. The base case scenario that assumes constant waste composition shows that waste to landfills can be reduced to less than 10% of the total amount, by 2035. However, it entails greater diversion of waste to energy-from-waste facilities, which is not sustainable and would incur higher capital investment and gate fees. Alternative case scenarios that promote recycling instead of energy recovery result in lower capital investment and gate fees. Complete elimination of the food and organic fraction from the residual waste stream will help meet the 65% recycling target by 2035. In light of the need for achieving a more circular economy in England, enhancing material recovery through reuse and recycling, reducing reliance on energy-from-waste and deploying more advanced waste valorisation technologies should be considered in future policy and planning for waste management. • A stock-and-flow model for waste management in England has been developed. • Resource recovery potential has been proposed as a more robust indicator. • Material recovery and valorisation should be promoted in lieu of energy-from-waste. • Diversion of waste to incineration incurs higher capital investment and gate fees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life cycle assessment is a multidisciplinary framework usually deployed to appraise the sustainability of various product or service supply-chains. Over recent decades, its use in the agri-food sector has risen sharply, and alongside this, a wide range of methodological advances have been generated. Spatial-life cycle assessment, defined in the current document as the interpretation of life cycle assessment results within a geographical nature, has not gone unexplored entirely, yet its rise as a sub-method of life cycle assessment has been rather slow relative to other avenues of research (e.g., including the nutritional sciences within life cycle assessment). With this relative methodological stagnation as a motivating factor, our paper combines a process-based model, the Catchment Systems Model, with various life cycle impact assessments (ReCiPe, Centre for Environmental Studies and Environmental Product Declaration) to propose a simple, yet effective, approach for visualising the technically feasible efficacy of various on-farm intervention strategies. As water quality was the primary focus of this study, interventions reducing acidification and eutrophication potentials of both arable and livestock farm types in the Southeast of England were considered. The study site is an area with a marked range of agricultural practices in terms of intensity. All impacts to acidification potential and eutrophication potential are reported using a functional unit of 1 ha. Percentage changes relative to baseline farm types, i.e., those without any interventions, arising from various mitigation strategies, are mapped using geographical information systems. This approach demonstrates visually how a spatially-orientated life cycle assessment could provide regional-specific information for farmers and policymakers to guide the restoration of certain waterbodies. A combination of multiple mitigation strategies was found to generate the greatest reductions in pollutant losses to water, but in terms of individual interventions, optimising farm-based machinery (acidification potential) and fertiliser application strategies (eutrophication potential) were found to have notable benefits. [Display omitted] • A novel yet data intensive spatial-life cycle assessment framework is proposed. • Farm types with and without agri-environmental interventions are assessed. • Eutrophication and acidification potentials are calculated for each farm type. • Optimising machinery usage reduces water impacts through decreased sediment loss. • Spatial-life cycle assessment is an effective tool for visualising environmental impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes changing perceptions of biological conditions due to a loss of historical knowledge. Perceptions of 'normal' environmental conditions are continually updated, leading to underestimation of the true magnitude of long-term ecological change and potential setting of unambitious management targets. There has been speculation as to the presence and impacts of SBS within conservation management since Daniel Pauly's seminal paper in 1995, which outlined the potential effects of SBS on target-setting in fisheries management. Previous case studies have suggested that SBS may not occur in management, despite empirical evidence of SBS in other systems. In this study, 44 professionals and volunteers involved in bird species management, monitoring and target-setting across England were interviewed. Interviews asked for personal perceptions of current, maximum and target abundance, long-term trends, and perceived conservation priority for six bird species. Using paired tests, this study found no significant effect of experience on perceptions of current, maximum or target abundance of all species, despite differences in national abundance and trends, and differences in participant experience. Further power analysis indicated that even if SBS was statistically detectible with a larger sample, the practical implications of the syndrome would be minimal due to small effect sizes. Finally, the effect of experience on individual perceptions of species conservation priority varied between species, with generational amnesia in the form of 'lifting baselines' suggested for only one of the six species. This study suggests that shifting baseline syndrome may not be as significant a threat in conservation management as first thought. • Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes changing perceptions of biological conditions. • SBS has potential impacts on the ambitiousness of conservation target-setting. • No significant effect of experience on perceptions of species abundance or trends. • Power analysis indicates limited detectability of SBS in the sample. • Multiple factors influence managers' choice of conservation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]