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In a previous paper [4] an estimate of the 4-variate product moment E[{x[sub I] - E(x[sub I])} {x[sub j] - E(x[sub j])} {x[sub k] - E(x[sub k])} {x[sub h] - E(x[sub h])}] was obtained. This estimate had a slight bias, as we pointed out. In this paper an unbiased estimate of the 4-variate product moment is obtained. Asymptotic results for the 3-variate and 4-variate product moments and their estimates are also obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the simple estimate formed by the ratio of the sample means, the estimate obtained by the statistician M.H. Quenouille's method of bias reduction, the unbiased estimate of the statisticians L.A. Goodman and H.O. Hartley and the estimate proposed by H.O. Hartley are compared. These estimates are respectively denoted by t1, t2, t3 and t4. Mean square errors of these estimates are compared under J. Durbin's model. In practice g has often been found to lie between 0 and 2. In this paper expressions for the Mean Square Errors of these estimates are obtained for general values of n, g and h, and they are compared for finite values of n when g = 0, 1 and 2. When g = 0. The method of obtaining exact expressions for the Mean Square Errors (MSE's) of these estimates is similar to that of J.N.K. Rao and J.T. Webster. After a considerable amount of simplification, the following expressions for the biases and MSE's are obtained. When t=0, Durbin compared t1 with t2, and Rao compared t1 with t4.

In this paper a method is developed for estimating the parameters in the multivariate normal distribution in which the missing observations are not restricted to follow certain patterns as in most previous papers. The large sample properties of the estimators are discussed. Equivalence with maximum likelihood estimators has been established for a subclass of problems. The results of some simulation studies are provided to support the theoretical development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1967 Committee on Publications, chaired by David L. Wallace, found that many American Statistical Association members desired more review and survey papers. These have been hard to come by and so as the author's last act before leaving office, decided to provide a short survey paper on some related ideas in a field where nearly all of the statisticians sometimes work — that of contingency tables. These ideas are largely available in literature and yet they have not often been put together, though statisticians I. J. Good's monograph and Leo Goodman's many papers form good sources. But the author's paper is not intended as a review of the literature, only as a survey of one set of ideas about estimation in the analysis of contingency tables. The author fears that the first act of most social scientists upon seeing a contingency table is to compute chi-square for it. Sometimes this process is enlightening, sometimes wasteful, but sometimes it does not go quite far enough. The author collected 500 samples of writing published about 1961.

This paper describes a method of estimating the number of marriages during an inter-censal period among a group of never-married persons. Two alternative procedures are suggested: the first based on data on the never-married category and the second based on data on the ever-married category. The essential data needed are marital distributions by quinquennial age-groups from two successive censuses. The marital data from the 1951 and 1961 censuses of India are used to discuss the methodological problems involved in the estimation of marriage frequencies and in the construction of nuptiality tables based on them. Marriage and death are taken as the two attrition factors for decrement of single population. Gross and Net Attrition Tables for the single population of India are constructed for each sex. Section 5 describes various nuptiality measures derived from the Attrition Tables. It is suggested that the approach developed in this paper can be utilized for reliable marital and, subsequently, fertility projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the problem of obtaining efficient estimates for the parameters of a system of M regression equations. The disturbance terms of this system are assumed to be related by both serial and contemporaneous correlation. Under the further assumption that the serial correlation is a first order autoregressive process, the paper develops an estimator that is consistent and has the same asymptotic normal distribution as the Aitken estimator which assumes the covariance matrix to be known. The paper concludes with a discussion of some alternative covariance specifications and points out certain difficulties with the standard single equation procedures for handling autoregressive schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper in this Journal, Rothenberg, Fisher and Tilanus [1] discuss a class of estimators of tile location parameter of the Cauchy distribution, taking the form of the arithmetic average of a central subset, of the sample order statistics. They show that the average of roughly the middle quarter of the ordered sample has minimum asymptotic variance within this class, and that asymptotically it eliminates about. 36 per cent of the efficiency loss of the median (the most commonly used estimate,r) in comparison to the maximum likelihood estimator (m.l.e.). Of course both the m.l.e, and the best linear unbiased estimator based on the order statistics (BLUE) achieve full asymptotic efficiency in the Cramer-Rao sense and there can be no dispute about the relative merits of the three estimators asymptotically, or about the inferiority of the median (with asymptotic efficiency 8/pi[sup 2] * This character cannot be converted in ASCII text) 0.8 compared with about 0.88 for the estimator of Rothenberg et al.). In any practical situation however, we will be concerned with estimation from samples of finite size and asymptotic properties will not necessarily give any guidance here. We are essentially concerned with two points in assessing the relative merits of estimators in small samples, their case of application and "small-sample efficiency" which is conveniently measured as the ratio of the Cramer-Rao lower bound to the variance of the estimator. In this paper various estimators of the location of the Cauchy distribution arc compared in these two respects for samples of up to 20 observations. The small-sample properties of the m.l.e. have been extensively discussed elsewhere (Barnett [2]) and relevant results are summarized where necessary. The main purpose of the paper is to discuss general linear estimators based on the order statistics, and to assess their utility in the present context. Since this paper was prepared a further interesting 'quick estimator', b [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given N points independently drawn from the uniform distribution on (0, 1), let p[sub n], be the size of the smallest interval that contains n out of the N points; let n[sub p], be the largest number of points to be found in any subinterval of (0, 1) of length p. This paper uses a result of Karlin, McGregor, Barton and Mallows to determine the distribution of n[sub p] for p = 1/k, k an integer. The paper gives simple determinations for the expectations and variances of p[sub n], for all fixed n > (N + 1)/2, and of n[sub 1/2]. The distribution and expectation of n[sub p] are estimated and tabulated for the cases p = 0.1(0.1)0.9, N =2(1)10. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently Professors T. J. Rothenberg, F. M. Fisher, and C. B. Tilanus published a paper proposing the class of trimmed means as estimators of the location parameter of the Cauchy distribution [5]. They showed that the asymptotic sampling variance of the estimators in this class is essentially minimized by using the middle 24% of the sample order statistics. The corresponding estimate has an asymptotic relative efficiency to the best estimator for complete samples (A.R.E.) of .87796 as compared to an A.R.E. of .81057 for the sample median. In this paper a few "quick estimators" are considered as estimators for the location parameter of the Cauchy Distribution. A "quick estimate" is a linear combination (a weighted average) of one or more order statistics. Our goal is to find a simple estimator, i.e. an estimator based on only a few order statistics, which has an A.R.E. of at least 90%. We found an estimator based on five order statistics which is considerably better than the optimum trimmed mean (using the middle 24% of the sample order statistics) and much better than the sample median. The A.R.E. of the optimum censored estimate with censored fractiles .38 and .62 is also found, and a comparison between the trimmed, censored, and proposed estimators is made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a population of N units, it is required to draw a sample of n distinct units in such a way that the probability for the ith unit to be in the sample is proportional to its 'size' x. From the alternative methods of achieving this we consider here only the so-called systematic method which, to the best of our knowledge, was first developed by W. G. Madow (1949): The units in the population are listed in a 'particular' order, their x, accumulated and a systematic selection of n elements from a 'random start' is then made on the accumulation. In a more recent paper (H. O. Hartley and J. N. K. Rao (1962) ) an asymptotic estimation theory (for large N) associated with this procedure was developed for the case when the order of the listed units is random. In this paper we draw attention to certain properties of Madow's estimator: We utilize the fact that with systematic sampling the total number of different samples is N (rather than ([This eq. cannot be change in char.]) as with completely random sampling). This simplification in the definition of the variance of the estimator in repeated sampling enables us to identify the exact variance of Madow's estimator with a 'between sample mean square' in a special analysis of variance (see section 4) and compare it with the variance of the pps estimator in sampling with replacement as well as in other sampling procedures. We also develop two approximate methods of variance estimation (see section 5). We pay particular attention to the case when the units are listed in the order of their size. With this particular arrangement our method can be described as 'systematic with random start' and the gain in precision that we accomplish has of course, analogues in systematic sampling with equal probabilities employing ratio estimators in which there is a relation between the ratio ri =yi/Xi and xi Compared with other methods the present procedure combines the advantage of ease of systematic sample selection with the availability of exact variance formulas for any n and N. Moreover, it usually leads to a more efficient estimate. Its shortcoming resides in the fact that the estimation of the variance is based on certain assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the author will talk about researcher R.A. Fisher's contributions to statistics. It is well-known that his work in genetics was of comparable status. It is largely represented by his book "The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection," though in his subsequent work his further association with ecological and experimental studies in evolutionary genetics, and his share in the development of studies in the human blood groups, might especially be recalled. Fisher's contributions to statistics began with a paper in 1912 advocating the method of maximum likelihood for fitting frequency curves, although the first paper of substance was his 1915 paper in the journal "Biometrika," on the sampling distribution of the correlation coefficient. Fisher tried to pose problems of analysis as the reduction and simplification of statistical data. He put forward his well-known concept of amount of information in estimation theory, such that information might be lost, but never gained, by analysis. His concept has been of great practical value, especially in large sample theory.

This paper treats essentially the first derivative of an estimator viewed as functional and the ways in which it can be used to study local robustness properties. A theory of robust estimation "near" strict parametric models is briefly sketched and applied to some classical situations. Relations between yon Mises functionals, the jackknife and U-statistics are indicated, A number of classical and new estimators are discussed, including trimmed and Winsorized means, Huber-estimators, and more generally maximum likelihood and M-estimators, Finally, a table with some numerical robustness properties is given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decision-theoretic approach to point estimation involves the choice of an estimate to minimize the expected loss associated with the estimate. The purpose of this paper is to indicate the influence of risk aversion on point estimates for classes of payoff functions including the piecewise linear and quadratic payoff functions. Increased risk aversion results in a point estimate closer to zero for a quadratic pay. off function and a lower estimate with a piecewise linear payoff function, for example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the author expresses his views on rotational and parallel traverses in the rapid integration of geographic areas. In an interesting report, James P.Latham has drawn attention to the possibilities of high-speed electronic scanning equipment in the rapid integration of irregular geographical areas. The basis of the traverse method is that the sum of intercepts along a traverse line is used to estimate the proportion of the total area occupied by the phenomena being intercepted. Results obtained from the simulated traverses confirm the findings of Latham's important paper on the general utility that one expects to find from rapid scanning of geographic patterns.

In experimental designs with randomized blocks, estimates of the inter-block variance often have few degrees of freedom since they depend only on the block averages (the inter-block information). These degrees of freedom are further reduced by the number of parameters appearing in the inter-block information. However, some parameters also appear in the intra-block information, and thus allow two independent estimators. The difference of these two estimators provides additional information about the inter-block variance. This paper shows how this extra information may be recovered to improve tests of hypotheses concerning inter-block parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large class of useful multivariate recursive time series models and estimation methods has appeared in the engineering literature. Despite the interest and utility which this recursive work has when viewed as an extension of regression analysis, little of it has reached statisticians working in regression. To overcome this we (a) present the relevant random-beta regression theory as a natural extension of conventional fixed-beta regression theory and (b) derive the optimal recursive estimators in terms of the extended regression theory for a typical form of the recursive model. This also opens the way for further developments in recursive estimation, which are more tractable in the regression approach and will be presented in future papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes several methods of estimating parameters in stable distributions. All the methods involve sample characteristic functions. One of the methods which is based upon the method of moments is treated in some detail. Asymptotic normal distributions for the proposed moment estimators are provided. Moreover, all methods provide consistent estimators. The estimation problem is treated for both univariate and multivariate stable distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on a nomogram for the "Student"-fisher t test. A nomogram is given for estimating the probability (P) for a given value of the "Student"-Fisher t test. W.S. Gosset, an employee of the Guiness brewing company in Dublin, published papers in 1908 in which he correctly solved three problems: the probable error of a mean, the distribution of the mean divided by its estimated standard deviation and the distribution of the estimated correlation coefficient between independent variates. Later "Student" and economist R.A. Fisher calculated tables of the relevant t distribution and Fisher gives a table of t and probabilities, corresponding to various degrees of freedom. Fisher and F. Yates, scholar provide in addition a column for P. It seemed that presentation of the P, degrees of freedom, t relationship in the form of a nomogram would be advantageous. It makes possible a fairly exact estimate of probabilities less than 0.0001 and makes it possible to get an estimate of P for any value of t from 1 to 65, instead merely of selected values.

This paper uses a family of bivariate extreme-value distributions to estimate the probability of a large exceedance of a random variable given that a certain other random variable not independent of the first has exceeded a certain value. A simple method of reasonably good efficiency is given for estimating a bivariate extreme-value distribution from independent bivariate samples. The method is used to analyze the performance of a spacecraft command receiver which has an indication of data quality so that commands likely to be in error can be rejected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem considered in this paper is one of allocating a predetermined aggregate among its components. An example from econometrics is the allocation among various competing consumption items of a consumer's budget, the total size of which is usually taken as determined outside the allocation framework. Under the specification adopted, one may treat any choice of (m -- 1) of the m components of the predetermined aggregate as stochastic, fitting the allocation equations for these (m--1) variables by Aitken's principle. The parameters of the equation excluded from the estimation procedure may be found by differencing; the estimates obtained in this way are shown to be invariant under any choice of which (m--1) equations are fitted. Further, this invariance property is distribution free. These results hold good whether the aggregate is simple or weighted. As an alternative interpretation, moreover, one may regard this problem simply as one of fitting m equations containing a common regressor under an exact linear constraint relating this regressor to the m regressands of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximum likelihood and other BAN estimators have been shown to possess certain optimal asymptotic properties in estimating the parameters of probability distributions satisfying specific regularity conditions. The subject of non-regular estimation is concerned with problems in which these conditions do not hold. In many such problems, classical-lower bounds on the variance of unbiased estimators, such as the Cramer-Rao bound, lead to the trivial result V(t) * (These characters cannot be converted in ASCII text) 0, where t is any unbiased estimator. A number of alternative bounds for application in the non-regular case have been derived. In this paper previous results of this type are reviewed and an additional bound is given. The specific applications of interest involve estimation of a location parameter. Applications of the bounds to the exponential, uniform and Pearson Type III distributions are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem considered in this paper is how to combine estimators of the common mean from two samples corresponding to normal populations with different unknown variances. Attention is confined to the case where it is known that the variance of one specific population exceeds that of the other. Three classes of unbiased estimators are presented, one of which is based on a preliminary test of significance regarding the ratio of the population variances. The gain achieved by utilizing the knowledge that the ratio of variances exceeds one is investigated by comparing the efficiencies of these estimators with an estimator presented by Graybill and Deal [1] in which no restriction on the ratio of variances is present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper it is assumed that, using a sample survey, two factors are to be studied, comparisons between the "levels" of the factors are of greatest interest, and there is "interaction" between the factors. Attention is concentrated on situations in which only two levels of each factor are to be compared, but extensions to more complex surveys are discussed. Assuming independent sampling, optimal sample size allocations are obtained. Where these allocations require recourse to programming algorithms, approximate solutions are given. If independent sampling is not feasible, a double sampling procedure is suggested. To indicate how sub-sampling from the first phase sample is to be carried out, a sampling rule (possessing optimal conditional precision properties) is derived. Then, a procedure to determine the optimal first phase sample size is given. Finally, it is demonstrated that this double sampling procedure can be applied to estimation of the (finite) population mean when double sampling with stratification is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this note we examine the bias and small sample efficiency of certain estimators for the parameters of a linear regression function when some observations are missing. The estimators studies in this paper were suggested by the large sample study reported in this issue of the Journal. We conclude that our asymptotically unbiased estimators of beta and mu[sub y|x], have negligible bias in sample sizes as small as n = 20, and that our asymptotically unbiased estimator of sigma[sup 2] may have an 8% bias when n = 20. The small sample and asymptotic efficiencies of these estimators are nearly the same for n = 60; when n = 20 the difference between these two efficiencies depends on the correlation coefficient rho and the pattern of missing observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with certain aspects of variance-component estimation for the unbalanced two-way completely-random classification where the numbers of observations in the subclasses are treated as random variables not necessarily independent of some of the random effects of the model. General results are given on the expectations of two commonly-used estimators of the vector of variance components. Numerical approximations are presented for these expectations for one sub-family of the family of all possible joint distributions of the subclass numbers and the random effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The least squares estimator of a regression coefficient beta is vulnerable to gross errors and the associated confidence interval is, in addition, sensitive to non-normality of the parent distribution. In this paper, a simple and robust (point as well as interval) estimator of beta based on Kendall's [6] rank correlation tau is studied. The point estimator is the median of the set of slopes (Y[sub I]--Y[sub I])/(t[sub I]--t[sub I]) joining pairs of points with t[sub 1] is not equal to t[sub 1], and is unbiased. The confidence interval is also determined by two order statistics of this set of slopes. Various properties of these estimators are studied and compared with those of the least squares and some other nonparametric estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with proportional stratified sampling in the situation where the estimation variable X is difficult and expensive to observe, while the possibly erroneous stratification variable Y is easy and inexpensive to get at. The usually biased estimate [Multiple line equation(s) cannot be represented in ASCII text] is compared with the unbiased estimate [Multiple line equation(s) cannot be represented in ASCII text] where the P[sub I] are stratum weights and y[sub I] and x[sub I] are means of the units sampled from the I:th stratum. The two estimates are similar in that they utilize information from only those population units that make up the sample. While mu[sub a] is the more inexpensive estimate, mu[sub b] is usually preferable if one judges by the size of the mean square error, which, among other things, depends on the number of strata and the location of the stratum boundaries. In particular, the properties of mu[sub a] and mu[sub b] are discussed in connection with an example involving the bivariate normal distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are presented for estimating transition probabilities when data in the form of aggregated proportions are available. The probability function for the observed proportions is assumed to have a multinomial distribution under the Lexis scheme. The multivariate beta distribution is used as the prior probability density function in formulating the Bayesian estimator. The results of some Monte Carlo experiments provide some evidence on the sampling properties of several alternative estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a Monte Carlo study of the accuracy of an approximation to the power of the chi-square goodness of fit test with small but equal expected frequencies. Various combinations of sample size, number of groups, and alpha level are considered, and in most instances the actual power of the test is estimated to be less than the nominal power. The degree of accuracy appears to be more related to the size of the sample than to the size of the expected frequencies. The following rule of thumb is offered for obtaining crude estimates of the actual power from the nominal power for sample sizes from 10 to 50: The actual power of the test equals about eight-tenths of the nominal power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with estimating the location and the scale parameters of the extreme value distribution when the sample size is very large, using sample quantiles. An estimator is given for the location parameter when the scale parameter is known, based on one or more (up to 15) order statistics. Also given is an estimator for the scale parameter when the location parameter is known, built on two order statistics. An iterative procedure is utilized to estimate the parameters when both are unknown, using two order statistics. The problem of estimating the percentage point is also dealt with, and a comparison with Lieblein's method is included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Let X[sub i1], X[sub i2],..., X[sub iota n], I=1, 2, be a pair of random samples from populations which are normally distributed with means theta[sub iota], and common known variance tau[sup 2]. The problem is to estimate the function psi(theta[sub 1], theta[sub 2]) = maximum (theta[sub 1], theta[sub 2]). In this paper we consider five different estimators (or sets of estimators) for psi(theta[sub 1], theta[sub 2]) and evaluate their biases and mean square errors. The estimators are (I) psi(X[sub 1], X[sub 2]), where X[sub I] is the sample mean of the ith sample; (ii) the analogue of the Pitman estimator, i.e. the a posteriori expected value of psi(theta[sub 1], theta[sub 2]) when the generalized prior distribution is the uniform distribution on two dimensional space; (iii) a class of estimators which are generalized Bayes with respect to generalized priors which are products of uniform and normal priors; (iv) hybrid estimators, i.e. those which estimate by (X[sub 1] + X[sub 2])/2 when |X[sub 1] -X[sub 2]| is small, and estimate by psi(X[sub 1], X[sub 2]) when |X[sub 1] - X[sub 2]| is large; (v) maximum likelihood estimator. The bias and mean square errors for these estimators are tabled, graphed, and compared. Also the invariance properties of these estimators are discussed with a rationale for restricting to invariant estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to examine the mean square error criterion for rejecting or adopting restrictions on the parameter space in a regression model, and to develop a uniformly most powerful testing procedure for the criterion. We present a tabulation of critical points for the test for one restriction and selected points of the power function. The mean square error criterion suggests a framework for thinking about the problem of multicollinearity in a linear model. To this end we present some examples to illustrate the linkage of the mean square error criterion with multicollinearity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper gives numerical comparisons of the efficiency of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Grouping Estimators in simple linear regression. The disturbances are assumed to have unequal variances, and an assumption is made about the form of this heteroscedasticity. It is shown that for some types of heteroscedasticity a Grouping Estimator can be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents three upper bounds for the variance of an estimator, based on observations selected with varying probabilities from a finite population, the elements of which are ranked with respect to the Y values. Accordingly, the usefulness of these bounds relates to the pre-enumeration analysis where one may well know the intended probabilities and joint probabilities corresponding to the sampling scheme but does not know the Y values. If, however, one can make a conservative guess at the largest Y value, one can use these bounds. Some examples are included to illustrate the theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, successive sampling procedures using multi-stage sampling design have been developed. It is found that it is generally advantageous to retain a fraction of the sample selected on previous occasions for improving the estimate of a mean on the most recent occasion. This type of partial replacement may sometimes be recommended for estimating a mean over all occasions. This is specially true if the experimenter is interested in not only obtaining an overall estimate for the entire period but also in separate estimates for each occasion. In a sampling enquiry repeated on three occasions it has been observed that for estimating the mean on the third occasion it would be preferable to repeat the same sample fraction from one occasion to the next, while for estimating the mean over all occasions the sample fraction repeated on the second occasion should not be repeated on the third but in its place a sub-sample from the sample selected afresh on the second occasion should be retained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formulas for the variances of weighted least squares estimators calculated with estimated weights based on equal replicate numbers are derived in this paper. Results are obtained for the two cases of multivariate and univariate error distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper carries on work in [2] and [4] on the asymptotic effects of small specification error in simultaneous equation estimation. The specification errors considered are inherent in the approximate nature of econometric models. It is shown that for any parameter and small enough specification error, the probability limits of two-stage least squares and limited-information maximum-likelihood, while different, lie on the same side of the true parameter value, the difference between them being of the second order of smalls relative to the effects of the specification error on either one of them. A method of consistently estimating the sign of the difference of the effects of specification error on the two estimators is given and a procedure suggested for choosing an estimator to reduce those effects. Two relatively simple examples are worked out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The robustness properties of four estimators of location are studied with respect to eight distribution types. For each type, the probability density function is symmetric about the median and the range of variate is infinite. For the entire class of distributions, the estimator with the highest guaranteed efficiency is the mean of the middle fifty percent of the sample. This study supplements the paper by Crow and Siddiqui (1967). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While distribution-free procedures are often appropriate when testing statistical hypotheses, they may become complicated or involve loss of power when the data are grouped. For rank tests the ties caused by grouping are generally broken either by using a randomization procedure or averaging the tied ranks. In this paper the power loss due to equi-spaced grouping (in terms of Pitman asymptotic relative efficiency) is investigated for some commonly used tests, for each method of tie-breaking. The tests considered are Wilcoxon's and Mood's tests for the two-sample problem, Mann's test for randomness, and Pitman's independence test. It is shown how the power loss depends on the width of the grouping intervals and the distribution of the data, and some numerical studies are given. The results seem to indicate that the power loss is small even for a sizable group interval, and that it may be preferable to break ties by randomization than by averaging ranks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the problem of choosing among point estimators on the basis of their small sample properties is discussed from the sampling point of view. The indeterminacy of most Monte Carlo studies is analysed and resolved within the framework of statistical decision theory. A first order autoregressive model is worked through in detail both for its own sake and to illustrate how a complete Monte Carlo study might be done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is claimed that the reasons for using matrices of derivatives, in appropriate situations, are as compelling as those for using matrices. This paper provides basic material for such use. Different types of matrix derivatives are defined and illustrated. Simple and easy techniques are then derived and are shown to be applicable to a considerable collection of matrix functions. Applications are made to such problems as establishing matrix integrals from scalar ones, determining maximum likelihood estimates for complex likelihood functions, optimizing matrix functions when there are matrices of side conditions, and evaluating the Jacobians of certain classes of transformations. The emphasis is on simplicity of derivation and on breadth of application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to a discussion of an iterative procedure for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator of the covariance matrix for multivariate experiments in which measurements on certain components of a normal vector random variable are intentionally omitted in corresponding subgroups of the experimental units. The proposed algorithm, which is based on the Newton-Raphson method, is outlined in detail in Section 5. A special design is included to illustrate the procedure and a few areas of application are indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Revenue Act of 1954 permitted entrepreneurs for the first time to make use of the double declining balance (DDB) and sum of the year's digits (SYD) methods of depreciation in place of the customary straight line method (SL). The tax advantages from using such methods are well known.(n1) In spite of these advantages, however, the accelerated methods in many cases appear to have been adopted only slowly over the years. Clearly any attempt to determine the effect on investment of such provisions must rely on knowledge of the extent of their use. Unfortunately there is no direct information available, nor do estimates exist, for the two-digit manufacturing industries on the fraction of investment in each year since 1954 written off by accelerated methods. In this paper an attempt is made simultaneously to estimate such figures on an annual basis and to fit a learning curve to them.(n2) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contains a generalization of the Gauss Markov Theorem based on the properties of the generalized inverse of a matrix as defined by Penrose. A minimum variance vector estimate x of a parameter vector x is given for the linear model of less than full rank. Since linear unbiased estimates may not always exist for this case the unbiased constraint is replaced by the more general constraint that the norm ||E(x) --x|| is minimized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the properties of the minimum variance unbiased (M.V.U) and maximum likelihood (M.L.) estimators of the reliability functions of systems composed of two subsystems connected in series. The study falls into two parts, one for the Poisson case and one for the exponential case. In each of these cases the situations are distinguished between, where the two subsystems are identical and situations subsystems are different. In the Poisson case under minimum variance unbiased estimators a system A is considered which is composed of two subsystems connected in series. Failure time points of the subsystem follow a Poisson process with intensity. An experiment is performed on n independent replicates of each of the considered subsystems over a period of length. Under the exponential case, a system A is considered, same as Poisson case which consists of two subsystems connected in series. Failure time points of the two subsystems follow a Poisson process. Independent observations are available on the interfailure time lengths; namely, the life-lengths of the subsystems.

The paper presents the results of an inquiry concerning the small sample relative efficiency of maximum likelihood and best unbiased estimators of reliability functions of one-unit systems. Three cases are considered: The Poisson, exponential, and normal (standard deviation known). Two kinds of relative efficiency functions are studied. The first kind consists of the common ratio of the Cramer-Rao lower bound of the variances of unbiased estimators, to the mean-square-error of the considered estimator. The second kind is a new type of a relative efficiency function, which is called 'the closeness relative efficiency function.' This function is defined as the ratio of the probabilities that the maximum likelihood and the beat unbiased estimators yield estimates in a prescribed neighborhood of the unknown reliability value. A substantial part of the study is devoted to the derivation of the required moments of the estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we review the literature on the problem of handling multivariate data with observations missing on some or all of the variables under study. We examine the ways that statisticians have devised to estimate means, variances, correlations and linear regression functions from such data and refer to specific computer programs for carrying out the estimation. We show how the estimation problems can be simplified if the missing data follows certain patterns. Finally, we outline the statistical properties of the various estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Given a population of N units, it is required to draw a sample of n distinct units in such a way that the probability pi[sub i], (i = 1, ..., N) for the ith unit to be in the sample is proportional to its 'size' x[sub i]. One way to achieve this is as follows: The N units in the population are listed in a random order and their x[sub i] are cumulated and a systematic selection of n elements from a "random start" is then made on the cumulation. The mathematical theory associated with this procedure has been presented in [1], where with the help of asymptotic theory, compact expressions for the variance of the estimate of the population total are derived. These expressions contain probabilities P[sub ii]'(i not equal to i'; i, i' = 1, ... , N) that units i and i' both are in the sample. For n = 2, N = 3 and n = 2, N = 4, exact formulae are derived in [1], but for other n and N only approximate formulae are obtained. It is the purpose of this paper to derive an exact formula for P[sub ii]' for any values of n and N. The argument makes use of the solution given in [1] for the case n = 2 and N = 4. The new formula for n = 2 is derived in Section 1 and illustrated in Section 2 by a numerical example for N = 10. An exact formula for general n is derived in Section 3 and examplified in Section 4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a procedure for estimating the components in an economic time series assuming a constant seasonal component and a trend which may be estimated locally by a polynomial. The procedure is to estimate the trend and seasonal components for each consecutive two-year time span of quarterly data using conventional least-square techniques. Thus, for each quarter in the series, except the first seven and last seven, there are eight estimates for each of these components. A weighted average of these estimates is obtained using weights such that the variance of the average is a minimum. This procedure is used to adjust male unemployment in the United States for seasonal variation, and the results compare favorably with the official adjustment of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we obtain a multivariate generalization of the inverted beta distribution. Properties of this distribution and its connection with the multivariate Student-t distribution are discussed. Two asymptotic formulae for approximating the related probability integral are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. Application of this distribution to a problem in Bayesian inference is given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]