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Peer review is the gold standard for scientific communication, but its ability to guarantee the quality of published research remains difficult to verify. Recent modeling studies suggest that peer review is sensitive to reviewer misbehavior, and it has been claimed that referees who sabotage work they perceive as competition may severely undermine the quality of publications. Here we examine which aspects of suboptimal reviewing practices most strongly impact quality, and test different mitigating strategies that editors may employ to counter them. We find that the biggest hazard to the quality of published literature is not selfish rejection of high-quality manuscripts but indifferent acceptance of low-quality ones. Bypassing or blacklisting bad reviewers and consulting additional reviewers to settle disagreements can reduce but not eliminate the impact. The other editorial strategies we tested do not significantly improve quality, but pairing manuscripts to reviewers unlikely to selfishly reject them and allowing revision of rejected manuscripts minimize rejection of above-average manuscripts. In its current form, peer review offers few incentives for impartial reviewing efforts. Editors can help, but structural changes are more likely to have a stronger impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a bibliometric, citation network-based method for assessing the social validation of novel research, and applies this method to the development of high-throughput toxicology research at the US Environmental Protection Agency. Social validation refers to the acceptance of novel research methods by a relevant scientific community; it is formally independent of the technical validation of methods, and is frequently studied in history, philosophy, and social studies of science using qualitative methods. The quantitative methods introduced here find that high-throughput toxicology methods are spread throughout a large and well-connected research community, which suggests high social validation. Further assessment of social validation involving mixed qualitative and quantitative methods are discussed in the conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on coupled networks, taking node load, capacity and load redistribution between two networks into consideration, we propose functionally identical coupled networks, which consist of two networks connected by interlinks. Functionally identical coupled networks are derived from the power grid of the United States, which consists of many independent grids. Many power transmission lines are planned to interconnect those grids and, therefore, the study of the robustness of functionally identical coupled networks becomes important. In this paper, we find that functionally identical coupled networks are more robust than single networks under random attack. By studying the effect of the broadness and average degree of the degree distribution on the robustness of the network, we find that a broader degree distribution and a higher average degree increase the robustness of functionally identical coupled networks under random failure. And SF-SF (two coupled scale-free networks) is more robust than ER-ER (two coupled random networks) or SF-ER (coupled random network and scale-free network). This research is useful to construct robust functionally identical coupled networks such as two cooperative power grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The assessment of bone age and skeletal maturity and its comparison to chronological age is an important task in the medical environment for the diagnosis of pediatric endocrinology, orthodontics and orthopedic disorders, and legal environment in what concerns if an individual is a minor or not when there is a lack of documents. Being a time-consuming activity that can be prone to inter- and intra-rater variability, the use of methods which can automate it, like Machine Learning techniques, is of value. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this paper is to present the state of the art evidence, trends and gaps in the research related to bone age assessment studies that make use of Machine Learning techniques. METHOD: A systematic literature review was carried out, starting with the writing of the protocol, followed by searches on three databases: Pubmed, Scopus and Web of Science to identify the relevant evidence related to bone age assessment using Machine Learning techniques. One round of backward snowballing was performed to find additional studies. A quality assessment was performed on the selected studies to check for bias and low quality studies, which were removed. Data was extracted from the included studies to build summary tables. Lastly, a meta-analysis was performed on the performances of the selected studies. RESULTS: 26 studies constituted the final set of included studies. Most of them proposed automatic systems for bone age assessment and investigated methods for bone age assessment based on hand and wrist radiographs. The samples used in the studies were mostly comprehensive or bordered the age of 18, and the data origin was in most of cases from United States and West Europe. Few studies explored ethnic differences. CONCLUSIONS: There is a clear focus of the research on bone age assessment methods based on radiographs whilst other types of medical imaging without radiation exposure (e.g. magnetic resonance imaging) are not much explored in the literature. Also, socioeconomic and other aspects that could influence in bone age were not addressed in the literature. Finally, studies that make use of more than one region of interest for bone age assessment are scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer around the world, and it represents the main cause of death in the USA. Surgical treatment is the optimal therapeutic strategy for resectable non-small cell lung cancer. The principal factor for long-term survival after complete resection is the anatomic extension of the neoplasm. However, other factors also have adverse effects on operative mortality, and influence long-term outcome. In this paper we propose an algorithmic solution for the estimation of 5-years survival rate in lung cancer patients undertaking pulmonary resection. Materials and methods: We address the issue of survival analysis through decision-making techniques based on fuzzy and soft set theories. We develop an expert system based on clinical and functional data of lung cancer resections in patients with cancer that can be used to predict the survival of patients. Results: The evaluation of surgical risk in patients undertaking pulmonary resection is a primary target for thoracic surgeons. Lung cancer survival is influenced by many factors. The computational performance of our algorithm is critically analyzed by an experimental study. The correct survival classification is achieved with an accuracy of 79.0%. Our novel soft-set based criterion is an effective and precise diagnosis application for the determination of the survival rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on recent contributions inferring financial interconnectedness from market data, our paper provides new insights on the evolution of the US financial industry over a long period of time by using several tools coming from network science. Relying on a Time-Varying Parameter Vector AutoRegressive (TVP-VAR) approach on stock market returns to retrieve unobserved directed links among financial institutions, we reconstruct a fully dynamic network in the sense that connections are let to evolve through time. The financial system analysed consists of a large set of 155 financial institutions that are all the banks, broker-dealers, insurance and real estate companies listed in the Standard & Poors’ 500 index over the 1993–2014 period. Looking alternatively at the individual, then sector-, community- and system-wide levels, we show that network sciences’ tools are able to support well-known features of the financial markets such as the dramatic fall of connectivity following Lehman Brothers’ collapse. More importantly, by means of less traditional metrics, such as sectoral interface or measurements based on contagion processes, our results document the co-existence of both fragmentation and integration phases between firms independently from the sectors they belong to, and doing so, question the relevance of existing macroprudential surveillance frameworks which have been mostly developed on a sectoral basis. Overall, our results improve our understanding of the US financial landscape and may have important implications for risk monitoring as well as macroprudential policy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fish consumption in Mexico is considered low (around 12 kg per person per year) and non-homogeneously distributed across the country. One of the reasons for this situation is the scarcity of wholesale selling sites. In this context, the Mercado del Mar (MM), located in Guadalajara city, Jalisco, is the second biggest wholesale fish market in Mexico, with a distribution of about 500 tons per day and a variety of about 350 different species of fish. In this paper, we argue that MM has accumulated social capital, which is formed from two main resources: buyer and seller relationships, and reputation. Specifically, the MM manages a broad and intensive interaction among business actors and the already achieved reputation allows the MM to adapt to market changes. To validate our hypotheses, an empirical study was conducted in 2015 by means of interviews to fish wholesalers in the MM and a sample of their suppliers and buyers. For simplicity we have only considered fresh water fish. We have followed snow-ball sampling as the survey strategy. Results show that the MM has responded to fish market dynamics organizing a complex network of buyers and suppliers whose relationships can be explained in the form of strong and weak ties. At the same time, reputation has been the central resource to build this social capital and also gives place to market transactions. Additionally, the strategic position of Guadalajara city and the well-connected routes have facilitated fish bulking and distribution in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The social functions of urbanized areas are highly dependent on and supported by the convenient access to public transportation systems, particularly for the less privileged populations who have restrained auto ownership. To accurately evaluate the public transit accessibility, it is critical to capture the spatiotemporal variation of transit services. This can be achieved by measuring the shortest paths or minimum travel time between origin-destination (OD) pairs at each time-of-day (e.g. every minute). In recent years, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data has been gaining popularity for between-station travel time estimation due to its interoperability in spatiotemporal analytics. Many software packages, such as ArcGIS, have developed toolbox to enable the travel time estimation with GTFS. They perform reasonably well in calculating travel time between OD pairs for a specific time-of-day (e.g. 8:00 AM), yet can become computational inefficient and unpractical with the increase of data dimensions (e.g. all times-of-day and large network). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm that is computationally elegant and mathematically efficient to address this issue. An open-source toolbox written in C++ is developed to implement the algorithm. We implemented the algorithm on City of St. George’s transit network to showcase the accessibility analysis enabled by the toolbox. The experimental evidence shows significant reduction on computational time. The proposed algorithm and toolbox presented is easily transferable to other transit networks to allow transit agencies and researchers perform high resolution transit performance analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we extend some usual techniques of classification resulting from a large-scale data-mining and network approach. This new technology, which in particular is designed to be suitable to big data, is used to construct an open consolidated database from raw data on 4 million patents taken from the US patent office from 1976 onward. To build the pattern network, not only do we look at each patent title, but we also examine their full abstract and extract the relevant keywords accordingly. We refer to this classification as semantic approach in contrast with the more common technological approach which consists in taking the topology when considering US Patent office technological classes. Moreover, we document that both approaches have highly different topological measures and strong statistical evidence that they feature a different model. This suggests that our method is a useful tool to extract endogenous information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roadway elevation data is critical for a variety of transportation analyses. However, it has been challenging to obtain such data and most roadway GIS databases do not have them. This paper intends to address this need by proposing a method to extract roadway elevation data from Google Earth (GE) for transportation applications. A comprehensive accuracy assessment of the GE-extracted elevation data is conducted for the area of conterminous USA. The GE elevation data was compared with the ground truth data from nationwide GPS benchmarks and roadway monuments from six states in the conterminous USA. This study also compares the GE elevation data with the elevation raster data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset (USGS NED), which is a widely used data source for extracting roadway elevation. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used to assess the accuracy and the test results show MAE, RMSE and standard deviation of GE roadway elevation error are 1.32 meters, 2.27 meters and 2.27 meters, respectively. Finally, the proposed extraction method was implemented and validated for the following three scenarios: (1) extracting roadway elevation differentiating by directions, (2) multi-layered roadway recognition in freeway segment and (3) slope segmentation and grade calculation in freeway segment. The methodology validation results indicate that the proposed extraction method can locate the extracting route accurately, recognize multi-layered roadway section, and segment the extracted route by grade automatically. Overall, it is found that the high accuracy elevation data available from GE provide a reliable data source for various transportation applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ancestral state reconstruction in Bayesian phylogeography of virus pandemics have been improved by utilizing a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) framework. Recently, this framework has been extended to model the transition rate matrix between discrete states as a generalized linear model (GLM) of genetic, geographic, demographic, and environmental predictors of interest to the virus and incorporating BSSVS to estimate the posterior inclusion probabilities of each predictor. Although the latter appears to enhance the biological validity of ancestral state reconstruction, there has yet to be a comparison of phylogenies created by the two methods. In this paper, we compare these two methods, while also using a primitive method without BSSVS, and highlight the differences in phylogenies created by each. We test six coalescent priors and six random sequence samples of H3N2 influenza during the 2014–15 flu season in the U.S. We show that the GLMs yield significantly greater root state posterior probabilities than the two alternative methods under five of the six priors, and significantly greater Kullback-Leibler divergence values than the two alternative methods under all priors. Furthermore, the GLMs strongly implicate temperature and precipitation as driving forces of this flu season and nearly unanimously identified a single root state, which exhibits the most tropical climate during a typical flu season in the U.S. The GLM, however, appears to be highly susceptible to sampling bias compared with the other methods, which casts doubt on whether its reconstructions should be favored over those created by alternate methods. We report that a BSSVS approach with a Poisson prior demonstrates less bias toward sample size under certain conditions than the GLMs or primitive models, and believe that the connection between reconstruction method and sampling bias warrants further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to estimate peer influence in video gaming time among adolescents. Using a nationally representative sample of the U.S. school-aged adolescents in 2009–2010, we estimate a structural model that accounts for the potential biases in the estimate of the peer effect. Our peer group is exogenously assigned and includes one year older adolescents in the same school grade as the respondent. The peer measure is based on peers’ own reports of video gaming time. We find that an additional one hour of playing video games per week by older grade-mates results in .47 hours increase in video gaming time by male responders. We do not find significant peer effect among female responders. Effective policies aimed at influencing the time that adolescents spend video gaming should take these findings into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents data from the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies with a focus on the interrelationships among health information seeking behavior (HISB), and health status or use of preventive health measures for U.S. adults both with and without a high school diploma. Key results of ordinal and binary logistic regression analyses indicated that, after controlling for demographic factors, (1) adults with a high school diploma use more text-based health information sources while adults without a high school diploma use more oral sources, (2) using the Internet as a source of health information is more strongly related to reporting excellent/very good health status than having a high school diploma, (3) those without a high school diploma who use the Internet report the largest increase in health status over any other health information source, and (4) for those with learning disability or vision problem, a high facility in reading English is an important predictor of whether the Internet is used as a health information source. The Internet appears to play a key role in both enhancing health status and enabling use of preventive measures for those with and without a high school diploma; although, individuals without a high school diploma who use the Internet for health information derive substantial benefit in health status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, university-industry collaborations in China and the USA are analyzed in terms of co-authored publications indexed in the Web of Science (WoS). Results show a wide gap between China and the USA: Chinese universities are much less active in collaborations with industry in terms of either publication productivity or collaboration intensity. In selecting local and foreign industrial partners, however, more variation exists among Chinese universities than among US universities. The US system is domestically oriented more than that of China. In the USA, the intensity of university-industry collaboration is determined by research quality, whereas in China this is not the case. In both China and the USA, distance is not critical for the establishment of domestic university-industry collaboration. A high correlation is found between productivity indicators including total publications and university-industry co-authored publications. However, the productivity indicators are less correlated with the intensity of university-industry collaboration. Large research universities with strong ties to domestic industry play critical roles in both national publication systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to determine whether a game-theoretic model between an insurer and a healthcare practice yields a predictive equilibrium that incentivizes either player to deviate from a fee-for-service to capitation payment system. Using United States data from various primary care surveys, we find that non-extreme equilibria (i.e., shares of patients, or shares of patient visits, seen under a fee-for-service payment system) can be derived from a Stackelberg game if insurers award a non-linear bonus to practices based on performance. Overall, both insurers and practices can be incentivized to embrace capitation payments somewhat, but potentially at the expense of practice performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. Materials and methods: Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms’ performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. Results: Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. Discussion: The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. Conclusion: Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC’s autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual soil moisture estimates are useful to characterize trends in the climate system, in the capacity of soils to retain water and for predicting land and atmosphere interactions. The main source of soil moisture spatial information across large areas (e.g., continents) is satellite-based microwave remote sensing. However, satellite soil moisture datasets have coarse spatial resolution (e.g., 25–50 km grids); and large areas from regional-to-global scales have spatial information gaps. We provide an alternative approach to predict soil moisture spatial patterns (and associated uncertainty) with higher spatial resolution across areas where no information is otherwise available. This approach relies on geomorphometry derived terrain parameters and machine learning models to improve the statistical accuracy and the spatial resolution (from 27km to 1km grids) of satellite soil moisture information across the conterminous United States on an annual basis (1991–2016). We derived 15 primary and secondary terrain parameters from a digital elevation model. We trained a machine learning algorithm (i.e., kernel weighted nearest neighbors) for each year. Terrain parameters were used as predictors and annual satellite soil moisture estimates were used to train the models. The explained variance for all models-years was >70% (10-fold cross-validation). The 1km soil moisture grids (compared to the original satellite soil moisture estimates) had higher correlations (improving from r2 = 0.1 to r2 = 0.46) and lower bias (improving from 0.062 to 0.057 m3/m3) with field soil moisture observations from the North American Soil Moisture Database (n = 668 locations with available data between 1991–2013; 0-5cm depth). We conclude that the fusion of geomorphometry methods and satellite soil moisture estimates is useful to increase the spatial resolution and accuracy of satellite-derived soil moisture. This approach can be applied to other satellite-derived soil moisture estimates and regions across the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Reproducible research is increasingly gaining interest in the research community. Automating the production of research manuscript tables from statistical software can help increase the reproducibility of findings. Logistic regression is used in studying disease prevalence and associated factors in epidemiological studies and can be easily performed using widely available software including SAS, SUDAAN, Stata or R. However, output from these software must be processed further to make it readily presentable. There exists a number of procedures developed to organize regression output, though many of them suffer limitations of flexibility, complexity, lack of validation checks for input parameters, as well as inability to incorporate survey design. Methods: We developed a SAS macro, %svy_logistic_regression, for fitting simple and multiple logistic regression models. The macro also creates quality publication-ready tables using survey or non-survey data which aims to increase transparency of data analyses. It further significantly reduces turn-around time for conducting analysis and preparing output tables while also addressing the limitations of existing procedures. In addition, the macro allows for user-specific actions to handle missing data as well as use of replication-based variance estimation methods. Results: We demonstrate the use of the macro in the analysis of the 2013–2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a complex survey designed to assess the health and nutritional status of adults and children in the United States. The output presented here is directly from the macro and is consistent with how regression results are often presented in the epidemiological and biomedical literature, with unadjusted and adjusted model results presented side by side. Conclusions: The SAS code presented in this macro is comprehensive, easy to follow, manipulate and to extend to other areas of interest. It can also be incorporated quickly by the statistician for immediate use. It is an especially valuable tool for generating quality, easy to review tables which can be incorporated directly in a publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioinformatics has become an indispensable part of life science over the past 2 decades. However, bioinformatics education is not well integrated at the undergraduate level, especially in liberal arts colleges and regional universities in the United States. One significant obstacle pointed out by the Network for Integrating Bioinformatics into Life Sciences Education is the lack of faculty in the bioinformatics area. Most current life science professors did not acquire bioinformatics analysis skills during their own training. Consequently, a great number of undergraduate and graduate students do not get the chance to learn bioinformatics or computational biology skills within a structured curriculum during their education. To address this gap, we developed a module-based, week-long short course to train small college and regional university professors with essential bioinformatics skills. The bioinformatics modules were built to be adapted by the professor-trainees afterward and used in their own classes. All the course materials can be accessed at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate species delimitation and description are necessary to guide effective conservation of imperiled species, and this synergy is maximized when multiple data sources are used to delimit species. We illustrate this point by examining Drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake), a large, federally-protected species in North America that was recently divided into two species based on gene sequence data from three loci and heuristic morphological assessment. Here, we re-evaluate the two-species hypothesis for D. couperi by evaluating both population genetic and gene sequence data. Our analyses of 14 microsatellite markers revealed 6–8 genetic population clusters with significant admixture, particularly across the contact zone between the two hypothesized species. Phylogenetic analyses of gene sequence data with maximum-likelihood methods suggested discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear markers and provided phylogenetic support for one species rather than two. For these reasons, we place Drymarchon kolpobasileus into synonymy with D. couperi. We suggest inconsistent patterns between mitochondrial and nuclear DNA are driven by high dispersal of males relative to females. We advocate for species delimitation exercises that evaluate admixture and gene flow in addition to phylogenetic analyses, particularly when the latter reveal monophyletic lineages. This is particularly important for taxa, such as squamates, that exhibit strong sex-biased dispersal. Problems associated with over-delimitation of species richness can become particularly acute for threatened and endangered species, because of high costs to conservation when taxonomy demands protection of more individual species than are supported by accumulating data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the 2007-2009 financial crisis, governments around the world passed laws that marked the beginning of new period of enhanced regulation of the financial industry. These laws called for a myriad of new regulations, which in the U.S. are created through the so-called notice-and-comment process. Through examining the text documents generated through this process, we study the formation of regulations to gain insight into how new regulatory regimes are implemented following major laws like the landmark Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Due to the variety of constituent preferences and political pressures, we find evidence that the government implements rules strategically to extend the regulatory boundary by first pursuing procedural rules that establish how economic activities will be regulated, followed by specifying who is subject to the procedural requirements. Our findings together with the unique nature of the Dodd-Frank Act translate to a number of stylized facts that should guide development of formal models of the rule-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) is a large double-stranded DNA virus that causes genital sores when spread by sexual contact and is a principal cause of viral encephalitis in newborns and infants. Viral glycoproteins enable virion entry into and spread between cells, making glycoproteins a prime target for vaccine development. A truncated glycoprotein D2 (gD2) vaccine candidate, recently tested in the phase 3 Herpevac Trial for Women, did not prevent HSV-2 infection in initially seronegative women. Some women who became infected experienced multiple recurrences during the trial. The HSV US7, US8, and US9 genes encode glycoprotein I (gI), glycoprotein E (gE), and the US9 type II membrane protein, respectively. These proteins participate in viral spread across cell junctions and facilitate anterograde transport of virion components in neurons, prompting us to investigate whether sequence variants in these genes could be associated with frequent recurrence. The nucleotide sequences and dN/dS ratios of the US7-US9 region from viral isolates of individuals who experienced multiple recurrences were compared with those who had had a single episode of disease. No consistent polymorphism(s) distinguished the recurrent isolates. In frequently recurring isolates, the dN/dS ratio of US7 was low while greater variation (higher dN/dS ratio) occurred in US8, suggesting conserved function of the former during reactivation. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the US7-US9 region revealed eight strongly supported clusters within the 55 U.S. HSV-2 strains sampled, which were preserved in a second global phylogeny. Thus, although we have demonstrated evolutionary diversity in the US7-US9 complex, we found no molecular evidence of sequence variation in US7-US9 that distinguishes isolates from subjects with frequently recurrent episodes of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first decades of the 20th century, political actors diagnosed the incubation of a crisis in the Chilean schooling process. Low rates of enrollment, literacy, and attendance, inefficiency in the use of resources, poverty, and a reduced number of schools were the main factors explaining the crisis. As a response, the Law on Compulsory Primary Education, considering mandatory for children between 6 and 14 years old to attend any school for at least four years, was passed in 1920. Using data from Censuses of the Republic of Chile from 1920 and 1930, reports of the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Education, and the Statistical Yearbooks between 1895 and 1930, we apply machine learning techniques (clustering and decision trees) to assess the impact of this law on the Chilean schooling process between 1920 and 1930. We conclude that the law had a positive impact on the schooling indicators in this period. Even though it did not overcome the differences between urban and rural zones, it brought about a general improvement of the schooling process and a more efficient use of resources and infrastructure in both big urban centers and small-urban and rural zones, thereby managing the so-called crisis of the Republic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not necessarily due to feedbacks in High Frequency Trading: In at least 60 percent of the observed Ultrafast Extreme Events, the largest fraction of the price change is due to a single market order. In times of financial crisis, large market orders are more likely which leads to a significant increase of Ultrafast Extreme Events occurrences. Furthermore, we analyze the 100 trades following each Ultrafast Extreme Events. While we observe a tendency of the prices to partially recover, less than 40 percent recover completely. On the other hand we find 25 percent of the Ultrafast Extreme Events to be almost recovered after only one trade which differs from the usually found price impact of market orders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product’s diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk prediction is crucial in many areas of medical practice, such as cardiac transplantation, but existing clinical risk-scoring methods have suboptimal performance. We develop a novel risk prediction algorithm and test its performance on the database of all patients who were registered for cardiac transplantation in the United States during 1985-2015. Methods and findings: We develop a new, interpretable, methodology (ToPs: Trees of Predictors) built on the principle that specific predictive (survival) models should be used for specific clusters within the patient population. ToPs discovers these specific clusters and the specific predictive model that performs best for each cluster. In comparison with existing clinical risk scoring methods and state-of-the-art machine learning methods, our method provides significant improvements in survival predictions, both post- and pre-cardiac transplantation. For instance: in terms of 3-month survival post-transplantation, our method achieves AUC of 0.660; the best clinical risk scoring method (RSS) achieves 0.587. In terms of 3-year survival/mortality predictions post-transplantation (in comparison to RSS), holding specificity at 80.0%, our algorithm correctly predicts survival for 2,442 (14.0%) more patients (of 17,441 who actually survived); holding sensitivity at 80.0%, our algorithm correctly predicts mortality for 694 (13.0%) more patients (of 5,339 who did not survive). ToPs achieves similar improvements for other time horizons and for predictions pre-transplantation. ToPs discovers the most relevant features (covariates), uses available features to best advantage, and can adapt to changes in clinical practice. Conclusions: We show that, in comparison with existing clinical risk-scoring methods and other machine learning methods, ToPs significantly improves survival predictions both post- and pre-cardiac transplantation. ToPs provides a more accurate, personalized approach to survival prediction that can benefit patients, clinicians, and policymakers in making clinical decisions and setting clinical policy. Because survival prediction is widely used in clinical decision-making across diseases and clinical specialties, the implications of our methods are far-reaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a) this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b) mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time spent fishing is the effort metric often studied in fisheries but it may under-represent the effort actually expended by fishers. Entire fishing trips, from the time vessels leave port until they return, may prove more useful for examining trends in fleet dynamics, fisher behavior, and fishing costs. However, such trip information is often difficult to resolve. We identified ~30,000 trips made by vessels that targeted walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the Eastern Bering Sea from 2008–2014 by using vessel monitoring system (VMS) and landings data. We compared estimated trip durations to observer data, which were available for approximately half of trips. Total days at sea were estimated with < 1.5% error and 96.4% of trip durations were either estimated with < 5% error or they were within expected measurement error. With 99% accuracy, we classified trips as fishing for pollock, for another target species, or not fishing. This accuracy lends strong support to the use of our method with unobserved trips across North Pacific fisheries. With individual trips resolved, we examined potential errors in datasets which are often viewed as “the truth.” Despite having > 5 million VMS records (timestamps and vessel locations), this study was as much about understanding and managing data errors as it was about characterizing trips. Missing VMS records were pervasive and they strongly influenced our approach. To understand implications of missing data on inference, we simulated removal of VMS records from trips. Removal of records straightened (i.e., shortened) vessel trajectories, and travel distances were underestimated, on average, by 1.5–13.4% per trip. Despite this bias, VMS proved robust for trip characterization and for improved quality control of human-recorded data. Our scrutiny of human-reported and VMS data advanced our understanding of the potential utility and challenges facing VMS users globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS), may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on ‘collapses,’ or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not) emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In February 2011, an Ohio law took effect mandating use of the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved protocol for mifepristone, which is used with misoprostol for medication abortion. Other state legislatures have passed or enacted similar laws requiring use of the FDA-approved protocol for medication abortion. The objective of this study is to examine the association of this legal change with medication abortion outcomes and utilization.Methods and Findings: We used a retrospective cohort design, comparing outcomes of medication abortion patients in the prelaw period to those in the postlaw period. Sociodemographic and clinical chart data were abstracted from all medication abortion patients from 1 y prior to the law's implementation (January 2010-January 2011) to 3 y post implementation (February 2011-October 2014) at four abortion-providing health care facilities in Ohio. Outcome data were analyzed for all women undergoing abortion at ≤49 d gestation during the study period. The main outcomes were as follows: need for additional intervention following medication abortion (such as aspiration, repeat misoprostol, and blood transfusion), frequency of continuing pregnancy, reports of side effects, and the proportion of abortions that were medication abortions (versus other abortion procedures). Among the 2,783 medication abortions ≤49 d gestation, 4.9% (95% CI: 3.7%-6.2%) in the prelaw and 14.3% (95% CI: 12.6%-16.0%) in the postlaw period required one or more additional interventions. Women obtaining a medication abortion in the postlaw period had three times the odds of requiring an additional intervention as women in the prelaw period (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.11, 95% CI: 2.27-4.27). In a mixed effects multivariable model that uses facility-months as the unit of analysis to account for lack of independence by site, we found that the law change was associated with a 9.4% (95% CI: 4.0%-18.4%) absolute increase in the rate of requiring an additional intervention. The most common subsequent intervention in both periods was an additional misoprostol dose and was most commonly administered to treat incomplete abortion. The percentage of women requiring two or more follow-up visits increased from 4.2% (95% CI: 3.0%-5.3%) in the prelaw period to 6.2% (95% CI: 5.5%-8.0%) in the postlaw period (p = 0.003). Continuing pregnancy was rare (0.3%). Overall, 12.6% of women reported at least one side effect during their medication abortion: 8.4% (95% CI: 6.8%-10.0%) in the prelaw period and 15.6% (95% CI: 13.8%-17.3%) in the postlaw period (p < 0.001). Medication abortions fell from 22% (95% CI: 20.8%-22.3%) of all abortions the year before the law went into effect (2010) to 5% (95% CI: 4.8%-5.6%) 3 y after (2014) (p < 0.001). The average patient charge increased from US$426 in 2010 to US$551 in 2014, representing a 16% increase after adjusting for inflation in medical prices. The primary limitation to the study is that it was a pre/post-observational study with no control group that was not exposed to the law.Conclusions: Ohio law required use of a medication abortion protocol that is associated with a greater need for additional intervention, more visits, more side effects, and higher costs for women relative to the evidence-based protocol. There is no evidence that the change in law led to improved abortion outcomes. Indeed, our findings suggest the opposite. In March 2016, the FDA-protocol was updated, so Ohio providers may now legally provide current evidence-based protocols. However, this law is still in place and bans physicians from using mifepristone based on any new developments in clinical research as best practices continue to be updated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study gender representation on the editorial boards of 435 journals in the mathematical sciences. Women are known to comprise approximately 15% of tenure-stream faculty positions in doctoral-granting mathematical sciences departments in the United States. Compared to this group, we find that 8.9% of the 13067 editorships in our study are held by women. We describe group variations within the editorships by identifying specific journals, subfields, publishers, and countries that significantly exceed or fall short of this average. To enable our study, we develop a semi-automated method for inferring gender that has an estimated accuracy of 97.5%. Our findings provide the first measure of gender distribution on editorial boards in the mathematical sciences, offer insights that suggest future studies in the mathematical sciences, and introduce new methods that enable large-scale studies of gender distribution in other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent decades, the United States experienced increasing prevalence and incidence of diabetes, accompanied by large disparities in county-level diabetes prevalence and incidence. However, whether these disparities are widening, narrowing, or staying the same has not been studied. We examined changes in disparity among U.S. counties in diagnosed diabetes prevalence and incidence between 2004 and 2012. Methods: We used 2004 and 2012 county-level diabetes (type 1 and type 2) prevalence and incidence data, along with demographic, socio-economic, and risk factor data from various sources. To determine whether disparities widened or narrowed over the time period, we used a regression-based β-convergence approach, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We calculated diabetes prevalence/incidence percentage point (ppt) changes between 2004 and 2012 and modeled these changes as a function of baseline diabetes prevalence/incidence in 2004. Covariates included county-level demographic and, socio-economic data, and known type 2 diabetes risk factors (obesity and leisure-time physical inactivity). Results: For each county-level ppt increase in diabetes prevalence in 2004 there was an annual average increase of 0.02 ppt (p<0.001) in diabetes prevalence between 2004 and 2012, indicating a widening of disparities. However, after accounting for covariates, diabetes prevalence decreased by an annual average of 0.04 ppt (p<0.001). In contrast, changes in diabetes incidence decreased by an average of 0.04 ppt (unadjusted) and 0.09 ppt (adjusted) for each ppt increase in diabetes incidence in 2004, indicating a narrowing of county-level disparities. Conclusions: County-level disparities in diagnosed diabetes prevalence in the United States widened between 2004 and 2012, while disparities in incidence narrowed. Accounting for demographic and, socio-economic characteristics and risk factors for type 2 diabetes narrowed the disparities, suggesting that these factors are strongly associated with changes in disparities. Public health interventions that target modifiable risk factors, such as obesity and physical inactivity, in high burden counties might further reduce disparities in incidence and, over time, in prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research with humans and other animals suggests that walking benefits physical health. Perhaps because these links have been demonstrated in other species, it has been suggested that walking is important to elephant welfare, and that zoo elephant exhibits should be designed to allow for more walking. Our study is the first to address this suggestion empirically by measuring the mean daily walking distance of elephants in North American zoos, determining the factors that are associated with variations in walking distance, and testing for associations between walking and welfare indicators. We used anklets equipped with GPS data loggers to measure outdoor daily walking distance in 56 adult female African (n = 33) and Asian (n = 23) elephants housed in 30 North American zoos. We collected 259 days of data and determined associations between distance walked and social, housing, management, and demographic factors. Elephants walked an average of 5.3 km/day with no significant difference between species. In our multivariable model, more diverse feeding regimens were correlated with increased walking, and elephants who were fed on a temporally unpredictable feeding schedule walked 1.29 km/day more than elephants fed on a predictable schedule. Distance walked was also positively correlated with an increase in the number of social groupings and negatively correlated with age. We found a small but significant negative correlation between distance walked and nighttime Space Experience, but no other associations between walking distances and exhibit size were found. Finally, distance walked was not related to health or behavioral outcomes including foot health, joint health, body condition, and the performance of stereotypic behavior, suggesting that more research is necessary to determine explicitly how differences in walking may impact elephant welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the US. Emerging employer-sponsored work health programs (WHP) and Digital Health Intervention (DHI) provide monitoring and guidance based on participants’ health risk assessments, but with uncertain success. DHI–mobile technology including online and smartphone interventions–has previously been found to be beneficial in reducing CVD outcomes and risk factors, however its use and efficacy in a large, multisite, primary prevention cohort has not been described to date. We analyzed usage of DHI and change in intermediate markers of CVD over the course of one year in 30,974 participants of a WHP across 81 organizations in 42 states between 2011 and 2014, stratified by participation log-ins categorized as no (n = 14,173), very low (<12/yr, n = 12,260), monthly (n = 3,360), weekly (n = 651), or semi-weekly (at least twice per week). We assessed changes in weight, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, lipids, and glucose at one year, as a function of participation level. We utilized a Poisson regression model to analyze variables associated with increased participation. Those with the highest level of participation were slightly, but significantly (p<0.0001), older (48.3±11.2 yrs) than non-participants (47.7±12.2 yr) and more likely to be females (63.7% vs 37.3% p<0.0001). Significant improvements in weight loss were demonstrated with every increasing level of DHI usage with the largest being in the semi-weekly group (-3.39±1.06 lbs; p = 0.0013 for difference from weekly). Regression analyses demonstrated that greater participation in the DHI (measured by log-ins) was significantly associated with older age (p<0.001), female sex (p<0.001), and Hispanic ethnicity (p<0.001). The current study demonstrates the success of DHI in a large, community cohort to modestly reduce CVD risk factors in individuals with high participation rate. Furthermore, participants previously underrepresented in WHPs (females and Hispanics) and those with an increased number of CVD risk factors including age and elevated BMI show increased adherence to DHI, supporting the use of this low-cost intervention to improve CVD health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose the use of Google online search data for nowcasting and forecasting the number of food stamps recipients. We perform a large out-of-sample forecasting exercise with almost 3000 competing models with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead, and we show that models including Google search data statistically outperform the competing models at all considered horizons. These results hold also with several robustness checks, considering alternative keywords, a falsification test, different out-of-samples, directional accuracy and forecasts at the state-level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies have focused on stratifying patients according to their level of readmission risk, fueled in part by incentive programs in the U.S. that link readmission rates to the annual payment update by Medicare. Patient-specific predictions about readmission have not seen widespread use because of their limited accuracy and questions about the efficacy of using measures of risk to guide clinical decisions. We construct a predictive model for readmissions for congestive heart failure (CHF) and study how its predictions can be used to perform patient-specific interventions. We assess the cost-effectiveness of a methodology that combines prediction and decision making to allocate interventions. The results highlight the importance of combining predictions with decision analysis. Methods: We construct a statistical classifier from a retrospective database of 793 hospital visits for heart failure that predicts the likelihood that patients will be rehospitalized within 30 days of discharge. We introduce a decision analysis that uses the predictions to guide decisions about post-discharge interventions. We perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of 379 additional hospital visits that were not included in either the formulation of the classifiers or the decision analysis. We report the performance of the methodology and show the overall expected value of employing a real-time decision system. Findings: For the cohort studied, readmissions are associated with a mean cost of $13,679 with a standard error of $1,214. Given a post-discharge plan that costs $1,300 and that reduces 30-day rehospitalizations by 35%, use of the proposed methods would provide an 18.2% reduction in rehospitalizations and save 3.8% of costs. Conclusions: Classifiers learned automatically from patient data can be joined with decision analysis to guide the allocation of post-discharge support to CHF patients. Such analyses are especially valuable in the common situation where it is not economically feasible to provide programs to all patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Reported associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and obesity are inconsistent depending on gender and geographic location. Globally, these inconsistent observations may hide a variation in the contextual effect on individuals' risk of obesity for subgroups of the population. This study explored the regional variability in the association between SES and BMI in the USA and in Canada, and describes the geographical variance patterns by SES category. Methods: The 2009–2010 samples of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) were used for this comparison study. Three-level random intercept and differential variance multilevel models were built separately for women and men to assess region-specific BMI by SES category and their variance bounds. Results: Associations between individual SES and BMI differed importantly by gender and countries. At the regional-level, the mean BMI variation was significantly different between SES categories in the USA, but not in Canada. In the USA, whereas the county-specific mean BMI of higher SES individuals remained close to the mean, its variation grown as SES decreased. At the county level, variation of mean BMI around the regional mean was 5 kg/m2 in the high SES group, and reached 8.8 kg/m2 in the low SES group. Conclusions: This study underlines how BMI varies by country, region, gender and SES. Lower socioeconomic groups within some regions show a much higher variation in BMI than in other regions. Above the BMI regional mean, important variation patterns of BMI by SES and place of residence were found in the USA. No such pattern was found in Canada. This study suggests that a change in the mean does not necessarily reflect the change in the variance. Analyzing the variance by SES may be a good way to detect subtle influences of social forces underlying social inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Single-center studies suggest an increasing incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) in children. Our specific aims were to (i) estimate the recent secular trends, (ii) assess the disease burden, and (iii) define the demographics and comorbid conditions of AP in hospitalized children within the United States. Methods: We used the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kids’ Inpatient Database, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality for the years 2000 to 2009. Extracted data were weighted to generate national-level estimates. We used the Cochrane-Armitage test to analyze trends; cohort-matching to evaluate the association of AP and in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and charges; and multivariable logistic regression to test the association of AP and demographics and comorbid conditions. Results: We identified 55,012 cases of AP in hospitalized children (1–20 years of age). The incidence of AP increased from 23.1 to 34.9 (cases per 10,000 hospitalizations per year; P<0.001) and for all-diagnoses 38.7 to 61.1 (P<0.001). There was an increasing trend in the incidence of both primary and all-diagnoses of AP (P<0.001). In-hospital mortality decreased (13.1 to 7.6 per 1,000 cases, P<0.001), median length of stay decreased (5 to 4 days, P<0.001), and median charges increased ($14,956 to $22,663, P<0.001). Children with AP compared to those without the disease had lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, aOR 0.86, 95% CI, 0.78–0.95), longer lengths of stay (aOR 2.42, 95% CI, 2.40–2.46), and higher charges (aOR 1.62, 95% CI, 1.59–1.65). AP was more likely to occur in children older than 5 years of age (aORs 2.81 to 5.25 for each 5-year age interval). Hepatobiliary disease was the comorbid condition with the greatest association with AP. Conclusions: These results demonstrate a rising incidence of AP in hospitalized children. Despite improvements in mortality and length of stay, hospitalized children with AP have significant morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coastal waters off the southeastern United States (SEUS) are a primary wintering ground for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), used by calving females along with other adult and juvenile whales. Management actions implemented in this area for the recovery of the right whale population rely on accurate habitat characterization and the ability to predict whale distribution over time. We developed a temporally dynamic habitat model to predict wintering right whale distribution in the SEUS using a generalized additive model framework and aerial survey data from 2003/2004 through 2012/2013. We built upon previous habitat models for right whales in the SEUS and include data from new aerial surveys that extend the spatial coverage of the analysis, particularly in the northern portion of this wintering ground. We summarized whale sightings, survey effort corrected for probability of whale detection, and environmental data at a semimonthly resolution. Consistent with previous studies, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and survey year were significant predictors of right whale relative abundance. Additionally, distance to shore, distance to the 22°C SST isotherm, and an interaction between time of year and latitude (to account for the latitudinal migration of whales) were also selected in the analysis presented here. Predictions from the model revealed that the location of preferred habitat differs within and between years in correspondence with variation in environmental conditions. Although cow-calf pairs were rarely sighted in the company of other whales, there was minimal evidence that the preferred habitat of cow-calf pairs was different than that of whale groups without calves at the scale of this study. The results of this updated habitat model can be used to inform management decisions for a migratory species in a dynamic oceanic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover maps reasonably depict areas that are strongly converted by human activities, but typically are unable to resolve low-density but widespread development patterns. Data products specifically designed to resolve land uses complement land cover datasets and likely improve our ability to understand the extent and complexity of human modification. Methods for developing a comprehensive land use classification system are described, and a map of land use for the conterminous United States is presented to reveal what we are doing on the land. The comprehensive, detailed and high-resolution dataset was developed through spatial analysis of nearly two-dozen publicly-available, national spatial datasets – predominately based on census housing, employment, and infrastructure, as well as land cover from satellite imagery. This effort resulted in 79 land use classes that fit within five main land use groups: built-up, production, recreation, conservation, and water. Key findings from this study are that built-up areas occupy 13.6% of mainland US, but that the majority of this occurs as low-density exurban/rural residential (9.1% of the US), while more intensive built-up land uses occupy 4.5%. For every acre of urban and suburban residential land, there are 0.13 commercial, 0.07 industrial, 0.48 institutional, and 0.29 acres of interstates/highways. This database can be used to address a variety of natural resource applications, and I provide three examples here: an entropy index of the diversity of land uses for smart-growth planning, a power-law scaling of metropolitan area population to developed footprint, and identifying potential conflict areas by delineating the urban interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cardiovascular diseases are the main source of morbidity and mortality in the United States with costs of more than $170 billion. Repetitive respiratory disorders during sleep are assumed to be a major cause of these diseases. Therefore, the understanding of the cardio-respiratory regulation during these events is of high public interest. One of the governing mechanisms is the mutual influence of the cardiac and respiratory oscillations on their respective onsets, the cardio-respiratory coordination (CRC). We analyze this mechanism based on nocturnal measurements of 27 males suffering from obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Here we find, by using an advanced analysis technique, the coordigram, not only that the occurrence of CRC is significantly more frequent during respiratory sleep disturbances than in normal respiration (p-value<10−51) but also more frequent after these events (p-value<10−15). Especially, the latter finding contradicts the common assumption that spontaneous CRC can only be observed in epochs of relaxed conditions, while our newly discovered epochs of CRC after disturbances are characterized by high autonomic stress. Our findings on the connection between CRC and the appearance of sleep-disordered events require a substantial extension of the current understanding of obstructive sleep apneas and hypopneas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Autism is on the rise, with 1 in 88 children receiving a diagnosis in the United States, yet the process for diagnosis remains cumbersome and time consuming. Research has shown that home videos of children can help increase the accuracy of diagnosis. However the use of videos in the diagnostic process is uncommon. In the present study, we assessed the feasibility of applying a gold-standard diagnostic instrument to brief and unstructured home videos and tested whether video analysis can enable more rapid detection of the core features of autism outside of clinical environments. We collected 100 public videos from YouTube of children ages 1–15 with either a self-reported diagnosis of an ASD (N = 45) or not (N = 55). Four non-clinical raters independently scored all videos using one of the most widely adopted tools for behavioral diagnosis of autism, the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic (ADOS). The classification accuracy was 96.8%, with 94.1% sensitivity and 100% specificity, the inter-rater correlation for the behavioral domains on the ADOS was 0.88, and the diagnoses matched a trained clinician in all but 3 of 22 randomly selected video cases. Despite the diversity of videos and non-clinical raters, our results indicate that it is possible to achieve high classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity as well as clinically acceptable inter-rater reliability with nonclinical personnel. Our results also demonstrate the potential for video-based detection of autism in short, unstructured home videos and further suggests that at least a percentage of the effort associated with detection and monitoring of autism may be mobilized and moved outside of traditional clinical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air quality is known to be a key factor in affecting the wellbeing and quality of life of the general populous and there is a large body of knowledge indicating that certain underrepresented groups may be overexposed to air pollution. Therefore, a more precise understanding of air pollution exposure as a driving cause of health disparities between and among ethnic and racial groups is necessary. Utilizing 52,613 urban census tracts across the United States, this study investigates age, racial, educational attainment and income differences in exposure to benzene pollution in 1999 as a case. The study examines spatial clustering patterns of these inequities using logistic regression modeling and spatial autocorrelation methods such as the Global Moran's I index and the Anselin Local Moran's I index. Results show that the age groups of 0 to 14 and those over 60 years old, individuals with less than 12 years of education, racial minorities including Blacks, American Indians, Asians, some other races, and those with low income were exposed to higher levels of benzene pollution in some census tracts. Clustering analyses stratified by age, education, and race revealed a clear case of disparities in spatial distribution of exposure to benzene pollution across the entire United States. For example, people aged less than 4 years from the western south and the Pacific coastal areas exhibit statistically significant clusters. The findings confirmed that there are geographical-location based disproportionate pattern of exposures to benzene air pollution by various socio-demographic factors across the United States and this type of disproportionate exposure pattern can be effectively detected by a spatial autocorrelation based cluster analysis method. It is suggested that there is a clear and present need for programs and services that will reduce inequities and ultimately improve environmental conditions for all underrepresented groups in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]