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This paper adds to the literature on the information content of the paper-bill spread by explicitly taking into account the two sources of wider spreads, rises in the paper rate and declines in the bill rate. Results from impulse response analysis and variance decompositions suggest that decreases in real output are greater and last longer when a widening of the paper-bill spread comes from an increase in the paper rate rather than from an equivalent decrease in the bill rate. This is consistent with the idea that changes in the commercial paper rate have greater information content about future business cycles than do changes in the Treasury bill rate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a case study of the introduction of financial incentive schemes in a fine paper mill. The circumstances were difficult in several respects. First, a new machine had been installed which raised the mill's capacity sixfold, yet the industry suffered several severe recessions in the following years. Secondly, one of the biggest British firms of management consultants had been brought in, but the employees had formally refused to have anything to do with their proposals. Thirdly, it was necessary to make special provision to reward quality as well as quantity of output. In these conditions it is significant that the measures adopted were outstandingly successful, the mill's output rising to the new capacity with a total wage-bill which, after correcting for the effect of national awards, is virtually unchanged. There has been a papermill at Wolvercote, near Oxford, for three hundred years. For the last hundred years it has been owned by the Oxford University Press and it has supplied the Press with its various qualities of bible and book papers. For most of this time there was one small paper machine running slowly and producing very expensive paper. By 1949 it had become essential to reduce production costs, and a programme of modernization was started. The existing paper machine was first modified and speeded up; then in 1957 a new paper machine 130" wide, with a designed speed of 800 ft. per minute, was brought into operation. This meant increasing annual output from 3,000 tons to a possible 18,000 tons of which only 2,500 tons was to be taken by the parent organization. At the time when the plans for the new machine were being made, it appeared that there would be no difficulty in selling this difference of 15,500 tons to other customers. In the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The third and fourth papers shift the focus from the companies' internal dynamics to those concerning the relationships that companies must operate with external stakeholders to implement circular business models. Finally, the fifth and sixth papers further shift the focus on the business model concept towards the business ecosystems, which include all the other stakeholders in the organizational environment that concur to the circular business model operations. Circular business models explicitly link the business model to the product life-cycle (Hansen et al., 2009) and are a vehicle to slow and/or close (additionally also narrowing) resource cycles (Bocken et al., 2016). Through a multiple case study involving three large Swedish manufacturing companies, the paper develops a circular business model implementation framework composed of two parts. [Extracted from the article]

This paper analyses the dynamics of financial deepening and the volatility of business cycle in the United Arab of Emirates (UAE). We use cointegration tests of regime‐shift with one and two endogenous structural breaks, respectively, using Gregory and Hansen, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, 555–560 and Hatemi‐J, Empirical Economics, 2008, 35, 497–505 approaches. The asymmetry in the underlying relationship of the concerned variables are examined following NARDL model over the period 1974–2016. The findings suggest the presence of regime shifts in the cointegrating relationship and asymmetry between growth volatility and financial deepening. Furthermore, the paper provides evidence of a significant difference in the response of business cycle to negative or positive changes in the financial deepening, which are more pronounced in the short run. Therefore, the obtained asymmetry suggests that business cycle responses are quick and adverse to changes in the financial system in the UAE. The empirical findings of this paper have potential policy implications in this emerging country that is aiming to establish an international reputation in its financial market and become a regional financial hub. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Geographer is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper uses panel data for Canada from 1976 to 2018, across 10 provinces, to reassess the relationship between mortality rates and economic fluctuations. The key contribution of our paper lies in examining the extent to which this relationship is driven by the employment rate (extensive margin) versus average hours worked (intensive margin). We find evidence of procyclical mortality for females at the aggregate level; aggregate male mortality remains largely unaffected by economic fluctuations. Our findings also reveal temporal heterogeneity, as the extensive margin becomes the driving force for female mortality rates during the more recent period (1990 onwards). These findings remain robust when accounting for personal income and pollution. Finally, we find some support for a procyclical relationship for individuals in the working age groups, while mortality exhibits a countercyclical pattern for children (age 0 to 14) and the elderly (age 65 and above). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the author's comments on a paper that examined expected returns on stocks. The author suggests that the paper did an excellent job evaluating variance-bound literature; however, he believes that the analysis conducted was partial and failed to highlight the conclusions reached by other prominent researchers on volatility. The author also is skeptical of the conclusion drawn in the paper that suggests turning to nonstandard models for expected returns to explain stock price volatility. The author notes that the field has come a long way in understanding the statistical traps involved with volatility and pushes for more research.

The Great Financial Crisis and the COVID‐19 pandemic have raised concerns about business cycles. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of past business cycles in CAEMC economies to infer the shapes of recessions and subsequent recoveries. We use annual GDP data covering the period 1960–2020 and non‐parametric approach. The main results are fourfold. First, recessions are, on average, long with a positive duration dependence relationship and the strength of recoveries is independent of the duration and the depth of the associated recessions. Second, recessions and recoveries are not all alike, meaning that history cannot be used as a guide for forecasting issue. Third, nearly 45% of the recessions and subsequent recoveries are V‐shaped, and the L, U and W patterns appear when governments are heavily indebted. Fourth, a regional cycle sometimes emerges. The results suggest a strengthening of the capacities of CAEMC states and a resilient supply chain management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the triggers of arrears on debt in a full recourse euro area country. An extensive individual‐level quarterly panel dataset enables quarterly arrears on debt to be tracked while controlling for individual specific heterogeneity. The estimations show that lower income and higher debt service ratios are associated with a higher probability of arrears, confirming the "ability to pay" hypothesis. The results reveal different debt repayment behaviour for housing and consumer loans over a business cycle. Newly taken housing loans exhibit a lower probability of arrears and the same applies to loans granted during the period of easy credit conditions and high real estate prices, indicating that housing credit boom has not contributed to the rise in arrears on debt. Newly taken consumer loans are related to a higher probability of arrears, suggesting that consumer loans have been used to alleviate financial difficulties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article summarises the academic contributions presented and discussed during the 2016 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meetings, which focused on the role played by uncertainty for a number of countries' business cycle. Considerations on the interaction between uncertainty and financial frictions, the global dimension of uncertainty, uncertainty shocks in times of unconventional monetary policy and the imperfect knowledge that agents have over policy targets are among the discussions entertained in this article. The main insights coming from those papers are connected with the extant literature and directions for future research are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the aggregate effects of global uncertainty using monthly South African data. The empirical analysis is implemented in the context of vector autoregressions (VAR), augmented with various proxies for economic and financial indicators. The evidence shows that global uncertainty shocks are a significant source of economic fluctuations—they are estimated to significantly explain the cyclical downturn and exert negative impact on the financial and stock markets. These results are consistent with the view that uncertainty shocks are an important exogenous source of cyclical fluctuations and the reactions in the financial market play an important role in the impact of uncertainty shocks on the real economy. The evidence shows that uncertainty is important to the inflation dynamics while inflation and output co‐move negatively conditional on uncertainty shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of time-varying idiosyncratic risk at the establishment level on unemployment fluctuations over 1972-2009. I build a tractable directed search model with firm dynamics and time-varying idiosyncratic volatility. The model allows for endogenous separations, entry and exit, and job-to-job transitions. I show that the model can replicate salient features of the microeconomic behavior of firms and that the introduction of volatility improves the fit of the model for standard business cycle moments. In a series of counterfactual experiments, I show that time-varying risk is important to account for the magnitude of fluctuations in aggregate unemployment for past U.S. recessions. Though the model can account for about 40% of the total increase in unemployment for the 2007-2009 recession, uncertainty alone is not sufficient to explain the magnitude and persistence of unemployment during that episode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the relationship between health care and the macroeconomy, which has gained increasing attention in recent years. The article highlights the importance of understanding the causes and implications of rising health care expenditures, as well as the impact of health on macroeconomic performance. It also explores various topics related to health and the economy, such as the implications of health risks for consumption and wealth allocation, the role of health as a type of human capital, and the challenges posed by population aging and rising health spending. The article includes six papers that examine different aspects of the macroeconomics of health care and aging in various countries. [Extracted from the article]

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a decline in economic growth, exports, and export diversification and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample countries from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in the Asia‐Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short‐term interest rates, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may reduce CPI inflation and short‐term interest rates. We also find that the Asia‐Pacific region is highly heterogeneous in that the output gaps of some countries, particularly from the Southeast Asian region, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an estimated Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model to evaluate the quantitative importance of two channels in driving aggregate consumption fluctuations in the US: (i) precautionary savings against unemployment risk and (ii) MPC heterogeneity. I find that MPC heterogeneity is the dominant channel because a large fraction of households are close to the borrowing limit. The empirical average MPC target in HANK generates counterfactually volatile aggregate consumption, and thus makes it more difficult for the estimated model to match the persistence of the aggregate data, indicating an MPC puzzle. This is because the likelihood‐based estimation favors a low degree of nominal rigidity and responsive monetary policy in the HANK model to reduce the discrepancy between consumption volatility in the model and in the data. The low degree of nominal rigidity and responsive monetary policy reduce the persistence of endogenous variables in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper aims to evaluate the performances of the wavelet, Hodrick–Prescott (HP), and Baxter–King (BK) filters in extracting cyclical information and to use an appropriate method to analyze China's business cycles. First, we use a second‐order autoregression (AR (2)) and random walk, based on Monte Carlo simulation experiments, to generate the data‐generating processes (DGPs) with different frequency characteristics. Second, the HP, BK, and wavelet filters are applied to extract the cyclical components of the respective DGPs. Third, the filtering abilities of the three methods are statistically compared. The results show the following: (1) Under the condition that the DGP is low frequency (long cycle) and trend dominated, the filtering performance of the three methods will remain unsatisfactory. (2) If the DGP is high frequency (short cycle), all three methods can serve as effective methods regardless of whether they are trend dominated or cycle dominated. However, it can be seen that the BK and wavelet filters present better performance than the HP filter. (3) In other cases, better filtering performances can be observed in the wavelet. Finally, the three methods are applied to estimate China's business cycles. In conclusion, this paper argues that the wavelet can effectively replace HP and BK filters to extract cyclical components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While isolated episodes of work stoppages keep occurring, aggregate industrial action rates have been on the decline over the last five decades. Attempts to explain this trend centre on the short‐term effects of the business cycle and the long‐term impacts of labour market liberalisation, deindustrialisation and globalisation. This paper argues that household indebtedness is a missing piece of the puzzle. Since indebted employees tend to become self‐disciplined at the workplace on the fear of losing their job and defaulting, this paper argues that the post‐1970 rise of household financialisation is associated with the decline of strike activity. The econometric evidence reported provides strong support to this argument for the cases of Japan, Korea, Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom over the period 1970–2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper supplements a learning‐by‐doing real business cycle model with endogenous organizational forgetting. Empirical evidence shows that the accumulated experience decay rate is not constant over the business cycle, but that forgetting is a function of economic activity. Learning reinforces the effects of productivity shocks, and organizational forgetting exacerbates their impact and increases their persistence. This is of particular interest when a negative productivity shock hits the economy, as the increasing speed of forgetting aggravates the negative shock and delays recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares several methods for constructing weekly nowcasts of recession probabilities in Italy, with a focus on the most recent period of the Covid-19 pandemic. The common thread of these methods is that they use, in different ways, the information content provided by financial market data. In particular, a battery of probit models are estimated after extracting information from a large dataset of more than 130 financial market variables observed at a weekly frequency. The accuracy of these models is explored in a pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting exercise. The results demonstrate that nowcasts derived from probit models estimated on a large set of financial variables are, on average, more accurate than those delivered by standard probit models estimated on a single financial covariate, such as the slope of the yield curve. The proposed approach performs well even compared with probit models estimated on single time series of real economic activity variables, such as industrial production, business tendency survey data or composite PMI indicators. Overall, the financial indicators used in this paper can be easily updated as soon as new data become available on a weekly basis, thus providing reliable early estimates of the Italian business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how tax‐and‐transfer progressivity influences aggregate fluctuations when interacting with household heterogeneity. Using a simple static model of the extensive margin labor supply, we analytically characterize how a degree of progressivity influences differential labor supply responses to aggregate conditions across heterogeneous households. We then build a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with both idiosyncratic and aggregate productivity shocks and show that it delivers moderately procyclical average labor productivity and a large cyclical volatility of aggregate hours relative to output. Our quantitative exercises suggest that progressivity at the bottom of the income distribution shaped by the phasing out of transfers is key for these findings. Finally, we provide suggestive empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of employment responses across the wage distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital reallocation between firms is procyclical and leads to variations in measured aggregate productivity. In this paper, we ask how much of the cyclical variation in measured productivity is the consequence of capital reallocation. We build a heterogeneous‐firm model to study the effects of exogenous shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) and to the costs of reallocation. These shocks cause an endogenous cyclicality of measured aggregate productivity. Only a model driven by exogenous TFP shocks is able to generate both data‐consistent cyclical movements in reallocation and sizeable variations in measured aggregate productivity. We find that capital reallocation does not play a major role in amplifying aggregate productivity variations over the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the heterogeneous patterns of clean energy consumption at business cycle frequencies from 1970 to 2017. Specifically, the paper provides a systematic analysis of this relationship in a comprehensive cross‐country panel by extracting the cyclical components of the clean energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) series based on the Hodrick–Prescott filter. Focusing on the cyclical components, we conclude the stylised facts as follows: (a) clean energy consumption is procyclical in advanced economies and developing economies, but acyclical in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); (b) clean energy consumption is cyclically more volatile than GDP in a typical country; (c) the correlation between cyclicality of clean energy consumption and GDP per capita is more intricate in different country groups; and (d) clean energy consumption is positively correlated with the oil price in advanced economies and developing economies, and negatively correlated in OPEC. These stylised facts are potentially important for establishing empirical and theoretical models to exploit the consequences and impacts of clean energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us--for the first time--to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross-sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession, inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tail. We further document substantial gender differences in average earnings and inequality over the life cycle. While for men earnings rise and inequality falls as they grow older, many women reduce working hours when starting a family such that average earnings fall and inequality increases. Men's earnings changes are on average smaller than women's but are substantially more affected by the business cycle. During the Great Recession, men's earnings losses become magnified and gains are attenuated. Apart from recession years, earnings changes are significantly right-skewed reflecting the good overall state of the German labor market and increasing labor supply. In the second part of the paper, we study the distribution of total income including incomes of self-employed, business owners, and landlords. We find that total inequality increased significantly more than earnings inequality. Regarding income dynamics, entrepreneurs' income changes are more dispersed, less skewed, less leptokurtic, and less dependent on average past income than workers' income changes. Finally, we find that top income earners have become less likely to fall out of the top 1 and 0.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Springer Nature became a formidable market leader in academic publishing after a 2015 merger. In 2018, Springer Nature made an initial public offering (IPO) attempt to reduce company debt and fortify company value. Three media sources (Reuters, Bloomberg and Nasdaq) indicated that there was a second IPO attempt in 2020, but neither of those IPO attempts reached fruition. This paper summarizes the main events surrounding those IPOs and offers some possible discussion points about them, including economic and market fluctuations. This case also highlights the highly competitive nature of the commercial publishing landscape in a non‐profit academic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper shows that newspaper articles contain signals that can materially improve real‐time nowcasts of real GDP growth for the Euro area. Using articles from 15 popular European newspapers, which are machine translated into English, we create sentiment metrics that update daily and assess their value for nowcasting, comparing with competitive and rigorous benchmarks. We find that newspaper text is especially helpful early in the quarter before other indicators are available. We also find that general‐purpose sentiment measures perform better than more economics‐focused ones in response to unanticipated events and nonlinear supervised models can help capture extreme movements in growth but require sufficient training data to be effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Quantile regression methods are increasingly used to forecast tail risks and uncertainties in macroeconomic outcomes. This paper reconsiders how to construct predictive densities from quantile regressions. We compare a popular two‐step approach that fits a specific parametric density to the quantile forecasts with a nonparametric alternative that lets the "data speak." Simulation evidence and an application revisiting GDP growth uncertainties in the United States demonstrate the flexibility of the nonparametric approach when constructing density forecasts from both frequentist and Bayesian quantile regressions. They identify its ability to unmask deviations from symmetrical and unimodal densities. The dominant macroeconomic narrative becomes one of the evolution, over the business cycle, of multimodalities rather than asymmetries in the predictive distribution of GDP growth when conditioned on financial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standard recession forecasting based on economic indicators has become unsettled due to COVID‐19 pandemic's limited but influential data. This paper proposes a new non‐parametric approach to computing predictive probabilities of future recessions that is robust to influential observations and other data irregularities. The method simulates forecasts using past data histories embedded into a symbolic space. Then, the forecasts are converted into probability statements, which are weighted by the forecast probabilities of their respective symbols. Using GDP data from G7, our proposal outperforms other parametric approaches in classifying future national business cycle phases, especially including data from 2020 in the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey is one of the highest donors in the world, who also receives substantial amount of aids from various entities and countries. This paper aims to investigate the on going nexus between economic growth (EG) and foreign aid (AID) in Turkey; utilizing yearly data between 1960 and 2022 by employing wavelet analysis tools: namely the power spectrum, wavelet coherence, wavelet cohesion and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) causality approach, which provides information of both long‐run and short‐run linkages for separate subperiods of time and frequencies. Our results reveal that; (a) the result of the power spectrum indicates that at different frequency and period, there is evidence of significant variation in EG and AID; (b) the outcome of the wavelet coherence confirms that there is comovement at varying frequencies and varying periods between EG and AID, with AID leading; (c) the outcome of the wavelet cohesion shows a positive/negative connection in the short and medium term, but a negative connection in the long term; (d) the result of the CWT causality approach confirmed the 'feedback hypothesis' at the aggregate level, in‐phase and out‐phase condition. As a result, policymakers should be more effective in supporting EG at high frequencies and only under the rule of the economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous managerial and corporate finance perspectives suggest mutual tax advantages when depreciation is transferred from an asset's user to a lessor, creating a perceived loss of tax revenue for the government. This study delves deeper into the lease versus buy decision and its ramifications on government tax revenue. It goes beyond tax rate discrepancies, exploring how factors like lessor‐lessee borrowing rate differences, asset lifespan, depreciation, and lease payment schedules impact tax revenues, both analytically and numerically. The paper establishes a strong theoretical foundation, emphasizing positive‐sum games involving lessees, lessors, and governments in individual deals. Government benefits from leasing vary across asset classes, market structures, depreciation timelines, credit quality, tax credits, and business cycles. The proposal is that the aggregate impact at the federal level could be positive, negative, or neutral across all leasing deals. These insights surpass conventional knowledge, offering valuable perspectives for finance and accounting educators, students, practitioners, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by Rajan's study and existing economic reform theories (especially the lobby theory), we highlight income inequality as a driver of financial liberalisations. However, no evidence yet supports this idea. To verify this liberalisation‐induced‐by‐inequality hypothesis, the nexus of income inequality and financial liberalisations is formalised and empirically investigated in this paper. We utilise an ordered logit model with two‐way fixed effects and panel data from 91 countries to conduct the analyses. The baseline empirical results indicate that income inequality is a positive and significant determinant of financial liberalisations in aggregate and three component indicators. The results for three component indicators remain stable after a series of robustness checks, including mitigating the potential endogeneity via IV‐2SLS, Lewbel instrumental variable technique and difference within group, assessing the bias from the unobservable variables, considering the persistent and learning effects of liberalisations and the interaction effects, alternating the measures of income inequality, reducing business cycle, and using financial reforms rather financial liberalisation as independent variable. The results for aggregate liberalisations are slightly unstable in models with persistent and learning effects. Thus, liberalisation‐induced‐by‐inequality hypothesis is generally confirmed. In addition, the impacts of income inequality on financial liberalisations are widely heterogeneous across countries, the rate of change in income inequality and wealth inequality could also predict the occurrence of financial liberalisations, and the evidence that income inequality makes the poor easier access credits (i.e., Rajan's hypothesis) is found. Finally, the role is investigated of financial liberalisations in shaping banking stability, and we find that financial liberalisations can enhance growth and lower financial risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate noncompliant behaviors. It organizes contributions according to selected dimensions that denote important pillars of the macroeconomic literature and that are relevant to explaining the nature and role of non‐compliant behaviors. These pillars are business cycles, macroeconomic policies, labor markets, income inequality, and financial factors. Starting with studies from the early 2000s, when general equilibrium models first began to include noncompliant behaviors, our study provides a temporal excursus on the evolution of the phenomenon in this literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of global business, enabling firms to not only survive but also thrive in times of adversity while supporting the effective functioning of business, economy, and society at large. This theme indicates that "cultural distance" and "family firms" often emerge in "systematic reviews" of global business phenomenon, thereby highlighting the centrality of these two concepts in understanding global business in the modern era. Therefore, prospective authors are highly encouraged to submit their best papers that theorize business functions and trending business phenomena using well-defined methodological approaches to I Global Business and Organizational Excellence i . Global business has been and continues to be omnipresent. [Extracted from the article]

This paper is an empirical attempt to assess the relations among business cycles, financial cycles, and economic uncertainty for India during the period January 2003 to January 2020. Empirical findings from the vector autoregression model suggest a bidirectional causal relationship between the real and financial markets. Further, the aforementioned markets are found to influence the uncertainty index in India. We employ the Granger causality test in the frequency domain which exhibits the dynamic nature of causal relations, while our novel fractal connectivity approach reveals the long‐run correlation structure among all three variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a paper published within the issue, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark. The author also discusses results from his own research in "Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969," and applies it to Clark's paper. It is suggested that an abrupt rise in energy prices may have affected growth rates during the mid-1970s. The author also looks at a similar analysis made by John Kendrick, who focuses on the U.S. postwar period of 1948-1966.

Part I of this paper discusses briefly the methods used in the calculation of the variance--co-variance matrix and correlation coefficients and the nature and sources of the data. In Part II we present an analysis of correlation among pairs of domestic and foreign assets over different lengths of holding periods. Part III contains an analysis of correlation among pairs of domestic and foreign identical industries. The paper closes with the presentation of the influence exchange rate variations have on the stability of earnings from foreign assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advances in the theoretical literature on international trade have shown considerable interest in the demand side of the general equilibrium. This paper supplements the literature by highlighting the role of non‐marketed complementaries. Individuals derive utility by consuming two marketed commodities and a non‐marketed commodity. The non‐marketed commodity affects the relative demands of the marketed commodities by acting as complement to one of the marketed commodities. Considering "information" as an exemplar of the non‐marketed commodity, this paper derives a number of insightful results that relate the volume and pattern of trade to the stock and flow of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding international transmission mechanism that generates the world business cycle is of immense interest. In this paper, we compile a rich global dataset and utilize a trade‐linked structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a relatively realistic identification scheme to construct a worldwide dynamic interdependency system. Empirical results indicate that the trade‐linked SVAR system can largely capture the common dynamic properties of national business cycle fluctuations, providing a meaningful transmission foundation to the world business cycle derived from dynamic factor models. Based on the worldwide trade‐linked SVAR system, we further shed light on three crucial topics in international economics. The findings and methods in this paper help to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of recent trade dispute between world major economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we devise a forward‐looking methodology to determine efficient credit portfolios under the IFRS 9 framework. We define and implement a credit loss model based on prospective point‐in‐time probabilities of default. We determine these probabilities of default and the credits' stage allocation through a credit stochastic simulation. This simulation is based on the estimation of transition matrices. Using data from 1981 to 2019, in a non‐homogeneous Markov chain setting, we estimate transition matrices conditional on the global real gross domestic product growth. This allows considering the effects of the economic cycle, which are of great importance in bank management. Finally, we develop a robust optimization model that allows the bank manager to analyze the trade‐off between the annual average portfolio income and the corresponding portfolio volatility. According to the proposed bi‐objective model, we compute the efficient credit portfolios constructed based on 10‐year maturity credits. We compare their structure to those generated by the IAS 39 and CECL accounting frameworks. The results indicate that the IFRS 9 and CECL frameworks generate efficient credit portfolios whose structure penalizes riskier‐rated credits. In turn, the riskier efficient credit portfolios under the IAS 39 framework concentrate entirely on speculative‐grade credits. This pattern is also encountered in efficient credit portfolios constructed based on credits with different maturities, namely 5 and 15 years. Moreover, the longer the maturity of the credits that enter into the composition of the efficient portfolios, the more the speculative‐grade credits tend to be penalized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Output response to discretionary fiscal policy is a key aspect of examining various theories, findings of empirical studies and delivering guidance to policymakers. This study analyses the output response to unanticipated fiscal spending shocks under several structural economic characteristic factors, including business cycle states, debt burden, openness of the economy, exchange rate regimes and political governance regime, using annual data from 40 countries in SSA spanning from 2000 to 2019 in a panel threshold vector auto‐regression model. The findings indicate that fiscal spending multipliers have much larger effects on output in times of recession, in economies operating under lower trade openness, a fixed exchange rate, low‐debt burden, restricted capital mobility, less financial development and a democratic governance regime. Based on the results, the discretionary countercyclical fiscal policy and optimal fiscal policy action are recommended. Moreover, in order to have effective fiscal policy must target hand‐to‐mouth consumers (non‐Ricardian consumers) and firms with limited liquidity, concentrating on social services and social protection to increase short‐term demand. Likewise, A proper fiscal monetary policy mix should be considered with other structural measures to maximising the positive effects of the fiscal expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the relationship between domestic (i.e., country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and offers ten main takeaways. The second part surveys contributions to the fast‐growing strand of the literature that focuses on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part presents contributions on the role played by uncertainty during the COVID‐19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the New Keynesian framework, theoretically and quantitatively, in an economy with multiple sectors and input‐output linkages. Analytical expressions for the Phillips curve and welfare, derived as a function of primitives, show that the slope of all sectoral and aggregate Phillips curves is decreasing in intermediate input shares, while productivity fluctuations endogenously generate an inflation‐output tradeoff—except when inflation is measured according to the novel divine coincidence index. Consistent with the theory, the divine coincidence index provides a better fit in Phillips curve regressions than consumer prices. Monetary policy can no longer achieve the first‐best, resulting in a welfare loss of 2.9% of per‐period GDP under the constrained‐optimal policy, which increases to 3.8% when targeting consumer inflation. The constrained‐optimal policy must tolerate relative price distortions across firms and sectors in order to stabilize the output gap, and it can be implemented via a Taylor rule that targets the divine coincidence index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present a model of economic growth with endogenous technical progress. We test if the neoclassical growth model accepts the assumption that capital intensity affects Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the long run. Our view takes inspiration from Kaldor's growth model of 1957 in which the Technical Progress Function (TPF) responds to the joint behavior of capital intensity and inventiveness. We find that "movements along a production function cannot be distinguished from shifts in this function" as formalized by the TPF. The model is tested using a Structural VAR for 17 advanced economies, over the period 1980–2020. On impact, when capital intensity improves, TFP increases sharply. This response is large and persistent over time and explains about half as much as of measured TFP. It confirms that capital intensity is an omitted variable in the traditional scheme used to estimate technical progress. Notably, the standard neoclassical growth model is not consistent with this evidence. Our analysis also shows that demand shocks can have permanent effects on output and unemployment. Finally, monetary policy helps to stabilize the business cycle, but loses its effectiveness in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how sensemaking theory offers a new perspective on HR's role during strategic change. As change in organisations today is less of a programme and more of a continuous cycle of business transformation, there has been a shift in focus to its underpinning, cognitive process of sensemaking. However, HR's role in developing sensemaking praxis in organisations is not widely researched to date. This paper addresses that gap. We draw on Eisenhardt and Sull's 'simple rules' whereby complex strategy praxis is reduced to a highly translatable, small number of key rules (2001). Through a diary study of middle managers engaging in strategic change, we investigate their real‐time, lived sensemaking praxis. We conclude that HR have a significant contribution to play in developing an organisation's sensemaking praxis through four Simple Rules of Sensemaking: (1) plan creative discourse opportunities, (2) ensure leader‐middle manager parity, (3) mutually direct sensemaking through ongoing re‐planning and re‐prioritisation, and (4) ensure leadership effort continues beyond the initiation of strategic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In this paper, we extract latent factors from a large cross‐section of commodity prices, including fuel and non‐fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block‐specific components, and a purely idiosyncratic component. We find that the bulk of the fluctuations in commodity prices are well summarized by a single global factor. This global factor is closely related to fluctuations in global economic activity and, since the early 2000s, has become more important in explaining variations in commodity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What can other entrepreneurs and managers in general learn from those entrepreneurs who overcome crises productively? SYNOPSIS OF VSI ARTICLES: PART I The five papers that explore I Entrepreneurial Responses To Crisis i (Part I of the VSI), broadly speaking, fall into three categories according to the level of analysis on which they focus: the entrepreneur, the entrepreneurial firm, or the entrepreneurial team. The study thus presents evidence of entrepreneurial firms turning a disadvantage (i.e., a crisis and the increased labor market imperfections it brings) into an opportunity by strengthening firm-level capabilities through adjusting human resource practices. The COVID-19 crisis, and past research on entrepreneurship during times of crisis in particular, throw into sharp relief not only the challenges and opportunities experienced by entrepreneurs, but also the great potential for research opportunities on entrepreneurship and crises. [Extracted from the article]

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978–2016. Explored in particular are the cross‐regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically the behavior of expected loan loss provisions during the economic cycle. The provisioning rules under IFRS 9 require the creation of reserves to cover expected credit losses, were anticipated to act countercyclically, and thus replaced the rules under IAS 39, which are widely presumed to have a procyclical impact. Observing the dynamics of the economic cycle during the economic downturn resulting from the COVID restrictions, a panel regression was performed to test the hypothesis that loan loss provisioning rules under IFRS 9 have a procyclical impact. The hypothesis was not rejected on the basis of a sample of the member countries of the European Union for the period of 1Q 2015 – 3Q 2020. Since the conclusions about procyclicality of loan loss provisions under IFRS 9 might be sensitive to the choice of models applied by the banks or to the assumptions applied to forward‐looking information used in the models, there are certain areas that supervisory and regulatory authorities might look into to increase the quality of ECL models and their predictive power and help to eliminate potential triggers of procyclicality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]