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This report presents a broad approach to quantifying the decision-making process of selecting from among range safety programs. No attempt is made to analyze a specific range probelm or to develop a mathematical model. Decision-making rules must be formulated, and decisions relating to the values of life and expected cost of same must be made before a range safety program is adopted. Economic cost categories, both tangible and intangible, must be considered. Total cost must be measured, including its four cost elements: range safety program costs, range user costs, casualty and property damage costs, and intangible losses from accidents. The level of attainment of accident prevention is an additional consideration. A comparison of the cost and effectiveness levels presents a methodology for selecting from among possible range safety programs. This methodology considers total cost as the sensitive factor in the adoption of a final policy. (Author)

The geographical interests of the Pacific Missile Range cover the entire Pacific Ocean Area and part of the Indian Ocean (to longitude 90 E). Before the interests of the Pacific Missile Range in the Indian Ocean were specifically defined, a study was initiated to determine the density and characteristics of all nonmilitary shipping in the Pacific Ocean. This report presents the results of this study. Numerous sources of data on Pacific shipping were thoroughly searched in this study, including government publications from many nations, books and periodicals, and information procured directly from shipping companies. This vast quantity of available data was sifted to obtain information on the location and density of Pacific shipping and on the size, speed, number of people onboard, and nationality of the vessels employed in various areas for various uses. The nonmilitary shipping was divided into three categories of traffic, (1) that which travels on sea lanes or trade routes, (2) that which operates in coastal or other ''local'' zones, and (3) that which engages in pelagic fishing (away from coastal or local zones).

Contents: Purpose, History of Project, and Scope; Approach--Study objectives, Overall approach, and Principal assumptions; Combat Model--The choice of a model, Description of a model, and use of a combat model; Measurement of Combat Effectiveness--Method for ranking battle outcome, and Experimental design and analysis; Discussion--Adequacy of input data on tactical information systems, Resources required for a combat effectiveness comparison, Limitations, and Possible directions for future research and improvements; Appendices--(A) ADVICE II input data (Army war college questionnaire and scenario based questionnaire), (B) Rank ordering of mission performance, and (C) Experimental design and analysis.

This report concerns a method for answering the questions: (1) How much is the combat effectiveness of a ground force changed when an improved tactical information system is added to the force; and (2) How does such a change in effectiveness compare with that from equal-cost addition of a maneuver element. The Army is sponsoring the development of computerized systems for improving the flow of tactical information within an army in the field. The current title for one such system is the 'tactical operations system' (TOS). RAC assisted in developing methods for evaluating these systems. This has resulted in the development of a combat model, designated as ADVICE II, in which the ability of ground force commanders to bring about improved combat results is examined as a function of whether one side in a simulated conflict is provided with a superior TOS or with an equal-cost increment or maneuver elements. A model has also been developed for estimating the incremental costs of additions of either TOS or maneuver elements.

This report begins with the assumption that the total national cost of a range safety policy is a useful measure for comparing different safety policies. Using the situation of ICBM launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base into the Kwajalein Atoll, there is developed a model for determinivg expected numbers and costs of casualties, expected numbers and costs of casualties, expected number and cost of good missiles destroyed, and other factors entering into an over-all cost summation. With the model it is possible to determine the influence on tatal cost (or on its components) of changes in parameters of safety policies. The parameter changes possible include (1) altering the target point, (2) moving the impact limit lines, and (3) modifying or eliminating the range safety system (GERSIS). As far as is known, this is the first concerted effort to estimate hazards in areas protected by impact limit lines. (Author)

This report concerns a method for studying: (1) the change in combat effectiveness of a ground force when an improved tactical information system is added to the force; and (2) how such a change in effectiveness compares with that from an equal-cost addition of a maneuver element. The Army is sponsoring the development of computerized systems for improving the flow of tactical information within an army in the field. The current title for one such system is the 'tactical operations system' (TOS). To evaluate these systems a combat model, designated as ADVICE II, was developed. In it the ability of ground force commanders to bring about improved combat results is examined as a function of whether one side in a simulated conflict is provided with a superior TOS or with an equal - cost increment of maneuver elements. A model has also been developed for estimating the incremental costs of additions of either TOS or maneuver elements.