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Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants

Dutch elm disease (DED) is a fungal disease that causes high mortality of elms. DED and its vector beetles are widely present in most of the countries in the Northern Hemisphere, but they are not known to be present in Finland. DED is a major risk to plant health in Finland. DED and its vectors are moderately likely to enter Finland by natural spread aided by hitchhiking, because they are present in areas close to Finland. Entry via other pathways is much less likely, mainly due to the low volume of trade of untreated wood and plants for planting. DED and its vectors could likely establish in the southern parts of the country, since they currently occur in similar climatic conditions in other countries. DED could cause massive environmental damage as natural elm groves are critically endangered habitats in Finland. The economic consequences to the owners of mature elms could also be significant. Eradication or containment of DED could be possible if strict measures were taken as the patchy distribution of elms would limit the spread of the disease. The most important source of uncertainty in this assessment is the lack of information regarding the amount of elm in fuel wood, wood waste and wood chips imported to Finland.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for the grapevine insect pest, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (an aphid species commonly known as phylloxera), in the European Union, identified risk reduction options and evaluated the effectiveness of the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry was assessed as potentially very likely for plants intended for planting (although the pathway is closed by Article 15 of Annex III) and very unlikely for fruit for consumption because transport and transfer would be very difficult, even though phylloxera has a moderate likelihood of association with the pathway. Establishment is very likely as the pest is already very widespread in the risk assessment area, occurring almost everywhere Vitis plants are present. Successful eradication is very unlikely and small populations can persist undetected in the soil. Spread within the EU is considered to be very likely because there are no effective barriers, it can disperse up to a few kilometres aided by the wind and it can readily be moved long distances with planting material. Grafting with resistant rootstocks throughout the EU ensures that the production of fruit and plants for planting is rarely affected by phylloxera infestations and, if so, only at a limited level. The Panel considers that the IIAII measures for D. vitifoliae do not assist in preventing entry and are ineffective in preventing spread because detection is so difficult. Restricting movements of plants for planting to cuttings grafted on resistant rootstocks, in combination with treatments (e.g. particularly fungicides and hot water treatments), was found to be the most effective risk reduction option. Limitations in the Cyprus protected zone regulations were identified.

The Panel conducted a pest risk assessment for Xanthomonas campestris (all strains pathogenic to Citrus) for the EU territory and an assessment of the effectiveness of present EU requirements against Xanthomonas strains pathogenic to citrus. The risk assessment was conducted under the scenario of absence of the current specific EU plant health legislation and the assumption that citrus-exporting countries apply measures to reduce yield and quality losses. Risk reduction options were systematically identified and evaluated. The strains of X. campestris pathogenic to citrus have been reclassified as four distinct infraspecific taxa within two species: X. citri and X. alfalfae. Only two pathovars (X. citri pv. citri and X. citri pv. aurantifolii) are responsible for the citrus bacterial canker thatpresents a major risk for the citrus industry in the EU. Seven entry pathways have been identified and evaluated. The likelihood of entry was rated unlikely for fruit, very likely for fruit plants for planting, moderately likely for ornamental plants for planting and unlikely for leaves and twigs. The uncertainty of probability of entry was rated as high. The probability of establishment was rated as moderately likely to likely with a medium uncertainty because host plants are widely present in EU areas where environmental conditions are suitable. Once established, spread would be likely with a low uncertainty. The impact of the disease, even if control measures are applied, was rated as moderate to major with a medium uncertainty. The disease would cause yield losses in areas where citrus is the main crop, increase the need for control measures and create environmental problems.The combined EU regulations have been shown to be effective in preventing the introduction of X. citri pv. citri or X. citri pv. aurantifolii in the EU, as no outbreaks of citrus canker in the EU territory have been reported.

The Panel conducted a risk assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa for the EU. P. citricarpa causes citrus black spot (CBS) and is absent from the EU. Under the scenario of absence of specific risk reduction options against P. citricarpa, the risk of entry of P. citricarpa was rated as likely for citrus plants for planting and citrus fruit with leaves, moderately likely for citrus fruit without leaves, unlikely for citrus leaves for cooking and very unlikely for Tahiti lime fruit without leaves. Establishment was rated as moderately likely because susceptible hosts are widely available and environmental conditions in many EU citrus-growing areas are suitable (with high uncertainty) for P. citricarpa ascospore production, dispersal and infection. Current fungicide treatments will not prevent establishment. Environmental favourability is increased by the use of sprinkler and micro-sprinkler irrigation in some EU citrus-growing locations. Spread with trade was rated as moderately likely. Model results indicate that CBS epidemics are most likely to develop in EU citrus-growing areas in late summer to early autumn and in some locations also in late spring to early summer. CBS is expected to affect mainly lemons and late-maturing sweet orange and mandarin varieties, with moderate negative consequences for the production of fresh fruit, but with environmental impact of additional fungicide treatments. Negative consequences would be minor for early-maturing citrus varieties and minimal for citrus for processing. Uncertainty concerning the consequences is high, mainly because of the lack of data on critical climate response parameters for the pathogen but also because information on impact in areas at the limits of the current distribution is scarce. Since eradication and containment are difficult, phytosanitary measures should focus on preventing entry. Current phytosanitary measures are evaluated to be effective, with the exception of pest-free production sites.

The Panel conducted a pest risk assessment for Xanthomonas campestris (all strains pathogenic to Citrus) for the EU territory and an assessment of the effectiveness of present EU requirements against Xanthomonas strains pathogenic to citrus. The risk assessment was conducted under the scenario of absence of the current specific EU plant health legislation and the assumption that citrus-exporting countries apply measures to reduce yield and quality losses. Risk reduction options were systematically identified and evaluated. The strains of X. campestris pathogenic to citrus have been reclassified as four distinct infraspecific taxa within two species: X. citri and X. alfalfae. Only two pathovars (X. citri pv. citri and X. citri pv. aurantifolii) are responsible for the citrus bacterial canker that presents a major risk for the citrus industry in the EU. Seven entry pathways have been identified and evaluated. The likelihood of entry was rated unlikely for fruit, very likely for fruit plants for planting, moderately likely for ornamental plants for planting and unlikely for leaves and twigs. The uncertainty of probability of entry was rated as high. The probability of establishment was rated as moderately likely to likely with a medium uncertainty because host plants are widely present in EU areas where environmental conditions are suitable. Once established, spread would be likely with a low uncertainty. The impact of the disease, even if control measures are applied, was rated as moderate to major with a medium uncertainty. The disease would cause yield losses in areas where citrus is the main crop, increase the need for control measures and create environmental problems.The combined EU regulations have been shown to be effective in preventing the introduction of X. citri pv. citri or X. citri pv. aurantifolii in the EU, as no outbreaks of citrus canker in the EU territory have been reported.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for the grapevine insect pest, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (an aphid species commonly known as phylloxera), in the European Union, identified risk reduction options and evaluated the effectiveness of the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry was assessed as potentially very likely for plants intended for planting (although the pathway is closed by Article 15 of Annex III) and very unlikely for fruit for consumption because transport and transfer would be very difficult, even though phylloxera has a moderate likelihood of association with the pathway. Establishment is very likely as the pest is already very widespread in the risk assessment area, occurring almost everywhere Vitis plants are present. Successful eradication is very unlikely and small populations can persist undetected in the soil. Spread within the EU is considered to be very likely because there are no effective barriers, it can disperse up to a few kilometres aided by the wind and it can readily be moved long distances with planting material. Grafting with resistant rootstocks throughout the EU ensures that the production of fruit and plants for planting is rarely affected by phylloxera infestations and, if so, only at a limited level. The Panel considers that the IIAII measures for D. vitifoliae do not assist in preventing entry and are ineffective in preventing spread because detection is so difficult. Restricting movements of plants for planting to cuttings grafted on resistant rootstocks, in combination with treatments (e.g. particularly fungicides and hot water treatments), was found to be the most effective risk reduction option. Limitations in the Cyprus protected zone regulations were identified.

The Panel conducted a risk assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa for the EU. P. citricarpa causes citrus black spot (CBS) and is absent from the EU. Under the scenario of absence of specific risk reduction options against P. citricarpa, the risk of entry of P. citricarpa was rated as likely for citrus plants for planting and citrus fruit with leaves, moderately likely for citrus fruit without leaves, unlikely for citrus leaves for cooking and very unlikely for Tahiti lime fruit without leaves. Establishment was rated as moderately likely because susceptible hosts are widely available and environmental conditions in many EU citrus-growing areas are suitable (with high uncertainty) for P. citricarpa ascospore production, dispersal and infection. Current fungicide treatments will not prevent establishment. Environmental favourability is increased by the use of sprinkler and micro-sprinkler irrigation in some EU citrus-growing locations. Spread with trade was rated as moderately likely. Model results indicate that CBS epidemics are most likely to develop in EU citrus-growing areas in late summer to early autumn and in some locations also in late spring to early summer. CBS is expected to affect mainly lemons and late-maturing sweet orange and mandarin varieties, with moderate negative consequences for the production of fresh fruit, but with environmental impact of additional fungicide treatments. Negative consequences would be minor for early-maturing citrus varieties and minimal for citrus for processing. Uncertainty concerning the consequences is high, mainly because of the lack of data on critical climate response parameters for the pathogen but also because information on impact in areas at the limits of the current distribution is scarce. Since eradication and containment are difficult, phytosanitary measures should focus on preventing entry. Current phytosanitary measures are evaluated to be effective, with the exception of pest-free production sites.

The Panel on Plant Health assessed the risk to plant health from Phytophthora fragariae for the European Union and evaluated the current EU legislation and possible risk reduction options. The pest is present in most areas of Europe except southern Mediterranean regions. Entry through the plants for planting, but not seeds, pathway, is assessed as a major pathway, with the probability of entry rated as unlikely and the uncertainty as high. The probability of establishment is likely in the absence of existing disease control practices with low uncertainty. The probability of spread in the absence of a scheme for the production of certified plants for planting is considered to be very likely. With certification, spread is considered to be unlikely to moderately likely, depending on the inclusion of testing for the pathogen as part of certification. These ratings have medium uncertainty. Potential impact is rated as minor with medium uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU legislation regarding the introduction and spread of P. fragariae. According to the regulation the import of Fragaria plants for planting, other than seeds, is prohibited from specified countries, whereas for import of these plants from other countries and for movement of these plants within the EU special requirements with respect to P. fragariae must be fulfilled. If the current legislation specific to P. fragariae were removed, no major consequences would be expected, unless the industry simultaneously ceased its voluntary certification activity. This is largely because of the important level of protection afforded to the industry by the widely used certification schemes for Fragaria, which significantly reduce the risks of entry, establishment, spread and impact. Certification schemes for the movement of Fragaria plants for planting offer the greatest efficiency and feasibility and the least uncertainty, especially if effective detection is incorporated into them.

The Scientific Panel on Plant Health (PLH) of the European Food Safety Authority was established in 2006 as the reference EU body for risk assessment in the plant health area in the frame of phytosanitary measures to prevent the introduction and further spread of organisms harmful (pests) to plants or plants products. Proper diagnosis and detection are critical for the categorization and assessment of pests that are or may qualify as quarantine pests, and for appropriate application of phytosanitary measures. In carrying out its responsibilities, the PLH Panel is frequently faced by the changes in taxonomy and nomenclature: these may often lead to a re-evaluation of previous pest records, concerns with published literature, and in some cases with the increased use of molecular taxonomic and identification tools. Pathogens that were previously considered strains/varieties of a single species, in some cases have now been elevated to specific status. In other cases pathogens previously recognised as species complexes have now been partitioned into named species, using molecular criteria rather than traditional methods. The problems that can arise are illustrated in this Chapter by examples representative of the main pathogen taxa.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Bemisia tabaci and the viruses it transmits, including an evaluation of risk reduction options and an assessment of the effectiveness of the special requirements linked to B. tabaci and the viruses listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. B. tabaci and a large number of viruses transmitted by this polyphagous insect occur in subtropical and tropical climates around the world. Five entry pathways for B. tabaci and associated viruses were identified, with the plants for planting pathway being most significant and rated for entry of insects and viruses as likely and moderately likely, respectively. The most invasive B. tabaci species and several of its associated viruses responsible for severe diseases in major European food crops are established outdoors in coastal Mediterranean regions. Because of similar climate requirements and host plant preferences, B. tabaci and associated viruses currently not present in Europe are likely to establish within the temperature limits set for B. tabaci. Trade between European Member States allows B. tabaci to reach greenhouses in northern Europe, including those in areas with protected zone status. Because of the cool climate, establishment and spread outdoors of B. tabaci is rated unlikely for northern Europe. This situation is likely to continue even under a climatic scenario with an increase in temperature of +2 °C. B. tabaci -transmitted viruses cause severe diseases with major negative impact on crop production when risk reduction measures are not used. Risk reduction options will also apply to B. tabaci and viruses new to Europe. Risk reductions options are evaluated in terms of reducing B. tabaci populations, crop infestations, virus incidence and the impact of diseases. © European Food Safety Authority, 2013

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Eutetranychus orientalis in the European Union (EU) and evaluated the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the plants for planting pathway is assessed as very likely, while entry through other pathways is estimated as moderately likely to unlikely owing to the different probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely in Mediterranean areas and from moderately likely to unlikely in non-Mediterranean areas, because of unfavourable environmental conditions. Spread is rated as very likely because of the many ways the pest can spread, its polyphagy and the wide distribution of hosts. Impact is rated as minor, with an expected increase in the damage when populations of natural enemies are severely affected by control measures and/or when environmental conditions are stressful for the host. However, the lack of information resulted in an overall medium level of uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of E. orientalis from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for this pest(Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids) is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V). However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute an extremely small proportion of the potential host plants of E. orientalis, the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing further introduction and spread of E. orientalis in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when applied together.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Liriomyza huidobrensis and Liriomyza trifolii in the European Union and identified and evaluated the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry on the principal pathways (plants for planting, cut flowers and leafy vegetables) is assessed as likely as the pests are regularly associated with the pathways at origin, survival during transport or storage is high and only partially affected by current pest management procedures, and transfer to a suitable host is likely as their hosts are so widespread. Establishment is rated as very likely because both species have established populations in most countries of the EU, with transient populations occurring outdoors in non-Mediterranean areas. Spread within the EU is considered to be likely because the pests can readily be moved with plant material. The magnitude of the potential consequences is rated as minor for both species in Mediterranean areas. In non-Mediterranean countries it is moderate for both species in protected crops but, outdoors, impacts are minor for L. huidobrensis and minimal for L. trifolii. The current regulations to prevent entry and spread were found to be only partially effective as interceptions are still being made, cut branches with foliage and leafy vegetables other than celery are excluded, and the methods for inspection and the treatments required to confirm pest free areas, places of production and consignments are not clearly specified. Removal of the legislation would have some advantages and disadvantages but may not have a major effect. The regulations could be tightened by including additional commodities, clearly prescribing the inspection procedures and the appropriate treatments to be used and combining these with other measures, e.g. screening. The application of protected zones to areas where the pests are not yet present can be applied to help prevent further spread.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Chrysanthemum stunt viroid (CSVd) and identified and evaluated risk reduction options, particularly those listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Three entry pathways were identified, with plants for planting being the most important and rated as moderately likely. CSVd is recorded in some EU Member States with a limited distribution and is regulated on chrysanthemum; host plants are widely cultivated in greenhouses and outdoors. Therefore, establishment is very likely. Shortdistance spread within a crop is likely, whereas short-distance spread between different species is unlikely to moderately likely. For vegetatively propagated species, in the absence of an efficient certification system, longdistance spread is very likely and a major impact would be expected on chrysanthemum, with associated yield and quality losses. However, under the existing certification scheme for chrysanthemum plant propagation material, the probability of spread through infected cuttings is largely reduced and the direct consequences of viroid outbreaks are expected to be minor. Minimal impact is predicted for other ornamental hosts and a minor impact for solanaceous vegetable crops. The indirect effects of CSVd are considered to be limited, with the exception of eradication. Risk reduction options addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material are likely to be the most effective and feasible. These include the current EU measures, as well as a statutory certification system with associated statutory import requirements or, failing that, but potentially less effective, the use of voluntary industry standards. It is difficult to disentangle the benefits of the current legislation from those of the industry-developed chrysanthemum certification system. The high efficacy of current measures is supported by the absence or limited presence of CSVd in the EU and by the limited number of interceptions and findings. Possib

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

The purpose of the Prassis project (acronym of Pest risk assessment in the European Community: inventory of data sources) is to review and to produce an inventory of international and national key information and data sources, necessary to conduct the risk assessment of harmful organisms. A protocol was developed for inventorying the sources available in literature, in web-sites, in databases, and in software, in a structured, transparent, and efficient manner. The protocol was designed in such a way that the data sources inventoried could also be useful for future risk assessments in other fields and / or connected with other databases. About 250 descriptors (metadata) were defined for describing the data sources. Metadata for evaluation of data quality (strengths and weaknesses), accessibility for EFSA, and suitability for pest risk assessment were also included. International standards and codes were used whenever possible. The protocol was implemented in a userfriendly web-portal. The web-portal was designed to facilitate on-line entry of new data sources and on-line modification or updating of the existing ones. The web-portal also makes it possible to search the data sources within the inventory by using both basic and advanced search procedures, and to summarize results in a clear and concise way. A database was developed containing international and national information and data sources. The inventory covers the 27 European Member States and 34 third Countries. About 500 sources were entered in the web-based portal; because some sources contain information on different aspects of pest risk analysis, there are more than 600 records of interest. The project has three main weaknesses: i) although very large, the database is incomplete; ii) procedures for evaluating the quality of the sources included in the inventory can be improved; iii) the practical use of web-portal functionalities has not been thoroughly tested. Possible solutions are provided. 1

The main objectives of the Mopest project (acronym of Models for pest‟s epidemiology: review, documentation, and evaluation for Pest Risk Analysis) were to carry out a review and to produce an inventory of the models describing the establishment, development, and / or spread of plant pests on crops in Europe. This inventory should support the EFSA Panel on Plant Health in providing independent scientific advice on the risk of the spread, establishment, or development of organisms (plant pests) harmful to plants, plant products, or biodiversity; therefore, the inventory considers those models that can be potentially used for accurate and robust quantitative prediction of pest risk through the use of variables related to climate and / or plant growth and development as input factors. A protocol was developed for reviewing literature sources describing models relevant to the Mopest project. This protocol includes: i) a search strategy for retrieving information sources; and ii) a series of descriptors (metadata) that describe each source. The search strategy was developed according to the principles of the “systematic literature review”. About 200 metadata were defined for describing each model included in the inventory; international standards and codes were used whenever possible. The protocol was implemented in a user-friendly web-portal. The web-portal was designed to facilitate the on-line entry of new models and the on-line modification or updating of the existing ones. The web-portal also makes it possible to search the models within the inventory by using both basic and advanced search procedures, and to summarize results in a clear and concise way. A database was developed containing models related to wheat pests and quarantine pests for Europe as listed in the EPPO A1 list. About 200 models were entered in the web-based portal.

FA4TC7/NL236, Biofuels are being pursued for their potential greenhouse gas emissions benefits, among other reasons. In order to maximize productivity, avoid food-fuel conflicts, and minimize GHG emissions, many “advanced” biofuel feedstock crops, such as those desired by the aviation community, are under consideration based on traits, such as high biomass and/or seed production, tolerance of marginal cultivation conditions, and short generation times, that may also be predictors of potential invasiveness risk. Biofuel-related invasion risks can be mitigated through careful feedstock crop selection and cultivation techniques developed from the invasion science literature. Existing voluntary best practices and some state and federal regulatory requirements in the United States recommend and/or require the use of such risk mitigation strategies. However, other policies and programs allow or provide incentives for biofuel production without conditions requiring the use of these strategies. This study synthesizes information on the scientific knowledge of invasive species predictors and their use (or absence) in voluntary codes and United States regulatory frameworks and incentive programs. The study highlights the existing tools and approaches for assessing invasion risk and avoiding the introduction and spread of invasive species as a result of biofuel feedstock cultivation. A well-coordinated combination of species restrictions, biosecurity requirements, and incentives for selection of less risky biofuel crops may effectively balance the desire for increased biofuel production while minimizing invasion risk.