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The use of paper is widespread. It could be used in many purposes, starting from printing industry, over different type of packaging etc. At the same time significant amount of waste paper is generated. As material, paper has excellent recycling properties. Paper could be recycled several times, retaining its original quality. The main goal of this research is to present the current situation in the management of waste paper in the Republic of Serbia. It is evident that awareness of citizens is not satisfying in terms of paper disposal. This is also shown by surveys carried out in the cities Zrenjanin and Novi Sad, which can present the general situation in our country. The research presents the public opinion focused on potential causes of low recycling rate. Using STAN software and Material Flow Analysis (MFA), based on the available amount of waste paper, it is estimated which amount of paper is used as a secondary raw material, and which part of the waste paper ends on sanitary and unsanitary landfills. The results of the assessment may be the starting point for some further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The repository of the Faculty of Chemistry, University of Belgrade, and the Innovation Center – Cherry presents a well-organized digital library of the institution’s scientific outputs. For the purpose of this paper a research was done on the change in the number of citations contained in the repository, based on data from the external application Authors, projects, publications. The application has integrated parameters for examining the number of citations from Scopus and Web of Science databases. In this paper the change in number of citations from publications which appear in Altmetric – a platform for alternative metric were also used. Two methods of research were applied: the first method examines the change in number of citations for all deposited records of publications in the repository, and the second method enables to examine the change in number of citations on the level of all records of a specific author. The author whose publications were examined for the research via the second method was pronounced the most cited author in the yearly report for 2021 of the Faculty of Chemistry. Both methods examine three types of records with varying levels of accessibility: permanetly restricted, available after an embargo period (green open access) and permanent open access (gold open access). The metadata of all three kinds of publications recorded in the Cherry repository are accessible to the public with strict control of the librarian – repository manager. The research subject of this paper notes the difference that arises in the number of citations of individual records in September 2021 and a year later, in September 2022. The aim of the paper is to present a possible method to establish a correlation between the accessibility of publications and their citation count. There is a special regard to publications in the green open access, which form the basis for monitoring the relevance of the repository to the Faculty of Chemistry, University of Belgrade, and the Innovation Center as well as to other institutions which are parts of the established infrastructure of repositories in Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of the most significant organizational factors on primary school achievements, with a note that the achievement of the school is expressed through the quality of outcome knowledge. The research was conducted on a sample of 460 employees, from 21 primary schools, of which 439 are professionals and 21 are principals in the South Bačka County, Republic of Serbia. The collected data were processed using the Gretl software and AMOS for modelling structural equations. More precisely, the research is based on the application of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. A neural network based on a standard multilayer perceptron model was used in the paper to test the validity of the obtained results of the AMOS model. The results of the research show that school management is the most important factor in school achievement and that this influence is most pronounced through teaching staff and school infrastructure. The results, also show that teachers' competencies have the strongest direct influence on the quality of outcome knowledge. The results obtained indicate that decision-makers and creators of social policies must pay special attention to the selection of school principals as well as their professional education, while school principals to the selection of teachers. Future researchers are recommended to use the Sobel test to precisely determine the indirect influences of school management on school achievement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the genus Vitrea Fitzinger, 1833 in Serbia is reviewed. All previous literature data on this genus from Serbia are summarised and used to discuss its distribution in the country and create distribution maps, supplemented by new material collected by the authors. All Serbian species are figured. For each species, a brief description of the examined specimens, data on previous findings in Serbia, the material (including types) that were analysed, the distribution and habitats in Serbia they inhabit, as well as remarks on specific species are given. A new species, Vitrea virgo Gojšina & Dedov, sp. nov., is described from a pit on Mt. Devica in eastern Serbia. Vitrea pygmaea (O. Boettger, 1880) is reported for the first time for the territory of Serbia. As some Vitrea species have a narrow geographical range and prefer certain habitats, they are particularly vulnerable to habitat changes, which is also discussed in the paper. An identification key for all hitherto known Serbian species is given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem that plastic bags cause to the environment is one of the most significant environmental problems. Not much attention is paid to this problem on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, and there is a gap where scientific research is concerned. In addition to mitigating this gap, the aim of this paper is to identify the basic factors which reduce the consumption of light (disposable) plastic bags using exploratory factor analysis. The results of the conducted analysis show that the development of environmental awareness, the availability of alternatives, social norms, and economic instruments that could be implemented in the future have a positive impact on the change in consumer behaviour on the territory of the Republic of Serbia when it comes to the use of plastic bags. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an approach is proposed for assessing the performance of experts in the group from two perspectives: (1) individual consistencies and (2) deviations from the group decision. The quality of performance of the experts is based on combining the standard and rough analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). The statistical method CRITIC is used to derive weights for the TOPSIS method before the experts are assessed based on demonstrated consistency and deviations from the group. Common performance indicators, such as consistency ratio, Euclidean distance, compatibility, and Spearman's correlation coefficient, are proposed for re-grouping experts before making the final decisions. A genetic algorithm enables the efficient solving of this complex clustering problem. Implementing the described approach and method can be useful in comparable assessment frameworks. A critical aspect is conducting a thorough pre-assessment of the competence of potential decision makers, often referred to as experts who may not consistently exhibit apparent expertise. The competence of decision makers (which does not have to be associated with compatibility) is evidenced by selected consistency parameters, and in a way, a pre-assessment of their competence follows Plato's 'government of the wise' principle. In the presented study, the compatibility of individuals in the group with the collective position (group decision) is measured by parameters related to their compatibility with the group solution and statistical deviation while ranking decision elements. The proposed multi-model-based approach stands out for its resilience in conducting thorough pre-assessment of the quality (competence) of potential decision makers, often regarded as experts who might not consistently display evident expertise. The wetland study area in Serbia is used as an example application, where seven measures for reducing the risk of drought were evaluated by twelve experts coming from different sectors and with different backgrounds and expertise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global scientific community is intensively promoting energy-plus buildings. Following the leading world trends, this paper presents a new energy-plus building concept—elevational earth-sheltered buildings with three different types of horizontal overhang photovoltaic-integrated panels: wooden support columns covered with clay tiles, steel pipes as support columns covered with sheet steel, and concrete support columns with concrete coverage. In this instance, the specific multi-numerical case study building model for the city of Kragujevac (located in central Serbia with favorable climatic conditions) was performed over 7 months (from 1 October to 30 April), taking into account the soil temperature, the effects of solar shading, the performance of the heating system—a ground source heat pump—and the characteristics of the artificial and automatic lighting control system. The simulation results show that the optimal depth of a horizontal overhang (energy-plus status) depends on the occupant's habits, in addition to meteorological conditions. The presented methodology can be used for any other location, both in Europe and the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of plum and cherry, as stone fruit species, occupy a significant place in the plant agricultural activity of the Republic of Serbia. In this paper, on the basis of data from selected family holdings in the southern part of Serbia, the production results and evaluation of the economic justification of these two fruit species were investigated. Data collected through a survey were used for the research, and the economic evaluation was performed using static calculative methods. The most important economic indicators determined were: cost price, net profit (average amount), accumulativeness expressed through the rate and time period of investment capital. When producing plums, the average annual financial result is from 503,490 RSD/ha to 594,340 RSD/ha. The analysis determined that by investing RSD 100/ha in production of plum, 40 RSD is accumulated, and the average annual net profit is 425,313 RSD/ha. From the average amounts of net profit, investments made in raising plum trees plantations (1,080,000 RSD/ha) can be recovered during the third year of its exploitation. Although the yield of cherry per unit area is lower compared to the yield of plum, better economic results in the amount of 535,800 RSD/ha to 682,920 RSD/ha are achieved due to a much more favorable selling price per unit measure. For every RSD 100 invested in cherry production, 48 RSD of accumulation is achieved. The average net profit amounts to 492,099 RSD/ha, and the investments made in raising plantations of cherry trees (1,020,000 RSD/ha) can be recovered in the third year of its exploitation. In recent years, cherry have been very profitable fruit species in Serbia, due to the high demand and favorable selling price. With permanent education of fruit producers, as well as with various support measures at the state and local level, it is possible to contribute to the improvement of the existing business and improve the profitability of plums and cherry production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From a global point of view, the Republic of Serbia has favorable conditions for cattle breeding and beef production, because there are favorable soil and climatic conditions, high production of roughage and fodder, available workforce, installed capacities of meat processing industries (for the production of beef and meat products) etc. However, it is not the only, or exclusive, parameter of the development of cattle production, because there are significant differences in the racial composition and production potential of cattle in certain production districts of the Republic of Serbia. The paper shows the period of the movement of the number of cattle, as one of the potentials for the production of beef, and the heifers that provide new heads for fattening. In the observed time period from 2012 to 2022, it is in permanent decline. According to the obtained data of the calculated value of base and chain indices for the observed time period of ten years, there is no hint of stabilization of breeding and increase in the number of cattle for slaughter. The average number of cattle in the Republic of Serbia was 898 thousand head with a tendency to decrease from 2.5% to 3.0%. At the end of 2022, the estimate of slaughter outside slaughterhouses in December was reduced to 16 thousand heads, however, the number of slaughtered heads increased from May and reached its maximum in October with 20.61 thousand heads and in November when there were 26.45 thousand heads. From this data, it can be seen that the total number of heads has been decreasing since December, which means that there has been stagnation in the number of slaughtered heads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to the subject-matter theoretical knowledge acquired during undergraduate and especially postgraduate studies future young scientists must also acquire the accompanying academic skills. This skillset will enable them to plan and conduct their research in accordance with the scientific method, but also to present the results of that research in suitable forms. No result and no new knowledge derived from research is valuable in itself, as long as it is not presented to the scientific community and society as a whole. This dissemination is most often done through the peer-reviewed publishing in scientific journals. Hence, acquiring the skill of writing scientific publications must be an integral part of education, e.g., part of the acquired academic skills. However, that is not currently the case in all scientific environments and a significant number of (young) scientists and researchers do not possess all the necessary knowledge and skills to write academic articles, especially when it comes to the standardized format and technical preparations. This skill-gap often results in a significant number of submitted papers to be rejected or sent back for resubmission even before they reach the Editor's desk. In an effort to provide an academic-writing-skill resource for young academics in the field of chemistry, this article points out the general principles of a well-written and prepared paper, indicates the most common errors and omissions, and suggests ways to prevent them. In addition, the article considers the current state of academic skills in less developed scientific environments, with Serbia as an example, and some of the causes of such a state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the possible impact of the thermal soil regime on the occurrence of forest fires in the Zaječar administrative district in Eastern Serbia. The study uses data on soil temperature from the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Serbia and the ERA5-Land gridded reanalysis dataset for monthly temperature and volumetric soil water of the soil level 1 (0-7 cm), and soil level 2 (7-28 cm) with horizontal resolution of 0.1°C (approximately 12 km × 12 km) during the period of 2009-2021. Differences in soil temperature at depths of 2 cm, 5 cm, 10 cm, and 20 cm at the meteorological station in Zaječar for the periods 1961-1990 and 2009-2021 are observed. By analyzing the data on the registered number of forest fires for the period 2009-2021, pronounced oscillations in the dynamics of forest fires can be observed. The minimum number of forest fires (0) is registered in 2014, when the maximum of soil moisture in the soil levels 1 and 2 is observed. A high number of forest fires corresponds to high soil temperatures in 2012 and 2017. Soils drier and hotter than the average are registered in 47.0% of all months with the fire occurrences. About 50% of fires occurred in dry and hot soils during 2012 and 2017. This percentage was zero in 2014, when there were no fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subject of this paper is human resources in the field of science and technology in the Republic of Serbia. The aim is to establish the state and tendencies regarding the number and structure of human resources in the mentioned field. Accordingly, several research questions were defined. Open data (2018-2021) of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia were used. The results showed that the average number of employees who have either higher education or are employed in the field of science and technology was 991.9 thousand and on average their number was growing. The majority were women, whose number and share increased on average. The average number of employees who have higher education and are employed in the field of science and technology was 501.4 thousand and their number was growing on average, including people of both genders. The majority were women, whose share was constant with a tendency to minimal decrease. The average number of employees aged 15-74 who are employed in the field of science and technology was 731.2 thousand and on average their number was growing, including persons of both genders. The majority were women, whose share was constant with a tendency to minimal increase. The most important sector in the field of science and technology was education. It is concluded that there are positive tendencies regarding the number of human resources in the field of science and technology in Serbia, especially when it comes to women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many methods exist for solving the problem of evaluating efficiency in different processes. They are divided into two basic groups, parametric and non-parametric methods, which can have significant differences in the results. In this study, the authors consider the process of assessing the business climate depending on realized foreign investments. Due to the expected difference in efficiency assessment using different approaches, the goal of this paper is to create an optimization model of an ensemble for efficiency assessment that uses both types of methods with the aim of creating a symmetrical approach that achieves better results than each type of method individually. The proposed solution simultaneously analyzes the impact of different factors on foreign investments in order to determine the most important factors and thus enable each local government to ensure the best possible efficiency in this process. The innovative idea of this study is in the inclusion of classification and feature selection methods of machine learning to fulfill the set goal. Our research, focused on a specific case study in various cities across the Republic of Serbia, evaluated the effectiveness of that process. This study extends previous research and confirms the published results, highlighting the advantages of the newly proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Balkan region is rich in limestone deposits, which have created one of the largest hotspots of subterranean biodiversity. This paper gives an overview of the diversity of subterranean terrestrial arthropods in Resava Cave in eastern Serbia. This cave is protected and has the status of a natural monument. At the same time, it is one of the most visited caves in Serbia and its surroundings. Our study comprises the results of three years of biospeleological investigations of the famous Serbian cave in combination with data from the few available literature sources on the arthropod fauna of the cave. The arthropod samples were collected both manually and with pitfall traps. A total of 107 arthropod species from the four major subphyla were registered in the cave: 66 species of Hexapoda, 27 species of Chelicerata, 11 species of Myriapoda and three species of Crustacea. For four troglobitic, 16 troglophilic and 87 trogloxenic species recorded in the cave, descriptions of their microhabitats and information on their distribution in the cave are given. Considering the medium size of Resava Cave and the lack of permanent water flow in the two main levels on the one hand, and the large number of arthropod species recorded on the other, the cave is relatively rich in hypogean terrestrial arthropod fauna compared to other caves in Serbia that have been biospeleologically studied so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable consumption of construction materials is an important segment of sustainable development goals towards reducing climate change. Since the consumption of natural aggregates raises environmental concerns, there is an increasing demand for use of recycled aggregates (RAs), as it enhances social and environmental benefits and creates a market opportunity. This paper presents the practice of using recycled construction and demolition waste (CDW) in the Belgrade city area (Serbia) as a resource. Two groups of CDW from Vinča landfill site near Belgrade are analyzed: raw material before, and RAs after, construction of a recycling facility on site. Comprehensive characterization is performed (including particle size distribution, density, water and organic pollutants content, various mechanical resistances, flakiness index, etc.) and compilation of samples analyzed and compared to show a holistic overview. The test outputs in both groups show acceptable values and meet required standards, indicating that recycled CDW generated in the Belgrade area can be used as a substitute to natural aggregates. In addition to that, the environmental and economic benefits from this use as a substitute are analyzed and discussed, proving the substantial income from sold Ras and the landscaping benefits, as well as ecological and economic benefits from energy savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The right of religious organizations to independently decide on purely religious issues is one of the basic prerequisites is fundamental for upholding both communal and individual aspects of religiousfreedom. The scope and content of religious autonomy may differ depending on the model of the relationship between the state and churches and religious communities. The basic hypothesis of the paper is that the protection of religious autonomy in Serbia does not deviate from the general international standards established by international conventions for the protection of human rights and the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights. However, there remains an opportunity for enhancement, particularly concerning the protection of rights for various factions resulting from divisions within formerly unified religious entities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different capital structures and their impact on firm performance are one of the most studied topics in the finance literature. This study is an attempt to assess the impact of financial structure on profitability of agricultural enterprises in the Republic of Serbia, with the aim of evaluating the importance and nature of the contribution of the total, short-term and long-term aspects of debt to the success of the company. The financial performance of the selected sample of 38 medium and large agricultural enterprises in the Republic of Serbia was analysed in the period from 2018 to 2021. The findings of this paper indicate that total debt and short-term debt significantly determine the return on equity, while the effect of long-term debt is insignificant. The nature of the impact of all three aspects of financial structure is negative. The inclusion of size and growth of sales in the regression models showed that only annual sales growth significantly positively determines profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the first three articles that appeared in the Agora on Kosovo, this paper argues that there is a right of unilateral secession based on the right of external self-determination. According to the authors, the latter right is applicable outside a colonial context, in limited circumstances resembling the colonial paradigm. Modern customary international law provides the legal basis for a right of “remedial secession”, an argument that is supported by relevant State and institutional practice. After having discussed the conditions of this right and its legal basis, the authors apply their findings to the Kosovo case, in order to answer the question whether the Kosovo Albanians had a right of unilateral secession under international law. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is among the most common genetic metabolic lipid disorders characterised by elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels from birth and a significantly higher risk of developing premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The majority of the current pediatric guidelines for clinical management of children and adolescents with FH does not consider the impact of genetic variations as well as characteristics of vascular phenotype as assessed by recently developed non-invasive imaging techniques. We propose a combined integrated approach of cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment and clinical management of children with FH incorporating current risk assessment profile (LDL-C levels, traditional CV risk factors and familial history) with genetic and non-invasive vascular phenotyping. Based on the existing data on vascular phenotype status, this panel recommends that all children with FH and cIMT ≥0.5 mm should receive lipid lowering therapy irrespective of the presence of CV risk factors, family history and/or LDL-C levels Those children with FH and cIMT ≥0.4 mm should be carefully monitored to initiate lipid lowering management in the most suitable time. Likewise, all genetically confirmed children with FH and LDL-C levels ≥4.1 mmol/L (160 mg/dL), should be treated with lifestyle changes and LLT irrespective of the cIMT, presence of additional RF or family history of CHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction/purpose: The digitization of healthcare has gained particular importance in the years since the emergence of COVID-19 and also has become one of the primary goals of the Government of the Republic of Serbia. Telemedicine is a good solution when the patient cannot come to a healthcare facility. Mobile healthcare applications are already widely used, but in both fields the important challenge is data security. The aim of this paper is to review solutions for data security in mobile healthcare from the technical side and possible challenges in the process of digitization of the healthcare system in Serbia. Methods: This review is based on current papers in this area, on the available relevant literature and the authors' many years of experience in this field. Experiences in the process of digitization of healthcare in Serbia are based on available articles and regulations. Finally, possible challenges are presented from the authors' perspective based on everything presented in the field of data security in mobile healthcare. Results: The analysis of the papers reviewed from the point of view of data security showed that users are often ready to sacrifice their privacy for the sake of convenience provided by mobile applications. Conclusion: Based on the review of the papers and clear data security requirements that include the presented safeguards, one of the main tasks of the entire community is to raise awareness of information security and awareness of the need for cyber hygiene of each individual, which is the basis for the safe use of e-health services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the aspects of criminal law as regards the suppression of doping in sports in the law of the Republic of Serbia. The Law on the Prevention of Doping in Sports prescribes two criminal offences, namely Facilitating the Use of Doping Substances and the Unauthorized Production and Circulation of Doping Substances. These are criminal acts that are prescribed by the so-called secondary criminal legislation of the Republic of Serbia. The analysis of these criminal offences is afforded the central place in this paper. At the same time, for the sake of systematicity, numerous common features of these criminal acts were separated and analysed, such as protective object, object of action (doping agent), consequence of the criminal act, guilt, special intention, etc., and then their other features were separately considered. It is noticeable that the criminal offenses from the Law on the Prevention of Doping in Sports have corresponding regulatory shortcomings, above all they do not include certain important aspects related to the suppression of doping in sports, so certain proposals de lege ferenda were made based on the criminal offenses from the Criminal Code. The paper also gives a cursory review of the most important international documents in this area, i.e. the two most important documents ratified by the Republic of Serbia, namely the International Convention against Doping in Sport and the European Convention against Doping in Sport, bearing in mind that these acts were the basis for adoption of a special anti-doping law in our country. Additionally, the paper clarifies what is considered doping in sports according to the provisions of the positive law of Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse the attitudes of students of sports towards the use of gender-sensitive language in the Serbian language. As the correlation between language and gender has been a hot topic in Serbia in the last two years, this paper presents an overview of some of the studies related to language, gender and sports. The theoretical section of this paper covers some main terms such as gender-sensitive language and the connection among language, gender and sport. The aim of the study conducted for the purposes of this paper was to determine whether male and female students of sports have positive or negative attitudes toward the use of gendersensitive language in contemporary society and in their everyday speech. The study was conducted by using an anonymous survey with open-ended and closed questions, and it included 281 participants. The study results show that students of sports are still not aware of the increasingly widespread use of gender-sensitive language, and that they are not interested in learning about the theoretical aspects of this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the semantic aspect of the effect of populism in power on parliamentarism. The research focuses on the case of Serbia between 2001 and 2022, which corresponds to the post-Milošević era of contemporary Serbian political history and includes a decade before and after the populist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) took power in 2012. Drawing on the traditions of conceptual history and rhetorical political analysis, this paper reconstructs the debate over the concept of parliamentarism in Serbian parliamentary debates during the period under observation in order to analyze how populist agents' interpretation and use of the concept of parliamentarism related to and affected established conceptual conventions. The paper argues that the excessive centralization of power in the hands of the populist executive, which marked the first decade of SNS rule, was accompanied by SNS deputies' attempt to redefine the concept of parliamentarism through the rhetorical reconstruction of its internal morphology. This attempt was manifested in SNS deputies' contestation of the established conventions of articulating the concept of parliamentarism with the concepts of parliamentary sovereignty, which implied the superiority of parliament in the institutional system of the polity, and ministerial responsibility, understood as the effective scrutiny of the executive by the institution of parliament as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the resilience of the farmers, which is defined as prudent. The adjective "prudent" stands here for virtue, for the actions that may not always be rational in an economic sense but are prudent from social and cultural sustainability and risk-management points of view. By relying on ethnographic research findings from rural Serbia and Kosovo, the paper argues that prudent resilience is almost always multisectoral, which enables farmers to manage parallel threats, amortize their negative consequences, ensure forward-looking, and at the same time maintain their ethical threshold. Prudent resilience as a virtuous practice cannot be measured, which is a trend imposed by global sustainability agendas. By measuring resilience, there is a danger of perpetuating the image of farmers as victims and not as competent and self-confident managers of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper women's leadership will be reviewed through the professional biographies of two women who, in the role of director, managed the stage presentation of folk dance and music in Serbia. One of them is Olga Skovran, who laid the foundation of folklore professionalism in Serbia and the region and established the Ensemble "Kolo". She was the Ensemble's general manager from 1948 to 1965. The other woman is Snežana Jovanović, who has been the head of the Folk Dance and Song Ensemble of Kosovo and Metohija "Venac" from Gračanica since 2013. This paper will reflect on the professional positions of these two female figures who worked in historically different times. In addition, special attention will be given to defining leadership within two temporal and spatial dimensions, as well as the competences required for leading a professional ensemble in specific political, economic, artistic, and other conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with the state and the issues of special libraries and libraries of science and research institutes and institutions in the Republic of Serbia between 2019 and 2022. After efforts to define the concept of special libraries, the paper lists published papers dealing with the issues of special libraries. A separate part of the paper is devoted to the problem of categorization of special libraries. Further, the topic of special libraries is viewed through the prism of the legislature - the current Law on library and information work and the Rulebook on the national standards for performing the library and information work. The overview of registration of special libraries and libraries of science and research institutes and institutions into the Central Registry on February 28, 2023, is also provided. The following chapter is about representation of special libraries and libraries of science and research institutes and institutions in the Network of Libraries of Serbia database in the mentioned timeframe. Afterwards, the paper presents a detailed categorization of special libraries in the Network of Libraries of Serbia database based on the type of activity of the organization to which the library belongs. The overview of submitted statistical data on special libraries of cultural institutions (museums, archives, institutes for protection of monuments, theaters, etc.) is particularly detailed - these libraries are the most numerous at 96 and make up 36% of the total number of special libraries. Along with the overview of the working conditions of special libraries, the conclusion also suggests possible measures to improve their work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Environmental Protection Agency of the Republic of Serbia continuously monitors and collects air quality parameters at numerous measuring points throughout the country. The results revealed that the levels of air pollution recorded during the lockdown differed from those recorded during the same period the previous years. In this paper, we examined pollutant concentration trends in 2020 and a few previous years to determine the underlying causes of these trends. Pollutants are measured at five stations in Belgrade from the beginning of March to the end of July between 2015 and 2020. Because no hourly data were available, NO2, SO2, and suspended particles PM10 and PM2.5 are average daily values, whereas CO and ozone are daily 8-hour maximums. Concentrations were compared and averaged only when data for the same period over time was available, i.e. when comparing 2020 to previous years. The results were compared to the annual and daily limit values (for ozone and CO 8 hours maximum, respectively), as well as the variations in concentrations over time. The goal of calculating and displaying these values is to specifically identify a change in air pollution during the COVID-19 virus pandemic isolation period. In general, for Belgrade in 2020, NO2 concentrations are lower at four stations, PM2.5 concentrations are lower at two stations, PM10 concentrations are higher at one station and lower at another, and SO2 concentrations are higher than in previous years (2015-2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we complete pioneering research that indicates the very low frequency (VLF) signal amplitude and phase noise reductions, and short-period wave excitations and attenuations as new potential earthquake precursors. We consider changes in the VLF signal broadcast in Italy by the ICV transmitter and recorded in Serbia that start a few tens of minutes before earthquakes. The sampling interval of the analyzed data is 0.1 s. The main objectives of this study are (1) to complete this research in the time and frequency domains during the periods of the four earthquakes analyzed in the previous studies, and (2) to define the parameters of the VLF signal amplitude and phase in both domains that should be further examined in statistical analyses of the aforementioned potential earthquake precursors. In the first part of this study, we analyze the ICV signal amplitude in the frequency domain during the period around three earthquakes that occurred in November 2010 near the considered signal propagation path. Here, we apply the Fourier transform to the relevant recorded data. In the second part, we compare characteristics of the signal amplitude and phase noise reductions in the time domain, and wave excitations and attenuations in the frequency domain. The results of these comparisons indicate the parameters that should be analyzed in subsequent studies to confirm the connection of the considered VLF signal changes with seismic activity before earthquakes, and potentially establish procedures for their detection are: (a) the start and end times of the noise reductions in the time domain and the excited/attenuated waves in the frequency domain, (b) the differences in the corresponding times, and (c) the wave periods of wave excitations of both the signal amplitude and phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel count time-series model, named integer-valued Split-BREAK process of the first order, abbr. INSB(1) model. This process is examined in terms of its basic stochastic properties, such as stationarity, mean, variance and correlation structure. In addition, the marginal distribution, over-dispersion and zero-inflation properties of the INSB(1) process are also examined. To estimate the unknown parameters of the INSB(1) process, an estimation procedure based on probability generating functions (PGFs) is proposed. For the obtained estimators, their asymptotic properties, as well as the appropriate simulation study, are examined. Finally, the INSB(1) process is applied in the dynamic analysis of some real-world series, namely, the numbers of serious traffic accidents in Serbia and forest fires in Greece. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevention of domestic violence, timely and effective protection and support for victims, and multi-sector cooperation have become an important strategic direction of the Republic of Serbia since the adoption of the Law on Prevention of Domestic Violence. The authors put forward a hypothesis according to which the change in strategic direction and the emphasis on prevention contribute to: increasing the trust of citizens in the competent state bodies; better protection of victims; and reducing the number of the most serious cases of domestic violence – those that result in death. Using the statistical method, content analysis, and comparative and formal-legal analysis, the paper analyses the data of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Serbia, the Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Court related to domestic violence for the period between 2019 and 2021. The authors determine that: violence against women in partner relationships is the dominant type of domestic violence; that psychological violence is the most prevalent, occurring in 68% of the cases, followed by physical violence in 41% of the cases, and economic and sexual violence; that more than 1/3 of the possible perpetrators are repeat offenders, i.e. persons on whom emergency measures were previously imposed; that the victims do not participate in the adoption of individual protection plans; and that the death of the victim occurs despite the imposed emergency measures and the response of the competent state authorities. For these reasons, the authors emphasise the importance of protection on multiple tracks, and propose a series of measures and actions that should be taken by the competent state authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local cuisine is one of the foundations for how Serbian rural communities are presented to tourists. The desire for regional cuisine has recently increased, which has created opportunities for the promotion of regional and, most importantly, traditional production. The changing behaviours of travellers, who are becoming more conscious of the value of authenticity and quality when travelling, offer opportunities for rural areas to thrive while also creating a new horizon for tourism centered on the discovery of traditional cuisine and rural communities. This kind of travel can be compared to slow travel, which was developed in conjunction with the Slow Food movement. The Slow Food movement is a political and cultural movement with the goal of opposing the industrialisation of food production, promoting locally made, high-quality, sustainable food, and making a significant contribution to rural areas. Three guiding principles – good, clean, and fair – define what food should be and form the foundation of this movement. The major objective of this paper is to present the driving elements that have the biggest impact on tourists’ enthusiasm to visit rural tourist houses in Serbia. The research also seeks to determine how much the respondents’ desire to return to Serbia’s rural tourist households is influenced by motivating factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fast-paced life has led many people to practise more frequent and shorter trips to nature. City dwellers are particularly inclined to this. Protected areas (PAs), especially those in the vicinity of cities, provide a good opportunity for one-day excursions and nature-based recreation. The paper presents the results of research aimed at determining how many city dwellers in Serbia use the surrounding PAs for this kind of activities. On a random sample of 247 residents of the City of Vršac above the age of 15, the survey method, with the help of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (descriptive statistics, Chi-Square Test and Kruskal-Wallis Test), confirmed the research hypothesis that the utilization of these areas for recreation purposes was insufficient. Based on this and four additional hypotheses that were tested, conclusions are drawn that will serve to define guidelines for the development of excursion tourism in the studied areas and enrich the scarce local scholarly literature on the utilization of PAs for recreation by the urban population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main subject of this paper is analysis how digitalization can contribute in resolving legal concerns which were observed in practice and which are related to the fact that a share in the company is the object of common property of spouses. There are shown the main provisions of family law in Republic of Serbia, in order to approach the meaning of common property of spouses, as well as material and procedural provisions related to the company law in Republic of Serbia, regulations on registration of companies, data and documents which are of importance for the companies and which are the object of registration, Goal is to show that checking of fact is natural person who is achieving the share in the company married while undertaking legal actions in order to achieve that share, as well as automatic, electronic recording and centralized exchange of these data between public notaries and other public authorities in that process, in the future, can greater legal security in Republic of Serbia and in the neighborhood states-Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fixing the outcome of sports competitions is one of the biggest threats to the integrity of sports. Sport as a social phenomenon has its own individual and social dimension. However, the degree of benefit for the individual and society can be neutralized by phenomena that threaten the integrity of sports competitions. The goal of this research is to provide an answer to the question of whether criminal law, as a branch of law characterized by the ultima ratio character, should respond to the appearance of fixing the outcome of sports competitions, as well as what type of outcome fixing should be responded to within the framework of criminal law. This research also includes an analysis of certain provisions of the Council of Europe Convention on the manipulation of sports results in order to see the potential scope of the Convention in terms of influence on the criminal legislation of countries that ratify the convention. In the last part of the paper, the criminal offense of fixing the outcome of the competition from Art. 208a. Criminal Code of the Republic of Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on the research findings of the survey and a review of the scientific and professional literature, this paper seeks to indicate a correlation between vaccine hesitancy and national security. On the one hand, the paper argues that health is of particular concern to the modern sovereign state and its security, and that the vaccine as a civilizational achievement is one of the most vital mechanisms for safeguarding public health and, by extension, national security. On the other hand, the paper contends that vaccine hesitancy should also be considered a threat to national security. What vaccine hesitancy means and what factors contribute to it is something of a blind spot in Serbia’s public and academic discourse. The survey findings have shown that vaccine hesitancy is influenced by various factors and conclude that Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy in Serbia can be considered a threat to national security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the direction and intensity of the impact of economic trends on the profitability of banks in Serbia and Croatia in the period between the years 2006 and 2021. This paper aims to determine which indicators of economic trends have the most substantial impact on the profitability of banks in the selected countries. As key indicators of economic trends, GDP per capita, the GDP growth rate, inflation rate, real interest rate, broad money growth, general government final consumption expenditure, current account balance, gross savings, trade, and unemployment are selected as independent variables. At the same time, bank profitability was measured with bank return on equity, in percentages (ROE), and bank return on assets, in percentages (ROA) – two indicators which represent the dependent variables selected for this research. Descriptive analysis, mean difference, correlation, and univariate and multivariate regression were used in the research. Research results show that changes in real interest rates and unemployment have a significant impact on the profitability of banks in both of the selected countries, while changes in GDP per capita growth have a statistically significant effect only in Serbia, and general government final consumption expenditure has a statistically significant impact only in Croatia. The influence of other indicators of economic trends is not statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retail supply chains are key on any market. Their significance has long been recognized in the literature and in practice. Various factors such as pandemics, economic crises, wars, and natural disasters have further increased interest in this area. However, the most recent research has focused more on resilience, sustainability, energy consumption, and a circular economy, while the efficiency of logistics processes has been almost completely overlooked. Logistics process efficiency in retail supply chain is a fundamental principle without which all mentioned performances cannot have desired values. This gap is precisely the main motivation of this research. In this paper, research models in literature are presented which can be used, with some modifications, to measure the efficiency of the retail supply chain. The models were based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Four main groups were identified: standard DEA models, efficiency decomposition models, network models, and game-theory-based models. In the second part of the paper, various approaches were tested on a real example of a trading company operating in Serbia. Seven supply chains were observed, each consisting of a distribution center (DC) and retail store (RS). Variables used were the number of pallet places, logistics costs, number of deliveries, accuracy of deliveries, and turnover. The results showed the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches in real examples. The main contributions of this paper lie in unique approaches to measuring the efficiency of the retail supply chain. The paper creates an excellent foundation for future research and measurements on real systems, which is equally useful for researchers and industry experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Selection of analgesics should be based on the World Health Organization (WHO) analgesic ladder, beginning with non-opioid analgesics in combination with adjuvants for mild pain, weak opioids with adjuvants are indicated for moderate pain, while potent opioids, non-opioids and adjuvants are recommended for severe pain. Methods: The facts presented in this paper are expanded by searching for recent literature data in the following index-data-bases: SCI index, PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and by using adequate key words. The idea supporting this paper was to make practice easier for clinicians who are engaged in supportive oncology and to help in adequate and up-to-date malignant pain management in oncology patients in everyday practice. Topic: Initial opioid dose should be low, and long-acting opioid dose should be gradually increased and titrated considering daily requirements of short-acting opioid formulation due to pain breakthrough. It is mandatory for patients on long-acting opioid treatment to be provided with fast-acting medication for breakthrough pain treatment. The following long-acting strong opioids formulations are available in Serbia – oxycodone, oxycodone/ naloxone fixed combination, hydromorphone, tapentadol, fentanyl. A patient and his/her family should be warned about possible side effects of opioids, primarily morphine. There is great fear of prescribing opioid analgesics due to their possible side-effect of respiratory depression. Opiophobia is defined as exaggerated concern about the consequences of medical use of opioids. The risk of opioids is estimated to overweight the benefits of the treatment, resulting in the fact that they are not used where indicated. Avoiding opioid prescriptions is one of the biggest barriers for successful treatment of cancer pain. Conclusion: Oncology patients with moderate and severe pain have a constitutional right not to tolerate pain and they have a right to strong opioid treatment. Implementation of analgesic elevator is recommended. There should not be any fear of addiction or other side-effects that can be controlled, and the benefits greatly outweigh the risks of possible side-effects in these patients. Cancer pain management should be an equally important element of overall cancer treatment. Only by multimodal and multidisciplinary treatment approach satisfactory analgesic effects may be achieved while minimizing adverse sideeffects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a model for determining fuzzy evaluations of partial indicators of the availability of continuous systems at coal open pits using a neuro-fuzzy inference system. The system itself is a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. The system availability is divided into partial indicators. By combining the fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, a model is obtained that has the ability to learn and uses expert judgment for that learning. This paper deals with the ECC system (bucket wheel excavator-conveyor-crushing plant) of the open pit Drmno-Kostolac, which operates within the Electric Power Company of Serbia. The advantage of a model of this type is that it does not rely on the historical experiences of experts and usual predicted values for the fuzzy evaluation of partial indicators, which are based on the assumption that similar systems affect availability in a similar way. The fuzzy evaluation of partial indicators is based on historical data for the specific system for which the model was created. As such, it can more accurately predict continuous systems availability on the basis of expert evaluations in the appropriate time period. Another advantage of this model is that the availability is estimated on a quarterly basis, which gives a more accurate view because it uses a smaller time period with more similar characteristics and, thus, includes certain external influences which are related to the quarterly meteorological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hyperinsulinemia is a condition characterized by excessively high levels of insulin in the bloodstream. It can exist for many years without any symptomatology. The research presented in this paper was conducted from 2019 to 2022 in cooperation with a health center in Serbia as a large cross-sectional observational study of adolescents of both genders using datasets collected from the field. Previously used analytical approaches of integrated and relevant clinical, hematological, biochemical, and other variables could not identify potential risk factors for developing hyperinsulinemia. This paper aims to present several different models using machine learning (ML) algorithms such as naive Bayes, decision tree, and random forest and compare them with a new methodology constructed based on artificial neural networks using Taguchi's orthogonal vector plans (ANN-L), a special extraction of Latin squares. Furthermore, the experimental part of this study showed that ANN-L models achieved an accuracy of 99.5% with less than seven iterations performed. Furthermore, the study provides valuable insights into the share of each risk factor contributing to the occurrence of hyperinsulinemia in adolescents, which is crucial for more precise and straightforward medical diagnoses. Preventing the risk of hyperinsulinemia in this age group is crucial for the well-being of the adolescents and society as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Criminal offences against economic interests are prescribed in the separate chapter of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Serbia. It is about 29 incriminations. Except that these offences are prescribed in the Criminal Code, such incriminations are prescribed and by the other laws. Author of this paper refers to certain penal and criminological aspects of the mentioned offences. At the beginning of paper there is a word about punishable acts in the field of economic interests. A chapter of work is dedicated to data on the frequency of occurrence of such offences. Author emphasizes certain specifics in regard to the enforcement of criminal sanctions against persons convicted for offences against economic interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper the author considers the environmental characteristics of property tax. The aim of the paper is to present how this tax can be used in order to contribute to the protection of environment. Having in mind the fact that the ecological role of property tax in Serbia is quite modest, the author will try to answer whether there is room for further greening of the property tax by introducing new tax reliefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction/purpose: Decades of dealing with unexploded ordnance (UXO) in some areas of the Republic of Serbia have confirmed that it presents a substantial hazard to the security of people, property, and the environment. Even though the terrain has been cleaned, various threats from difficult-tofind UXO components remain serious. Inadequate systemic solutions for UXO management can have significant harmful consequences. Methods: Based on the spatial distribution analysis and different UXO types and quantities, this article studies the effects of dangerous components of unexploded ordnance on human lives and the environment. Two different geospatial analyses were performed including the guidelines for risk management through risk elimination based on multiple criteria, the GIS, and the Remote Sensing analysis. Results: Two different geospatial analyses resulted in the areas at high risk of remaining UXO. Conclusion: The article significantly contributes to creating an environmental risk management strategy for UXO-contaminated regions. It presents an effective technique for addressing risk assessment challenges in such sites. The analysis considers both risk analysis and environmental protection options. Using the multi-criteria analysis and the GIS, it estimates the exposure of built structures, people, soil types, and plant species to UXO dangers in key locations. This paper serves as a guideline for environmental risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural intelligence represents a set of competencies and skills that enable a person to adapt in situations that are multicultural in nature. It consists of four basic factors, namely the metacognitive, cognitive, motivational and behavioural factors. The main goal of this paper is to examine the influence of the motivational factor of cultural intelligence on the decision of consumers from the Republic of Serbia to accept foreign brands. Empirical research was carried out using the survey method, the total number of respondents in the sample is 122, their answers were analysed using statistical software SPSS, and the statistical analyses used were reliability analysis, correlation analysis, simple regression analysis, the ANOVA test, and the T-test for two independent samples. The results of the research show that the motivational factor of cultural intelligence achieves a positive influence on the decision of consumers to accept foreign brands, that the degree of cultural intelligence is equally pronounced among people belonging to Generations X, Y and Z, as well as that the degree of cultural intelligence is more pronounced among people with a university level education compared to people with a high school education. The existing research gap in scientific literature is filled by the results of this research, while the managerial implications of the study are reflected in the provision of information to marketers about the importance of the cultural intelligence of consumers. In other words, it is emphasised that this group of consumers has cosmopolitan views, that they are part of a global consumer culture, that they are innovative, and that they buy foreign brands, which should be taken into account when formulating a marketing strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the textile industry trade competitiveness of nine European transition economies (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia), in parts and in its entirety, by using the following indicators: Revealed comparative advantage (RCA), Competitiveness growth index (RCA1), Index of net business performance (RCA2), and Michaely index (MI). The analysis focuses on the period between 1995 and 2018. The results of the analysis show that the textile industry of Northern Macedonia is internationally competitive, and that most countries have revealed comparative advantages. The textile industry contributed to the surplus in trade balance in North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Romania, while North Macedonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia achieved some level of production specialization. It was also confirmed that these countries had statistically different levels of trade competitiveness. The top level of production finalization accounted for the greatest average value of competitiveness indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of the big five, individual entrepreneurial orientation, love of money, and theory of planned behaviour dimensions on the entrepreneurial attitude and intention among freelancers. The moderating effect of gender in freelancers was also examined. The research was conducted in Western Balkan countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, and Serbia. A total of 318 questionnaires were collected. The influences of the theory of planned behaviour and individual entrepreneurial orientation dimensions are significant and positive. The positive impact of dimension openness is emphasised. Motivation to make money has a strong and positive effect on entrepreneurial attitudes and intentions, especially among men. The desire to achieve freedom through money has a positive impact on entrepreneurial attitudes, but also a negative effect on entrepreneurial intentions. Analytical and graphical modelling of the detected impacts was performed. Based on the real values of the independent variables that apply to a certain freelancer, analytical models can be used to simulate the entrepreneurial attitudes and intentions of that individual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aim. There are a few research papers in Serbia that report on the clinical results of scarf osteotomy (SO) and its long-term effects. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the efficacy of SO in hallux valgus (HV) deformity correction, as well as the degree of recurrence and its possible causes. Methods. The study included 48 patients (52 feet) who underwent SO. The average follow-up time was 103.9 (63–156) months. In order to clinically evaluate the results, the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) scale and the Visual Analog Scale (VAS) of pain were used. In order to radiographically determine the degree of deformity, preoperative and postoperative radiographs of the feet were taken in the standing position, and the following parameters were determined: HV angle (HVA), intermetatarsal angle, distal metatarsal articular angle, and sesamoid position. Results. The AOFAS scores increased from 19 (5–45) points preoperatively to 92 (54–100) points at the time of the latest follow-up examination (p < 0.001). The VAS values significantly improved from 10 (8–10) preoperatively to 0 (0–6). The average HVA correction was 24.8°. The recurrence rate in patients in whom the HVA was greater than 20° was 26.9%. Conclusion. Although SO is a proven procedure for the correction of HV, long-term results still show a relatively high rate of recurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern human resource management involves a series of methods that ensure employee satisfaction, intending to achieve organizational goals. The perception of hotel staff as a factor of market success implies the creation of a working environment within which the performance of employees would be adequately used for these purposes. Consequently, the need for extensive research of leaders who will be able to respond to all business and social challenges arises as a basic prerequisite for achieving enviable business results. This paper aims to examine the impact of servant leadership on positive and negative outcomes in the field of hotel business. For the purposes of the survey, 412 hotel workers, employed in various hierarchical positions, were surveyed. The results of the research indicate a positive correlation between servant leadership and job satisfaction and work engagement, that is, a negative correlation between this leadership style and turnover intention and burnout. Furthermore, regression analysis confirmed the direct impact of servant leadership on job satisfaction and work engagement, as well as turnover intention. This study fills theoretical gaps in the aspect of choosing purposeful leadership styles in the sphere of hotel business in Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the frequency analysis of absolute maximum air temperatures, using annual maximum series (AMS) in the period 1961-2010 from 40 climatological stations in Serbia with maximum likelihood estimation of distribution parameters. For the goodness of fit testing of General Extreme Value (GEV), Normal, Log-Normal, Pearson 3 (three parameters), and Log-Pearson 3 distribution, three different tests were used (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, chi-square). Based on the results of these tests (best average rank of certain distribution), the appropriate distribution is selected. GEV distribution proved to be the most appropriate one in most cases. The probability of exceedance of absolute maximum air temperatures on 1%, 0.5%, 0.2%, and 0.1% levels are calculated. A spatial analysis of the observed and modeled values of absolute maximum air temperatures in Serbia is given. The absolute maximum air temperature of 44.9 °C was recorded at Smederevska Palanka station, and the lowest value of maximum air temperature 35.8 °C was recorded at Zlatibor station, one of the stations with the highest altitude. The modeled absolute maximum air temperatures are the highest at Zaječar station with 44.5 °C, 45.6 °C, 47.0 °C, and 48.0 °C and the lowest values are calculated for Sjenica station with 35.5 °C, 35.8 °C, 36.1 °C, and 36.2 °C for the return periods of 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years, respectively. Our findings indicate the possible occurrence of much higher absolute maximum air temperatures in the future than the ones recorded on almost all of the analyzed stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A generalized mathematical model has been proposed to analysis COVID-19. • Deterministic and stochastic SIQR models with vaccination and treatment are studied. • Conditions for the extinction of the epidemic are obtained. • The theoretical results of model are verified by the epidemic data of Russia and Serbia. • We make the short-term prediction of COVID-19 in Russia and Serbia. In this paper, we propose and investigate the SIQR epidemic model with a generalized incidence rate function, a general treatment function and vaccination term. We firstly consider the existence and uniqueness of the global nonnegative solution to the deterministic model. Further, we show the locally asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model, and obtain the basic reproduction number R 0. Then we study the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution to the stochastic model with any positive initial value. Meanwhile, we obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease in the stochastic epidemic model, and find that the large noise can make the disease die out exponentially. Finally, we make an empirical analysis by the COVID-19 data of Russia and Serbia. By the performance comparison of different models, it shows that the model with vaccination and treatment we proposed is better for the real situation, which is also verified by different estimation methods. Especially, that shows the recovery rate of the infected increases by 0.042 and the death rate of the recovered is 1.525 times that of normal human in Russia. Through statistical analysis, the short-term trend of epidemic transmission is predicted: under the condition of unchanged prevention and control policies, it may reach a stable endemic equilibrium state in Russia and the epidemic will eventually extinct in Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]