The California Recall Election: A Formal Model of Referendum Voting and Candidate Entry Allen Bronson Brierly University of Northern Iowa This study examines what lessons can be learned from two-dimensional voting in an electoral setting. The first dimension involves a binary referendum vote; the second represents a vote cast over a large and finite number of ordered alternatives. In the context of the California recall election, the former consists of a yes or no vote to recall a reelected, incumbent Governor. The latter dimension consists of a list of candidates, whom may be ordered by timing of entry into the campaign, support in public opinion polls, or by their partisanship and political views on a left to right political spectrum. The assumption of a well-ordered dimension can be generalized to describe situations with multiple candidates, more than two political parties, or some number of alternative referenda simultaneously under consideration. In this study, the model of two-dimensional votes generalizes to all contexts involving a two-stage voting process. Examples of this process include a nominating and general election, although the voting order is reversed in the case of the California recall election. Under the voting procedure in California, a recall election is held at the same time as a candidate preference ballot. If the recall is defeated, the incumbent retains the office and votersÂ’ preferences for the candidates are moot. However, if a majority oppose retention, the candidate with the most votes replaces the incumbent. Thus, voting is in two stages, with a pure majority rule outcome selected in the first stage and a plurality rule winning alternative selected in the second stage of voting. By specification of a model for the distribution of votes, it is possible for upwards of thirty-five alternatives to be proposed or to enter the campaign. Among these alternatives, the analysis demonstrates that we should generally only consider the rank order of a few of the alternatives, ranging from the status quo (at zero) to approximately four alternatives to the status quo. By examining plausible voting preferences, it is possible to show the effects of the California voting procedure, to distinguish between Davis supporters and recall voters, and to interpret the election outcome. By supplementing this analysis with the available polling data, the findings describe the campaign in two dimensions. A recall campaign that consisted of trends in support for the Governor, candidatesÂ’ entry and exit, the determination of a feasible set of candidates, and then the emergence of a leading candidate. This voting procedure resulted in the selection of a moderate Republican candidate as a replacement to the status quo administration (a DLC Democrat). Beyond the specific ramifications of this election, the voting procedure itself is significant because other states may adopt similar ballot procedures and because it represents a general form of voting that produces more complicated campaigns and elections. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]