Search

Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystems. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17-35 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season in multiple variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000Wm-2 of surface incoming shortwave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 °C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), the period with Ked490 over 0.4m-1 has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013, i.e. quadrupled. The period with satellite-detected CHL of at least 3mgm-3 has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now switched to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new mechanistic model, Stochastic Lagrangian Aggregate Model of Sinking particles (SLAMS) for the biological pump in the ocean, which tracks the evolution of individual particles as they aggregate, disaggregate, sink, and are altered by chemical and biological processes. SLAMS considers the impacts of ballasting by mineral phases, binding of aggregates by transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), zooplankton grazing, and the fractal geometry (porosity) of the aggregates. Parameterizations for age-dependent organic carbon (orgC) degradation kinetics, and disaggregation driven by zooplankton grazing and TEP degradation, are motivated by observed particle fluxes and size spectra throughout the water column. The model is able to explain observed variations in orgC export efficiency and rain ratio from the euphotic zone and to the sea floor as driven by sea surface temperature and the primary production rate and sea-sonality of primary production. The model provides a new mechanistic framework with which to predict future changes on the flux attenuation of orgC in response to climate change forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subpolar regions are key areas to study natural climate variability due to their high sensitivity to rapid environmental changes, particularly through sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Here, we have tested three independent organic temperature proxies (U37K', TEX86 and LDI) on their potential applicability for SST reconstruction in the subpolar region around Iceland. U37K', TEX86 and TEX86L temperature estimates from suspended particulate matter result in a substantial discrepancy with instrumental data, while long chain alkyl diols were below detection limit in most of the stations. In the northern Iceland basin sedimenting particles revealed a seasonality in lipid fluxes similar to that in the bulk flux and the net primary production, i.e. highest flux of alkenones and GDGTs were measured during late spring-summer, and late summer for long chain alkyl diols. The flux-weighted average temperature estimates had a significant negative (ca. 2.3 °C for U37K') and positive (up to 5 °C for TEX86) offset with satellite-derived SSTs and the temperature derived from the underlying surface sediment. In contrast, sedimentary U37K' estimates temperatures around Iceland correlate well with summer mean temperatures, while TEX86 derived temperatures correspond well with either annual or winter mean 0-200m temperatures, suggesting a subsurface temperature signal. Anomalous LDI-SST values in surface sediments, and low mass flux of 1,13- and 1,15-diols compared to 1,14-diols, suggest that Proboscia diatom is the major source of long chain alkyl diols in this area rather than eustigmatophyte algae, and therefore the LDI cannot be applied in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examination of climatic and oceanographic changes through the Holocene (11.75 ka–present) allows for an improved understanding and contextualization of modern climate change. Climate records of the Holocene can be utilized as a "baseline" from which to compare modern climate and can also provide insights into how environments experience and recover from change. However, individual studies on Holocene climate in the literature tend to focus on a distinct geographic location, a specific proxy record, or a certain aspect of climate (e.g., upwelling or precipitation), resulting in localized, record-specific trends rather than a comprehensive view of climate variability through the Holocene. Here we synthesize the major oceanographic and terrestrial changes that have occurred in the Western United States (bounded by 30 to 52 ∘ N and 115 to 130 ∘ W) through the most recent 11.75 kyr and explore the impacts of these changes on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. We present a novel spatiotemporal analysis of Holocene marine and terrestrial temperature, hydroclimate, and fire activity across the Early, Middle, and Late Holocene using a coded analysis of over 40 published studies. Following coded analysis of temperature, hydroclimate, and fire activity in the paper, we include a broader literature review of environmental change through the Holocene, including an examination of the impacts of multi-millennial climate trends on ecological communities. We find that the Early Holocene is characterized by warming relative to pre-Holocene conditions, including warm sea surface conditions, a warm and dry Pacific Northwest, a warm and wet Southwest, and overall spatial and temporal stability. In the Middle Holocene, these patterns reverse; this interval is characterized by cool sea surface temperatures, a cool and wet Pacific Northwest and warm and dry Southwest. The Late Holocene is the most variable interval, both spatially and temporally, and a novel spatial trend appears in terrestrial climate with warmer coastal areas and cooler inland areas. Human communities interacted with the environment throughout the entire Holocene, as evidenced in archeological and paleoenvironmental records, yet the recent Era of Colonization (1850–present) represents an unprecedented environmental interval in many records. Broadly, our analysis shows linkages between terrestrial and oceanographic conditions, distinct environmental phases through time, and emphasizes the importance of local factors in controlling climate through the dynamic Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, an ensemble of pacemaker simulations where the observed El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is prescribed, and a pre-industrial control simulation. We also utilize large ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. By conducting a causal analysis of the historical time series, a regime switch is identified in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability. Causal networks derived from pacemaker simulations support this finding and further demonstrate that the effect of external forcing could favor an Atlantic-driven regime between 1985 and 2014 where warming tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through a strengthening of the Pacific Walker Circulation. This negative sign effect was not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run further supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of external forcing. We show that causal discovery can quantify previously unknown connections and thus provides important potential to contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important geophysical parameter that is essential for studying global climate change. Although sea surface temperature can currently be obtained through a variety of sensors (MODIS, AVHRR, AMSR-E, AMSR2, WindSat, in situ sensors), the temperature values obtained by different sensors come from different ocean depths and different observation times, so different temperature products lack consistency. In addition, different thermal infrared temperature products have many invalid values due to the influence of clouds, and passive microwave temperature products have very low resolutions. These factors greatly limit the applications of ocean temperature products in practice. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper first took MODIS SST products as a reference benchmark and constructed a temperature depth and observation time correction model to correct the influences of the different sampling depths and observation times obtained by different sensors. Then, we built a reconstructed spatial model to overcome the effects of clouds, rainfall, and land interference that makes full use of the complementarities and advantages of SST data from different sensors. We applied these two models to generate a unique global 0.041 ∘ gridded monthly SST product covering the years 2002–2019. In this dataset, approximately 25 % of the invalid pixels in the original MODIS monthly images were effectively removed, and the accuracies of these reconstructed pixels were improved by more than 0.65 ∘ C compared to the accuracies of the original pixels. The accuracy assessments indicate that the reconstructed dataset exhibits significant improvements and can be used for mesoscale ocean phenomenon analyses. The product will be of great use in research related to global change, disaster prevention, and mitigation and is available at 10.5281/zenodo.4419804 (Cao et al., 2021a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT, ca. 40–33 Ma) marks a transformation from a largely ice-free to an icehouse climate mode that is well recorded by oxygen-stable isotopes and sea surface temperature proxies. Opening of the Southern Ocean gateways and decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been considered as factors in this global environmental transformation and the growth of ice sheets in Antarctica during the Cenozoic. A more comprehensive understanding is still needed of the interplay between forcing versus response, the correlation among environmental changes, and the involved feedback mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal variation in export productivity using biogenic Ba (bio- Ba) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites in the Southern Ocean, focusing on possible mechanisms that controlled them as well as the correlation of export productivity changes to changes in the global carbon cycle. We document two high export productivity events in the Southern Ocean during the late Eocene (ca. 37 and 33.5 Ma) that correlate to proposed gateway-driven changes in regional circulation and to changes in global atmospheric pCO2 levels. Our findings suggest that paleoceanographic changes following Southern Ocean gateway openings, along with more variable increases in circulation driven by episodic Antarctic ice sheet expansion, enhanced export production in the Southern Ocean from the late Eocene through early Oligocene. These factors may have played a role in episodic atmospheric carbon dioxide reduction, contributing to Antarctic glaciation during the Eocene–Oligocene transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration from coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models such as those from the CMIP5 experiment are often used as boundary forcings for the downscaling of future climate experiments. Yet, these models show some considerable biases when compared to the observations over present climate. In this paper, existing methods such as an absolute anomaly method and a quantile–quantile method for sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a look-up table and a relative anomaly method for sea-ice concentration (SIC) are presented. For SIC, we also propose a new analogue method. Each method is objectively evaluated with a perfect model test using CMIP5 model experiments and some real-case applications using observations. We find that with respect to other previously existing methods, the analogue method is a substantial improvement for the bias correction of future SIC. Consistency between the constructed SST and SIC fields is an important constraint to consider, as is consistency between the prescribed sea-ice concentration and thickness; we show that the latter can be ensured by using a simple parameterisation of sea-ice thickness as a function of instantaneous and annual minimum SIC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As ice sheets grow or decay, the net flux of freshwater into the ocean changes and the bedrock adjusts due to isostatic adjustments, leading to variations in the bottom topography and the oceanic boundaries. This process was particularly intense during the last deglaciation due to the high rates of ice-sheet melting. It is, therefore, necessary to consider transient ocean bathymetry and coastlines when attempting to simulate the last deglaciation with Earth system models (ESMs). However, in most standard ESMs the land-sea mask is fixed throughout simulations because the generation of a new ocean model bathymetry implies several levels of manual corrections, a procedure that is hardly doable very often for long runs. This is one of the main technical problems towards simulating a complete glacial cycle with general circulation models. For the first time, we present a tool allowing for an automatic computation of bathymetry and land-sea mask changes in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The algorithms developed in this paper can easily be adapted to any free-surface ocean model that uses the Arakawa-C grid in the horizontal and z -grid in the vertical including partial bottom cells. The strategy applied is described in detail and the algorithms are tested in a long-term simulation demonstrating the reliable behaviour. Our approach guarantees the conservation of mass and tracers at global and regional scales; that is, changes in a single grid point are only propagated regionally. The procedures presented here are an important contribution to the development of a fully coupled ice sheet–solid Earth–climate model system with time-varying topography and will allow for transient simulations of the last deglaciation considering interactive bathymetry and land-sea mask. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data assimilation (DA) methods have been used recently to constrain the climate model forecasts by paleoproxy records. Both DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Moreover, in paleo-DA, the time step of consequence for observations is usually too long for a dynamical model to follow the previous analysis state and the chaotic behavior of the model becomes dominant. The majority of recent paleoclimate studies using DA have performed low- or intermediate-resolution global simulations along with an "off-line" DA approach. In an off-line DA, the re-initialization cycle is completely removed after the assimilation step. In this paper, we design a computationally affordable DA to assimilate yearly pseudo-observations and real observations into an ensemble of COSMO-CLM highresolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations over Europe, for which the ensemble members slightly differ in boundary and initial conditions. Within a perfect model experiment, the performance of the applied DA scheme is evaluated with respect to its sensitivity to the noise levels of pseudo-observations. It was observed that the injected bias in the pseudo-observations linearly impacts the DA skill. Suchexperiments can serve as a tool for the selection of proxy records, which can potentially reduce the state estimation error when they are assimilated. Additionally, the sensitivity of COSMO-CLM to the boundary conditions is addressed. The geographical regions where the model exhibits high internal variability are identified. Two sets of experiments are conducted by averaging the observations over summer and winter. Furthermore, the effect of the spurious correlations within the observation space is studied and a optimal correlation radius, within which the observations are assumed to be correlated, is detected. Finally, the pollen-based reconstructed quantities at the mid-Holocene are assimilated into the RCM and the performance is evaluated against a test dataset. We conclude that the DA approach is a promising tool for creating high-resolution yearly analysis quantities. The affordable DA method can be applied to efficiently improve climate field reconstruction efforts by combining highresolution paleoclimate simulations and the available proxy records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Barents Sea is experiencing large trends in sea ice decline and increasing surface temperatures while at the same time, it is a key region of weather variability in the Arctic and therefore predestined for the occurrence of surface weather extremes. In this study, we identify extreme winter seasons in the Barents Sea, based on a multivariate method, as winters with large seasonal-mean anomalies in one or several surface parameters encompassing surface temperature, precipitation, surface heat fluxes and surface net radiation. Using large-ensemble climate model data for historical (S2000) and end-of-century (S2100) projections following a RCP8.5 emission scenario, we find distinct clusters of extreme winters that are characterized by similar combinations of anomalies in these key surface weather parameters. In particular, we find that, during extreme winters, seasonal-mean anomalies in surface temperature are usually spatially extended with a maximum over sea ice in S2000 simulations, which shifts towards the continental land masses in a warmer climate, as the formation of a warm or cold air reservoir is being hampered by the increasing area of open ocean. Several extreme winters are selected for a detailed investigation of their substructure focusing on the relative importance of anomalies in the occurrence of synoptic-scale weather systems and anomalous surface boundary conditions for the formation of such seasons. Large combined anomalies in the key surface parameters result mainly from the accumulation of recurrent short-term events that are linked to distinct patterns of anomalous frequencies in cyclones, anticyclones and cold air outbreaks. While large seasonal-mean anomalies in surface air temperature can be linked to large-scale patterns facilitating the horizontal advection of relatively warmer (colder) air, which coincides with a lack (surplus) of cold air outbreaks, precipitation anomalies are characterized by local anomalies in cyclone and anticyclone frequency. Additionally, anomalous surface boundary conditions – that is sea ice concentration and sea surface temperatures – facilitate the formation of persistent anomalous surface conditions or further enhance atmospherically driven anomalies due to anomalous surface heat fluxes. In a warmer climate, we find extreme winters with similar substructures as in S2000. However, the increasing distance of the Barents Sea to the sea ice edge causes a decreasing magnitude in seasonal-mean anomalies of surface air temperatures and the atmospheric components of the surface energy balance. A decrease in the variability of both sea ice and sea surface temperatures indicates a decreasing importance in anomalous surface boundary conditions for the formation of future extreme winters in the Barents Sea, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strongly varying benthic δ18 O levels of the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago) are primarily caused by a combination of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) volume and deep-ocean temperatures. These factors are coupled since AIS changes affect deep-ocean temperatures. It has recently been argued that this is due to changes in ice sheet area rather than volume because area changes affect the surface albedo. This finding would be important when the transient AIS grows relatively faster in extent than in thickness, which we test here. We analyse simulations of Miocene AIS variability carried out using the three-dimensional ice sheet model IMAU-ICE forced by warm (high CO 2 , no ice) and cold (low CO 2 , large East AIS) climate snapshots. These simulations comprise equilibrium and idealized quasi-orbital transient runs with strongly varying CO 2 levels (280 to 840 ppm). Our simulations show a limited direct effect of East AIS changes on Miocene orbital-timescale benthic δ18 O variability because of the slow build-up of volume. However, we find that relative to the equilibrium ice sheet size, the AIS area adapts significantly faster and more strongly than volume to the applied forcing variability. Consequently, during certain intervals the ice sheet is receding at the margins, while ice is still building up in the interior. That means the AIS does not adapt to a changing equilibrium size at the same rate or with the same sign everywhere. Our results indicate that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support further understanding of circulation changes in a warming climate, an idealised aquaplanet model setup containing summer and winter hemispheres is presented, and the results of circulation changes under warming are discussed. First, a setup is introduced that enables aquaplanet simulations with a warmer and a colder hemisphere, including realistic-looking summer and winter jet streams, storm tracks, and precipitation patterns that are fairly similar to observations, as well as a more intense and equatorward storm track in the winter compared to the summer hemisphere. The sea surface temperature (SST) distribution used here is inspired by the June–July–August zonal mean SST found in reanalysis data and is flexible to allow control of the occurrence of a single or double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The setup is then used to investigate circulation changes under uniform warming, as motivated by recent research. For example, the stronger poleward shift of the storm tracks during summer compared to winter is reproduced. Furthermore, the jet waviness decreases under warming when compared on isentropes with maximum wind speed or isentropes at similar heights in pressure space. Jet stream waviness increases under warming when compared at similar-valued isentropes but primarily because the corresponding isentrope is closer to the surface in the warmer climate and waviness climatologically increases downwards in the atmosphere. A detailed analysis of the changes in wave amplitude for different wavenumbers confirms that the amplitude of large waves increases with warming, while that of short waves decreases with warming. The reduction in wave amplitude of short synoptic waves is found to dominate in the jet core region, where jet waviness also decreases and is more pronounced on the equatorward side of the jet. Long waves increase in amplitude on the poleward side of the jet and at upper stratospheric levels, which is consistent with increased jet waviness at these levels. The projected increased amplitude of planetary waves and the reduced amplitude of synoptic waves are thus clear in our aquaplanet simulations and do not require zonal asymmetries or regional warming patterns. During so-called high-amplitude wave events, there is no evidence for a preferential phase of Rossby waves of wavenumbers 5 or 7, indicating the crucial role of stationary waves forced by orography or land–sea contrast in establishing previously reported preferential phases. We confirm that feature-based block detection requires significant tuning to the warmer climate to avoid the occurrence of spurious trends. After adjustment for changes in tropopause height, the block detection used here shows no trend in the summer hemisphere and an increase in blocking in the colder hemisphere. We also confirm previous findings that the number of surface cyclones tends to decrease globally under warming and that the cyclone lifetimes become shorter, except for very long-lived cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE 2) (∼ 93.5 Ma) is characterized by widespread marine anoxia and elevated burial rates of organic matter. However, the factors that led to this widespread marine deoxygenation and the possible link with climatic change remain debated. Here, we report long-term biomarker records of water-column anoxia, water-column and photic zone euxinia (PZE), and sea surface temperature (SST) from Demerara Rise in the equatorial Atlantic that span 3.8 Myr of the late Cenomanian to Turonian, including OAE 2. We find that total organic carbon (TOC) content is high but variable (0.41 wt %–17 wt %) across the Cenomanian and increases with time. This long-term TOC increase coincides with a TEX 86 -derived SST increase from ∼ 35 to 40 ∘ C as well as the episodic occurrence of 28,30-dinorhopane (DNH) and lycopane, indicating warming and expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) predating OAE 2. Water-column euxinia persisted through much of the late Cenomanian, as indicated by the presence of C 35 hopanoid thiophene but only reached the photic zone during OAE 2, as indicated by the presence of isorenieratane. Using these biomarker records, we suggest that water-column anoxia and euxinia in the equatorial Atlantic preceded OAE 2 and this deoxygenation was driven by global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important geophysical parameter that is essential for studying global climate change. Although sea surface temperature can currently be obtained through a variety of sensors (MODIS, AVHRR, AMSR-E, AMSR2, Windsat, in situ sensors), the temperature values obtained by different sensors come from different ocean depths and different observation times, so different temperature products lack consistency. In addition, different thermal infrared temperature products have many invalid values due to the influence of clouds, and passive microwave temperature products have very low resolutions. These factors greatly limit the applications of ocean temperature products in practice. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper first took MODIS SST products as a reference benchmark and constructed a temperature depth and observation time correction model to correct the influences of the different sampling depths and observation times obtained by different sensors. Then, we built a reconstructed spatial model to overcome the effects of clouds, rainfall and land interference that makes full use of the complementarities and advantages of SST data from different sensors. We applied these two models to generate a unique global 0.041° gridded monthly SST product covering the years 2002–2019. In this dataset, approximately 25% of the invalid pixels in the original MODIS monthly images were effectively removed, and the accuracies of these reconstructed pixels were improved by more than 0.65°C compared to the accuracies of the original pixels. The accuracy assessments indicate that the reconstructed dataset exhibits significant improvements and can be used for mesoscale ocean phenomenon analyses. The product will be of great use in research related to global change, disaster prevention and mitigation and is available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4419804 (Cao et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore a speleothem δ18O record from Palestina cave, northwestern Peru, at a site on the eastern side of the Andes cordillera, in the upper Amazon Basin. The δ18O record is interpreted as a proxy for South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) intensity and allows the reconstruction of its variability during the last 1600 years. Two periods of anomalous changes in the climate mean state corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) periods identified in the Northern Hemisphere are recognized in the record, in which decreased and increased SASM activity, respectively, have been documented. Variations in SASM activity between the MCA and the LIA seem to be larger over the northern part of the continent, suggesting a latitudinal dependence of the MCA footprint. Our results, based on time series, composite and wavelet analyses, suggest that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays an relevant role for SASM modulation on multidecadal scales (~ 65 years), especially during dry periods such as the MCA. Composite analyses, applied to evaluate the influence of the AMO on the Palestina cave δ18O and other δ18O-derived SASM reconstructions, allow insight into the spatial footprints of the AMO over tropical South America and highlight differences between records during key studied periods. This work also reveals that replicating regional climate signals from different sites, and using different proxies is absolutely essential for a comprehensive understanding of past changes in SASM activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change could be expressed as a climate system transiting from the initial state to a new state in a short time. By considering the short period as a continued process, which is called transition process, more details of climate change would be described according to analysis the time sequence self. We had proposed a method to quantify the transition process of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) time sequence and global sea surface temperature system. And the quantitative relationships among the parameters characterizing the abrupt changes is revealed during the transition process. In this paper, we develop this method to predict the end moment (state) if the transition process has not been completed. Application of prediction method to the PDO sequences indicates that the PDO index increased from a stable stage before 2011 and gradually evolved to a transition process, and it was likely to end in 2015, which is consistent with observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report describes an increase in the number and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and a decrease in marine cold spells (MCSs) in the global ocean. However, these reported changes are not uniform on a regional to local basis, and it remains unknown if coastal areas follow the open-ocean trends. Surface ocean temperature measurements collected by satellites (from 1982–2022) and 13 coastal buoys (from 1990–2022) are analyzed in the northeastern Atlantic and three subregions: the English Channel, Bay of Brest and Bay of Biscay. The activity metric, combining the number of events, intensity, duration and spatial extent, is used to evaluate the magnitude of these extreme events. The results from in situ and satellite datasets for each of the studied regions are quite in agreement, although the satellite dataset underestimates the amplitude of activity for both MHWs and MCSs. This supports the applicability of the method to both in situ and satellite data, albeit with caution on the amplitude of these events. Also, this localized study in European coastal northeastern Atlantic water highlights that similar changes are being seen in coastal and open oceans regarding extreme events of temperature, with MHWs being more frequent and longer and extending over larger areas, while the opposite is seen for MCSs. These trends can be explained by changes in both the mean of and variance in sea-surface temperature. In addition, the pace of evolution and dynamics of marine extreme events differ among the subregions. Among the three studied subregions, the English Channel is the region experiencing the strongest increase in summer MHW activity over the last 4 decades. Summer MHWs were very active in the English Channel in 2022 due to long events, in the Bay of Biscay in 2018 due to intense events and in the Bay of Brest in 2017 due to a high occurrence of events. Winter MCSs were the largest in 1987 and 1986 due to long and intense events in the English Channel. Finally, our findings suggest that at an interannual timescale, the positive North Atlantic Oscillation favors the generation of strong summer MHWs in the northeastern Atlantic, while low-pressure conditions over northern Europe and a high off the Iberian Peninsula in winter dominate for MCSs. A preliminary analysis of air–sea heat fluxes suggests that, in this region, reduced cloud coverage is a key parameter for the generation of summer MHWs, while strong winds and increased cloud coverage are important for the generation of winter MCSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an overview of the fundamental statistics and features of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the historical simulations of the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1 (TaiESM1). Compared with observations, TaiESM1 can reproduce the fundamental features of observed ENSO signals, including seasonal phasing, thermocline coupling with winds, and atmospheric teleconnection during El Niño events. However, its ENSO response is approximately 2 times stronger than observed in the spectrum, resulting in powerful teleconnection signals. The composite of El Niño events shows a strong westerly anomaly extending fast to the eastern Pacific in the initial stage in March, April, and May, initiating a warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) there. This warm SSTA is maintained through September, October, and November (SON) and gradually diminishes after peaking in December. Analysis of wind stress–SST and heat flux–SST coupling indicates that biased positive SST–shortwave feedback significantly contributes to the strong warm anomaly over the eastern Pacific, especially in SON. Our analysis demonstrates TaiESM1's capability to simulate ENSO – a significant tropical climate variation on interannual scales with strong global impacts – and provides insights into mechanisms in TaiESM1 related to ENSO biases, laying the foundation for future model development to reduce uncertainties in TaiESM1 and climate models in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat waves can be one of the most dangerous climatic hazards affecting the planet, having dramatic impacts on the health of humans and natural ecosystems as well as on anthropogenic activities, infrastructures and economy. Based on climatic conditions in West Africa, the urban centres of the region appear to be vulnerable to heat waves. The goals of this work are firstly to assess the potential uncertainties encountered in heat wave detection and secondly to analyse their recent trend in West Africa cities during the period 1993–2020. This is done using two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, namely the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), as well as two local station datasets, namely Dakar–Yoff in Senegal and Aéroport Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, in Côte d'Ivoire. An estimate of station data from reanalyses is processed using an interpolation technique: the nearest neighbour to the station with a land sea mask ≥0.5. The interpolated temperatures from local stations in Dakar and Abidjan show slightly better correlation with ERA5 than with MERRA. Three types of uncertainty are discussed: the first type of uncertainty is related to the reanalyses themselves, the second is related to the sensitivity of heat wave frequency and duration to the threshold values used to monitor them, and the last one is linked to the choice of indicators and the methodology used to define heat waves. Three sorts of heat wave have been analysed, namely those occurring during daytime, nighttime, and both daytime and nighttime concomitantly. Four indicators have been used to analyse heat waves based on 2 m temperature, humidity, 10 m wind or a combination of these. We found that humidity plays an important role in nighttime events; concomitant events detected with wet-bulb temperature are more frequent and located over the northern Sahel. Strong and more persistent heat waves are found in the continental (CONT) region. For all indicators, we identified 6 years with a significantly higher frequency of events (1998, 2005, 2010, 2016, 2019 and 2020), possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean corresponding to El Niño events for some years. A significant increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in the cities has been observed during the last decade (2012–2020); this is thought to be a consequence of climate change acting on extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source for teleconnections, including towards the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) region, whereby TNA sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively correlated with ENSO in boreal spring following an ENSO event. However, the Pacific–Atlantic connection can be impacted by different ENSO characteristics, such as the amplitude, location, and timing of Pacific SST anomalies (SSTAs). Indeed, the TNA SSTAs may respond nonlinearly to strong and extreme El Niño events. However, observational data for the number of extreme ENSO events remain limited, restricting our ability to investigate the influence of observed extreme ENSO events. To overcome this issue and to further evaluate the nonlinearity of the TNA SSTA response, two coupled climate models are used, namely the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1 (FOCI). In both models the TNA SSTAs respond linearly to ENSO during extreme El Niño events but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña events for CESM-WACCM. We investigate differences by using indices for all major mechanisms that connect ENSO to the TNA and compare them with reanalysis. CESM-WACCM and FOCI overall represent the teleconnection well, including that the tropical and extratropical pathways are similar to observations. Our results also show that a large portion of the nonlinearity during La Niña is explained by the interaction between Pacific SSTAs and the overlying upper-level divergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now well established that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by a dramatic decline in sea ice, has been linked to cooling over the Eurasian subcontinent over recent decades, most dramatically during the period 1998–2012. This is a counter-intuitive impact under global warming given that land regions should warm more than ocean (and the global average). Some studies have proposed a causal teleconnection from Arctic sea-ice retreat to Eurasian wintertime cooling; other studies argue that Eurasian cooling is mainly driven by internal variability. Overall, there is an impression of strong disagreement between those holding the "ice-driven" versus "internal variability" viewpoints. Here, we offer an alternative framing showing that the sea ice and internal variability views can be compatible. Key to this is viewing Eurasian cooling through the lens of dynamics (linked primarily to internal variability with some potential contribution from sea ice; cools Eurasia) and thermodynamics (linked to sea-ice retreat; warms Eurasia). This approach, combined with recognition that there is uncertainty in the hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints (and others) to co-exist and contribute to our understanding of Eurasian cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows that Eurasian cooling of this magnitude is consistent with internal variability, with some periods exhibiting stronger cooling than others, either by chance or by forced changes. Rather than posit a "yes-or-no" causal relationship between sea ice and Eurasian cooling, a more constructive way forward is to consider whether the cooling trend was more likely given the observed sea-ice loss, as well as other sources of low-frequency variability. Taken in this way both sea ice and internal variability are factors that affect the likelihood of strong regional cooling in the presence of ongoing global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of observational data (from year 1870 AD) show that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies along the pathway of Atlantic Water transport in the North Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the Iceland Sea are in-phase at multidecadal time scales. In-phase SST anomaly relationships are also observed over hundreds of thousands of years during parts of the Pliocene (5.23–5.03, 4.63–4.43 and 4.33–4.03 Ma). However, when investigating CMIP6 SSP126 future scenario runs (next century) and Pliocene reconstructions (5.23–3.13 Ma), three additional phase relations emerge: 1) The Norwegian Sea is out of phase with the North Atlantic and the Iceland Sea (Pliocene; 4.93-4.73 and 3.93–3.63 Ma); 2) The Iceland Sea is out of phase with the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea (Pliocene; 3.43–3.23 Ma); 3) The North Atlantic is out of phase with the Norwegian and Iceland Seas (future trend). Hence, out of phase relationships seem to be possible in equilibrium climates (Pliocene) as well as in response to transient forcing (CMIP6 SSP 126 low-emission future scenario). Since buoyancy is a key forcing for inflow of Atlantic Water to the Norwegian Sea, we investigate the impacts of buoyancy forcing on the phase relation between SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, Norwegian and Iceland Seas. This is done by performing a range of idealized experiments using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Through these idealized experiments we can reproduce three out of four of the documented phase relations: in-phase relationships under weak to intermediate fresh water forcing over the Nordic Seas; the Iceland Sea out of phase with the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea under weak atmospheric warming over the Nordic Seas; and the North Atlantic out of phase with the Norwegian and Iceland Seas under strong atmospheric warming over the Nordic Seas. We suggest that the unexplained phase relation, when the Norwegian Sea SSTs are out of phase with the North Atlantic and the Iceland Sea, may reflect a response to a weakened Norwegian Atlantic Current compensated by a strong Irminger current, or an expanded East Greenland Current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-term projections of climate change are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present an approach to reduce this uncertainty by sub-selecting those ensemble members that more closely resemble observed patterns of ocean temperature variability immediately prior to a certain start date. This constraint aligns the observed and simulated variability phases and is conceptually similar to initialization in seasonal to decadal climate predictions. We apply this variability constraint to large multi-model projection ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), consisting of more than 200 ensemble members, and evaluate the skill of the constrained ensemble in predicting the observed near-surface temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We find that the constrained projections show significant skill in predicting the climate of the following 10 to 20 years, and added value over the ensemble of unconstrained projections. For the first decade after applying the constraint, the global patterns of skill are very similar and can even outperform those of the multi-model ensemble mean of initialized decadal hindcasts from the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP). In particular for temperature, larger areas show added skill in the constrained projections compared to DCPP, mainly in the Pacific and some neighboring land regions. Temperature and sea-level pressure in several regions are predictable multiple decades ahead, and show significant added value over the unconstrained projections for forecasting the first 2 decades and the 20-year averages. We further demonstrate the suitability of regional constraints to attribute predictability to certain ocean regions. On the example of global average temperature changes, we confirm the role of Pacific variability in modulating the reduced rate of global warming in the early 2000s, and demonstrate the predictability of reduced global warming rates over the following 15 years based on the climate conditions leading up to 1998. Our results illustrate that constraining internal variability can significantly improve the accuracy of near-term climate change estimates for the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool d-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height in 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. In the first place, d-MAPS assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct two unipartite and a bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and two century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses using a similarity criterion borrowed from image processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice shelves play a key role in the dynamics of marine ice sheets by buttressing grounded ice and limiting rates of ice flux to the oceans. In response to recent climatic and oceanic change, ice shelves fringing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have begun to fragment and retreat, with major implications for ice-sheet stability. Here, we focus on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the remaining pinned floating extension of Thwaites Glacier. We show that TEIS has undergone a process of fragmentation in the last 5 years, including brittle failure along a major shear zone, formation of tensile cracks on the main body of the shelf, and a release of tabular bergs on both the eastern and western flanks. Simulations with the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM) show that this pattern of failure is associated with high backstress from a submarine pinning point at the distal edge of the shelf. We show that a significant zone of shear, upstream of the main pinning point, developed in response to the rapid acceleration of the shelf between 2002 and 2006, seeding damage on the shelf. Subsequently, basal melting and positive feedback between damage and strain rates weakened TEIS, allowing damage to accumulate. Thus, although backstress on TEIS has likely diminished over time as the pinning point shrunk, accumulation of damage has ensured that the ice in the shear zone remained the weakest link in the system. Experiments with the BISICLES ice-sheet model indicate that additional damage to or unpinning of TEIS is unlikely to trigger significantly increased ice loss from WAIS, but the calving response to the loss of TEIS remains highly uncertain. It is widely recognised that ice-shelf fragmentation and collapse can be triggered by hydrofracturing and/or unpinning from ice-shelf margins or grounding points. Our results indicate a third mechanism, backstress triggered failure, that can occur if and when an ice shelf is no longer able to withstand stress imposed by pinning points. In most circumstances, pinning points are essential for ice-shelf stability, but as ice shelves thin and weaken, the concentration of backstress in damaged ice upstream of a pinning point may provide the seeds of their demise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-term projections of climate change are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present an approach to reduce this uncertainty by sub-selecting those ensemble members that more closely resemble observed patterns of ocean temperature variability immediately prior to a certain start date. This constraint aligns the observed and simulated variability phases and is conceptually similar to initialization in seasonal to decadal climate predictions. We apply this variability constraint to large multi-model projection ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), consisting of more than 200 ensemble members, and evaluate the skill of the constrained ensemble in predicting the observed near-surface temperature, sea-level pressure and precipitation on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. We find that the constrained projections show significant skill in predicting the climate of the following ten to twenty years, and added value over the ensemble of unconstrained projections. For the first decade after applying the constraint, the global patterns of skill are very similar and can even outperform those of the multi-model ensemble mean of initialized decadal hindcasts from the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP). In particular for temperature, larger areas show added skill in the constrained projections compared to DCPP, mainly in the Pacific and some neighboring land regions. Temperature and sea-level pressure in several regions are predictable multiple decades ahead, and show significant added value over the unconstrained projections for forecasting the first two decades and the 20-year averages. We further demonstrate the suitability of regional constraints to attribute predictability to certain ocean regions. On the example of global average temperature changes, we confirm the role of Pacific variability in modulating the reduced rate of global warming in the early 2000s, and demonstrate the predictability of reduced global warming rates over the following 15 years based on the climate conditions leading up to 1998. Our results illustrate that constraining internal variability can significantly improve the accuracy of near-term climate change estimates for the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arabian Sea (AS) hosts one of the most intense oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the world. Observations suggest a decline in O 2 in the northern AS over the recent decades accompanied by an intensification of the suboxic conditions there. Over the same period, the local sea surface temperature has risen significantly, particularly over the Arabian Gulf (also known as Persian Gulf, hereafter the Gulf), while summer monsoon winds may have intensified. Here, we simulate the evolution of dissolved oxygen in the AS from 1982 through 2010 and explore its controlling factors, with a focus on changing atmospheric conditions. To this end, we use a set of eddy-resolving hindcast simulations forced with winds and heat and freshwater fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis. We find a significant deoxygenation in the northern AS, with O 2 inventories north of 20 ∘ N dropping by over 6 % per decade between 100 and 1000 m. These changes cause an expansion of the OMZ volume north of 20 ∘ N at a rate of 0.6 % per decade as well as an increase in the volume of suboxia and the rate of denitrification by 14 and 15 % per decade, respectively. We also show that strong interannual and decadal variability modulate dissolved oxygen in the northern AS, with most of the O 2 decline taking place in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a set of sensitivity simulations we demonstrate that deoxygenation in the northern AS is essentially caused by reduced ventilation induced by the recent fast warming of the sea surface, including in the Gulf, with a contribution from concomitant summer monsoon wind intensification. This is because, on the one hand, surface warming enhances vertical stratification and increases Gulf water buoyancy, thus inhibiting vertical mixing and ventilation of the thermocline. On the other hand, summer monsoon wind intensification causes a rise in the thermocline depth in the northern AS that lowers O 2 levels in the upper ocean. Our findings confirm that the AS OMZ is strongly sensitive to upper-ocean warming and concurrent changes in the Indian monsoon winds. Finally, our results also demonstrate that changes in the local climatic forcing play a key role in regional dissolved oxygen changes and hence need to be properly represented in global models to reduce uncertainties in future projections of deoxygenation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a continuous and well-resolved record of climatic variability for the past 100 000 years from a marine sediment core taken in Delagoa Bight, off southeastern Africa. In addition to providing a sea surface temperature reconstruction for the past ca. 100 000 years, this record also allows a high-resolution continental climatic reconstruction. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as elemental indicators of fluvial input and weathering type provide information on climatic changes in the adjacent catchment areas (Incomati, Matola and Lusutfu rivers). At the transition between glacials and interglacials, shifts in vegetation correlate with changes in sea surface temperature in the Agulhas Current. The local hydrology, however, does not follow these orbitally paced shifts. Instead, precipitation patterns follow millennial-scale variations with different forcing mechanisms in glacial vs. interglacial climatic states. During glacials, southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone facilitates a transmission of northern hemispheric signals (e.g., Heinrich events) to the southern hemispheric subtropics. Furthermore, the southern hemispheric westerlies become a more direct source of precipitation as they shift northward over the study site, especially during Antarctic cold phases. During interglacials, the observed short-term hydrological variability is also a function of Antarctic climate variability; however, it is driven by the indirect influence of the southern hemispheric westerlies and the associated South African high-pressure cell blocking the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone related precipitation. As a consequence of the interplay of these effects, small-scale climatic zones exist. We propose a conceptual model describing latitudinal shifts of these zones along the southeastern African coast as tropical and temperate climate systems shift over glacial and interglacial cycles. The proposed model explains some of the apparent contradictions between several paleoclimate records in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the response of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) to different forcing agents within the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) framework. For each model and forcing agent, we break down the SWV response into a slow response, which is coupled to surface temperature changes, and a fast response, which is the response to external forcing but before the sea surface temperatures have responded. Our results show that, for most climate perturbations, the slow SWV response dominates the fast response. The slow SWV response exhibits a similar sensitivity to surface temperature across all climate perturbations. Specifically, the sensitivity is 0.35 ppmv K -1 in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), 2.1 ppmv K -1 in the northern hemispheric lowermost stratosphere (LMS), and 0.97 ppmv K -1 in the southern hemispheric LMS. In the TLS, the fast SWV response only dominates the slow SWV response when the forcing agent radiatively heats the cold-point region – for example, black carbon, which directly heats the atmosphere by absorbing solar radiation. The fast SWV response in the TLS is primarily controlled by the fast adjustment of cold-point temperature across all climate perturbations. This control becomes weaker at higher altitudes in the tropics and altitudes below 150 hPa in the LMS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of change in the marine environment over the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa (32–37 ∘ S, 20–30 ∘ E) is studied using reanalysis observations for 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections for 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time span: ∼ 1 ∘ datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while ∼ 0.5 ∘ datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures offshore are warming rapidly (0.05 ∘ C yr -1 since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a locally stronger Agulhas Current have intensified nearshore upwelling (-0.03 ∘ C yr -1). The subtropical ridge is gradually moving poleward, leading to a drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a set of climate simulations utilizing two kinds of Earth system models (ESMs) in which observed ocean hydrographic data are assimilated using exactly the same data assimilation procedure, we have clarified that the successful simulation of the observed air–sea CO 2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific is tightly linked to the reproducibility of coupled physical air–sea processes. When an ESM with a weaker ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillations) amplitude than that of the observations was used for historical simulations with ocean data assimilation, the observed equatorial anticorrelated relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) and the air–sea CO 2 flux on interannual to decadal timescales could not be represented. The simulated CO 2 flux anomalies were upward (downward) during El Niño (La Niña) periods in the equatorial Pacific. The reason for this was that the non-negligible correction term in the governing equation of ocean temperature, which was added via the ocean data assimilation procedure, caused an anomalous, spurious equatorial upwelling (downwelling) during El Niño (La Niña) periods, which brought more (less) subsurface layer water rich in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the surface layer. On the other hand, in the historical simulations where the observational data were assimilated into the other ESM with a more realistic ENSO representation, the correction term associated with the assimilation procedure remained small enough so as not to disturb an anomalous advection–diffusion balance for the equatorial ocean temperature. Consequently, spurious vertical transport of DIC and the resultant positively correlated SST and air–sea CO 2 flux variations did not occur. Thus, the reproducibility of the tropical air–sea CO 2 flux variability with data assimilation can be significantly attributed to the reproducibility of ENSO in an ESM. Our results suggest that, when using data assimilation to initialize ESMs for carbon cycle predictions, the reproducibility of the internal climate variations in the model itself is of great importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative, new sets of satellite observation products have been produced for essential climate variables including ocean colour, sea surface temperature, sea level, and sea ice. These new products have been assimilated into a global physical–biogeochemical ocean model to create a set of 13-year reanalyses at 1 ∘ resolution and 3-year reanalyses at 1/4 ∘ resolution. In a series of experiments, the variables were assimilated individually and in combination in order to assess their consistency from a data assimilation perspective. The satellite products, and the reanalyses assimilating them, were found to be consistent in their representation of spatial features such as fronts, sea ice extent, and bloom activity. Assimilating multiple variables together often resulted in larger mean increments for a variable than assimilating it individually, providing information about model biases and compensating errors which could be addressed in the future development of the model and assimilation scheme. Sea surface fugacity of carbon dioxide had lower errors against independent observations in the higher-resolution simulations and was improved by assimilating ocean colour or sea ice concentration, but it was degraded by assimilating sea surface temperature or sea level anomaly. Phytoplankton biomass correlated more strongly with net air–sea heat fluxes in the reanalyses than chlorophyll concentration did, and the correlation was weakened by assimilating ocean colour data, suggesting that studies of phytoplankton bloom initiation based solely on chlorophyll data may not provide a full understanding of the underlying processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare results obtained from modeling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different modeling methodologies and sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. Here, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model–model and model–data comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP's core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 and present further simulations in which we test model sensitivity to variations in paleogeography, orbit, and the concentration of CO2. Firstly, we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the challenges recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.29 ∘C colder in PlioMIP2 if compared to PlioMIP1 (17.82 ∘C in PlioMIP1, 17.53 ∘C in PlioMIP2; values based on simulated surface skin temperature). On the one hand, high-latitude warming, which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), and the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated paleogeography. Our PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than those derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2 accounts for 0.5 ∘C of temperature difference in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Beyond the official set of PlioMIP2 simulations, we present further simulations and analyses that sample the phase space of potential alternative orbital forcings that have acted during the Pliocene and may have impacted geological records. Employing orbital forcing, which differs from that proposed for PlioMIP2 (i.e., corresponding to pre-industrial conditions) but falls into the mid-Pliocene time period targeted in PlioMIP, leads to pronounced annual and seasonal temperature variations. Our result identifies the changes in mid-Pliocene paleogeography from PRISM3 to PRISM4 as the major driver of the mid-Pliocene warmth within PlioMIP and not the minor differences in forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeoclimate model simulations are an important tool to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change. These simulations also provide tests of the ability of models to simulate climates very different to today. Here we present the results from two brand-new simulations using the latest version of the UK's physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC3.1; they are the mid-Holocene (∼6 ka) and Last Interglacial (∼127 ka) simulations, both conducted under the auspices of CMIP6/PMIP4. This is the first time this version of the UK model has been used to conduct palaeoclimate simulations. These periods are of particular interest to PMIP4 because they represent the two most recent warm periods in Earth history, where atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and continental configuration are similar to the pre-industrial period but where there were significant changes to the Earth's orbital configuration, resulting in a very different seasonal cycle of radiative forcing. Results for these simulations are assessed firstly against the same model's pre-industrial control simulation (a simulation comparison, to describe and understand the differences between the pre-industrial – PI – and the two palaeo simulations) and secondly against previous versions of the same model relative to newly available proxy data (a model–data comparison, to compare all available simulations from the same model with proxy data to assess any improvements due to model advances). The introduction of this newly available proxy data adds further novelty to this study. Globally, for metrics such as 1.5 m temperature and surface rainfall, whilst both the recent palaeoclimate simulations are mostly capturing the expected sign and, in some places, magnitude of change relative to the pre-industrial, this is geographically and seasonally dependent. Compared to newly available proxy data (including sea surface temperature – SST – and rainfall) and also incorporating data from previous versions of the model shows that the relative accuracy of the simulations appears to vary according to metric, proxy reconstruction used for comparison and geographical location. In some instances, such as mean rainfall in the mid-Holocene, there is a clear and linear improvement, relative to proxy data, from the oldest to the newest generation of the model. When zooming into northern Africa, a region known to be problematic for models in terms of rainfall enhancement, the behaviour of the West African monsoon in both recent palaeoclimate simulations is consistent with current understanding, suggesting a wetter monsoon during the mid-Holocene and (more so) the Last Interglacial, relative to the pre-industrial era. However, regarding the well-documented "Saharan greening" during the mid-Holocene, results here suggest that the most recent version of the UK's physical model is still unable to reproduce the increases suggested by proxy data, consistent with all other previous models to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (>10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with "memory" or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (<1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O2 and pH increases with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to 5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Giant clams (Tridacna) are the largest marine bivalves, and their carbonate shells can be used for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions. In this contribution, δ18O shell was used to estimate climatic variation in the Xisha Islands of the South China Sea. We first evaluate sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) influence on the modern resampled monthly (r -monthly) resolution of Tridacna gigas δ18O shell. The results obtained reveal that δ18O shell seasonal variation is mainly controlled by SST and appears to be insensitive to local SSS change. Thus, the δ18O of Tridacna shells can be roughly used as a proxy of local SST: a 1 ‰ δ18O shell change is roughly equal to 4.41 ∘ C of SST. The r -monthly δ18O of a 40-year-old Tridacna squamosa (3673±28 BP) from the North Reef of the Xisha Islands was analyzed and compared with the modern specimen. The difference between the average δ18O of the fossil Tridacna shell (δ18O =-1.34 ‰) and the modern Tridacna specimen (δ18O =-1.15 ‰) probably implies a warm climate, roughly 0.84 ∘ C, 3700 years ago. The seasonal variation 3700 years ago was slightly lower than that suggested by modern instrumental data, and the transition between warm and cold seasons was rapid. Higher amplitudes of reconstructed r -monthly and r -annual SST anomalies imply an enhanced climate variability during this warm period. Investigation of the El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation (based on the reconstructed SST series) indicates reduced ENSO frequency but increased ENSO-related variability and extreme El Ninõ winter events 3700 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conventional parameterization of midlatitude warm fog occurrence, based on in situ observations, is employed to estimate marine surface visibility in the Arctic and North Atlantic from three datasets: an ensemble member of the Hadley Earth System (HadGEM2) model and a nested regional WRF simulation that follow historical and future emissions scenarios for 1979-2100, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 1979-2004. Over large scales (of an entire year and region), all three gridded datasets agree well in terms of variables like surface air temperature, whose systematic differences seem small by comparison with its predicted change over the course of this century. On the other hand, systematic differences are more apparent in large-scale estimates of relative humidity and visibility. Large differences are attributed to a sensitivity to representation bias that is inherent in the formulation of each individual model and analysis. Two simple linear calibrations are examined, both of which assume that an in situ based parameterization is broadly consistent with the use of marine (ICOADS) observations of air and dew point temperature as an errorfree reference. A single-step calibration is considered that takes the mean and variance of ICOADS frequency distributions as a reference. A two-step calibration is also performed in which ICOADS collocations are taken as a reference for the ERA reanalysis, which in turn is taken as a large-scale reference for the 1979-2004 HadGEM2 and WRF simulations. Both linear calibrations are applied (locally in time and space to air and dew point temperature) to the future climate scenarios of HadGEM2 and WRF. Although ICOADS observations are not error-free and parameterized visibility estimates are unlikely to capture much more than half the variance found in observations, attempts are made to present consistent regional changes in the frequency of high relative humidity, as a proxy for warm fog occurrence. The large-scale decrease in visibility over the 21st century is in the range of 8%-12% in the Arctic and 0%-5% in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstructions are fundamentally uncertain because no proxy is a direct record of a single environmental variable of interest; all proxies are indirect and sensitive to multiple forcing factors. One productive approach to reducing proxy uncertainty is the integration of information from multiple proxy systems with complementary, overlapping sensitivity. Mostly, such analyses are conducted in an ad hoc fashion, either through qualitative comparison to assess the similarity of single-proxy reconstructions or through step-wise quantitative interpretations where one proxy is used to constrain a variable relevant to the interpretation of a second proxy. Here we propose the integration of multiple proxies via the joint inversion of proxy system and paleoenvironmental time series models in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. The "Joint Proxy Inversion" (JPI) method provides a statistically robust approach to producing self-consistent interpretations of multi-proxy datasets, allowing full and simultaneous assessment of all proxy and model uncertainties to obtain quantitative estimates of past environmental conditions. Other benefits of the method include the ability to use independent information on climate and environmental systems to inform the interpretation of proxy data, to fully leverage information from unevenly and differently sampled proxy records, and to obtain refined estimates of proxy model parameters that are conditioned on paleo-archive data. Application of JPI to the marine Mg/Ca and δ18O proxy systems at two distinct timescales demonstrates many of the key properties, benefits, and sensitivities of the method, and it produces new, statistically grounded reconstructions of Neogene ocean temperature and chemistry from previously published data. We suggest that JPI is a universally applicable method that can be implemented using proxy models of wide-ranging complexity to generate more robust, quantitative understanding of past climatic and environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and its precipitation-related teleconnections over the globe under climate change are investigated in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1950 to 2100. For the investigation, a recently developed ensemble-based method, the snapshot empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) analysis, is used. The instantaneous ENSO pattern is defined as the leading mode of the SEOF analysis carried out at a given time instant over the ensemble. The corresponding principal components (PC1s) characterize the ENSO phases. By considering sea surface temperature (SST) regression maps, we find that the largest changes in the typical amplitude of SST fluctuations occur in the June–July–August–September (JJAS) season, in the Niño3–Niño3.4 (5 ∘ N–5 ∘ S, 170–90 ∘ W; NOAA Climate Prediction Center) region, and the western part of the Pacific Ocean; however, the increase is also considerable along the Equator in December–January–February (DJF). The Niño3 amplitude also shows an increase of about 20 % and 10 % in JJAS and DJF, respectively. The strength of the precipitation-related teleconnections of the ENSO is found to be nonstationary, as well. For example, the anticorrelation with precipitation in Australia in JJAS and the positive correlation in central and northern Africa in DJF are predicted to be more pronounced by the end of the 21th century. Half-year-lagged correlations, aiming to predict precipitation conditions from ENSO phases, are also studied. The Australian and Indonesian precipitation and that of the eastern part of Africa in both JJAS and DJF seem to be well predictable based on the ENSO phase, while the southern Indian precipitation relates to the half-year previous ENSO phase only in DJF. The strength of these connections increases, especially from the African region to the Arabian Peninsula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate system model (RCSM; with the atmospheric component COSMO-CLM and the ocean component NEMO) over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. To test the model, we evaluate a simulation of more than 100 years (1900–2009) with a spatial grid resolution of about 25 km. The simulation was nested into a coupled global simulation with the model MPI-ESM in a low-resolution configuration, whose ocean temperature and salinity were nudged to the ocean–ice component of the MPI-ESM forced with the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). The evaluation shows the robustness of the RCSM and discusses the added value by the coupled marginal seas over an atmosphere-only simulation. The coupled system is stable for the complete 20th century and provides a better representation of extreme temperatures compared to the atmosphere-only model. The produced long-term dataset will help us to better understand the processes leading to meteorological and climate extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global surface temperature (ST) datasets are the foundation for global climate change research. Several global ST datasets have been developed by different groups in NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, UK Met Office Hadley Centre & UEA CRU, and Berkeley Earth. In this study, a new global ST dataset named China Merged Surface Temperature (CMST) was presented. CMST is created by merging the China-Land Surface Air Temperature (C-LSAT1.3) with sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5). The merge of C-LSAT and ERSSTv5 shows a high spatial coverage extended to the high latitudes and is more consistent with a reference of multi-dataset averages in the polar regions. Comparisons indicated that CMST is consistent with other existing global ST datasets in interannual and decadal variations and long-term trends at global, hemispheric, and regional scales from 1900 to 2017. The CMST dataset can be used for global climate change assessment, monitoring, and detection. The CMST dataset presented here is publicly available at 10.1594/PANGAEA.901295 (Li, 2019a) and has been published on the Climate Explorer website of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) at http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=cmst (last access: 11 August 2018; Li, 2019b, c). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) exhibits strong spatial and temporal oceanographic variability, resulting in highly heterogeneous biological productivity. Calcifying organisms that live in the waters off the WAP respond to temporal and spatial variations in ocean temperature and chemistry. These marine calcifiers are potentially threatened by regional climate change with waters already naturally close to carbonate undersaturation. Future projections of carbonate production in the Southern Ocean are challenging due to the lack of historical data collection and complex, decadal climate variability. Here we present a 6-year-long record of the shell fluxes, morphology and stable isotope variability of the polar planktic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sensu stricto) from near Palmer Station, Antarctica. This species is fundamental to Southern Ocean planktic carbonate production as it is one of the very few planktic foraminifer species adapted to the marine polar environments. We use these new data to obtain insights into its ecology and to derive a robust assessment of the response of this polar species to environmental change. Morphology and stable isotope composition reveal the presence of different growth stages within this tightly defined species. Inter- and intra-annual variability of foraminiferal flux and size is evident and driven by a combination of environmental forcing parameters, most importantly food availability, temperature and sea ice duration and extent. Foraminiferal growth occurs throughout the austral year and is influenced by environmental change, a large portion of which is driven by the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A distinct seasonal production is observed, with the highest shell fluxes during the warmest and most productive months of the year. The sensitivity of calcifying foraminifera to environmental variability in this region, from weeks to decades, has implications both for their response to future climatic change and for their use as palaeoclimate indicators. A longer ice-free season could increase carbonate production in this region at least while carbonate saturation is still high enough to allow for thick tests to grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main advancements of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) climate system model from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to phase 6 (CMIP6) are presented, in terms of physical parameterizations and model performance. BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1m are the two models involved in CMIP5, whereas BCC-CSM2-MR, BCC-CSM2-HR, and BCC-ESM1.0 are the three models configured for CMIP6. Historical simulations from 1851 to 2014 from BCC-CSM2-MR (CMIP6) and from 1851 to 2005 from BCC-CSM1.1m (CMIP5) are used for models assessment. The evaluation matrices include the following: (a) the energy budget at top-of-atmosphere; (b) surface air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation for the global and East Asia regions; (c) the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific; (d) sea-ice extent and thickness and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); and (e) climate variations at different timescales, such as the global warming trend in the 20th century, the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Compared with BCC-CSM1.1m, BCC-CSM2-MR shows significant improvements in many aspects including the tropospheric air temperature and circulation at global and regional scales in East Asia and climate variability at different timescales, such as the QBO, the MJO, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, interannual variations of SST in the equatorial Pacific, and the long-term trend of surface air temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present Nemo-Nordic, a Baltic and North Sea model based on the NEMO ocean engine. Surrounded by highly industrialized countries, the Baltic and North seas and their assets associated with shipping, fishing and tourism are vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Ocean models providing reliable forecasts and enabling climatic studies are important tools for the shipping infrastructure and to get a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the marine ecosystems. Nemo-Nordic is intended to be a tool for both short-term and long-term simulations and to be used for ocean forecasting as well as process and climatic studies. Here, the scientific and technical choices within Nemo-Nordic are introduced, and the reasons behind the design of the model and its domain and the inclusion of the two seas are explained. The model's ability to represent barotropic and baroclinic dynamics, as well as the vertical structure of the water column, is presented. Biases are shown and discussed. The short-term capabilities of the model are presented, especially its capabilities to represent sea level on an hourly timescale with a high degree of accuracy. We also show that the model can represent longer timescales, with a focus on the major Baltic inflows and the variability in deep-water salinity in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT) began ∼ 430 ka with an increase in the amplitude of the 100 kyr climate cycles of the past 800 000 years. The MBT has been identified in ice-core records, which indicate interglaciations became warmer with higher atmospheric CO2 levels after the MBT, and benthic oxygen isotope (δ18O) records, which suggest that post-MBT interglaciations had higher sea levels and warmer temperatures than pre-MBT interglaciations. It remains unclear, however, whether the MBT was a globally synchronous phenomenon that included other components of the climate system. Here, we further characterize changes in the climate system across the MBT through statistical analyses of ice-core and δ18O records as well as sea-surface temperature, benthic carbon isotope, and dust accumulation records. Our results demonstrate that the MBT was a global event with a significant increase in climate variance in most components of the climate system assessed here. However, our results indicate that the onset of high-amplitude variability in temperature, atmospheric CO2 , and sea level at ∼430 ka was preceded by changes in the carbon cycle, ice sheets, and monsoon strength during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 14 and MIS 13. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Last Interglacial period (LIG), the transition from 125 to 115 ka provides a case study for assessing the response of the carbon system to different levels of high-latitude warmth. Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for interglacial changes in the ocean carbon inventory provides constraints on natural carbon sources and sinks and their climate sensitivity, which are essential for assessing potential future changes. However, the mechanisms leading to modifications of the ocean's carbon budget during this period remain poorly documented and not well understood. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we analyze the changes in oceanic carbon dynamics by comparing two quasi-equilibrium states: the early, warm Eemian (125 ka) versus the cooler, late Eemian (115 ka). We find considerably reduced ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC; -314.1 PgC) storage in the warm climate state at 125 ka as compared to 115 ka, mainly attributed to changes in the biological pump and ocean DIC disequilibrium components. The biological pump is mainly driven by changes in interior ocean ventilation timescales, but the processes controlling the changes in ocean DIC disequilibrium remain difficult to assess and seem more regionally affected. While the Atlantic bottom-water disequilibrium is affected by the organization of sea-ice-induced southern-sourced water (SSW) and northern-sourced water (NSW), the upper-layer changes remain unexplained. Due to its large size, the Pacific accounts for the largest DIC loss, approximately 57 % of the global decrease. This is largely associated with better ventilation of the interior Pacific water mass. However, the largest simulated DIC differences per unit volume are found in the SSWs of the Atlantic. Our study shows that the deep-water geometry and ventilation in the South Atlantic are altered between the two climate states where warmer climatic conditions cause SSWs to retreat southward and NSWs to extent further south. This process is mainly responsible for the simulated DIC reduction by restricting the extent of DIC-rich SSW, thereby reducing the storage of biological remineralized carbon at depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the Australian monsoon to external forcings and related mechanisms during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are investigated by multi-model experiments in CMIP5–PMIP3. Although the annual mean precipitation over the Australian monsoon region decreases, the annual range, or the monsoonality, is enhanced. The precipitation increases in early austral summer and decreases in austral winter, resulting in the amplified annual range, but the main contribution comes from the decreased precipitation in austral winter. The decreased winter precipitation is primarily caused by weakened upward motion, although reduced water vapor also has a moderate contribution. The weakened upward motion is induced by the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, which intensifies the divergence over northern Australia. The increased Australian monsoon rainfall in early summer, however, is an integrated result of the positive effect of local dynamic processes (enhanced moisture convergence) and the negative effect of thermodynamics (reduced moisture content). The enhanced moisture convergence is caused by two factors: the strengthened northwest–southeast thermal contrast between the cooler Indochina–western Indonesia and the warmer northeastern Australia, and the east–west sea surface temperature gradients between the warmer western Pacific and cooler eastern Indian Ocean, both due to the alteration of land–sea configuration arising from the sea level drop. The enhanced Australian monsoonality in the LGM is not associated with global-scale circulation change such as the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone; rather, it is mainly due to the change of regional circulations around Australia arising from the changes in land–sea contrast and the east–west SST gradients over the Indian and western Pacific oceans. This finding should be taken into account when investigating its future change under global warming. Our findings may also explain why proxy records indicate different changes in Australian monsoon precipitation during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the extension of the poorly oxygenated regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean was assessed using a coupled ocean circulation–biogeochemical model. We show that during a "typical" PDO-positive phase the volume of the suboxic regions expands by 7 % over 50 years due to a slowdown of the large-scale circulation related to the decrease in the intensity of the trade winds. Changes in oxygen levels are mostly controlled by advective processes between 10 ∘ N and 10 ∘ S, whereas diffusive processes are dominant poleward of 10 ∘ : in a "typical" PDO-positive phase the sluggish equatorial current system provides less oxygen to the eastern equatorial part of the basin while the oxygen transport by diffusive processes significantly decreases south of 10 ∘ S. The suboxic region located north of 10 ∘ N displays less sensitivity to the phase of the PDO as the local upwelling-related processes play a dominant role compared to the large-scale circulation in setting the oxygen concentration. Our study suggests that the prevailing PDO-positive conditions since 1975 may explain a significant part of the current deoxygenation occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstruction of sea surface temperatures from the oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of calcite biominerals synthesised in the mesopelagic zone of the oceans requires knowledge of the δ18O of seawater and constraints on the magnitude of biological 18O/16O fractionation (the so-called vital effect). In the palaeoceanography community, seawater δ18O and salinity are unduly treated as a common parameter owing to their strong covariation both geographically and in the geological register. If the former parameter has arguably no notable influence on the biogeochemistry of marine calcifiers, salinity potentially does. However, how salinity per se and the effect of osmotic adjustment can modulate the biogeochemistry, and in turn, the expression of the vital effect in calcite biomineral such as the coccoliths remains undocumented. In this culture-based study of coccolithophores (Haptophyta) belonging to the Noelaerhabdaceae family, we kept temperature and seawater δ18O constant, and measured basic physiological parameters (growth rate and cell size), and the isotope composition (18O/16O and 13C/12C ) of coccoliths grown under a range of salinity, between 29 and 39. Ultimately, the overarching aim of this biogeochemical study is to refine the accuracy of palaeotemperature estimates using fossil coccoliths. We found that despite significant physiological changes in the coccolithophores, varying salinity does not modulate biological fractionation of oxygen isotopes. This observation contrasts with previous in vitro manipulations of temperature and carbonate chemistry that led to substantial changes in the expression of the vital effect. As such, salinity does not affect temperature estimation from coccolith-bearing pelagic sequences deposited during periods of change in ice volume, especially at the highest latitudes, or in coastal regions. By contrast, the carbon isotope composition of the coccoliths is influenced by a growth rate mediated control of salinity with implications for deriving productivity indices from pelagic carbonate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]