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Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed to advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaysia has focused its self-sufficiency policy on rice and paddy production, which are the country's primary staple food and food crop. Throughout the Eleventh Malaysian Plan (2016–2020) and National Agro-Food Policy (2011–2020), Malaysia continues its proactive and progressive measures to promote paddy and rice sector development. The impacts of climate change, however, are projected to exacerbate challenges in increasing paddy yields and achieving food security in the future. Hence, this paper attempts to discuss climate change impacts on rice production and food security in Malaysia succinctly. Using Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope, our analysis exhibited the increased minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature in the granary areas, ranging from 0.3°C to 0.5°C and 0.2°C to 0.3°C, respectively, in every decade. At the same time, precipitation has shown an increasing trend, ranging from 133 mm to 200 mm. Apart from the trend analysis, we conducted a literature review to substantiate our discussion. The findings signified that climate change poses a severe threat to paddy production, which eventually will affect food security as they are highly interrelated. Thus, it is high time for Malaysia to revamp its paddy and rice intervention strategies by giving due attention to enhancing the adaptive capacity of paddy farmers to cope with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at describing if, in a context of global gridlock and emerging issues such as climate change, a decisive role could be played by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Despite these countries experiencing internal and structural problems, they could represent an innovative answer to the functioning of the current global framework. In fact, even though they are not considered to be as accountable as western countries in many areas, their leading commitment to global issues such as climate change could provide an important solution to strengthening their weak 'soft power'. By working together to instigate global change, and taking advantage of Western 'decline', can the BRICS play a decisive role in shaping global governance? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moraine dams, impounding glacial lakes, are among the weak natural dams because of their slope, freeboard and composition. Glacial lake outburst floods occurring due to the failure of moraine dams are significant hazards for the valley downstream the failure, as they possess huge amount of hydraulic energy that can kill thousands and destroy infrastructures and riverine landscape. Also, the entrainment of debris to the flow from the breaching process and downstream channel may develop the flow into a much bigger disaster or even a series of hazard chain. Ice and rock avalanche or landslide, glacier calving, degradation of ice cores, earthquake and atmospheric events trigger the breaching phenomenon which generates a series of waves overtopping the dam or seepage causing the failure of the dam. Various approaches have been discussed in this review paper to produce an understanding of the failure mechanism of moraine dams: experimental works, empirical relationships, analytical solutions, and numerical modelling. No concrete experimental investigations and parametric solutions pertained to the failure mechanism of moraine dam is found in the review, but various empirical relationships are discussed and suitable approaches for numerical modelling are suggested as per the requirement of the task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revealing the future spatial-temporal patterns of heatwave impacts on crops due to global climate change is of great scientific significance for climate change-related agricultural hazards prevention. However, the prediction of future wheat heatwave considering the planting distribution, growth period of wheat, as well as heatwave frequencies, days, and intensities remain poorly understood. In this paper, using predicted meteorological data of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario from 2011 to 2099 as well as a set of indicators that include heatwave days, frequencies and effective accumulative high temperatures, a comprehensive evaluation was performed to characterize the spatial-temporal variability of the heatwave hazard impacts on wheat in northern China under extreme climate scenarios. The results indicate that heatwaves across the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Xinjiang, western Gansu and the agro-pastoral ecotone are most frequent in the long-term. Heatwaves show significant increasing trends with regard to future occurrence frequency, days and intensities. The heatwave hazard on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Northeast China, and the agro-pastoral ecotone shows a rapid growth trend, and there is a clear transition from relatively low heatwave hazard to a higher hazard. We argue that the continuous increase in heatwaves may pose a great threat to wheat production in northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses articles in the issue on topics including responses of large mammals to climate change; and the HEATSHIELD, a project aimed at protecting the population from the increasing frequency and magnitude of heat events.

Interdisciplinary research is becoming increasingly important to tackle complex problems such as climate change. Human behavior is one key factor that needs to be considered to find solutions to these complex problems. Working in an interdisciplinary field requires scientists to engage in tedious studies of disciplines that are beyond their core expertise. This is also true for the selection of behavioral science approaches best suitable for the research question at hand. To provide a concise introduction to behavioral science, this article provides four clusters of behavioral science approaches. These four clusters, in conjunction with the further developed 4 DBC framework, can assist the analyst in systematically selecting the most suitable behavioral science approach. To illustrate the application of the framework, the examples of cycling and Practice Theory are used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The interaction of climate change and financial fragility is set to challenge States' abilities to manage their economies. This article examines the configurations of industries for selected countries, revealing the vulnerabilities where climate change will have the severest impacts. The use of the foundational economy concept facilitates an analysis of financial fragility by isolating activities in national accounts data which contribute to human needs. Improvements in the satisfaction of human needs will require innovative State initiatives, including ways to lighten sovereign debt burdens to free funding for new programs. A Universal Basic Services scheme is a promising initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the consideration of climate change in environmental assessment (EA) in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, British Columbia, Canada. Based on an analysis of recent EA applications, results show that climate change is considered, to some extent, in all phases of EA for most LNG projects. However, stakeholders indicate a dissatisfaction with practice – often based on expectations about EA that exceed what it can deliver as a project-based tool, and sometimes based on an incomplete understanding of existing climate change legislation and targets. Results also indicate inconsistent application of existing climate change requirements across project EAs. Notwithstanding proponents often addressing climate change in their EA applications, climate change tends to receive little attention in project decision and approval conditions. The paper concludes with recommendations for better practice climate change consideration in EA that is commensurate with the scope and scale of project-level issues, complemented by more strategic EA and economic instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue reviews the state of biodiversity conservation in New Zealand, following the establishment of the Department of Conservation (DOC) in 1987. Here we summarise events that led to the formation of DOC, and the unprecedented series of changes in how biodiversity conservation has been viewed and conducted. Subsequent papers in this issue outline the successes, failures and key technological shifts in biodiversity conservation in New Zealand in the past 30 years; how visionary people and institutions have instigated conservation at landscape scales and in urban areas; the growing roles of Māori and non-Māori communities; and audacious new goals that reflect continuing attitudinal changes to the conservation of native biodiversity alongside the global and local implications of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation is a key concept in long‐term human adjustments to climate change. Despite the centrality of human decisions and actions in adaptation, much of the climate change literature is thin on humanities and social science which are the primary approaches for understanding human activity. This situation is particularly pronounced in Louisiana's discussions about its disappearing coast line where research has concentrated in understanding biophysical processes and solutions prioritize short‐term adaptations. This paper reviews the relationship of adaptation and long‐term transitions in the global change discussion and traces how disjointed adaptations in coastal Louisiana have contributed to a perilous environmental situation there. It proposes a shift from discrete adaptations to efforts that incorporate interrelated biophysical and human adaptations that can sustain long‐term transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The links between science and policy are navigated prominently in the media. The internet provides a forum for discussion of climate change, allowing lay people to enter the debate. In this paper, rhetorical analysis was used to analyse online news articles and comments from the public following two major climate-related decisions in New Zealand. This analysis demonstrates how arguments regarding climate change are built and defended. Identifying strategies invoked by those that occupy a majority or minority position within public discourse on climate change reveals how such arguments take on rhetorical force, providing the basis for establishing claims and counter-arguments. Understanding the rhetorical constructions of such positions can reveal why particular arguments might gain power, opening the way for a more knowledgeable and informed positioning of individuals, organisations, and scientific knowledge to emerge in public debates on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-of-the-art hydrological climate impact assessment involves ensemble approaches to address uncertainties. For precipitation, a wide range of climate model runs is available. However, for particular meteorological variables used for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (ETo), availability of climate model runs is limited. It is preferred that climate model runs are considered coupled when calculating changes in precipitation and ETo amounts, in order to preserve the internal physical consistency. This results in constraints on the maximum ensemble size. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between climate change signals of precipitation and ETo. It is found that, for two medium-sized catchments in Belgium, uncoupling climate model runs used for calculation of change signals of precipitation and ETo amounts does not result in a significant bias for changes in extreme flow. With these results, future impact studies can be conducted with larger ensemble sizes, resulting in a more complete uncertainty estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This review paper describes a novel approach to plant cultivation under soil-less culture. At present, global climate change is expected to raise the risk of frequent drought. Agriculture is in a phase of major change around the world and dealing with serious problems. In future, it would be difficult task to provide a fresh and clean food supply for the fast-growing population using traditional agriculture. Under such circumstances, the soil-less cultivation is the alternative technology to adapt effectively. The soil-less system associated with the Hydroponic and Aeroponics system. In the aeroponics system, plant roots are hanging in the artificially provided plastic holder and foam material replacement of the soil under controlled conditions. The roots are allowed to dangle freely and openly in the air. However, the nutrient rich-water deliver with atomization nozzles. The nozzles create a fine spray mist of different droplet size at intermittently or continuously. This review concludes that aeroponics system is considered the best plant growing method for food security and sustainable development. The system has shown some promising returns in various countries and recommended as the most efficient, useful, significant, economical and convenient plant growing system then soil and other soil-less methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes are important for ensuring the development of the regional economy and ecological security. Based on MODIS and Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images captured in 2005-2015 and a Combined Water Index (CWI), this paper extracted information on changes in the temporal and spatial characteristics and driving forces for lake areas in Xinjiang during past 11 years in different seasons (April, July and September). The results showed that over this time period, the area of the lakes exhibited an increasing trend. The largest surface area usually occurred in April, and the lowest value was measured in September. The lake shrinkage area in Xinjiang occurred mainly in Northern Xinjiang and the northeastern region of Southern Xinjiang, whereas the lake expansion area was concentrated in Eastern Xinjiang. Seasonal changes in Manas, Kanas, Barkol, Arkatag, Arik and Ebinur Lakes showed higher trends. Extracted the lake area based on the MODIS and TM/OLI image were analyzed, and both had a good corresponding relationship. The minimum R2 was 0.548, and maximum RMSE was 44.1km2. Therefore, it was feasible to use MODIS to extract lake area. These changes in lake area resulted from both natural factors and human activities, and coupled effects greatly accelerated local environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of impervious surfaces in urban areas combined with the rise in the intensity of rainfall events as a result of climate change has led to dangerous increases in storm water flows. This paper discusses a new implementation of the fully distributed hydrological model Multi-Hydro (developed at École des Ponts ParisTech), when operating storage basins, and its ability to deal with high-resolution radar rainfall data. The peri-urban area of Massy (south of Paris, France) was selected as a case study for having six of these drainage facilities, used extensively in flood control. Two radar rainfall datasets with different spatiotemporal resolutions were used: Météo-France’s PANTHER rainfall product (C-band) and ENPC’s X-band DPSRI. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability was analysed statistically using Universal Multifractals (UM). Finally, to validate the application, the water level simulations were compared with local measurements in the Cora storage basin located next to the catchment’s single outlet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, with a constant increase in the Earth temperature, negatively affects livestock production and health. This paper will focus on the possible nutritional and feeding strategies to mitigate the negative impact of heat stress (HS) on ruminants. The first nutrient interacting with hot weather conditions is fibre and its digestibility. It is well recognised how fibre may affect voluntary dry matter intake (DMI), chewing and ruminating activity. A possible dietary strategy to counteract the reduced DMI under hot environment is represented by the increased diet energy concentration, protein supply and essential aminoacids. Mineral feeding under HS condition must cover the supply of each nutrient as consequence of altered turnover, and the needs related to buffer requirements. Particular interest is growing in the use of Se (Se-yeast), because of its role to support the animal antioxidative defences. Water is a pivotal nutrient to cope with HS in ruminants because it plays a role in animal thermoregulation. Recently, some vitamins and feed additives were studied for their action on the animal physiology to cope with HS. Among vitamins, niacin was tested for its action on the vasodilatation in the mammalian and for its role in lipid metabolism; among feed additives, yeasts and plant extracts may exert a positive action in rumen metabolism as well as in regulation of body temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1990s, Lithuania lost almost one-quarter of its population, and some regions within the country lost more than 50% of their residents. Such a sharp population decline poses major challenges to politicians, policy-makers and planners. The aim of this study is to obtain more insight into the recent processes of socio-spatial change and the role of selective migration in Lithuania. The main focus is on understanding who lives in those regions which are rapidly losing population, and who is most likely to leave these regions. This is one of the first studies to use individual-level Lithuanian census data from 2001 and 2011. We found that low socio-economic status residents and older residents dominate the population of shrinking regions, and unsurprisingly that the most ‘successful’ people are the most likely to leave such regions. This process of selective migration reinforces the negative downward spiral of declining regions. As a result, socio-spatial polarization is growing within the country, where people with higher socio-economic status are increasingly overrepresented in the largest city-regions, while the elderly and residents with a lower socio-economic status are overrepresented in declining rural regions. This paper provides empirical evidence of selective migration and increasing regional disparities in Lithuania. While the socio-spatial changes are obvious in Lithuania, there is no clear strategy on how to cope with extreme population decline and increasing regional inequalities within the country. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The 2015 UN Paris Agreement reinforced and declared compatible the two goals of avoiding dire climate change and maintaining global economic growth, and it specified that technological innovation is ‘critical’ to this joint achievement. Unfortunately, any confidence that near-term global economic growth is consistent with a stabilized climate is severely undermined by empirical evidence. Despite the rapid increase of alternative energies in recent decades, global GDP growth continues to require burning greater quantities of climate-destabilizing fossil fuels. The dim outlook for sufficiently reducing CO2while maintaining economic growth is underscored by global data and Germany specific data on the decoupling of GDP from CO2. This paper summarizes pertinent climate science, substantiates the dependence of economic growth on fossil fuels, and uses the Kaya identity to demonstrate the unfavorable prospects for reducing CO2while maintaining GDP growth. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change and the processes of urbanization alter the hydrologic and hydraulic regime of runoffs formation in urban areas. Low impact infrastructure development (LID) contributes to achieving conditions of invariance hydrological and hydraulics. The purpose of this work is to identify an index of synthetic sustainability (SSI) based on life cycle assessment (LCA). Such LCA evaluates design alternatives through the comparison of the different values of the SSI. The proposed methodology allows the evaluation of the SSI attributing to the individual layers of the LIDs different weights and taking into account both of the influence that each of them perform on invariance hydrologic and hydraulic both of the LCA normalized output. In this paper is showed a methodological implementation obtained by the analysis of a green roof and a permeable pavement. This green roof has been realized, on real scale, in the Urban Hydrology Experimental Park in University of Calabria (Italy). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of recent climate change on the phenology of avian breeding and migration, geographical range shifts, and decreasing migration distances are well documented. Only a few studies have focused on the long-term influence of these changes on the body condition of migrants, which is important as it is likely to affect the fitness of the whole population. Eurasian blackcaps have adapted their migratory behaviour to changing ecological factors. These changes seem to favour the species and its migratory populations have increased over the last decades in Europe. In the present study, we analysed the body condition index of juvenile blackcaps at their stop-over site in the southern Baltic region during autumn migration from 1967 to 2006. This index was distinctly higher since the 1990s than in the middle of the 1960s, when the number of migrating blackcaps was at least twofold lower. Moreover, there was a reduction in recapture rates of blackcaps from 14% to 6% during these periods which may imply that warblers were staying for a shorter time at the stop-over site as their body condition was higher. We hypothesized that higher berry crop availability resulted in the higher condition of migrating blackcaps. Body condition index also reflecting fuel load in migrants was higher in long-distance blackcaps compared to the short-distance ones. As the former are time-minimizing migrants, their higher body condition/fuel load may allow them to migrate faster to wintering grounds in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on sustainability and energy transition aims to identify the structural changes that should occur and how they could be achieved and managed to render society more viable. Institutions are the providers of an appropriate environment that should offer those conditions and allow citizens to undertake activities that meet both individual and societal goals. Climate emergency and transition constraints recast economic and political structures and put institutions under pressure in the face of global risks. Two of them, climate risks and financial risks, can be regarded as sources of systemic risk since they determine the conditions of viability of our economies and societies. This article argues that an appropriate institutional reform is required to frame macroprudential policies for financial regulation and tackle climate change by greening finance and containing climate-related financial risks. The article then assesses the scope of a macro-regulatory institutional framework to provide relevant support for sustainable finance and financial markets to improve our ability to secure a viable future for our societies. Long-term sustainable financial tools for financing the transition require definancialization of the economy to prevent the perversion of financial practices that undermine societal sustainability and sabotage financing resources that a greener future inevitably needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the advice of institutionalist Wendell Gordon, the author aims to "tell it like it is" by reflecting on his own path to institutionalism, the economic contributions of post-Keynesian institutionalism, and some of the major issues that deserve institutionalists' further attention. Several heterodox economists are identified as influences contributing to the making of this economic maverick, but so too are Barbara Jordan and Michael Harrington. Then attention is given to the institutionally focused pre-analytic vision of post-Keynesian institutionalism, the inescapable reality of business cycles in market-oriented economies, and the institutionalized myopia of money-manager capitalism. Some key issues warranting our further attention include the expansion of economic insecurity, the threat of authoritarianism, and the climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change influences the emergence, spread, and severity of rust diseases that affect crops and forests. In Korea, the rust diseases that affect Wisteria floribunda and its alternate host Corydalis incisa are rapidly spreading northwards. Through morphological, molecular, phylogenetic, and pathogenicity approaches, Neophysopella kraunhiae was identified as the causal agent, alternating between the two host plants to complete its life cycle. Using the maximum entropy model (Maxent) under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the results of this study suggest that by the 2050s, C. incisa is likely to extend its range into central Korea owing to climate shifts, whereas the distribution of W. floribunda is expected to remain unchanged nationwide. The generalized additive model revealed a significant positive correlation between the presence of C. incisa and the incidence of rust disease, highlighting the role that climate-driven expansion of this alternate host plays in the spread of N. kraunhiae. These findings highlight the profound influence of climate change on both the distribution of a specific plant and the disease a rust fungus causes, raising concerns about the potential emergence and spread of other rust pathogens with similar host dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methane (CH4) is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2), accounting for about 20% of global emissions. CH4 anthropogenic emission sources include landfills, oil and natural gas systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment and certain industrial processes. In this work, we examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH4 and its relationship to climatic and vegetation parameters in the Northern Cape province in South Africa. Various datasets from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project were used. The results show an increasing trend of CH4 concentration throughout the entire province. The greatest increase in CH4 concentration is observed in the western parts of the province during June-July-August (JJA) season. CH4 concentration shows negligible correlation with most climatic parameters, i.e. Temperature (Temp), Precipitation (Precip) and NDVI for both seasons. The Temp-NDVI relationship shows high correlation values of r = -0.71 and r = 0.82 for the DJF and JJA seasons, respectively. Seasonality plays a critical role in the relationships of the CH4 to climatic and vegetation parameters. This study shows that we are in a crisis, and robust mitigation strategies are needed to combat this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review presents a comprehensive examination of recent advancements in utilizing multi-date satellite data to analyze spatial and temporal variations in seasonal and inter-annual surface water dynamics within arid environments of Africa. Remote sensing offers continuous, precise, and long-term datasets for surface water research. Various sensors with differing spatial resolutions are discussed, with high-resolution multispectral sensors providing superior spatial resolution but at higher costs. Conversely, dualsensor approaches, incuding optical sensors (Sentinel-2 and Landsat), radar satellites (Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT) and UAVs were investigated. The review further examines the efficiency and applicability of traditional algorithms such as the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), and automated water extraction index (AWEI) in detecting and delineating surface water resources. Additionally, machine learning (ML) algorithms, including support vector machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), deep learning and emerging methodologies like recurrent tranformer networks, have been explored. Therefore, we recommend that future research endeavours focus on leveraging high-resolution satellite imagery and integrating physical models with deep learning techniques, artificial intelligence, and online big data processing platforms to improve surface water mapping capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research shows that China is experiencing significant greening, with afforestation initiatives being the main cause. Quantitative calculation of vegetation change influencing factors and evaluation of the contribution of afforestation to vegetation greening in China are critical to coping with climate change and improving the implementation and efficacy of forestry projects. We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2020, and quantified the contribution of afforestation initiatives, a typical human activity, to the dynamic changes of vegetation. The results showed that NDVI in China has primarily increased in the last 39 years. 57% of the pixels increased, 27% were stable and unchanged, and 16% decreased. Climate change was responsible for 72.34% of vegetation restoration, while human activities were responsible for 27.36% of vegetation restoration, according to residual analysis. In the future, only 14% of the regions showed continuous growth of the NDVI, while the remaining regions showed obvious antipersistence (59% will go from increasing to decreasing, and 22% will go from decreasing to increasing). The contribution of climate factors to vegetation change will decrease in the future, and human activities will become more complex. Except for Huaihe River and Taihu Lake (SPHRTL), other forestry projects showed an increasing trend of NDVI after the implementation of ecological engineering. However, due to differences in climate conditions and ecological engineering implementation, there are differences in the benefits of forestry projects. Some forestry project areas still have obvious vegetation degradation, and appropriate forestry management is necessary. This work provides a quantitative analysis of vegetation change and its driving factors in China, which will help to cope with future climate change and provide a reference for the implementation and management of ecological projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, scholars engage policy makers around fundamental, complex questions on environmental change in interdisciplinary settings. Researchers attempting to develop robust contributions to knowledge that can support policymaker understandings in this context face significant inferential challenges in dealing with the spatial dimension of their phenomenon of interest. In this paper, we extend an understanding of well-defined methodological challenges familiar to applied spatial scientists by explicitly articulating the Decision-Making/Accountability, Spatial Incongruence Problem, or DASIP. Three case studies illustrate how spatial incongruences matter to researchers who work on complex, interdisciplinary problems, while seeking to understand decision-making or policy-related phenomenon: urban heat-island mitigation research in Arizona, water transfer conflicts in Kansas, and hydraulic-fracturing debates in Texas. With such examples, we aim to evoke a deeper understanding of this problem in applied research and also inspire thinking about how scholars might innovate methods for creating knowledge about environmental change that supports spatially accountable decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a large-scale application of the SWAT model for water balance and natural streamflow simulation in the entire basins of the Vistula and the Odra, covering most of the territory of Poland. A tailored calibration approach was designed to achieve satisfactory goodness-of-fit across a range of catchment sizes. Model calibration and evaluation driven by high-resolution climate data showed overall good behaviour for 80 benchmark catchments divided into eight clusters, and spatial evaluation for 30 gauges showed that the designed regionalization scheme performed well (median KGE of 0.76). Basin-averaged estimates of blue and green water flow and green water storage estimated using the calibrated model were 185, 517 and 206 mm, respectively. This study provides a basis for future work, such as assessing climate change impacts on hydrology, assessing flow alterations, and water quality simulation. The model output is publicly available through an online research data archive (doi:10.4121/uuid:b8ab4f5f-f692-4c93-a910-2947aea28f42).EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports conclude that for Australasia, without adaptation, further changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, sea-level rise and ocean acidity are projected to have substantial impacts on climate sensitive systems, sectors and populations. In the context of varying geographical, social, cultural and policy contexts, this paper reviews research contributions and activities concerning coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand. It reflects on the insights derived from this emerging pool of scholarship and considers what lessons have been learned to help us address the future challenges of adaptation to climate change on our coasts and estuaries. In particular, future progress will require strong understanding of natural coastal systems, clearer national direction and guidance in balance with regional flexibility, and collaborative processes to help communities understand, implement and evaluate adaptation pathways for a sustainable and resilient future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the  effects  of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the annual maximum flood (AMF) and volume over threshold (VOT) in two major neighbouring river basins in southwest Iran are investigated. The basins are located upstream of the Dez and Karun-I dams and cover over 40 000 km2in total area. The effects of ENSO on the frequency, magnitude and severity (frequency times magnitude) of flood characteristics over the March–April period were analysed. ENSO indices were also correlated with both AMF and VOT. The results indicate that, in the Dez and Karun basins, the El Niño phenomenon intensifies March–April floods compared with neutral conditions. The opposite is true in La Niña conditions. The degree of the effect is more intense in the El Niño period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subarctic ecosystems are experiencing rapid changes as a result of climate warming and more frequent and severe disturbances. There is considerable uncertainty regarding ecological trajectories following disturbance in forested ecosystems underlain by permafrost because their structure and function is controlled by feedbacks among soil conditions, vegetation, and ground thermal regime. In this paper, we studied post-disturbance ecosystem recovery in an area of discontinuous permafrost 32 years after construction and abandonment of a winter access road in Nahanni National Park Reserve (NNPR). Ecosystem recovery was examined by comparing disturbed (road) and undisturbed (adjacent to the road) sites in the following terrain types: spruce peatland, black spruce parkland, deciduous forest, and alpine treeline terrain. Our field data show that disturbances to discontinuous permafrost terrain can lead to large and persistent changes to ecosystem composition and structure. Our findings indicate that the ecological response of discontinuous permafrost to disturbance and climate warming will depend on interactions between soil conditions and vegetation communities. In instances where disturbance to discontinuous permafrost fundamentally disrupts stabilizing interactions between soil conditions and vegetation communities, we should expect lasting changes to ecosystem structure and function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions is essential in the planning, design and management of water resources systems. Regions are identified using a technique that partitions climate sites into groups based on the similarity of their attributes; the procedure is known as regionalization. In this paper the ability of four attribute sets to form large, coherent precipitation zones is assessed in terms of the regional homogeneity of precipitation statistics and computational efficiency. The outcomes provide guidance for effective attribute selection for future studies in Canada. The attributes under consideration include location parameters (latitude, longitude), distance to major water bodies, site elevation and atmospheric variables modelled at different pressure levels. The analysis is conducted in two diverse climate regions within Canada including the Prairie and the Great Lakes–St Lawrence lowlands regions. The method consists of four main steps: (i) formation of the attribute sets; (ii) determination of the preferred number of regions (selection of thec-value) into which the sites are partitioned; (iii) regionalization of climate sites using the fuzzyc-means clustering algorithm; and (iv) validation of regional homogeneity usingL-moment statistics. The results of the attribute formation,c-value selection, regionalization and validation processes are presented and discussed in a comparative analysis. Based on the results it is recommended for both regions to use location parameters including latitude, longitude and distance to water bodies (in the Great Lakes region) to form precipitation regions and to consider atmospheric variables for future (climate change) applications of the regionalization procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the human dimensions of global climate change should consider the way at-risk populations confront uncertainty through cultural practices. This is a vital point for indigenous peoples around the world, but particularly for those in the Arctic region where the effects of climate change are most dramatic. The Iñupiat of Arctic Alaska are especially susceptible to climatic and associated environmental changes, because they rely on sea ice to hunt the bowhead whale. Employing a humanistic approach, this paper reveals Iñupiaq cultural resilience by exploring how collective uncertainty tied to the effects of climate change is manifested in Iñupiaq lives. These experiences show how the human dimensions of climate change, cultural resilience, and identity politics are integrated in the Arctic. By reinforcing their cultural relationship with the bowhead whale, these Iñupiat better cope with an unpredictable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how GCC is affecting the biological diversity of the Andes is of utmost importance and timeliness given the relevance of the region for biological conservation. Our research questions were (1) what is the spatial (country-level) and temporal distribution of the scientific research exploring links between GCC and biodiversity in the Andean region? (2) What are the methodological approximations, areas of research and subjects of study most commonly considered? And (3) What are the trends in biodiversity responses most commonly found under different GCC stressors? We found that the first paper on GCC and biodiversity in the Andes was published in 2001. Since then the annual rate of publications, as well as the variety of areas of research, has risen steeply. The 65 published articles we found are likely to represent 1% of the scientific literature dealing with tropical ecology. Of those, more than half of the studies were conducted in a single country, used mostly observation rather than modelling or experimental methodological approaches, and focused mainly on plants. Studies dealing with birds, mammals and reptiles were notoriously underrepresented. The high number of GCC stressors and the great variety of responses found in this synthesis makes it difficult to draw general conclusions. However, we found that observational, modelling and experimental studies report negative GCC impacts on the biological diversity of the region. Most generally, observation and modelling studies report contractions of the distribution ranges of Andean species, and negative effects on species population densities and individual performance. We conclude our review suggesting that networking, recovering historic field data and conducting large-scale ecosystem experimental studies are critical to improve our knowledge on the effects of GCC on Andean biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change is a current concern in our society, with consequences increasingly felt worldwide. Alongside territories and communities, large infrastructures such as dams may be vulnerable to climate change and need to be resilient to related impacts. Consequently, their approval should require a comprehensive assessment of associated climate change risks. This concern is addressed by several international guidelines that suggest incorporating the evaluation of climate change risks in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process to overcome it. It is also evidenced in several national EIA regulations updated accordingly. Based on a systematic review of scientific literature published in the last twenty years, this paper explores how has the scientific community addressed the integration of climate change risks in the EIA of dams. The findings show that the potential of EIA to address climate change risks is widely acknowledged. However, published systematic studies assessing how the analysis of these risks is being included in dams' EIA current practice, are rare. This gap suggests a research potential around the topic and a new niche for research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malthouse Theatre's The Suitcase Series celebrated ten years in 2020. As a participatory theatre making program for young people in Years 9 and 10 of secondary education, it holds a unique position in the Victorian and, arguably, the Australian theatre education landscape. Since 2010 Malthouse Theatre has commissioned an original script by a new playwright every two years, then challenging young people to give voice to their thoughts and feelings to the issue through the interrelated roles of creator-performer-audience-critical peer. This paper offers critical insight into the origin, intentions, process, and social and artistic impacts of the program across ten years. It positions the Malthouse as a key contributor to the field of participatory theatre programs in Australia, and considers how theatre can create 'something very forceful, something that we believe, then offer to students in a way that doesn't crush them' (Lynch, 2010). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We thank Arnbjerg-Nielsen and co-authors for their constructive contribution. We endorse their key comments and suggestions on how to increase awareness of and action on water quality interactions in the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Here, we advance the discussion, commenting on the scope of water quality to embrace ecosystem as well as human needs, and the importance of transdisciplinarity and focusing at the city/aquifer/drainage basin scale in WEF nexus hotspots in ensuring that water quality is considered in WEF nexus approaches. We also identify how recent global events, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP 26), may intensify the WEF nexus and its water quality interlinkages, highlighting the need to weave WEF considerations into addressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the climate and biodiversity emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts, with a particular focus on groundwater aspects from a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. Our results are similar to those from surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates the results for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we found uncertainties related to geological conceptualization and hydrological model discretization to be dominant for projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. How to reduce the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater is discussed, with an emphasis on the potential for reducing climate model biases through the use of fully coupled climate–hydrology models.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Following the June 2013 disaster in the Uttarakhand Himalayas, many discussions are ongoing with regard to how climate change is seeking revenge on mankind by endowing us with disasters! The event was mostly linked with the occurrence of an extreme event due to climate change. In view of this, an attempt has been made in this paper to analyse the extreme rainfall events experienced by the Uttarakhand during 1901-2013 using more than 100 stations' daily rainfall data. The study revealed that during the 113-year period, the highest numbers of extreme events were recorded during the decade 1961-1970, and to some extent in the decade 1981-1990. Thereafter, there is a decrease in extreme rainfall events. The comparative study of extreme events prior to 1901 showed that on 17-18 September 1880, a rainstorm which occurred in close vicinity to Uttarakhand caused serious floods and damage to lives and properties. The extreme rainfall recorded by some stations during this unprecedented rainstorm has not been surpassed to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the sensitivity of hydrological projections to the choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas on two natural sub-catchments, in Canada and Germany. Twenty-four equations, representing a large range of options, are applied for calibration over the whole observation time series and for future conditions. The modelling chain is composed of dynamically downscaled climatic projections and a 20-member (ensemble) hydrological model, along with a snow module. The roots of the sensitivity and its propagation within the hydrological chain are evaluated to show influences on climate change impact conclusions. Results show large differences between the 24 simulated potential evapotranspiration time series. However, these discrepancies only moderately affect the calibration efficiency of hydrological models as a result of adaptation of parameters. Choice of formula influences hydrological projections and climate change conclusions for both catchments in terms of simulated and projected values, and also in the magnitude of changes during important dynamic periods such as spring and autumn high flows and summer low flows. Spread of the hydrological response is lower for the combinational formulas than for temperature-based or radiation-based equations. All the results reveal the importance of testing a large spectrum of potential evapotranspiration formulas in a decision-making context, such as water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrastructure threatens to lock-in societies to fossil fuels unless something is done now. This is because infrastructure lasts for such a long time, meaning that any infrastructure built or rebuilt now will last well into the twenty-first century – until the end of the century, in some cases. Consequently, there is a need to integrate climate change into infrastructure now or societies will be left with infrastructure designed around unsustainable socio-technical systems (such as combustion engines, roads, and suburbanization). Such change is conceptualized in the literature as a sustainability transition. However, any attempts at such transitions have to address the ‘materialities’ of infrastructure systems (physical form, environmental context, and so on). In this paper, I develop the concept of ‘socio-material systems’ and apply it to transport infrastructure in Ontario, Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Forest fires are one of the most important factors in environmental risk assessment and it is the main cause of forest destruction in the Mediterranean region. Forestlands have a number of known benefits such as decreasing soil erosion, containing wild life habitats, etc. Additionally, forests are also important player in carbon cycle and decreasing the climate change impacts. This paper discusses forest fire probability mapping of a Mediterranean forestland using a multiple data assessment technique. An artificial neural network (ANN) method was used to map forest fire probability in Upper Seyhan Basin (USB) in Turkey. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) approach based on back propagation algorithm was applied in respect to physical, anthropogenic, climate and fire occurrence datasets. Result was validated using relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Coefficient of accuracy of the MLP was 0.83. Landscape features input to the model were assessed statistically to identify the most descriptive factors on forest fire probability mapping using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Landscape features like elevation (R= −0.43), tree cover (R= 0.93) and temperature (R= 0.42) were strongly correlated with forest fire probability in the USB region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013–2022 with the theme “Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society”. The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013–2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The estimation of drought at certain temporal and spatial scales is useful for research on climate change and global warming. Greece is often affected by droughts, which are widespread spatially and temporally due to the complex topography. Within the Greek territory, various complex microclimates are created, linked with the spatial variances in drought phenomena. In this paper an estimation of drought in the Sperchios River basin was conducted using the Aridity Index (AI). Additionally, a seasonal analysis of drought was performed. Meteorological data from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) were used as inputs for the AI equation. Spatial interpolation of AI for the Sperchios River basin was performed using a kriging method by the application of ArcGIS 9.3. In order to produce required input data, several models (EmPEst, RayMan) and techniques (linear regression, interpolation) were combined. Finally, the meteorological data series were randomly separated into two periods and AI was estimated for these sub-periods, in order to test the effectiveness of the drought index used. The results indicate that the conditions prevailing in the area are humid, mostly affected by increased rainfall occurring in the mountainous section of the basin. Broadly, the humid environment in the upstream of Sperchios River prevents drought occurring in the lowlands of Sperchios River valley. Nevertheless, some differentiation appeared during the summer period, to which special attention needs to be given in order to prevent drought conditions.Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]