Search

Global warming is a result of the increased emission of greenhouse gases. The consequences of this climate change threaten society, biodiversity, food and resource availability. The consequences include an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease and cardiovascular mortality. In this position paper, we summarize the data from the main studies that assess the risks of a temperature increase or heat waves in CV events (CV mortality, myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and CV hospitalizations), as well as the data concerning air pollution as an enhancer of temperature-related CV risks. The data currently support global warming/heat waves (extreme temperatures) as cardiovascular threats. Achieving neutrality in emissions to prevent global warming is essential and it is likely to have an effect in the global health, including the cardiovascular health. Simultaneously, urgent steps are required to adapt the society and individuals to this new climatic context that is potentially harmful for cardiovascular health. Multidisciplinary teams should plan and intervene healthcare related to temperature changes and heat waves and advocate for a change in environmental health policy., (Copyright © 2023 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Simple Summary: During overwintering diapause, the gynes of paper wasps (Polistes sp.) are mainly dormant in sheltered hibernacles, protecting them against predators and adverse weather conditions but hardly against low temperatures. By measuring the temperature inside hibernacles occupied by species from both Mediterranean (Italian; P. dominula, P. gallicus) and temperate (Austrian; P. dominula) climates (mean hibernacle temperatures: 8.5 °C and 3.2 °C, respectively), we were able to calculate the energetic demand of overwintering. The cumulative energetic costs differed between the populations. Costs were lowest for the P. dominula population from the cooler Austrian winter climate and significantly higher in P. dominula and P. gallicus from the warmer Italian climate. The lower costs of the temperate species were a result of the lower winter temperature and physiological acclimation processes. Energetic calculations with an assumed temperature increase of up to 3 °C due to climate change predict a dramatic increase of up to 40% in overwintering costs in all species. Gynes of paper wasps (Polistes sp.) spend the cold season in sheltered hibernacles. These hibernacles protect against predators and adverse weather conditions but offer only limited protection against low temperatures. During overwintering diapause, wasps live on the energy they store. We investigated the hibernacles' microclimate conditions of species from the Mediterranean (Italy, P. dominula, P. gallicus) and temperate (Austria, P. dominula) climates in order to describe the environmental conditions and calculate the energetic demand of overwintering according to standard metabolic rate functions. The temperatures at the hibernacles differed significantly between the Mediterranean and temperate habitats (average in Austria: 3.2 ± 5.71 °C, in Italy: 8.5 ± 5.29 °C). In both habitats, the hibernacle temperatures showed variance, but the mean hibernacle temperature corresponded closely to the meteorological climate data. Cumulative mass-specific energetic costs over the studied period were the lowest for the temperate P. dominula population compared with both Mediterranean species. The lower costs of the temperate species were a result of the lower hibernacle temperature and acclimation to lower environmental temperatures. Model calculations with an increased mean temperature of up to 3 °C due to climate change indicate a dramatic increase of up to 40% in additional costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing consumption is both necessary to end extreme poverty 1 and one of the main drivers of greenhouse gas emissions 2 , creating a potential tension between alleviating poverty and limiting global warming. Most poverty reduction has historically occurred because of economic growth 3-6 , which means that reducing poverty entails increasing not only the consumption of people living in poverty but also the consumption of people with a higher income. Here we estimate the emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty using the international poverty line of US $2.15 per day (ref.  7 ). Even with historical energy- and carbon-intensity patterns, the global emissions increase associated with alleviating extreme poverty is modest, at 2.37 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year or 4.9% of 2019 global emissions. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy can ease this tension further: assuming the best historical performance, the emissions for poverty alleviation in 2050 will be reduced by 90%. More ambitious poverty lines require more economic growth in more countries, which leads to notably higher emissions. The challenge to align the development and climate objectives of the world is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing sustainable middle-income standards of living., (© 2023. The World Bank.)

Climate change is one of humanity's most serious threats, putting at risk the functioning of the natural systems that sustain human health. (1,2) In the Anthropocene, human activities have significantly [...]

The potential of mitigation actions to limit global warming within 2 °C (ref.  1 ) might rely on the abundant supply of biomass for large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) that is assumed to scale up markedly in the future 2-5 . However, the detrimental effects of climate change on crop yields may reduce the capacity of BECCS and threaten food security 6-8 , thus creating an unrecognized positive feedback loop on global warming. We quantified the strength of this feedback by implementing the responses of crop yields to increases in growing-season temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration and intensity of nitrogen (N) fertilization in a compact Earth system model 9 . Exceeding a threshold of climate change would cause transformative changes in social-ecological systems by jeopardizing climate stability and threatening food security. If global mitigation alongside large-scale BECCS is delayed to 2060 when global warming exceeds about 2.5 °C, then the yields of agricultural residues for BECCS would be too low to meet the Paris goal of 2 °C by 2200. This risk of failure is amplified by the sustained demand for food, leading to an expansion of cropland or intensification of N fertilization to compensate for climate-induced yield losses. Our findings thereby reinforce the urgency of early mitigation, preferably by 2040, to avoid irreversible climate change and serious food crises unless other negative-emission technologies become available in the near future to compensate for the reduced capacity of BECCS., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Despite the severe impacts of climate change on human health, socioeconomic development and the natural environment, the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change has failed to reach its [...]

The diagnosis of dengue infection is still a critical factor determining success in the clinical management and treatment of patients. Here, the development of microfluidic paper-based analytical devices (μPADs) utilizing a sandwich immunoassay on wax patterned paper functionalized with anti-dengue NS1 monoclonal antibodies for point-of-care detection of dengue NS1 (DEN-NS1-PAD) is reported. Various assay conditions, including the length of the channel and diluent, were optimized, and the response detected by the naked eye and digitized images within 20–30 min. The DEN-NS1-PAD was successfully tested in the field for detecting dengue NS1 in buffer, cell culture media, and human serum. The limit of detection (LoD) of the DEN-NS1-PAD obtained with the naked eye, scanner, and a smartphone camera was 200, 46.7, and 74.8 ng mL−1, respectively. The repeatability, reproducibility, and stability of the DEN-NS1-PAD were also evaluated. High true specificity and sensitivity in the serum of pediatric patients were observed. These evaluation results confirm that the DEN-NS1-PAD can potentially be used in point-of-care dengue diagnostics, which can significantly impact on the spreading of mosquito-borne diseases, which are likely to become more prevalent with the effects of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aeration, as a process in pulp and paper wastewater treatment, uses the greatest share of the energy. Therefore, if the energy efficiency of the treatment has to be improved, the focus must be on aeration. A key finding from the trials conducted for this paper, with effluent from a paper and pulp mill, was that the oxygen transfer coefficient could be doubled and the chemical oxygen demand could be decreased by 25%, if the effluent was pre-treated with 30 mg/l of aluminium coagulant (equivalent to 9.4 tonnes per day of AVR to 20000 cubic metres of effluent). Decrease in oxygen requirement implies decreases in aeration energy use. Pulp and paper mill effluents are not as biodegradable as municipal sewage, and the improvement in oxygen transfer properties of the effluent will have a positive influence over a longer period of time in the biological treatment. If the sludge is digested anaerobically, pre-treatment will also result in doubling the potential for methane generation. A holistic analysis of modifications to processes entails a study of the economic and environmental consequences as well. While the economic aspect is beyond the scope of this paper, only the net global warming as an environmental impact category has been studied, by taking recourse to specific emission coefficients. Of the four dosages of ferric aluminium sulphate considered in this analysis, the net greenhouse gas emissions are the least – 426 kg carbon dioxide equivalent per day when the daily consumption is 9.4 tonnes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeorecords suggest that the climate system has tipping points, where small changes in forcing cause substantial and irreversible alteration to Earth system components called tipping elements. As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise as a result of fossil fuel burning, human activity could also trigger tipping, and the impacts would be difficult to adapt to. Previous studies report low global warming thresholds above pre-industrial conditions for key tipping elements such as ice-sheet melt. If so, high contemporary rates of warming imply that exceeding these thresholds is almost inevitable, which is widely assumed to mean that we are now committed to suffering these tipping events. Here we show that this assumption may be flawed, especially for slow-onset tipping elements (such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) in our rapidly changing climate. Recently developed theory indicates that a threshold may be temporarily exceeded without prompting a change of system state, if the overshoot time is short compared to the effective timescale of the tipping element. To demonstrate this, we consider transparently simple models of tipping elements with prescribed thresholds, driven by global warming trajectories that peak before returning to stabilize at a global warming level of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. These results highlight the importance of accounting for timescales when assessing risks associated with overshooting tipping point thresholds.

Human society is dependent on nature 1,2 , but whether our ecological foundations are at risk remains unknown in the absence of systematic monitoring of species' populations 3 . Knowledge of species fluctuations is particularly inadequate in the marine realm 4 . Here we assess the population trends of 1,057 common shallow reef species from multiple phyla at 1,636 sites around Australia over the past decade. Most populations decreased over this period, including many tropical fishes, temperate invertebrates (particularly echinoderms) and southwestern Australian macroalgae, whereas coral populations remained relatively stable. Population declines typically followed heatwave years, when local water temperatures were more than 0.5 °C above temperatures in 2008. Following heatwaves 5,6 , species abundances generally tended to decline near warm range edges, and increase near cool range edges. More than 30% of shallow invertebrate species in cool latitudes exhibited high extinction risk, with rapidly declining populations trapped by deep ocean barriers, preventing poleward retreat as temperatures rise. Greater conservation effort is needed to safeguard temperate marine ecosystems, which are disproportionately threatened and include species with deep evolutionary roots. Fundamental among such efforts, and broader societal needs to efficiently adapt to interacting anthropogenic and natural pressures, is greatly expanded monitoring of species' population trends 7,8 ., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

In many developing countries, aquaculture is key to ensuring food security for millions of people. It is thus important to measure the full implications of environmental changes on the sustainability of aquaculture. We conduct a double meta-analysis (460 articles) to explore how global warming and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) impact aquaculture. We calculate a Multi-Antibiotic Resistance index (MAR) of aquaculture-related bacteria (11,274 isolates) for 40 countries, of which mostly low- and middle-income countries present high AMR levels. Here we show that aquaculture MAR indices correlate with MAR indices from human clinical bacteria, temperature and countries' climate vulnerability. We also find that infected aquatic animals present higher mortalities at warmer temperatures. Countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest AMR risks, impacting human health beyond the aquaculture sector, highlighting the need for urgent action. Sustainable solutions to minimise antibiotic use and increase system resilience are therefore needed.

Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.

Understanding environmental determination of crop yield plays a critical role in agricultural. management in resource-limited areas. The climatic transition zone was a naturally ideal place to study. the relations between environmental factors and crop yield, due to its large annual variability of climatic factors and high speed of temperature increase under global warming. Our objectives were to identify the most critical environmental factor in determining spring wheat yield and analyze the convergence and divergence of water-yield relations for spring wheat in a typical climatic transition zone (semi-arid area). The study was conducted at two locations, Dingxi and Pengyang in Northwest China, with a long-term experiment (1987-2018) and two short-term irrigation experiments. Meanwhile, data of water use and spring wheat yield was collected from a series of previously published literature in the study area. The highest spring wheat yield was obtained under year pattern with higher soil water content at sowing (SWCS) and lower atmospheric dryness condition (ADC, the difference between reference evapotranspiration and precipitation during spring wheat growing season). SWCS was more important than precipitation during the growing season (PGS) in determining spring wheat yield in the study area. The relations between available water supply, water use, and spring wheat yield were convergence. However, SWCS had an impact on the relationship between yield and PGS and SWCS-yield relation was affected by ADC. We concluded that precipitation in 7 months before sowing was the dominant factor determining spring wheat yield in the climatic transition zone under global warming whereas the impact of high atmospheric evaporative demand resulted from the increasing temperature on crop yields and SWCS-yield relation must be taken into account for the analysis of environmental determination of spring wheat yield., (© 2021. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions 1,2 , capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPD t ), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPD t -increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The combination of anaerobic digestion and pyrolysis technologies could be a novel energy-biochar production system to maximize energy and nutrient recovery from pulp and paper mill sludge. Herein, the life-cycle energy production and emissions reduction of sludge treatment from a typical pulp and paper mill were investigated, in which alternative uses of biogas for industrial or household application, in different regions of the world, were assessed. The three scenarios considered for different end-uses of biogas are: (A) biogas for vehicle fuel in the transportation sector in Sweden, (B) biogas for heat and electricity in the power sector in Brazil, and (C) biogas for cooking in households in China. The results of Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment (E-LCA) show that for all these three scenarios, the use of biogas and pyrolysis gas contributes most to emissions mitigation, while the dewatering and drying processes carried out on the sludge, contribute the most to the environmental emissions. Addition of biochar to the soil, contributes significantly to a reduction in global warming by sequestering carbon in the soil. Compared to scenarios B and C, Scenario A, in which biogas substitutes gasoline in transportation, and heat from combusted pyrolysis gases is used for district heating in Sweden, demonstrates the highest environmental performance for all the evaluated impact categories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests make an approximately neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, with intact and recovering forests taking in as much carbon as is released through deforestation and degradation. In the near future, tropical forests are likely to become a carbon source, owing to continued forest loss and the effect of climate change on the ability of the remaining forests to capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. This will make it harder to limit global warming to below 2 °C. Encouragingly, recent international agreements commit to halting deforestation and degradation, but a lack of fundamental data for use in monitoring and model design makes policy action difficult.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times 1 . However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5 °C (refs. 2-7 ). Here we use a global energy systems model 8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2 °C carbon budget 9 , particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]