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Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.

Background: Future climate change is likely to alter cold spell-related disease burden. Few projection studies have considered the potential impact of the aging population with changing population size on cold spell-related disease burdens., Methods: We derived the association between cold spells and daily mortality for 272 main cities in mainland China. We combined these associations with modeled daily temperatures from three different climate models under two climate change scenarios and three population scenarios to project excess deaths related to cold spells. Furthermore, we used the factor separation method to calculate the independent contribution of future population size, age structure, and climate change on projected deaths attributable to cold spells., Findings: Compared to the baseline period, future excess deaths related to cold spells are expected to increase over most of the decades under RCP 2.6 (81.5% in 2050 s and 37% in 2090 s) and RCP 4.5 (55.5% in 2050 s and -19% in 2090 s). The factor analysis indicated that the rise of the aged population (≥65) substantially would amplify the excess deaths related to cold spells (increase by 101.1% in the 2050 s and 146.2% in the 2090 s). For the near future (2021-2040), population aging could fully offset the influence of decreased cold-spell days. In the middle of this century (2051-2070), the total excess deaths will exhibit significant variation across three scenarios. By the end of 21 century (2081-2100), the population shrinking would reduce the total excess deaths., Interpretation: Excess deaths related to cold spells may still increase in a warming climate and future demographic shifts would produce considerable influences in this increase for different periods., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: We have limited knowledge on the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on dengue incidence in China and its associated disease burden in a future with a changed climate. This study projects the excess risk of dengue caused by climate change-induced hydrometeorological conditions across mainland China., Methods: In this modelling study, the historical association between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and dengue was estimated with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model from 70 cities. The association combined with the dengue-transmission biological model was used to project the annual excess risk of dengue related to PDSI by 2100 across mainland China, under three representative concentration pathways ([RCP] 2·6, RCP 4·5, and RCP 8·5)., Findings: 93 101 dengue cases were reported between 2013 and 2019 in mainland China. Dry and wet conditions within 3 months lag were associated with increased risk of dengue. Locations with potential dengue risk in China will expand in the future. The hydrometeorological changes are projected to substantially affect the risk of dengue in regions with mid-to-low latitudes, especially the coastal areas under high emission scenarios. By 2100, the annual average increased excess risk is expected to range from 12·56% (95% empirical CI 9·54-22·24) in northwest China to 173·62% (153·15-254·82) in south China under the highest emission scenario., Interpretation: Hydrometeorological conditions are predicted to increase the risk of dengue in the future in the south, east, and central areas of mainland China in disproportionate patterns. Our findings have implications for the preparation of public health interventions to minimise the health hazards of non-optimal hydrometeorological conditions in a context of climate change., Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.

How various peoples crossed geographical barriers, were affected by climate change and human-made technologies comprise some of the most interesting quandaries in the history of cultures. This paper considers the Hu line, which is a major boundary between population centres and different environments in China. The boundary became evident approximately 11,400 years ago; however, evidence suggests that people crossed through at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal a BP, facilitating the increases of the trans-Eurasian exchange. The timings of the crossings correspond to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon that triggers seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. This analysis demonstrates that climate change on a millennial-to-centennial scale can have a profound influence on population distribution with long-term consequences., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Understanding crop yield and water requirements in response to the future climate at the local scale is essential to develop more precise and appropriate adaptation strategies. From this perspective, repeated drought and flood events in the lower north of Thailand were investigated. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the impact of climate change on major crop yields and the water footprint (WF). Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2015-2039), mid (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2100) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the major crop yields and WF changes in the future. The precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were projected to increase in all periods under both scenarios. Rice yields in irrigated areas were predicted to rise gradually over the three projection periods under SSP245 but decline in mid and far-future periods under SSP585. There was a predicted reduction of first and second rice crop yields by -6.0% to -17.7% under SSP585. Fortunately, those rice yields were expected to increase in the near-future period under SSP245 by 3.0% to 4.3%. Growing maize, soybean, or mung bean instead of a second rice crop will have a less negative impact on future climate change. Changing from growing rice to be planting maize twice per year and growing cassava had increased favorability in rain-fed areas. The WF changes in the future were associated with future crop yield changes; therefore, the decrease in WFs was due to an increase in crop yield and vice-versa. The total WFs of maize, soybean, mung bean, and cassava production were roughly half that of rice production, indicating that these crops are suitable alternatives in the dry season., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AM, PL, and IH were supported by the Wellcome Trust during this report. All other authors declare no conflicts of interests.

Large-scale farming (participation in large-scale agricultural extension program) and individual farming (no participation) are two farming management practices of rice cultivation in Thailand, both of which cause significant water consumption and degradation and are vulnerable to climate change. However, given that climate change will influence both grain yield and water resource availability, it is not fully understood which type of farming management practice is more adaptive to climate change. This study aims to evaluate the adaptation capabilities of large-scale and individual farming by simulating rice yield changes under future climatic conditions and estimating the climate change impact on the water footprint (WF) of rice production. Rice management practices were obtained from large-scale and individual farming. Five General Circulation Models of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios under four future time periods were used as future climate projections. Simulation results show a remarkable increase in rice yield of individual and large-scale farming under RCP4.5, ranging from 1.3 to 29.8% and 2.0 to 30.8%, respectively, whereas it fluctuates from 11.7 to -29.0% and 8.3 to -20.8% under RCP8.5 for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. The projected total WF of rice production under RCP4.5 will decline, ranging from -10.0 to -43.0% and -0.5 to -67.0% for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. Conversely, the RCP8.5 shows a fluctuation in projected total WF of -26.5 to 63.3% and -51.1 to 60.0% for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. The total WF, mainly grey WF, in large-scale farming is lower than in individual farming. The increase of rice yield under RCP4.5 is due to an increment of temperature and precipitation, resulting in a decrease of the total WF and vice versa for RCP8.5. The large-scale farms are highlighted as adopting appropriate management practices for rice production in which they can maintain rice yield and reduce grey WF., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Prehistoric human activities were likely influenced by cyclic monsoon climate changes in East Asia. Here we report a decadal-resolution Holocene pollen record from an annually-laminated Maar Lake in Northeast China, a proxy of monsoon climate, together with a compilation of 627 radiocarbon dates from archeological sites in Northeast China which is a proxy of human activity. The results reveal synchronous ~500-year quasi-periodic changes over the last 8000 years. The warm-humid/cold-dry phases of monsoon cycles correspond closely to the intensification/weakening of human activity and the flourishing/decline of prehistoric cultures. Six prosperous phases of prehistoric cultures, with one exception, correspond approximately to warm-humid phases caused by a strengthened monsoon. This ~500-year cyclicity in the monsoon and thus environmental change triggered the development of prehistoric cultures in Northeast China. The cyclicity is apparently linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, against the background of long-term Holocene climatic evolution. These findings reveal a pronounced relationship between prehistoric human activity and cyclical climate change.

Background: Except for comparing the implementation costs of the Paris Agreement with potential health benefits at the national levels, previous studies have not explored the health impacts of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by countries and in regional details. In this Lancet Countdown study, we aimed to estimate and monetise the health benefits of China's NDCs in the electric power generation sector, and then compare them with the implementation costs, both at the national and regional levels., Methods: In this modelling study, we linked the Multi-regional model for Energy Supply system and their Environmental ImpaCts, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China model, the offline-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and the Integrated Health Impact Assessment model with a time scope from 2010 to 2050. We calculated the PM 2·5 concentrations and compared the health impacts and implementation costs between two scenarios that reflect CO 2 and air pollutant emissions-the reference (REF) scenario (no climate policy) and the NDC scenario (100% realisation of NDC targets: CO 2 emission intensity needs to be about 40% below 2010 emissions by 2030 [roughly 35% below 2030 emissions in REF], and about 90% below 2010 emissions by 2050 [roughly 96% below 2050 emissions in REF])., Findings: Under a comparatively optimistic health benefits valuation condition, at the national level, 18-62% of implementation costs could be covered by the health benefits in 2030. In 2050, the overall health benefits would substantially increase to 3-9 times of the implementation costs. However, northwest China would require the highest implementation costs and will also have more premature deaths because of a more carbon-intensive energy structure than business as usual. By 2030, people in northwest China (especially in Gansu, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang provinces) would need to bear worse air quality, and 10 083 (95% CI 3419-16 138) more premature deaths annually. This undesirable situation would diminish by about 2050. A solution that assumes no growth in air pollutant emissions in 2030 at the regional level is technically feasible, but would not be cost-effective., Interpretation: Our results suggest that cost-benefit analysis of climate policy that omits regional air pollution could greatly underestimate benefits. A compensation mechanism for inter-regional interests (including financial, technological, and knowledge support) should be established for regions that give up their human health benefits for the sake of the whole nation to realise the climate change targets., Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China and Cyrus Tang Foundation., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

BackgroundModeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.ObjectiveThe objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.MethodsAn expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.ResultsThe panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.DiscussionThis checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.

Distributed photovoltaic (DPV) is a promising solution to climate change. However, the widespread adoption of DPV faces challenges, such as high upfront costs, regulatory barriers, and market uncertainty. Addressing these barriers requires coordinating the interests of stakeholders in the promotion of DPV. Therefore, this paper constructs a three-party evolutionary game model in a social network with the government, investment companies and residents as the main subjects and examines the influence of different subjects' behavioral strategies on the promotion of DPV under the social learning mechanism. The results show that: (1) In the game equilibrium, both the government and residents hold a positive attitude towards the promotion of DPV; (2) Companies will obtain most of the subsidies through market power and information differences, resulting in the increase of government subsidies that do not always benefit residents; (3) The increase of energy consumption and pollution prevention costs can promote companies' investment in DPV; (4) The increase of environmental protection taxes to a certain extent helps companies to take responsibility for promoting DPV, reducing the pressure on the government to promote it and increasing residents' income. This study provides insights into the sustainable development of DPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how groundwater storage (GWS) responds to climate change is essential for water resources management and future water availability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, the dominant factor controlling long‐term GWS changes remains unclear and its responses to climate change are not well understood. Here we combined multi‐source datasets including in‐situ measurements, satellite observations, global models, and reanalysis products to reveal that GWS increased at 5.59 ± 1.44 Gt/yr during 2003–2016 while showing spatial heterogeneities with increasing trends in northern TP and glacial regions and declining trends in central and southern TP. The accelerated transformation from solid water (glaciers, snow, and permafrost; −17.72 ± 1.53 Gt/yr) into liquid water provide more recharge to groundwater, dominating the total GWS increase. This study contributes to a better understanding of the hydrological cycle under climate change and provides key information for projecting water availability under different future scenarios in the TP. Plain Language Summary: Long‐term groundwater storage (GWS; the amount of water stored in the pores, fissures, and caves of soil and rocks within the underground saturated zone) changes in response to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and its dominant controlling factor has not been fully understood. There are very limited observation wells in the TP to monitor the groundwater level changes. This study used satellite observations, modeling, and reanalysis data to investigate GWS changes in the TP during 2003–2016. Results show that the GWS increased by 5.59 ± 1.44 Gt/yr during this period. The accelerated climate warming on the TP has led to significant solid water melt, including glacier melt, snow melt, and permafrost thaw. The solid water storage showed a decreasing trend (−17.72 ± 1.53 Gt/yr) and provided more water to infiltrate to recharge groundwater. The solid water melt has been identified to be the dominant source of GWS increase in the TP. The results of this study will help us to better understand the changes in the water cycle on the TP caused by climate change. Key Points: Multiple satellite observations, modeling, and reanalysis data were used to reveal groundwater storage changes in the Tibetan PlateauGroundwater storage increased (5.59 ± 1.44 Gt/yr) in the entire Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2016Declining solid water (−17.72 ± 1.53 Gt/yr) including glaciers, snow, and permafrost dominates increasing groundwater storage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The compilation of technology lists of addressing climate change has guiding effect on promoting technological research and development, demonstration and popularization. It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecological civilization construction, achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutral target, and enhance global climate governance capabilities. This study first proposes the existing classification outline of the technology promotion lists, technology demand lists and future technology lists. Then, different methodologies are integrated on the basis of the existing outline of four technology lists: China's existing technological promotion list for addressing climate change, China's demand list for climate change mitigation technology, China's key technology list for addressing climate change, and China's future technology list for addressing climate change. What's more, core technologies are analyzed in the aspects of technology maturity, carbon reduction cost, carbon reduction potential, economic benefits, social influence, uncertainty, etc. The results show that: key industries and sectors in China already have relatively mature mitigation/adaptation technologies to support the achievement of climate change targets. The multi-sectoral system of promoting climate-friendly technologies has been established, which has played an active role in tackling climate change. Currently, climate technology needs are concentrated in the traditional technology and equipment upgrading, renewable energy technology and management decision-making support technology. The key technologies are concentrated in 3 major areas and 12 technological directions that urgently need a breakthrough. For carbon emmission peak and carbon nentrality, carbon depth reduction/zero carbon emissions and geoengineering technology ( CDR and SRM) have played an important role in forming the structure of global emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in the future. Thus, the uncertainty assessment for the comprehensive technology cost-effectiveness, technology integration direction, technical maturity, ethics and ecological impacts is supportive to the national technology strategy. Finally, the presented study proposes several policy suggestions for medium-and long-term technology deployment, improving technology conversion rate, promoting the research and development of key core technologies, and forming a technology list collaborative update and release mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research and development (R&D) of climate change technology lists (or climate technology lists) is a foundation of the national climate governance system. By identifying and analyzing the technology demands, stocks and strategic direction of climate technology, technology lists can provide information guidance for technological research, development, promotion, transfer and investment. Based on status of technology ownership in this field and research objectives of list development, this study proposed three categories of technology lists: technology demand lists, existing technology lists and future technology lists. An analysis framework was established to compare different methodologies of developing technology lists, based on their information sources, classifications, identifying and sorting methods and ways of presenting. By applying the proposed framework, 10 representative methodologies for technology lists were systematically compared. The homogeneity and heterogeneity of the three categories of technology lists were identified, and an optimization framework of the methodologies was proposed. The results showed that: (1) Various types of climate technology lists have been completed in China, laying good foundations for continued domestic R&D, promotion and international cooperation on climate change technologies. (2) In terms of resource investment, rigor of technology selection process, energy conservation and emission reduction potential, synergistic effect and other indicators, there are similarities in the methodologies for the development of the three climate technology lists. The differences are mainly reflected in the sources of technological information, the selection of technological evaluation indicators and ways of presenting. (3) China's climate technology list research is still relatively defective; systematic and consistent assessment paradigms and the development of technology lists in some key areas are still lacking; and dynamic updating of technology lists is insufficient. On the basis of these findings, this article suggests that China should optimize the technology list development system and enhance the R&D of future technology lists which address carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality targets, key technology lists and international cooperation technology lists based on the third-party technology demand assessment. In addition, promoting the marketization of technology list R&D and application should also be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What decision‐makers in countries want to know from science is more than just an understanding of what is a good and environmentally aware society, or the human dimensions of global change. They also want to know how to achieve comparable levels of human wellbeing keeping within global ecological limits. In the absence of agreed criteria on who has to do what, global cooperation as well as national action now needs new insights for potential policy choices and these could come from Special Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC, as an intergovernmental body, has the scientific expertise and legitimacy for enabling and supporting a political consensus at both the global and national levels that will be widely acceptable to national legislators, city managers, business and society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate risk severely affects natural ecosystems, and human social systems, especially the economy. Total factor productivity (TFP) has been considered a key factor in explaining long-term economic development. Using the global Climate Risk Index (CRI), we innovatively examine the relationship between climate risk and TFP as moderated by political and economic institutions. We find a negative impact of climate risk on TFP and a regional heterogeneity among countries with different levels of affluence, land area, and population size. The sensitivity of climate risk in poor areas decreases with an increase in affluence, and countries with larger land area and population size are less sensitive to climate risk. In addition, good political and economic institutions can mitigate the negative effects of climate risk, but these moderating effects are not significant in large countries. Finally, we make relevant recommendations for responding to climate risk and improving total factor productivity. • Institution quality is measured in two dimensions: economic and political. • The relation between climate risk and TFP as moderated by institutional quality is investigated. • Heterogeneity in the impact of climate risk on TFP across countries is explored. • Further discussion on the link between CRI and green total factor productivity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation at farm level is an effective measure to cope with global climate change. The study aims to clarify farmers' intentions and decisions regarding global climate change adaptation. Logistic regression models were used to examine the influences of socioeconomic factors and climate adaptation communication processes on farmers' decision to apply adaptation strategies against drought and flood. Specifically, for a thorough understanding of non-adapting farmers, the theory of planned behavior was incorporated, to assess these farmers' intention to adaptation. Results showed that farmers' perceptions were consistent with the weather data over a short period, reporting a rise in temperature and a greater decrease in precipitation. Agricultural experience, farm income, training, social capital, and effective climate adaptation communication were statistically significant in increasing the probability of farmers' adaptation. For farmers who do not perceive climate change but adapted nonetheless, social capital played a major factor, driving their belief in, and behavior to adaptation, of which the most important aspects were neighbors and peer groups. Farmers' intention to adapt was mostly affected by perceived behavioral control factors, followed by attitude and subjective norms. Therefore, successful policies to enhance farmers' perceptions and adaptive capacity can encourage both actual and intended adaptation farmers. Adaptation strategies require the participation of multiple players from all related sectors engaging with local communities and farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation of the energy sector’s power generation mix is needed to contain global mean temperature rise to no more than 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. Because the power sector is also a dominant direct and indirect consumer of water, it is vital to understand current and likely future trends in power sector water consumption. In this paper, we use an input-output based hybrid approach to study the direct and indirect impacts on water consumption from power mix adjustment in the world’s seven largest emitting economies under multiple cost-effective mitigation pathways toward the 2 °C target. Although different pathways exist, we discovered generally increases in water consumption of power sector under the long-term 2 °C target compared with no-climate-policy pathways, especially for China and India. Fulfilling the Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) could decouple direct water consumption and electricity output for most regions but may result in increases of indirect water consumption in China. This paper suggests that in the light of geographically uneven water scarcity, more comprehensive evaluation of both the direct and indirect water demands of the power sector is demanded when considering climate policies relevant to significant structural and technological adjustments in power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using phytolith analysis from a well-dated and high-resolution sediment sequence in the apex of northern Yangtze Delta, we investigate environmental changes, the rise and decline of rice exploitation and possible impacts of environment on rice exploitation during the early mid-Holocene. The phytolith sequence documents a relatively warm and dry interval during ca.9000 to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by climatic amelioration before 7200 cal yr BP. Phytolith evidence indicates that rice exploitation at the apex of northern Yangtze Delta began at 8200 cal yr BP, flourished by 7700 cal yr BP and ceased after 7400 cal yr BP. The first emergence of marine diatom species approximately 7300 cal yr BP likely indicates an accelerated sea-level rise. The apparent correlation of the initiation of rice exploitation with climatic amelioration during the early mid-Holocene suggests that climatic changes may have played an important role in facilitating rice exploitation. Both the ideal climatic conditions and stable sea level enabled flourishing rice exploitation during 8200 to 7400 cal yr BP. Although the climate remained warm and wet after 7400 cal yr BP, local sea-level rise possibly led to the termination of earlier rice exploitation at this site of the northern Yangtze Delta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although China has experienced a wide variety of regional conflicts between water scarcity and electricity generation, there are few comprehensive quantifications that explicitly reveal the location and severity of these conflicts. Triggered by the soaring need for such information, we performed a high-resolution evaluation and projection of the spatial vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation to water scarcity problems. The study provides a comprehensive assessment by incorporating thermoelectric plants’ reliance on water, local water supply stress and future impacts brought about by planning and climate change into the analysis simultaneously. To measure the vulnerability of thermoelectric plants to water scarcity, a vulnerability index was constructed and multi-disciplinary approaches were integrated to quantify this index. Seven hotpots in North China were highlighted as power-vulnerable to water scarcity currently. In order to fulfill the power generation target in the future, less-vulnerable watersheds identified by this study are suggested to become the sites of future power plants. Besides, lowering the water withdrawal intensity of power plants alone is not enough to solve the vulnerability concerns. Instead, it is necessary to implement other water management, including water rights allocation in the trans-boundary river basins. This paper also highlights regions where climate change will threaten power generation by decreasing the water availability. These insights are valuable for adding the alleviation of water and electricity conflicts to climate change adaptation agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] This study assesses the value of a timely outcome of the long-term climate policy agenda. [•] A multi-period multi-region optimization model for China’s power sector is developed. [•] Clear policy signals of long-term climate agenda mitigate the impacts of a carbon lock-in and reduce mitigation costs. [•] Air pollution control targets help reduce the extra cost of a delayed mitigation agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale development of bioenergy is indispensable in dealing with the climate change challenge. The biomass resource may become a limiting factor for the utilization of bioenergy in mitigating carbon emissions in the future. For supporting formulating a feasible long-term strategy for bioenergy development, it is crucial to conduct an ex-ante estimation of the biomass resource potential and accurately capture its variability at fine resolution. Although many previous studies have been carried out to estimate biomass resource potential, there is still a lack of a systematic assessment of the long-term spatio-temporal distribution of resource potential of multiple domestic biomasses in the context of future changes of human and natural factors. To address this research gap, this study proposed a comprehensive framework coupled with the crop growth models, RS-GIS methods, statistical downscaling, and multi-source dataset to evaluate the biomass resource potential and its variability across China at 1-km resolution from 2020 to 2100. This study identified the suitable areas for bioenergy development in the future, and analyzed the impact of climate change and land use change on biomass resource potential. This study also explored the role of bioenergy potential playing in China's energy supply under the temperature rise control target. Results indicate that the bioenergy potential of residues and energy crops in China will reach 5.11–11.01 EJ in China in 2100, only accounting for 5.3%-12.2% of the national primary energy supply demand in 2100. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new integrated assessment model (IAM) named EMRICES-2020 was constructed to realize the close connection of the complicated climate change information in ESMs and the social economic growth model. • The coupling technology of the damage function in the climate feedback module for China was then reconstructed and improved by adding the economic impact mechanism of precipitation and extreme climate events. • The improved mode damage function was embedded into the production function of a multi-sector dynamic CGE economic model. • The new damage function has better simulated the sudden economic impact of extreme climate events and the volatility of climatic losses, compared with the Nordhaus damage function. • The long-term forecasting of climatic economic losses under the RCP carbon emission scenarios were simulated and calculated, especially the climatic economic losses of the extreme climate events on the economic activities of industrial sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been widely used to assess the effect of climatic policy. They are used to combine economic activity with simple climatic systems. Coupling earth system models (ESMs) to a socioeconomic framework for scientific research on climate change impacts is a challenging task. The coupling mechanism for complicated climate information in ESMs and economic activities, particularly the effects of extreme climate events on economic activities of industrial sectors, needs to be further explored. Therefore, we constructed a new IAM named EMRICES-2021 and improved the key coupling technology of damage function by adding an economic impact mechanism of precipitation, and extreme climate events. Considering the dynamic persistence features of climatic impacts on industrial sectors, we embedded the new damage function into the Cobb-Douglas production function of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and simulated future climatic losses on industrial economic system. Results show that the new damage function could better simulate the sudden economic impacts of extreme climate events and volatilities of climatic losses than Nordhaus mode. The cumulative indirect losses caused by extreme weather far exceeded direct losses in RCP scenarios. Climatic economic losses on real estate, finance, wholesale and retail trade increased fastest. Figure 10. Climatic losses to the economic system in various RCP scenarios [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to increase occupational heat stress, which will lead to diminished work performance and labor losses worldwide. However, sub-regional analyses remain insufficient, especially for countries with a heterogeneous spatial distribution of working populations, industries and climates. Here, we projected heat-induced labor losses in China, by considering local climate simulations, working population characteristics and developing an exposure–response function suitable for Chinese workers. We showed that the annual heat-induced work hours lost (WHL), compared to the baseline of 21.3 billion hours, will increase by 121.1% (111.2%–131.1%), 10.8% (8.3%–15.3%), and −17.8% (−15.3%–−20.3%) by the end of the century under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. We observed an approximately linear upward trend of WHL under RCP8.5, despite the decrease in future working population. Notably, WHL will be most prominent in the southern, eastern and central regions, with Guangdong and Henan accounting for a quarter of national total losses; this is largely due to their higher temperature exposure, larger population size, and higher shares of vulnerable population in total employment. In addition, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would yield substantial gains. Compared to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, all provinces can avoid an average of 11.8%, 33.7%, and 53.9% of annual WHL if the 1.5 °C target is achieved, which is equivalent to avoiding 0.1%, 0.6%, and 1.4% of annual GDP losses in China, respectively. This study revealed climate change will exacerbate future labor losses, and adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting stringent mitigation policies coupled with effective adaptation measures. Policymakers in each province should tailor occupation health protection measures to their circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Yield per hectare of sweet sorghum are influence by temperature and precipitation. • Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are suitable for planting sweet sorghum. • The 2020 and 2050 biofuel goal can be satisfied by certain scenarios in this paper. • Climate change and land-use change are critical to energy crop development plan. Abstract Biofuel from energy crops will play an important role in supplying carbon-neutral fuel for the transport sector. However, there are large uncertainties regarding energy crop development and the energy crop potential and distribution need to be evaluated more comprehensively and systematically. In this study, we propose an integrated approach using the AquaCrop model, a geographic information system approach, and a scenario analysis and we conduct a land availability assessment with multiple factors including climate change, land use, soil, topography, regional crop management, and technological improvement to shed light on the potential production, distribution, and temporal-spatial variation of land suitable for sweet sorghum production in China. We evaluate a full range of spatial scales from 1-km resolution to a national assessment in four representative concentration pathways from 2010 to 2100. The results show that most provinces can plant sweet sorghum. The most suitable provinces for sweet sorghum production are Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The biofuel potential of sweet sorghum in high-slope farmland (0.30–0.73 EJ) and marginal land (11.98–15.18 EJ) can satisfy the biofuel goal in 2020 (0.12 EJ) and 2050 (6.70–8.60 EJ). Climate change and land-use change are critical factors influencing for the current implementation and long-term planning of energy crops in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, continuous observation data for atmospheric nitrous oxide (N 2 O) concentrations are still lacking, especially in east Antarctica. In this paper, nitrous oxide background concentrations were measured at Zhongshan Station (69°22′25″S, 76°22′14″E), east Antarctica during the period of 2008–2012, and their interannual and seasonal characteristics were analyzed and discussed. The mean N 2 O concentration was 321.9 nL/L with the range of 320.5–324.8 nL/L during the five years, and it has been increasing at a rate of 0.29% year − 1 . Atmospheric N 2 O concentrations showed a strong seasonal fluctuation during these five years. The concentrations appeared to follow a downtrend from spring to autumn, and then increased in winter. Generally the highest concentrations occurred in spring. This trend was very similar to that observed at other global observation sites. The overall N 2 O concentration at the selected global sites showed an increasing annual trend, and the mean N 2 O concentration in the Northern Hemisphere was slightly higher than that in the Southern Hemisphere. Our result could be representative of atmospheric N 2 O background levels at the global scale. This study provided valuable data for atmospheric N 2 O concentrations in east Antarctica, which is important to study on the relationships between N 2 O emissions and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organic rice farming is a sustainable rice cultivation system that eliminates chemical inputs and has the potential to reduce environmental impacts. This study aims to: 1) evaluate and compare the carbon footprint intensity and the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services (VCSES) between organic rice farming (OF) and conventional rice farming (CF) and 2) estimate the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC), rice yield, and VCSES of two farming types in Phichit province, Thailand. The results showed that the carbon footprint intensity in OF and CF were significantly different with −0.13 and 0.82 kg CO 2 eq kg−1 rice yield, respectively. The differences in SOC stocks (ΔSOCS) were more significant in OF with the increase of 1107.6 kg C ha−1 year−1 (4061.2 kg CO 2 eq ha−1 year−1), while the ΔSOCS value in CF was 625 kg C ha−1 year−1 (2291.7 kg CO 2 eq ha−1 year−1). The VCSES in OF (541,196 US$ ha−1 year−1) was nearly two times higher than in CF (305,388 US$ ha−1 year−1). Under future climate change, rice yields of both farming types are expected to increase under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0, and it will decline under RCP8.5. The SOC and VCSES values are predicted to increase, except under RCP8.5. The dramatic declines can be found from the near future (2020–2039) to the very far future (2080–2099) period. Our finding indicates that even though climate change will have negative effects on SOC and VCSES, the OF will have less impact compared with CF. [Display omitted] • The carbon intensity in OF and CF were –0.13 and 0.82 kg CO 2 eq kg-1 rice yield, respectively. • Carbon footprint was mitigated through SOC stock. • The OF can return the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services higher than CF. • Under future climate change, the OF will have less impact compared with CF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-centennial–scale climate changes in the Asian monsoonal region significantly affect nearly half of the global population and they have also influenced the evolution of civilizations. However, the relationship between cyclic climate change and civilization remains unclear. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution pollen record from the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP), which reveals ~500-yr and ~ 210-yr cyclic variations in vegetation and precipitation during the last ~3600 years. The results show that ~500-yr and ~ 210-yr rainfall cycles were triggered by changes in the intensity of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the Westerlies, respectively. In addition, these two periodicities were almost in-phase with centennial-scale periodic changes in the low-latitude El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as well as with the high-latitude North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore, the flourishing/demise of the Tubo Dynasty in China corresponds closely with the superimposed wet/dry phases of the ~500-yr and ~ 210-yr cyclic climate changes, suggesting a direct relationship between regional cultural evolution and multi-centennial–scale climatic cyclicity. • ~ 500-yr and ~ 210-yr cyclic variations recorded in vegetation and precipitation from Angrenjin Co in the STP. • The two periodic rainfall oscillations were caused by the changes in ISM and Westerlies intensity, respectively. • The multi-centennial scales climate cycles superposed droughts likely play a key role in the demise of the Tubo Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is one of the main economic sectors, which is impacted by climate change on a global scale. Yet, whether and to what extent climate change influences tourism in island countries with tropical weather has not been fully understood. Here, we seek to fill this gap by evaluating the role of climate variables and climate-related extreme events on the number of international tourists in Indonesia empirically. A panel dataset of 5 provinces in Indonesia, which accounted for more than 80 percent of international tourists traveling to Indonesia between 2008 and 2018, was used to perform a feasible generalized least square (FGLS) regression. Consistent with previous findings, the empirical results show that both temperature and relative humidity particularly explain the variations in the number of international tourists in Indonesia. Every 1% increment of temperature and relative humidity is associated with a decrease in the number of international tourists in Indonesia by 1.37% and 0.59%, respectively. This study also suggests that the effect of climate change and climate-related extreme events is not homogeneous among tourists from different regions. These findings develop novel insights for climate change adaptation for policymakers and the tourism industry in Indonesia as well as in other warm destinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]