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Does a warming world, where extremely hot summers are becoming more common, mean that cold summers will never again occur? It is crucial to know whether extremely cold summers are still possible, as such knowledge will significantly impact decisions regarding the further adaptation of crops to cold summers. Japan, which has suffered from many extremely cold summers, has managed past agricultural disruptions with emergency rice imports. In this paper, we show that a climate regime shift associated with the positive phase shift of the summer Arctic Oscillation occurred in 2010 in northeast Eurasia, making the occurrence of extremely cold summers highly unlikely as long as this new regime persists. In fact, Japan has not experienced a cold summer since 2010, while extremely hot summers have been frequent. Since 2010, a double-jet structure with subtropical and polar jets has strengthened, and the polar jet has meandered farther north of Japan, resulting in an upper-tropospheric anticyclone. This anticyclone, which extends downward and tilts southward, reaches southern Japan and prevents cold advection of oceanic air over the cold Oyashio. The Okhotsk high, known as the leading cause of cold summers, has occurred frequently in recent years; however, cold summers have not occurred due to the tilting anticyclone. The recent warming of the Oyashio weakens cold advection. The Pacific–Japan pattern, known as a remote tropical influence, has been weakened. A better understanding of the regime shift will help us understand the tilting anticyclone and the associated extreme summers in northeast Eurasia. Significance Statement: Extremely cold summers are among the most destructive natural disasters, both socioeconomically and agriculturally. Historically, food shortages due to cold summers have triggered wars. This paper proposes that a hemispheric-scale climate regime shift occurred in or around 2010. This regime shift has included warmings in the North Pacific and East Eurasian land surface temperatures. The regime shift is accompanied by the positive shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a jet meander, and an upper-tropospheric anticyclone, making eastern Eurasia extremely hot. Our results imply that extremely cold summers are unlikely to occur in eastern Eurasia so long as this regime persists. Moving forward, it is important that the link between this regime shift and global warming be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has forced the world into a state of emergency, but the urgency can also become an opportunity to strengthen the focus on sustainable development and reduce social vulnerability. For developing economies, the first and foremost challenge regarding climate change is to address the knowledge gap on sustainable development and vulnerability. Besides this, evidence-based inputs are needed for the policies and programs that intend to enhance the adaptive capacity and social capital from the gender perspective in comparatively more disaster-prone districts of the country. The environmental impact in terms of socioeconomic conditions specifically pertaining to rural areas of Pakistan cannot be ignored. Natural events such as floods and droughts have raised the question of the social and socioeconomic vulnerability of the rural communities. This paper is an attempt toward understanding that everyone who is affected will be impacted differently by climate change both within the same gender and between different genders, including gender minorities. In addition, an attempt is made to identify the drivers of gender-disaggregated social vulnerability in selected disaster-prone rural communities of the district of Dadu, Sindh Province, Pakistan. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques are employed to examine the differences in gender perception on climate change, experiences related to climate change, disasters, and impacts on their lives. Women and households headed by them are found to be relatively more vulnerable due to their socioeconomic and social status in the rural areas of Pakistan. The paper gives policy directives that not only address the measures for reduction in climate change impacts but also suggest the development of effective disaster management programs, policies, and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonization of economies is seen as a high priority for many countries to reduce the impact of climate change. As such, policy makers need robust and reliable decoupling indicators to assess decarbonization progress. This paper utilizes a regression-based approach to estimate decoupling indicators and identify decoupling states in the transport sector. The proposed method is easy to use, data driven, providing robust and reliable estimates of decoupling elasticities and fits within existing policy frameworks. Analyzing the transport sector for 59 countries from across the world beginning 1970, only 16 are weakly decoupling. Most of these have been identified as being part of a group with sustained economy-wide CO2 reductions. Stronger and localized green transport policy action is needed to meet emissions targets for most countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The substantial known economic effect of changing in climate is upon on every sector especially on agriculture due to its sensitivity and size of the sector. Warming climate brings outstanding harm to agriculture in several nations because developed countries in low latitude already encounter the hot weather. This paper reviews numerous studies that evaluate the possible impact of warming climate to agriculture sector in Asia. There have been numerous studies examine how expected changes in climate are likely to effect on yield productivity in Asia. The findings in this paper is supported mainly from the fourth and fifth analysis report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), where the latest sixth assessment report is excluded out as it is currently preparing by the panel. There are two specific objectives is needed to review the possible impacts of changing climate on agricultural. Firstly, the paper will synthesize the likely impacts of climate change on China and India’s agricultural production especially for crops C3 and C4. Secondly, this paper also review the adaptive responses to change in climate that could potentially be made and promoted in the agricultural sector. Additionally, this paper discusses the overview of Asian agriculture and likely outcome if climates do warm by observing several scientific evidence on climate change. This paper done some projection by reviewing existing literatures which various research studies have been approaches to estimate the changes. The impact of climate change in agriculture sector in two countries is also describe. The countermeasure to be consider in response to warming climate will be the last section in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instrumental data from the pre–Industrial Revolution period are important to -understand climate change. In this paper, the observations made by the French missionary J. Amiot in present-day central Beijing during 1757–62 were processed and analyzed. The observations represent the earliest continuous dataset of meteorological records found in China that have been digitized recently. Comparisons between the Amiot annual temperature range and extreme values with modern observations showed that the observations were read at approximately 0800 and 1500 local solar time (LST) in a well-ventilated outdoor site. The daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures (T-max, T-min, and T-mean, respectively) during 1757–62 were determined by examining the relationship between temperature at 0800 and 1500 LST and T-max, T-min, and T-mean in modern reference series. Nearly 260 years ago, Beijing's climate was typical of an inland temperate monsoon zone with annual T-mean, annual mean T-max, and annual mean T-min being 11.5°, 17.8°, and 6.1°C, respectively; further, the temperatures did not vary considerably from the 1951–1980 temperatures, but differed evidently compared to relatively recent decades (1981–2020). The difference was larger than the magnitudes of global and regional temperature changes. Thus, climate warming since the pre–Industrial Revolution period in the urban areas of Beijing has dominantly occurred over the last four decades. Uncertainties related to the thermometer and observational conditions 260 years ago and the interpolation method used have also been discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia – both regions being predominantly characterised by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities – spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Special Issue highlights the most recent socio-legal research related to the mitigation, if not the elimination, of the threat of anthropogenic disasters in Asia and beyond. The drafts of these papers were originally presented at the Presidential Session on "The Anthropocene and the Law in Asia" at the Fourth Asian Law and Society Association (ALSA) Conference held in the vibrant city of Osaka, Japan in December 2019. The timing of this particular session, the first of its kind to be held at an ALSA Conference, turned out to be somewhat prophetic, in that two anthropogenic catastrophes—the historic zoonotic pandemic and the cataclysmic wild bushfires—had just begun to strike in December in Wuhan, China and in New South Wales, Australia, respectively. The novel coronavirus pandemic would kill more than 1 million people in the following months, after infecting more than 40 million across the globe. The Australian wild bushfires killed and displaced more than 3 billion animals, becoming the worst wildfire ever recorded in the world. Since that last ALSA Conference in December 2019, multiple anthropogenic disasters have hit various regions in Asia and across the world. The papers in this Special Issue examine various impacts of anthropogenic disasters and propose innovative socio-legal strategies to mitigate them. Included are arguments for the proposal of new legal education curricula and innovative pedagogy on environmental law and the exploration of an international multidisciplinary teaching framework in reconsidering and reshaping human-centric legal education. Also proposed is the development of a robust Earth Jurisprudence based on the adoption of the Rights of Nature principles, while moving away from the Euro-American exploitive view of nature as commodified properties. Additionally proposed is the establishment of a land-based, topological jurisprudence that incorporates the nuanced narratives of indigenous voices in dealing with the threat of human-induced ecological and environmental disasters in the years ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is not something that has never happened before. However, it has recently been reported that climate change has affected living things such as humans, animals and plants. Among the animals that may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change are migratory bird species. Therefore, this review paper will emphasise the checklist of migratory bird species found to be affected by climate change. Data for bird migration species in Asia are obtained from the Birdlife Data Zone. At the same time, the data for Global land surface temperature (1910-2020) and Asia land surface temperature (1910-2020) were taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for Environmental information. These papers showed that climate warming could affect species differently, but there are still species from certain populations not affected at all. This paper also reviewed that approximately 169 species of migratory birds in Asia are affected by climate change and severe weather. Of the total, 5 species (2.96%) are critically endangered, 8 (4.73%) endangered, 21 (12.43%) vulnerable, 27 (15.98%) near threatened and 123 (63.91%) least concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the internal migration of fishers from coastal communities of Bangladesh in response to extreme weather events. It also assesses the vulnerabilities to extreme weather events of these coastal areas, in general, and of targeted fishing communities, in particular. This qualitative study employs a combination of methods, semistructured interviews and observations, in two villages located in the eastern part of Kalapara Upazila, Patuakhali district of Bangladesh. The results indicate that the participants of the study are susceptible to the vulnerability of extreme weather events due to their households' socioeconomic and geographical location. This study shows that most people from the fishing communities do not migrate to other places to escape from the vulnerabilities as they have high dependency on fish-related activities. Also, there are various socioeconomic and cultural factors that hinder their migration, including the Mohajon–Dadon system, migration costs, lack of skills and resources, and fear of income insecurity. Instead of migrating, they develop their own traditional adaptation mechanisms to ensure their survival. These people remain underrepresented and are not adequately recorded in national or regional migration data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Communicating climate change effectively is an essential step towards creating an enabling environment for widespread societal adaptation. Yet less attention has been placed upon exploring what is known about effectively communicating climate change for adaptation in semi-arid regions, despite their uniqueness. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on the climate adaptation communications challenge in the drylands of Africa and Asia. The paper maps out the current state of knowledge on how climate change information is communicated, accessed and used for adaptation within the drylands of Africa and Asia. It reveals insights into the unique contextual challenges faced by climate communications efforts in drylands, such as power and equity dimensions of knowledge generation and access. A move towards more dialogic forms of communication and knowledge generation is noted as one potential solution with clear tensions associated with issues of scale and the effectiveness of communication outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional ways of reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather are widely practiced in many rural societies in the world. They have been, however, often discounted by a western science-based meteorological forecasting system, although they are important sociocultural tools for mitigating climatic risks. This paper concerns two thematic issues: traditional knowledge about reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather; and the transformation of that knowledge in the changing context of livelihood, the intervention of modern education, and use of modern weather forecasting technology. This study was carried out at Kirtipur of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, between 2011 and 2021. Information was collected through key informant interviews, observation, and informal discussion and survey. The findings reveal that the traditional weather forecasting system is closely intertwined with climatic phenomena, traditional agriculture practices, the local landscape, myths, and beliefs. The recognition of farmers’ knowledge on weather forecasting should be a resource of a great potential value. However, rapid expansion of the market economy, access to modern technology, affordability, access to modern education, and anthropogenic climate change have gradually detached people from their farmlands, traditional livelihoods, and occupations. All of this seems to have weakened social interaction between generations as well as their attachment to nature. Last, we conclude that the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providing sound evidence to inform decision-making that considers the needs of the most vulnerable to climate change will help both adaptation and development efforts. Such evidence is particularly important in climate change 'hot spots', where strong climate signal and high concentrations of vulnerable people are present. These hot spots include semiarid regions and deltas of Africa and Asia, and glacier- and snowpack-dependent river basins of South Asia. In advance of a major research effort focusing on these three hot spots, studies were commissioned to identify and characterize the current status of knowledge in each on biophysical impacts, social vulnerability, and adaptation policy and practice. The resulting seven papers are brought together in this special edition, with this editorial introduction providing background on these hot spots, the program through which the studies were commissioned, and an overview of the papers that follow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This paper aims to explore how the implementation of community-driven approaches to improve the living conditions of the urban poor can also have positive co-benefits for resilience to climate change, by addressing the underlying drivers of physical, social and economic vulnerability.Design/methodology/approach The paper applies a case study approach, drawing from the documented experiences of organised urban poor groups in Asian countries already actively participating in collective settlement upgrading, building networks and financial resources for further action.Findings The findings show that while certain actions might not be taken with climate change adaptation specifically in mind, these development activities also contribute to broader resilience to climate change, by reducing exposure to risk and addressing other drivers of vulnerability. The findings also show that partnerships between low income communities and other urban stakeholders, including local government, and innovative financial mechanisms managed by communities, can lead to scaled-up action to address development and adaptation deficits. This can lead the way for transformation in socio-political systems.Practical implications The approaches applied by organised urban poor groups in Asia show that community-level actions can make a positive contribution to building their resilience to climate change, and with local government support and partnership, it could lead to scaled-up actions, through a bottom-up approach to multi-level governance.Originality/value This paper considers how community-driven actions can build resilience to climate change, and it argues that adaptation and development should be considered together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous economic growth and the rise in energy consumption are linked with environmental pollution. Demand for health care expenditure increased after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is interesting in modeling the nexus between public and private health expenditure, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth. To this end, the present study analyzed the nexus between public and private health care expenditure, economic growth, and environmental pollution for 36 Asian countries for the period 1991–2017. FMOLS, GMM, and quantile regression analysis confirm the EKC hypothesis in Asia. Besides, FMOLS and quantile regressions reached the reducing effects of government and private health expenditures on CO2 emissions. While quantile regression results show that public and private health expenditures can mitigate CO2 emissions; however, these results differ for various levels of CO2. Findings of quantile regression show a significant impact of both public and private health expenditures in reducing CO2 at the 50th and 75th quantiles but results are insignificant for the 25th quantile. Overall, the paper concludes that both government and private health sectors' expenditures caused CO2 emissions to decrease in Asia and that the negative impact of the private health sector on CO2 emissions is greater than that of the government health sector. The concluding remark is that the higher the health spending, the higher the environmental quality will be in Asia. Hence, the health administrators need to increase public and private health expenditures with an effective cost-service and energy-efficient management approach to reach sustainable health services and a sustainable environment in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic growth in Asia has increased in the past three decades and has heightened energy demand, resulting in rising greenhouse gas emissions and severe air pollution. To tackle these issues, fuel switching and the deployment of renewables are essential. In the present paper, we discuss the environmental regulations, mainly carbon pricing, implemented in Asia and discuss their achievements. Empirical studies using microdata have shown that carbon pricing in Asia can reduce carbon emissions by promoting energy efficiency. At the macro level, we observe some evidence of fuel switching from coal to natural gas among major emitters. However, more carbon pricing is necessary in Asia if we aim for the decarbonization of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil palm (OP) is affected by climate change and the cultivation of the crop also contributes to climate alteration. Simulation modelling and large data sets indicated the effects of climate change on OP will be to (a) reduce growth and yields and (b) cause death of some OP. Furthermore, basal stem rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninense, a serious disease of OP, has increased over the past two or three decades because of the disease spreading from infection foci at a greater rate in repeated crops of OP planted on infested sites. The disease may increase further by natural selection of more virulent strains of the fungus. In this paper, increased mortality of OP is predicted based on climate change scenarios for Kalimantan and other South‐East Asian countries with palm oil industries. Climate suitability scenarios for growing OP are also used to assess how BSR will change in the specified region and countries. The data suggest that Kalimantan and the Philippines may be more suitable for growing OP than Thailand and Myanmar, with Papua New Guinea being intermediate. Development of methods for mitigating the effects of climate change on OP is urgently required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the possible influence of external forcings on observed changes in precipitation extremes in the mid-to-high latitudes of Asia during 1958–2012 and attempts to identify particular extreme precipitation indices on which there are better chances to detect the influence of external forcings. We compare a recently compiled dataset of observed extreme indices with those from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations using an optimal fingerprinting method. We consider six indices that characterize different aspects of extreme precipitation, including annual maximum amount of precipitation falling in 1 day (Rx1day) or 5 days (Rx5day), the total amount of precipitation from the top 5% or top 1% daily amount on wet days, and the fraction of the annual total precipitation from these events. For single-signal analysis, the fingerprints of external forcings including anthropogenic agents are robustly detected in most studied extreme indices over all Asia and for midlatitude Asia but not for high-latitude Asia. For two-signal analysis, anthropogenic influence is detectable in these indices over Asia at 5% or slightly less than 5% significance level, whereas natural influence is not detectable. In high-latitude Asia, anthropogenic influence is detected only in a fractional index, representing a stark contrast to the midlatitude and full Asia results. We find relatively smaller internal variability and thus higher signal-to-noise ratio in the fractional indices when compared with the other ones. Our results point to the need for studying precipitation extreme indices that are less affected by internal variability while still representing the relevant nature of precipitation extremes to improve the possibility of detecting a forced signal if one is present in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the degree to which exposure to natural disasters and poor governance (quality of governance) is associated with absolute child poverty in sixty-seven middle- and low-income countries. The data is representative for about 2.8 billion of the world´s population. Institutionalist tend to argue that many of society’s ills, including poverty, derive from fragile or inefficient institutions. However, our findings show that although increasing quality of government tends to be associated with less poverty, the negative effects of natural disasters on child poverty are independent of a country´s institutional efficiency. Increasing disaster victims (killed and affected) is associated with higher rates of child poverty. A child´s estimated odds ratio to be in a state of absolute poverty increases by about a factor of 5.7 [95% CI: 1.7 to 18.7] when the average yearly toll of disasters in the child´s country increases by one on a log-10 scale. Better governance correlates with less child poverty, but it does not modify the correlation between child poverty and natural disasters. The results are based on hierarchical regression models that partition the variance into three parts: child, household, and country. The models were cross-sectional and based on observational data from the Demographic Health Survey and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which were collected at the beginning of the twenty-first millennium. The Sustainable Development Goals are a principle declaration to halt climate change, but they lack a clear plan on how the burden of this change should be shared by the global community. Based on our results, we suggest that the development agencies should take this into account and to articulate more equitable global policies to protect the most vulnerable, specifically children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper scrutinizes the zonal oscillation of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) via diagnosing its two extreme phases, which are defined by the top 10% strongest (positive phase) and the weakest (negative phase) WNPSH index (WNPSHI) days during summers in 1979–2016. Key findings include the following: a tripole pattern consisting of intensified (weakened) precipitation over the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon regions, and suppressed (strengthened) precipitation over the western North Pacific summer monsoon region during positive (negative) WNPSH phases; a westward movement of WNPSH-induced precipitation anomalies that subsequently affects eastern China, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula at different time lags; an OLR–vorticity pattern explained by atmospheric responses to thermal sources is suggested to drive the oscillation; and the competitive interaction of local air–sea feedbacks, especially during the positive phase. In addition, moderate-to-strong positive correlations between the WNPSHI and the Niño-3.4 index are found on 1–2-, 2–3-, and 3–6-yr time scales; both exhibit decadal shifts to a higher-frequency mode, suggesting the intensification of both the zonal WNPSH oscillation and the ENSO under the changing climate and their close interdecadal association. A nonlinear quasi-biennial WNPSH–ENSO relationship is identified: the positive (negative) WNPSH phase sometimes occurs during 1) a decaying El Niño (La Niña) in the preceding summer/autumn, and/or 2) a developing La Niña (El Niño) in the current summer/autumn. A full ENSO transition from moderate-to-strong El Niño to La Niña is often seen during the positive phase, offering potential in predicting ENSO events and extreme WNPSH phases and thereby the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation is a key component of climate policy, yet we have limited and fragmented understanding of if and how adaptation is currently taking place. In this paper, we document and characterize the current status of adaptation in 47 vulnerable 'hotspot' nations in Asia and Africa, based on a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature, as well as policy documents, to extract evidence of adaptation initiatives. In total, 100 peer-reviewed articles, 161 grey literature documents, and 27 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications were reviewed, constituting 760 adaptation initiatives. Results indicate a significant increase in reported adaptations since 2006. Adaptations are primarily being reported from African and low-income countries, particularly those nations receiving adaptation funds, involve a combination of groundwork and more concrete adaptations to reduce vulnerability, and are primarily being driven by national governments, NGOs, and international institutions, with minimal involvement of lower levels of government or collaboration across nations. Gaps in our knowledge of adaptation policy and practice are particularly notable in North Africa and Central Asia, and there is limited evidence of adaptation initiatives being targeted at vulnerable populations including socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, children, indigenous peoples, and the elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to homogenize China's surface solar radiation (SSR) data and uses the resulting homogenized SSR data to assess the SSR trend over the period 1958-2016. Neighboring surface sunshine duration (SSD) data are used as reference data to assess the SSR data homogeneity. A principal component analysis is applied to build a reference series, which is proven to be less sensitive to occasional data issues than using the arithmetic mean of data from adjacent stations. A relative or absolute test is applied to detect changepoints, depending on whether or not a suitable reference series is available. A quantile-matching method is used to adjust the data to diminish the inhomogeneities. As a result, 60 out of the 119 SSR stations were found to have inhomogeneity issues. These were mainly caused by changes in instrument and observation schedule. The nonclimatic changes exaggerated the SSR change rates in 1991-93 and resulted in a sudden rise in the national average SSR series, causing an unrealistically drastic trend reversal in the 1990s. This was diminished by the data homogenization. The homogenized data show that the national average SSR has been declining significantly over the period 1958-90; this dimming trend mostly diminished over the period 1991-2005 and was replaced by a brightening trend in the recent decade. From the homogenized SSR data, the 1958-90 and 1958-2005 dimming rate is estimated to be -6.13 ± 0.47 and -5.08 ± 0.27W m-2 decade-1, respectively, and the 2005-16 brightening rate is 6.13 ± 1.77W m-2 decade-1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme meteorological events such as tropical cyclones. In the western Pacific basin, these cyclones are called typhoons, and in this area, around Taiwan Island, their frequency has almost doubled since 2000. When approaching landmasses, typhoons have devastating effects on coastal vegetation. The increased frequency of these events has challenged the survival of coastal plant species and their posttyphoon recovery. In this study, a population of coastal gynodioecious Ficus pedunculosa var. mearnsii (Mearns fig) was surveyed for two years to investigate its recovery after Typhoon Morakot, which occurred in August 2009. Similar to all the Ficus species, the Mearns fig has an obligate mutualistic association with pollinating fig wasp species, which requires syconia (the closed Ficus inflorescence) to complete its life cycle. Moreover, male gynodioecious fig species produces both pollen and pollen vectors, whereas the female counterpart produces only seeds. The recovery of the Mearns fig was observed to be rapid, with the production of both leaves and syconia. The syconium:leaf ratio was greater for male trees than for female trees, indicating the importance of syconium production for the wasp survival. Pollinating wasps live for approximately 1 day; therefore, receptive syconia are crucial. Every typhoon season, few typhoons pass by the coasts where the Mearns fig grows, destroying all the leaves and syconia. In this paper, we highlight the potential diminution of the fig population that can lead to the extinction of the mutualistic pair of species. The effects of climate change on coastal species warrant wider surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWS requires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes and forecastable. No such definition has been developed for Bangladesh. Using a generalized additive regression model, a heat-wave definition is proposed that requires elevated minimum and maximum daily temperatures over the 95th percentile for 3 consecutive days, confirming the importance of nighttime conditions for health impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during heat waves; this result can be used as an argument for public-health interventions to prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability of these heat waves exists from weather to seasonal time scales, offering opportunities for a range of preparedness measures. Heat waves are associated with an absence of normal premonsoonal rainfall brought about by anomalously strong low-level westerly winds and weak southerlies, detectable up to approximately 10 days in advance. This circulation pattern occurs over a background of drier-than-normal conditions, with below-average soil moisture and precipitation throughout the heat-wave season from April to June. Low soil moisture increases the odds of heat-wave occurrence for 10-30 days, indicating that subseasonal forecasts of heat-wave risk may be possible by monitoring soil-moisture conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions ( WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia is one of the countries that is most vulnerable to climate change. As a small Indonesian island, Bali is likely to also be affected by climate change impacts, including rising sea levels, drought, and flooding, which will also impact on its paddy production. This paper shows how the focus area of vulnerability assessments in Bali has been identified, based on multiple assessments including literature reviews, statistical assessment, stakeholder and policy assessment, and interviews with farmers. A project team applied a six-step process to identify issues linked to climate change, the purpose and system of vulnerability assessment, potential risk/harm in context, and potential variables for a further assessment. The team identified paddy production as a significant issue, and the purpose and system was the Presidential Decree No.5 on paddy production. Significant concerns linked to paddy production included droughts, land use change, and potential variables for vulnerability assessment such as water level and the price of rice. This paper suggests how adaptive measures should be implemented to handle paddy production in a changing climate. The results of this paper were used by a vulnerability assessment on rice paddy and climate change [Takama, T., Setyani, P., & Aldrian, E. (2014). Climate change vulnerability to rice paddy production in Bali, Indonesia. In W. Leal Filho (Ed.),Handbook of climate change adaptation(pp. 1–23). Berlin: Springer]. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change remains a threat as it impairs environmental, economic, and social instability. It poses significant risk that include, but are not limited to, the dispersion of people within and across geographical regions. In this study, we investigate the intricate relationship between climate change and migration dynamics, focusing on Asian migrants to the Russian Federation. The study used the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model with annual data from 1997 to 2022 to analyze migration flow to Russia as a result of climate change and other push factors from their home country. Our findings reveal that temperature anomalies are a significant push factor in migration flow, especially in the long run. Additional push factors, such as unemployment, were found to exert influence on migration patterns. An implication of the study is that the impact of climate change may not be immediately apparent, but when it does occur, it can play a significant role in driving migration, along with other factors. This further suggests that the primary effect of climate change is the increased frequency of migration and displacement of people to search for better living conditions and opportunities. Our analysis highlights the nuanced role of climate in migration decisions, urging policymakers to consider climate-specific strategies to address the growing issue of displacement. We recommend that the government should invest in adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent technological advancements have revolutionized agriculture in Asia, leading to significant changes in crop yield stability. This study examines the changing face of crop yield stability in Asia resulting from the increasing adoption of innovative technologies in agriculture. Through a review of current research and case studies, the impact of technology-driven changes on yield levels, variability, and predictability is explored. The study applies a yield stability index (YSI) to evaluate the yield stability of six crops in seven Asian countries during two periods (1961–1994 and 1995–2020), comparing the countries, crops, and stability changes between the two segments. The novelty of the research is the application of YSI, which, contrary to usual stability metrics, can distinguish between rare large extreme yields and frequent minor fluctuations, and based on this feature, evaluates the suitability of the prevailing technologies to local environmental conditions. The YSI is used to evaluate the stability of technologies, indicating whether the technologies can respond well to the annual variations of environmental conditions. Positive YSI values indicate stable technologies that can respond well to the annual variations of environmental conditions, and the concept of a well-technologized crop is used for crops in countries with stable positive YSI values, indicating the suitability of the actual crop to the actual geographical environment. These results can guide production technology developments and the introduction or abandonment of certain crops in certain geographical zones, especially regarding the implications of climate change and global warming. This study highlights the transformative power of technology in improving crop yield stability and food security in Asia, while discussing the potential challenges associated with these changes and the need for continued research to address them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the potential impacts of global warming is likely to be experienced through changes in flood frequency and magnitude, which poses a potential threat to the downstream reservoir flood control system. In this paper, the downscaling results of the multimodel dataset from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively) were coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on the Feilaixia reservoir flood control in the Beijiang River basin for the first time. Four emissions scenarios [A1B and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5] were chosen. Results indicate that annual distribution and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are well simulated by the downscaling results of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multimodel dataset. The VIC model, which performs reasonably well in simulating runoff processes with high model efficiency and low relative error, is suitable for the study area. Overall, annual maximum 1-day precipitation in 2020-50 would increase under all the scenarios (relative to the baseline period 1970-2000). However, the spatial distribution patterns of changes in projected extreme precipitation are uneven under different scenarios. Extreme precipitation is most closely associated with extreme floods in the study area. There is a gradual increase in extreme floods in 2020-50 under any of the different emission scenarios. The increases in 500-yr return period daily discharge of the Feilaixia reservoir have been found to be from 4.35% to 9.18% in 2020-50. The reservoir would be likely to undergo more flooding in 2020-50. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's surface warming by external forcing depends on location. Warming amplification, or greater surface warming than the global average, occurs in the Arctic and high-elevation regions, including the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We examined the major drivers of TP warming amplification in recent decades (1979–2020) and under future climate scenarios (2061–2100) by applying local energy budget diagnosis of multiple radiative kernels based on state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets and coupled model simulations. From 1979 to 2020, both the snow–albedo feedback and cloud–radiation feedback strongly affected the seasonality of TP warming (summer vs winter). Snow cover and albedo decreased significantly in winter but showed only small changes in summer. TP total and low-level cloud cover increased in summer, causing cooling, and decreased in winter, causing warming. During winter, TP warming amplification (1.84 from 1979 to 2020) is weaker than Arctic amplification (3.64) because the positive contribution of the surface albedo feedback to TP warming is not as strong as the dual warming effects of the lapse rate feedback and surface heat flux observed in the Arctic. Our attribution analyses based on the preindustrial control (piControl) and Historical simulations of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project confirmed that TP warming is caused by external forcing. Because the external forcing associated with anthropogenic activity is increasing, TP warming will continue to the end of the twenty-first century. Under likely future warming scenarios, winter TP warming amplification is still less than in the Arctic due to the effects of the lapse rate feedback and surface heat flux. Significance Statement: Over the Tibetan Plateau, warming amplification, which refers to greater surface warming than the global average (∼75% more warming than the global average from 1979 to 2020), has resulted in melting permafrost, retreating glaciers, and decreasing biodiversity. This study quantified the relative effects of eight physical processes on the warming amplification over the Tibetan Plateau. In the boreal winter, the reduction in snow cover and albedo are the leading contributors (about 49%) to Tibetan Plateau warming, meaning that melting snow exposes darker ground that absorbs more sunlight than snow does. In a warmer future climate, continued melting snow cover is projected to further enhance Tibetan Plateau warming amplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]