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Degradation of coastal ecosystems by eutrophication is largely defined by nitrogen loading from land via surface and groundwater flows. However, indicators of water quality are highly variable due to a myriad of other drivers, including temperature and precipitation. To evaluate these drivers, we examined spatial and temporal trends in a 22 year record of summer water quality data from 122 stations in 17 embayments within Buzzards Bay, MA (USA), collected through a citizen science monitoring program managed by Buzzards Bay Coalition. To identify spatial patterns across Buzzards Bay's embayments, we used a principle component and factor analysis and found that rotated factor loadings indicated little correlation between inorganic nutrients and organic matter and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration. Factor scores showed that embayment geomorphology in addition to nutrient loading was a strong driver of water quality, where embayments with surface water inputs showed larger biological impacts than embayments dominated by groundwater influx. A linear regression analysis of annual summertime water quality indicators over time revealed that from 1992 to 2013, most embayments (15 of 17) exhibited an increase in temperature (mean rate of 0.082 ± 0.025 (SD) °C yr-1) and Chl a (mean rate of 0.0171 ± 0.0088 log10 (Chl a; mgm-3)yr-1, equivalent to a 4.0% increase per year). However, only 7 embayments exhibited an increase in total nitrogen (TN) concentration (mean rate 0.32 ± 0.47 (SD)μM yr-1). Average summertime log10 (TN) and log10 (Chl a) were correlated with an indication that yield of Chl a per unit total nitrogen increased with time suggesting the estuarine response to TN may have changed because of other stressors such as warming, altered precipitation patterns, or changing light levels. These findings affirm that nitrogen loading and physical aspects of embayments are essential in explaining observed ecosystem response. However, climate-related stressors may also need to be considered by managers because increased temperature and precipitation may worsen water quality and partially offset benefits achieved by reducing nitrogen loading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring the clustered data structure on allometric models. Clustered data, in the form of multiple trees sampled from multiple forest stands is commonly used to develop biomass allometric models. Of 102 reviewed papers published between 2012 and 2016 that reported biomass allometric models, 84 (82%) have used a clustered sampling design. However, in as many as 80% of these, the clustered data structure was ignored, potentially violating the independence assumption in ordinary least squares methods. The consequences of ignoring clustered data structure were empirically validated using two clustered biomass datasets (of 110 and 220 trees, with the cluster size of 5 and 10 trees respectively). We showed that when Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure returned underestimated standard errors, affecting further the confidence interval and t-test results. The underestimation level depended on ICC (which shows the variance proportion that was caused by the forest stand) and on cluster size (the number of trees sampled from one forest stand). We also showed that using first-order autocorrelation tests, such as the traditional Durbin-Watson statistic, to detect the autocorrelation due to clustered structure could be misleading as the test may show lack of autocorrelation even though ICC is different from zero. In conclusion, when ICC is higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure yields over-confident biomass predictions (due to underestimated confidence interval) and/or incorrect research conclusions (due to overestimated evidence against null hypothesis in t-test). Therefore, using a modelling approach that accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data is highly recommended when any form of clustering can be identified, even if the autocorrelation is not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is taken as a new site of scientific inquiry across the disciplines against the backdrop of the global discourses of the crisis human society confronts today. Our inability to predict and forecast the future and the problems of climate change led to a theoretical vacuum and thereby burden on the scientific communities. Climate change-induced uncertainties manifested in the manifold and their implications on human society, livelihood and ecosystem have increasingly become the objects of analysis for devising empirical tools for field enquiry. It challenges the specificities while looking at the events of uncertainties in context. The new set of evidence on climate change has also redefined the role of the scientific community. This paper discusses climate-related events in the lives of people and the changes in the ecosystem and explores how such factors became an object of scientific inquiry. With the ideas of political ecology, the domain of scientific practices is transformed into an arena of co-production of knowledge in which place, social context and agencies become central. This study explores (1) how the scientific community adapted to outline an interdisciplinary research programme to systematically investigate and register climate-change-affected areas and (2) how the local people in Ladakh Himalaya have participated and reflected on the changing pattern of livelihood and ecosystem through this research enquiry. It has further complicated the analysis on nature-culture dialectics to adapt a robust scientific method to signify the importance of mutual learning and knowledge co-production in climate science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discourse of a climate and ecological emergency (CEE), especially as articulated in 2019 by Extinction Rebellion, impinges on two major features of western death mentalities. First, in order to motivate action, CEE discourse induces mortality awareness, death anxiety and grief, and thus furthers the de-sequestration of death and grief. Second, the CEE redirects attention from the death of personally known individuals, to species death; and even if humans survive as a species, it may only be after many billions of humans have died. This anxiety about future collective death arguably comprises a new death mentality. The paper compares and contrasts the CEE with other harbingers of mass mortality such as nuclear war and the Covid pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the foci of the Forum for Artic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project is improving Arctic regional ice‐ocean models and understanding of physical processes regulating variability of Arctic environmental conditions based on synthesis of observations and model results. The Beaufort Gyre, centered in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean, is an ideal phenomenon and natural laboratory for application of FAMOS modeling capabilities to resolve numerous scientific questions related to the origin and variability of this climatologic freshwater reservoir and flywheel of the Arctic Ocean. The unprecedented volume of data collected in this region is nearly optimal to describe the state and changes in the Beaufort Gyre environmental system at synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. The in situ and remote sensing data characterizing ocean hydrography, sea surface heights, ice drift, concentration and thickness, ocean circulation, and biogeochemistry have been used for model calibration and validation or assimilated for historic reconstructions and establishing initial conditions for numerical predictions. This special collection of studies contributes time series of the Beaufort Gyre data; new methodologies in observing, modeling, and analysis; interpretation of measurements and model output; and discussions and findings that shed light on the mechanisms regulating Beaufort Gyre dynamics as it transitions to a new state under different climate forcing. Key Points: Introduction to the FAMOS‐2 special collection with papers mainly on studies in the region of the Arctic Ocean's Beaufort GyrePhysical, geochemical, biological, and ecosystem components of the Beaufort Gyre system are investigatedNew observations, ideas, and hypotheses revealing mechanisms influencing the Beaufort Gyre are discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identified 30 agro-ecosystem specific sustainability indicators. • Sustainability indicators help in mapping the climate resilience of agriculture. • We propose a framework, "Climate Risk Management Package for Agriculture (CRiMPA)", to aid in planning interventions. The impending threats of changing climate have been well documented across sectors. The climate risks are best addressed through increasing adaptive capacity and building resilience. Ever since the global call during the Rio Summit in 1992 for establishing sustainability indicators across sectors, there have been several studies across the world on developing indicators for sustainability, vulnerability and climate resilience. Agriculture, the most vulnerable system to changing climate, depends on the resilience of both social and ecological systems. This paper focuses on integrating the variability of climate into the agricultural sustainability measurement with a broad base of indicators and bringing in the localized factors for representing the agroecosystem specificities. The paper also aims at identifying indicators for measuring climate resilient agriculture in Indian sub-continent and developing a conceptual framework for profiling the spatial resilience across various agro-ecosystems for appropriate location-specific policy interventions. In the current study 1209 indicators used in various research studies were screened, grouped for similarity and purpose and classified based on the various dimensions viz., social, economic, ecological, etc. After a critical review based on their appropriateness as a measurable indicator, extent of overlap, relevance in Indian context and possible data availability, 41 indicators were shortlisted for validation through a comprehensive structured online survey among subject matter specialists (n = 225). The responses from the experts (n = 36) were analysed using weighted sum model (WSM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study identifies a list of 30 sustainability indicators for climate resilient agriculture in India, that are particularly suitable for different agro-ecosystems of the sub-continent. The authors advocate an action-oriented model called Climate Risk Management Package for Agriculture (CRiMPA) to aid in planning spatial/agro-ecosystem specific interventions, which in turn could strengthen the National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) of Government of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at conducting the first science mapping analysis of the Mediterranean forest research in order to elucidate its research structure and evolution. We applied a science mapping approach based on co-term and citation analyses to a set of scientific publications retrieved from the Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1980–2014. The Scopus search retrieved 2,698 research papers and reviews published by 159 peer-reviewed journals. The total number of publications was around 1% (N = 17) during the period 1980–1989 and they reached 3% (N = 69) in the time slice 1990–1994. Since 1995, the number of publications increased exponentially, thus reaching 55% (N = 1,476) during the period 2010–2014. Within the thirty-four years considered, the retrieved publications were published by 88 countries. Among them, Spain was the most productive country, publishing 44% (N = 1,178) of total publications followed by Italy (18%, N = 482) and France (12%, N = 336). These countries also host the ten most productive scientific institutions in terms of number of publications in Mediterranean forest subjects. Forest Ecology and Management and Annals of Forest Science were the most active journals in publishing research in Mediterranean forest. During the period 1980–1994, the research topics were poorly characterized, but they become better defined during the time slice 1995–1999. Since 2000s, the clusters become well defined by research topics. Current status of Mediterranean forest research (20092014) was represented by four clusters, in which different research topics such as biodiversity and conservation, land-use and degradation, climate change effects on ecophysiological responses and soil were identified. Basic research in Mediterranean forest ecosystems is mainly conducted by ecophysiological research. Applied research was mainly represented by land-use and degradation, biodiversity and conservation and fire research topics. The citation analyses revealed highly cited terms in the Mediterranean forest research as they were represented by fire, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, climate change and global warming. Finally, our analysis also revealed the multidisciplinary role of climate change research. This study provides a first holistic view of the Mediterranean forest research that could be useful for researchers and policy makers as they may evaluate and analyze its historical evolution, as well as its structure and scientific production. We concluded that Mediterranean forest research represents an active scientific field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the complete Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) system, developed for multi-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management of coastal areas worldwide under a changing climate. The system is designed as a low-tech tool that can be used in areas with limited data availability and institutional capacity and is therefore especially suited for applications in developing countries. The CHW constitutes a key for determining the characteristics of a particular coastline, its hazard profile and possible management options, and the system can be used for local, regional and national hazard screening and management. The system is developed to assess the main coastal hazards in a single process and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system was initially presented in 2012 and based on a range of test-applications and feedback from coastal experts, the system has been further refined and developed into a complete hazard management tool. This paper therefore covers the coastal classification system used by the CHW, a standardized assessment procedure for implementation of multi-hazard-assessments, technical guidance on hazard management options and project cost examples. The paper thereby aims at providing an introduction to the use of the CHW system for assessing and managing coastal hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories. Methods and findings: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions. Conclusion: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Information on the response of vegetation to different environmental drivers, including rainfall, forms a critical input to ecosystem models. Currently, such models are run based on parameters that, in some cases, are either assumed or lack supporting evidence (e.g., that vegetation growth across Africa is rainfall‐driven). A limited number of studies have reported that the onset of rain across Africa does not fully explain the onset of vegetation growth, for example, drawing on the observation of prerain flush effects in some parts of Africa. The spatial extent of this prerain green‐up effect, however, remains unknown, leaving a large gap in our understanding that may bias ecosystem modelling. This paper provides the most comprehensive spatial assessment to‐date of the magnitude and frequency of the different patterns of phenology response to rainfall across Africa and for different vegetation types. To define the relations between phenology and rainfall, we investigated the spatial variation in the difference, in number of days, between the start of rainy season (SRS) and start of vegetation growing season (SOS); and between the end of rainy season (ERS) and end of vegetation growing season (EOS). We reveal a much more extensive spread of prerain green‐up over Africa than previously reported, with prerain green‐up being the norm rather than the exception. We also show the relative sparsity of postrain green‐up, confined largely to the Sudano‐Sahel region. While the prerain green‐up phenomenon is well documented, its large spatial extent was not anticipated. Our results, thus, contrast with the widely held view that rainfall drives the onset and end of the vegetation growing season across Africa. Our findings point to a much more nuanced role of rainfall in Africa's vegetation growth cycle than previously thought, specifically as one of a set of several drivers, with important implications for ecosystem modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Southeast Asia, projections of rapid urban growth coupled with high water-related risks call for large investments in infrastructure—including in blue–green infrastructure (BGI) such as forests, parks, or vegetated engineered systems. However, most of the knowledge on BGI is produced in the global North, overlooking the diversity of urban contexts globally. Here, we review the literature on BGI for flood risk mitigation and water quality improvement in Southeast Asian cities to understand the scope of practical knowledge and identify research needs. We searched for evidence of local types of BGI in peer-reviewed and grey literature and assessed the performance of BGI based on hydrological, societal, and environmental metrics. The body of literature on BGI in Southeast Asia is small and dominated by wealthier countries but we found evidence of uptake among researchers and practitioners in most countries. Bioretention systems, constructed wetlands, and green cover received the most attention in research. Evidence from modelling and laboratory studies confirmed the potential for BGI to address flooding and water quality issues in the region. However, practical knowledge to mainstream the implementation of BGI remains limited, with insufficient primary hydrological data and information on societal and environmental impacts. In addition, the performance of BGI in combination with grey infrastructure, under climate change, or in informal settlements is poorly studied. Future research and practice should focus on producing and sharing empirical data, ultimately increasing the regional knowledge base to promote efficient BGI strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia’s forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land use change are two major elements of human-induced global environmental change. In temperate grasslands and woodlands, increasing frequency of extreme weather events like droughts and increasing severity of wildfires has altered the structure and dynamics of vegetation. In this paper, we studied the impact of wildfires and the year-to-year differences in precipitation on species composition changes in semi-arid grasslands of a forest-steppe complex ecosystem which has been partially disturbed by wildfires. Particularly, we investigated both how long-term compositional dissimilarity changes and species richness are affected by year-to-year precipitation differences on burnt and unburnt areas. Study sites were located in central Hungary, in protected areas characterized by partially-burnt, juniper-poplar forest-steppe complexes of high biodiversity. Data were used from two long-term monitoring sites in the Kiskunság National Park, both characterized by the same habitat complex. We investigated the variation in species composition as a function of time using distance decay methodology. In each sampling area, compositional dissimilarity increased with the time elapsed between the sampling events, and species richness differences increased with increasing precipitation differences between consecutive years. We found that both the long-term compositional dissimilarity, and the year-to-year changes in species richness were higher in the burnt areas than in the unburnt ones. The long-term compositional dissimilarities were mostly caused by perennial species, while the year-to-year changes of species richness were driven by annual and biennial species. As the effect of the year-to-year variation in precipitation was more pronounced in the burnt areas, we conclude that canopy removal by wildfires and extreme inter-annual variability of precipitation, two components of global environmental change, act in a synergistic way. They enhance the effect of one another, resulting in greater long-term and year-to-year changes in the composition of grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shortwave solar radiation is an important component of the surface energy balance and provides the principal source of energy for terrestrial ecosystems. This paper presents a machine learning approach in the form of a random forest (RF) model for estimating daily downward solar radiation flux at the land surface over complex terrain using MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) remote sensing data. The model-building technique makes use of a unique network of 16 solar flux measurements in the semi-arid Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory, in southwest Idaho, USA. Based on a composite RF model built on daily observations from all 16 sites in the watershed, the model simulation of downward solar radiation matches well with the observation data (r2 = 0.96). To evaluate model performance, RF models were built from 12 of 16 sites selected at random and validated against the observations at the remaining four sites. Overall root mean square errors (RMSE), bias, and mean absolute error (MAE) are small (range: 37.17 W/m2-81.27 W/m2, -48.31 W/m2-15.67 W/m2, and 26.56 W/m2-63.77 W/m2, respectively). When extrapolated to the entire watershed, spatiotemporal patterns of solar flux are largely consistent with expected trends in this watershed. We also explored significant predictors of downward solar flux in order to reveal important properties and processes controlling downward solar radiation. Based on the composite RF model built on all 16 sites, the three most important predictors to estimate downward solar radiation include the black sky albedo (BSA) near infrared band (0.858 μm), BSA visible band (0.3–0.7 μm), and clear day coverage. This study has important implications for improving the ability to derive downward solar radiation through a fusion of multiple remote sensing datasets and can potentially capture spatiotemporally varying trends in solar radiation that is useful for land surface hydrologic and terrestrial ecosystem modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Yucatan Peninsula (YP) is one of the most important regions in global apiculture. Hence, this work reviews and integrates the knowledge of the species diversity, growth habits, ecosystems, floral calendars during the apiculture production cycles and the types of vegetation represented in the melliferous flora (MF) of the YP; as a basis for proposing selection strategies locating suitable apiculture production areas for local beekeepers and help in the economic development of the region. Methods: A comprehensive review of the MF literature was carried out using the snowball method to determine and update the number of species useful for apiculture. The growth habits and flower calendars were determined through a review of the literature and databases of specimens from the herbaria CICY, UCAM and MEXU. Results: The YP reports a total of 935 taxa of MF (98 families and 498 genera); of these, Campeche has 812 taxa, followed by Quintana Roo (786) and Yucatán (767). The MF is made up of herbs (282), followed by shrubs (260), trees (229), climbers (82), woody climbers (67) palms (14) and parasitic plant (1). Conclusion: Of the 935 species of MF registered at the regional level, a high number of species have flowering throughout the year, however, not all of these species are considered useful for local commercial apiculture. Only a select group of 23 species are considered of major importance for local apiculture industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Up until now montane cloud forest (MCF) in Taiwan has only been mapped for selected areas of vegetation plots. This paper presents the first comprehensive map of MCF distribution for the entire island. For its creation, a Random Forest model was trained with vegetation plots from the National Vegetation Database of Taiwan that were classified as “MCF” or “non-MCF”. This model predicted the distribution of MCF from a raster data set of parameters derived from a digital elevation model (DEM), Landsat channels and texture measures derived from them as well as ground fog frequency data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. While the DEM parameters and Landsat data predicted much of the cloud forest’s location, local deviations in the altitudinal distribution of MCF linked to the monsoonal influence as well as the Massenerhebung effect (causing MCF in atypically low altitudes) were only captured once fog frequency data was included. Therefore, our study suggests that ground fog data are most useful for accurately mapping MCF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a consensus-driven process identifying 50 priority research questions for historical ecology obtained through crowdsourcing, literature reviews, and in-person workshopping. A deliberative approach was designed to maximize discussion and debate with defined outcomes. Two in-person workshops (in Sweden and Canada) over the course of two years and online discussions were peer facilitated to define specific key questions for historical ecology from anthropological and archaeological perspectives. The aim of this research is to showcase the variety of questions that reflect the broad scope for historical-ecological research trajectories across scientific disciplines. Historical ecology encompasses research concerned with decadal, centennial, and millennial human-environmental interactions, and the consequences that those relationships have in the formation of contemporary landscapes. Six interrelated themes arose from our consensus-building workshop model: (1) climate and environmental change and variability; (2) multi-scalar, multi-disciplinary; (3) biodiversity and community ecology; (4) resource and environmental management and governance; (5) methods and applications; and (6) communication and policy. The 50 questions represented by these themes highlight meaningful trends in historical ecology that distill the field down to three explicit findings. First, historical ecology is fundamentally an applied research program. Second, this program seeks to understand long-term human-environment interactions with a focus on avoiding, mitigating, and reversing adverse ecological effects. Third, historical ecology is part of convergent trends toward transdisciplinary research science, which erodes scientific boundaries between the cultural and natural. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dry subtropics are subject to a rapid expansion of crops and pastures over vast areas of natural woodlands and savannas. In this paper, we explored the effect of this transformation on vegetation productivity (magnitude, and seasonal and long-term variability) along aridity gradients which span from semiarid to subhumid conditions, considering exclusively those areas with summer rains (>66%). Vegetation productivity was characterized with the proxy metric “Enhanced Vegetation Index” (EVI) (2000 to 2012 period), on 6186 natural and cultivated sampling points on five continents, and combined with a global climatology database by means of additive models for quantile regressions. Globally and regionally, cultivation amplified the seasonal and inter-annual variability of EVI without affecting its magnitude. Natural and cultivated systems maintained a similar and continuous increase of EVI with increasing water availability, yet achieved through contrasting ways. In natural systems, the productivity peak and the growing season length displayed concurrent steady increases with water availability, while in cultivated systems the productivity peak increased from semiarid to dry-subhumid conditions, and stabilized thereafter giving place to an increase in the growing season length towards wetter conditions. Our results help to understand and predict the ecological impacts of deforestation on vegetation productivity, a key ecosystem process linked to a broad range of services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of changes in temperature extremes are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural and ecological systems. Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale output from a large number of general circulation models (GCMs) to a fine temporal and spatial scale, providing the opportunity for future projections of extreme temperature events. This paper presents an analysis of extreme temperature data downscaled from 7 GCMs selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using a skill score based on spatial patterns of climatological means of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Data for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the New South Wales (NSW) wheat belt, south eastern Australia, have been analysed. The results show that downscaled data from most of the GCMs reproduces the correct sign of recent trends in all the extreme temperature indices (except the index for cold days) for 1961-2000. An independence weighted mean method is used to calculate uncertainty estimates, which shows that multi-model ensemble projections produce a consistent trend compared to the observations in most extreme indices. Great warming occurs in the east and northeast of the NSW wheat belt by 2061-2100 and increases the risk of exposure to hot days around wheat flowering date, which might result in farmers needing to reconsider wheat varieties suited to maintain yield. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from an ensemble of 7 CMIP5 GCM models with statistical downscaling data in the NSW wheat belt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Climate Resilience Education and Action for Dedicate Youth (Climate READY) program, developed by the Florida Atlantic University Pine Jog Environmental Education Center (FAU Pine Jog) and funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Environmental Literacy Program, built climate literacy and community resilience through a three-semester dual enrollment program (NOAA-SEC-OED-2020-2006190). Most student participants (~80 %) were from Title-1, high schools in low socio-economic communities vulnerable to extreme weather and environmental hazards in Palm Beach County, Florida. The main objectives were to increase knowledge of South Florida's changing climate systems, teach and promote environmentally responsible behavior that results in the stewardship of healthy ecosystems and a reduction in carbon consumption to mitigate future environmental risks, and empower students to act as agents of change within the community by teaching community members about local climate impacts and resilience strategies for extreme weather events. Students in the Climate READY Ambassador Institute (Summer Semester 1) built climate knowledge, explored NOAA technology, engaged with scientists and resilience experts, developed communication and advocacy skills, and learned about local resilience solutions. An Afterschool Mentorship (Fall Semester 2) component paired new Climate READY Ambassadors with fourth- and fifth- grade afterschool students to build community resilience awareness through the creation of storybooks. Lastly, Community Outreach (Spring Semester 3) provided ways to share local resilience strategies at public events and promoted civic engagement in climate solutions. Data were collected from students in the form of pre- and post-assessment questionnaires during the 2022–2023 academic year. Summative statistics were analyzed for climate science knowledge, self-identity, self-efficacy, and sense of place. Students felt more prepared, confident, and able to communicate within their communities about climate change and many demonstrated a significantly better understanding of climate science concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most oligotrophic regions of the oceans, and nutrients have been shown to limit both phytoplankton and bacterial activities, resulting in a potential major role of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export in the biological pump. Strong DOC accumulation in surface waters is already well documented, though measurements of DOC stocks and export flux are still sparse and associated with major uncertainties. This study provides the first basin-scale overview and analysis of organic carbon stocks and export fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea through a modeling approach based on a coupled model combining a mechanistic biogeochemical model (Eco3MMED) and a high-resolution (eddy-resolving) hydrodynamic simulation (NEMO-MED12). The model is shown to reproduce the main spatial and seasonal biogeochemical characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea. Model estimations of carbon export are also of the same order of magnitude as estimations from in situ observations, and their respective spatial patterns are mutually consistent. Strong differences between the western and eastern basins are evidenced by the model for organic carbon export. Though less oligotrophic than the eastern basin, the western basin only supports 39% of organic carbon (particulate and dissolved) export. Another major result is that except for the Alboran Sea, the DOC contribution to organic carbon export is higher than that of particulate organic carbon (POC) throughout the Mediterranean Sea, especially in the eastern basin. This paper also investigates the seasonality of DOC and POC exports as well as the differences in the processes involved in DOC and POC exports in light of intracellular quotas. Finally, according to the model, strong phosphate limitation of both bacteria and phytoplankton growth is one of the main drivers of DOC accumulation and therefore of export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific consensus has emerged that emissions from economically important human activities worldwide are accelerating the impacts of climate change, with profound consequences for national economies and ecosystems. In recent years, official documents of many governments have acknowledged that environmental changes present security challenges. This paper highlights some of the challenges environmental security poses for traditional security concepts. It concludes that current institutions and policy paradigms are ill-equipped to manage these challenges and explores the potential for reframing the concept of "security" in ways that help decision-makers devise pluralistic and resilient societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change research demands a convergence among academic disciplines to understand complex changes in Earth system function. Limitations related to data usability and computing infrastructure, however, present barriers to effective use of the research tools needed for this cross-disciplinary collaboration. To address these barriers, we created a computational platform that pairs meteorological data and site-level ecosystem characterizations from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) with the Community Terrestrial System Model (CTSM) that is developed with university partners at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This NCAR–NEON system features a simplified user interface that facilitates access to and use of NEON observations and NCAR models. We present preliminary results that compare observed NEON fluxes with CTSM simulations and describe how the collaboration between NCAR and NEON that can be used by the global change research community improves both the data and model. Beyond datasets and computing, the NCAR–NEON system includes tutorials and visualization tools that facilitate interaction with observational and model datasets and further enable opportunities for teaching and research. By expanding access to data, models, and computing, cyberinfrastructure tools like the NCAR–NEON system will accelerate integration across ecology and climate science disciplines to advance understanding in Earth system science and global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate is changing, yet to which degree and in what pattern remains uncertain in many areas. In forest science, mainly impacts of long-term mean changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are studied. This paper therefore presents a sensitivity analysis to determine the importance of accounting for variability changes. A 10*10 matrix of different mean annual temperatures and precipitation sums is set up, covering the temperate forest zone of Europe, and the current level of several ecosystem services (ES) is calculated. Subsequently, mean and variability of temperature and precipitation distributions are changed in different steps, and new ES levels calculated. The results show that for the study of climate change impacts on forest ES, climate parameter variability is of secondary importance. The trends are well represented with scenarios of mean climate parameter changes only; however, on moisture-limited and heat-stressed sites impacts of changes in variability gain in importance. Most of these impacts are negative, and can be observed not only in monocultures already at their physiological limit, but also in diverse stands. Different ES, however, show different sensitivities towards changes in mean and variability, underlining the need to develop adaptation measures tailored to the sites and ES of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Land use caused by human socioeconomic activities is a driver of change in the global environment. To understand and quantify land‐use change on Earth's natural systems, interdisciplinary approaches linking biophysical and socioeconomic parameters are required. One approach to understand the degree of terrestrial colonization of the biosphere is using the human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP). HANPP is defined as the difference between the net primary productivity (NPP) of potential vegetation and the actual NPP for a given area of land. Here, we use HANPP as a lens to examine land‐use change in India from 1700 to 2007 using a spatially explicit data set that extends over this period. We also used the nongridded, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data set to calculate HANPP for India from 1961 to 2012 and compared our results. The average potential NPP for India was estimated to be 664 grams of carbon per square meter per year (g C/m2/year). Between 1700 and 2012, the fraction of pastureland and cropland increased from 20% to almost 60%. HANPP as a fraction of the potential NPP increased from 29% to 73% over this period. Calculations of HANPP using the FAO data set yielded an increase from 600 g C/m2 to just over 700 g C/m2 between 1961 and 2012. We also calculated the embodied HANPP of India by considering imports and exports, but the difference between the two is negligible in comparison to the HANPP of India. We further examined the variation of HANPP with socioeconomic parameters such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and population density. There was a roughly negative trend of HANPP with HDI. HANPP roughly increases with population density and then plateaus above a population density of roughly 200 persons per square kilometer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Reviews the current state of global catastrophic climate risk research and highlights areas for improvement. • Combines recent developments in GCR research into an analytical framework that could be applied to climate change. • Applies this framework to combine diverse evidence and gain new insights into the assessment and management of climate risk. • Describes the concept of a Global System Death Spiral: reinforcing feedback between ecological and socioecological collapses. • Maps out the risk mitigation space for climate induced GCR and identifies key opportunities and challenges. Many have claimed that climate change is an imminent threat to humanity, but there is no way to verify such claims. This is concerning, especially given the prominence of some of these claims and the fact that they are confused with other well verified and settled aspects of climate science. This paper seeks to build an analytical framework to help explore climate change's contribution to Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR), including the role of its indirect and systemic impacts. In doing so it evaluates the current state of knowledge about catastrophic climate change and integrates this with a suite of conceptual and evaluative tools that have recently been developed by scholars of GCR and Existential Risk. These tools connect GCR to planetary boundaries, classify its key features, and place it in a global policy context. While the goal of this paper is limited to producing a framework for assessment; we argue that applying this framework can yield new insights into how climate change could cause global catastrophes and how to manage this risk. We illustrate this by using our framework to describe the novel concept of possible' global systems death spirals,' involving reinforcing feedback between collapsing sociotechnological and ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews current parameterizations developed and implemented within Computational Fluid Dynamics models for the study of the effects linking vegetation, mainly trees, to urban air quality and thermal conditions. In the literature, passive mitigation via deposition is parametrized as a volumetric sink term in the transport equation of pollutants, while a volumetric source term is used for particle resuspension. The aerodynamics effects are modelled via source and sink terms of momentum, turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent dissipation rate. A volumetric cooling power is finally considered to account for the thermal (transpirational cooling) effects of vegetation. The most recent applications are also summarized with a focus on the relative importance of both aerodynamic and deposition effects, together with recent studies evaluating thermal effects. Those studies have shown that the aerodynamic effects of trees are stronger than the positive effects of deposition, however locally the pollutant concentration increases or decreases depending on the complex inter-relation between local factors such as vegetation type and density, meteorological conditions, street geometry, pollutant characteristics and emission rates. Unlike aerodynamic and deposition effects on pollutant dispersion which were also found in street far from trees, the thermal effects were in general locally restricted to the close vicinity of the vegetation and to the street canyon itself. Future requirements in CFD modelling include more in depth investigation of resuspension and thermal effects, as well as of the VOCs emissions and chemical reactions. The overall objective of this review is to provide the scientific community with a comprehensive summary on the current parameterizations of urban vegetation in CFD modelling and constitutes the starting point for the development of new parametrizations in CFD as well as in mesoscale models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress induce anomalies in ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP). We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30 year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy-covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they down-regulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction of the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco, and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a down-regulation after about two weeks. This confirms earlier theories that not only the magnitude but also the duration of an extreme event determines its impact. Our study corroborates the results of several local site-level case studies, but as a novelty generalizes these findings at the global scale. Specifically, we find that the different response functions of the two antipodal land-atmosphere fluxes GPP and Reco can also result in increasing NEP during certain extreme conditions. Apparently counterintuitive findings of this kind bear great potential for scrutinizing the mechanisms implemented in state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models and provide a benchmark for future model development and testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Philippines' vulnerability to climate change necessitates the adoption of strategies to strengthen the most vulnerable sectors and diminish severe climate change impacts in the future. This study assessed the implications of recent findings of climate change science on the country's Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) 10 priority programs through a landscape and ecosystem-based approach. The assessment was done by defining the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems through a comprehensive review of relevant literature at the global to national scale, as well as the development of a framework for assessing the climate responsiveness of programs. Using a set of 12 criteria for climate responsiveness and a four-point rating scale (0/none to 3/high), the programs were assessed through a literature and document review, conduct of a series of workshops, and interviews and self-rating surveys with key actors, such as officers of the divisions and attached agencies of DENR. Results of the assessment showed that most of DENR's programs were found to have low ratings in terms of flexibility, a longterm scope of impacts, the ability to address interconnected risks and vulnerabilities, the ability to stimulate migration to green development pathways, and the promotion of incremental and transformational adaptation. To improve the ratings, it is recommended that decision support systems be developed, and plans and programs be integrated and harmonized through multiagency/ multi-stakeholder collaboration and a robust system for developing climate-responsive policies -- including the National Land Use Act, Sustainable Forest Management, Payment for Environmental Services, and the Carbon Offset Law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity loss and climate change are both globally significant issues that must be addressed through collaboration across countries and disciplines. With the December 2015 COP21 climate conference in Paris and the recent creation of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), it has become critical to evaluate the capacity for global research networks to develop at the interface between biodiversity and climate change. In the context of the European Union (EU) strategy to stand as a world leader in tackling global challenges, the European Commission has promoted ties between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in science, technology and innovation. However, it is not clear how these significant interactions impact scientific cooperation at the interface of biodiversity and climate change. We looked at research collaborations between two major regions—the European Research Area (ERA) and LAC—that addressed both biodiversity and climate change. We analysed the temporal evolution of these collaborations, whether they were led by ERA or LAC teams, and which research domains they covered. We surveyed publications listed on the Web of Science that were authored by researchers from both the ERA and LAC and that were published between 2003 and 2013. We also run similar analyses on other topics and other continents to provide baseline comparisons. Our results revealed a steady increase in scientific co-authorships between ERA and LAC countries as a result of the increasingly complex web of relationships that has been weaved among scientists from the two regions. The ERA-LAC co-authorship increase for biodiversity and climate change was higher than those reported for other topics and for collaboration with other continents. We also found strong differences in international collaboration patterns within the LAC: co-publications were fewest from researchers in low- and lower-middle-income countries and most prevalent from researchers in emerging countries like Mexico and Brazil. Overall, interdisciplinary publications represented 25.8% of all publications at the interface of biodiversity and climate change in the ERA-LAC network. Further scientific collaborations should be promoted 1) to prevent less developed countries from being isolated from the global cooperation network, 2) to ensure that scientists from these countries are trained to lead visible and recognized biodiversity and climate change research, and 3) to develop common study models that better integrate multiple scientific disciplines and better support decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research (CCE-LTER) site has been in existence since 2004. One of its primary objectives is to understand the response of the southern California Current ecosystem to climate forcing. The CCE-LTER site cooperates with the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) program and complements CalCOFI׳s work through more extensive observations, process studies, and a modeling program. This special issue is focused on the long-term observations made by the CCE-LTER and CalCOFI programs, describing and understanding long-term changes in the physical, chemical, and biotic environment in the region. The papers in this issue highlight the climatological conditions during recent years and employ modeling to diagnose the principal forcing of meridional currents and eddy transport, both of which affect biotic responses. Changes in source waters in the region, and altered flushing of the Santa Barbara Basin, are considered. Temporal variations in inherent optical properties and in higher trophic levels, including seabirds and marine mammals, are presented. Key methodological developments presented include the incorporation of subsurface phytoplankton and light distributions in order to improve remotely sensed measures of primary production, and the validation of multi-frequency acoustic estimates of mesopelagic fish biomass. Results also highlight significant spatial differences across the CCE-LTER region, including cross-shore trends in microbial assemblages, and glider-resolved frontal features and zones of mixing associated with abrupt topography. Alterations to the spatial structure of the pelagic ecosystem must also be considered when evaluating future climate-related changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands contain large amount of carbon stock that is vulnerable to release into the atmosphere. Mostly because of human impact, the peatlands at Zoige Wetlands face severe degradation, and the groundwater table is now lower than before, which has increased the population of the plateau zokor, a burrowing rodent. However, the impact of these changes on ecosystem carbon flows has not been studied. To investigate how the plateau zokor and the groundwater level alter the ecosystem respiration of the Zoige peatlands, we sampled the CO2 flux of hummocks shaped by the zokors and compared it with the CO2 flux of undisturbed sites with different groundwater table levels. The soil organic carbon (SOC), soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature at 5 cm (T5) were measured. SOC showed no significant difference among the four sampling sites and did not correlate with the CO2 flux, while SWC was found to partly determine the CO2 flux. A linear equation could adequately describe the relationship between the natural logarithm of the ecosystem respiration and the soil temperature. It is demonstrated that descending groundwater table might accelerate ecosystem respiration and the CO2 flux from hummocks was higher than the CO2 flux from the control site in the non-growing season. With rising temperature, the CO2 flux from the control site accelerated faster than that from the hummocks. Our results show that ecosystem respiration was significantly lower from hummocks than at the control site in the growing season. The results on the impact of zokors on greenhouse gas emissions presented in this paper provide a useful reference to help properly manage not only this, but other litter-burrowing mammals at peatland sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The provision of freshwater is essential for sustaining human life. Understanding the water provision modelling associated with the Land Use/Cover (LUC) change and climatic factors is vital for landscape water resource management. The Winike watershed is the largest tributary in the upper Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia. This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal change in the water yield to investigate the water yield contribution from the watershed based on the variation in input parameters. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Tool (InVEST) water yield model was used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of the water yield in different years (1988, 1998, 2008 and 2018). The data required for this model include LUC data from satellite images, reference evapotranspiration, root depth, plant available water, precipitation, season factor (Z), and a biophysical table. The analysis of LUC change shows a rapid conversion of grazing land, shrubland, and forest land into cultivated land. There has been a significant variation in water provision, which increased from 1.83 × 109 m3 in 1988 to 3.35 × 109 m3 in 2018. Sub-watersheds 31, 32, and 39 in the eastern part of the watershed contributed more water due to higher precipitation and lower reference evapotranspiration. The major increase in the contribution of water yield was in built-up land by 207.4%, followed by bare land, 148.54%, and forest land by 63%. Precipitation had a greater impact on water yield estimation compared with the other input parameters. Hence, this research helps decision-makers to make informed decisions regarding new policies for LUC change improvement to maintain the water resources in the Winike watershed. Highlights: Spatiotemporal changes in water yield from 1988 to 2018 were investigated. The water yield of each LUC was analyzed using the InVEST model. The main driver of increased water yield is climate factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide, alien species invasion already constitutes to be a major threat to the biodiversity of various ecosystems, particularly in freshwater ecosystems, and with a warming of the climate, the range of habitats suitable for its establishment may increase further. Though it is possible to manage invasive aquatic species in small invaded areas by physical removal, use of barriers or biocides, and environmental modifications, once established and widely distributed, the eradication of invasive species often becomes impractical. To date, biological control is considered the prime realistic option for controlling well established and widely distributed invasive species. But the application of classical biological control methods using unmodified living organisms (predator, parasite or pathogen) to control target populations of alien fishes is very limited to date, mainly because of the difficulties in finding suitable agents. Recent advances in genetic technologies, like chromosome set manipulations or recombinant DNA techniques, or a combination of both techniques provide opportunities that could be used for the control and eradication of individual invasive species. Approaches like sterilemale, super male, female lethal, bisex-lethal, trojan female, sex-reversed trojan female, neo female, daughterless technology, and CRISPR/CAS9 -- gene editing are considered far more species-specific than mechanical or chemical methods, and also effecient and cost-effective. However, just a few trials of some of these methods have been undertaken in the field to date, and hence there is still a long way to go before tuning genetic biocontrol approaches into an on-field reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Across temperate North America, interannual variability (IAV) in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and their relationship with environmental drivers are poorly understood. Here, we examine IAV in GPP and NEE and their relationship to environmental drivers using two state‐of‐the‐science flux products: NEE constrained by surface and space‐based atmospheric CO2 measurements over 2010–2015 and satellite up‐scaled GPP from FluxSat over 2001–2017. We show that the arid western half of temperate North America provides a larger contribution to IAV in GPP (104% of east) and NEE (127% of east) than the eastern half, in spite of smaller magnitude of annual mean GPP and NEE. This occurs because anomalies in western ecosystems are temporally coherent across the growing season leading to an amplification of GPP and NEE. In contrast, IAV in GPP and NEE in eastern ecosystems is dominated by seasonal compensation effects, associated with opposite responses to temperature anomalies in spring and summer. Terrestrial biosphere models in the MsTMIP ensemble generally capture these differences between eastern and western temperate North America, although there is considerable spread between models. Key Points: GPP and NEE IAV in western temperate North America is characterized by amplification, with enhance uptake in cooler‐wetter conditionsGPP and NEE IAV in eastern temperate North America is characterized by compensating anomalies between spring and summerThe MsTMIP models generally capture these east‐west differences in NEE and GPP IAV [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers are increasingly being asked to integrate climate change adaptation into public land management. The literature discusses a range of adaptation approaches, including managing for resistance, resilience, and transformation; but many strategies have not yet been widely tested. This study employed in-depth interviews and scenario-based focus groups in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Colorado to learn how public land managers envision future ecosystem change, and how they plan to utilize different management approaches in the context of climate adaptation. While many managers evoked the past in thinking about projected climate impacts and potential responses, most managers in this study acknowledged and even embraced (if reluctantly) that many ecosystems will experience regime shifts in the face of climate change. However, accepting that future ecosystems will be different from past ecosystems led managers in different directions regarding how to respond and the appropriate role of management intervention. Some felt management actions should assist and even guide ecosystems toward future conditions. Others were less confident in projections and argued against transformation. Finally, some suggested that resilience could provide a middle path, allowing managers to help ecosystems adapt to change without predicting future ecosystem states. Scalar challenges and institutional constraints also influenced how managers thought about adaptation. Lack of institutional capacity was believed to constrain adaptation at larger scales. Resistance, in particular, was considered impractical at almost any scale due to institutional constraints. Managers negotiated scalar challenges and institutional constraints by nesting different approaches both spatially and temporally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the market-based strategy to shift the global food production system that adversely affects climate stability and ecosystem resilience. Also cited are the planned shift to plant-based meat from animal-based meat, the biotechnology processes in plant-based meat, genetically-modified organisms (GMO), bioengineered (BE) food, and genetic engineering (GE).

The transport of warm Atlantic Waters north of Svalbard is one of the major heat and salt sources to the Arctic Ocean. The circulation pathways and the associated heat transport influence the variability in the Arctic sea ice extent, the onset of freezing, and marine ecosystems. We present observations obtained from research cruises and an autonomous underwater glider mission in summer and fall 2018, to describe the hydrographic structure, volume transport, and circulation patterns of the warm Atlantic Water Boundary Current between 12°E and 24°E north of Svalbard. The Atlantic Water volume transport reaches a maximum of 3.0 ± 0.2 Sv in October, with an intraseasonal variability of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). During summer and late fall, we observed an Atlantic Water recirculation flowing westward (0.1–0.2 Sv) in the outer part of the section away from the shelf break. This counter current appears to be a part of an anticyclonic circulation in the Sofia Deep. The strength of the Atlantic Water recirculation and the Atlantic Water boundary current is very sensitive to the wind stress curl: The boundary current volume transport doubled in less than a week, corresponding to a transition from strongly negative (−10−6 N m−3) to strongly positive (10−6 N m−3) wind stress curl over the Sofia Deep. A previously unknown, deep bottom‐intensified current is observed to flow parallel to the boundary current, between the 1,500 and 2,000 m isobaths. Historical data in the region support the presence of the bottom‐intensified current. Plain Language Summary: Atlantic Water enters the Arctic Ocean along two pathways, through the Barents Sea and through Fram Strait west of Svalbard. Being warmer and saltier than the Arctic Ocean, the Atlantic Water is the main heat and salt source for the Arctic Ocean. The circulation pathways and the heat transported by the Atlantic Water influence the variability of the Arctic sea ice and the marine ecosystems. We present observations from research cruises and an autonomous underwater glider mission in summer and fall 2018, to describe the Atlantic Water structure and circulation between 12°E and 24°E north of Svalbard (an extension of the Fram Strait inflow). The Atlantic Water volume transport reaches a maximum of 3.0 ± 0.2 Sv in October, with an intraseasonal variability of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). During summer and late fall, we observed Atlantic Water flowing westward (a counter current), north of the common eastward flowing Atlantic Water current. Observations suggest that the counter current is part of a clockwise circulation in the Sofia Deep, north of Svalbard. Our observations also reveal a previously undescribed deep, cold current flowing eastward into the Arctic Ocean. Historical data in the region support the presence of this deep current. Key Points: The average Atlantic Water inflow in summer and fall 2018 was 2.6 Sv, reaching 3 Sv in OctoberA recirculation in the Sofia Deep transports (0.1–0.2 Sv) Atlantic Water westwardA deep, bottom‐intensified current on the lower continental slope carries cold waters into the Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton are an essential component of the Arctic Ocean ecosystem and carbon cycle. Especially after sea ice retreats and light becomes more available to the Arctic Ocean each summer, phytoplankton productivity is limited by nutrient availability, which can be replenished by vertical mixing of the water column. One potential mixing mechanism is gale‐force wind associated with summer storm activity. Past studies show that sustained high winds (>10 m s−1) impart sufficient stress on the ocean surface to induce vertical mixing, and it has been speculated that greater storm activity may increase net primary productivity (NPP) on a year‐to‐year timescale. We test this idea using a combination of satellite products and reanalysis data from 1998 to 2018. After controlling for the amount of open water, sea‐surface temperature, and wind direction, we find evidence that greater frequency of high‐wind events in summer is associated with greater seasonal NPP in the Barents, Laptev, East Siberian, and southern Chukchi Seas. This relationship is only robust for the Barents and southern Chukchi Seas, which are more strongly impacted by inflow of relatively nutrient‐rich water from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, respectively. In other words, stormier summers may have higher productivity in several regions of the Arctic Ocean, but especially the two inflow seas. Additionally, a recent rise in high‐wind frequency in the Barents Sea may have contributed to the simultaneous increase in NPP. Plain‐Language Summary: Microscopic phytoplankton are an essential component of the Arctic Ocean ecosystem because they are the base of the marine food web. Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean limits phytoplankton growth by reducing how much sunlight reaches the ocean surface, but sea ice is becoming less common in the Arctic Ocean over time. This increases the importance of another limit on phytoplankton: nutrients. Phytoplankton near the surface use up nutrients rapidly in spring, so summer growth is limited by the rate that nutrients are replenished. Past studies have shown that individual storms with strong winds can stir up enough nutrients from deeper waters to temporarily enhance phytoplankton activity. We find that this is not simply a localized or short‐term impact. Stormier summers tend to have higher productivity in several regions of the Arctic Ocean. We also find that the frequency of high‐wind events has increased in recent years, so although the decline in Arctic sea ice can explain much of the increase in phytoplankton growth over 1998–2018, an increase in storminess is also a likely part of the story. Key Points: Past studies suggest that wind‐induced mixing enhances Arctic Ocean phytoplankton productivity by increasing nutrient availabilityGreater frequency of summer high‐wind events is associated with enhanced NPP in the two inflow seas (Barents Sea and southern Chukchi Sea)Positive trend of NPP for the Barents Sea in recent years is partly explained by increased frequency of high‐wind events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic and climatic‐induced changes to flow regimes pose significant risks to river systems. Northern rivers and their deltas are particularly vulnerable due to the disproportionate warming of the Northern Hemisphere compared with the Southern Hemisphere. Of special interest is the Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) in western Canada, a productive deltaic lake and wetland ecosystem, which has been recognized as a Ramsar site. Both climate‐ and regulation‐induced changes to the hydrological regime of the Peace River have raised concerns over the delta's ecological health. With the damming of the headwaters, the role of downstream unregulated tributaries has become more important in maintaining, to a certain degree, a natural flow regime, particularly during open‐water conditions. However, their flow contributions to the mainstem river under future climatic conditions remain largely uncertain. In this study, we first evaluated the ability of a land‐surface hydrological model to simulate hydro‐ecological relevant indicators, highlighting the model's strengths and weaknesses. Then, we investigated the streamflow conditions in the Smoky River, the largest unregulated tributary of the Peace River, in the 2071–2100 versus the 1981–2010 periods. Our modelling results revealed significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Smoky River, such as increased discharge in winter (+190%) and spring (+130%) but reduced summer flows (−33%) in the 2071–2100 period compared with the baseline period, which will have implications for the sustainability of the downstream PAD. In particular, the projected reductions in 30‐day and 90‐day maximum flows in the Smoky River will affect open‐water flooding, which is important in maintaining lake levels and connectivity to perimeter delta wetlands in the Peace sector of the PAD. The evaluation of breakup and freeze‐up flows for the 2071–2100 period showed mixed implications for the ice‐jam flooding, which is essential for recharging high‐elevation deltaic basins. Thus, despite projected increase in annual and spring runoff in the 2071–2100 period from the Smoky sub‐basin, the sustainability of the PAD still remains uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]