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Purpose: The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country's Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants. Design/methodology/approach: Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated. Findings: One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors. Research limitations/implications: This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects. Originality/value: An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper hypothesizes that the structure of macroeconomic governance with its financial and non-financial dynamics is, among other things, a key determinant of economic performance, taking the case of the United States from 1952Q1 to 2018Q4. The paper tests its hypothesis by developing three modes of macroeconomic governance based on complementarities and a time-series model to be used for the empirical analysis of these modes and by using a linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration model. In so doing, the paper compares five periods between 1952Q1 and 2018Q4 using the same time-series model to illustrate how the changing structure of macroeconomic governance affects long-term economic performance over time. The paper reaches three conclusions. First, higher economic performance in 1952Q1–1968Q3 originates in, among other things, a systemic mode of macroeconomic governance. Second, lower economic performance in the three sub-periods between 1968Q4 and 2008Q2 is due to a fragmented mode of macroeconomic governance. Third, the sharp decline in economic performance in 2008Q3–2018Q4 originates in the outbreak and deepening of a structural trap due to long-run structural fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of total assets, stock performances, CEOs’ tenures, ages, and board sizes on total CEO compensations of 249 publicly listed US companies over a nine-year period from 2004-2012.Design/methodology/approach Pedroni’s panel cointegration, generalized method of moments, and dynamic ordinary least squares methodologies are applied.Findings All variables are non-stationary in log-levels. The findings show significant positive effects of total assets and stock performances on total CEO compensations. The effects of CEO’s tenure and age as well as board size on total CEO compensation deem negative. However, short-run net interactive feedback effects are generally positive with some exceptions.Research limitations/implications The above variables matter in rewarding the CEOs. They should be carefully weighed in for proper formulation of CEO compensation policy.Originality/value This paper applies relatively new econometric tools for a large panel data set. This work considers some new variables for determining CEO compensation in USA. The findings are relatively new with empirical originality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper observes effect of money supply on the stock market through the portfolio balance channel as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy. National flow of funds accounts, specifically assets from US households' portfolios, represent a key data source. Johansen's cointegration methodology is employed in the empirical part of the paper to analyze both short term and long term relationships among researched variables. Estimates of vector error correction model help to reliably quantify intensity of the effect. Results show money supply excercises influence on valuation of S&P 500 index with 6 months lag. The impact is also distinguishable in the long run, whereas all observed asset classes can positively influence price of S&P 500. Findings are then contextualized in the concluding part of the paper using a monetary policy framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of fiscal sustainability has become increasingly used over the last 20 years. However, much of the literature on fiscal sustainability at the sub-national level ignores the role of intergovernmental fiscal relations. To address this gap, this paper discusses a sufficient condition for sub-national fiscal sustainability and examines the importance of intergovernmental aid in determining that sustainability. Using panel data of counties and municipalities in the US, and using unit root and cointegration analytic techniques, this paper finds different levels of fiscal sustainability between counties and municipalities. We also find that intergovernmental aid plays an important role for fiscal sustainability for both counties and municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates theoretical implications from a new Keynesian model focusing on the labor market, by imposing them as testable restrictions in an estimated vector error correction model on US data from 1982Q3 to 2016Q1. By this, I conduct an important, but rarely addressed, step in assessing the empirical relevance of a theoretical new Keynesian model. Another advantage of this approach is that the cycle and trend components of the data are separated when imposing the testable restrictions, such that there is no need to filter the data series prior to estimation. The results show that most of the properties pertaining to the theoretical model cannot be rejected when imposed as restrictions. The new Keynesian model on the labor market is thus found to be empirically relevant. Furthermore, the estimated econometric model explains a large degree of the wage and price dynamics in the USA, such that the paper also provides an estimated macroeconometric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many papers in the housing literature treat the intertemporal evolution of the logarithm of US real house prices as a unit root process. They also study the cointegration relationship among the logarithm of real house prices and fundamental economic variables such as income and they apply an error correction specification for modeling and forecasting real house prices. This paper argues that the logarithm of US real house price is not a unit root process. Instead, the evidence from a 120-year national dataset and metro area level and state level panel data sets supports the notion that US house prices are trend stationary. One result of this conclusion is that the validity of analyses of US house prices based on cointegration and error correction models needs to be reconsidered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, health economists, experts in population studies, and policy makers seek to understand the important factors that augment life expectancy. This paper attempts to identify empirically effects of some major determinants on life expectancy in the United States during the period 1960-2012. Recently developed powerful methods of unit root testing and cointegration analysis, Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. Economet Theor, 25, 1754-1792, (2009), Perron and Yabu J Bus Econ Stat, 27, 369-96, (2009), Kejriwal and Perron J Econ, 146(1), 59-73, (2008), Kejriwal and Perron J Bus Econ Stat, 28(4), 503-522, (2010a), and Maki Econ Model, 29(5), 2011-2015, (2012) that allow for the presence of structural shifts, are employed. The papers’ findings reveal that the level of real per capita income and the level of educational attainment are the factors that affect the level of life expectancy most. Other factors such as the level of real health expenditure per capita and any measure of income inequality, although important, were found to be highly collinear with real per capita income. The policy implications of the results of the paper are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the degree of market integration between several product forms of US wild salmon and Norwegian farmed salmon. While several studies have investigated the link between farmed salmon and fresh and/or frozen wild salmon markets, we expand the literature with the inclusion of the products canned salmon and salmon roe. Understanding how canned salmon and salmon roe are related to the broader salmon market is of importance to US fisheries, as these products are high-price exports for the United States. Our results find evidence of cointegration between the Norwegian farmed salmon market and all US salmon products. Domestic and international economic conditions, such as production technological advances within farmed salmon production, environmental challenges, and changes in trade regulations, which affect the market for farmed salmon, will hence also influence US prices of frozen and canned salmon, as well as salmon roe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyse the demand for real money balances in the United States for the period 1990Q1–2017Q2 using a novel Divisia monetary aggregate developed by Barnett et al. (2013). Unlike simple-sum aggregates, Divisia aggregates take into account the different degrees of 'moneyness' of each monetary asset. In addition, Divisia aggregates have shown to be empirically superior to simple-sum aggregates, providing stable money demand functions for different periods and countries. In a first stage, we test for cointegration and estimate a long-run equilibrium model. In a second stage, we estimate an error correction model to study the short-run dynamics. Consistent with previous research, our findings show the existence of a stable money demand function, which suggests that monetary aggregates, when properly measured, can be useful tools in the conduct of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a long-run study of the relationship between autonomous and induced demand for the United States. Our exercise can be considered a contribution to the burgeoning literature revolving around autonomous demand-led growth models, which have displayed the potential to establish bridges not only within the post-Keynesian community, but also between post-Keynesian economics and other evolutionary and pluralistic approaches to economic growth. In particular, we study the long-run dynamic relationship between autonomous demand – which comprises R&D expenditures, government spending, exports and residential investment – and induced demand. Through a cointegration model with quantile-varying coefficients, we account for the possibility of changes in the relationship between the two variables and demonstrate that the long-run equilibrium relationship between autonomous and induced demand is robust to exogenous shocks and changes in the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have tested semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models using different methodological approaches. This paper critically reviews these studies including their approaches and provides new evidence on this issue, by analyzing both time-series data from the United States and panel data from 19 OECD countries over the period 1980–2014. The review finds much support for Schumpeterian growth theory, but shows that all studies reviewed have several limitations. These limitations include conceptual problems associated with the use of the number/stock of patents as a measure of the flow/stock of knowledge, the possibility of spurious regressions due to non-stationary data, potential mismeasurement of R&D inputs due to possible interpolation and deflation errors, misspecification problems that can arise in difference models when variables are cointegrated, and potential spurious rejections of the unit root hypothesis for R&D intensity when the lag length in unit root tests is too small. The present study avoids these limitations and finds strong evidence in favor of semi-endogenous growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the buffered autoregressive model to the buffered vector error-correction model (VECM). Least squares estimation and a reduced-rank estimation are discussed, and the consistency of the estimators on the delay parameter and threshold parameters is derived. We also propose a supWald test for the presence of buffer-type threshold effect. Under the null hypothesis of no threshold, the supWald test statistic converges to a function of Gaussian process. A bootstrap method is proposed to obtain the p-value for the supWald test. We investigate the effectiveness of our methods by simulation studies. We apply our model to study the monthly Federal bond rates of United States. We find the evidences of buffering regimes and the asymmetric error-correction effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first aims to reinvestigate the issue of US fiscal sustainability by using the quantile cointegration approach proposed by Xiao (2009 and 2012). Our empirical evidence indicates a quantile-dependent cointegrating relationship between government expenditures and revenues. In addition, this paper examines the long-run causality relationship between expenditures and revenues by using the vector error-correction (VEC) model with coefficients based on the different quantiles. Findings from the long-run Granger-causality analyses support the spend-and-tax hypothesis. Our investigation suggests that the government should show more discretion in increasing expenditures in the long run. Moreover, budget deficit reduction can only be achieved through reductions in government expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hurricane Katrina (2005) was the most devastating natural disaster in US history since San Francisco in 1906. A budding literature on disasters and trade suggests that while the impact of natural disasters on small and/or developing countries is significant, the effects on developed countries is not significant. This paper adds to the literature by focusing on a single event for a developed country, the US. In so doing, the aggregation problems of panel studies of many disasters over many countries is avoided. The results suggest that while terrible, Katrina's effect on US imports was not statistically significant. Estimates of the long-run cointegrating relationship of import demand detected neither the presence of extraordinarily more nor less imports during the period studied (1983:1 to 2008:2). Small, short-run decreases, then increases, can be attributed to the direct effect of a small decline in overall economic activity alone. Recent estimates for income and price elasticities are also obtained and the results compared to other recent shocks, namely, the mild recession of 1990-1991 and the recession and trade collapse in 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to explore the nature of the association and the possible existence of a shortrun and long-run relationship between the stock-market indices of South Africa, India and the USA. The idea behind this combination is to know how the stock markets of these three prominent countries are related to each other. The study employs monthly data from the stock indices, namely JALSH (South Africa), NIFTY (India) and NASDAQ (USA) composite from April 2004 to March 2014. After testing for the normality of the data distribution and the stationarity of the time series data, this paper discovered a strong correlation between the stock market indices of South Africa, India and the USA. The correlation among the stock markets is high, particularly between South Africa and India. In addition, the paper attempts to discover the presence of any predictive ability among these markets by applying the Granger causality test. The result indicates that the NASDAQ index has no predictive ability as far as the JALSH and NIFTY indices are concerned. However, the JALSH index has a predictive ability on the NIFTY index. After testing the Granger cause relationship, the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship is tested. The long-run relationships among the stock market indices are analysed, following the Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach. The result suggests the absence of a long-run relationship among the three stock market indices. Short-run relationship is investigated with the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, and the outcome obtained shows that both the USA and the South African stock markets are predicted only by their own past lags. However, the Indian stock market is seen to be a function of its own past lags and the past lags of the South African stock index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies annual data from 1962 to 2011 to investigate the long run relationship between government spending and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The common approach only considers defense government spending to estimate the multiplier to overcome the identification problem and endogeneity in isolating the effect of changes in government spending on GDP, I use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, which works despite having endogenous regressors to estimate the spending multiplier. The results confirm that government spending can be treated as a 'long-run forcing' variable for the explanation of real GDP and the long-run multiplier is found to be 1.94. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of house price changes and a few other macroeconomic variables on durable and non-durable consumption separately. The study considers the nonlinear panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach (Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation (Pesaran, 1997; Pesaran et al., 1999)) for cointegration and error-correction modeling, and uses annual data from fifty states of the U.S. The results show that changes in house prices have asymmetric effects on both durable and non-durable consumption in the long run. To dig deeper into the relationship between house price and consumption, I divide the fifty U.S. states into three categories: high-, middle- and low-income states. This helps to examine how the responsiveness of durable and non-durable consumption varies across these three categories. The findings show that the low-income states are affected more by changes in house prices than that of the high- and middle-income states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the dynamic interactions of the ethanol, crude oil and corn market prices in the United States from January 2005 up to December 2014. The empirical analysis, for the shake of robustness, employs alternative time series methodologies based on single equation and system estimation approaches to cointegration and more specifically, the autoregressive distributed lags and the Johansen ML cointegration methodologies were applied complementary. The findings reveal a statistically significant long-run causal effect running from crude oil and corn prices to ethanol price as well as from ethanol and corn prices to crude oil price. Additionally, a positive relationship between crude oil price and ethanol price was revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China and Germany are comparable in terms of having persistent trade surplus with the USA, but they differ in how their currencies are valued. By invoking the China–Germany comparison, this paper finds that there is weak, if any, statistical association between the US trade deficit and the exchange rate. This finding is robust to long-run vs. short-run horizon, without vs. with an instrumental variable, and in-sample fitting vs. out-of-sample forecasting. This paper predicts that the US trade deficits with China and Germany will continue to rise in the presence of a recovery in the US economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the nexus between Asian and the US short-term financing rates and compare them between pre- and post-Asian financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach: The short-term financing rate is used in the estimation by employing two-stage cointegration test. Findings: The result of the empirical study shows several outcomes; the short-term financing rates among the selected Asian countries are not highly correlated during pre-crisis period, but the rates become strongly associated during the post-crisis period. The US financing rate has significant influence on the Asian rate during both periods. Asian financing rates are not integrated by the influence of the USA, rather regional cooperation and financial initiatives lead the regional financing rate to be integrated. Originality/value: The empirical finding of the study offers significant policy implications for strengthening regional economic bonding and developing the financial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate four possible asymmetries in US aggregate consumption and its major components (durables, non-durables, and services) for the period 1990-2013. Understanding the asymmetric behavior of the components is important since the impact of monetary policy on separate consumer spending categories may differ substantially. Design/methodology/approach – The authors first employ stationarity and cointegration tests to specify and estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between consumer spending and such variables as disposable income, consumer sentiment, and the expected real interest rate. The authors then specify a structural error-correction model for each spending category to simultaneously investigate such possible asymmetries due to the ratchet effect, psychological negativity bias, interest rate effect, and varying degree of adjustment in eliminating disequilibrium defined as the gap between actual and desired spending. Findings – First, consumption and its major components all display asymmetric behavior consistent with psychological negativity bias. Second, consumer spending on durable goods also displays asymmetries consistent with both the ratchet effect and the interest rate effect. Third, non-durables respond asymmetrically to disequilibrium; consumers adjust (increase) spending on non-durables only when actual spending is below desired spending on non-durable goods. Fourth, services also respond asymmetrically to disequilibrium; consumers adjust (reduce) spending on services only when actual spending is above desired spending on services. Originality/value – This study provides new insight on the asymmetric behavior of consumer spending. The authors believe that the findings should help with macroeconomic policymaking when such indicators as income, consumer sentiment, and expected real interest rates display significant variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cohesive markets for pine sawtimber and pine pulpwood were identified across regions in the southeastern United States. Data were provided by TimberMart-South (TMS) and included 40 years of quarterly prices across 22 regions in 11 states. Markets were determined using the law of one-price cointegration while accounting for endogenous structural breaks. The resulting markets for pine pulpwood resulted in one major market spanning from northern Georgia to southern Texas (seven TMS regions) and four markets made up of two TMS regions. Pine sawtimber markets could be interpreted as nine minimarkets or six markets that were driven by three independent markets made up of the largest mill-capacity regions. Compared to earlier studies, the markets were more fractured. The timing of the endogenous breaks was consistent across regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically explores the short- and long-run effects of fiscal and monetary policies on US stock returns and tests the validity of market efficiency. The results support the presence of a strong long-run (equilibrium) relation binding stock prices with fiscal (but not monetary) policy. Further tests assign a dominant role to fiscal policy as a main force driving the overall equilibrium relation with the stock market. Estimates from error-correction models corroborate the existence of robust long-run relation and further suggest that past fiscal (but not monetary) policy actions exert significant short-run effects on current stock returns. A similar verdict emerged from alternative estimates in which fiscal policy actions anticipated from an ex ante equation continue to support a significant lagged relation with current stock returns. These results provide consistent evidence that important effects of fiscal policy are transmitted to the real economy through the stock market. Moreover, the results for fiscal policy appear at variance with market efficiency. However, transaction costs and other well-known modeling caveats may impede implications for profitable investment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes idiosyncratic and common determinants of commodity prices by adopting a time series-cross section approach. Different from the previous empirical literature, we allow for long-run and short-run effects, testing for cointegration and accounting for cross-dependence among different commodities. An automatic model selection algorithm is used to obtain a dominant congruent econometric model, selecting among many potential explanatory variables. As the effects of commodity prices’ determinants may vary over time and across commodities and we are estimating single conditional models, poolability and exogeneity issues are also evaluated. Our results indicate that commodity price formation in the long run is determined by supply and demand factors, apart from the US exchange rate. We find significant effects of individual commodity production and the demand-pull of China’s economy. The economic growth of both emerging and developed countries as well as the dollar’s depreciation, inventory changes, and easier monetary policies also have significant short-run effects on real commodity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, political rhetoric implying international trade hinder employment has gained momentum. We argue that the dynamics between the unemployment rate and the current account balance have both economic and political relevance. The presence of cointegration between the unemployment rate and the current account balance to GDP ratio and the nature of their short-run fluctuations will help us analyze the dynamics between the two objectively to evaluate the political rhetoric. We use quarterly data from 1948: Q1 to 2020: Q1 on the unemployment rate and current account balance to GDP ratio in the United States. Traditional cointegration tests fail to detect any cointegration. However, threshold cointegration tests confirm statistical evidence of threshold cointegration between the two. The estimated threshold vector error-correction model shows statistically significant evidence of falling unemployment rate coupled with deteriorating current account balance. This finding indicates that as unemployment rates go down, the current account balance deteriorates to maintain the long-run co-movement. Arguably, as the unemployment rate decline, concurrently imports rise faster than exports causing the current account balance to deteriorate. This finding thereby refutes the political rhetoric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the United States and United Kingdom. In contrast to the empirical literature, which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in the modeling process, we consider full model feedback, allowing for a thorough analysis of the system dynamics. The problem of model dimensionality is tackled by invoking the approach by Aoki (1981). Assuming country symmetry in the long run allows to decouple the two-country macrodynamics of country averages and differences such that the cointegration analysis can be applied to smaller systems. Second, the econometric modeling is general-to-specific, a graph-theoretic approach for the contemporaneous effects combined with automatic general-to-specific model selection. We find delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in the case of a Bank of England monetary shock but instantaneous response to a Fed shock. Altogether the response is more pronounced in the former case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We approach a significant research topic in international economics by restating the test procedures in a novel manner consistent with monetary theorems with controls using monetary variables and applying an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects of exchange rate behavior. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)? (ii) Do relative interest rates between countries affect a country's exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The data series for this study are taken over 55 years covering pre-and-post-Bretton Woods era: a second test was done over the post-Bretton Woods period only using 30 years of data. Also, the traditional factors of parity conditions are extended in this research to take into account recently theorized and tested non-parity factors related to cash flows. The resulting evidence affirms clearly that both the parity factors (prices and interest rates) and the non-parity factors affect exchange rates significantly over the long run, also over the 30-year period. In our view, these findings extend our knowledge of how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between biomass energy production and biomass energy consumption in the United States (US), over 1993M01-2022M08. For robustness reasons, it is employed the cointegration methodology to sustain the main findings in parallel with unit root tests of biomass energy surplus/deficit. The main results evidence a long-run equilibrium between biomass energy production and biomass energy consumption in the US conditioned by structural breaks. More precisely, those breaks can severally alter biomass energy sustainability, their importance being crucial in the US's policy design in the biomass sector. Policymakers in the US should take into account the structural changes for their adjustments in the biomass energy market when no long-run equilibrium between biomass energy production and the biomass energy consumption is evidenced. Otherwise, no policy corrections are needed as the long-run equilibrium is reached based on the market self-regulation mechanism. • Biomass energy is sustainable in the US. • Biomass energy sustainability is conditioned by structural changes. • No hysteresis is observed in biomass energy surplus/deficit. • Market of biomass energy has a self-regulation mechanism under sustainability assumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice is among the top seven U.S. major crops in terms of harvested acres - covering over 2.6 million acres - and sixth in terms of sales, with annual cash receipts around 3.1 billion dollars. This paper investigates whether U.S. milled rice markets are integrated across regions and whether these markets are integrated by rice types. Understanding dynamic relationships across regions and types provides important insights for risk management and policy making. Of the four major producing regions, three are in the South - Arkansas- Missouri, Louisiana-Mississippi, and Texas - and the other is California. There are different rice types associated with a production region. California mainly produces short and medium grain; while Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana primarily produce long and also medium grains. We determine the potential market integration of these rice markets by applying a Vector Error Correction Model and Directed Acyclic Graphs to monthly free on board milled rice price data from August 1986 to December 2015. Results suggest that Arkansas-Missouri region is the leading price reference in the long grain markets. Arkansas-Missouri medium grain also plays an important role in the medium grain markets. California medium grain markets are weakly exogenous in the short run, but affected by Arkansas-Missouri medium grain in the longer term. As anticipated, Arkansas-Missouri long grain milled rice markets are driven by rough rice futures price in the longer term. Interestingly, Arkansas-Missouri medium grain market has a sizable impact on long grain markets even though long and medium grains are not substitutes. This may be due to land competition to long grain rice production in Arkansas, a major area of long grain rice production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a newly developed LM unit root test based on residual augmented least squares (RALS) regression under structural break and Bayer–Hanck cointegration approach to explore the integrating properties and to check whether a long run relationship exists among energy demand, financial development, economic growth, foreign direct investment (hereafter FDI), trade and capital using the United States dataset spanning over a period of four decades of 1973q1–2014q4. The results reveal cointegration among the series. Also, we find that financial development, FDI and real GDP reduce energy demand, while energy demand is positively affected by trade and capital in the long run. Moreover, real GDP and capital have an inverse impact on energy demand, while financial development, FDI and trade stimulate energy demand in the short run. Using a recently introduced asymmetric causality test, the results show that real GDP, FDI, trade and capital Granger cause energy demand in the long run, while a feedback effect is found for FDI and trade. This study opens up new insights for policy makers to maintain financial development and sustain economic growth in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates fi nancial market integration among U.S. stock market and Turkish stock market using monthly data for the period of 1989 to 2015. The purpose of this article is to examine whether share prices of two countries showing a common trend. Using cointegration analysis, the study provides empirical evidence of common trends among for US and Turkey stock markets. The empirical results of the study highlighted that Turkish and US stock markets are strongly cointegrated and moving together in the long run. Furthermore, the results of Granger causality test confi rm the absence of weak causality. However, a uni-directional (strong Granger causality) was found from US stock market to Turkish stock market. The confi rmation of signifi cant error correction term also implies the evidence of a long-run relationship. The fi ndings of the study suggested that Turkish stock market which is the local market is strongly integrated with the US stock market. The reliability and stability of the estimations are confi rmed by diagnostic checks and CUSUM test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports evidence of a banking liquidity impact on stock prices in the three Asean countries. Banking liquidity impacts suggested by Friedman is yet to be fully investigated nor verified despite several attempts. If improved liquidity of banks leads to credit expansion, which in turn leads to more positive net present value projects undertaken by firms, earnings of the latter must go up, and hence the share prices should rise. This link is worth an investigation. According to an influential of the US stock market, up to 52% of share returns are due to changes in the macro economy. Using a 3-equation structural model as well as employing corrections for cross-section dependence, we examine the link between money supply, liquidity and stock prices over 2001:4Q and 2012:2Q in three developing countries. It is found money supply changes lead to a positive liquidity effect and banking liquidity impacts share market prices positively. These findings are new and in support of Friedman's liquidity proposition, and also constitute evidence of a banking liquidity having a positive effect on asset prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Classical theory postulates that there is a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment rates, numerous studies have shown that the relation between inflation and unemployment rates vary greatly across different sample periods, countries, estimation techniques and data sources. Due to the contrasting results obtained in previous studies, in this paper we investigate the short-run and long-run effects of unemployment rate, long-term interest rate, trade openness, budget deficit, money supply, economic growth rate and exchange rate on U.S. inflation rate over the period 1978-2014. The Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test is performed. The variables are found to be integrated of order one. We apply the bounds testing approach proposed by Pesaran et. al (2001). The Johansen and Juselius (1990) and the Engle-Granger (1987) tests show that the variables are cointegrated. The Granger F-test is applied to the vector error correction model to investigate causal relationships between different pairs of variables. Results indicate short-run unidirectional causalities from interest rate, trade openness, economic growth rate and exchange rate to inflation rate, from interest rate to unemployment rate, from economic growth rate to trade openness, and from unemployment rate, trade openness, budget deficit, economic growth rate and exchange rate to money supply. Long-run causality is observed when inflation rate is an endogenous variable. In cointegration analysis, the adjustment coefficient is found to be statistically insignificant; thus, the results are considered plausible only in the short-run. Long-term interest rate and trade openness are found to have significant positive short-run effects on inflation rate. No significant short-run trade-off is observed between inflation and unemployment rates. The results of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ) tests proposed by Borensztein et. al (1998) are within the critical bounds; thus all the coefficients in the error correction model are found to be stable. The diagnostic tests indicate that there is no evidence of serial correlation, and no problem of heteroscedasticity. The autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is not present in the short-run model. The test results also indicate that there is no problem of normality in error distribution. Based on the cointegration and causal analysis, we find no evidence to support a short-run Phillips curve for the U.S. economy for the period 1978-2014. A rise in inflation rate, due to a monetary expansion, is not found to have any significant short-run impact on unemployment rate in the U.S. economy for the sample period under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the long-run relationship between the US Dollar effective exchange rate and oil prices (WTI) over the period from January 1986 to August 2014. We allow for the relationship to be asymmetric by employing the hidden cointegration technique of Granger and Yoon (2002) and Schorderet (2004). The Quandt - Andrews approach allows accounting for structural breaks. The results reveal an asymmetric long-run relationship between the two markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although refugee resettlement remains a controversial issue, no attempt has yet been made to investigate the relationship between refugee inflow and crime rates in the United States, based on bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis with structural breaks. We argue that the first significant crime drop in the United States occurred prior to the 1990s—from 1980 to 1984—a period that witnessed a decline in refugee inflows following the enactment of the Refugee Act of 1980. We next investigate the sensitivity of total crime rate, violent crime rate, property crime rate and their sub-categories, namely, murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft to an increase in refugee inflow (% of total population) in the United States, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. The results strongly support the hypothesis that refugee inflow (% of total population) increases crime rates in all ten crime categories under study. The results further suggest that government policies aimed at reducing unemployment rate and income inequality, and an increase in federal expenditures on police force for maintaining public order and safety (% of GDP) will most likely reduce crime rates when there is an increase in refugee inflow (% of total population). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the relationship between electricity and growth of the economy is investigated by applying the newly-developed bootstrap autoregressive-distributed lag test with a Fourier function to examine both the causality and cointegration for China, India, and the United States (US). While it is not possible to detect a long-term cointegration relation among the economy's electricity and growth, the study findings demonstrate the contingency of the causality. The ensemble method in machine learning performs better than conventional methods as electricity is an independent indicator for forecast economics. Concerning the US, previous electricity consumption has a positive impact on the current nature of economic growth. In contrast, the consumption of electricity is negatively affected by the development of the economy. However, for China and India, positive and negative feedback can be observed, respectively. Due to the increased awareness of the environment's adverse effects, China should promote technologies that conserve energy and boost energy efficiency to achieve sustainable development in both environmental and economic terms. In India's context, broadening access to electricity has significance for residents in rural areas and enhances economic growth. It is recommended that policy-makers promote innovative technologies in the US, as the abundant natural and human resources can make valuable contributions to the society and development of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study investigates the dynamic pass‐through of energy prices (crude oil price, electricity price, natural gas price, and coal price) to real house price in the United States using the data from 1970 to 2017. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the empirical results suggest an incomplete pass‐through for all the energy prices to real house price both in the long run and short run except for long‐run pass‐through of crude oil price which is complete with statistically insignificant parameter. The Granger causality results reveal a feedback effect between natural gas price and real house price, output growth and real house price, natural gas price and crude oil price, coal price and electricity price, and output growth and coal price. In addition, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from crude oil price, natural gas price, real house price, and coal price to electricity price. Again, we find that crude oil price is the cause of coal price in Granger sense. Therefore, our findings provide insights into proper design of energy policy that reduces the transmission of energy price shocks to house price in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research evaluates the long-term determinants of Mexican manufacturing competitiveness in the U.S. market. To perform this task, an International Competitiveness (IC) index is constructed and then a model is specified and estimated by using three different econometric methods. The empirical evidence across econometric techniques is consistent in indicating that IC is responsive to the peso-dollar real exchange rate, the yuan-dollar real exchange rate, labor productivity, wages, and the cost of credit. An important contribution of this paper is to show that manufacturing IC is influenced by the yuan-dollar real exchange rate and the real cost of credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, the U.S. advertising industry has been experiencing enormous movements as a result of rapid advances in the media technology and the business cycle. In this paper, we study the historical behavior of the U.S. advertising industry, correcting for inflation. We find that the introduction of new media cause structural breaks in the mean growth rates of advertising expenditure for the incumbent media. In addition, we find that random components of media advertising spending follow a long-term equilibrium where the cross-elasticities across newer and older media can show substitution or complementarity patterns depending on the type of audience. We examine the influence of the economic conditions on the aggregated advertising expenditure, and on each media spending. We also measure the impact of the recent takeoff in mobile advertising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs state-of-the-art time series analysis to examine the long-run economic and institutional drivers of toxic chemical use behavior in the U.S. Toxic chemicals are classified into growth , Environmental Kuznets Curve ( EKC ), and kinked-growth chemicals, according to their long-run use trend behavior. Cointegration analysis shows that while some toxic chemicals have been successfully reduced by regulatory efforts, a majority of the toxic chemicals used in commercial products share a long-run equilibrium with national accounts and industrial production, suggesting that toxic chemical use has been largely driven by changes in GDP, industrial production, and private R&D investments, rather than by government regulations. Estimated structural break results indicate that the 1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act, which created the Toxic Release Inventory has had impact on the consumptive use of more poisonous industrial chemicals than command-and-control regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While price responsiveness of residential demand for natural gas has important implications on resource planning and energy modelling, its estimates from prior studies are very diverse. Applying panel data analysis and five parametric specifications to monthly data for the lower 48 states in 1990–2019, we estimate own-price elasticities of residential demand for natural gas in the United States (US). Using results from cross-section dependence (CD) test, panel unit root tests, panel time-series estimators, and rolling-window analysis, we document: (1) the statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) static own-price elasticity estimates are −0.271 to −0.486, short-run −0.238 to −0.555 and long-run −0.323 to −0.796; (2) these estimates vary by elasticity type, sample period, parametric specification, treatment of CD and assumption of partial adjustment; (3) erroneously ignoring the highly significant (p-value < 0.01) CD shrinks the size of these estimates that vary seasonally, regionally, and nonlinearly over time; and (4) residential natural gas shortage costs decline with the size of own-price elasticity estimates. These findings suggest that achieving deep decarbonization may require strategies that do not rely solely on prices, such as energy efficiency standards and demand-side-management programs. Demand response programs may prove useful for managing natural gas shortages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to find long- and short-term determinants of U.S. economic growth over the period 1970-2016. By using cointegration analysis and vector error correction models, we compensated for many variables that were not previously linked together. Empirical analysis shows that consumer spending, population, domestic investment, FDI inflows, and exports are long-term sources of economic growth, but FDI outflows, military spending, taxes, and imports are not considered long-term sources of economic growth. grow. In the short run, all variables have no effect on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade). The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery) in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a) for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b) for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While cow's milk and plant‐based milk are often hypothesized to be substitutes, much remains unknown about the impacts that plant‐based milks have on the retail price for cow's milk, if any. We explore the individual retail price relationship between two plant‐based milks, almond and soy, with cow's milk. If the markets are cointegrated, and shocks in the plant‐based markets affect the cow's milk market, it can add volatility to cow's milk prices, which could have implications for costs and benefits of the USDA Dairy Margin Coverage Program and price calculations by the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO). However, while we find evidence that plant‐based milk prices react to shocks in cow's milk prices, we do not find evidence that cow's milk prices respond to changes in plant‐based milk prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reviews the relationship between the different types of oil extraction such as horizontal drilling or fracking, or directional drilling, which is a hybrid between vertical and horizontal, on the behavior of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. In doing so the study adds a new dimension to the literature on the relationship between oil price and extraction techniques. The analysis is based on statistical properties using the VAR model of Fractional Cointegration, reflecting evidence of cointegration between the series, and indicating a long-term equilibrium relationship. In addition, we apply the wavelet transform to analyze the structural changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate brought about by changes in drilling technology. Our results show that all three forms of extraction and West Texas Intermediate prices reach high levels of correlation, particularly around 2014. We conclude that a decrease in production based on any form of crude oil extraction leads to an increase in the price of crude oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to understand how IT capabilities for knowledge management and process integration can build a firm's agile process capabilities for sensing, strategic decision and responding. The study also investigates how the three agile capabilities affect firm performance in different competitive environments. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducted a large-scale field survey with firms in the United States. Survey invitations were sent to business executives of the target firms. A total of 254 complete samples were collected for our hypotheses test. Findings: The results confirm the overall significant roles of IT capabilities in the three agile capabilities. The results further reveal that the IT capability for knowledge management has a higher influence on sensing capability, while the IT capability for process integration has a higher influence on responding capability. Moreover, strategic decision and responding capabilities are more important in the high market competition. However, in the low market competition, sensing capability becomes more important while responding capability demonstrates a negative impact on firm performance. Originality/value: This study helps both academics and practitioners better understand a firm's IT-agility-performance mechanism. Particularly, our findings guide how to achieve agile capabilities and what to focus on under the different levels of market competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We test the long-run neutrality of money proposition for the United States paying attention to the integration and cointegration properties of the variables. We use quarterly data (over the period from 1967:1 to 2014:1) and the new Center for Financial Stability Divisia monetary aggregates. We make a comparison among the narrower monetary aggregates, M1, M2M, MZM, M2, and ALL, and the broad monetary aggregates, M4+, M4-, and M3, and show that there is no statistically significant evidence against long-run monetary neutrality, consistent with both monetarist and Keynesian macroeconomic theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]