Search

This study developed a novel assessment framework to analyze long-term energy transition in the road transport sector in which various technology options, market shares, policy measures, costs, and greenhouse gas emissions are considered in a single framework analysis. A data-intensive model was developed with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and used to analyze policy scenarios up to 2050 for Alberta, Canada, a hydrocarbon-rich province with an emission-intensive energy sector. Three key policy measures – carbon pricing, zero-emission vehicle sales mandate, and incentivization – were analyzed in nine individual and combined policy scenarios. The transition to both hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles was assessed for all vehicle categories. Each fuel's full energy supply chain was modelled, including resource extraction, conversion, transmission and distribution, and fuelling, allowing for final and primary energy analysis. The findings show that carbon price and zero-emission vehicle incentives do not effectively lower greenhouse gas emissions on their own; zero-emission vehicle mandates are needed to transition the sector to a low-carbon energy system. The system-wide greenhouse gas emission footprints of hydrogen and battery electric vehicles are significantly below conventional vehicles in all cases. Scenarios biased towards battery electric vehicles had the most favorable results. The greenhouse gas emission footprint of hydrogen vehicles supplied by auto-thermal reforming with 91% carbon capture was lower than for battery electric vehicles powered by a primarily natural gas-based power grid. The findings on the effectiveness of carbon prices, incentives, and vehicle mandates should be considered by government policymakers aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, infrastructure planners, and other energy stakeholders. [Display omitted] • Assessment of H 2 -FCEVs and BEVs for system-wide energy and emissions. • Impact of carbon price, ZEV sales mandate, and ZEV incentives analyzed up to 2050. • Evaluation of hydrogen production technologies including SMR and ATR with CCS. • Current policies result in 38% decline in system-wide emissions in 2050. • ZEV sales mandate is the most effective in reducing system-wide energy & emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Life cycle assessment of utility-scale solar energy is performed. • Upstream production and assembly are the most emission-intensive life cycle stages. • Energy use during production and plant lifetime are the most sensitive parameters. • The system shows a net energy production with a net energy ratio up to 6.6. • The life cycle GHG emissions range from 98.3 to 149.3 g CO 2 eq /kWh. Grid-connected utility-scale solar PV has emerged as a potential pathway to ensure deep decarbonization of electricity in regions with fossil fuel-dominated energy mixes. Research on utility-scale solar PV projects mainly focuses on assessing technical or economic feasibility. Environmental performance assessments of large-scale solar applications are scarce. There is limited information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy footprints of utility-scale solar energy systems. Earlier studies conducted on small-scale solar systems have limited application in the grid system. We developed a comprehensive bottom-up life cycle assessment model to evaluate the life cycle GHG emissions and energy profiles of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) system with lithium-ion battery storage to provide a consistent electricity supply to the grid with peak load options. We conducted a case study for a fossil fuel-based energy jurisdiction, Alberta (a western province in Canada). The results of the energy assessment show that raw material extraction, production, and assembly of solar panels are the key drivers, accounting for 53% of the total consumption. Energy consumed during battery manufacturing is responsible for 28%. The system shows a net energy production with a mean net energy ratio as high as 6.6 for two-axis sun tracking orientation. The life cycle GHG emissions range from 98.3 to 149.3 g CO 2 eq /kWh with a mean value of 123.8 g CO 2 eq /kWh. The largest emissions contribution is due to the manufacturing of batteries, 54% of the total emissions. The solar PV system offers a mean energy payback time of 3.8 years (with a range of 3.3 to 4.2 years). The results are highly sensitive to the expected lifetime of the system, the panel's peak wattage, and process energy consumption at various life cycle stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel energy-environmental model for penetration of oil sands cogeneration. • Interactions between industry cogeneration and provincial grid system considered. • 2% of oil sands greenhouse gas emissions could be mitigated by 2050. • The marginal abatement cost is $15 per tonne of carbon abated. • 92% of emission mitigation came from the steam-assisted gravity drainage sector. The purpose of this research is to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities from cogenerated electricity in oil sands production. A novel combined market penetration and bottom-up energy system modelling framework was developed to assess the long-range potential and marginal costs of cogenerated electricity in the oil sands. Feasible scenarios for incorporating cogeneration into the in situ, surface mining, and upgrading subsectors were developed along with four additional scenarios incorporating electricity-based technologies to improve in situ plant efficiencies. These scenarios were evaluated under three different carbon pricing policies; twenty-one scenarios in total covering the time period 2019 to 2050. The use of cogeneration in the oil sands for new production during this period was determined through market penetration modelling and the results were compared to a reference scenario of limited cogeneration growth. It was found that there is potential to provide 76 million tonnes of greenhouse gas abatement (2% of cumulative projected oil sands emissions) at a marginal cost of $15 per tonne of carbon abated compared to the reference scenario. The incorporation of electrical equipment, specifically well-pad boilers, well-pad compressors, additional steam compressors, and steam superheaters, resulted in additional costs that outweighed the benefits. A $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent carbon price (within the current Alberta emission reduction regulation) resulted in a 2% increase in forecasted greenhouse gas abatement potential and a $1.4/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent decrease in marginal abatement costs compared to no carbon pricing. This research provides quantification of the greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and marginal abatement costs of cogeneration technologies to allow industry stakeholders and policymakers to compare these technology options to others when considering long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]