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As many marine species face dwindling populations due to the effects of climate change, it is vital to gain crucial information on what this means for the future of these organisms and their surrounding ecosystems. In order to gain insight to what ocean ecosystems might look like with shifting climate variability, we can look to the past. The goal of this project is to produce a two-million-year record of abundance of pelagic fish and sharks in the waters off Cape Town, South Africa. A Ichthyolith Accumulation Rate (IAR) was established to identify fish and shark production over the span of 2 million years. Results from this study show significant fluctuations of IAR, potentially contributing to the glacial-interglacial cycles that characterize the Pleistocene. When compared to complementary data, IAR data from this site is significantly higher compared to other subtropical regions. This increased IAR may be attributed to the behavior of the Agulhas Current that flows around the southern end of the Cape of Good Hope. This project aims to expand the geological history of fish abundances, providing baseline data to fill gaps in knowledge and guide future management efforts.See the storymap created for this project here: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9e02851bc352487db26e5c4aa9fed27b

Abalone Haliotis midae are distributed from the cold, hypercapnic waters of the dynamic Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem to the relatively warm, normocapnic waters of the Agulhas Current. The species supports an important fishery as well as a thriving aquaculture industry. Due to the relatively low capacity to regulate their acid–base balance and their need to calcify shell and radula, abalone are especially vulnerable to increasing ocean acidification. Exposure to acidified seawater, i.e., hypercapnia, also occurs during the farming operation and can originate from (a) changes in influent seawater, (b) pH decrease by accumulation of waste products, and (c) intentional hypercapnia for anaesthesia using CO2-saturated seawater for size grading. Currently, these are acute exposures to hypercapnia, but increasing ocean acidification can cause chronic exposure, if not mitigated. Wild South African abalone are already exposed to periodic hypercapnia during ocean upwelling events and will be more so in the future due to progressive ocean acidification. This study investigated the acute pH effects in isolation as an initial step in studying the acute physiological response of H. midae to provide a mechanistic basis for the design of complex multifactorial studies, imitating more closely what occurs on farms and in the natural habitat. The major findings relevant to the above conditions are as follows: 1. Acute exposure to hypercapnia induces a reversible, unbuffered respiratory acidosis. 2. The impact of acute hypercapnia is size-dependent and potentially fatal. 3. Exposure to extreme, short hypercapnia during anaesthesia causes a rapid imbalance in the acid–base state but a rapid subsequent recovery. LC50 for small, medium and large abalone range from pH 6.27 to 6.03, respectively, and sub-lethal levels from pH 6.8 to 6.2. These results can be used by abalone aquaculture farms to mitigate/avoid the impact of acute (and chronic) hypercapnia but also to standardise their anaesthesia method. They are also a proxy to estimate the effects on wild populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disentangling inputs of aeolian dust, ice-rafted debris (IRD), and eroded continental detritus delivered by ocean currents to marine sediments provide important insights into Earth System processes and climate. This study uses Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios of the continent-derived (lithogenic) fraction in deep-sea core TN057-6 from the subantarctic Southern Ocean southwest of Africa over the past 150,000 y to identify source regions and quantify their relative contributions and fluxes utilizing a mixing model set in a Bayesian framework. The data are compared with proxies from parallel core Ocean Drilling Program Site 1090 and newly presented data from potential South America aeolian dust source areas (PSAs), allowing for an integrated investigation into atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric dynamics. PSA inputs varied on glacial/interglacial timescales, with southern South American sources dominating up to 88% of the lithogenic fraction (mainly Patagonia, which provided up to 68%) during cold periods, while southern African sources were more important during interglacials. During the warmer Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 of the last glacial period, lithogenic fluxes were twice that of colder MIS2 and MIS4 at times, and showed unique isotope ratios best explained by Antarctic-derived IRD, likely from the Weddell Sea. The IRD intrusions contributed up to 41% at times and followed Antarctic millennial warming events that raised temperatures, causing instability of icesheet margins. High IRD was synchronous with increased bioavailable iron, nutrient utilization, high biological productivity, and decreased atmospheric CO2. Overall, TN057-6 sediments record systematic Southern Hemisphere climate shifts and cryospheric changes that impacted biogeochemical cycling on both glacial/interglacial and subglacial timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agulhas Return Current (ARC) transports warm tropical and subtropical waters eastward into the southern Indian Ocean. It plays a crucial role in the oceanographic connections between the Indian, Atlantic, and Southern oceans. Modern oceanographic observations show that the latitudinal position of the ARC varies interannually. However, its historical positional variations remain poorly understood. Calcareous nannofossils can be a good indicator of ancient current migration, although their record in the Southwest Indian Ocean is poorly studied. This research aims to understand the characteristics and downcore variation of the calcareous nannofossil assemblages and trace the record of the ancient ARC. To achieve these goals, this study analyzed pelagic sediments of multicore 34IV-SWIR-S021MC03, 34IV-SWIR-S032MC04, and 34IV-SWIR-S040MC05 from the Southwest Indian Ocean. A total of 13 nannofossil species have been identified. The assemblages belong to the subtropical convergence zone regime. They are characterized by warm and cold water species, dominated by Emiliania huxleyi, Calcidiscus leptoporus, Gephyrocapsa muellerae, and Florisphaera profunda. According to the AMS[sup 14]C age model and phytoplankton ecological signatures, this study establishes a calcareous nannofossil indicator to trace the migration of the ancient ARC during the last 40 kyr. The result shows three periods of migration: 40-22 kyr, the ancient ARC was in the far north and was moving southward; 22-14 kyr, a transitional period, the ancient ARC was moving northward; 14-3 kyr, the ARC was moving southward. This further suggests that the migration of the ancient ARC is more complex than the two recognized phases, and there were essential turning points around the last glacial maximum period. It also acknowledges that the ancient ARC is sensitive to interglacial periods and can be influenced simultaneously by the Southern Hemisphere monsoon and westerly winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Western boundaries have been suggested as mesoscale eddy graveyards, using a diagnostic of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) flux divergence based on sea surface height (η). The graveyard's paradigm relies on the approximation of geostrophy—required by the use of η—and other approximations that support long baroclinic Rossby waves as the dominant contribution to the EKE flux divergence. However, a recent study showed an opposite paradigm in the Agulhas Current region using an unapproximated EKE flux divergence. Here, we assess the validity of the approximations used to derive the η‐based EKE flux divergence using a regional numerical simulation of the Agulhas Current. The EKE flux divergence consists of the eddy pressure work (EPW) and the EKE advection (AEKE). We show that geostrophy is valid for inferring AEKE, but that all approximations are invalid for inferring EPW. A scale analysis shows that at mesoscale (L > O(30) km), EPW is dominated by coupled geostrophic‐ageostrophic EKE flux and that Rossby waves effect is weak. There is also a hitherto neglected topographic contribution, which can be locally dominant. AEKE is dominated by the geostrophic EKE flux, which makes a substantial contribution (54%) to the net regional mesoscale EKE source represented by the EKE flux divergence. Other contributions, including topographic and ageostrophic effects, are also significant. Our results support the use of η to infer a qualitative estimate of the EKE flux divergence in the Agulhas Current region. However, they invalidate the approximations on mesoscale eddy dynamics that underlie the graveyard's paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean hosts a winter deep mixing band (DMB) near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's (ACC) northern boundary, playing a pivotal role in Subantarctic Mode Water formation. Here, we investigate what controls the presence and geographical extent of the DMB. Using observational data, we construct seasonal climatologies of surface buoyancy fluxes, Ekman buoyancy transport, and upper stratification. The strength of the upper-ocean stratification is determined using the columnar buoyancy index, defined as the buoyancy input necessary to produce a 250 m deep mixed layer. It is found that the DMB lies precisely where the autumn–winter buoyancy loss exceeds the columnar buoyancy found in late summer. The buoyancy loss decreases towards the south, while in the north the stratification is too strong to produce deep mixed layers. Although this threshold is also crossed in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current regions, advection of buoyancy is able to stabilise the stratification. The Ekman buoyancy transport has a secondary impact on the DMB extent due to the compensating effects of temperature and salinity transports on buoyancy. Changes in surface temperature drive spatial variations in the thermal expansion coefficient (TEC). These TEC variations are necessary to explain the limited meridional extent of the DMB. We demonstrate this by comparing buoyancy budgets derived using varying TEC values with those derived using a constant TEC value. Reduced TEC in colder waters leads to decreased winter buoyancy loss south of the DMB, yet substantial heat loss persists. Lower TEC values also weaken the effect of temperature stratification, partially compensating for the effect of buoyancy loss damping. TEC modulation impacts both the DMB characteristics and its meridional extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meteorology of ridging highs on the coast of KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN) South Africa was studied using Principal Component (pc) analysis of daily ERA5 sea level air pressure (SLP) fields 1980–2021. The second pc mode time score representing ridging highs, was associated with rain‐showers moving northeast‐ward along the KZN coast. Temporal analysis revealed an Oct‐Dec peak occurrence and 12‐day pulse intervals induced by the eastward migration of atmospheric Rossby waves in early summer. From a ranking of SLP pc2 and associated daily time series, a case study emerged: 14–18 Nov. 2009. This ridging high weather scenario had cold southerly winds subsiding over the warm Agulhas Current. Surface moisture fluxes >350 W/m2 create a buoyant airmass that slows and lifts over the coastal plains, inducing shallow clouds that reduce net solar radiation and potential evaporation. Interannual variability of ridging highs was studied by filtering the daily SLP pc2 time score to retain seasonal fluctuations and correlating with regional fields of SST. This revealed warming in the SW Indian Ocean associated with positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The atmospheric circulation forms a NW trough over Madagascar which deforms eastward moving mid‐latitude anticyclones. Thus, ridging highs that bring beneficial Oct‐Dec rains to the coast of KZN depend on downstream climate coupling with the IOD. Long‐term trends from a coupled model simulation 1980–2100 suggest a poleward retreat of the anticyclonic ridge, consistent with declining Durban‐area river flow in early summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agulhas Return Current (ARC), as a primary component of the Agulhas system, contributes to water exchange and mass transport between the southern portions of the Indian and Atlantic Ocean basins. In this study, satellite altimeter data and reanalysis datasets, and a new set of criteria for the piecewise definition of the jet axis are used to explore the long-term change of the ARC's axis position in recent three decades. It is found that the ARC axis exhibits a significant slanting trend with its western part (35–48°E) migrating northward and the eastern part (48–70°E) migrating southward. The meridional movement of the ARC path could be attributed to large-scale wind forcing. The anomalous surface wind stress curl, by Ekman pumping mechanism, leads to positive–negative–positive sea surface height anomalies in the western section and negative–positive–negative anomalies in the eastern section, thus the ARC axis tilts accordingly, in a northwest–southeast direction. Further analysis suggests that this ARC slanting trend is more dependent on the southward shift of the downstream axis and less on the topographic steering upstream. The downstream axis is more likely to interact with the ACC fronts and its migration could dominate the local EKE pattern by changing the background circulation and energy cascade direction. For the headstream west of 35°E, the ARC axis is more subject to topography, thus the EKE change is more dominated by eddy activity processes, including shedding, propagation and merging. This study provides some new insights into the long-term change of ARC and its interaction with the local EKE variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zooplankton plays an essential role in marine ecosystems as the link between primary producers (phytoplankton) and higher trophic levels in food webs, and as a dynamic pool of recruits for invertebrates and fish. Zooplankton communities are diverse with a patchy distribution at different spatial scales, influenced by oceanographic processes. The continental shelf of eastern South Africa is narrow and exposed to the western‐boundary Agulhas Current, with some shelter against strong directional flow provided by the broader KwaZulu‐Natal Bight, a coastal offset adjacent to an estuary. We compared zooplankton species richness, diversity and relative abundance of key taxa among sheltered and exposed shelf areas using metabarcoding and community analysis, to explore the ecological role of the bight in a highly dynamic ocean region. Metabarcoding recovered higher richness and diversity at a finer resolution than could previously be achieved with traditional microscopy. Of 271 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) recovered through metabarcoding, 63% could be matched with >95% sequence similarity to reference barcodes. OTUs were dominated by malacostracan crustaceans (161 spp.), ray‐finned fishes (45 spp.) and copepods (28 spp.). Species richness, diversity and the relative abundance of key taxa differed between sheltered and exposed shelf areas. Lower species richness in the bight was partly attributed to structurally homogeneous benthic habitats, and an associated reduction of meroplanktonic species originating from local benthic–pelagic exchange. High relative abundance of a ray‐finned fish in the bight, as observed based on fish eggs and read counts, confirmed that the bight is an important fish spawning area. Overall, zooplankton metabarcoding outputs were congruent with findings of previous ecological research using more traditional methods of observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of meridional shift of the oceanic subtropical front (STF) on the Agulhas Current (AC) regime shifts is studied using satellite altimeter data and a 1.5-layer ocean model. The satellite observations suggest the northward shift of the STF leads to the AC leaping across the gap with little Agulhas leakage, and the southward shift of the STF mainly results in the AC intruding into the Atlantic Ocean in the forms of a loop current and an eddy-shedding path, while there are three flow patterns of AC for moderate latitude of the STF. The ocean model results suggest no hysteresis (associated with multiple equilibrium states) exists in the AC system. The model reproduces similar AC regimes depending on different gap widths as in the observations, and model results can be used to explain the observed Agulhas leakage well. We also present the parameter space of the critical AC strength that results in different AC flow patterns as a function of the gap width. The vorticity dynamics of the AC regime shift suggests that the β term is mainly balanced by the viscosity term for the AC in the leaping and loop current paths, while the β and instantaneous vorticity terms are mainly balanced by the advection and viscosity terms for the AC in the eddy-shedding path. These findings help explain the dynamics of the AC flowing across the gateway beyond the tip of Africa affected by the north–south shift of the STF in the leaping regime or penetrating regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial‐marine dust fluxes, pedogenic carbonate δ13C values, and various paleovegetation proxies suggest that Africa experienced gradual cooling and drying across the Pliocene‐Pleistocene (Plio‐Pleistocene) boundary (2.58 million years ago [Ma]). However, the timing, magnitude, resolution, and relative influences of orbitally‐driven changes in high latitude glaciations and low latitude insolation differ by region and proxy. To disentangle these forcings and investigate equatorial eastern African climate across the Plio‐Pleistocene boundary, we generated a high‐resolution (∼3,000‐year) data set of compound‐specific n‐alkane leaf wax δ2H values—a robust proxy for atmospheric circulation and precipitation amount—from the HSPDP‐BTB13‐1A core, which spans a ∼3.3–2.6 Ma sequence in the Baringo‐Tugen Hills‐Barsemoi Basin of central Kenya. In combination with the physical sedimentology, our data indicate that precipitation varied strongly with orbital obliquity, not precession, during the late Pliocene, perhaps imparted by variations in the cross‐equatorial insolation gradient. We also observe a marked shift toward wetter conditions beginning ∼3 Ma that corresponds with global cooling, drying in western Australia, and a steepening of the west‐east zonal Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. We propose that northward migration of the Subtropical Front reduced Agulhas current leakage, warming the western IO and causing changes in the IO zonal SST gradient at 3 Ma, a process that has been observed in the latest Pleistocene‐Holocene but not over longer timescales. Thus, the late Cenozoic moisture history of eastern Africa is driven by a complex mixture of low‐latitude insolation, the IO SST gradient, and teleconnections to distal high‐latitude cooling. Key Points: We present new high resolution (3,000‐year) leaf wax δ2H data from central Kenya spanning 3.3–2.6 million years before present (Ma)Pronounced 41,000‐year variability throughout is potentially attributable to the cross‐equatorial insolation gradientLong‐term (>200,000‐year) variability in eastern African hydroclimate tracks the zonal Indian Ocean surface temperature gradient [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs) are among the most energetic currents in the global circulation system and play an important role in the oceanic meridional heat transport (OHT). Based on nine high-resolution global coupled climate models, this study investigates the change of OHT by subtropical WBCs (WHT) under global warming. We found that WHT in both hemispheres depicts a weakening trend during 1950–2050, primarily caused by the transport change of WBCs. In the Northern Hemisphere, weakening of the Gulf Stream resulting from the slowing AMOC leads to the hemispheric WHT weakening. In the Southern Hemisphere, the WHT decrease is mainly induced by the sharp decline of Agulhas Current transport, associated with the change in wind field in the southern Indian Ocean and Indonesian Throughflow. Compared to the mean flow, the contribution of mesoscale eddies to OHT change is negligible along with WBCs but is important in their extension regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• First observations of living individuals of the athecate dinoflagellate genus Pavillardia and Gyrodinium postmaculatum , and G. rubricaudatum since the original description in 1921. • Pavillardia is able to detach its posterior extension, and it is not a moveable tentacle. • The colouration is an unstable diagnostic character in heterotrophic gymnodinioid dinoflagellates. • The genera Pavillardia and Gyrodinium are considered synonyms. • Gyrodinium postmaculatum, G. rubricaudatum , and Pavillardia tentaculifera are forms of the same species. Amongst the dinoflagellates, the heterotrophic unarmoured species are the group that has received less attention. The species Gyrodinium postmaculatum, G. rubricaudatum and the genus Pavillardia remain unreported since the original description in 1921. During on-board observations of living plankton in the Agulhas Current in the continental shelf off eastern South Africa, we observed individuals that fit with the description of Pavillardia, G. postmaculatum and G. rubricaudatum , and other intermediate forms. The posterior extension of Pavillardia tentaculifera was not movable, it detached and the cell remained viable. The diagnoses of G. postmaculatum and G. rubricaudatum were based on red colouration, but this feature was highly variable. Pavillardia devoid of the posterior extension is indistinguishable from G. postmaculatum. There are no significant differences in the morphology among Pavillardia tentaculifera, G. postmaculatum , and G. rubricaudatum. Pavillardia is considered a synonym of Gyrodinium , and the name G. postmaculatum is proposed for these three species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean hosts a winter deep mixing band (DMB) near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's (ACC) northern boundary, playing a pivotal role in Subantarctic Mode Water formation. Here, we investigate what controls the presence and geographical extent of the DMB. Using observational data, we construct seasonal climatologies of surface buoyancy fluxes, Ekman buoyancy transport, and upper stratification. The strength of the upper ocean stratification is determined using the columnar buoyancy index, defined as the buoyancy input necessary to produce a 250m deep mixed layer. It is found that the DMB lies precisely where the autumn - winter buoyancy loss exceeds the columnar buoyancy found in late summer. The buoyancy loss decreases towards the south, while in the north, the stratification is too strong to produce deep mixed layers. Although this threshold is also crossed in the Agulhas current and East Australian current regions, advection of buoyancy is able to stabilise the stratification. The Ekman buoyancy transport has a secondary impact on the DMB extent due to the com pensating effects of temperature and salinity transports on buoyancy. Changes in surface temperature drive spatial variations of the thermal expansion coefficient (TEC). These TEC variations are necessary to explain the limited meridional extent of the DMB. We demonstrate this by comparing buoyancy budgets derived using varying TEC values with those derived using a constant TEC value. Reduced TEC in colder waters leads to decreased winter buoyancy loss south of the DMB, yet substantial heat loss persists. Lower TEC values also weaken the effect of temperature stratification, partially compensating for the effect of buoyancy loss damping. TEC modulation impacts both the DMB characteristics and its meridional extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrodynamics of coral reefs strongly influences their biological functioning, impacting processes such as nutrient availability and uptake, recruitment success and bleaching. For example, coral reefs located in oligotrophic regions depend on upwelling for nutrient supply. Coral reefs at Sodwana Bay, located on the east coast of South Africa, are an example of high latitude marginal reefs. These reefs are subjected to complex hydrodynamic forcings due to the interaction between the strong Agulhas current and the highly variable topography of the region. In this study, we explore the reef scale hydrodynamics resulting from the bathymetry for two steady current scenarios at Two-Mile Reef (TMR) using a combination of field data and numerical simulations. The influence of tides or waves was not considered for this study as well as reef-scale roughness. Tilt current meters with onboard temperature sensors were deployed at selected locations within TMR. We used field observations to identify the dominant flow conditions on the reef for numerical simulations that focused on the hydrodynamics driven by mean currents. During the field campaign, southerly currents were the predominant flow feature with occasional flow reversals to the north. Northerly currents were associated with greater variability towards the southern end of TMR. Numerical simulations showed that Jesser Point was central to the development of flow features for both the northerly and southerly current scenarios. High current variability in the south of TMR during reverse currents is related to the formation of Kelvin-Helmholtz type shear instabilities along the outer edge of an eddy formed north of Jesser Point. Furthermore, downward vertical velocities were computed along the offshore shelf at TMR during southerly currents. Current reversals caused a change in vertical velocities to an upward direction due to the orientation of the bathymetry relative to flow directions. Highlights: A predominant southerly current was measured at Two-Mile Reef with occasional reversals towards the north. Field observations indicated that northerly currents are spatially varied along Two-Mile Reef. Simulation of reverse currents show the formation of a separated flow due to interaction with Jesser Point with Kelvin–Helmholtz type shear instabilities along the seaward edge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Direct observations of turbulent mixing in energetic ocean currents are fundamentally important to improving the understanding of stratified turbulence and the predictive capability of ocean models. In this study, we have selected an energetic region of the Western Indian Ocean to make simultaneous measurements of temperature and velocity to directly infer the geography of turbulent mixing on the east coast of South Africa. Direct measurements of the rate of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation, ϵ , were recorded by an autonomous underwater vehicle glider platform and vertical microstructure profiler (VMP). The glider was deployed in the Agulhas current in 2015 over a 200 km transect and measured approximately 250 vertical profiles of turbulent microstructure. Additional vertical profiles near the shelf were obtained from approximately 85 VMP casts during 2018 in a region where the powerful Agulhas current is formed and interacts with the shelf. VMP and glider data collected at Sodwana Bay and the Agulhas current showed evidence of elevated dissipation rates 10 - 8 < ϵ < 10 - 6 Wkg - 1 . Our results indicate that in general turbulent mixing in the Agulhas is concentrated spatially in pancake-shaped patches. Ordinary Kriging was used to interpolate between consecutive profiles and showed that the horizontal scale of the turbulent patches was typically O(1 km) while the vertical scales of the patches ranged between 0.01 and 10 m. Article Highlights: Direct measurements of turbulent dissipation in the strong persistent Agulhas current are presented for the first time using sensors fitted on a glider and vertical microstructure profiler. Ordinary Kriging revealed the geography of mixing and that turbulent mixing in the Agulhas is concentrated spatially in pancake-shaped patches. VMP data collected at Sodwana showed evidence of elevated dissipation rates 10 - 8 < ϵ < 10 - 6 Wkg - 1 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Agulhas Current, like other western boundary currents (WBCs), transports nutrients laterally from the tropics to the subtropics in a subsurface “nutrient stream.” These nutrients are predominantly supplied to surface waters by seasonal convective mixing, to fuel a brief period of productivity before phytoplankton become nutrient‐limited. Episodic mixing events characteristic of WBC systems can temporarily alleviate nutrient scarcity by vertically entraining deep nutrients into surface waters. However, our understanding of these nutrient fluxes is lacking because they are spatio‐temporally limited, and once they enter the sunlit layer, the nutrients are rapidly consumed by phytoplankton. Here, we use a novel application of nitrate Δ(15–18), the difference between the nitrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of nitrate, to characterize three (sub)mesoscale events of upward nitrate supply across the Agulhas Current in winter: (1) mixing at the edges of an anticyclonic eddy, (2) inshore upwelling associated with a submesoscale meander of the Agulhas Current, and (3) overturning at the edge of the current core driven by submesoscale instabilities. All three events manifest as upward injections of high‐Δ(15–18) nitrate into the thermocline and surface where nitrate Δ(15–18) is otherwise low; these entrainment events are not always apparent in the other co‐collected data. The dynamics driving the nitrate supply events are common to all WBCs, implying that nutrient entrainment facilitated by WBCs is quantitatively significant and supports productivity in otherwise oligotrophic subtropical surface waters. A future rise in energy across WBC systems may increase these nutrient fluxes, partly offsetting the predicted stratification‐induced decrease in subtropical ocean fertility.

The Agulhas Current (AC) had been quite variable during the Quaternary Period, which not only impacted the Agulhas Leakage (AL) but also caused changes in the AMOC. To study the changes in the strength of AC, planktic foraminiferal census count and stable oxygen isotope data from the IODP Hole U-1474A were generated for the last 1.2 million years (My). We recorded significant variations in the abundance of climate-sensitive species, which were grouped according to their ecological preference as warm tropical-subtropical Agulhas Fauna (AF), temperate-subpolar Southern Ocean Fauna (SOF), stable oxygen isotope records and the Subtropical Front (STF) Index. The correlation of these records suggests that the strength of AC reduced during seven intervals during the last 1.2 My, in response to cooling climate, which led to the northward shift of STF. The studied interval was divided into three periods of MPT, MPT-MBE and post-MBE events. The AC was strongest after the Mid-Brunhes Event (0.43 Ma) as compared to the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) and post-MPT to MBE intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the region of the Agulhas leakage origin. The study region is limited by 20–46° S, 0–24° E; it includes the Cape Basin and is crossed by Walvis Ridge. This region is characterized by high dynamic activity of mesoscale eddies and variability of hydrographic parameters in a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The main element of large-scale circulation is represented by a phenomenon called the Agulhas leakage which is influenced by the South Atlantic Gyre, Benguela Current, and Benguela upwelling. Water particles of various origins are mixed and affect the thermohaline properties of mesoscale eddies, which form a source of the Agulhas leakage. We divided the region into three zones and showed that eddies and their properties differ in each of them. The Agulhas leakage is formed only by long-lived eddies, mainly anticyclones, while cyclones have smaller trajectories and shorter lifespans. In this research, we apply statistical analysis using AMEDA (Angular Momentum Eddy Detection Algorithm), Lagrangian analysis, and the study of vertical thermohaline cross-sections. We establish that in the Cape Basin, the waters of the Agulhas leakage mix with waters of the South Atlantic Gyre and the Benguela Current, and the thermohaline properties of the Agulhas eddies change since the warm and salty waters of the Indian Ocean mix with fresher and colder ones of the Atlantic Ocean. The water particles of the South Atlantic Gyre cross the western border of the region and travel a distance exceeding 500 km in the eastern direction mixing with other particles. We demonstrate that the eddies generated in the Cape Basin are also significantly influenced by the waters of the South Atlantic Gyre. These waters are transported to the Cape Basin region from the west and southwest. This explains the existence of a two-mode water structure noted by other researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-resolution climate archive was reconstructed based on carbon isotope analysis and radiocarbon dating of the Chapman baobab in northeastern Botswana. The Chapman baobab, which exhibited an open ring-shaped structure composed of six stems, collapsed in January 2016 during an intense El Niño event. Two samples belonging to the oldest stems were investigated in order to obtain a proxy rainfall record, which provides insight into the precipitation regime over the last millennium, evincing centennial and decadal scale variability. The results indicate that the Medieval Warm Period was marked by relatively stable precipitation, whereas rainfall variability and drought frequency increased during the Little Ice Age. The investigated area has experienced both wetter and drier conditions in the past. The wettest conditions of the last millennium were registered before 1450 while the driest period occurred in 1835. For southern Africa, inter-annual rainfall variability is mainly associated with sea surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current core region, which determine the east–west displacement of tropical temperate troughs. Previous studies suggested that positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the Mozambique Channel led to an eastward movement of the troughs but the Chapman record demonstrates a westward displacement in the past, causing drought in northeastern South Africa and wetter conditions in the central part of southern Africa. The positive rainfall correlation with SST anomalies reversed after 1900, causing a gradual decrease in precipitation and confirming the current aridity trend for Botswana. The results contribute to a better understanding of the past climate of southern Africa for which paleoclimate reconstructions remain scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For over 25 years, satellite altimetry has provided invaluable information about the ocean dynamics at many scales. In particular, gridded sea surface height (SSH) maps allow us to estimate the mesoscale geostrophic circulation in the ocean. However, conventional interpolation techniques rely on static optimal interpolation schemes, hence limiting the estimation of non-linear dynamics at scales not well sampled by altimetry (i.e., below 150–200 km at mid-latitudes). To overcome this limitation in the resolution of small-scale SSH structures (and thus small-scale geostrophic currents), a back-and-forth nudging algorithm combined with a quasi-geostrophic model, a technique called BFN-QG, has been successfully applied on simulated SSH data in observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The result is a significant reduction in interpolation error and an improvement in the space–time resolutions of the experimental gridded product compared to those of operational products. In this study, we propose that the BFN-QG be applied to real altimetric SSH data in a highly turbulent region spanning a part of the Agulhas Current. The performances are evaluated within observing system experiments (OSEs) that use independent data (such as independent SSH, sea surface temperature and drifter data) as ground truth. By comparing the mapping performances to the ones obtained with operational products, we show that the BFN-QG improves the mapping of short, energetic mesoscale structures and associated geostrophic currents both in space and time. In particular, the BFN-QG improves (i) the spatial effective resolution of the SSH maps by a factor of 20 %, (ii) the zonal and (especially) the meridional geostrophic currents, and (iii) the prediction of Lagrangian transport for lead times up to 10 d. Unlike the results obtained in the OSSEs, the OSEs reveal more contrasting performances in low-variability regions, which are discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate ocean dynamics at different scales in the Agulhas Current system, a region of important interocean exchange of heat and energy. While ocean observations and some of the most advanced climate models capture the larger mesoscale dynamics (> 100 km), the smaller-scale fronts and eddies are underrepresented. The recently launched NASA–CNES Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide-swath altimeter mission observes the smaller ocean geostrophic scales down to 15 km in wavelength globally. Here we will analyse different eddy diagnostics in the Agulhas Current region and quantify the contributions from the larger mesoscales observable today and the smaller scales to be observed with SWOT. Surface geostrophic diagnostics of eddy kinetic energy, strain, and energy cascades are estimated from modelled sea surface height (SSH) fields of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) latitude–longitude polar cap (LLC4320) simulation subsampled at 1/10 ∘. In this region, the smaller scales (<150 km) have a strong signature on the horizontal geostrophic strain rate and for all eddy diagnostics in the Western Boundary Current and along the meandering Agulhas Extension. We investigate the horizontal cascade of energy using a coarse-graining technique, and we observe that the wavelength range where the inverse cascade occurs is biased towards larger mesoscale wavelengths with today's altimetric sampling. We also calculate the projected sampling of the eddy diagnostics under the SWOT swaths built with the NASA–CNES simulator to include the satellite position and realistic noise. For the swaths, a neural network noise mitigation method is implemented to reduce the residual SWOT random error before calculating eddy diagnostics. In terms of SSH, observable wavelengths of 15 to 20 km are retrieved after neural network noise mitigation, as opposed to wavelengths larger than 40 km before the noise reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Southern Africa, precipitation is a crucial variable linked to agriculture and water supply. In addition, extreme precipitation causes devastating flooding, and heavy rainfall events are a significant threat to the population in this region. We analyse here the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation and its projected changes in the future. We also investigate whether the Agulhas Current, a major regional oceanic current system, influences those events. For this purpose, we analyse simulations with the regional atmospheric model CCLM covering the last decades and the 21st century. The simulations are driven by atmospheric reanalysis and by two global simulations. The regional simulations display the strongest precipitation over Madagascar, the Mozambique channel, and the adjacent mainland. Extreme rainfall events are most intense over the mountainous regions of Madagascar and Drakensberg and the African Great Lakes. In general, extremes are stronger in the Summer Rainfall Zone than in the Winter Rainfall Zone. Extremes are projected to become more intense over the South African coast in the future. For the KwaZulu-Natal Province, the heaviest rainfall event in the future is twice as strong as the strongest extreme simulated in the historical period and the recently observed disastrous extreme event in April 2022. The impact of the Agulhas Current System on strong rainfall events over the South African coast does not clearly appear in the simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa's precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Passage of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) water through the Indian Ocean constitutes an essential section of the upper limb of the global ocean conveyor belt. Although existing studies have identified a major exit of the ITF water to the Atlantic Ocean through the Agulhas Current system, our knowledge regarding other possible destinations and primary pathways remains limited. This study applies the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS) particle tracking algorithm to seven model-based ocean current datasets. The results reveal a robust return path of the ITF water to the Pacific Ocean. The partition ratio between the Atlantic and Pacific routes is 1.60 ± 0.54 to 1, with the uncertainty representing interdataset spread. The average transit time across the Indian Ocean is 10–20 years to the Atlantic and 15–30 years to the Pacific. The "transit velocity" is devised to describe the three-dimensional pathways in a quantitative sense. Its distribution demonstrates that the recirculation structures in the southwestern subtropical Indian Ocean favor the exit to the Atlantic, while the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Southern Ocean serves as the primary corridor to the Pacific. Our analysis also suggests the vital impact of vertical motions. In idealized tracing experiments inhibiting vertical currents and turbulent mixing, more water tends to linger over the Indian Ocean or return to the Pacific. Turbulence mixing also contributes to vertical motions but only slightly affects the destinations and pathways of ITF water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drifting fish eggs and larvae (ichthyoplankton) can be identified to species using DNA metabarcoding, thus allowing for post hoc community analyses at a high taxonomic resolution. We undertook a regional-scale study of ichthyoplankton distribution along the east coast of South Africa, focused on the contrasting environments of the tropical Delagoa and subtropical Natal Ecoregions, and on exposed and sheltered shelf areas. Zooplankton samples were collected with tow nets at discrete stations along cross-shelf transects (20–200 m depth) spaced along a latitudinal gradient that incorporates a known biogeographical boundary. Metabarcoding detected 67 fish species, of which 64 matched prior distribution records of fishes from South Africa, with the remaining three known from the Western Indian Ocean. Coastal, neritic and oceanic species were present, from epi- and mesopelagic to benthopelagic and benthic adult habitats. By family, Myctophidae (10 species), Carangidae, Clupeidae, Labridae (each with 4 species) and Haemulidae (3 species) were most speciose. Ichthyoplankton community composition varied significantly with latitude, distance to coast, and distance to the shelf edge. Small pelagic fishes had the highest frequency of occurrence: Engraulis capensis, Emmelichthys nitidus and Benthosema pterotum increased in frequency towards the north, whereas Etrumeus whiteheadi increased towards the south. Chub mackerel Scomber japonicus accounted for most variability related to distance from the coast, whilst African scad Trachurus delagoa correlated with distance to the shelf edge. Dissimilarity between communities in the Delagoa and Natal Ecoregions was 98–100%, whereas neighbouring transects located within the sheltered KwaZulu-Natal Bight had lower dissimilarity (56–86%). Onshore transport of ichthyoplankton by Agulhas Current intrusions plausibly explained the abundance of mesopelagic species over the shelf. Metabarcoding followed by community analysis revealed a latitudinal gradient in the ichthyoplankton, associations with coastal and shelf-edge processes, and evidence of a spawning area in the sheltered KwaZulu-Natal Bight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a spatiotemporal dataset of dissolved lead (dPb) from the subtropical oceans surrounding South Africa, this study quantifies the exchange of dPb between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Despite the absence of a major Pb source within the South Atlantic sector and the complete phase-out of leaded petroleum in Southern Africa, the ecologically important southeast Cape Basin shows an elevated surface dPb concentration (21–30 pmol kg−1). We estimated up to 90% of the measured dPb in surface waters of the Cape Basin was delivered from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas Current (AC). Eddy dynamics and leakage at Agulhas retroflection result in an increased Pb flux from winter to summer, while a long-term (2008–2019) temporal change in dPb in the AC-derived water of Cape Basin was contemporaneous to a change in atmospheric Pb emissions from South Africa. The South African-origin atmospheric Pb, however, contributes first to the Agulhas waters in the West Indian Ocean, which is then transported to the South Atlantic, thereby regulating the dPb inventory of the Cape Basin. This indirect mechanism of Pb transfer emphasizes the importance of regulating Pb emissions from Southern Africa to protect rich fishing grounds associated with the Benguela marine ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For over 25 years, satellite altimetry has provided invaluable information about the ocean dynamics at many scales. In particular, gridded Sea Surface Height (SSH) maps allow to estimate the mesoscale geostrophic circulation in the ocean. However, conventional interpolation techniques rely on static optimal interpolation schemes, hence limiting the estimation of non linear dynamics at scales not well sampled by altimetry (i.e. below 150–200 km at mid latitudes). To overcome this limitation in the resolution of small-scale SSH structures (and thus small-scale geostrophic currents), a Back and Forth Nudging algorithm combined with a Quasi-Geostrophic model, a technique called BFN-QG, has been successfully applied on simulated SSH data in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), showing a significant reduction in interpolation error and an improvement of space-time resolutions of the experimental gridded product compared to operational products. In this study, we propose to apply the BFN-QG to real altimetric SSH data in a highly turbulent region spanning a part of the Agulhas current. The performances are evaluated within Observing System Experiments (OSEs) that use independent data (such as independent SSH, Sea Surface Temperature and drifter data) as ground-truth. By comparing the mapping performances to the ones obtained by operational products, we show that the BFN-QG improves the mapping of short, energetic mesoscale structures and associated geostrophic currents both in space and time. In particular, the BFN-QG improves (i) the spatial effective resolution of the SSH maps by a factor of 20 %, (ii) the zonal and (especially) the meridional geostrophic currents and (iii) the prediction of Lagrangian transport for lead times up to 10 days. Unlike the results obtained in the OSSEs, the OSEs reveal more contrasting performances in low variability regions that are discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The iSimangaliso Wetland Park, located along the coastline of northern KwaZulu-Natal, hosts South Africa's only subtropical coral reef system. Episodic upwelling events are observed inshore and at the heads of Diepgat, Leadsman and Leven canyons within the iSimangaliso Wetland Park and may assist in larval dispersal and act as a buffer against coral bleaching. Over a 12-month period (1 June 2018-31 May 2019), two cooling events were identified from surface and subsurface temperature measurements extracted from the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) product of the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) satellite and data collected from underwater temperature recorders, respectively. Lagged correlations between subsurface temperatures confirmed that the anomalous cooling events were upwelling events (of 2-7 hours). The approximate upwelling rate was greatest at Diepgat Canyon, which suggests that upwelling events are enhanced by the physical structure of the canyon head and its shallow termination point which may influence the affected ecosystems. Wind measurements from the Mbazwana weather station and satellite sea-level anomalies were used to investigate the respective roles of wind stress and mesoscale ocean variability as driving forces of the upwelling events. The results indicate that the less intense and shorter cooling event was driven by a cyclonic eddy event, but that the stronger cooling event was driven by a combination of both forcing mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is a continuation of the authors' research [5]. We apply some aspects of the theory about strong horizontal elongation of large-scale mesoscale vortices in the World Ocean based on the theory ellipsoidal vortices to oceanic conditions. Two areas are considered, characterized by increased eddy manifestation: the Lofoten Basin in the Norwegian Sea and the Agulhas Current area. We also discuss the condition of the Atlantic Ocean and the World Ocean. The main objective of this study is to check the feasibility of the physical conditions for unbounded vortex elongation in the real ocean and estimate the fraction of mesoscale ocean vortices that are elongated into filaments with energy redistributed from the mesoscale to the submesoscale. We estimate the share of vortices in the World Ocean that are strongly elongated. We propose maps of the geographical location of unlimited vortex elongation zones and interpret the results. We also describe the effect of a decrease in the self-energy of vortices due to the tensile action of the background flow. We propose that it is a possible mechanism for energy transfer from the vortex to the flow and a manifestation of the negative viscosity effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agulhas Current (AC) is a critical component of global ocean circulation. However, due to a lack of multidecadal observations, it is not clear how the AC has changed in response to anthropogenic forcing. A recent observational study suggests a broadening and slight weakening of the AC in the past few decades, while others suggest a strengthening of the AC during the historical period. In this paper, we find substantial internal variability of the AC on decadal to multidecadal time scales in high-resolution models. We show that the AC consistently exhibits two modes of decadal and multidecadal (i.e., low frequency) variability in a series of high-resolution climate models: a uniform mode that is largely associated with changes in the AC strength and a dipole mode that is mainly related to width changes of the AC. We demonstrate that the uniform mode is mainly forced externally by the decadal variations of the wind field and presents a decline under global warming, suggesting a weakening of the AC in response to anthropogenic forcing. The dipole mode, on the other hand, is mainly due to internal dynamics and does not show a trend during the historical period. Using a quasigeostrophic model that captures the dipole mode, we attribute the dipole mode to low-frequency potential vorticity changes in the western boundary, driven by a divergence of relative potential vorticity due to eddy activity. Thus, our results present further context for the interpretation of the AC responses in a changing climate based on a short observational record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As observed by remote sensing images in December 2013 and January 2014, chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) bloom occurred on the south side of the Agulhas Current (38°S-45°S). The dynamic mechanisms of Chl-a bloom were studied by satellite remote sensing data, reanalysis data and Argo data. The periodic shedding of the Agulhas ring led to a significant eastward shift of the Agulhas retroflection from December 2013 to January 2014, without the obstruction of flowing complex eddies and with increased current flow. Then, the horizontal transfer of Chl-a occurred along the south side of the Agulhas Current (38°S-45°S). Nitrate concentrations reached 10–15 μmol·L-1 on the south side of the Agulhas Current, where a deepened mixed layer and upwelling and the vertical transport of nutrients contributed to the Chl-a bloom. In addition, sufficient light and suitable precipitation provide good conditions for Chl-a bloom on the south side of the Agulhas Current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modulation of the marine environment in the Natal Bight (~29.1°S, 31.6°E) was studied using daily high-resolution climate reanalysis products and monthly satellite green- and red-band reflectance in the period 2002–2022. The KwaZulu-Natal shelf edge is characterized by a narrow band of upwelling next to the warm Agulhas Current. Strong, reversing longshore winds ~7 m/s and meandering poleward flow ~1 m/s pulse the system, but along the leeward coast that forms the Natal Bight, environmental conditions are buffered by a weak cyclonic gyre. Wind and current shear create a shadow zone that aggregates plankton, recycles nutrients, and sustains marine resources. The seasonal cycle is of high amplitude: the surface heat balance reaches +70 W/m2 in December, followed by river discharges ~3 M m3/yr of fresh nutrient-rich water that peak in February. This induces a buoyant surface layer that inhibits wind wave turbulence during summer. By contrast, winter (June–August) cooling −95 W/m2 and frequent cyclonic storminess deepen the mixed layer from 25 to 65 m, enabling wind wave turbulence to reach the seafloor (Tugela Bank). Red-band reflectance increases 3-fold from summer to winter and is significantly correlated with net heat balance −0.54, daily wave heights > 2.5 m +0.51, mixed layer depth +0.47, sea surface temp −0.41, and wind vorticity −0.39. Daily longshore winds from the northeast and southwest were, unexpectedly, most amplified in spring (August–October). The seasonality exhibits sequential effects that supports year-round marine nutrification in the Natal Bight. Intra-seasonal fluctuations were related to meandering of the Agulhas Current and changes in longshore winds and shelf waves that impart significant pulsing of near-shore currents at 4–9-day periods. Although the cyclonic gyre in the Natal Bight spins up and down, SST variance was found to be relatively low in its center, where external influences are buffered. Considering linear trends for winds and runoff and surface temperature over the period 1950–2021, we found that northeasterlies increased, runoff decreased, and inshore sea surface temperatures have warmed slowly relative to the adjacent land surface temperature. New insights derive from the use of monthly satellite red-band reflectance and daily 10 km climate reanalysis fields to understand how air–land–sea fluxes modulate the marine environment in the Natal Bight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The greater Agulhas Current region is an important component of the climate system, yet its influence on carbon and nutrient cycling is poorly understood. Here, we use nitrate isotopes (δ15N, δ18O, Δ(15–18) = δ15N–δ18O) to trace regional water mass circulation and investigate nitrogen cycling in the Agulhas Current and adjacent recirculating waters. The deep and intermediate waters record processes occurring remotely, including partial nitrate assimilation in the Southern Ocean and denitrification in the Arabian Sea. In the thermocline and surface, tropically sourced waters are biogeochemically distinct from adjacent subtropically sourced waters, confirming inhibited lateral mixing across the current core. (Sub)tropical thermocline nitrate δ15N is lower (4.9–5.8‰) than the sub‐thermocline source, Subantarctic Mode Water (6.9‰); we attribute this difference to local N2 fixation. Using a one‐box model to simulate the newly fixed nitrate flux, we estimate a local N2 fixation rate of 7–25 Tg N.a−1, with the upper limit likely biased high. In the mixed layer, nitrate δ15N and δ18O rise in unison, indicating that phytoplankton nitrate assimilation dominates in surface waters, with nitrification restricted to deeper waters. Because nitrate assimilation and nitrification are vertically decoupled, the rate of nitrate assimilation plus N2 fixation can be used to approximate carbon export. Thermocline and mixed‐layer nitrate Δ(15–18) is low, due to both N2 fixation and coupled partial nitrate assimilation and nitrification. Similarly low‐Δ(15–18) nitrate in Agulhas rings indicates leakage of low‐δ15N nitrogen into the South Atlantic, which should be recorded in the organic matter sinking to the seafloor, providing a potential tracer of past Agulhas leakage. Plain Language Summary: The Agulhas Current is known to transport heat and salt from the warm tropics to the cooler (sub‐)polar regions, but little is known of its nutrient fluxes. Here we use new measurements of the essential phytoplankton nutrient, nitrate, and its isotope ratios to better characterize water circulation and the nitrogen cycle in the Agulhas Current and adjacent waters. Below 500 m, we see evidence of processes that occurred in other ocean basins. Above 500 m, we find that the nearby tropical and subtropical waters that feed the current have different chemistries and do not mix across its fast‐flowing core. In the sunlit surface layer, the dominant nitrogen cycle process is nitrate uptake by phytoplankton, while nitrification, which produces nitrate from organic matter, occurs only in the dark waters below the surface. Additionally, the Agulhas Current and adjacent waters host significant rates of N2 fixation, the process by which atmospheric N2 gas is converted to nitrogen forms that are useable by phytoplankton. This N2 fixation imprints a unique isotopic signature on the nitrate pool below the surface layer, which remains evident in Agulhas waters that enter the South Atlantic, potentially providing a tool to track Agulhas leakage, today and in the past. Key Points: Water masses in the greater Agulhas region have distinct biogeochemical properties that reflect local and remote nitrogen cyclingPhotosynthetic nitrate assimilation dominates the mixed‐layer nitrogen cycle while in situ nitrification is negligibleLocal N2 fixation and internal nitrogen cycling imprint a signal on Indian Ocean nitrate that can be tracked into the Atlantic Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agulhas Current (AC) is a critical component of the global ocean circulation. Climate models consistently project the AC to decline in the 21st century. Previous studies typically attributed the weakening of AC to changes in Indian Ocean wind and/or a decline of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport. However, our analysis suggests that changes in local surface wind and ITF can only explain a portion of the model‐simulated AC changes. Using a hierarchy of models, we show that the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength in a warming climate could also contribute substantially to the AC weakening. Following a weakening of the AMOC, the baroclinic structure of the AC is also modified such that the AC is shoaled to a shallower depth, communicated between basins via Kelvin waves. Our results highlight the importance of remote processes in future western boundary current changes. Plain Language Summary: The Agulhas Current (AC) is one of the strongest currents in the ocean and plays an important role in the climate system. Climate models consistently project a rapid weakening of the AC during the 21st century. Traditionally, the weakening of the AC has been attributed to changes in local surface wind and the Indonesian Throughflow, which transports water from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. However, our analysis suggests these changes cannot fully explain the AC changes in a warming climate. In this study, we show that remote processes in the North Atlantic could also contribute substantially to the AC weakening. In a warming climate, the Atlantic overturning circulation slows down and modifies the density structure of the Atlantic, which propagates into the Indian Ocean via wave processes and causes a weakening and shoaling of the AC. Our results highlight the importance of remote processes in future ocean circulation changes. Key Points: Climate models consistently project the Agulhas Current (AC) to weaken in the 21st centuryChanges in Indo‐Pacific wind and Atlantic overturning both contribute to the projected AC weakeningThe AC becomes shallower in a warming climate mainly due to the weakening of the Atlantic overturning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the recently developed multiscale window transform and multiscale energy and vorticity analysis methods, this study diagnoses the climatological characteristics of the nonlinear mutual interactions among mesoscale eddies, low-frequency (seasonal to interannual) fluctuations, and the decadally modulating mean flow in the Agulhas Retroflection Current System (ARCS). It is found that mesoscale eddies are generated primarily in the retroflection region by mixed barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. The barotropic instability dominates the generation of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) here, contributing power roughly 10 times larger than the baroclinic one. These locally generated eddies are transported away. In the rings drift and meanders regions, the nonlocal transport serves as an important energy source for the eddy field, making a contribution comparable to that of the baroclinic instability for the EKE production. Contrarily, in the stable region, the EKE is generated mainly due to the baroclinic instability. In most of the ARCS area, the kinetic energy (KE) is further transferred inversely from mesoscale eddies to other lower-frequency motions. In particular, in the retroflection, rings drift, and stable regions, the inverse KE cascade plays a leading role in generating seasonal–interannual fluctuations, providing roughly 3–5 times as much power as the forward KE cascade from the mean flow and the advection effect. In the meanders region, however, the forward cascade contributes 4 times more KE to the low-frequency variabilities than the inverse one. All the results provide a model-based benchmark for future studies on physical processes and dynamics at different scales in the ARCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall occurred over the South African east coast during 10–12 April 2022, leading to over 500 deaths and massive damage. This study seeks to understand a key feature, namely the progression of the rainfall maxima from the northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coast during the night of 10–11 April by ~550 km to the Eastern Cape coast about 48 h later. The large-scale circulation was dominated by a cut-off low over the South African interior with a strong ridging anticyclone southeast of the country in the South Indian Ocean. Satellite, rain gauge, and ERA5 reanalysis are used to show that the timing and location of the heaviest rainfall are closely tied to, firstly, the formation of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) at ~0300UTC April 11 on the northern KZN coast which tracked south and then offshore, and secondly, a meso-trough which formed a coastal meso-low by ~2100 UTC April 11. The meso-low tracked south over the warm waters of the Agulhas Current before strengthening into Subtropical Depression Issa. Mesoscale interaction between the MCS and coastal meso-low determined the positioning and timing of the strongest onshore low-level jet, moisture convergence and uplift, and hence the progression of the heavy rainfall down the coast. Such mesoscale interaction has not previously been documented in southern Africa or the Southern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall associated with mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems affected the entire east coast of South Africa during April 2022, leading to flooding and destruction of homes, electricity power lines, and road infrastructure, and leaving 448 people confirmed dead. Therefore, this study investigated the evolution of the two COLs and their impacts, including the occurrence of extreme rainfall and cold weather over the southeast coast of the country. We analysed observed and reanalysis meteorological data and mapped areas at risk to impacts of flood hazards on the east coast of South Africa. Extreme rainfall (>500 mm) accumulated over 16 days was observed along the east coast, with the amount of rainfall progressively decreasing inland. We found that the rainfall associated with the first COL was significantly enhanced by the interactions between a strong low-level onshore airflow across the Agulhas Current and the coastal escarpment, resulting in deep convection and lifting. An unusual surface cyclone with tropical characteristics developed over the subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, driving onshore southeasterly winds which enhanced low-level convergence. Moreover, the flood risk results revealed that, amongst others, land cover/use (52.8%), elevation (16.8%) and lithology (15.5%) were the most important flood predictor variables in this study. Much of the study area was found to have very low (28.33%), low (31.82%), and moderate (21.66%) flood risk, whilst the high- and very-high-risk areas accounted for only 17.5% of the total land area. Nonetheless, the derived flood risk map achieved an acceptable level of accuracy of about 89.9% (Area Under Curve = 0.899). The findings of this study contribute to understanding extreme rainfall events and the vulnerability of settlements on South Africa's east coast to flood risk, which can be used towards natural disaster risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the seasonal and interannual variability of the morphometric characteristics of the Benguela upwelling—shape, area, and length—using satellite measurements of the ocean surface temperature (sear surface temperature (SST)) for 1985–2016. The northern part of the Benguela Upwelling (NBU) (18°–26° S) is characterized by an increase in area from January to July and a minimum in August–December. In the northernmost part of the upwelling (18°–21° S), the largest area is observed in April–August, while it takes on minimal values in January–February and October–November. These changes are associated with the intensification of the southern Angola current, which occurs in February and October, the effect of which can be traced up to 24° S. The maximum in the southern part (28–32°C) of the Benguela upwelling (SBU) is observed for 1–2 months later in May–June, and SBU practically disappears in September–November. In the autumn months, the jet of the northern current of the Agulhas presses against the coast of Africa, contributing to a sharp decrease in the SBU area. On interannual scales, there is a pronounced variability in the upwelling area and the time of its peak. In this case, there is a trend towards an earlier onset of upwelling after 2010. In the northernmost part of the studied area, high values of the upwelling width (150 km) were observed at latitudes of 19°–22° S up to 2000. Then they sharply decrease and the average width decreases almost three times to 50 km. At the same time, there was a sharp increase in the area by the same amount of ~100 km2 at latitudes 23°–28° S. Thus, there was a sharp change in the upwelling shape, while the total upwelling area remained constant. The weakening and decrease in upwelling in its northernmost part is probably caused by the long-term strengthening of the Angola current, which is observed by altimetry data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the first high-resolution geophysical data set collected from the uThukela Banks Marine Protected Area (MPA), we reveal a plethora of hitherto unknown or poorly resolved seabed features. In tandem with several remotely operated vehicle dives, we improve on the previous National Biodiversity Assessment map for the area and reveal a more complex picture of the seabed geology and geomorphology on which the MPA is predicated. The upper slope (-120 m and deeper) is dominated by small canyons, gullies and rills that occasionally extend to the shelf edge and form a series of slumps. Suspected cold-water corals were imaged on the interfluves of the Thukela Canyon. The mid to outer shelf (-60 to -100 m) is mostly rocky, and is composed of Pliocene-age siltstones for the most part. Aeolianite shorelines are found at depths of 60 m and 100 m, in which palaeo-lagoons and parabolic aeolian dune systems are also preserved. These features provide habitat for mesophotic corals and demersal fishes. Overlying and abutting hard rock substrates are unconsolidated sandy sediments that are mobilised by the inshore movement of the Agulhas Current. An inshore mud belt characterised by pockmarks associated with free gas expulsion is mapped for the first time. A well-developed palaeo-drainage pattern is also revealed, posing exciting new opportunities for the study of benthic communities associated with palaeo-estuaries and lagoons now exposed at the seabed. Several new habitats, both inside and out of the MPA boundaries, should form the basis for future research within the MPA, in addition to informing expansions of the MPA. Significance: • Using a newly collected geophysical data set, we provide an unprecedented glimpse into the newly proclaimed uThukela Banks Marine Protected Area. • We reveal a complexity of marine habitats hitherto unknown from previous biodiversity surveys. These habitats include areas of possible expansion given the recognition of keystone species that occur just outside the MPA limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agulhas Current (AC) off the southern tip of Africa is one of the strongest western boundary currents and a crucial choke point of inter-ocean heat and salt exchange between the Indian Ocean and the southern Atlantic Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain concerning the sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) variability in the AC region and their driving mechanisms over longer timescales, due to only short observational datasets being available and the highly dynamic nature of the region. Here, we present an annual coral skeletal Sr/Ca composite record paired with an established composite oxygen isotope record from Ifaty and Tulear reefs in southwestern Madagascar to obtain a 334-year (1661–1995) reconstruction of δ18 O seawater changes related to surface salinity variability in the wider Agulhas Current region. Our new annual δ18 O seawater composite record from Ifaty traces surface salinity of the southern Mozambique Channel and AC core region from the SODA reanalysis between 1958 and 1995. δ18 O seawater appears to be mainly driven by large-scale wind forcing in the southern Indian Ocean on interannual to decadal timescales. The δ18 O seawater and SST at Ifaty show characteristic interannual variability of between 2 and 4 years and interdecadal variability of 8 to 16 years, coherent with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) records. Lagged correlations with the multivariate ENSO index reveals a 1–2-year lag of δ18 O seawater and salinity at Ifaty and the AC region, suggesting that propagation of anomalies by ocean Rossby waves may contribute to salinity changes in the wider southwestern Indian Ocean. The δ18 O seawater and SST reconstructions at Ifaty reveal the highest interannual variability during the Little Ice Age, especially around 1700 CE, which is in agreement with other Indo-Pacific coral studies. Our study demonstrates the huge potential to unlock past interannual and decadal changes in surface ocean hydrology and ocean transport dynamics from coral δ18 O seawater beyond the short instrumental record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global freshwater cycle is intensifying: wet regions are prone to more rainfall, while dry regions experience more drought. Indian Ocean rim countries are especially vulnerable to these changes, but its oceanic freshwater budget—which records the basinwide balance between evaporation, precipitation, and runoff—has only been quantified at three points in time (1987, 2002, 2009). Due to this paucity of observations and large model biases, we cannot yet be sure how the Indian Ocean's freshwater cycle has responded to climate change, nor by how much it varies at seasonal and monthly time scales. To bridge this gap, we estimate the magnitude and variability of the Indian Ocean's freshwater budget using monthly varying oceanic data from May 2016 through April 2018. Freshwater converged into the basin with a mean rate and standard error of 0.35 ± 0.07 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), indicating that basinwide air–sea fluxes are net evaporative. This balance is maintained by salty waters leaving the basin via the Agulhas Current and fresher waters entering northward across the southern boundary and via the Indonesian Throughflow. For the first time, we quantify seasonal and monthly variability in Indian Ocean freshwater convergence to find amplitudes of 0.33 and 0.16 Sv, respectively, where monthly changes reflect variability in oceanic, rather than air–sea, fluxes. Compared with the range of previous estimates plus independent measurements from a reanalysis product, we conclude that the Indian Ocean has remained net evaporative since the 1980s, in contrast to long-term changes in its heat budget. When disentangling anthropogenic-driven changes, these observations of decadal and intra-annual natural variability should be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pongola-Mtamvuna (PM) water management area in southeastern Africa is a highly biodiverse and sensitive region whose rainfall variability is not well understood. It is prone to drought and the occasional devastating flood events which are studied here for the early (October–December) and late summer rainy seasons (January–March) from 1984 to 2019 using CHIRPS daily rainfall data. Over 60% of the top 50 extreme rainfall events occurred during late summer (January–March) with tropical lows being by far the main contributor. The remainder are more or less equally distributed between mesoscale convective systems, tropical-extratropical cloud bands and cut-off lows, the latter contribute in October and November. There is considerable interannual variability in the numbers of these events during the record some of which is related to ENSO. Two prominent exceptions are the wet El Niño of OND 2006 and the dry La Niña of OND 2011, SST anomalies in the greater Agulhas Current region seem to have played an important role in both cases. Far fewer extreme events occurred from 2002 onwards than in the first two decades. However, 7 of the top 50 events occurred during the multi-year drought of 2007–2018 when almost all the late summers as well as many of the early summers experienced below average rainfall. The dry conditions during this period would have been much worse had 7 of the top 50 extreme events not occurred then, highlighting the importance of extreme rainfall event analysis for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is evaluated for historical and projected trends in the period 1950-2100. This region lies next to the warm Indian Ocean and experiences an alternating airflow imposed by subtropical easterly and mid-latitude westerly wind belts. Multi-year wet spells have diminished since 2001 and potential evaporation deficits have spread from the Tugela Valley. Although coastal vegetation is greening and sea temperatures in the Agulhas Current are warming (>0.02·yr-1), there are fewer rain days and less cloud cover. Tropical winds across southern Africa have turned toward Madagascar, re-directing moisture and convection away from KwaZulu-Natal in recent decades. Long-range coupled model projections of monthly rainfall display weak trends over the 21st century (-0.01 mm·day -1·yr-1) which are overshadowed by multi-year fluctuations (r² = 0.04). In contrast, drying trends in potential evaporation are significant (r² = 0.41). Forecasts of seasonal dry spells could mitigate climate change impacts in south-eastern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study critically examines oil spill simulations for a hypothetical 15 day deepwater blowout spill scenario off the east coast of South Africa, coincident with the upper reaches of the Agulhas Current. Our aim is to quantify the impact of submesoscale circulations on the fate of the oil by comparing a submesoscale permitting (2.5 km) versus a mesoscale resolving (7.5 km) ocean model. The bimodal nature of the Agulhas Current plays a crucial role in the fate of the oil. Off the east coast, the relative stability of the current limits shoreline impacts, while downstream the increased variability of the current and its meandering is associated with the generation of submesoscale circulations that drive entrainment of oil onto the continental shelf. Oil entrainment is therefore enhanced in the submesoscale permitting model, and the predicted oiling of South Africa's south coast is found to vary in concert with seasonally varying winds. • We model a 15 day deepwater blowout spill scenario in the Agulhas Current. • Submesoscale ocean features enhance oil entrainment onto the continental shelf. • Shoreline oiling on the south coast is enhanced due to submesoscale variability. • The stability of the Agulhas Current off the east coast restricts shoreline oiling. • In total >2000 km of shoreline are at risk of impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern African climate is strongly impacted by climate change. Precipitation is a key variable in this region as it is linked to agriculture and water supply. An analysis of simulations with a regional atmospheric model over the last decades and the 21st century shows that in the past precipitation has decreased in some coastal areas of South Africa and increased in the rest of southern Africa. However, it is projected to decrease over the whole southern part of the domain in the future. The Agulhas Current System, including the current and the leakage, surrounds the continent in the east and south and it is found to impact precipitation. The reduction in the strength of the Agulhas Current is linked to a reduction in precipitation along the southeast coast. The Agulhas leakage, the part of the Agulhas Current that leaves the system and flows into the South Atlantic, impacts the precipitation in the southwest of the continent, located in the winter rainfall zone. A more intense Agulhas leakage is linked to a reduction in precipitation in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South African coast is known to harbor four different species of intertidal oribatid mites and their distribution strongly correlates with marine ecoregions. Relatively little is known about the dispersal of these organisms and how populations of different locations are connected. To test dispersal abilities and connectivity of these South African species, we performed a morphometric and molecular genetic study. COI gene sequences of two of the widely distributed South African intertidal oribatid mite species revealed clearly contrasting patterns. Halozetes capensis, which occurs in the Agulhas Ecoregion, shows distinct genetic structuring, whereas Fortuynia elamellata micromorpha, which is distributed in the Natal Ecoregion, exhibits gene flow between all populations. The paleoenvironmental history and specific ocean current pattern are suggested to be responsible for these patterns. During the last glacial maximum, the colder climate and the weakening of the Agulhas Current possibly resulted in a bottleneck in the warm-adapted F. e. micromorpha populations, but the subsequent global warming allowed the populations to expand again. The cold-adapted H. capensis populations, on the other hand, experienced no dramatic changes during this period and thus could persist in the Agulhas Ecoregion. Considering transport on ocean currents, the Agulhas Current could be further responsible for the connectivity between the Fortuynia populations. But the deflection of this current in the Agulhas Ecoregion could support the isolation of Halozetes populations. The concomitant morphometric study demonstrated morphological homogeneity among populations of Fortuynia and thus confirms strong connectivity. The Halozetes populations, on the other hand, form two different morphological groups not reflecting geography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]