Search

Abstract Background Predicting diabetic retinopathy (DR) progression could enable individualised screening with prompt referral for high-risk individuals for sight-saving treatment, whilst reducing screening burden for low-risk individuals. We developed and validated deep learning systems (DLS) that predict 1, 2 and 3 year emergent referable DR and maculopathy using risk factor characteristics (tabular DLS), colour fundal photographs (image DLS) or both (multimodal DLS). Methods From 162,339 development-set eyes from south-east London (UK) diabetic eye screening programme (DESP), 110,837 had eligible longitudinal data, with the remaining 51,502 used for pretraining. Internal and external (Birmingham DESP, UK) test datasets included 27,996, and 6928 eyes respectively. Results Internal multimodal DLS emergent referable DR, maculopathy or either area-under-the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.92–0.98), 0.84 (0.82–0.86), 0.85 (0.83–0.87) for 1 year, 0.92 (0.87–0.96), 0.84 (0.82–0.87), 0.85 (0.82–0.87) for 2 years, and 0.85 (0.80–0.90), 0.79 (0.76–0.82), 0.79 (0.76–0.82) for 3 years. External multimodal DLS emergent referable DR, maculopathy or either AUROC were 0.93 (0.88–0.97), 0.85 (0.80–0.89), 0.85 (0.76–0.85) for 1 year, 0.93 (0.89–0.97), 0.79 (0.74–0.84), 0.80 (0.76–0.85) for 2 years, and 0.91 (0.84–0.98), 0.79 (0.74–0.83), 0.79 (0.74–0.84) for 3 years. Conclusions Multimodal and image DLS performance is significantly better than tabular DLS at all intervals. DLS accurately predict 1, 2 and 3 year emergent referable DR and referable maculopathy using colour fundal photographs, with additional risk factor characteristics conferring improvements in prognostic performance. Proposed DLS are a step towards individualised risk-based screening, whereby AI-assistance allows high-risk individuals to be closely monitored while reducing screening burden for low-risk individuals.

Objectives We aim to evaluate estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) patterns of progression in a multiethnic cohort of people with type I diabetes mellitus and with baseline eGFR ≥45 mL/min/1.73 m2.Design Observational cohort.Setting People with a clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, attending two university hospital-based outpatient diabetes clinics, in South London between 2004 and 2018.Participants We studied 1495 participants (52% females, 81% white, 12% African-Caribbean and 7% others).Primary and secondary outcome measures Clinical measures including weight and height, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and laboratory results (such as serum creatinine, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR), HbA1c were collected from electronic health records (EHRs) and eGFR was estimated by the Chronic Kidney Disease–Epidemiology Collaboration. Ethnicity was self-reported.Results Five predominantly linear patterns/groups of eGFR trajectories were identified. Group I (8.5%) had a fast eGFR decline (>3 mL/min/1.73 m2 year). Group II (23%) stable eGFR, group III (29.8%), groups IV (26.3%) and V (12.4%) have preserved eGFR with no significant fall. Group I had the highest proportion (27.6%) of African-Caribbeans. Significant differences between group I and the other groups were observed in age, gender, HbA1C, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol and urine ACR, p

Abstract Diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening images are heterogeneous and contain undesirable non-retinal, incorrect field and ungradable samples which require curation, a laborious task to perform manually. We developed and validated single and multi-output laterality, retinal presence, retinal field and gradability classification deep learning (DL) models for automated curation. The internal dataset comprised of 7743 images from DR screening (UK) with 1479 external test images (Portugal and Paraguay). Internal vs external multi-output laterality AUROC were right (0.994 vs 0.905), left (0.994 vs 0.911) and unidentifiable (0.996 vs 0.680). Retinal presence AUROC were (1.000 vs 1.000). Retinal field AUROC were macula (0.994 vs 0.955), nasal (0.995 vs 0.962) and other retinal field (0.997 vs 0.944). Gradability AUROC were (0.985 vs 0.918). DL effectively detects laterality, retinal presence, retinal field and gradability of DR screening images with generalisation between centres and populations. DL models could be used for automated image curation within DR screening.

Untargeted metabolomics is a powerful tool for measuring and understanding complex biological chemistries. However, employment, bioinformatics and downstream analysis of mass spectrometry (MS) data can be daunting for inexperienced users. Numerous open-source and free-to-use data processing and analysis tools exist for various untargeted MS approaches, including liquid chromatography (LC), but choosing the ‘correct’ pipeline isn’t straight-forward. This tutorial, in conjunction with a user-friendly online guide presents a workflow for connecting these tools to process, analyse and annotate various untargeted MS datasets. The workflow is intended to guide exploratory analysis in order to inform decision-making regarding costly and time-consuming downstream targeted MS approaches. We provide practical advice concerning experimental design, organisation of data and downstream analysis, and offer details on sharing and storing valuable MS data for posterity. The workflow is editable and modular, allowing flexibility for updated/changing methodologies and increased clarity and detail as user participation becomes more common. Hence, the authors welcome contributions and improvements to the workflow via the online repository. We believe that this workflow will streamline and condense complex mass-spectrometry approaches into easier, more manageable, analyses thereby generating opportunities for researchers previously discouraged by inaccessible and overly complicated software.

Introduction The successful treatment of type 1 diabetes (T1D) requires those affected to employ insulin therapy to maintain their blood glucose levels as close to normal to avoid complications in the long-term. The Dose Adjustment For Normal Eating (DAFNE) intervention is a group education course designed to help adults with T1D develop and sustain the complex self-management skills needed to adjust insulin in everyday life. It leads to improved glucose levels in the short term (manifest by falls in glycated haemoglobin, HbA1c), reduced rates of hypoglycaemia and sustained improvements in quality of life but overall glucose levels remain well above national targets. The DAFNEplus intervention is a development of DAFNE designed to incorporate behavioural change techniques, technology and longer-term structured support from healthcare professionals (HCPs).Methods and analysis A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in adults with T1D, delivered in diabetes centres in National Health Service secondary care hospitals in the UK. Centres will be randomised on a 1:1 basis to standard DAFNE or DAFNEplus. Primary clinical outcome is the change in HbA1c and the primary endpoint is HbA1c at 12 months, in those entering the trial with HbA1c >7.5% (58 mmol/mol), and HbA1c at 6 months is the secondary endpoint. Sample size is 662 participants (approximately 47 per centre); 92% power to detect a 0.5% difference in the primary outcome of HbA1c between treatment groups. The trial also measures rates of hypoglycaemia, psychological outcomes, an economic evaluation and process evaluation.Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was granted by South West-Exeter Research Ethics Committee (REC ref: 18/SW/0100) on 14 May 2018. The results of the trial will be published in a National Institute for Health Research monograph and relevant high-impact journals.Trial registration number ISRCTN42908016.

Fatigue is a common symptom in those presenting with symptomatic COVID-19 infection. However, it is unknown if COVID-19 results in persistent fatigue in those recovered from acute infection. We examined the prevalence of fatigue in individuals recovered from the acute phase of COVID-19 illness using the Chalder Fatigue Score (CFQ-11). We further examined potential predictors of fatigue following COVID-19 infection, evaluating indicators of COVID-19 severity, markers of peripheral immune activation and circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines. Of 128 participants (49.5 ± 15 years; 54% female), more than half reported persistent fatigue (67/128; 52.3%) at median of 10 weeks after initial COVID-19 symptoms. There was no association between COVID-19 severity (need for inpatient admission, supplemental oxygen or critical care) and fatigue following COVID-19. Additionally, there was no association between routine laboratory markers of inflammation and cell turnover (leukocyte, neutrophil or lymphocyte counts, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein) or pro-inflammatory molecules (IL-6 or sCD25) and fatigue post COVID-19. Female gender and those with a pre-existing diagnosis of depression/anxiety were over-represented in those with fatigue. Our findings demonstrate a significant burden of post-viral fatigue in individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection after the acute phase of COVID-19 illness. This study highlights the importance of assessing those recovering from COVID-19 for symptoms of severe fatigue, irrespective of severity of initial illness, and may identify a group worthy of further study and early intervention.

Background: People with psychotic disorders have reduced life expectancy largely because of physical health problems, especially cardiovascular disease, that are complicated by the use of tobacco and cannabis. Objectives: We set out to (1) chart lifestyle and substance use choices and the emergence of cardiometabolic risk from the earliest presentation with psychosis, (2) develop a pragmatic health promotion intervention integrated within the clinical teams to improve the lifestyle choices and health outcomes of people with psychosis and (3) evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of that health promotion intervention. Design: We performed a longitudinal cohort study of people presenting with their first episode of psychosis in three mental health trusts and followed up participants for 1 year [work package 1, physical health and substance use measures in first episode of psychosis (PUMP)]. We used an iterative Delphi methodology to develop and refine a modular health promotion intervention, improving physical health and reducing substance use in psychosis (IMPaCT) therapy, which was to be delivered by the patient’s usual care co-ordinator and used motivational interviewing techniques and cognitive–behavioural therapy to improve health choices of people with psychosis (work package 2). We then conducted a multicentre, two-arm, parallel-cluster, randomised controlled trial to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using the intervention with people with established psychosis (work package 3: IMPaCT randomised controlled trial) in five UK mental health trusts. The work took place between 2008 and 2014. Participants: All people aged between 16 and 65 years within 6 months of their first presentation with a non-organic psychosis and who were proficient in English were eligible for inclusion in the PUMP study. Participants in the work package 2 training development were staff selected from a range of settings, working with psychosis. Participants in the phase 3 Delphi consensus and manual development comprised three expert groups of (1) therapists/researchers recruited from the local and national community, (2) clinicians and (3) service users, each of whom took part in two iterative review and feedback sessions. For work package 3, IMPaCT randomised controlled trial, care co-ordinators in participating community mental health teams who were permanently employed and had a minimum of four eligible patients (i.e. aged between 18 and 65 years with a diagnosis of a psychotic disorder) on their caseload were eligible to participate. In studies 1 and 3, patient participants were ineligible if they were pregnant or had a major illness that would have had an impact on their metabolic status or if they had a significant learning disability. All participants were included in the study only after giving written confirmed consent. Main outcome measures: Cardiometabolic risk markers, including rates of obesity and central obesity, and levels of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and lipids, were the main outcomes in work package 1 (PUMP), with descriptive data presented on substance use. Our primary outcome measure for the IMPaCT randomised controlled trial was the physical or mental health component Short Form questionnaire-36 items quality-of-life scores at 12 months. Results: Obesity rates rose from 18% at first presentation with psychosis to 24% by 1 year, but cardiometabolic risk was not associated with baseline lifestyle and substance use choices. Patterns of increase in the levels of HbA1c over the year following first presentation showed variation by ethnic group. We recruited 104 care co-ordinators, of whom 52 (with 213 patients) were randomised to deliver IMPaCT therapy and 52 (with 193 patients) were randomised to deliver treatment as usual, in keeping with our power calculations. Of these 406 participants with established psychosis, 318 (78%) and 301 (74%) participants, respectively, attended the 12- and 15-month follow-ups. We found no significant effect of IMPaCT therapy compared with treatment as usual on the physical or mental health component Short Form questionnaire-36 items scores at either time point in an intention-to-treat analysis [physical health score (‘d’) –0.17 at 12 months and –0.09 at 15 months; mental health score (‘d’) 0.03 at 12 months and –0.05 at 15 months] or on costs. Nor did we find an effect on other cardiovascular risk indicators, including diabetes, except in the case of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, which showed a trend for greater benefit with IMPaCT therapy than with treatment as usual (treatment effect 0.085, 95% confidence interval 0.007 to 0.16; p = 0.034). Limitations: Follow-up in work package 1 was challenging, with 127 out of 293 participants attending; however, there was no difference in cardiometabolic measures or demographic factors at baseline between those who attended for follow-up and those who did not. In work package 3, the IMPaCT randomised controlled trial, care co-ordinators struggled to provide additional time to their patients that was devoted to the health promotion intervention on top of their usual clinical care contact with them. Conclusions: Cardiometabolic risk is prominent even soon after first presentation with psychosis and increases over time. Lifestyle choices and substance use habits at first presentation do not predict those who will be most cardiometabolically compromised 1 year later. Training and supervising care co-ordinators to deliver a health promotion intervention to their own patients on top of routine care is not effective in the NHS for improving quality of life or reducing cardiometabolic risk. Future work: Further work is needed to develop and evaluate effective, cost-effective and affordable ways of preventing the emergence of and reversing existing cardiometabolic risk indicators in people with psychosis. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN58667926. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 8, No. 1. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract Background There is mounting evidence that people with severe mental illness have unhealthy lifestyles, high rates of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, and greater risk of early mortality. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a health promotion intervention seeking to improve physical health and reduce substance use in people with psychosis. Methods Participants with a psychotic disorder, aged 18-65 years old and registered on an enhanced care approach programme or equivalent were recruited from community mental health teams in six mental health trusts in England. Participants were randomisation to either standard community mental health team care (treatment as usual) or treatment as usual with an integrated health promotion intervention (IMPaCT). Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses from health and social care and societal perspectives were conducted alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial. Total health and social care costs and total societal costs at 12 and 15 months were calculated as well as cost-effectiveness (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves) at 15 months based on quality of life (SF-36 mental and physical health components, primary outcome measures) and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) using two measures, EQ-5D-3 L and SF-36. Data were analysed using bootstrapped regressions with covariates for relevant baseline variables. Results At 12-15 months 301 participants had full data needed to be included in the economic evaluation. There were no differences in adjusted health and social care costs (£95, 95% CI -£1410 to £1599) or societal costs (£675, 95% CI -£1039 to £2388) between the intervention and control arms. Similarly, there were no differences between the groups in the SF-36 mental component (−0.80, 95% CI -3.66 to 2.06), SF-36 physical component (−0.68, 95% CI -3.01 to 1.65), QALYs estimated from the SF-36 (−0.00, −0.01 to 0.00) or QALYs estimated from the EQ-5D-3 L (0.00, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.02). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves for all four outcomes and from both cost perspectives indicate that the probability of the health promotion intervention being cost-effective does not exceed 0.4 for willingness to pay thresholds ranging from £0-£50,000. Conclusions Alongside no evidence of additional quality of life/clinical benefit, there is also no evidence of cost-effectiveness. Trial registration ISRCTN58667926 . Date retrospectively registered: 23/04/2010. Recruitment start date: 01/03/2010.

Abstract Background People with psychosis have a reduced life expectancy of 10–20 years, largely due to cardiovascular disease. This trial aimed to determine the effectiveness of a modular health promotion intervention (IMPaCT Therapy) in improving health and reducing cardiovascular risk in psychosis. Methods A multicentre, two arm, parallel cluster RCT was conducted across five UK mental health NHS trusts. Community care coordinators (CC) were randomly assigned to training and supervision in delivering IMPaCT Therapy or treatment as usual (TAU) to current patients with psychosis (cluster). The primary outcome was the physical and mental health subscales of the Short form-36 (SF-36) questionnaire. Results Of 104 care coordinators recruited, 52 (with 213 patients) were randomised to deliver IMPaCT therapy and 52 (with 193 patients) randomised to TAU. Of 406 patients, 318 (78%) and 301 (74%) attended 12- and 15-month follow-up respectively. IMPaCT therapy showed no significant effect on the physical or mental health component SF-36 scores versus TAU at 12 or 15 months. No effect was observed for cardiovascular risk indicators, except for HDL cholesterol, which improved more with IMPACT therapy than TAU (Treatment effect (95% CI); 0.085 (0.007 to 0.16); p = 0.034). The 22% of patients who received >180 min of IMPACT Therapy in addition to usual care achieved a greater reduction in waist circumference than did controls, which was clinically significant. Conclusion Training and supervising community care coordinators to use IMPaCT therapy in patients with psychosis is insufficient to significantly improve physical or mental health quality of life. The search for effective, pragmatic interventions deliverable in health care services continues. Trial registration The trial was retrospectively registered with ISRCTN registry on 23/4/2010 at ISRCTN58667926 ; recruitment started on 01/03/2010 with first randomization on 09.08.2010 ISRCTN58667926 .

Background: Panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) has been the standard of care for patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) for the last 40 years. It prevents severe visual loss in PDR but is also associated with adverse effects on visual functions. Objectives: The clinical efficacy and mechanistic evaluation of aflibercept for proliferative diabetic retinopathy (CLARITY) trial evaluated the clinical efficacy, mechanisms and cost-effectiveness of intravitreal aflibercept (Eylea®, Regeneron, Tarrytown, NY, USA/Bayer Pharma AG, Berlin, Germany therapy for PDR. Design: A multicentre, prospective, individually randomised, single-masked, active-controlled trial with concurrent economic evaluation that tested the non-inferiority of intravitreal aflibercept versus standard care PRP at 52 weeks. A subset of the participants enrolled in a mechanistic evaluation substudy. Setting: 22 UK NHS clinical sites. Participants: Patients aged at least 18 years having either treatment-naive PDR or active retinal neovascularisation (NV) despite prior PRP requiring treatment and best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) of 54 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letters or better in the study eye were included. Eyes with evidence of macular oedema at baseline confirmed by central subfield thickness > 320 µm on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography were excluded. Intervention: In the intervention arm, intravitreal aflibercept injections were given at baseline, 4 and 8 weeks and patients were subsequently reviewed every month and injected pro re nata based on the treatment response defined by degree of regression of retinal NV. In the comparator arm, PRP was completed in 2-weekly sessions and then supplemented if necessary at 8-weekly intervals. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the mean change in BCVA at 52 weeks utilising a linear mixed-effects model incorporating data from both week 12 and week 52. Results: A total of 232 participants (116 per arm) were recruited between August 2014 and November 2015. A total of 221 and 210 participants contributed to the intention-to-treat (ITT) model and per-protocol (PP) analysis, respectively. Economic evaluation was undertaken on 202 participants (101 per arm) with complete cost and outcome data. Aflibercept was non-inferior and superior to PRP in both the ITT population [mean BCVA difference 3.9 letters, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3 to 5.6 letters; p

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica are an extreme polar desert. Mineral soils support subsurface microbial communities and translucent rocks support development of hypolithic communities on ventral surfaces in soil contact. Despite significant research attention relatively little is known about taxonomic and functional diversity or their inter-relationships. Here we report a combined diversity and functional interrogation for soil and hypoliths of the Miers Valley in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. The study employed 16S rRNA fingerprinting and high throughput sequencing combined with the GeoChip functional microarray. The soil community was revealed as a highly diverse reservoir of bacterial diversity dominated by actinobacteria. Hypolithic communities were less diverse and dominated by cyanobacteria. Major differences in putative functionality were that soil communities displayed greater diversity in stress tolerance and recalcitrant substrate utilization pathways, whilst hypolithic communities supported greater diversity of nutrient limitation adaptation pathways. A relatively high level of functional redundancy in both soil and hypoliths may indicate adaptation of these communities to fluctuating environmental conditions.

Background: Many adults with type 1 diabetes cannot self-manage their diabetes effectively and die prematurely with diabetic complications as a result of poor glucose control. Following the positive results obtained from a randomised controlled trial (RCT) by the Dose Adjustment For Normal Eating (DAFNE) group, published in 2002, structured training is recommended for all adults with type 1 diabetes in the UK. Aim: With evidence that blood glucose control is not always improved or sustained, we sought to determine factors explaining why some patients benefit from training more than other patients, identifying barriers to successful self-management, while developing other models to make skills training more accessible and effective. Findings: We confirmed that glycaemic outcomes are not always improved or sustained when the DAFNE programme is delivered routinely, although improvements in psychosocial outcomes are maintained. DAFNE courses and follow-up support is needed to help participants instil and habituate key self-management practices such as regular diary/record keeping. DAFNE graduates need structured professional support following training. This is currently either unavailable or provided ad hoc without a supporting evidence base. Demographic and psychosocial characteristics had minimal explanatory power in predicting glycaemic control but good explanatory power in predicting diabetes-specific quality of life over the following year. We developed a DAFNE course delivered for 1 day per week over 5 weeks. There were no major differences in outcomes between this and a standard 1-week DAFNE course; in both arms of a RCT, glycaemic control improved by less than in the original DAFNE trial. We piloted a course delivering both the DAFNE programme and pump training. The pilot demonstrated the feasibility of a full multicentre RCT and resulted in us obtaining subsequent Health Technology Assessment programme funding. In collaboration with the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Diabetes Research Programme at King’s College Hospital (RG-PG-0606-1142), London, an intervention for patients with hypoglycaemic problems, DAFNE HART (Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating Hypoglycaemia Awareness Restoration Training), improved impaired hypoglycaemia awareness and is worthy of a formal trial. The health economic work developed a new type 1 diabetes model and confirmed that the DAFNE programme is cost-effective compared with no structured education; indeed, it is cost-saving in the majority of our analyses despite limited glycated haemoglobin benefit. Users made important contributions but this could have been maximised by involving them with grant writing, delaying training until the group was established and funding users’ time off work to maximise attendance. Collecting routine clinical data to conduct continuing evaluated roll-out is possible but to do this effectively requires additional administrator support and/or routine electronic data capture. Conclusions: We propose that, in future work, we should modify the current DAFNE curricula to incorporate emerging understanding of behaviour change principles to instil and habituate key self-management behaviours that include key DAFNE competencies. An assessment of numeracy, critical for insulin dose adjustment, may help to determine whether or not additional input/support is required both before and after training. Models of structured support involving professionals should be developed and evaluated, incorporating technological interventions to help overcome the barriers identified above and enable participants to build effective self-management behaviours into their everyday lives. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01069393. Funding: The NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.