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The original version of this Article contained an error in Table 2, where the number of individuals in the “All Amazonia” row was reported as 11,6431 instead of 116,431. Also, the original version of this Article contained an error in the Methods, where the R2 for the proportion of broken/uprooted dead trees increase per year was reported as 0.12, the correct value being 0.06. The original version of this Article contained errors in the author affiliations. The affiliation of Gerardo A. Aymard C. with UNELLEZGuanare, Herbario Universitario (PORT), Portuguesa, Venezuela Compensation International Progress S.A. Ciprogress–Greenlife.

1. Gold mining has rapidly increased across the Amazon Basin in recent years, especially in the Guiana shield, where it is responsible for >90% of total deforestation. However, the ability of forests to recover from gold mining activities remains largely unquantified. 2. Forest inventory plots were installed on recently abandoned mines in two major mining regions in Guyana, and re‐censused 18 months later, to provide the first ground‐based quantification of gold mining impacts on Amazon forest biomass recovery. 3. We found that woody biomass recovery rates on abandoned mining pits and tailing ponds are among the lowest ever recorded for tropical forests, with close to no woody biomass recovery after 3–4 years. 4. On the overburden sites (i.e. areas not mined but where excavated soil is deposited), however, above‐ground biomass recovery rates (0.4–5.4 Mg ha−1 year−1) were within the range of those recorded in other secondary forests across the Neotropics following abandonment of pastures and agricultural lands. 5. Our results suggest that forest recovery is more strongly limited by severe mining‐induced depletion of soil nutrients, especially nitrogen, than by mercury contamination, due to slowing of growth in nutrient‐stripped soils. 6. We estimate that the slow recovery rates in mining pits and ponds currently reduce carbon sequestration across Amazonian secondary forests by ~21,000 t C/year, compared to the carbon that would have accumulated following more traditional land uses such as agriculture or pasture. 7. Synthesis and applications. To achieve large‐scale restoration targets, Guyana and other Amazonian countries will be challenged to remediate previously mined lands. The recovery process is highly dependent on nitrogen availability rather than mercury contamination, affecting woody biomass regrowth. The significant recovery in overburden zones indicates that one potential active remediation strategy to promote biomass recovery may be to backfill mining pits and ponds with excavated soil.

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and the growing demand for water have increased the water risks worldwide. Water scarcity is one of the main challenges of the 21st century, and the assessment of water risks is only possible from spatially distributed records of historical climate and levels of water reservoirs. One potential method to assess water supply is the reconstruction of oxygen isotopes in rainfall. We here investigated the use of tree-ring stable isotopes in urban trees to assess spatial/temporal variation in precipitation and level of water reservoirs. We analyzed the intra-annual variation of δ13C and δ18O in the tree rings of Tipuana tipu trees from northern and southern Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), Brazil. While variation in δ13C indicates low leaf-level enrichments from evapotranspiration, δ18O variation clearly reflects precipitation extremes. Tree-ring δ18O was highest during the 2014 drought, associated with the lowest historical reservoir levels in the city. The δ18O values from the middle of the tree rings have a strong association with the mid-summer precipitation (r = −0.71), similar to the association between the volume of precipitation and its δ18O signature (r = −0.76). These consistent results allowed us to test the association between tree-ring δ18O and water-level of the main reservoirs that supply the MASP. We observed a strong association between intra-annual tree-ring δ18O and the water-level of reservoirs in the northern and southern MASP (r = −0.94, r = −0.90, respectively). These results point to the potential use of high-resolution tree-ring stable isotopes to put precipitation extremes, and water supply, in a historical perspective assisting public policies related to water risks and climate change. The ability to record precipitation extremes, and previously reported capacity to record air pollution, place Tipuana tipu in a prominent position as a reliable environmental monitor for urban locations.

São Paulo, Brazil has experienced severe water shortages and record low levels of its water reservoirs in 2013–2014. We evaluate the contributions of Amazon deforestation and climate change to low precipitation levels using a modelling approach, and address whether similar precipitation anomalies might occur more frequently in a warming world. Precipitation records from INMET show that the dry anomaly extended over a fairly large region to the north of São Paulo. Unique features of this event were anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Southern Atlantic, an extension of the sub tropical high into the São Paulo region and moisture flux divergence over São Paulo. The SST anomalies were very similar in 2013/14 and 2014/15, suggesting they played a major role in forcing the dry conditions. The SST anomalies consisted of three zonal bands: a cold band in the tropics, a warm band to the south of São Paulo and another cold band poleward of 40 S. We performed ensemble climate simulations with observed SSTs prescribed, vegetation cover either fixed at 1870 levels or varying over time, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) either fixed at pre-industrial levels (280 ppm CO₂) or varying over time. These simulations exhibit similar precipitation deficits over the São Paulo region in 2013/14. From this, we infer that SST patterns and the associated large-scale state of the atmosphere were important factors in determining the precipitation anomalies, while deforestation and increased GHGs only weakly modulated the signal. Finally, analyses of future climate simulations from CMIP5 models indicate that the frequency of such precipitation anomalies is not likely to change in a warmer climate.

Watson acknowledges a Natural Environment Research Council–funded Doctoral Training Grant (NE/K500847/1). Cooper acknowledges a Leeds Anniversary Research Scholarship (Ph.D.) and a Climate Research Bursary Fund from the Priestley International Centre for Climate (University of Leeds). Human-induced climate change is causing rapid melting of ice in many volcanically active regions. Over glacial-interglacial time scales changes in surface loading exerted by large variations in glacier size affect the rates of volcanic activity. Numerical models suggest that smaller changes in ice volume over shorter time scales may also influence rates of mantle melt generation. However, this effect has not been verified in the geological record. Furthermore, the time lag between climatic forcing and a resultant change in the frequency of volcanic eruptions is unknown. We present empirical evidence that the frequency of volcanic eruptions in Iceland was affected by glacial extent, modulated by climate, on multicentennial time scales during the Holocene. We examine the frequency of volcanic ash deposition over northern Europe and compare this with Icelandic eruptions. We identify a period of markedly reduced volcanic activity centered on 5.5-4.5 ka that was preceded by a major change in atmospheric circulation patterns, expressed in the North Atlantic as a deepening of the Icelandic Low, favoring glacial advance on Iceland. We calculate an apparent time lag of ~600 yr between the climate event and change in eruption frequency. Given the time lag identified here, increase in volcanic eruptions due to ongoing deglaciation since the end of the Little Ice Age may not become apparent for hundreds of years. Publisher PDF

Every year, a dense smoke haze covers a large portion of South America originating from fires in the Amazon Basin and central parts of Brazil during the dry biomass burning season between August and October. Over a large portion of South America, the average aerosol optical depth at 550 nm exceeds 1.0 during the fire season, while the background value during the rainy season is below 0.2. Biomass burning aerosol particles increase scattering and absorption of the incident solar radiation. The regional-scale aerosol layer reduces the amount of solar energy reaching the surface, cools the near-surface air, and increases the diffuse radiation fraction over a large disturbed area of the Amazon rainforest. These factors affect the energy and CO2 fluxes at the surface. In this work, we applied a fully integrated atmospheric model to assess the impact of biomass burning aerosols in CO2 fluxes in the Amazon region during 2010. We address the effects of the attenuation of global solar radiation and the enhancement of the diffuse solar radiation flux inside the vegetation canopy. Our results indicate that biomass burning aerosols led to increases of about 27 % in the gross primary productivity of Amazonia and 10 % in plant respiration as well as a decline in soil respiration of 3 %. Consequently, in our model Amazonia became a net carbon sink; net ecosystem exchange during September 2010 dropped from +101 to −104 TgC when the aerosol effects are considered, mainly due to the aerosol diffuse radiation effect. For the forest biome, our results point to a dominance of the diffuse radiation effect on CO2 fluxes, reaching a balance of 50–50 % between the diffuse and direct aerosol effects for high aerosol loads. For C3 grasses and savanna (cerrado), as expected, the contribution of the diffuse radiation effect is much lower, tending to zero with the increase in aerosol load. Taking all biomes together, our model shows the Amazon during the dry season, in the presence of high biomass burning aerosol loads, changing from being a source to being a sink of CO2 to the atmosphere.

Various studies report substantial increases in intrinsic water-use efficiency (Wi), estimated using carbon isotopes in tree rings, suggesting trees are gaining increasingly more carbon per unit water lost due to increases in atmospheric CO2. Usually, reconstructions do not, however, correct for the effect of intrinsic developmental changes in Wi as trees grow larger. Here we show, by comparingWi across varying tree sizes at one CO2 level, that ignoring such developmental effects can severely affect inferences of trees' Wi. Wi doubled or even tripled over a trees' lifespan in three broadleaf species due to changes in tree height and light availability alone, and there are also weak trends for Pine trees. Developmental trends in broadleaf species are as large as the trends previously assigned to CO2 and climate. Credible future tree ring isotope studies require explicit accounting for species-specific developmental effects before CO2 and climate effects are inferred.

We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry and transport and an ensemble Kalman filter to simultaneously infer regional fluxes of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from GOSAT retrievals of XCH4 : XCO2, using sparse ground-based CH4 and CO2 mole fraction data to anchor the ratio. This work builds on the previously reported theory that takes into account that (1) these ratios are less prone to systematic error than either the full-physics data products or the proxy CH4 data products; and (2) the resulting CH4 and CO2 fluxes are self-consistent. We show that a posteriori fluxes inferred from the GOSAT data generally outperform the fluxes inferred only from in situ data, as expected. GOSAT CH4 and CO2 fluxes are consistent with global growth rates for CO2 and CH4 reported by NOAA and have a range of independent data including new profile measurements (0–7 km) over the Amazon Basin that were collected specifically to help validate GOSAT over this geographical region. We find that large-scale multi-year annual a posteriori CO2 fluxes inferred from GOSAT data are similar to those inferred from the in situ surface data but with smaller uncertainties, particularly over the tropics. GOSAT data are consistent with smaller peak-to-peak seasonal amplitudes of CO2 than either the a priori or in situ inversion, particularly over the tropics and the southern extratropics. Over the northern extratropics, GOSAT data show larger uptake than the a priori but less than the in situ inversion, resulting in small net emissions over the year. We also find evidence that the carbon balance of tropical South America was perturbed following the droughts of 2010 and 2012 with net annual fluxes not returning to an approximate annual balance until 2013. In contrast, GOSAT data significantly changed the a priori spatial distribution of CH4 emission with a 40 % increase over tropical South America and tropical Asia and a smaller decrease over Eurasia and temperate South America. We find no evidence from GOSAT that tropical South American CH4 fluxes were dramatically affected by the two large-scale Amazon droughts. However, we find that GOSAT data are consistent with double seasonal peaks in Amazonian fluxes that are reproduced over the 5 years we studied: a small peak from January to April and a larger peak from June to October, which are likely due to superimposed emissions from different geographical regions.

We constructed a whole carbon budget for a catchment in the Western Amazon Basin, combining drainage water analyses with eddy covariance measured terrestrial CO2 fluxes. As fluvial C export can represent permanent C export it must be included in assessments of whole site C balance, but is rarely done. The footprint area of the flux tower is drained by two small streams (~5-7 km2) from which we measured the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) export and CO2 efflux. The EC measurements showed the site C balance to be +0.7 ± 9.7 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (a source to the atmosphere) and fluvial export was 0.3 ± 0.04 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. Of the total fluvial loss 34% was DIC, 37% DOC and 29% POC. The wet season was most important for fluvial C export. There was a large uncertainty associated with the EC results and with previous biomass plot studies (-0.5 ± 4.1 Mg C ha-1 yr-1), hence it cannot be concluded with certainty whether the site is C sink or source. The fluvial export corresponds to only 3-7 % of the uncertainty related to the site C balance, thus other factors need to be considered to reduce the uncertainty and refine the estimated C balance. However, stream C export is significant, especially for almost neutral sites where fluvial loss may determine the direction of the site C balance. The fate of C downstream then dictates the overall climate impact of fluvial export.

The Amazon Basin contains large wetland ecosystems which are important sources of methane (CH4). Spaceborne observations of atmospheric CH4 can provide constraints on emissions from these remote ecosystems, but lack of validation precludes robust estimates. We present the first validation of CH4 columns in the Amazon from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) using aircraft measurements of CH4 over five sites across the Amazon Basin. These aircraft profiles, combined with stratospheric results from the TOMCAT chemical transport model, are vertically integrated allowing direct comparison to the GOSAT XCH4 measurements (the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of CH4). The measurements agree within uncertainties or show no significant difference at three of the aircraft sites, with differences ranging from −1.9 ppb to 6.6 ppb, while at two sites GOSAT XCH4 is shown to be slightly higher than aircraft measurements, by 8.1 ppb and 9.7 ppb. The seasonality in XCH4 seen by the aircraft profiles is also well captured (correlation coefficients from 0.61 to 0.90). GOSAT observes elevated concentrations in the northwest corner of South America in the dry season and enhanced concentrations elsewhere in the Amazon Basin in the wet season, with the strongest seasonal differences coinciding with regions in Bolivia known to contain large wetlands. Our results are encouraging evidence that these GOSAT CH4 columns are generally in good agreement with in situ measurements, and understanding the magnitude of any remaining biases between the two will allow more confidence in the application of XCH4 to constrain Amazonian CH4 fluxes.

The growth in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations over the past 2 decades has shown large variability on a timescale of several years. Prior to 1999 the globally averaged CH4 concentration was increasing at a rate of 6.0 ppb yr−1, but during a stagnation period from 1999 to 2006 this growth rate slowed to 0.6 ppb yr−1. From 2007 to 2009 the growth rate again increased to 4.9 ppb yr−1. These changes in growth rate are usually ascribed to variations in CH4 emissions. We have used a 3-D global chemical transport model, driven by meteorological reanalyses and variations in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations derived from CH3CCl3 observations from two independent networks, to investigate these CH4 growth variations. The model shows that between 1999 and 2006 changes in the CH4 atmospheric loss contributed significantly to the suppression in global CH4 concentrations relative to the pre-1999 trend. The largest factor in this is relatively small variations in global mean OH on a timescale of a few years, with minor contributions of atmospheric transport of CH4 to its sink region and of atmospheric temperature. Although changes in emissions may be important during the stagnation period, these results imply a smaller variation is required to explain the observed CH4 trends. The contribution of OH variations to the renewed CH4 growth after 2007 cannot be determined with data currently available.

The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: −0.43 Mg ha−1, confidence interval (CI): −1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades1, 2, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics3, particularly in the Amazon4. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity5. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale1, 2, and is contrary to expectations based on models6.

Summary: Leaf dark respiration (R dark ) is an important yet poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle. Given this, we analyzed a new global database of R dark and associated leaf traits. Data for 899 species were compiled from 100 sites (from the Arctic to the tropics). Several woody and nonwoody plant functional types (PFTs) were represented. Mixed-effects models were used to disentangle sources of variation in R dark . Area-based R dark at the prevailing average daily growth temperature (T) of each site increased only twofold from the Arctic to the tropics, despite a 20°C increase in growing T (8-28°C). By contrast, R dark at a standard T (25°C, R dark 25 ) was threefold higher in the Arctic than in the tropics, and twofold higher at arid than at mesic sites. Species and PFTs at cold sites exhibited higher R dark 25 at a given photosynthetic capacity (V cmax 25 ) or leaf nitrogen concentration ([N]) than species at warmer sites. R dark 25 values at any given V cmax 25 or [N] were higher in herbs than in woody plants. The results highlight variation in R dark among species and across global gradients in T and aridity. In addition to their ecological significance, the results provide a framework for improving representation of R dark in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and associated land-surface components of Earth system models (ESMs). © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Interannual variability in the global land carbon sink is strongly related to variations in tropical temperature and rainfall. This association suggests an important role for moisture-driven fluctuations in tropical vegetation productivity, but empirical evidence to quantify the responsible ecological processes is missing. Such evidence can be obtained from tree-ring data that quantify variability in a major vegetation productivity component: woody biomass growth. Here we compile a pantropical tree-ring network to show that annual woody biomass growth increases primarily with dry-season precipitation and decreases with dry-season maximum temperature. The strength of these dry-season climate responses varies among sites, as reflected in four robust and distinct climate response groups of tropical tree growth derived from clustering. Using cluster and regression analyses, we find that dry-season climate responses are amplified in regions that are drier, hotter and more climatically variable. These amplification patterns suggest that projected global warming will probably aggravate drought-induced declines in annual tropical vegetation productivity. Our study reveals a previously underappreciated role of dry-season climate variability in driving the dynamics of tropical vegetation productivity and consequently in influencing the land carbon sink.

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted—modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster-growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits. These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but large-scale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth–survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality., Tree mortality has been shown to be the dominant control on carbon storage in Amazon forests, but little is known of how and why Amazon forest trees die. Here the authors analyse a large Amazon-wide dataset, finding that fast-growing species face greater mortality risk, but that slower-growing individuals within a species are more likely to die, regardless of size.

One of the major challenges in ecology is to understand how ecosystems respond to changes inenvironmental conditions, and how taxonomic and functional diversity mediate these changes. Inthis study, we use a trait-spectra and individual-based model, to analyse variation in forest primaryproductivity along a 3.3 km elevation gradient in the Amazon-Andes. The model accuratelypredicted the magnitude and trends in forest productivity with elevation, with solar radiation andplant functional traits (leaf dry mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration, andwood density) collectively accounting for productivity variation. Remarkably, explicit representationof temperature variation with elevation was not required to achieve accurate predictions offorest productivity, as trait variation driven by species turnover appears to capture the effect oftemperature. Our semi-mechanistic model suggests that spatial variation in traits can potentiallybe used to estimate spatial variation in productivity at the landscape scale. Fil: Fyllas, Nikolaos M.. University of Oxford; Reino Unido Fil: Patrick Bentley, Lisa. University of Oxford; Reino Unido Fil: Shenkin, Alexander. University of Oxford; Reino Unido Fil: Asner, Gregory P.. Carnegie Institution for Science. Department of Global Ecology; Reino Unido Fil: Atkin, Owen K.. The Australian National University. ARC Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology. Research School of Biology; Australia Fil: Díaz, Sandra Myrna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; Argentina Fil: Enquist, Brian J.. Arizona State University; Estados Unidos Fil: Farfan Rios, William. University Wake Forest; Estados Unidos Fil: Gloor, Emanuel. University of Leeds; Reino Unido Fil: Guerrieri, Rossella. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; España. University of Edinburgh; Reino Unido Fil: Huaraca Huasco, Walter. Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco; Perú Fil: Ishida, Yoko. James Cook University; Australia Fil: Martin, Roberta E.. Carnegie Institution for Science. Department of Global Ecology; Estados Unidos Fil: Meir, Patrick. University of Edinburgh; Reino Unido. The Australian National University. Research School of Biology. Division of Plant Sciences; Australia Fil: Phillips, Oliver. University of Leeds; Reino Unido Fil: Salinas, Norma. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; Perú Fil: Silman, Miles. University Wake Forest; Estados Unidos Fil: Weerasinghe, Lasantha K.. The Australian National University. Research School of Biology. Division of Plant Sciences; Australia Fil: Zaragoza Castells, Joana. The Australian National University. Research School of Biology. Division of Plant Sciences; Australia. University of Exeter; Reino Unido Fil: Malhi, Yadvinder. University of Oxford; Reino Unido