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We consider the distribution of fruit pigeons of the genera Ptilinopus and Ducula on the island of New Guinea. Of the 21 species, between six and eight coexist inside humid lowland forests. We conducted or analyzed 31 surveys at 16 different sites, resurveying some sites in different years. The species coexisting at any single site in a single year are a highly nonrandom selection of the species to which that site is geographically accessible. Their sizes are both much more widely spread and more uniformly spaced than in random sets of species drawn from the locally available species pool. We also present a detailed case study of a highly mobile species that has been recorded on every ornithologically explored island in the West Papuan island group west of New Guinea. That species’ rareness on just three well-surveyed islands within the group cannot be due to an inability to reach them. Instead, its local status decreases from abundant resident to rare vagrant in parallel with increasing weight proximity of the other resident species.

In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, demographic processes—the vagaries of births, deaths and sex ratio fluctuations—pose substantial threats to wild giant panda populations. Additionally, climate change and plans for the Giant Panda National Park may influence (in opposing directions) the extinction risk for wild giant pandas. The Fourth National Giant Panda Census showed pandas living in 33 isolated populations. An estimated 259 animals live in 25 of these groups, ~14% of the total population. We used individual-based models to simulate time series of these small populations for 100 years. We analysed the spatial pattern of their risk of extinction under current conditions and multiple climate change models. Furthermore, we consider the impact of the proposed Giant Panda National Park. Results showed that 15 populations face a risk >90%, and for 3 other populations the risk is >50%. Of the 15 most at-risk populations, national parks can protect only 3. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the 33 populations will probably further divide into 56 populations. Some 41 of them will face a risk >50% and 35 face a risk >90%. Although national parks will probably connect some fragmented habitats, 26 populations will be outside national park planning. Our study gives practical advice for conservation policies and management and has implications for the conservation of other species in the world that live in isolated, fragmented habitats. The authors model likely outcomes for the 33 isolated populations reported in the Fourth National Giant Panda Census under multiple RCP scenarios and with the provision of the planned Giant Panda National Park. They find that, although the National Park may connect some fragmented habitats, most of the populations with high extinction risk fall outside the current plans.

Conservation science is a new and evolving discipline, so it seems prudent to explore different approaches. That said, we should examine what we know and, vitally, what works to conserve biodiversity and what does not. Ecosystem processes determine the fate of many species, but many attempts to theorise about ecosystems have led to ever more fanciful descriptions of nature. All conservation is local. It will only succeed if we find ways to accommodate people and nature. That does not mean indigenous knowledge acquired over millennia will be sufficient to our ever more overcrowded planet. Observational and experimental studies of small populations of wild species, however, do provide practical insights into how to manage biodiversity across much larger geographical extents.

How has the global network of protected areas developed - and which decisions have guided this development? Answering these questions may give insight into what might be possible in the next decade. In 2021, China will host the Convention of Biological Diversity's Conference, which will influence the coming decade's agenda. We consider how China expanded its protected areas in the last half-century. Did concerns about biodiversity protection drive those decisions, or were other factors responsible? Like other countries, China has protected remote places with few people that are unusually cold or dry or both. Despite that, species with small geographical ranges that have the highest risk of extinction are better protected than expected. Importantly, while the growth of total area and number of protected areas has slowed for the last decade, increases in protection of forested ecosystems and the species they contain have steadily increased. China's future reserve expansion must consider where to protect biodiversity, not just how much area to protect.

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats.” In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Accurate maps of species ranges are essential to inform conservation, but time-consuming to produce and update. Given the pace of change of knowledge about species distributions and shifts in ranges under climate change and land use, a need exists for timely mapping approaches that enable batch processing employing widely available data. We develop a systematic approach of batch-processing range maps and derived Area of Habitat maps for terrestrial bird species with published ranges below 125,000 km2 in Central and South America. (Area of Habitat is the habitat available to a species within its range.) We combine existing range maps with the rapidly expanding crowd-sourced eBird data of presences and absences from frequently surveyed locations, plus readily accessible, high resolution satellite data on forest cover and elevation to map the Area of Habitat available to each species. Users can interrogate the maps produced to see details of the observations that contributed to the ranges. Previous estimates of Areas of Habitat were constrained within the published ranges and thus were, by definition, smaller—typically about 30%. This reflects how little habitat within suitable elevation ranges exists within the published ranges. Our results show that on average, Areas of Habitat are 12% larger than published ranges, reflecting the often-considerable extent that eBird records expand the known distributions of species. Interestingly, there are substantial differences between threatened and non-threatened species. Some 40% of Critically Endangered, 43% of Endangered, and 55% of Vulnerable species have Areas of Habitat larger than their published ranges, compared with 31% for Near Threatened and Least Concern species. The important finding for conservation is that threatened species are generally more widespread than previously estimated.

Different models of community dynamics, such as the MacArthur–Wilson theory of island biogeography and Hubbell’s neutral theory, have given us useful insights into the workings of ecological communities. Here, we develop the niche-hypervolume concept of the community into a powerful model of community dynamics. We describe the community’s size through the volume of the hypercube and the dynamics of the populations in it through the fluctuations of the axes of the niche hypercube on different timescales. While the community’s size remains constant, the relative volumes of the niches within it change continuously, thus allowing the populations of different species to rise and fall in a zero-sum fashion. This dynamic hypercube model reproduces several key patterns in communities: lognormal species abundance distributions, 1/f-noise population abundance, multiscale patterns of extinction debt and logarithmic species-time curves. It also provides a powerful framework to explore significant ideas in ecology, such as the drift of ecological communities into evolutionary time.

The U.N. has declared 2021-2030 the 'decade of restoration' (https://www.decadeonrestoration.org). This initiative aspires to many actions, but its agenda must include 'reconnecting nature'. Even when natural habitats remain, they often come in fragments too small or isolated to sustain viable populations. Human activities surround habitats with unsuitable areas or constrict animals' movements with artificial barriers, such as roads or fences. The harm this fragmentation causes is evident. Here, we discuss various actions to mitigate its problems, seeking explicit evidence of their efficacy. These actions range from small-scale, controlled experiments to continent-wide programmes to allow species the freedom to roam. Even simple connections, such as highway overpasses or tunnels, usually allow movement such that the genetic and demographic problems that beset small, isolated populations may be diminished. Showing that species move when we give them the chance to do so may be a sufficient measure of success, even if we do not always understand the consequences in detail.

Long-term studies to understand biodiversity changes remain scarce-especially so for tropical mountains. We examined changes from 1911 to 2016 in the bird community of the cloud forest of San Antonio, a mountain ridge in the Colombian Andes. We evaluated the effects of past land-use change and assessed species vulnerability to climate disruption. Forest cover decreased from 95% to 50% by 1959, and 33 forest species were extirpated. From 1959 to 1990, forest cover remained stable, and an additional 15 species were lost-a total of 29% of the forest bird community. Thereafter, forest cover increased by 26% and 17 species recolonized the area. The main cause of extirpations was the loss of connections to adjacent forests. Of the 31 (19%) extirpated birds, 25 have ranges peripheral to San Antonio, mostly in the lowlands. Most still occurred regionally, but broken forest connections limited their recolonization. Other causes of extirpation were hunting, wildlife trade, and water diversion. Bird community changes included a shift from predominantly common species to rare species; forest generalists replaced forest specialists that require old growth, and functional groups, such as large-body frugivores and nectarivores, declined disproportionally. All water-dependent birds were extirpated. Of the remaining 122 forest species, 19 are vulnerable to climate disruption, 10 have declined in abundance, and 4 are threatened. Our results show unequivocal species losses and changes in community structure and abundance at the local scale. We found species were extirpated after habitat loss and fragmentation, but forest recovery stopped extirpations and helped species repopulate. Land-use changes increased species vulnerability to climate change, and we suggest reversing landscape transformation may restore biodiversity and improve resistance to future threats.Extirpaciones de Aves y las Dinámicas Comunitarias en un Bosque Nuboso Andino durante más de Cien Años de Cambios de Uso de Suelo Resumen Los estudios a largo plazo para entender cambios en la biodiversidad todavía son escasos - especialmente en las montañas tropicales. Examinamos los cambios en la comunidad de aves del bosque de San Antonio en los Andes colombianos, desde 1911 hasta 2016. Evaluamos los efectos pasados del cambio en el uso del suelo y analizamos la vulnerabilidad de las especies ante la disrupción climática. La cobertura del bosque disminuyó del 95% al 50% para el año 1959, y 33 especies de bosque fueron extirpadas. Desde 1959 y hasta 1990, la cobertura permaneció estable y se perdieron 15 especies más - un total del 29% de la comunidad de aves de bosque. A partir de ahí la cobertura del bosque incrementó en un 26% y 17 especies recolonizaron el área. La principal causa de las extirpaciones fue la pérdida de conectividad con los bosques adyacentes. De las 31 (19%) especies de aves extirpadas, 25 especies tienen una distribución periférica a San Antonio, principalmente en las tierras bajas. La mayoría de las especies aún tenían presencia regional, pero las conexiones rotas entre los bosques limitaron su recolonización. Otras causas de las extirpaciones fueron la caza, el mercado de fauna y el desvío de cursos de agua. Los cambios en la comunidad de aves incluyeron una transición de especies predominantemente comunes a especies raras; las especies generalistas de bosque reemplazaron a las especies especialistas que requieren bosques maduros y los grupos funcionales, como los grandes frugívoros y nectarívoros, declinaron desproporcionadamente. Todas las aves dependientes del agua fueron extirpadas. De las 122 especies que permanecen en el bosque, 19 son vulnerables a la disrupción climática, diez han disminuido en abundancia y cuatro se encuentran amenazadas. Nuestros resultados muestran una pérdida inequívoca de especies y cambios en la estructura y abundancia de la comunidad de aves a escala local. En general, encontramos que las especies fueron extirpadas después de la pérdida y fragmentación del hábitat, pero la recuperación del bosque detuvo las extirpaciones y ayudó a las especies a recolonizar. Los cambios en el uso de suelo incrementaron la vulnerabilidad de las especies ante el cambio climático, por lo que sugerimos que revertir la transformación del paisaje podría restaurar la biodiversidad y aumentar la resistencia a futuras amenazas.目前, 关于生物多样性变化的长期研究还很少见, 特别是在热带山区。我们研究了哥伦比亚安第斯山脉圣安东尼奥地区一个云雾林在 1911-2016 年间的鸟类群落变化。本研究评估了过去土地利用变化的影响和物种对气候变化的脆弱性。 1911-1959 年, 该地区森林覆盖率由 95% 下降到 50%, 33 种森林物种局部灭绝。 1959-1990 年, 森林覆盖率保持稳定, 但仍有 15 种鸟类绝迹, 占森林鸟类群落总数的 29% 。此后, 森林覆盖率增加了 26%, 且有 17 个物种在该地区重新定殖。物种局部灭绝的主要原因是相邻森林之间的连接被破坏。在 31 种 (19%) 灭绝的鸟类中, 25 种在圣安东尼奥周围也有分布, 且主要在低地地区。这些鸟类大多仍有区域性分布, 但森林连接被破坏限制了它们重新定殖。局部灭绝的其它原因还包括狩猎、野生动物贸易和引水工程。鸟类群落的变化包括占优势的鸟种从常见种向稀有种转变; 森林中的广幅种取代了需要原始林的狭域种; 而包括大型食果动物和食蜜动物在内的功能群则不成比例地减少。所有依赖水体的鸟类都消失了。在残余的 122 种森林物种中, 19 种易受到气候变化的影响, 10 种种群数量已大量下降, 还有 4 种受到胁迫。我们的研究结果展现了局部尺度上明确的物种灭绝和种群结构及数量变化。一般来说, 栖息地丧失和破碎化会导致物种局部灭绝, 但森林恢复可以阻止灭绝, 并帮助物种重建种群。土地利用变化增加了物种对气候变化的脆弱性, 我们认为逆转景观改造有助于恢复生物多样性, 并提高物种对未来威胁的抵抗力。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species includes assessment of extinction risk for 98 512 species, plus documentation of their range, habitat, elevation, and other factors. These range, habitat and elevation data can be matched with terrestrial land cover and elevation datasets to map the species’ area of habitat (AOH; also known as extent of suitable habitat; ESH). This differs from the two spatial metrics used for assessing extinction risk in the IUCN Red List criteria: extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). AOH can guide conservation, for example, through targeting areas for field surveys, assessing proportions of species’ habitat within protected areas, and monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation. We recommend that IUCN Red List assessments document AOH wherever practical., Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 34 (11), ISSN:0169-5347, ISSN:1872-8383

Three well-supported generalizations in conservation biology are that developing tropical countries will experience the greatest biodiversity declines in the near future, they are some of the least studied areas in the world, and in these regions especially, protection requires local community support. We assess these generalizations in an evaluation of protected areas in India. The 5% of India officially protected covers most ecoregions and protected areas have been an important reason why India has suffered no documented species extinctions in the past 70 years. India has strong legislation favouring conservation, government investment focused on 50 Tiger Reserves, and government compensation schemes that facilitate local support, all of which brighten future prospects. However, many protected areas are too small to maintain a full complement of species, making connectivity and species use of buffer zones a crucial issue. Conservation success and challenges vary across regions according to their development status. In less developed areas, notably the biodiverse northeast Himalaya, protected areas maintaining the highest biodiversity result from locally-focused efforts by dedicated individuals. Across India, we demonstrate considerable opportunities to increase local income through ecotourism. Our evaluation confirms a lack of data, increasing threats, and the importance of local support. Research on biodiversity in buffer zones, development of long-term monitoring schemes, and assessment of cash and conservation benefits from tourism are in particular need. For policy makers, two main goals should be the development of monitoring plans for ‘eco-sensitive zones’ around protected areas, and a strong emphasis on preserving established protected areas.

As a landscape becomes increasingly fragmented through habitat loss, the individual patches become smaller and more isolated and thus less likely to sustain a local population. Metapopulation theory is appropriate for analyzing fragmented landscapes because it combines empirical landscape features with species‐specific information to produce direct information on population extinction risks. This approach contrasts with descriptions of habitat fragments, which provide only indirect information on risk. Combining a spatially explicit metapopulation model with empirical data on endemic species’ ranges and maps of habitat cover, we calculated the metapopulation capacity—a measure of a landscape's ability to sustain a metapopulation. Mangroves provide an ideal model landscape because they are of conservation concern and their patch boundaries are easily delineated. For 2000–20015, we calculated global metapopulation capacity for 99 metapopulations of 32 different bird species endemic to mangroves. Northern Australia and Southeast Asia had the highest richness of mangrove endemic birds. The Caribbean, Pacific coast of Central America, Madagascar, Borneo, and isolated patches in Southeast Asia in Myanmar and Malaysia had the highest metapopulation losses. Regions with the highest loss of habitat area were not necessarily those with the highest loss of metapopulation capacity. Often, it was not a matter of how much, but how the habitat was lost. Our method can be used by managers to evaluate and prioritize a landscape for metapopulation persistence., Article impact statement: Application of metapopulation theory shows where area of habitat loss is highest; metapopulation capacity is not necessarily also the highest.

Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline biodiversity studies to understanding the processes behind evolution across dynamic regions such as the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We review research, including species catalogues, biodiversity monitoring, the origins, distributions, maintenance, and threats to biodiversity, biodiversity-related ecosystem function and services, and species and ecosystems' responses to global change. Next, we identify priority topics, offer suggestions and priorities for future biodiversity research in China. These priorities include 1) the ecology and biogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains, and that of subtropical and tropical forests across China; 2) marine and inland aquatic biodiversity, and 3) effective conservation and management to identify and maintain synergies between biodiversity and socio-economic development to fulfil China's vision for becoming an ecological civilization. In addition, we propose three future strategies: 1) translate advanced biodiversity science into practice for biodiversity conservation; 2) strengthen capacity building and application of advanced technology, including high-throughput sequencing, genomics, and remote sensing; 3) strengthen and expand international collaborations. Based on the recent rapid progress of biodiversity research, China is well-positioned to become a global leader in biodiversity research in the near future.

Evidence-based approaches are key for underpinning effective conservation practice, but major gaps in the evidence of the effectiveness of interventions limit their use. Conservation practitioners could make major contributions to filling these gaps but often lack the time, funding, or capacity to do so properly. Many funders target the delivery of conservation and can be reluctant to fund primary research. We analysed the literature testing the effectiveness of interventions. Of a sample of 1,265 publications published in 2019 that tested conservation interventions, 96% included academics. Only 21% included conservation practitioners, of which just under half were first or last author. A community of conservation funders and practitioners undertook a series of workshops to explore means of improving the quality and quantity of intervention testing. A survey of the suggested proportion of conservation grants that should be allocated to testing intervention effectiveness showed practitioners tended to prefer larger percentages (median 3-6%) than funders (median 1-3%), but the overlap was considerable. Funders can facilitate the testing of interventions through a range of measures, including welcoming applications that incorporate testing, allocating funds to testing, and providing training and support to deliver testing. The funders represented by the authors of this paper have committed to these actions. Practitioners can contribute by committing to routine testing, benefiting from funding allocated specifically to testing, and establishing processes for testing interventions. The organisations of the practitioner authors have committed to test at least one intervention per year and share findings, regardless of outcome. Currently, practitioners rarely lead the testing of conservation actions. We suggest processes by which both funders and practitioners can make this routine. This will not only improve the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of practice, but also make conservation more attractive to funders.

The cause of deaths of 350 elephants in 2020 in a relatively small unprotected area of northern Botswana is unknown, and may never be known. Media speculations about it ignore ecological realities. Worse, they make conjectures that can be detrimental to wildlife and sometimes discredit conservation incentives. A broader understanding of the ecological and conservation issues speaks to elephant management across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area that extends across Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Our communication addresses these. Malicious poisoning and poaching are unlikely to have played a role. Other species were unaffected, and elephant carcases had their tusks intact. Restriction of freshwater supplies that force elephants to use pans as a water source possibly polluted by blue-green algae blooms is a possible cause, but as yet not supported by evidence. No other species were involved. A contagious disease is the more probable one. Fences and a deep channel of water confine these elephants’ dispersal. These factors explain the elephants’ relatively high population growth rate despite a spell of increased poaching during 2014–2018. While the deaths represent only ~2% of the area’s elephants, the additive effects of poaching and stress induced by people protecting their crops cause alarm. Confinement and relatively high densities probably explain why the die-off occurred only here. It suggests a re-alignment or removal of fences that restrict elephant movements and limits year-round access to freshwater.

Although conventional wisdom considers knowledge of threatened species’ ecology and status essential for conservation, few studies demonstrate this in a quantitative way across many species and within the same political entity. Here, we evaluated the impacts of scientific research against conservation interventions (including funding) and species-level correlates, accounting for phylogenetic relatedness, on the conservation of 162 threatened mammal species in China. We did so at three levels: global (all scientific papers published on the species), regional (a subset of the global papers that included at least one author from a local organization) and regional conservation-related (a subset of the regional papers that focused only on ecology and conservation). In addition to protected-area coverage and certain biological traits, regional conservation-related research emerged as an important predictor of species recovery. The same was not the case for global research. We should particularly encourage future regional research effort that has direct relevance to specific conservation issues.

China has implemented forest policies and expanded protected areas to halt deforestation and protect giant panda habitats. These policies simultaneously encouraged local communities to raise livestock that then freely range in forests. This grazing had unintended consequences. As an alternative livelihood, it has become the most prevalent human disturbance across the panda's range. How do free-ranging livestock impact giant panda habitats and what are the implications for future conservation and policy on a larger scale? We use Wanglang National Nature Reserve as a case study. It has seen a nine-fold livestock increase during past 15 years. We combined bamboo survey plots, GPS collar tracking, long-term monitoring, and species distribution modelling incorporating species interaction to understand the impacts across spatial and temporal scales. Our results showed that livestock, especially horses, lead to a significant reduction of bamboo biomass and regeneration. The most intensively used areas by livestock are in the valleys, which are also the areas that pandas prefer. Adding livestock presence to predictive models of the giant panda's distribution yielded a higher accuracy and suggested livestock reduce panda habitat by 34%. Pandas were driven out of the areas intensively used by livestock. We recommend the nature reserve carefully implement a livestock ban and prioritise removing horses because they cause the greater harm. To give up livestock, local communities prefer long-term subsidies or jobs to a one-time payment. Thus, we recommend the government provide payments for ecosystem services that create jobs in forest stewardship or tourism while reducing the number of domestic animals.

“Sustainability”, “resilience”, and other terms group under the heading of “stability.” Their ubiquity speaks to a vital need to characterise changes in complex social and environmental systems. In a bewildering array of terms, practical measurements are essential to permit comparisons and so untangle underlying relationships.

Summary To counter their widespread loss, global aspirations are for no net loss of remaining wetlands [ 1 ]. We examine whether this goal alone is sufficient for managing China’s wetlands, for they constitute 10% of the world’s total. Analyzing wetland changes between 2000 and 2015 using 30-m-resolution satellite images, we show that China’s wetlands expanded by 27,614 km2 but lost 26,066 km2—a net increase of 1,548 km2 (or 0.4%). This net change hides considerable complexities in the types of wetlands created and destroyed. The area of open water surface increased by 9,110 km2, but natural wetlands—henceforth “marshes”—decreased by 7,562 km2. Of the expanded wetlands, restoration policies contributed 24.5% and dam construction contributed 20.8%. Climate change accounted for 23.6% but is likely to involve a transient increase due to melting glaciers. Of the lost wetlands, agricultural and urban expansion contributed 47.7% and 13.8%, respectively. The increase in wetlands from conservation efforts (6,765 km2) did not offset human-caused wetland losses (16,032 km2). The wetland changes may harm wildlife. The wetland loss in east China threatens bird migration across eastern Asia [ 2 ]. Open water from dam construction flooded the original habitats of threatened terrestrial species and affected aquatic species by fragmenting wetland habitats [ 3 ]. Thus, the “no net loss” target measures total changes without considering changes in composition and the corresponding ecological functions. It may result in “paper offsets” and should be used carefully as a target for wetland conservation.

International audience; Human actions challenge nature in many ways. Ecological responses are ineluctably complex, demanding measures that describe them succinctly. Collectively, these measures encapsulate the overall ‘stability’ of the system. Many international bodies, including the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, broadly aspire to maintain or enhance ecological stability. Such bodies frequently use terms pertaining to stability that lack clear definition. Consequently, we cannot measure them and so they disconnect from a large body of theoretical and empirical understanding. We assess the scientific and policy literature and show that this disconnect is one consequence of an inconsistent and one‐dimensional approach that ecologists have taken to both disturbances and stability. This has led to confused communication of the nature of stability and the level of our insight into it. Disturbances and stability are multidimensional. Our understanding of them is not. We have a remarkably poor understanding of the impacts on stability of the characteristics that define many, perhaps all, of the most important elements of global change. We provide recommendations for theoreticians, empiricists and policymakers on how to better integrate the multidimensional nature of ecological stability into their research, policies and actions.

The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from “endangered” to “vulnerable” that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species., Biological Conservation, 234, ISSN:0006-3207, ISSN:1873-2917

International audience; The terms sustainability, resilience and others group under the heading of ‘stability’. Their ubiquity speaks to a vital need to characterize changes in complex social and environmental systems. In a bewildering array of terms, practical measurements are essential to permit comparisons and so untangle underlying relationships.

We discuss institutional reforms to China's protected area management. Currently (as elsewhere), protected areas suffer fragmented management, lack of a comprehensive classification, inadequate coverage of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and divided, inconsistent legislation. We recommend establishing a new system of protected area management that can address past difficulties by using ongoing institutional reforms as unprecedented opportunities.

We analyze recently-collected feather tissues from two species of seabirds, the sooty tern (Onychoprion fuscatus) and brown noddy (Anous stolidus), in three ocean regions (North Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific) with different human impacts. The species are similar morphologically and are similar in the trophic levels from which they feed within each location. In contrast, we detect reliable differences in trophic position amongst the regions. Trophic position appears to decline as the intensity of commercial fishing increases, and is at its lowest in the Caribbean. The spatial gradient in trophic position we document in these regions exceeds those detected over specimens from the last 130 years in the Hawaiian Islands. Modeling suggests that climate velocity and human impacts on fish populations strongly align with these differences.

International audience; Nothing validates our concerns about Rockström et al.’s work more than their response to our critique of it. First, they state ‘a planetary boundary … is not equivalent to a global threshold or tipping point’. While we appreciate this statement, we struggle with understanding their distinctions between tipping points, planetary boundaries, safe operating space, resilience, and irreversible changes, terms we show permeate their work from its onset to the present.

Just protecting Earth’s wilderness will not be sufficient to conserve most of its species; quality, not overall size, matters., It is theoretically possible to protect large fractions of species in relatively small regions. For plants, 85% of species occur entirely within just over a third of the Earth’s land surface, carefully optimized to maximize the species captured. Well-known vertebrate taxa show similar patterns. Protecting half of Earth might not be necessary, but would it be sufficient given the current trends of protection? The predilection of national governments is to protect areas that are “wild,” that is, typically remote, cold, or arid. Unfortunately, those areas often hold relatively few species. Wild places likely afford the easier opportunities for the future expansion of protected areas, with the expansion into human-dominated landscapes the greater challenge. We identify regions that are not currently protected, but that are wild, and consider which of them hold substantial numbers of especially small-ranged vertebrate species. We assess how successful the strategy of protecting the wilder half of Earth might be in conserving biodiversity. It is far from sufficient. (Protecting large wild places for reasons other than biodiversity protection, such as carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services, might still have importance.) Unexpectedly, we also show that, despite the bias in establishing large protected areas in wild places to date, numerous small protected areas are in biodiverse places. They at least partially protect significant fractions of especially small-ranged species. So, while a preoccupation with protecting large areas for the sake of getting half of Earth might achieve little for biodiversity, there is more progress in protecting high-biodiversity areas than currently appreciated. Continuing to prioritize the right parts of Earth, not just the total area protected, is what matters for biodiversity.

The notion of a ‘safe operating space for biodiversity’ is vague and encourages harmful policies. Attempts to fix it strip it of all meaningful content. Ecology is rapidly gaining insights into the connections between biodiversity and ecosystem stability. We have no option but to understand ecological complexity and act accordingly.

The giant panda attracts disproportionate conservation resources. How well does this emphasis protect other endemic species? Detailed data on geographical ranges are not available for plants or invertebrates, so we restrict our analyses to 3 vertebrate taxa: birds, mammals, and amphibians. There are gaps in their protection, and we recommend practical actions to fill them. We identified patterns of species richness, then identified which species are endemic to China, and then which, like the panda, live in forests. After refining each species' range by its known elevational range and remaining forest habitats as determined from remote sensing, we identified the top 5% richest areas as the centers of endemism. Southern mountains, especially the eastern Hengduan Mountains, were centers for all 3 taxa. Over 96% of the panda habitat overlapped the endemic centers. Thus, investing in almost any panda habitat will benefit many other endemics. Existing panda national nature reserves cover all but one of the endemic species that overlap with the panda's distribution. Of particular interest are 14 mammal, 20 bird, and 82 amphibian species that are inadequately protected. Most of these species the International Union for Conservation of Nature currently deems threatened. But 7 mammal, 3 bird, and 20 amphibian species are currently nonthreatened, yet their geographical ranges are

Technologies to identify individual animals, follow their movements, identify and locate animal and plant species, and assess the status of their habitats remotely have become better, faster, and cheaper as threats to the survival of species are increasing. New technologies alone do not save species, and new data create new problems. For example, improving technologies alone cannot prevent poaching: solutions require providing appropriate tools to the right people. Habitat loss is another driver: the challenge here is to connect existing sophisticated remote sensing with species occurrence data to predict where species remain. Other challenges include assembling a wider public to crowdsource data, managing the massive quantities of data generated, and developing solutions to rapidly emerging threats.

Estimates of global forest area vary widely; this discrepancy is now shown to originate primarily from ambiguity in the definition of ‘forest’. Monitoring and reporting should focus on measures more directly relevant to ecosystem function. Deforestation is a major driver of climate change1 and the major driver of biodiversity loss1,2. Yet the essential baseline for monitoring forest cover—the global area of forests—remains uncertain despite rapid technological advances and international consensus on conserving target extents of ecosystems3. Previous satellite-based estimates4,5 of global forest area range from 32.1 × 106 km2 to 41.4 × 106 km2. Here, we show that the major reason underlying this discrepancy is ambiguity in the term ‘forest’. Each of the >800 official definitions6 that are capable of satellite measurement relies on a criterion of percentage tree cover. This criterion may range from >10% to >30% cover under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change7. Applying the range to the first global, high-resolution map of percentage tree cover8 reveals a discrepancy of 19.3 × 106 km2, some 13% of Earth’s land area. The discrepancy within the tropics alone involves a difference of 45.2 Gt C of biomass, valued at US$1 trillion. To more effectively link science and policy to ecosystems, we must now refine forest monitoring, reporting and verification to focus on ecological measurements that are more directly relevant to ecosystem function, to biomass and carbon, and to climate and biodiversity.

The global total of protected areas to conserve biodiversity is increasing steadily, while numerous studies show that they are broadly effective. That said, how will current conservation strategies work, given the current and expected changes to the global climate? The giant panda is a conservation icon and exceptional efforts protect its remaining habitats. It provides a unique case study to address this question. There are many studies on the projected loss of habitats as climate warms, but few consider the geographical arrangement of future habitats, current protected area, and species’ dispersal abilities. Most alarmingly, we expect much greater habitat fragmentation after climate change. Here, we combine long-term data on giant pandas with climate-change scenarios to predict future habitat loss and distribution in the Min Shan of Sichuan and Gansu, China. We employ metapopulation capacity as a mechanistic measure of a species’ response to habitat fragmentation. The results show that climate changes will lead to 16.3 ± 1.4 (%) losses of giant panda habitats. Alarmingly, 11.4% of the remaining habitat fragments would be smaller than the extinction threshold area as the extent of fragmentation increases nearly fourfold. The projected fragmentation of giant panda habitats predicts 9% lower effectiveness inside the protected area network compared with that outside of reserves. A 35% reduction will occur in future effectiveness of reserve networks. The results challenge the long-term effectiveness of protected areas in protecting the species’ persistence. They indicate a need for integrating both natural processes and dynamic threats over a simple reliance on individual static natural reserves.

The Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and the Atlantic Forest of Brazil are two of the most fragmented biodiversity hotspots. Species–area relationships predict that their habitat fragments will experience a substantial loss of species. Most of these extinctions will occur over an extended time, and therefore, reconnecting fragments could prevent species losses and allow locally extinct species to recolonize former habitats. An empirical relaxation half-life vs. area relationship for tropical bird communities estimates the time that it takes to lose one-half of all species that will be eventually lost. We use it to estimate the increase in species persistence by regenerating a forest connection 1 km in width among the largest and closest fragments at 11 locations. In the Eastern Arc Mountains, regenerating 8,134 ha of forest would create >316,000 ha in total of restored contiguous forest. More importantly, it would increase the persistence time for species by a factor of 6.8 per location or ∼2,272 years, on average, relative to individual fragments. In the Atlantic Forest, regenerating 6,452 ha of forest would create >251,000 ha in total of restored contiguous forest and enhance species persistence by a factor of 13.0 per location or ∼5,102 years, on average, relative to individual fragments. Rapidly regenerating forest among fragments is important, because mean time to the first determined extinction across all fragments is 7 years. We estimate the cost of forest regeneration at $21–$49 million dollars. It could provide one of the highest returns on investment for biodiversity conservation worldwide.

Migratory seabirds face threats from climate change and a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Although most seabird research has focused on the ecology of individuals at the colony, technological advances now allow researchers to track seabird movements at sea and during migration. We combined telemetry data on Onychoprion fuscatus (sooty terns) with a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset from the Dry Tortugas National Park to map the movements at sea for this species, calculate estimates of mortality, and investigate the impact of hurricanes on a migratory seabird. Included in the latter analysis is information on the locations of recovered bands from deceased individuals wrecked by tropical storms. We present the first known map of sooty tern migration in the Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate that the birds had minor overlaps with areas affected by the major 2010 oil spill and a major shrimp fishery. Indices of hurricane strength and occurrence are positively correlated with annual mortality and indices of numbers of wrecked birds. As climate change may lead to an increase in severity and frequency of major hurricanes, this may pose a long-term problem for this colony.