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• This paper constructed a framework for green water assessment in the Loess Plateau gully region using MIKE SHE model. • A new concept and extraction method for green water components was defined based on existing research. • A new concept of the potential of green water was defined in relation to the dried soil layers' classification indicators. • We assessed the dependence on green water components and potential for environmental changes. Exponentially increasing water demand and increasingly uncertain hydrological conditions due to climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) undoubtedly pose significant challenges to the sustainability of water systems in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, and even more so in the rain-fed agricultural area of the Loess Plateau (LP) in China, where green water supports all ecological landscapes and most agriculture. Therefore, an accurate assessment of green water resources is crucial for regional development. This paper constructed a comprehensive framework for assessing green water resources based on the MIKE SHE model, defined a new concept of green water components (GWCs) that can be extracted based on existing studies, proposes the potential of green water (GW P), and present a research methodology. To validate this research framework, we applied it to a typical basin in the LP gully area of the Nanxiaohegou (NXHG) basin. The model was calibrated using runoff data from basin outlet stations to extract four GWCs: high-efficiency green water (GW H), low-efficiency green water (GW L), unused green water (GW U), ineffective green water (GW I). We then assessed the GW P of the basin and analyzed its trends, consistency, and dependence on changing environments. The assessment framework is simple and easy to use, providing valuable information for regional revegetation and basin water management, and is highly recommended for replication in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A framework for analyzing urban resilience through the life circle lens was developed. • The spatial match between urban pressures and resilience was examined. • Strategies for a multi-center, cluster-type urban resilience typology were outlined. • A people-oriented resilient planning was advocated. This paper presents an original framework for assessing and enhancing urban resilience from the perspective of the life circle that emphasizes the daily activity spaces of residents, using Urumqi, a major city in northwest China's arid oasis region, as a case study. Based on multi-source urban geographic big data, we introduce Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve to analyze the spatial matching relationship between urban spatial pressure and urban spatial resilience, and divided the priority of planning intervention by priority index. Our findings for the case study Urumqi reveal a strong "center-periphery" structure of urban resilience and spatial pressures. Based on the findings, we proposed targeted planning interventions prioritized by a resilience index that considers the life circle to address disparities and improve urban resilience. Our study advocates for urban planning to focus on the life circle, aiming to develop a multi-center and cluster-type resilient urban spatial structure to foster a "people-oriented" resilient city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Quantitatively describes the groundwater recharge process for lakes. • Constructed a model for the groundwater table-lake area relationship in groundwater-dependent lakes in arid regions. • Suggested a groundwater depth of 1.73 m to maintain stable lake area within the Hetao Irrigation District. • Constructed model can serve as an effective reference tool for groundwater management and the protection of lake ecosystems. The groundwater table constitutes a significant factor in sustaining the ecosystems of lakes in arid regions. To elucidate the mechanism by which variations in groundwater tables affect lake areas, this paper presents a case study of a typical groundwater-fed lake in China's Hetao Irrigation District. An analytical model correlating groundwater tables with lake areas was developed to simulate and predict the impact of changes in groundwater tables on lake areas. The findings indicate that the analytical model adeptly simulates the lake area dynamics of the groundwater-fed lake cluster (Taerhu lake cluster) from 1998 to 2018, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value exceeding 0.6 and a root mean square error (RMSE) value below 0.1 square kilometers. Maintaining a groundwater depth at 1.73 m ensures the stability of the lake area; a decrease in groundwater depth to 1.93 m would result in a 79.5 % reduction in lake area. The model constructed in this study offers a crucial tool for the ecological protection of lakes and groundwater management in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the origins of groundwater and its movement from mountain to plain during different high intensity rainfall events is critical for conserving water supplies, determining water-use policies and controlling pollution. These factors are also the keys for understanding the dominant processes in hydrological models. In this study, groundwater resources and recharge processes during heavy precipitation were explored by using stable isotope tracers in the hilly area of Taihang Mountain. It was found that the δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation exhibited obvious precipitation amount effect during different precipitation intensity events. The stable isotopic values in groundwater and river water showed significantly varied during the single extreme heavy precipitation and the continuous heavy precipitation events. In the rainy season, precipitation amounts greater than 40 mm/d could effectively recharge the shallow groundwater in the study area. By comparing the spatial isotopic distribution of groundwater, soil water, and river water with precipitation, we showed distinct groundwater recharge patterns in terms of their water resources, timing, and the degree of river water and groundwater interaction during the single extreme heavy precipitation and the continuous heavy precipitation. After the single extreme heavy precipitation, the δ2H and δ18O values of groundwater, soil water, and river water showed stable over time and had the same similar variations, suggested that the groundwater recharge was mainly dominated by precipitation with preferential flow or bypass flow. While after the continuous heavy precipitation, the variation of δ2H and δ18O in all water is consistent with the previous precipitation, which shown a mixing effect of previous enrich precipitation and depleted heavy precipitation, suggested that groundwater source was dominated by a continuous recharge of previous heavier precipitation with translatory flow. The groundwater main recharge mechanism is not constant, but changes with rainfall intensity. The rainfall intensity play an important role in groundwater recharge change affecting runoff process. Overall, this paper presents a new insight to understand the effect of rainfall intensity on hydrological process, which could be used to provide vital information in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions where water resources are critical in climate change adaptation strategies. [Display omitted] • We identified the controls on groundwater recharge during different precipitation intensity events. • Precipitation greater than 40 mm/d could effectively recharge shallow groundwater. • Bypass flow after extreme precipitation produced stream water and groundwater recharge. • Groundwater recharge was by a continuous recharge with translatory flow after the continuous heavy precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid regions of northwestern China are dominated by extensive areas of mobile sand dunes. These features cause environmental problems and exert global climatic impacts; however, due to the lack of systematically-applied indicators of aeolian activity, direct evidence of past changes in aeolian activity is unreliable, especially for aeolian sand source regions. In this paper, we analyze the end-member (EM) distributions of various types of surface soil across the Tengger Desert in northwestern China, and devise a sensitive proxy for aeolian activity using a spatio-temporal substitution approach. This proxy is then used to evaluate a Quaternary aeolian succession and to understand the response of aeolian activity to regional climate change. Our results suggest that gradual increases in the coarse-grained EM components 3–5 reflect enhanced dune mobility and reduced vegetation coverage, which are a direct function of the intensity of regional aeolian activity. In the aeolian section, coarse- and medium-grained sand layers resemble modern semi-mobile and mobile dunes, whereas fine-grained sand layers are analogous to vegetated fixed/semi-fixed or semi-mobile dunes. Combining this record with independent multi-proxy evidence from the same section leads us to conclude that strong aeolian activity coincided with a dry climate, sparse vegetation cover, and strong surface winds during the Last Glacial Maximum, and that these conditions gradually attenuated at the beginning of the Last Deglacial. These inferences are in accord with independent paleoclimate records from this region, confirming that the intensity of aeolian activity in the southeastern Tengger Desert is closely associated with large-scale climate change. Our findings show that our EM proxy can be used to infer the intensity of aeolian activity and to reliably reconstruct the evolution of deserts in northwestern China. [Display omitted] • Coarse grain-size End-members (EM) 3–5 are a proxy of the strength of aeolian activity. • This proxy is applied to a palaeo-aeolian sequence to reconstruct the history of desert evolution. • Aeolian activity was closely associated with large-scale climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems in arid regions with sandy substrates are vulnerable to various environmental challenges. Understanding the vegetation evolution of such regions over a long timescale and the possible drivers of change is important for optimizing ecological restoration. In this paper, we present multi-proxy data to understand Holocene vegetation dynamics and their drivers in the Horqin Sandy Land in northern China. Phytoliths are used to reconstruct vegetation; grain size and magnetic susceptibility are used to reconstruct the climate; and sedimentary charcoal contents and the numbers of regional archaeological sites are used to reconstruct the fire activity and human activity intensity, respectively. Results indicate that the Horqin Sandy Land was covered mainly by grassland vegetation during the Holocene, and that the trajectory of vegetation evolution was as follows: sparse and species-poor Leymus chinensis grassland from 9300 to 6150 cal yr BP, relatively sparse and species-rich mesophytic herb grassland from 6150 to 2300 cal yr BP, and dense and species-rich L. chinensis grassland from 2300 to 250 cal yr BP. Climate change was the main driver of vegetation evolution, but fire and human activities also influenced the vegetation to varying degrees. Fire made the greatest contribution to the vegetation change during the 6150–2300 cal yr BP interval, and human activities contributed throughout the 8200–2300 cal yr BP interval. The evolution of plant species richness and the number of C 3 plants show a significant ∼1000-yr periodicity during 9300–4500 cal yr BP, which we speculate was caused by the effect of solar activity on East Asian monsoon intensity, which likely controlled the vegetation change on a millennial timescale. • The Holocene vegetation in Horqin Sandy Land is qualitatively reconstructed. • Climate dominated the vegetation evolution, while fire and human activity were additional influences. • The vegetation change shows a ∼ 1000-yr periodicity during 9300–4500 cal yr BP. • The vegetation change on a millennium cycle was likely driven by the solar activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is diffusely applied to areas with uniform precipitation distribution and gentle slopes. However, the SWAT has apparent defects in the process of ecohydrological simulation in mid-high latitudes and arid regions. This model can merely be used in agricultural catchments with gentle slopes and uniform rainfall, and the simulation is not suitable for high-altitude alpine catchment. To this point, this paper makes appropriate improvements to the runoff module, and specifically corrects the key sensitive parameters. The global sensitivity and performance assessment of the model's parameters were carried out before and after the improvement using the monthly data of runoff and evaporation from 1990 to 2018 in the Kaidu River basin in northwestern China. It is indicated that the Modified SWAT simulates the performance of monthly runoff and evapotranspiration better than the original SWAT, which overestimates the runoff volume throughout hydrological changes in different periods. Compared with the monthly water production under different land use/cover conditions, the highest water production was found in forest and grassland. By modifying the SWAT algorithm, the structural non-determinacy of the Modified SWAT is significantly reduced, and the adaptability of the model is improved. Thus, the Modified SWAT shows a better simulation performance in arid areas with considerable terrain variation and scarce rainfall data. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Optical images are easily affected by clouds and cloud shadows. • Fmask is introduced into the GEE platform and modified for Sentinel-2 images. • The improved SNOWL algorithm considers unstable snow cover areas. • Snow cover extraction accuracy in flat surface and shady slope is the highest. • Snow cover in mountainous is reconstructed by combing the Fmask, Sen2Cor and the improved SNOWL algorithms. Snow is an important type of surface cover and an important freshwater resource in the arid regions of northwest China, and optical satellites are an important means for monitoring variation in snow cover. However, the radiation values measured by satellite sensors are affected by cloud cover and cloud shadows; thus, the reconstruction of snow cover under clouds and cloud shadows becomes a bottleneck problem especially in mountains areas. Based on the digital elevation model (DEM), in this paper, an integrated method of snow cover reconstruction on Sentinel-2 images is created by combining the improved SNOWL (snow line) algorithm considering unstable snow cover areas, Fmask cloud detection algorithms, and the Sen2Cor clear sky snow cover detection tool with a geospatial processing platform, GEE (Google Earth Engine). Considering the Babao River Basin as the study area, 474 Sentinel-2 scenes (10 m) were selected to obtain the snow cover spatiotemporal variations of 158 days from November 2016 to March 2021. Compared with the high-resolution GF-2 satellite images, the integrated method can extract snow under clouds and cloud shadows well, and the improved SNOWL algorithm improves the overall accuracy from 66.05 % to 84.26 %. The experimental results show that approximately half of the Babao River Basin is unstable snow cover, and areas above 3977 m are covered with snow for at least half a year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The proportion of vegetation improvement area in QLMs reached 65.06% in the past 21 years, while 52% of the area will be continuously improved in the future. • The distribution of the NDVI in the QLMs maintained a high spatial agglomeration. • Annual sunshine duration is the main meteorological factor affecting vegetation change in Qilian Mountains. • The interaction between different driving factors can improve the explanatory power of vegetation changes compared with a single driving factor. Vegetation is an important indicator reflecting ecological environment stability, and monitoring vegetation change and understanding its potential driving force have important guiding significance for the adjustment and implementation of ecological restoration measures. As an ecological security barrier in northwest China, the Qilian Mountains (QLMs) play an important role in promoting the green development of social and economic development. Currently, the comprehensive driving effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on vegetation change in the QLMs are not clear. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the spatiotemporal characteristics and trend changes in vegetation in the QLMs were systematically analyzed from 2000 to 2020 in this paper. The effects of natural and anthropogenic driving factors on vegetation change were explored using a geographic detector (GeoDetector). The results showed that the vegetation has improved continuously in the past 21 years, but the overall vegetation coverage was still low. The vegetation distribution was highly clustered, with a decreasing trend from east to west. Annual sunshine duration (q statistic = 0.3347) and distance to the rivers (q statistic = 0.2649) had the greatest explanatory power for vegetation change, while slope, aspect, and landform type had the least explanatory power. The interaction between elevation and sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation, temperature and sunshine duration, elevation and precipitation had the most explanatory power for vegetation change. Finally, we determined the ranges or categories of driving factors that were most suitable for vegetation growth by using a risk detector. The results of this study can help us further understand the potential driving mechanism of vegetation coverage variation in the QLMs and provide theoretical guidance for relevant managers to formulate ecological restoration measures and land management policies in the next step. It is of great significance to maintain the stability of the fragile ecological environment and prevent land degradation in arid and semiarid areas of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation on the Loess Plateau was investigated. • Precipitation was the greatest driving factor. • There was a bivariate or nonlinear enhancement between all factors. • Key factors' adaptation range or type suitable for vegetation cover was identified. Vegetation, being a core component of ecosystems, is known to be influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. Studying vegetation cover dynamics variation and its drivers is critical to understanding the interactions between vegetation and ecosystems. The Loess Plateau (LP) is located in a semi-arid and semi-humid region with severe soil erosion and fragile ecology. This paper used the annual maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI ymax) and growing season mean NDVI (NDVI gsmean) as the vegetation cover indicator. The vegetation cover variation of LP from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed using Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall test. Then the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the driving mechanisms of spatial vegetation differentiation was explored by the Geodetector model. The results revealed that the growth trends of NDVI ymax and NDVI gsmean were 0.075/10 years and 0.038/10 years, respectively, and the areas with improved vegetation cover accounted for 92.67 % and 88.58 % of the total area. The vegetation cover of the southeastern and northern parts of the LP decreased significantly; however, the central, southwestern, and northeastern parts exhibited a remarkable improvement. Precipitation, vegetation type, soil type, temperature, and land use type were the key driving forces, ranked differently on NDVI ymax and NDVI gsmean. However, precipitation was the most critical factor both on NDVI ymax and NDVI gsmean. The interaction detection showed non-linear and mutual enhancement, with no independent factor. The findings of our study can assist in identifying the vegetation cover status of the LP, as well as the driving forces, which can provide theoretical support for the formulation of environmental conservation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Both GPP and GPP max in Chinese grasslands showed increases at different space–time scales. • Trend analysis and breakpoint tests were used for the first time to monitor GPP change simultaneously in Chinese grasslands. • GPP max × CUP is a robust indicator to explain annual-scale variation in GPP. At the ecosystem level, Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was defined as the organic compounds formed by plants that absorb atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis and sequester carbon in plant bodies. How to accurately assess the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem carbon indicators has become a critical issue to be addressed. Chinese grasslands are located in a typical arid and semi-arid climate zone and are sensitive to global changes, which will inevitably have serious impacts on the function and structure of Chinese grasslands. Based on this, our paper takes Chinese grassland ecosystems as the research area, and used multi-source GPP dataset from terrestrial ecosystem model simulations and remote sensing satellite observations to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of GPP in Chinese grasslands over the past 40 years. We combined trend analysis and breakpoint test, and then to analyze the mechanism components of GPP space–time variability. The main results are as follows: (1) The model and remote sensing estimated GPP results showed that more than 80% of Chinese grasslands show a significant increasing trend over the past 40 years, with growth rates ranging from 0.68 to 3.13 g C/m−2 year−1. (2) GPP max also shows that more than 80% of Chinese grasslands are growing rapidly, with an overall growth rate of more than 0.1 g C/m−2 year−1 in each region. The overall long-term trends and interannual variability of multi-source GPP and GPP max are generally consistent, yet vegetation dynamics in local areas are still uncertain. (3) The breakpoint test showed that 'monotonically increasing' was the largest breakpoint type of GPP in Chinese grasslands (33.09%), and the direction of change of GPP in Chinese grasslands before and after the breakpoint was also increasing. (4) GPP max × CUP explained 91% of the temporal variability of annual-scale GPP in Chinese grasslands from a mechanistic view, and we found that the peak photosynthetic growth and the length of the phenological period synergistically controlled the interannual variability of GPP in Chinese grasslands. Under the scenario of rapid global change, our study accurately assessed the long-term dynamics of GPP and its mechanism-driven of grassland ecosystems in China, which is helpful for estimating and predicting the carbon budget of grassland ecosystems in China, and has important guiding significance for policy formulation to mitigate climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their thoughtful paper entitled "An equable subtropical climate throughout China in the Miocene based on palaeofloral evidence", Qing Wang, Yan Li, David K. Ferguson, Wen-Bo Mo, and Nan Yang (2021) imply that China exhibited negligible latitudinal mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradients and lacked arid regions during the Miocene. They also speculate that there was no abrupt change in elevation of the Tibetan Plateau, nor that the plateau attained its present altitude or orography during that period. These conclusions were derived mainly by using a co-existence approach (CA) and 'incomplete data'. Here, we use CA with training data and also integrate a coexistence likelihood estimation, a pollen-MAP boundary, a desert-MAP boundary, and other newly published MAP data to show that Northwest China consistently exhibited drier conditions than South China and East China during the entire Miocene, with our new values being 300–500 mm lower than those of Wang et al. (2021). This implies that there were large spatial gradients of MAP in China during the Miocene, which may be directly linked with the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, the global cooling, as well as other factors. We recommend the comprehensive consideration of multiple methods and proxies for reconstructing past climate conditions as opposed to a single proxy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Desertification and salinization are both threats to the ecosystem services in inland river oases of arid regions. Previous studies focus on either desertification or salinization, and there is a lack of joint studies on the two issues. The essential cause of desertification in a transition zone is usually concentrated irrigation water use, which leads to shrink of the subsurface flow field of groundwater, decline of the groundwater level, and loss of groundwater supply to the vegetation. The salinization problem in an oasis area is mainly caused by the local excess groundwater in the oasis, referring to secondary salinization, which leads to salt migration with the groundwater level rise to form salt crystallization at the land surface. Thus, the processes of desertification and secondary salinization are connected, and the solutions to the two problems can be complementary, i.e., by transporting the excess groundwater in the local secondary salinization area to the transition zone area where water is scarce. This paper, taking Luocheng Irrigation District in the Heihe River Basin of northwestern China as an example, estimates 1.76–4.70 million m3 of excess groundwater that can be extracted in the salinized area. Using this amount of water through engineering regulation, it is estimated that the transition zone nearby the irrigation district, which is under desertification threat, can be restored with an area of 23–212 km2. An engineering system is designed for coordinated groundwater regulation and the implementation with an experimental farm in the irrigation district is demonstrated. • Providing a new method to mitigate salinization and desertification in arid areas through groundwater regulation. • Estimating the amount of drainage from salinized oasis area in an irrigation district and the transition zone area to be recovered from desert. • Designing an engineering system for coordinated groundwater regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • SIF data that characterizes the growth of sandy vegetation is more sensitive. • SIF can well capture the changes in surface moisture and groundwater. • Vegetation growth has a strong correspondence with SM and a relatively weak correlation with TWS. • Vegetation growth in the late period of the mutation year is generally better than that in the early period. • Similarities and differences of vegetation-moisture relationship in four sandy lands. Hulunbuir, Otindag, Horqin and Mu Us are the four greater sandy lands in China. They are typical ecologically fragile areas with limited ability to resist interference and are susceptible to changes in the external environment. With climate change in recent decades, these areas have experienced severe land desertification and decreased groundwater levels. The ecological environment is at risk of further deterioration, and continuous vegetation restoration and management should be adapted to the local climate and maintain the water balance with natural precipitation. This paper combines multi-source satellite observations to explore the relationship between vegetation growth and water supply. The results show four main points. (1) Although the vegetation growth in Otindag and Horqin had degraded before 2010, it improved after 2010. The vegetation growth and soil moisture (SM) of the four sandy lands both generally increased from 2003 to 2016. The SM of the Horqin increased significantly (84% anomaly > 1.4 × 10−2 cm3/cm3). Other than the Hulunbuir, the other sandy lands show a downward trend in terrestrial water storage (TWS), especially the Mu Us declined the most (97% anomaly < −40 mm). (2) Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has specific advantages in characterizing the sandy vegetation productivity and water composition changes compared to vegetation index (EVI) or gross primary productivity (GPP). (3) The regional pattern of the vegetation-moisture relationship is mainly affected by the precipitation-driven SM and depends on the types of underlying vegetation functions. (4) Both SM and TWS have approximately one-month persistence in the four sandy lands, especially the Mu Us has the longest persistence (0.94 months and 1.1 months). The persistence in the early period is generally longer than that in the late period, implying that the resilience of water components after the mutation year is stronger than before it. This study provides a scientific basis for the management and restoration of sandy lands. It is recommended that different vegetation restoration and protection strategies should be developed for specific sandy land moisture conditions in arid/semi-arid regions of northern China, which includes the improvement of water use efficiency to maintain soil moisture and the reduction of excessive groundwater uses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The determination of spatiotemporal variation in ecosystem service value and its drivers is fundamental to ecosystem service management and decision-making. This paper selects a typical oasis irrigation district in the arid regions of northwest China as the research object. Using the benefit transfer method to evaluate the ecosystem service value variation caused by land use and land cover change and characteristics of its spatial distribution based on multi-temporal land use and land cover data sets (1977, 1987, 1997, 2007, 2017). Meanwhile, the contributions of factors driving ecosystem service value and their interactions were explored using geographical detector. The results showed the following: 1) The land use and land cover structure was stable from 1977 to 2017, and the overall ecosystem service value increased slightly. The services provided by the oasis ecosystem dominated the fluctuations in ecosystem service value throughout the study region. 2) Ecosystem service value exhibited a strong positive spatial autocorrelation. The high values were concentrated in the oasis area in the north of the study area, while the low values mainly appeared in the desert ecosystem. 3) The land use degree and human activity intensity index of human factors are the main factors leading to the differentiation of ecosystem service value. Synergized interactions among human activities, changes in landscape patterns, and natural factors produced the spatial differentiation in ecosystem service value of the study region. The results suggest that in future decision-making for ecosystem management, the direction of human activities within the ecological environment should be controlled. Improve the diversity of patches, reduce the degree of landscape fragmentation, improve the ecosystem service function of LULC, optimize the allocation of ecological landscape resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Grassland degradation is the main reason for the decline in carbon storage. • The carbon storage of farmland has increased significantly. • The risk of carbon storage reduction in the future is still high. The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to global climate change. Therefore, assessing the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage is instructive to reduce global carbon emissions. Taking an arid region in northwest China as an example, this paper analyzed the land-use changes in arid region from 1980 to 2015. It used the CA-Markov model to predict the land-use pattern from 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage and sequestration module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Invest) mode to assess and predict ecosystem carbon storage over the past 35 years and in the next 30 years and discusses the impact of land-use changes on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that: (1) The high-value areas of carbon storage in arid region were primarily concentrated in grassland, forests and farmland, and the low-value areas of carbon storage were mainly in desert areas. (2) The carbon storage in arid region showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2015, the carbon reserves of terrestrial ecosystems in arid region decreased by 90.95 Tg, and the net loss of carbon reserves from 2020 to 2050 was 14.72 Tg. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in arid region. (3) The carbon storage of farmland had increased significantly, but the expansion of farmland dominated by high carbon density grassland, wetland and forest, had reduced the overall carbon storage of the arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]