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Welfare Costs of Markups Despite the lively debate on market power containing many critics, most academics seem to agree that market power is present in the U.S. economy and has been moderately rising. Depending on the level of the aggregate markup (reminiscent of the sales-weighted average markup in the market power study), welfare losses induced by markups can be sizable. We survey the recent, active debate on market power in the U.S. economy. [Extracted from the article]

Kalecki's 'Political Aspects of Full Employment' is a classic work of political economy, showing how full employment may be obtained by fiscal policy. However, full employment challenges key institution of capitalism, in the labour market evoking resistance from business and finance and the possibility of a political business cycle. The paper compares Kalecki's vision of full employment with that of Keynes and the contribution of mass unemployment to fascism. The paper argues that Kalecki saw full employment as a transition to socialism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the dynamics of financial deepening and the volatility of business cycle in the United Arab of Emirates (UAE). We use cointegration tests of regime‐shift with one and two endogenous structural breaks, respectively, using Gregory and Hansen, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, 555–560 and Hatemi‐J, Empirical Economics, 2008, 35, 497–505 approaches. The asymmetry in the underlying relationship of the concerned variables are examined following NARDL model over the period 1974–2016. The findings suggest the presence of regime shifts in the cointegrating relationship and asymmetry between growth volatility and financial deepening. Furthermore, the paper provides evidence of a significant difference in the response of business cycle to negative or positive changes in the financial deepening, which are more pronounced in the short run. Therefore, the obtained asymmetry suggests that business cycle responses are quick and adverse to changes in the financial system in the UAE. The empirical findings of this paper have potential policy implications in this emerging country that is aiming to establish an international reputation in its financial market and become a regional financial hub. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different 'theories' of business fluctuations. With different theoretical frameworks in a 30-year span, the driver of fluctuations, namely cyclical changes in expectations about future returns, remained substantially the same. The banking system also played a pivotal role throughout the different versions, by financing and influencing the behaviour of return expectations. There are four major changes in the evolution of Keynes's business cycle theories: (i) the saving–investment framework to understand changes in economic fluctuations; (ii) the capabilities of the banking system to moderate the business cycle; (iii) the effectiveness of monetary policy to fine tune the business cycle through the control of the short-term interest rate or credit conditions; and (iv) the role of a comprehensive fiscal policy and investment policy to attenuate fluctuations. Finally, we draw some conclusions about the present relevance of the policy mix Keynes promoted for ensuring macroeconomic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies empirically the macroeconomic and financial effects of Climate Policy Risk (CPR) in Switzerland. To do so, I develop a new CPR index using text analysis techniques on a large dataset of Swiss media articles. The identification of CPR shocks is achieved by using narrative restrictions around events which are likely to have coincided with an increase in the probability of adopting tighter climate policies. I find that CPR shocks are associated with a significant decline in real GDP and a decline in firm-level CO2 emissions. Using firm-level equity price data and rolling linear panel regressions, I document that CPR is increasingly reflected in asset prices. I further find that CO2-intensive firms perform significantly worse than their greener counterparts following events which increased transition risk. The results are in line with recent theoretical contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activity is low, employment decreases, and unemployment rises. This relation is well-researched in the framework of Okun's law. However, it is far less known how this relationship holds if international economic relations are introduced. Thus, the motivation for the research was to examine the role of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growthunemployment nexus. Purpose of the article: To assess how trade and FDI affect growth and gender-, age-, and educational attainment level-specific unemployment relationship and on what scale this effect varies over different business cycle phases. Methods: Scientific literature review, comparative analysis, and panel regression. Findings & value added: Given the lack of research examining what effect FDI and trade have on the growth-unemployment nexus, this paper estimates modified Okun's equation on the European Union (EU) countries (EU-28, by the composition of the EU until 31/01/2020) for the period from 2000 to 2019 while incorporating international aspects that can have an impact on this nexus. Also, this study develops a specification that can be useful to monitor the potentially different effects of FDI and trade on the growth-unemployment nexus during different business cycle phases. The estimations of the panel regression for unemployment disaggregated by age, gender and education level has showed that import, export, inward FDI, and outward FDI have a negative effect on the growth-unemployment nexus. It means that with an increase in the intensity of international economic relations, the influence of gross domestic product (GDP) growth on unemployment becomes less significant. Thus, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy to reduce unemployment becomes less effective in more open economies, which in the case of the EU are the smallest member states with relatively small domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an economic life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fueled gas turbine power plant is developed, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis with electricity generated from renewable resources (green hydrogen). By this way, the continuous green electricity without fluctuation can be generated. With a great potential in solar irradiation, Iran can be a major country for producing green hydrogen. For this purpose, first, we simulate a 100 MW solar PV plant in Fars province and calculate annual electricity generation. Considering capital cost (Capex) and operations and maintenance costs (Opex) of plants including PV, electrolyzer, hydrogen storage and distribution facilities, and gas turbine, we estimate levelized cost of electricity from green H2-fueled gas turbine power plant. Because hydrogen technology has not matured yet, the analysis for both 2021 and 2040 will be conducted. Due to lower marginal production costs, the increase in renewable energy sources decreases electricity wholesale prices. In this paper, we also estimate long-term merit order effect (MOE) of electricity generated by green hydrogen on electricity wholesale price. The results show that in renewable/hydrogen-based forecast for electricity mix of 2040, electricity wholesale price is estimated around 6.38 c$/kWh, nearly 38% less than present wholesale price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly leads to budget and schedule contingencies. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In the literature, a considerable number of papers have tried to determine construction PM challenges, mainly using statistical methods. These methods do not consider the cause-and-effect relationship among variables. To enhance the existing methods, this paper applies social network analysis (SNA) principles in order to rank a group of variables based on cause-and-effect relationships. To demonstrate the proposed idea, a data set is constructed that includes different types of challenges acquired from the literature comprehended with the forward-chaining approach. In total, 49 critical challenges were identified and subsequently categorized into 12 groups. Two questionnaires were designed to assist in ranking the challenges. 108 construction experts and 20 panelists participated in this study, and the acquired data were used to evaluate the proposed SNA-based method. By applying the proposed method to the obtained data, a complex weighted and directed network is constructed and examined by three metrics: weighted in-degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. The results revealed that poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, and poor decision making are the main challenges that occur in the construction environment. Moreover, it was figured out that considering the cause-and-effect relationship among variables resulted in a highly different ranking of challenges, much closer to the real situation. This model could be used in quantitative-analytical research conducted in the construction project knowledge area in order to obtain more interpretable answers. Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly lead to time and cost overruns. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In this research, comprehensive scientific efforts were made in order to rank the main PMs' challenges in the construction sector, especially in developing countries. For this purpose, cause-and-effect relationships among variables were considered. By using different questionnaires as well as forming different focus groups and interviewing different experts, we found that the main top 10 challenges in the construction sector are: poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, poor decision making, time pressure, rework, stressful atmosphere, design alteration (even after execution), workforce turnover, fluctuation rate and economic instability, and inappropriate and unrealistic scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the bibliometrics of a Keynesian and neoclassical discussion about the multiplier–accelerator effect. Having its oldest roots in the 1930s, there was a special emphasis in the 1960s and 1970s on discussions regarding the dependence of current investment on economic growth (the accelerator effect). Through a bibliometric analysis, we also consider the Hicks–Samuelson contribution, also known as the multiplier–accelerator model. We identified, among other things, the most relevant authors on the topics, the economic areas that have been contributed to the most through keyword analysis, and the most notable contributions through citation analysis. We concluded that several areas in economics have taken advantage of the discussion around the multiplier–accelerator effect, especially the discussion on the business cycle, structural dynamics, and public finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates how exchange governance and the local market system influence a firm's adaptability to an economic crisis. This paper unveils a nuanced performance disparity by leveraging a rich dataset of manufacturing firms in Spain. While vertically integrated firms exhibit superior performance during periods of stability, they confront more significant setbacks in the aftermath of economic crises. This study demonstrates that the extent of this performance divergence is contingent upon the thickness of the local market system, supporting the hypothesis that vertically integrated firms derive reduced adaptive benefits from agglomeration economies. These findings shed light on the dynamic interrelationship between a firm's vertical scope and geographical context. They underscore the significance of a holistic assessment when determining the optimal approach to exchange governance. This assessment must evaluate the advantages and drawbacks of autonomous versus coordinated adaptation across economic cycles and geographies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Spanish households' indebtedness and financial vulnerability over the course of this century using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Our results show a growing debt participation of Spanish households and an increase in the stock of outstanding debt of indebted households, a trend that reversed with the end of the Great Recession. Moreover, the percentage of financially vulnerable households according to three indicators grew dramatically until the end of the downward phase of the last economic cycle and showed considerable signs of improvement during the second half of 2010s. These results, nonetheless, call attention to the number of Spanish households being unable to service their debts in the face of an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf's law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and business cycles. Our aim is to test the granular hypothesis that large cities have a significant impact on the business cycle beyond their relative size. We analyze data from American and Brazilian cities between 2003 and 2019 assessing the granular residuals and their explanatory power. Our findings reveal that in the United States, the granular city size is three metropolitan areas or five counties when redefined. In Brazil, it equates to three municipalities. These results emphasize the substantial role large cities play in national economic fluctuations, suggesting that policy interventions that target infrastructure, education, and innovation in major urban centers could have widespread economic benefits. This paper's contribution to the literature is to highlight a spatial component of granularity not considered so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global trend of investing in real property portfolios offers diversification, profitability, and a hedge against inflation. However, international investors encounter significant challenges in developing economies like Nigeria. Despite Nigeria's attractiveness due to its large population, rapid urbanization, and growing middle class, factors such as political instability, corruption, economic volatility, limited access to finance, and complex legal and regulatory frameworks inhibit foreign investment. Political instability and insecurity create an unpredictable environment, while corruption and bureaucracy further complicate business operations. Economic dependence on oil and infrastructure deficiencies also poses substantial risks. Addressing these multifaceted challenges is crucial for maximizing the investment potential in Nigeria's real estate market. Literature reveals both the opportunities and barriers for international investors, emphasizing the need for improved regulatory frameworks and infrastructure to attract and sustain foreign investment in Nigeria's real property sector. The study investigates the perceptions of respondents regarding various factors influencing foreign real estate investment in Nigeria, focusing on political instability, legal framework, economic fluctuations, infrastructure inadequacy, and potential improvements. Analysis of survey data, including histograms, ogive curves, and statistical metrics such as mean weight and standard deviation, reveals key insights. A significant proportion of respondents hold negative views on political instability and policy changes with the highest frequencies in Strongly Disagree and Disagree categories. The mean weight of 2.63 and a standard deviation of 1.49 indicate a general tendency towards disagreement with moderate variation. Respondents predominantly disagree that Nigeria's legal framework for property is clear and well-enforced, with a mean weight of 1.93 and a standard deviation of 1.34, reflecting a consensus on perceived regulatory inconsistencies and risks. There is prevalent disagreement that economic conditions and oil dependency positively impact the real estate market. The mean weight is 2.43, with a standard deviation of 1.52, indicating concerns about economic instability affecting investor confidence. The majority strongly agree that inadequate infrastructure is a major barrier to foreign real estate investment, with a mean weight of 4.53 and a standard deviation of 1.75, showing strong consensus on the need for infrastructure improvements. Respondents agree that improving political stability and legal regulations would boost investment, indicated by a mean weight of 3.6 and a standard deviation of 1.41, reflecting moderate agreement. There is strong agreement that diversifying the economy and improving infrastructure would enhance market stability and attractiveness, with a mean weight of 4.08 and a standard deviation of 1.60. The findings highlight significant concerns regarding political, legal, and economic factors, while emphasizing the importance of infrastructure improvements and economic diversification for attracting and sustaining foreign real estate investment in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronization on income convergence for a sample of 89 developed and developing countries in the period 1970–2015. We use a dynamic factor model and panel data techniques to undertake the objectives of the paper. We show that synchronized countries (those correlated with the factor) exhibit a higher response on GDP per capita growth with variations on the global business cycle. This implies that synchronization improves growth for that group in global expansionary phases, but also implies risks during global recessions. On the contrary, the effect on growth of an economic globalization index is less relevant for synchronized countries than for asynchronized countries. The latter result implies that asynchronized countries can benefit more increasing their levels of economic globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and its impact on the business cycle using quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2016Q3. The paper explains the short-run dynamic relationship amongst key macroeconomic variables using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model in an open economy setting. The paper confirms that changes in global economic conditions are a material cause of fluctuations in the business cycle in PNG. In contrast, domestic monetary policy shocks play a smaller role in generating business cycle variations in PNG. The paper finds that oil price shocks are more important than commodity price shocks or foreign monetary policy shocks in driving domestic fluctuations. Money supply matters in the transmission of monetary policy, while interest rates contribute modestly to explaining changes in output and inflation in PNG. Monetary policy essentially acts as a stabilizer in limiting the contagion effects of external shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Figure 1a. Economic Activity and Credit Market Sentimentin the U.S. Economic Activity Factor Figure 1b: Economic Activity and Credit Market Sentimentin the U.S. Credit Market Sentiment Factor Figure 1c: Economic Activity and Credit Market Sentimentin the U.S. Probability of an Adverse Economic State As shown in Figure 1a, the economic activity factorcaptures well the declines in economic activity duringrecessions, as well as the quick rebound from the recentCOVID crisis. Fluctuations inthe credit market sentiment factor are associated withstrong asymmetric and nonlinear effects on economicactivity, depending not only on the magnitude and sign ofa credit market sentiment shock but also on the currenteconomic conditions. Economic Brief In a forthcoming paper, we develop a newsignal-extraction statistical model to estimate a factorsummarizing conditions in U.S. credit markets. [Extracted from the article]

Illicit financial flows have existed since time immemorial; however, for the African continent, this crime became more salient from the 1950s when African states began gaining independence. This period was coupled with the urgent need for most, if not all, African states to drive for inclusive development that would enable native Africans to address all the inequalities born from the imperial and colonial periods. It is the drive for this inclusive development that unwittingly allowed an opportunity for government authorities and their cronies to embezzle public funds for self-enrichment. This phenomenon of illicit financial flows embedded itself in Africa to weaken state and continental institutions. It further undermined the noble efforts to develop the African continent. Despite efforts employed to root out this nefarious crime, monies that leave the continent grow yearly, which is an indication that mechanisms in place tend to be redundant. This is coupled with the imprecise data and figures that people are continually fed about the illicit financial flows, which makes it increasingly difficult for authorities to fight this crime. This paper argues that the failure of the mechanisms in place and the imprecise data produced have created this unholy link between development and the ever-increasing illicit financial flows in Africa. However, with the available data that is always already accessible, the study on which this paper is based has been able to establish a direct link between underdevelopment and illicit financial flows. The persistent nature and magnitude of monies that flow out of the continent illicitly hamper Africa from meeting the set development goals, as this undermines the rule of law, allowing the perpetrators to act with impunity while the lives of the ordinary people are compromised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In financial asset allocation, enterprises adjust their investment in R&D innovation according to their motives and the external environment. Based on a review of the literature related to enterprise financialization and R&D innovation, this paper proposes research hypotheses through theoretical analysis first; then, taking China's A-share non-financial listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as research objects, this paper explores the relationship between enterprise financialization and R&D innovation with a quantile panel data model; further, the heterogeneous relationship between the two under different business cycle phases is empirically analyzed. The following conclusions are drawn. First, there is a dynamic relationship between enterprise financialization and R&D innovation, varying with different financing constraints. Second, the dynamic relationship between enterprise financialization and R&D innovation stems from the motivation difference in enterprise asset allocation. Third, there are significant differences in the dynamic relationship at different business cycle phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The data-generating process underlying productivity includes both trend and business cycle shocks, generating counterfactuals for prices under full information. In practice, agents' inability to immediately distinguish between the two shocks creates "rational confusion": each shock inherits properties of its counterpart. This confusion magnifies the perceived share of permanent shocks and implies that, contrary to canonical frameworks, transitory shocks are the main driver of long-run risk through trendy business cycles. With learning, the equity premium turns positive, while investment and valuation ratios become procyclical, as in the data. Consequently, rational confusion is key for reconciling disciplined macro-dynamics with equilibrium Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses upon alignment behaviour in the post-Soviet space and seeks to explain why balancing Russia by certain post-Soviet states, despite their numerous efforts to form alliances, has failed. Whereas this failure lies within the explanatory realm of the classical alignment theories, it is more puzzling why some of these post-Soviet states understood the limitations of balancing well and acted accordingly, while others failed to do so at detrimental costs. Trying to explain the failure of balancing Russia, the paper introduces a new theoretical concept that complements the existing alignment theories, and subsequently moves to explain the empirical puzzle of variations in post-Soviet states' assessment of alignment options. In doing so, the paper focuses upon three case studies, namely Georgia and Ukraine on the one hand, that increased their efforts to balance Russia in the last decade and ended up detrimentally, and Azerbaijan on the other hand that refrained from doing so. Unit level variables such as the elites' mis-perceptions/miscalculations of their alignment options as well as distribution of material capabilities, domestic politics and different strategic cultures are employed to explain the variation. The theoretical concept offered in the paper allows for an accurate understanding of alignment behavior in the post-Soviet space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the importance of financial intermediation in economic activity. We also explore the effects of monetary factors and financial frictions on the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth, the drivers of business cycles, and how shocks spread through the intermediation process. Financial intermediaries improve fund allocation, minimize monitoring costs, minimize liquidity risk, simplify risk management, and facilitate portfolio diversification and resource allocation to more productive activities. In addition, financial intermediaries collect and analyze information about investment projects, allocating resources and managing information more efficiently than individual investors. We conclude that financial intermediation is significant for economic growth. In addition, we show that financial market frictions can amplify exogenous shocks, affecting investment, economic growth rates, and macroeconomic stability. Reducing financial frictions through intermediation is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates are the main components of macroeconomic risks (financial risks) in projects evaluation. However, the conduct of monetary policy as well as its impact on the economic environment is seldom considered as an important component of macroeconomic risks. In this paper, we offer a simple framework to analyze the conduct of monetary policy. We examine the stabilizing properties of monetary policy, its impact, and the parallels in the monetary policy approaches taken in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland until the pandemic. We provide a simple theoretical background to motivate the main elements of the debate and the choice of policy strategy. We then rationalize the adoption of a form of flexible inflation targeting (FIT). It is characterized by an explicit concern over exchange rates. The empirical evidence, consisting of calibrated and extended Taylor rules, together with local projections estimates, suggests that monetary policy has been practiced with considerable flexibility by all three central banks and has contributed to business cycle stabilization in the region. Most notably, the exchange rate plays an important role in the conduct of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to find out what is the role of competitive environment in shaping the sensitivity of growth in banking to the business cycle. To answer this question, we apply a large set of individual bank level data including over 8000 banks operating in more than 100 countries. This study uses the growth of assets, loans, deposits and leverage as proxies of bank growth and Lerner index as a proxy for the competitive environment. The analysis shows that decreased competition is associated with increased procyclicality of bank growth. However, in a perfectly competitive environment the growth turns out to be countercyclical. This effect differs between high- and low-income countries. A perfectly competitive environment is associated with countercyclical growth in high-income countries. The opposite result is found for low-income countries. Our results for Central Eastern European countries show that increased competition is associated with enhanced procyclicality of growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Co-movement in different regional housing markets has implications for portfolio management, as well as the effectiveness of monetary and other policies. Such co-movement has thus been the subject of several previous studies. Research on regional house price cohesion has tended to focus either on long-run convergence to a common level or on business cycle synchronization. While the extent of both types of relationships is important, research on national housing, credit and equities has established the salience of co-movement at the intermediate frequency, or of medium cycles. Indeed, at the national level, medium cycles in housing and credit together have been shown to characterize the financial cycle. Research on the UK has found that regional house price co-movement is different at business versus medium cycle frequencies. In this paper, we examine co-movement of house prices across the regions of the USA. We compare co-movement at the business and medium cycle frequencies. We find that medium cycles are more volatile than short-term fluctuations, making medium-term movements more important for housing. Moreover, house price synchronization across regions is for the most part greater at the medium than the short-term frequency. There did appear to be an increase in co-movement around the time of the early 1990s recession, although this was not sustained for all regions or all frequencies. Lastly, while short-term synchronization has been declining among the regions of the US housing market, medium co-movement appears to be rising over the last several decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper constructs monthly GDP nowcasts for Saudi Arabia by estimating a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) on a panel of 272 variables over the period from January 2010 to June 2018. The GDP nowcasts produced in this paper can accurately mimic GDP growth rates for Saudi Arabia, including for the non-oil sector. Our GDFM has outperformed other traditional models in tracking the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. In our view, the non-oil private sector GDP nowcasts provided in this paper can substitute the traditional set of indicators used to monitor monthly private sector activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the impact of female labor supply on aggregate labor market dynamics. It discusses the rise in female labor market participation, which has been influenced by factors such as reduced wage gaps, increased accessibility to childcare, and the growing importance of the service sector. The article also examines the lower volatility of female labor supply during recessions and the higher elasticity of female labor supply in response to wage changes. It suggests that the insurance role of female labor supply may contribute to the lower aggregate responsiveness of female labor supply. Additionally, the article discusses the slowdown in female employment recoveries since the 1990s and its implications for jobless recoveries. Overall, understanding female labor supply dynamics is crucial for interpreting broader labor market phenomena. [Extracted from the article]

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1-2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Using a political economy framework, this paper examines the financing trend, by investigating three systematic spikes occurring between 2004 and 2016. The study aims to provide a useful review of the interaction of politics, financial decisions and educational outcomes. Additionally it provides a useful guide, especially to academics, to identify political and economic conceptualizations that will predict expenditure decision-making of political actors and to be able to provide policy advice on the future effect of such decisions on availability and accessibility of public goods. Design/methodology/approach: The paper adopts a secondary data analysis approach, drawing upon secondary data sources such as from the Ministry of Education, budget statements from the Ministry of Finance, as well as relevant policy documents. Additional information for the study was also extracted from the manifestos of the two leading political parties in Ghana – the New Patriotic Party and the National Democratic Congress and their viewpoints on financing of education in Ghana. Findings: Using two epochal years when financing of education peaked (2008 and 2012), which coincided with election years, the trend lends itself to being interpreted as opportunistic spending. It appears to give credence to a conclusion that the increases in spending are more politically directed and nonneutral. Originality/value: This paper fulfills an identified need to study the trend of basic education financing in Ghana, which will help policy actors make better-informed decisions with the introduction of the novel "adaptive opportunism" framework analysis tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Price dynamics in stock market is modelled by a statistical physics systems: Ising model. A comparative analysis of the historical dynamics of stock returns between the US, UK, and French markets is given. Since the Ising model requires binary inputs, the effect of binarization is studied. Then, using the TAP approximation method, external fields and coupling strengths are calculated. The fluctuation cycles of coupling strengths have a remarkable corresponding relationship with the important period of the financial market. The highlight of this paper is to verify the phase transition can also occur in the stock market and it reveals the transformation of the market state. The numerical solution in this paper is consistent with the exact solution obtained by Lars Onsager. Our findings can help to discover the economic cycles and provide more possibilities for studying financial markets using physical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the port industry is very important in the Korean economy, there are few literature studies that shed light on the macroeconomic implications of the business cycles in this industry. This paper examines the roles played by foreign economic factors in the business cycle in the Korean port industry. Specifically, it aims to estimate the impulse response of the seaborne freight volume in the port industry due to the shocks of the foreign economy and analyze the contributions of each shock considered on the variation in the freight volume. The structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) model was employed to extract the unobserved foreign economic factors. This paper estimates the four foreign economic factors and the parameters of the model using the one-step Bayesian Gibbs sampling method. The findings of this study show that foreign economic activity statistically affects the freight volume of the Korean ports. Specifically, the shocks to the foreign real economic activity increased freight transportation for nearly one year. Following the world inflation shocks, the freight transportation was enhanced. However, this impact disappeared after a year. Similarly, the rise in global liquidity was shown to encourage transportation activity; nevertheless, this activity declined after five quarters. Moreover, the increase in the world interest rates exerted a negative effect on the volume of transportation. Furthermore, the variance decomposition analysis shows that 49.2% of the variation in the transportation volume could be attributed to foreign economic activity. This analysis can contribute to drawing useful implications in establishing the port industry policy in response to the change in the economic environment such as the foreign economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of recent recessions on the origins of productivity growth. We show how business cycles affect productivity growth, with particular attention for the impact of job reallocation and labor hoarding. We find evidence that recessions induce productivity enhancing job reallocation in manufacturing but not in services industries and show that labor hoarding mitigates this cleansing effect of recessions. Furthermore, we show how entry and exit of firms and industry dynamics shape the evolution of aggregate productivity. Plain English Summary: During recessions, governments support firms via temporary unemployment programs to save jobs. A side effect is that job reallocation and exit of low-productive firms can be distorted, while such cleansing effects typically spur productivity growth. This paper investigates how recessions affect productivity growth, with particular attention for the impact of job reallocation and labor hoarding. We find evidence that recessions induce productivity enhancing job reallocation in manufacturing but not in services industries and show that labor hoarding mitigates this cleansing effect of recessions. Furthermore, we show how entry and exit of firms and industry dynamics shape the evolution of aggregate productivity. As many developed economies struggle with a slowdown in productivity growth, it is important that policy makers understand the impact of recessions on the micro origins of productivity growth and are aware of how temporary policies during recessions could affect long-term productivity growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As soon as 1932, Jan Tinbergen proposed an explanation of the Great Depression based on a specific treatment of unstable processes and multiple equilibria. After his involvement in the early meetings of the Econometric Society, he worked on different dynamic models accounting for this instability. In 1934, he built a macrodynamic model generating new types of economic movements that did not return to a stationary state. This led him in 1936 to consider the possibility of having two equilibria, with damped or self-sustained cycles around the high equilibrium and a collapse around the low equilibrium. Tinbergen saw these models, with reference to Irving Fisher's 1933 paper, as a way to interpret the potential of a crisis to trigger the collapse of the economy. In the end, it turns out that Tinbergen managed to extend the perspective for the study of the business cycle mechanism to non cyclical behaviours which, strikingly, remains almost totally ignored in most histories of macroeconomics and econometrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002–2010. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the discontinuity design. Findings: The authors find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms' market power during the business cycle. Originality/value: The authors attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on US employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Rising crude oil prices are likely to have an asymmetric and nonlinear negative impact on GDP growth. The purpose of this paper is to ask the following questions: Does the effect of a crude price shock depend on the position of crude price cycle, i.e. is the effect of price shock larger/smaller in periods of already elevated crude price? And, does the effect of crude price shock depend on the position of the economy in the business cycle, i.e. does the crude price shock affect growth differentially in periods of low/high growth? Design/methodology/approach: The authors use a local linear projection (LLP) model to examine the asymmetric impact of crude price on GDP growth in an environment of high crude price. Next, a quantile regression model is used to account for differential impact on growth around high and low growth periods. Findings: Results from the LLP model show that when oil price is above $70, each additional percentage point of increase in oil price results in a 20 basis point (bps) drop in quarterly GDP growth rate on average. The impact is felt between the third and sixth quarters. When oil prices rise above $80, the impact is similar, with a sharper drop in growth (30 bps). The exercise with quantile regression shows that the impact of an increase in crude prices on growth is almost double at lowest quantiles of growth compared with the median. Originality/value: There is a growing literature that evaluates the impact of oil price in developing economies. However, nonlinearities in crude price-GDP growth dynamics have not received enough attention, especially during phases of elevated crude price or a growth downcycle. The authors believe that accounting for such effects is especially relevant in the present economic scenario of high oil prices because of geopolitical crises and a period of vulnerable growth because of supply chain issues arising out of the pandemic. Using recent data from oil-importing emerging market economies such as India, this paper fills a crucial gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to report students' perceptions on whether the use of accounting software enhances their understanding of the accounting cycle, and improves their information technology skills. Kolb's experiential learning cycle is used to argue that offering a concrete learning experience increases effective learning. The study uses survey research to determine students' perspectives of the usefulness of using accounting software in enhancing their understanding of the accounting cycle in a real business environment. The results show that students perceived the accounting example they used in the accounting software training to have some benefits in helping their understanding of the accounting cycle, and that it had improved their information technology skills. This paper adds to extant literature, where the accounting literature on information technology use in teaching accounting is relatively scarce. The findings are useful to teaching faculty, who may be considering adding a more practical element to their teaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China's carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the delayed-advanced Kaldorian business cycle model and consider how time-delay and time-advance affect economic fluctuations. Given the asymptotic stability of the original Kaldor model, we first show that an approximated Kaldor model by a Taylor series expansion can accurately describe the dynamics of the delayed Kaldor model. We also confirm that the delay has a destabilizing effect. When time-delay is replaced with time-advance, we have an advanced Kaldor model. Taking the advanced capital stock formulation, we derive the stability conditions and find that the time-advance has a stabilizing effect. Lastly, we examine these opposite-signed effects in a modified delayed-advanced model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper for the first time calculates the historical regional GDP (rGDP) for an Eastern European country by using the methodology of Frank Geary and Tom Stark [2002. Examining Ireland's post-famine economic growth performance. The Economic Journal, 112(482):919–935]. The estimates cover the period 1925–1935 and are made for the historical Latvian regions Kurzeme, Vidzeme, Zemgale, Latgale, and Riga as well as within the contemporary NUTS3 units. The results are compared with the GDP disparity of the NUTS3 regions of the restored independent Latvia (2001–2016). The main findings are that the sigma divergence remained stable. Direct comparisons of regional growth rates indicate that economically more advanced regions were more sensitive to business cycles than less advanced regions. Hence, sigma divergence seems to prevail in times of high growth and convergence in times of low growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political event-related literature has been growing over the past decades, generating a continuous stream of research and journal publications. This article aims to systematically review the impact of the political events on stock market literature to outline its current state, trends, gaps, and discrepancies. To this end, 111 political events-related articles published in 68 finance, economic and political journals were extracted. The retrieved pieces of literature were thoroughly examined using a comprehensive classification framework that emphasized broadly conceptual, theoretical, and methodological aspects. Finally, building on this literature, the paper proposes an extensive research agenda to help move the political event literature forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest recipient of remittances. Design/methodology/approach: Using a comprehensive time series data set spanning 1996 to 2022, the authors use an innovative non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model approach to examine the influence of economic growth, corruption control and employer availability in the three source countries on remittance inflows to India. Findings: The results indicate that in the UAE, changes in economic growth and corruption control directly affect remittance outflows. However, the presence of employers in the UAE has minimal impact on remittance outflows to India. Regarding the UK, fluctuations in economic growth primarily drive remittance outflows to India. The effect of corruption control and employment opportunities on remittance outflows is marginal. In the USA, economic growth does not notably impact remittance outflows, whereas corruption control and employment opportunities significantly influence the outflows to India. Originality/value: These findings have important implications for policymakers. Analysing macroeconomic factors from key remittance-sending nations offers valuable insights for Indian policymakers and their international counterparts to enhance remittance inflows. The study focuses on three countries that collectively contribute to about 50% of India's remittances, providing a unique contribution compared to the usual country-specific or regional focus in existing literature. Finally, leveraging these findings, NITI Aayog, an organisation dedicated to achieving India's sustainable development goals, can effectively monitor macroeconomic indicators related to significant remittance-sending countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is an introduction to a special issue of the Journal of Labor Economics that honors the research contributions of David Card, a prominent labor economist. The document highlights Card's significant contributions to various topics, including minimum wages, immigration, education, training programs, unions, and wage inequality. It also acknowledges Card's role in graduate education and his dedication to mentoring PhD students. The special issue includes papers that showcase the diversity of Card's interests and the broad scope of his advising. The papers cover topics such as industry wage differentials, gentrification, teacher salaries, online education, student debt relief, caregiving and labor supply, cesarean sections, minimum wages, and the labor market integration of refugees. The document concludes by acknowledging the support and contributions of various institutions and individuals in making this tribute possible. [Extracted from the article]

This paper has two purposes. The first is to argue that aggregate investment may be subject to the following paradox. A rise in investment decided by firms to correct overutilization of their production capacity may generate less capacity than demand — and hence cause a paradoxical rise in overutilization. This will in turn lead to even more investment, and so on — the result being the self-sustained rises in output that characterize economic expansions. The second purpose of the paper is to put forward one reason why the above paradox of investment will lose strength as expansions progress, and may eventually disappear leading to their end. That reason may be summarized as follows. As net investment increases along expansions, the effect of investment on production capacity rises relative to its effect on demand — and, as a result, the rise in utilization slows down. Moreover, as net investment eventually grows to a high level, the effect of investment on capacity may become bigger than its effect on demand. If this happens, utilization will stop rising and start falling, and thus the same may happen with investment and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial government to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government revenue and the countercyclical effect on student demand by utilizing an economic regression model composed of three equations. Our panel data include the total real operating grant paid to all universities within a province, total student enrolment, real per capita government revenue, and real per capita gross domestic product for Canada's ten provinces over the 1992–2019 sample period. The results confirm that real per capita government revenues are procyclical and that full-time equivalent student enrolments are counter-cyclical. The total real operating grant is only weakly associated with cyclical changes in provincial government revenue. Instead, the total real operating grant is mainly determined by countercyclical changes in student demand. This partially offsets the potential reduction in funding to universities during an economic downturn. Provincial governments in Canada can smooth the total allocation over the business cycle by adjusting other expenditures and using debt financing. Our results suggest they do this to some extent, but not enough to avoid a net reduction in real operating grants during an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]